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Challenge Denmark 2015 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Challenge Denmark appears to be a pretty quick course, the adjustment of 14:57 is somewhere between Germany or Melbourne and Brasil. Unfortunately, there was no easy way to get to the splits for the legs, so I can’t analyze where the quick time is coming from.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Time Diff to expected
1 Chris Fischer DEN 08:23:29 -14:27
2 Dirk Wijnalda NED 08:31:08 -17:40
3 Anders Christensen DNK 08:37:04 n/a
4 Sergio Marques POR 08:38:58 -03:07
5 Peter Seidel GER 08:39:30 n/a
6 Christophe Bastie FRA 08:42:10 02:38
7 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:44:23 -01:08
8 Jesse Vondracek USA 08:44:55 -29:37
9 Marin Koceic CRO 08:46:16 -07:22
10 Steven Osborne GBR 08:50:16 -32:31
11 Thijs Koelen NED 08:51:53 01:56
12 Magnus Magnoy SWE 09:36:18 n/a
13 Blaz Brecko SLO 09:38:52 n/a

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Time Diff to expected
1 Beate Goertz GER 09:22:28 -14:00
2 Carolin Lehrieder GER 09:23:29 -17:07
3 Jessie Donavan USA 09:33:28 11:53
4 Susanne Svendsen DEN 09:36:21 n/a
5 Eva Potuckova CZE 09:46:24 -04:41
6 Celia Kuch GER 09:53:55 -02:06
7 Anne Jensen DNK 09:55:18 01:06
8 Louise Rundqvist SWE 10:03:22 16:31

Ironman Cairns 2015 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Based on the results, the conditions in Cairns were unremarkable: An adjustment of 5:35 was just a little bit faster than the new course rating of 3:47, with all three legs showing average numbers.

Male Race Results

After making up the ground to super-swimmer Dylan McNeice, Luke McKenzie was putting time into the field, posting the fastest bike by more than six minutes. Luke was still able to follow that with his strongest marathon since placing second in Kona 2013. He was followed by Cameron Brown who posted the fastest run of the day, and Dylan McNeice who battled his way back into third place.

The race was paying ten deep, but there were only seven male finishers – I think that this is the first time that not all prize money was assigned on the male side of an Ironman race.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Luke McKenzie AUS 00:47:18 04:30:19 02:57:37 08:18:01 -16:04 US$ 20000
2 Cameron Brown NZL 00:49:44 04:40:42 02:52:54 08:26:22 01:30 US$ 10000
3 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:44:54 04:49:41 02:58:40 08:36:55 -04:16 US$ 6500
4 Simon Billeau FRA 00:52:48 04:36:08 03:10:41 08:42:05 -08:13 US$ 4000
5 Simon Cochrane NZL 00:49:33 04:49:38 03:10:47 08:52:46 -05:44 US$ 3000
6 Luke Whitmore AUS 00:49:46 05:02:52 03:10:04 09:06:07 08:30 US$ 2000
7 Luke Martin AUS 00:52:46 05:19:29 04:13:45 10:30:19 1:42:38 US$ 1500
James Cunnama ZAF 00:49:39 04:50:44 DNF

Luke McKenzie and Dylan McNeice added enough points for safe Kona slots, Cameron Brown was already safe before the race. James Cunnama had a frustrating DNF and his chances for Kona don’t look too promising at this point.

Female Race Results

Liz Blatchford was leading the race almost all day: She had the fastest swim by almost four minutes. Early in the bike she received a four-minute penalty (apparently for a swimming error as mentioned on FirstOffTheBike’s Cairns review) which allows Michelle Bremer to take the lead for a bit. But Liz quickly reclaimed the lead, posting the fastest bike leg. She followed that up with the fastest run, finishing in 9:11 and a new course record (even including the penalty!).

Gina Crawford was never too far back from Liz, and was steadily putting time into the rest of the field, posting the second fastest legs and finishing nine minutes behind Liz in second place. Michelle Bremer claimed the last spot on the podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Liz Blatchford AUS 00:49:54 05:07:37 03:10:30 09:11:49 00:21 US$ 20000
2 Gina Crawford NZL 00:53:37 05:10:34 03:12:58 09:20:56 03:12 US$ 10000
3 Michelle Bremer NZL 00:56:34 05:13:02 03:22:31 09:35:32 -00:29 US$ 6500
4 Sarah Crowley AUS 00:56:24 05:17:38 03:20:24 09:38:43 n/a US$ 4000
5 Kym Coogan AUS 00:55:09 05:15:57 03:32:39 09:46:42 -00:16 US$ 3000
6 Christie Sym AUS 00:57:07 05:29:32 03:27:07 09:56:34 05:52 US$ 2000
7 Larisa Marsh NZL 00:57:08 05:12:59 03:45:20 09:58:45 -04:48 US$ 1500
8 Ange Castle AUS 01:03:00 05:34:25 03:22:59 10:05:10 -10:13 US$ 1250
9 Kate Bruck USA 01:04:11 05:47:02 03:26:48 10:23:54 16:24 US$ 1000
Beth Gerdes USA 00:58:11 DNF
Marie Sorrell NZL 00:59:08 DNF

