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2016

Ironman Texas 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

The shortened bike course makes a comparison with other Texas races very hard and I won’t consider this year’s results for my ratings or for course records. Linearly scaling the bike times from 94 to 112 miles doesn’t yield valid “full-distance times” – race times that are shorter by roughly 40 minutes create a different race dynamic. Nonetheless, I have analyzed the scaled race splits in the same way as for a “valid” IM. The splits are colored accordingly and a “diff to expected” is shown to indicate on how good some times have been. Of course all this analysis has to be taken with a grain of salt, but here are a few additional observations:

  • The male winning time by Patrick Lange would correspond to a sub-8 time, the female winning time by Julia Gajer to a sub-9 finish.
  • The last minute changes to the swim course didn’t have a major influence on the swim times – a swim adjustment of -1:39 is almost exactly the Texas average of -1:27.
  • Lauren Brandon had the fastest swim overall. (This is the first time that a female had the fastest swim since Sweden 2013, when Jodie Swallow lead the field.)
  • Most reports indicate that the new bike course wasn’t quite as hard to follow as anticipated, but there were a few tricky sections and also some car traffic on the course. Andy Starykowicz’s fastest bike time would roughly correspond to a 4:04 – very fast, but “almost normal” for Andy. Looking at the whole field, the bike times were quite comparable to the times we have seen in earlier years, maybe they would have been quicker by four to five minutes than in the past.
  • With the shortened bike course I also expected quicker run times. Some athletes had great runs – Patrick Lange’s winning marathon of 2:40:01 would have broken Matt Hanson’s course record, and there were two sub-3 runs in the women’s field by Lisa Roberts (3rd, fastest run split of 2:59:03) and Jodie Robertson (2nd). But we’ve also seen some “explosions” on the run: In addition to Andy Starykowicz who DNF’d, Lauren Brandon just broke four hours and Matt Hanson had to walk after running himself into 3rd place – eventually finishing 23rd. The adjustment would have been similar to what we’ve seen in Texas in the last few years.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Patrick Lange GER 00:48:57 03:39:28 02:40:01 07:13:13 n/a US$ 30000
2 Matthew Russell USA 00:56:41 03:31:47 02:48:14 07:21:56 -34:13 US$ 15000
3 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 00:48:59 03:39:27 02:52:53 07:25:55 -15:36 US$ 8000
4 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 00:48:51 03:39:55 02:55:07 07:28:30 -19:38 US$ 6500
5 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 00:48:43 03:44:42 02:51:53 07:30:59 -02:24 US$ 5000
6 Justin Daerr USA 00:54:16 03:37:28 02:54:56 07:31:39 -22:18 US$ 3500
7 Chris McDonald AUS 00:55:59 03:32:30 02:59:55 07:33:08 -23:12 US$ 2500
8 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 00:55:20 03:33:16 03:00:29 07:34:01 -41:55 US$ 2000
9 Matic Modic SLO 00:56:48 03:40:53 02:52:18 07:35:08 -32:12 US$ 1500
10 Callum Millward NZL 00:51:02 03:38:32 03:01:15 07:36:23 01:37 US$ 1000
11 Barrett Brandon USA 00:48:45 03:40:02 03:06:38 07:40:37 -07:34  
12 Antony Costes FRA 00:48:55 03:39:50 03:08:56 07:42:03 -19:45  
13 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:49:31 03:38:37 03:09:23 07:42:41 11:02  
14 Michael Ruenz GER 00:56:40 03:42:15 02:58:28 07:42:50 -12:14  
15 Mauro Baertsch SUI 00:56:24 03:44:02 02:59:26 07:45:31 -15:42  
16 Francisco Serrano MEX 00:53:40 03:40:18 03:07:17 07:45:46 -16:06  
17 Eric Limkemann USA 00:49:54 03:38:37 03:15:00 07:48:42 01:50  
18 Samuel Huerzeler SUI 00:54:33 03:42:19 03:10:29 07:53:56 -22:45  
19 Matthew Curbeau USA 00:56:44 03:44:06 03:08:10 07:54:32 -32:58  
20 Jordan Rapp USA 00:54:25 03:33:47 03:22:01 07:55:18 17:55  
21 Jaroslav Kovacic SLO 00:49:02 03:43:02 03:21:41 07:59:12 -06:30  
22 Richie Cunningham AUS 00:53:40 03:46:17 03:14:35 08:00:17 22:01  
23 Matt Hanson USA 00:54:24 03:40:33 03:27:58 08:07:07 20:04  
24 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 00:54:27 03:33:15 03:37:56 08:11:30 18:20  
25 Douglas MacLean USA 00:56:54 03:55:57 03:14:45 08:16:04 -08:28  
26 Jozsef Major HUN 01:02:47 03:53:15 03:14:24 08:16:36 16:13  
27 Patrick Jaberg SUI 00:56:37 03:43:35 03:33:52 08:19:33 13:14  
28 Patrick Schuster USA 01:07:40 03:48:29 03:21:36 08:23:50 -19:05  
29 Denis Sketako SLO 00:56:34 03:55:54 03:28:54 08:26:09 15:05  
30 Andres Darricau Arg 00:56:27 03:52:25 03:44:58 08:39:51 01:45  
31 Mike Schifferle SUI 01:04:39 03:44:13 03:44:27 08:42:07 33:35  
32 Jonathan Fecik USA 00:56:33 03:55:45 03:50:27 08:48:40 -08:51  
33 Aaron Gray USA 00:56:31 03:55:18 04:54:59 09:53:08 n/a  
34 Scott Neyedli GBR 00:53:58 03:55:03 05:26:34 10:22:40 1:27:54  
  Andrew Starykowicz USA 00:48:51 03:24:44   DNF    
  Harry Wiltshire GBR 00:48:48 03:39:54   DNF    
  Swen Sundberg GER 00:54:31 03:34:18   DNF    
  Nils Frommhold GER 00:49:09 03:44:11   DNF    
  Jonathan Shearon USA 00:56:43 03:45:00   DNF    
  Pedro Gomes POR 00:53:55 03:49:40   DNF    
  Michael Weiss AUT 00:56:30 03:49:30   DNF    
  Trevor Delsaut FRA 00:55:23 04:04:04   DNF    
  Balazs Csoke HUN 00:48:54 04:11:25   DNF    
  AJ Baucco USA 00:53:54     DNF    

As the winner of the North American Regional championship Patrick Lange receives an Automatic Qualifier spot. Matt Russell and Terenzo Bozzone now have enough points to be safe for a July slot. Eneko Llanos hasn’t added too many points with his 13th place finish, but he validated his slot and is also safe now. Callum Millward is on the bubble, at 3.580 points he’s right at my projected cutoff of 3.500 points. He already has five results (his worst is 435 points), so it won’t be easy to improve his total. Jeremy Juekiewicz has 2.530 points (but only one IM and one 70.3 race), so he should be able to add some more points if he wants to qualify.

