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August 2015

Ironman Mont Tremblant 2015 (Aug 16th) – Predictions

IMMtLogoA number of these athletes are also on the start list for Timberman on the same day, so there’s going to be a number of changes to these lists.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2012 Romain Guillaume (FRA) 08:40:48 Jessie Donavan (USA) 09:30:46
2013 Luke Bell (AUS) 08:26:06 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 09:07:56
2014 TJ Tollakson (USA) 08:16:17 Sara Gross (CAN) 09:40:26

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 TJ Tollakson USA 00:49:43 04:26:55 02:54:21 08:16:17
2 Daniel Halksworth GBR 00:49:37 04:43:04 02:57:38 08:35:15
3 Andreas Raelert GER 00:49:38 04:34:38 03:08:59 08:38:31

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Sara Gross CAN 00:58:42 05:28:14 03:07:33 09:40:26
2 Amber Ferreira USA 00:58:40 05:19:58 03:18:33 09:43:46
3 Beth Shutt USA 01:03:21 05:21:16 03:15:12 09:46:45

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:16:17 TJ Tollakson 2014-08-17
Swim overall 00:47:45 Brandon Marsh 2013-08-18
Bike overall 04:26:55 TJ Tollakson 2014-08-17
Run overall 02:52:20 Stefan Schmid 2013-08-18
Total female 09:07:56 Mary Beth Ellis 2013-08-18
Swim female 00:49:22 Haley Chura 2013-08-18
Bike female 04:58:18 Mary Beth Ellis 2013-08-18
Run female 03:03:45 Kim Schwabenbauer 2013-08-18

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Mont Tremblant is 07:08.

Race Adjustments for IM Mont Tremblant

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2012 09:41 -01:09 05:55 04:40 12 09:41 -01:09 05:55 04:40
2013 04:17 -00:35 03:13 04:09 32 06:59 -00:52 04:34 04:24
2014 07:25 -01:36 02:08 05:11 14 07:08 -01:07 03:46 04:40

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Mont Tremblant is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 100.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 3 Jordan Rapp USA 08:19:12 08:31:06 00:52:51 04:26:52 02:54:30 21
2 1 Viktor Zyemtsev USA 08:30:16 08:35:16 00:52:12 04:42:54 02:50:10 35
3 2 Lionel Sanders CAN 08:31:13 08:48:29 00:56:51 04:25:09 03:04:14 (85)
4 5 Justin Daerr USA 08:34:09 08:42:53 00:54:10 04:41:26 02:53:33 60
5 4 Paul Ambrose GBR 08:37:11 08:49:44 00:50:14 04:37:22 03:04:35 89
6 9 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:39:56 08:47:14 00:54:16 04:46:35 02:54:05 77
7 6 Matthew Russell USA 08:40:43 08:51:08 00:58:40 04:40:50 02:56:12 94
8 24 Eric Limkemann USA 08:40:59 08:58:33 00:50:25 04:38:26 03:07:08 (124)
9 21 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 08:44:08 09:14:17 00:54:11 04:46:30 02:58:26 195
10 8 Christophe Bastie FRA 08:50:19 08:54:15 00:55:21 04:40:33 03:09:25 107
11 10 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:53:02 09:08:04 00:55:37 04:43:09 03:09:16 161
12 20 Chad Holderbaum USA 08:57:08 09:24:51 00:55:33 04:49:08 03:07:26 244
13 13 James Chesson USA 09:00:51 09:26:45 00:57:39 04:52:32 03:05:41 (249)
14 19 Nigel Gray CAN 09:04:51 09:15:46 00:55:42 04:48:04 03:16:05 (203)
15 25 Jim Lubinski USA 09:12:10 09:39:59 01:02:39 05:00:52 03:03:39 302
16 27 Brendan Naef CAN 09:13:06 09:35:03 00:58:56 05:00:36 03:08:34 284
17 28 Patrick Wheeler USA 09:15:18 09:30:36 00:57:32 05:06:03 03:06:43 260
18 26 Douglas MacLean USA 09:16:05 09:26:20 00:59:03 05:03:23 03:08:39 246
19 23 Peter Kotland CZE 09:52:26 10:03:25 01:00:10 05:10:14 03:37:02 382
12 Patrice Brisindi CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
14 Brian Fleischmann USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
15 Jason Frank USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
17 Pierre-Yves Gigou CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
18 Dylan Gleeson CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
22 Adam Kosmicki USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Lionel Sanders and Viktor Zyemtsev have already secured their Kona slots in July. In addition to them, there is a number of athletes looking to qualify in August:

  • Paul Ambrose (3.095 but already 5 results – might be okay with a Top5, safe with a Top3 result)
  • Matthew Russell (2.540 but 5 results), Jordan Rapp (2.180), Trevor Delsaut (2.065) Justin Daerr (1.840) – they probably need to win for a slot

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 36 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:11:22 09:17:15 00:52:07 05:01:08 03:13:08 9
2 38 Liz Blatchford AUS 09:12:45 09:17:16 00:51:55 05:09:51 03:05:59 10
3 41 Elizabeth Lyles USA 09:17:48 09:29:53 00:58:15 05:12:08 03:02:25 24
4 40 Rebekah Keat AUS 09:18:31 09:24:59 00:54:40 05:08:35 03:10:17 (20)
5 42 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:24:57 09:37:19 01:02:29 05:07:22 03:10:06 44
6 50 Carrie Lester AUS 09:24:59 09:34:13 00:55:49 05:08:13 03:15:58 34
7 54 Lisa Roberts USA 09:28:41 09:34:29 01:05:54 05:14:11 03:03:35 37
8 37 Jessie Donavan USA 09:33:50 09:39:52 01:08:02 05:05:28 03:15:20 47
9 35 Sara Gross CAN 09:33:56 09:53:52 00:57:24 05:21:37 03:09:54 75
10 45 Amber Ferreira USA 09:38:55 09:49:34 00:57:27 05:17:00 03:19:29 66
11 58 Laura Siddall GBR 09:38:59 09:58:31 00:59:41 05:12:15 03:22:04 84
12 61 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:42:25 09:59:46 00:55:45 05:24:27 03:17:13 88
13 39 Jackie Hering USA 09:46:32 09:56:18 00:56:34 05:25:15 03:19:43 80
14 43 Kaitlin Anelauskas USA 09:51:06 10:17:10 00:55:11 05:43:07 03:07:49 (129)
15 44 Anne Basso FRA 10:01:10 10:16:01 01:00:21 05:29:07 03:26:42 125
16 49 Heather Leiggi USA 10:03:08 10:18:55 01:01:29 05:29:40 03:26:59 132
17 46 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:06:05 10:19:16 01:01:56 05:24:12 03:34:58 135
18 55 Molly Roohi USA 10:07:17 10:16:44 01:06:20 05:29:26 03:26:31 127
19 47 Caroline Gregory USA 10:07:58 10:23:16 00:57:00 05:40:40 03:25:17 149
20 53 Tami Ritchie USA 10:10:28 10:35:04 00:53:41 05:40:50 03:30:58 165
21 56 Maggie Rusch USA 10:28:06 10:49:18 01:04:39 05:35:45 03:42:41 (174)
22 57 Robin Sandos USA 10:50:09 11:12:05 01:00:48 05:42:51 04:01:29 (181)
23 51 Caroline Martineau CAN 11:55:14 12:19:22 01:09:10 06:05:34 04:35:29 (183)
48 Carly Johann USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
52 Carrie McCoy USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
59 Caroline St-Pierre CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
60 Kathryn Thomas USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

With Mary Beth Ellis, Liz Blatchford and Liz Lyles the top three seeded are already safe for a Kona slot. A few others might still make it in August with a good result, but each of them already has five results:

  • Sarah Piampiano (4.410 points, probably okay with a Top 5)
  • Jessie Donavan (2.945), Jackie Hering (2.500) – they probably need a win for a slot

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on the previous results, Jordan Rapp is the clear favorite to win Mont Tremblant. He has taken a long time after his DNF in Texas to be in peak shape. Viktor has just won IM Canada in Whistler, he might be a DNF or at least a little tired. Paul Ambrose (DNF), Justin Daerr (3rd) and Matthew Russell (7th) were also racing in Canada:

  • Jordan Rapp: 50% (1-1)
  • Viktor Zyemtsev: 22% (4-1)
  • Paul Ambrose: 13% (7-1)
  • Justin Daerr: 9% (11-1)
  • Matthew Russell: 2% (46-1)
  • Trevor Delsaut: 2% (59-1)

Female Race Participants

With Mary Beth Ellis, Liz Blatchford and Liz Lyles there are three strong Kona contenders looking for their next Ironman win before racing in Kona. Carrie Lester is coming off a second place at Challenge Roth and Jessie Donavan was 6th in Canada. Sara Gross and Rebekah Keat are making a comeback after a long break from racing:

  • Mary Beth Ellis: 34% (2-1)
  • Liz Blatchford: 31% (2-1)
  • Elizabeth Lyles: 11% (8-1)
  • Carrie Lester: 9% (10-1)
  • Sara Gross: 6% (16-1)
  • Rebekah Keat: 5% (19-1)
  • Jessie Donavan: 2% (63-1)

Ironman Sweden 2015 (Aug 15th) – Predictions

IMSweden

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2012 Jan Raphael (GER) 08:04:01 Asa Lundstroem (SWE) 09:13:27
2013 Pedro Gomes (POR) 08:19:30 Jodie Swallow (GBR) 08:54:01
2014 Horst Reichel (GER) 08:13:01 Leanda Cave (GBR) 08:56:50

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Horst Reichel GER 00:49:24 04:29:38 02:51:09 08:13:01
2 Viktor Zyemtsev USA 00:49:38 04:42:22 02:44:18 08:19:17
3 Tom Lowe GBR 00:57:28 04:29:58 02:48:24 08:19:23

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Leanda Cave GBR 00:49:39 04:57:21 03:05:26 08:56:50
2 Erika Csomor HUN 01:00:41 05:16:56 03:07:40 09:30:04
3 Camilla Lindholm SWE 01:09:18 05:08:13 03:10:21 09:31:38

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:04:01 Jan Raphael 2012-08-18
Swim overall 00:48:15 Andi Boecherer 2012-08-18
Bike overall 04:24:20 Karl-Johan Danielsson 2012-08-18
Run overall 02:44:18 Viktor Zyemtsev 2014-08-16
Total female 08:54:01 Jodie Swallow 2013-08-17
Swim female 00:48:30 Jodie Swallow 2013-08-17
Bike female 04:48:42 Helene Malmkvist 2012-08-18
Run female 03:05:26 Leanda Cave 2014-08-16

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Sweden is 19:51.

Race Adjustments for IM Sweden

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2012 31:13 00:09 23:11 05:59 25 31:13 00:09 23:11 05:59
2013 13:40 -00:11 08:46 07:37 24 22:27 -00:01 15:59 06:48
2014 14:38 -00:47 06:32 07:06 18 19:51 -00:16 12:50 06:54