As Liz and Gina were already safe for Kona, the only result with Kona implications was Beth Gerdes’ DNF after two flats early on in the bike. After the race she tweeted her frustration about her first DNF in an IM, but at least she was able to see her fiancee Luke McKenzie win the race.

ITU Long Distance World Championships 2015 in Motala, Sweden (June 27th)

LDLogo

Update (June 22nd): Asa Lundstroem announced that she is focused on qualifying for Kona and won’t be able to start in Motala. There are also rumors that because of low water temperatures the swim will be shortened or changed to a run.

Update (June 23rd): There have been a few changes to the start list. Most notably, Camilla Pedersen is now defending her title from last year. 

The ITU Long Distance World Championships are contested over the “Nice Distance” of 4k swim, 120k bike and 30k run. It’s an interesting distance that puts some more weight on swimming and while it is obviously longer than the “middle distance” of half-IMs it does not require the prolonged recovery of a full distance Ironman race. (The Ratings shown in the start lists below are based on Ironman distance races, they are only an indication of each athlete’s capabilities and not a prediction of their time on the course.)

Winning the race is quite prestigious, and the event has always attracted a few big names. Some recent winners on the male side are Tim O’Donnell (2009), Jordan Rapp (2011), Chris McCormack (2012) and Bertrand Billard (2013 and 2014). Some women’s winners are Leanda Cave (2008), Chrissie Wellington (2009), Carolin Steffen (2010 and 2012), Rachel Joyce (2011), Melissa Hauschildt (2013) and Camilla Pedersen (2014).

This year’s event is held in Motala, Sweden, celebrating the 50th anniversary of 300km Vätternrundan, the biggest recreational bike ride worldwide (roughly 18.000 finishers per year).