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Julia Gajer GER 00:54:51 04:01:44 03:08:49 08:11:01 -09:39 US$ 30000
2 Jodie Robertson USA 01:07:21 04:01:55 02:59:26 08:16:30 n/a US$ 15000
3 Lisa Roberts USA 01:06:52 04:06:18 02:59:03 08:17:58 -16:40 US$ 8000
4 Kelly Williamson USA 00:54:49 04:17:11 03:04:33 08:22:06 -08:51 US$ 6500
5 Alicia Kaye USA 00:52:24 04:07:15 03:23:31 08:29:29 n/a US$ 5000
6 Christine Hammond USA 00:55:07 04:13:02 03:18:57 08:32:37 -25:54 US$ 3500
7 Jessica Meyers USA 00:57:51 04:10:34 03:24:42 08:39:11 -20:44 US$ 2500
8 Emma-Kate Lidbury GBR 00:55:13 04:09:01 03:34:03 08:45:13 07:25 US$ 2000
9 Katy Blakemore USA 00:54:33 04:16:30 03:29:52 08:46:22 02:07 US$ 1500
10 Jocelyn McCauley USA 00:57:31 04:02:20 03:41:32 08:47:09 -14:01 US$ 1000
11 Heather Leiggi USA 01:07:01 04:03:20 03:31:48 08:48:13 -22:05  
12 Lauren Brandon USA 00:48:32 04:02:16 03:56:38 08:52:48 n/a  
13 Christine Fletcher CAN 01:02:22 04:09:37 03:33:11 08:53:14 -18:20  
14 Bree Wee USA 00:57:46 04:10:44 03:55:47 09:10:38 26:42  
15 Amy Javens USA 01:12:22 04:02:53 03:50:17 09:12:38 -06:53  
16 Terry Casey USA 01:02:18 04:20:30 04:14:59 09:47:43 -02:48  
17 Caroline Martineau CAN 01:06:58 04:21:07 04:14:51 09:51:37 19:00  
18 Carrie Mccoy USA 01:30:20 04:25:08 03:50:39 09:53:57 n/a  
19 Jen Annett CAN 01:02:54 03:59:39 04:50:02 09:57:53 54:57  
20 Angela Kuehnlein GER 01:07:03 04:25:44 04:19:14 09:58:50 37:47  
  Rebekah Keat AUS 00:53:40 04:05:48   DNF    
  Kirsty Jahn CAN 01:02:15 04:04:21   DNF    
  Darbi Roberts USA 00:54:20 04:16:05   DNF    
  Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 00:57:43 04:16:36   DNF    
  Liz Baugher USA 00:58:20 04:35:48   DNF    

After Kaisa Lehtonen as winner of IM South Africa, Julia Gajer is the second European Automatic Qualifier this year. Julia has raced an amazingly stable race, almost exactly hitting her predicted times, so even if her individual legs were in line with what could be expected, her overall time was a good deal quicker. Lisa Roberts also had a great race. She is well ahead of the projected cutoff of 4.500 points and safe for a July slot. Alicia Kaye has scored well, but needs to add to her 4.340 points if she wants to qualify – another good 70.3 result should be enough for her. Jodie Robertson (3.960) and Emma-Kate Lidbury (3.695, but already 5 results) have to plan how to best get the remaining points needed.

Ironman Lanzarote 2016 (May 21st) – Predictions

IMLanza Update May 13th: According to her blog, Jeanne Collonge won’t be able to race, she’s targeting IM France now. Also there are a number of athletes on the startlist for IM Texas, so we may see some late withdrawals in the days before the race.

Update May 18th: According BMC-Etixx Sports Director Ben De Wolf Romain Guillaume won’t start in Lanzarote but is focusing on IM Cairns instead.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Ain-Alar Juhanson (EST) 08:55:38 Virginia Berasategui (ESP) 10:09:40
2006 Ain-Alar Juhanson (EST) 08:54:14 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:52:45
2007 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:49:39 Tiina Boman (FIN) 09:58:42
2008 Bert Jammaer (BEL) 08:59:40 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 10:02:30
2009 Bert Jammaer (BEL) 08:54:03 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:54:58
2010 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:37:43 Catriona Morrison (GBR) 10:03:53
2011 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:30:34 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 09:28:12
2012 Victor Del Corral (ESP) 08:44:39 Michelle Vesterby (DEN) 09:58:06
2013 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:42:40 Kristin Moeller (GER) 09:37:34
2014 Romain Guillaume (FRA) 08:47:39 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 09:41:40
2015 Alessandro Degasperi (ITA) 08:56:49 Diana Riesler (GER) 09:56:03

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 00:51:10 05:12:12 02:47:15 08:56:49
2 Christian Kramer GER 00:48:20 05:05:51 02:59:14 08:59:30
3 Mauro Baertsch SUI 00:52:04 05:10:48 02:54:13 09:04:45

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Diana Riesler GER 00:55:40 05:37:11 03:16:20 09:56:03
2 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 00:53:21 05:58:16 03:15:05 10:13:49
3 Caroline Livesey GBR 00:58:47 05:59:25 03:25:52 10:31:56

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:30:34 Timo Bracht 2011-05-21
Swim overall 00:46:15 Luc Van Lierde 2006-05-20
Bike overall 04:40:58 Maik Twelsiek 2010-05-22
Run overall 02:44:29 Gerrit Schellens 2005-06-04
Total female 09:28:12 Rachel Joyce 2011-05-21
Swim female 00:50:40 Hillary Biscay 2010-05-22
Bike female 05:26:23 Tara Norton 2010-05-22
Run female 02:58:37 Kristin Moeller 2013-05-18

It’s quite unusual that an overall course record race isn’t showing up in any of the individual legs. This shows that – even more than in other races – the winner in Lanzarote has to have a balanced race across all three legs.