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Sweden is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Patrik Nilsson SWE 08:16:34 08:40:33 00:48:22 04:28:21 02:54:51 52
2 19 Dougal Allan NZL 08:18:53 08:53:19 01:03:28 04:19:07 02:51:18 (100)
3 2 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:25:07 08:52:43 00:50:10 04:34:12 02:55:45 99
4 3 Domenico Passuello ITA 08:26:06 08:51:29 00:55:09 04:29:50 02:56:07 96
5 4 Mauro Baertsch SUI 08:34:29 09:10:33 00:54:30 04:39:33 02:55:26 175
6 6 David Naesvik SWE 08:37:00 09:07:25 00:54:20 04:33:34 03:04:06 156
7 8 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 08:44:00 09:20:24 00:49:01 04:34:33 03:15:25 220
8 7 Cedric Lassonde FRA 08:44:01 09:15:37 00:54:56 04:37:40 03:06:25 (199)
9 20 Nicolas Hemet FRA 08:45:40 09:08:54 00:56:04 04:37:27 03:07:09 168
10 11 Johan Borg AUS 08:57:14 09:23:43 00:56:36 04:45:45 03:09:53 236
11 21 Luke Dragstra CAN 09:08:47 09:21:31 00:53:12 04:48:04 03:22:31 228
12 9 Ivan Jezko SVK 09:11:29 09:43:40 00:59:58 04:50:15 03:16:16 314
13 10 Lukas Polan CZE 09:28:58 10:07:42 01:03:46 04:54:57 03:25:15 401
14 16 Nis Lind DEN 09:33:49 10:05:45 01:01:16 04:57:20 03:30:12 394
15 14 Michal Jalovecky CZE 10:08:45 10:44:41 01:01:20 05:42:20 03:20:06 (478)
16 13 Mathias Nagel GER 14:36:20 15:28:03 01:55:58 06:37:32 05:57:50 (495)
17 12 Frederik Flagstad GRL 15:05:43 15:59:10 01:19:07 07:54:38 05:46:58 (495)
  5 Allan Steen Olesen DEN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
  18 Andreas Linden SWE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 55 Erika Csomor HUN 09:14:20 09:31:59 00:59:09 05:01:21 03:08:51 29
2 52 Astrid Stienen GER 09:22:26 09:44:36 00:59:15 05:01:13 03:16:58 53
3 54 Camilla Lindholm SWE 09:27:02 10:07:08 01:09:05 05:01:20 03:11:37 108
4 57 Evi Neuscheler GER 09:28:52 09:54:16 01:03:19 04:59:36 03:20:57 76
5 53 Mette Pettersen Moe NOR 09:32:08 10:01:39 00:53:06 05:03:21 03:30:41 (93)
6 58 Charisa Wernick USA 09:36:46 10:03:51 00:59:47 05:18:04 03:13:55 99
7 56 Jocelyn McCauley USA 09:42:17 10:10:33 00:59:39 05:15:32 03:22:06 (115)
8 59 Emma Graaf SWE 09:47:58 10:19:00 00:59:44 05:11:45 03:31:28 133

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Patrik Nilsson has declined his Kona slot in order to focus on a winning his home race – he is the favorite to win. But there are a few athletes that will make things hard for Patrik, among them Dougal Allen (3rd and 2nd at Challenge Wanaka) and Guilherme Manocchio and Domenico Passuello who are looking for KPR points to qualify in August.

  • Patrik Nilsson: 37% (2-1)
  • Dougal Allan: 22% (4-1)
  • Guilherme Manocchio: 18% (4-1)
  • Domenico Passuello: 14% (6-1)
  • Mauro Baertsch: 4% (24-1)
  • David Naesvik: 3% (29-1)

Female Race Participants

Last year’s second place Erika Csomor will try to improve last year’s result. Astrid Stienen is looking for some more Kona points and would love to contend at least for the podium. 

  • Erika Csomor: 57% (1-1)
  • Astrid Stienen: 19% (4-1)
  • Camilla Lindholm: 19% (4-1)
  • Charisa Wernick: 2% (47-1)
  • Evi Neuscheler: 2% (61-1)

Ironman Netherlands 2015 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

With an adjustment of -7:45, Maastricht seems to be a pretty slow course: After a “normal” swim, the bike was slow and also seemed to take a lot out of athlete’s legs for the run.