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Overall
1 Dirk Bockel LUX n/a 08:21:49 00:47:03 04:33:05 02:58:48 4
2 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI n/a 08:27:12 00:51:27 04:37:30 02:55:07 12
3 Cyril Viennot FRA n/a 08:33:18 00:50:48 04:40:56 02:57:29 28
4 Rasmus Henning DEN n/a 08:33:32 00:47:21 04:38:13 03:04:28 (29)
5 Martin Jensen DEN n/a 08:33:58 00:48:23 04:38:15 02:55:14 (30)
6 Joe Gambles AUS n/a 08:40:06 00:48:35 04:44:27 03:03:45 49
7 Patrik Nilsson SWE n/a 08:40:33 00:48:43 04:41:57 03:03:18 52
8 Joe Skipper GBR n/a 08:43:20 00:53:18 04:41:44 02:57:44 58
9 Henrik Hyldelund DEN n/a 08:46:01 00:47:39 04:38:03 03:11:03 65
10 Andrej Vistica CRO n/a 08:46:44 00:52:46 04:42:53 03:01:40 68
11 Filip Ospaly CZE n/a 08:47:06 00:47:02 04:53:13 03:03:34 72
12 Jarmo Hast FIN n/a 08:47:27 00:50:32 04:52:38 03:01:18 75
13 Peter Robertson AUS n/a 08:53:49 00:47:56 04:47:16 03:05:51 (98)
14 Alberto Casadei ITA n/a 08:57:55 00:47:33 04:55:31 03:02:43 119
15 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS n/a 08:59:26 00:48:29 04:55:55 03:12:00 123
16 Pontus Lindberg SWE n/a 09:00:08 00:53:14 04:53:58 03:04:25 129
17 David Naesvik SWE n/a 09:07:25 00:54:37 04:48:33 03:15:05 154
18 Ritchie Nicholls GBR n/a 09:08:04 00:48:57 05:01:31 02:59:15 (158)
19 Tohara Kaito JPN n/a 09:13:38 00:54:19 05:07:19 03:01:49 184
20 Andreas Niedrig GER n/a 09:15:38 00:47:36 04:49:38 03:36:30 192
21 Kuniaki Takahama JPN n/a 09:16:01 00:48:27 05:16:41 02:58:35 (193)
22 Bertrand Billard FRA n/a 09:17:42 00:48:05 04:39:58 03:35:16 (197)
23 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE n/a 09:20:24 00:49:21 04:52:05 03:30:16 215
Gustavo Rodriguez ESP n/a 09:25:37 00:53:22 04:57:51 03:18:03 (243)
24 Fredrik Carlen SWE n/a 09:33:09 00:54:07 04:58:36 03:25:16 (267)
25 Georgy Kaurov RUS n/a 09:33:14 00:49:42 04:57:10 03:23:57 (267)
26 John Hirsch USA n/a 09:47:08 00:54:59 05:14:56 03:23:59 315
27 Eddy Lamers NED n/a 10:05:25 00:51:47 04:55:04 03:56:30 (378)
28 Evgeniy Nikitin RUS n/a 10:19:03 00:51:31 05:15:52 03:59:06 417
29 Ruedi Wild SUI n/a 10:56:00 00:48:54 04:47:12 04:47:47 (458)
30 Aleksandr Kocetkov LTU n/a 11:09:43 01:07:45 05:40:09 03:53:54 (463)
31 Diederik Scheltinga NED n/a 11:43:33 00:52:16 05:26:42 04:54:56 (465)
Josh Amberger AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Juan Manuel Asconape ARG n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Sam Betten AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
George Bjalkemo SWE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Alexey Brylev RUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Jonathan Ciavattella ITA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Jose Estrangeiro PRT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Hector Fonseca CRC n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Kim Harju FIN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Mikita Hryhoryeu POL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Joel Jokinen FIN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Ken Koike JPN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Daniel Mugica Corrales ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Attila Szabó HUN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Nikolay Yaroshenko RUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Overall
1 Mary Beth Ellis USA n/a 09:17:08 00:50:41 05:07:00 03:15:37 7
Camilla Pedersen DEN n/a 09:24:46 00:51:00 05:06:40 03:18:23 19
2 Asa Lundstroem SWE n/a 09:32:35 01:00:14 05:12:37 03:17:22 29
3 Eva Nystroem SWE n/a 09:43:22 01:03:35 05:11:40 03:23:53 (49)
4 Ariane Monticeli BRA n/a 09:53:18 01:02:59 05:29:19 03:13:41 70
5 Camilla Lindholm SWE n/a 10:07:08 01:10:01 05:22:31 03:22:10 99
Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP n/a 10:13:14 01:02:51 05:37:42 03:19:08 (111)
6 Lena Holmgren SWE n/a 10:13:53 01:06:07 05:29:07 03:21:23 (111)
7 Emma Graaf SWE n/a 10:19:00 00:59:24 05:27:51 03:41:13 126
8 Maki Nishiuchi JPN n/a 10:23:56 00:53:42 05:36:48 03:47:54 138
Amy Forshaw GBR n/a 10:30:08 01:03:27 05:39:24 03:33:22 150
Vanessa Pereira POR n/a 10:44:57 01:02:41 05:43:14 03:45:26 161
9 Venla Koivula FIN n/a 11:14:56 01:00:38 05:32:24 04:15:48 (165)
Ewa Bugdol POL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Kaisa Lehtonen FIN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Hanna Maksimova BLR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Chino Nishimura JPN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Mauren Solano CRC n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Annie Thoren SWE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on the Ironman-distance results, Dirk Bockel is a step above the rest of the field. I hope that he has recovered from the injuries that he was dealing with in the last years – too often he had one good result and then had to take some time off. He is challenged by a long list of European athletes such as Henrik Hyldelund (last year’s winner of IM Copenhagen), Patrik Nilsson (winner of IM Malaysia), Joe Skipper (having just delivered a fantastic race at IM Texas) and Martin Jensen (hopefully recovered from his injury after Challenge Dubai) and legends such as Ronnie Schildknecht or Rasmus Henning. Australia is represented Joe Gambles, Peter Robertson and Josh Amberger. If all these athletes actually start, it’ll be a very interesting race!