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Lanzarote is – 14:36.

Race Adjustments for IM Lanzarote

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 -07:10 02:21 -20:46 01:20 45 -07:10 02:21 -20:46 01:20
2007 -12:01 -01:04 -09:17 -04:09 40 -09:36 00:39 -15:02 -01:24
2008 -13:09 00:47 -18:11 04:48 47 -10:47 00:41 -16:05 00:40
2009 -09:01 -00:08 -14:46 03:52 44 -10:20 00:29 -15:45 01:28
2010 -07:07 01:33 -09:39 00:08 34 -09:42 00:42 -14:32 01:12
2011 -08:23 02:22 -16:18 05:15 23 -09:29 00:59 -14:50 01:52
2012 -17:54 00:53 -17:29 04:32 22 -10:41 00:58 -15:12 02:15
2013 -19:06 00:22 -19:39 03:19 19 of 31 -11:44 00:53 -15:46 02:23
2014 -23:49 00:50 -18:18 -01:38 37 of 56 -13:04 00:53 -16:03 01:56
2015 -28:18 01:14 -31:00 00:13 29 of 44 -14:36 00:55 -17:32 01:46

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Lanzarote is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Jan Frodeno GER 08:21:26 08:07:22 00:45:38 04:44:00 02:46:47 71% +29% -0% (4) 1
2 3 Timo Bracht GER 08:35:27 08:22:49 00:48:12 04:52:21 02:49:54 79% +10% -10% (25) 8
3 5 Ivan Rana ESP 08:39:56 08:24:55 00:47:12 04:59:39 02:48:05 83% +10% -6% (9) 11
4 6 Jesse Thomas USA 08:43:12 08:39:40 00:49:51 04:53:16 02:55:05 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (55)
5 7 David McNamee GBR 08:45:23 08:27:09 00:47:15 05:03:52 02:49:16 100% +0% -0% (3) 15
6 4 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 08:50:32 08:37:51 00:48:02 05:08:23 02:49:07 90% +10% -0% (11) 46
7 2 Romain Guillaume FRA 08:50:43 08:49:17 00:47:28 04:54:34 03:03:41 54% +24% -22% (26) 82
8 22 Esben Hovgaard DEN 08:52:23 08:49:38 00:52:09 04:58:13 02:57:01 54% +39% -7% (8) 84
9 50 Marc Duelsen GER 08:54:23 08:46:17 00:51:37 04:58:12 02:59:35 60% +0% -40% (6) (75)
10 47 Johann Ackermann GER 08:55:25 08:53:25 00:48:13 04:57:14 03:04:58 36% +0% -64% (5) (98)
11 8 Stephen Bayliss GBR 09:00:56 08:51:07 00:46:58 05:05:00 03:03:58 40% +4% -56% (45) 88
12 35 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 09:01:58 08:53:11 00:51:48 05:02:42 03:02:28 89% +11% -0% (5) 96
13 9 Nicholas Ward Munoz GBR 09:05:47 08:54:53 00:53:13 05:10:15 02:57:19 45% +16% -39% (16) (102)
14 45 Harry Wiltshire GBR 09:07:50 08:53:24 00:47:08 05:08:47 03:06:56 26% +32% -42% (14) 97
15 24 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 09:08:15 09:03:40 00:50:14 04:55:07 03:17:55 16% +40% -44% (8) 133
16 44 Graeme Stewart GBR 09:11:38 09:01:49 00:54:18 05:05:37 03:06:43 56% +20% -25% (10) 124
17 34 Carlos Lopez Diaz ESP 09:11:47 09:00:05 00:46:48 05:09:23 03:10:37 38% +19% -44% (5) 119
18 39 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 09:15:33 09:01:02 00:48:23 05:14:42 03:07:29 83% +5% -11% (25) 121
19 36 Mikita Hryhoryeu POL 09:16:41 09:12:56 00:50:11 05:18:33 03:02:58 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (177)
20 48 Marcel Bischof GER 09:21:51 09:17:21 00:55:51 05:13:16 03:07:44 77% +23% -0% (12) 190
21 43 Harry Springall GBR 09:22:34 09:18:46 00:53:33 05:02:53 03:21:09 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (194)
22 49 Roman Deisenhofer GER 09:24:53 09:15:28 00:52:25 05:09:18 03:18:11 59% +41% -0% (3) 186
23 30 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:32:34 09:34:05 00:56:42 05:08:07 03:22:45 50% +48% -2% (13) (230)
24 21 Till Schramm GER 09:34:15 09:38:23 00:56:11 05:11:38 03:21:26 9% +14% -77% (5) 242
25 46 Craig Twigg GBR 09:40:05 09:53:38 00:51:57 05:05:19 03:37:49 3% +21% -76% (12) 263
26 23 Marcus Hultgren SWE 09:43:23 09:35:12 00:56:58 05:24:10 03:17:15 64% +36% -0% (3) 234
27 32 Enric Gussinyer ESP 09:46:21 09:31:00 00:50:55 05:17:01 03:33:24 86% +0% -14% (6) 223
28 26 Michael Louys BEL 09:46:54 09:42:38 01:00:58 05:20:22 03:20:34 42% +19% -39% (6) 247
29 29 John Manuel Galindo Rooney ESP 09:47:41 09:43:39 00:51:33 05:23:47 03:27:22 37% +63% -0% (2) (250)
30 41 Gilian Oriet SUI 10:02:59 10:05:22 00:56:53 05:29:07 03:31:59 12% +14% -74% (8) (275)
31 51 Armin Atzlinger AUT 10:08:16 10:04:10 00:53:53 05:38:17 03:31:06 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (275)
32 52 Christopher Baird USA 11:52:35 11:47:47 01:03:06 06:54:19 03:50:10 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (300)
33 38 Marek Nemcik SVK 12:04:20 12:16:25 01:11:17 06:12:24 04:35:39 32% +23% -45% (32) 301
25 Jim Thijs BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
27 Diego Van Looy BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
28 Rob Bobbaers BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
31 Francisco Fernandez Cortes ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
33 Rayco Marrero Avero ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
37 Alen Kralj SVN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
40 Frederic Garcia FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
42 Dominic Rohan-Gates GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (2) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 10 Diana Riesler GER 09:39:22 09:26:27 00:56:36 05:20:49 03:16:57 55% +17% -28% (17) 22
2 17 Alexandra Tondeur BEL 10:03:56 09:59:52 00:56:57 05:45:30 03:16:29 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (90)
3 14 Jeanne Collonge FRA 10:04:03 10:08:28 00:56:59 05:35:55 03:26:09 21% +16% -63% (9) (105)
4 13 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 10:10:37 10:11:01 00:54:22 05:46:04 03:25:11 53% +47% -0% (8) 110
5 11 Caroline Livesey GBR 10:14:26 10:06:27 00:59:57 05:43:45 03:25:44 70% +0% -30% (4) 101
6 15 Tine Holst DEN 10:15:55 10:06:09 01:04:09 05:39:07 03:27:39 89% +11% -0% (10) 100
7 20 Jocelyn Mccauley USA 10:20:49 10:22:47 00:58:21 05:50:13 03:27:16 41% +0% -59% (4) (139)
8 18 Nicole Woysch GER 10:34:38 10:48:03 00:57:23 05:48:58 03:43:17 26% +4% -70% (20) (177)
9 19 Alyssa Godesky USA 10:35:03 10:29:50 01:00:55 05:56:47 03:32:21 54% +23% -23% (10) 160
10 12 Anne Jensen DEN 10:36:48 10:30:47 01:08:01 05:42:00 03:41:47 65% +0% -35% (3) 164
16 Lucy Charles GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on the raw numbers, current Kona champion Jan Frodeno is the clear favorite to win the race – he’s got the best swim, bike and run ratings of the whole field. But he’s had a calf injury that forced him to skip IM South Africa and his main focus for Lanzarote will be to validate his automatic qualifier Kona slot, so maybe there is a chance for the other athletes. Timo Bracht would be the favorite in almost any other field, he’s focused on getting the points he needs to qualify for Kona – for him that would mean a Top 3. (Timo currently has 2.320 points.) David McNamee (3.310), Ivan Rana (3.025) and Jesse Thomas (2.545) need to finish just outside the Top 3 to secure a July slot, while Romain Guillaume (1.470) would have to win to punch his Kona ticket.