Male Race Results

Bas Diederen had a solid day, the best bike and run allowed him to win the race by eight minutes over countryman Mark Oude Bennink. Third place went to Alberto Casadei who scored 1280 more Kona points, but his new score of 3.065 is probably not enough for an August slot.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Bas Diederen NED 00:46:22 04:43:33 02:51:59 08:27:18 -04:08 US$ 5000
2 Mark Oude Bennink NED 00:46:19 04:48:30 02:54:58 08:35:15 -35:59 US$ 2750
3 Alberto Casadei ITA 00:46:20 04:51:50 02:54:34 08:38:04 -21:59 US$ 1750
4 Tim Brydenbach BEL 00:46:24 04:51:46 02:57:22 08:40:38 n/a US$ 1250
5 Matic Modic SLO 00:53:12 04:47:19 02:57:59 08:44:11 -32:00 US$ 1000
6 Cyril Viennot FRA 00:51:45 04:52:58 03:10:46 09:01:06 20:02 US$ 750
7 Xavier Torrades ESP 00:46:52 05:03:19 03:06:46 09:02:01 n/a  
8 Remy Vasseur NED 00:53:15 05:01:01 03:02:32 09:02:18 -21:50  
9 Mike Schifferle SUI 00:58:28 04:54:46 03:02:08 09:04:03 -06:23  
10 Hannes Cool BEL 00:51:43 04:58:06 03:08:50 09:04:44 -16:24  
11 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 00:51:47 05:02:40 03:14:03 09:14:11 06:47  
12 Rinus Holvoet BEL 00:53:07 04:59:55 03:16:05 09:17:19 -10:05  
13 Urs Mueller SWI 00:55:27 05:01:48 03:25:52 09:28:51 -02:39  
14 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 00:56:37 05:09:07 03:21:23 09:33:35 -00:23  
15 Emanuele Ciotti ITA 00:53:31 05:13:52 03:33:30 09:48:02 n/a  
16 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 01:03:31 05:27:33 03:42:50 10:22:14 09:52  
17 Josef Svoboda CZE 01:11:47 06:29:56 04:46:52 12:41:33 42:57  
18 Mathias Nagel GER 01:27:29 06:10:44 05:48:26 13:36:22 -1:36:07  
19 Wouter Duinisveld NED 01:15:35 06:37:45 05:39:08 13:50:21 n/a  
  Martijn Dekker NED 00:46:17 04:54:59   DNF  
  Bart Candel NED 00:55:29 04:59:51   DNF  
  Frederic Schaffner FRA 00:55:05 05:00:24   DNF  
  Joerie Vansteelant BEL 00:59:01 05:00:17   DNF  
  Thomas Kaiser GER 00:55:57 05:21:02   DNF  
  Cedric Largajolli FRA 00:58:57 05:18:20   DNF  
  Andreas Thissen GER 01:26:01     DNF  

Female Race Results

Yvonne Van Vlerken won her “home race”, but after a good swim she was a bit slower than normal – probably a sign of how tired she was after winning Challenge Roth four weeks ago. Second and third place went to two more Dutch girls, Sarissa De Vries and Carla Van Rooijen. 

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 00:56:26 05:16:10 03:21:17 09:39:24 17:59 US$ 5000
2 Sarissa De Vries NED 00:52:24 05:25:23 03:34:10 09:58:44 n/a US$ 2750
3 Carla Van Rooijen NED 01:09:18 05:32:16 03:16:20 10:04:38 -29:22 US$ 1750
4 Carolin Lehrieder GER 00:56:21 05:52:11 03:25:34 10:19:57 21:23 US$ 1250
5 Irene Kinnegim NED 01:09:28 05:49:40 03:26:29 10:34:46 17:58 US$ 1000
6 Maria Lemeseva RUS 01:08:21 05:42:31 03:40:37 10:40:04 21:54 US$ 750
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