  • Dirk Bockel: 34% (2-1)
  • Henrik Hyldelund: 12% (7-1)
  • Patrik Nilsson: 12% (7-1)
  • Ronnie Schildknecht: 10% (9-1)
  • Joe Gambles: 7% (13-1)
  • Cyril Viennot: 7% (13-1)
  • Rasmus Henning: 7% (14-1)
  • Joe Skipper: 5% (18-1)
  • Martin Jensen: 3% (37-1)

Female Race Participants

Mary Beth Ellis is the clear favorite – it’ll be interesting to see if she’ll actually start and what form she’ll be in after her recent switch back to Brett Sutton coaching. Behind MBE, there are a number of Swedish athletes that would love to keep the title in their home country. Ariane Monticelli is the only notable non-European athlete in the field (other than MBE).

  • Mary Beth Ellis: 70% (1-1)
  • Asa Lundstroem: 18% (4-1)
  • Ariane Monticeli: 5% (19-1)
  • Eva Nystroem: 4% (24-1)
  • Camilla Lindholm: 2% (50-1)

Kona Odds (Update End of May)

Here is a look at the top Kona contenders after IM Brasil (end of May).

Male

At this point, the male race looks is a dead heat between the last two year’s winners, Frederik Van Lierde and Sebastian Kienle. The statistical “front runner status” will be decided when they face off in Frankfurt – but regardless of that result they will both be strong contenders for this year’s Kona win.

Brent McMahon’s two sub-8 IMs (even on fast courses in Arizona and Brasil) have pit him in a good position to at least content for a podium spot. Ivan Rana has added a good IM South Africa to his resume and has enough time to focus on Kona. Craig Alexander, Pete Jacobs and Andreas Raelert are included on the strength of their previous Kona results while Nils Frommhold is one who could surprise if he continues his development over the full distance.

  • Frederik Van Lierde: 24% (3-1)
  • Sebastian Kienle: 24% (3-1)
  • Brent McMahon: 9% (10-1)
  • Ivan Rana: 7% (13-1)
  • Craig Alexander: 4% (26-1)
  • Pete Jacobs: 3% (29-1)
  • Andreas Raelert: 3% (30-1)
  • Nils Frommhold: 3% (31-1)

Most notable athletes missing in this list? Jan Frodeno has almost unlimited potential – but still needs to have a “good IM” – maybe Frankfurt? The US hopes don’t have good statistical chances: Andy Potts, Tim O’Donnell, Ben Hoffman or Matt Hanson are all at less than 1%. Jordan Rapp only has an outside chance to qualify after his DNF in Texas (even a win in a P-2000 race would probably leave him just short) and Andrew Starykowicz seems to focus on Challenge Roth this year.

Female

On the female side, Mirinda Carfrae is the clear favorite to defend her title. Rachel Joyce and Daniela Ryf (also starting in Frankfurt) are her strongest challengers.

These are followed by a couple of experienced athletes: Meredith Kessler, Caroline Steffen, Linsey Corbin (still looking to qualify after two DNSs in Regional Championships) and Leanda Cava would need a big step forward to a contend for a Kona win this year.

  • Mirinda Carfrae: 41% (1-1)
  • Rachel Joyce: 20% (4-1)
  • Daniela Ryf: 12% (7-1)
  • Meredith Kessler: 7% (13-1)
  • Caroline Steffen: 5% (19-1)
  • Linsey Corbin: 3% (36-1)
  • Leanda Cave: 2% (46-1)

As always, there is a ton of athletes that could content for a Top5 or better. Among these, I would pick Jodie Swallow and Angela Naeth as serious podium contenders. But sometimes Kona rookies have a great first year and maybe Mel Hauschildt, Susie Cheetham or Annabel Luxford could also play a factor.

Ironman Cairns 2015 (June 13th) – Predictions

CairnsLogoUpdate June 10th: Fredrik Croneborg announced on Twitter that he has a slight injury and won’t be able to start in Cairns.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:15:56 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 09:26:31
2012 David Dellow (AUS) 08:15:04 Carrie Lester (AUS) 09:21:00
2013 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:17:43 Liz Blatchford (AUS) 09:19:51
2014 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:20:15 Liz Blatchford (AUS) 09:16:58

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Cameron Brown NZL 00:55:16 04:36:20 02:44:54 08:20:15
2 Tim Van Berkel AUS 00:52:11 04:39:35 02:48:15 08:23:23
3 Peter Robertson AUS 00:50:34 04:41:13 02:58:08 08:33:26

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Liz Blatchford AUS 00:52:47 05:13:09 03:06:57 09:16:58
2 Melanie Burke NZL 01:06:23 05:00:37 03:12:00 09:22:53
3 Asa Lundstroem SWE 01:04:41 05:08:06 03:09:03 09:25:56

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:15:04 David Dellow 2012-06-02
Swim overall 00:43:48 Clayton Fettell 2011-06-05
Bike overall 04:21:52 Luke McKenzie 2013-06-01
Run overall 02:44:24 Tim Van Berkel 2013-06-01
Total female 09:16:58 Liz Blatchford 2014-06-08
Swim female 00:52:47 Liz Blatchford 2014-06-08
Bike female 05:00:37 Melanie Burke 2014-06-08
Bike female 05:00:37 Belinda Harper 2012-06-02
Run female 03:06:57 Liz Blatchford 2014-06-08

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Cairns is 03:20.