  • Jan Frodeno: 43% (1-1)
  • Timo Bracht: 34% (2-1)
  • Ivan Rana: 11% (8-1)
  • Romain Guillaume: 3% (29-1)
  • Jesse Thomas: 3% (32-1)
  • David McNamee: 2% (39-1)

Female Race Participants

2015 Lanzarote champion Diana Riesler is the clear favorite to defend her title – and she will need the points to have a shot at July qualifying after her DNF in Kona. The athlete with the most KPR points is Tine Holst (3.185), she’ll need at least a Top3 for a July slot. The next best in the KPR are Alexandra Tondeur (2.630), Saleta Castro (1.375) and Caroline Livesay (1.150) who need a great performance in Lanzarote to keep their Kona chances alive.

  • Diana Riesler: 72% (1-1)
  • Jeanne Collonge: 8% (12-1)
  • Saleta Castro Nogueira: 7% (13-1)
  • Tine Holst: 5% (18-1)
  • Caroline Livesey: 4% (22-1)
  • Alexandra Tondeur: 2% (44-1)

With Lucy Charles there is an interesting new Pro female in the field. Lucy was the fastest female amateur in Kona 2015, and her swim time of 52:20 was a whopping 2:44 than Jodie Swallow’s best Pro swim time. While we can expect Lucy to lead after the swim, she’ll need to step up her bike and run (5:38 and 3:44 in Kona) to hold on to the lead. But she’ll be a factor in the Top 5 for sure, and maybe even for the podium.

Challenge Taiwan 2016 (May 7th) – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

When Challenge Taiwan was raced in 2013 and 2014, it was a pretty quick course, especially on the bike. After taking a breather in 2015, the race was back this year and has been quite a bit slower than in the past. I’m not sure if there have been course changes or if the weather was exceptionally hot this year – in any case the bike was roughly four minutes slower and the run about 12 minutes.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:51:56 04:33:57 02:59:10 08:30:28 -15:18 EUR 8000
2 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:45:35 04:35:19 03:21:31 08:48:37 -05:06 EUR 5000
3 Patrick Evoe USA 00:54:22 04:28:55 03:26:35 08:55:56 -05:25 EUR 3500
4 Till Schramm GER 00:58:38 04:55:01 03:46:23 09:46:59 25:22 EUR 2500
5 Petr Vabrousek CZE 00:58:44 05:02:44 03:51:14 10:02:39 57:48 EUR 2000
6 Tomas Racek CZE 01:06:07 06:16:09 06:35:34 14:20:04 n/a  

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Shiao-yu Li TWN 01:01:07 05:00:43 03:31:31 09:40:05 -25:24 EUR 8000
2 Jessica Fleming AUS 01:00:50 05:03:33 03:38:22 09:48:48 -03:56 EUR 5000
3 Kathryn Haesner NZL 00:57:07 05:14:49 03:31:04 09:49:33 xx:-21:08 EUR 3500
4 Vanessa Murray NZL 00:55:38 05:18:09 03:33:39 09:54:56 02:08 EUR 2500
5 Marina Jurjevic AUS 01:11:04 05:25:03 04:08:15 10:51:38 34:48 EUR 2000
6 Kathrin Walther GER 01:00:44 05:26:41 04:52:20 11:28:31 1:20:20  

Germans at IM Texas – Julia Gajer and Nils Frommhold

ErdingerEven though I don’t drink any beer myself, I know that beer is taken very seriously in Texas. In addition to “Shiner Bock” there are a lot of micro-breweries putting out their product, and while the alcohol content of around 8% makes the calorie count pretty high, a lot of triathletes enjoy a nice beer after a hard training session .. or just to relax.

Of course Germans take pride in their beer as well, and breweries sponsor a lot of big sporting events and teams. In the last few years, the German brewery “Erdinger” has supported an Endurance Team consisting mainly of German athletes such as the Raelert Brothers and a few internationals like Eva Wutti or Lucy Gossage. The name of the team – “Erdinger Alkoholfrei Endurance Team” – indicates that the main product they are highlighting is an alcohol-free version of their “Weizen” or wheat beer. Most who have tried it like it as a refreshing, mineral-rich hydration after a long, hard session (or race).

With Julia Gajer and Nils Frommhold two Erdinger athletes will be racing at Texas on May 14th. There are a lot of similarities between these athletes: Both have won IM Arizona (Nils in 2012, Julia in 2013), were 6th in Kona 2014, are coached by Wolfram Bott, had great results in the 2015 summer – but had disappointing races in Kona. Both are looking to score the points needed for a Kona slot but are also serious contenders for the win.

Nils Frommhold

After finishing 6th in Kona 2014, Nils validated his 2015 Kona slot in the Regional Championship in Melbourne in March. With Luke Bell he built an 11-minute lead into to T2 and was in the lead until about 30k into the run when he started to struggle. He still managed to finish in fifth place. While not satisfied with the result and the frustrating end to his race day, it allowed him to focus on doing well at Challenge Roth in the summer.

For German athletes winning in Roth is the next best thing to winning in Kona. There is a fierce competition between Ironman Germany in Frankfurt and Challenge Roth for the “most important” German race – usually Frankfurt draws a deeper field as a Regional Championship, but Roth consistently has the faster times and always has at least a handful of “big names”. Nils had raced Roth in 2014, finishing second only to Timo Bracht and barely missing the 8-hour mark. Winning Roth has always been one of his goals, and he delivered a fantastic race: While Andy Starykowicz tried to race away from the rest of the field, Nils matched his pace and when Andy started to struggle towards the end of the bike, Nils was able to build a 2-minute lead into T2. Similar to 2014 Timo Bracht had the best marathon, but even his 2:45 was only good enough for second place: Nils had a very solid 2:51 marathon and won Challenge Roth 2015 with a time of 7:51, the third fastest time of all IM-distance races in the whole year.

NilsBikeAfter that career highlight Nils was very motivated for the rest of the season, but he wasn’t able to have a good race after Roth. He raced the 70.3 Championships in Zell am See and was in the second group on the bike. But when he tried to split the group on a climb, he ran out of steam, wasn’t able to put together a decent run and dropped back to 22nd place. To prepare for Kona he went to the heat of The Woodlands, Texas, with his coach Wolfram Bott and a number of other athletes. He felt the training went well and was looking forward to race well in Kona. He was in a good position after the swim but had a flat early in the bike. After a quick fix he tried to race back to the main group but just wasted a lot of energy without making up much ground. He fell back even further on the climb to Hawi, but still went on to finish the race in 29th place.

His 2016 first race also didn’t go according to plan. Nils took the long trip from Europe to race the South American 70.3 Championships in Palmas. He thought a Top 3 was a possible result for him, and was part of a three-men bike lead group, but coming from a long European winter he was not ready for the humidity and heat. Once again he struggled in the latter part of the bike, couldn’t run well off the bike and dropped back to 8th place.

Photo: Nils training on the bike in The Woodlands, Credit: Sarah Fladung

Julia Gajer

While Nils has been coached by Wolfram Bott for a long time, Julia only started to work with Wolfram after her sixth place in Kona 2014. Both Julia and Wolfram were cautious with their expectations for the 2015 season and were mainly focused on 2016. But things went really well from the start: Two second places in 70.3s (behind Daniela Ryf in Mallorca and Camilla Pedersen in Kraichgau) lead to a win at 70.3 Luxemburg. She went on to race well in the Frankfurt heat at IM Germany, finishing second behind a dominating Daniela Ryf but in front of Caroline Steffen. When she finished 6th in the 70.3 Champs without a dedicated preparation, things seemed to be clicking much faster than planned and she had high expectations for Kona.

For Kona 2014 Julia prepared at home in Germany and was a solo traveller to Kona until her parents and husband joined her just for the race. Things were much different for 2015: She prepared in the Texas heat with the Wolfram Bott training group and had a number of obligations after arriving in Kona. She was hoping for a similar result as in 2014, but she knew there were a lot of Top 10 contenders in the race. However, she was not able to fight for a good finish – with bike shoe issues she was never able to put out decent power on the bike and was dropping further and further behind. Shortly after T2 she retired from the race. She was pretty frustrated and after a few days of sightseeing in San Francisco she decided not to end her season quite yet but to race another IM in November.

JuliaBike

Julia prepared in chilly Germany for Arizona which is usually a pretty warm race. The weather in Tempe turned out to be cold and rainy. Julia never really got going, but still managed to place herself in second place on the bike and into T2, but never started to close the gap to Meredith Kessler who was on fire and ended up posting the fastest 2015 Ironman. On the run Julia lost one spot to Amanda Stevens who ran well while Julia slogged through the marathon. When she heard towards the end of the race that her gap to fourth place Darbi Roberts was shrinking she rallied a bit to hold on to the last podium spot. She was relieved that the race and her season was over.

In the off-season Julia moved to Austria (her husband took a new job there) and continued to work on her equipment. With Cervelo as a new bike sponsor she had some more options to further tweak her bike position and is very happy with the new setup. She started her 2016 racing with another cold race: 70.3 Pays d’Aix. Cold winds on race morning lead to a cancelled swim and a time trial start with 20-second gaps. Even with arm and leg warmers it took her 20k on the bike to properly warm up. By then she was more than five minutes behind eventual winner Tine Deckers who had a very strong bike. The rest of the bike went much better and she didn’t have too many problems in the strong cross winds. She was in fourth position in T2, and the fastest run allowed her to claim second place. As it was her first race of the season, she was quite happy with her performance.

Photo: Julia on her new bike while training in Mallorca. Credit: Wolfram Bott

Expectations for Texas

Nils and Julia have almost the same goal for IM Texas: They “just” want to have a solid Ironman race. For both of them that includes a decent swim (i.e. starting the bike in the front group), a steady bike and a solid marathon that puts them in a position to fight for a podium spot in the last 10k of the race. If they manage that, they should also be able to secure their Kona slots.

Nils now sits at 865 KPR points, so if he wants to defend his Roth title in the summer (he is on the start list), he has to get the majority of his qualifying points from a good race in Texas. With the cutoff expected to be at 3.500 points for the men, Nils needs a third place (2.890 points leading to a total of 3.755 points) to be reasonably safe for a July slot. There are also eight to ten athletes that can beat Nils when they have a great day so it is hard to predict where Nils will end up, but with a solid race a podium finish is a reasonable goal for him. If he manages to have a great day, he could even be in a position to win the race, but Nils is a bit anxious to race in the heat. He hopes that with some adjustments he can break his string of sub-standard races in warmer temperatures.

With regards to Kona qualifying, Julia is in a better position than Nils. She already has 3.450 KPR points, so with the cutoff around 4.500 points she’ll be safe for a Kona slot with at least a seventh place (1.335 points) in Texas. Unless she runs into problems in Texas, that’s the base goal for her – if things go well, she’ll be racing for her second Ironman win. After racing twice in cold conditions, Julia looks forward to the Texas heat – with the exception of Kona she has always been racing well in the heat. Her second place at the start of the season was encouraging to her and she very much looks forward to have a good race in Texas.

As for the beer company that sponsors Julia and Nils, it’ll be quite some time before “Erdinger Alkoholfrei” will be a legitimate challenger for the top beer in Texas. Even if they face strong competition at the North American Championships, both Nils and Julia clearly have a much better shot at taking the honors at Ironman Texas.

Ironman Texas 2016 (May 14th) – Predictions

IMTexasLogoUpdate May 8th: Sarah Piampiano announced that she has withdrawn from the race, “teetering on the edge [of injury] and wanting to make sure I stay on the healthy side”. Ray Botelho also won’t be starting.

Update May 11th: Amanda Stevens is another DNS. She posted pictures with her right foot in a cast boot. Rachel Jastrebsky also won’t be able to race.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:08:20 Catriona Morrison (GBR) 08:57:51
2012 Jordan Rapp (USA) 08:10:44 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 08:54:58
2013 Paul Amey (GBR) 08:25:06 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:49:14
2014 Bevan Docherty (NZL) 08:09:37 Kelly Williamson (USA) 08:54:42
2015 Matt Hanson (USA) 08:07:03 Angela Naeth (CAN) 08:55:19

An interesting side note: So far no athlete has been able to win twice in Texas.

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Matt Hanson USA 00:55:02 04:21:25 02:45:47 08:07:03
2 Joe Skipper GBR 00:55:09 04:10:07 03:04:35 08:16:26
3 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:55:07 04:24:27 02:55:54 08:21:03

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Angela Naeth CAN 00:59:35 04:41:38 03:09:13 08:55:19
2 Leanda Cave GBR 00:53:13 04:47:43 03:12:02 08:58:12
3 Rachel Joyce GBR 00:53:08 04:52:35 03:14:00 09:05:02

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:07:03 Matt Hanson 2015-05-16
Swim overall 00:46:20 John Flanagan 2011-05-21
Bike overall 04:10:07 Joe Skipper 2015-05-16
Run overall 02:41:38 Matt Hanson 2014-05-17
Total female 08:49:14 Rachel Joyce 2013-05-18
Swim female 00:51:49 Kelly Williamson 2014-05-17
Bike female 04:40:39 Corinne Abraham 2015-05-16
Run female 02:51:46 Caitlin Snow 2012-05-19

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Texas is 11:20.

Race Adjustments for IM Texas

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 10:52 -02:44 18:09 -01:41 41 10:52 -02:44 18:09 -01:41
2012 12:54 -01:22 15:12 02:45 27 11:53 -02:03 16:40 00:32
2013 07:13 -01:43 15:55 02:23 30 of 46 10:20 -01:56 16:25 01:09
2014 16:45 00:36 16:05 03:51 44 of 55 11:56 -01:18 16:20 01:50
2015 08:56 -01:52 18:23 -03:46 33 of 52 11:20 -01:25 16:45 00:43

Course Changes for 2016

The biggest thing on athlete’s minds is likely the shortened bike course. There is a big construction project on the old bike course and getting sign-off on a new course turned out to be very complicated. For a long time there was no approved bike course and in the absence of any official information rumors spread of the whole race getting cancelled. In addition some strong rain caused flooding in The Woodlands area. This ultimately resulted in a shortened bike course (officially 94 miles instead of 112 miles or roughly 150 km instead of 180) that is also quite complicated. Just looking at the course map can make your head spin. Kona is a very simple bike course, but there are still athletes that make a wrong turn and cut parts of the course (for an example check out my story on Shiao-Yu Li’s Kona in 2015). I just hope that the volunteers help to ensure that all athletes follow the same course. Hopefully the impact of the course on the race results will be limited to a change in race dynamics.

The shortened bike course will result in about 40 to 50 minutes quicker finish times for the Pros. T his will allow athletes to go a bit harder than what would be normal for an Ironman. But of course this is hard to calculate before the race, and overpaying carries the risk of blowing up on the run, especially if things get hot and humid on the run. A well-paced bike ride will also allow for a slightly quicker run than a typical IM, and to win the race you’ll probably have to run sub-2:50 (men) and sub-3 hours for the women in addition to a fast bike. It will be critical to get the pacing right – and no one will have any experience racing these exact distances.

If just linearly scaling the times for the shortened bike (as I have done for my predictions), the impact won’t be very large: The section that is “missing” correspond to roughly three minutes between a fast biker such as Andy Starykowicz and a faster runner (also slower biker compared to Andy) such as Matt Hanson (similar on the female side, comparing Sarah Piampiano and Kelly Williamson). Of course three minutes won’t make a huge difference in the final results, but it can mean the difference between Matt and Kelly running themselves on the podium or fighting for the win.

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Texas is a P-4000 race and has automatic Kona qualifier slots for the male and female winners. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 6 Nils Frommhold GER 07:30:09 08:20:39 00:49:35 03:35:24 03:00:10 78% +0% -22% (7) 6
2 1 Matt Hanson USA 07:31:37 08:39:22 00:55:04 03:45:48 02:45:45 29% +39% -31% (9) 53
3 3 Eneko Llanos ESP 07:32:26 08:23:08 00:49:45 03:38:15 02:59:26 90% +0% -10% (24) 9
4 18 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 07:32:47 08:30:54 00:49:17 03:44:35 02:53:54 56% +14% -31% (13) (23)
5 2 Jordan Rapp USA 07:34:25 08:28:09 00:53:33 03:36:58 02:58:54 72% +10% -18% (18) 18
6 14 Callum Millward NZL 07:35:31 08:26:07 00:50:12 03:45:32 02:54:47 74% +0% -26% (4) 14
7 10 Michael Weiss AUT 07:37:30 08:32:14 00:56:15 03:36:16 02:59:59 89% +11% -0% (13) 28
8 13 Jeff Symonds CAN 07:38:59 08:31:58 00:52:03 03:52:35 02:49:21 79% +0% -21% (7) 26
9 16 Richie Cunningham AUS 07:41:31 08:47:05 00:51:01 03:42:31 03:02:59 50% +0% -50% (3) (76)
10 4 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 07:42:04 08:32:50 00:49:56 03:45:59 03:01:09 81% +1% -18% (10) 30
11 7 Matthew Russell USA 07:42:57 08:45:54 00:58:50 03:43:16 02:55:51 52% +33% -15% (37) 73
12 8 Andrew Starykowicz USA 07:43:49 08:32:48 00:50:51 03:31:17 03:16:42 60% +0% -40% (7) 29
13 5 Justin Daerr USA 07:43:53 08:50:15 00:54:17 03:46:28 02:58:07 56% +13% -31% (28) 85
14 19 Pedro Gomes POR 07:44:02 08:41:40 00:53:09 03:48:29 02:57:24 59% +6% -35% (21) 58
15 36 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 07:46:06 08:44:48 00:49:09 03:51:25 03:00:32 62% +0% -38% (11) 66
16 29 Marc Duelsen GER 07:46:21 08:46:17 00:54:20 03:44:49 03:02:12 60% +0% -40% (6) (74)
17 42 Eric Limkemann USA 07:46:23 08:43:39 00:51:17 03:43:57 03:06:09 50% +32% -18% (4) 63
18 23 Barrett Brandon USA 07:47:06 08:45:06 00:49:18 03:51:09 03:01:40 60% +0% -40% (5) 68
19 24 Alberto Casadei ITA 07:48:08 08:49:13 00:49:15 03:53:03 03:00:49 38% +16% -46% (7) 81
20 15 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 07:48:52 08:49:24 00:55:49 03:44:05 03:03:57 61% +19% -20% (11) 83
21 9 Chris McDonald AUS 07:49:14 08:46:26 00:54:44 03:45:57 03:03:34 62% +8% -30% (41) 75
22 49 Jonathan Shearon USA 07:52:10 08:55:15 00:55:06 03:44:46 03:07:18 57% +12% -31% (13) 105
23 46 Michael Ruenz GER 07:53:18 08:52:33 00:56:25 03:52:10 02:59:42 54% +0% -46% (7) 94
24 28 Trevor Delsaut FRA 07:54:25 08:59:41 00:55:44 03:52:37 03:01:04 38% +10% -52% (22) 120
25 21 Mauro Baertsch SUI 07:56:14 08:59:09 00:55:30 03:52:26 03:03:17 45% +32% -23% (9) 118
26 53 Harry Wiltshire GBR 07:57:35 08:53:24 00:49:39 03:53:03 03:09:53 26% +32% -42% (14) 96
27 45 Scott Neyedli GBR 07:58:01 08:52:31 00:52:36 03:53:51 03:06:33 55% +5% -40% (18) (94)
28 17 Balazs Csoke HUN 07:58:20 09:05:10 00:49:23 03:50:24 03:13:33 56% +10% -34% (22) 150
29 11 Swen Sundberg GER 07:58:43 08:58:56 00:54:30 03:49:06 03:10:07 55% +1% -44% (17) 116
30 37 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 07:58:52 09:11:40 00:56:19 03:52:56 03:04:38 59% +40% -1% (8) 177
31 12 Jozsef Major HUN 07:58:57 08:55:22 00:59:21 03:45:47 03:08:49 76% +5% -19% (30) 106
32 51 Gudmund Snilstveit NOR 07:58:57 08:59:31 00:58:51 03:45:33 03:09:33 61% +28% -11% (7) 119
33 39 Jaroslav Kovacic SLO 08:00:31 09:03:45 00:50:57 03:58:04 03:06:31 22% +78% -0% (3) 139
34 44 Matic Modic SLO 08:01:01 09:04:30 00:57:03 03:52:02 03:06:56 47% +39% -13% (6) 143
35 20 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:01:54 09:02:14 01:02:01 03:49:53 03:05:00 84% +12% -4% (54) 130
36 48 Francisco Serrano MEX 08:03:24 09:09:54 00:52:31 03:51:36 03:14:17 100% +0% -0% (1) (170)
37 25 Antony Costes FRA 08:04:22 09:09:41 00:50:00 03:45:27 03:23:56 100% +0% -0% (1) (168)
38 31 Derek Garcia USA 08:04:40 09:04:29 00:55:17 03:50:09 03:14:14 81% +7% -12% (10) 142
39 35 Patrick Jaberg SUI 08:05:26 09:04:52 00:55:36 03:53:36 03:11:13 96% +0% -4% (16) 148
40 22 AJ Baucco USA 08:08:44 09:08:09 00:54:12 03:55:13 03:14:18 64% +0% -36% (7) 160
41 26 Matthew Curbeau USA 08:09:43 09:25:53 00:56:46 03:51:41 03:16:17 33% +43% -24% (6) 211
42 50 Denis Sketako SLO 08:13:20 09:17:45 01:00:11 03:53:55 03:14:13 100% +0% -0% (2) (198)
43 34 Samuel Huerzeler SUI 08:16:04 09:14:35 00:55:37 04:02:52 03:12:35 100% +0% -0% (5) 188
44 32 Raymond Botelho USA 08:20:33 09:35:33 00:55:35 03:48:46 03:31:11 32% +36% -31% (14) 241
45 43 Douglas MacLean USA 08:21:16 09:25:38 00:59:36 04:04:27 03:12:14 83% +5% -12% (13) 210
46 41 Colin Laughery USA 08:21:22 09:24:43 01:02:09 04:00:08 03:14:05 100% +0% -0% (2) (209)
47 47 Patrick Schuster USA 08:30:28 09:42:52 01:04:52 03:55:26 03:25:11 50% +25% -24% (7) 251
48 27 Andres Darricau Arg 08:32:01 09:44:52 00:56:16 04:09:18 03:21:27 7% +93% -0% (2) (255)
49 38 Peter Kotland CZE 08:46:54 09:55:53 01:01:04 04:05:18 03:35:32 54% +26% -21% (21) 269
50 30 Jonathan Fecik USA 08:55:26 10:05:32 00:59:07 03:55:19 03:56:00 38% +0% -62% (2) (281)
33 Aaron Gray USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
40 Patrick Lange GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
52 Josh Terwoord USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 62 Julia Gajer GER 08:18:48 09:17:12 00:54:47 04:08:13 03:10:48 77% +0% -23% (11) 9
2 61 Kelly Williamson USA 08:19:16 09:30:43 00:54:41 04:19:49 02:59:46 77% +12% -11% (12) 27
3 64 Sarah Piampiano USA 08:25:44 09:32:16 01:04:13 04:05:18 03:11:12 41% +47% -12% (14) 32
4 63 Rebekah Keat AUS 08:29:34 09:25:16 00:55:22 04:11:31 03:17:42 85% +1% -14% (22) (20)
5 66 Amanda Stevens USA 08:29:43 09:30:05 00:53:25 04:12:19 03:18:59 60% +21% -19% (17) 26
6 69 Lisa Roberts USA 08:32:53 09:37:54 01:06:32 04:13:42 03:07:39 76% +3% -21% (16) 41
7 72 Katy Blakemore USA 08:35:53 09:50:10 00:53:54 04:14:49 03:22:09 67% +13% -20% (8) 65
8 67 Bree Wee USA 08:36:37 09:48:38 00:55:45 04:13:31 03:22:21 60% +7% -32% (22) 62
9 65 Emma-Kate Lidbury GBR 08:41:50 09:48:00 00:55:20 04:09:24 03:32:06 100% +0% -0% (2) (61)
10 90 Darbi Roberts USA 08:43:04 09:58:23 00:54:45 04:16:54 03:26:25 37% +0% -63% (5) 86
11 78 Kirsty Jahn CAN 08:43:24 09:57:44 01:01:48 04:22:26 03:14:10 100% +0% -0% (1) (84)
12 85 Mackenzie Madison USA 08:45:29 09:49:27 01:00:42 04:15:41 03:24:06 69% +0% -31% (11) 63
13 70 Jen Annett CAN 08:52:38 10:07:05 01:05:55 04:16:23 03:25:20 34% +34% -32% (4) 103
14 81 Jessica Meyers USA 08:52:43 10:04:43 01:01:03 04:17:49 03:28:51 100% +0% -0% (5) 95
15 75 Saleta Castro ESP 08:54:43 10:11:01 00:57:39 04:23:03 03:29:01 53% +47% -0% (8) 110
16 77 Christine Hammond USA 08:55:59 10:03:39 00:56:35 04:20:01 03:34:23 100% +0% -0% (7) (93)
17 87 Jocelyn Mccauley USA 08:59:13 10:22:47 01:00:35 04:20:08 03:33:30 41% +0% -59% (4) (142)
18 84 Heather Leiggi USA 09:00:40 10:20:03 01:02:38 04:19:41 03:33:21 46% +13% -41% (6) 135
19 76 Christine Fletcher CAN 09:06:44 10:10:27 01:00:55 04:21:09 03:39:40 92% +8% -0% (20) 109
20 86 Caroline Martineau CAN 09:12:29 10:46:58 01:05:09 04:25:47 03:36:33 20% +49% -31% (4) 177
21 80 Amy Javens USA 09:17:34 10:23:37 01:09:09 04:19:41 03:43:44 100% +0% -0% (5) 145
22 79 Rachel Jastrebsky USA 09:18:10 10:29:05 01:03:16 04:30:28 03:39:26 100% +0% -0% (5) (161)
23 83 Angela Kuehnlein GER 09:20:47 10:30:33 01:04:47 04:33:39 03:37:21 61% +0% -39% (5) 164
24 82 Corrie Kristick USA 09:35:56 11:00:48 00:53:56 04:15:11 04:21:48 44% +0% -56% (2) (181)
25 74 Terry Casey USA 09:53:56 11:12:19 01:00:49 04:27:57 04:20:10 100% +0% -0% (1) (182)
68 Alicia Kaye USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
71 Liz Baugher USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
73 Lauren Brandon USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
88 Carrie Mccoy USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
89 Kathy Rakel USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
91 Jodie Robertson USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

While Nils Frommhold is my statistical pick for the win, the shortened bike course should play into the hands of defending champion Matt Hanson and other strong runners such as Jeff Symonds, Matt Russell or Callum Millward. The Spaniards Eneko Llanos and Clemente Alonso will contend for the podium when healthy, but I can’t really see them winning. The shortened bike will negate a large part of the strengths of Jordan Rapp, Michael Weiss and especially Andy Strarykowicz:

  • Nils Frommhold: 26% (3-1)
  • Matt Hanson: 17% (5-1)
  • Eneko Llanos: 13% (7-1)
  • Clemente Alonso McKernan: 12% (7-1)
  • Jordan Rapp: 9% (10-1)
  • Michael Weiss: 7% (13-1)
  • Jeff Symonds: 6% (17-1)
  • Matthew Russell: 4% (25-1)
  • Callum Millward: 2% (54-1)

Female Race Participants

On the female side the data points to another German winner: Julia Gajer is the pre-race favorite. But Julia and also Sarah Piampiano will need to have a great run to be able to take the win, especially as the shortened bike course will improve the chances of Kelly Williamson. With Amanda Stevens it’s hard to assess how fresh she is going to be (she raced New Zealand in March), and Rebekah Keat hasn’t raced an Ironman in more than two years. Lisa Roberts could be a surprise contender on race day – she’s got excellent bike skills and is also a fast runner.

  • Julia Gajer: 44% (1-1)
  • Sarah Piampiano: 22% (4-1)
  • Kelly Williamson: 19% (4-1)
  • Amanda Stevens: 5% (17-1)
  • Rebekah Keat: 4% (22-1)
  • Lisa Roberts: 2% (42-1)

In addition to these there are Iron-Rookie Alicia Kaye and not-really-Iron-Rookie Lauren Brandon (she DNF’d in New Zealand) who can have an impact on how the race develops.

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