Race Adjustments for IM Cairns

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 01:30 01:09 04:20 01:47 12 01:30 01:09 04:20 01:47
2012 09:39 -01:17 06:56 -00:06 20 05:34 -00:04 05:38 00:51
2013 00:03 -02:09 07:36 -03:20 14 03:44 -00:46 06:17 -00:33
2014 02:09 -02:48 04:55 02:45 13 03:20 -01:16 05:57 00:17

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Cairns is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 100.000 US$, paying ten deep.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Cameron Brown NZL 08:24:18 08:30:08 00:52:21 04:35:15 02:51:42 16
2 2 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:28:06 08:39:15 00:49:56 04:28:26 03:04:44 46
3 3 James Cunnama ZAF 08:29:59 08:35:31 00:50:54 04:35:05 02:58:59 35
4 6 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:38:35 08:40:18 00:52:03 04:40:11 03:01:21 50
5 5 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 08:41:33 08:47:53 00:53:28 04:47:06 02:55:59 76
6 4 Dylan McNeice NZL 08:41:35 08:51:49 00:46:50 04:45:58 03:03:47 90
7 10 Luke Martin AUS 08:53:15 08:59:35 00:53:37 04:49:24 03:05:13 124
8 7 Brian Fuller AUS 08:54:39 09:02:02 00:52:57 04:45:05 03:11:38 136
9 12 Simon Billeau FRA 08:54:48 08:55:43 00:56:01 04:38:57 03:14:50 111
10 13 Simon Cochrane NZL 08:58:14 09:09:28 00:53:06 04:53:32 03:06:36 168
11 8 Luke Whitmore AUS 09:02:05 09:08:43 00:56:14 04:56:04 03:04:47 (164)
12 11 Daniel Brown AUS 10:47:17 11:04:23 01:06:13 05:31:16 04:04:47 (459)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 21 Liz Blatchford AUS 09:13:59 09:17:12 00:52:02 05:08:21 03:08:36 8
2 22 Gina Crawford NZL 09:19:22 09:23:34 00:53:22 05:08:50 03:12:10 16
3 23 Beth Gerdes USA 09:30:50 09:47:01 01:03:43 05:14:58 03:07:09 53
4 25 Rebecca Preston AUS 09:37:33 09:36:55 00:59:25 05:13:28 03:19:40 37
5 24 Michelle Bremer NZL 09:42:42 09:47:49 00:59:13 05:11:57 03:26:32 56
6 33 Christie Sym AUS 09:52:51 10:14:59 00:59:59 05:14:06 03:33:46 (113)
7 28 Kym Coogan AUS 09:55:13 10:04:59 00:57:50 05:18:19 03:34:04 (96)
8 32 Marie Sorrell NZL 09:58:59 10:14:49 01:00:24 05:20:16 03:33:19 (113)
9 27 Larisa Marsh NZL 10:06:01 10:15:52 01:01:58 05:21:06 03:37:56 115
10 31 Ange Castle AUS 10:11:40 10:27:53 01:07:34 05:19:13 03:39:52 (146)
11 30 Kate Bruck USA 10:16:18 10:32:35 01:08:17 05:36:28 03:26:33 (150)
12 29 Jana Candrova CZE 10:24:50 10:31:44 01:06:15 05:32:00 03:41:34 149
26 Sarah Crowley AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

KPR Situation

Cameron Brown (4.545) is already safe for a slot, and Frederik Croneborg (3.975) just needs to slightly improve his score to also be safe. Behind these two, there are Dylan MacNeice (3.025) and Luke McKenzie (2.450) within a reasonable distance of my projected July cutoff of 3.800 points. James Cunnama (1.725) can also get close, but will need another score in addition to Cairns.

On the female side, only Beth Gerdes is still hunting for KPR points. She has already scored 4.515 points with some great results in Western Australia (4th in 9:04) and Melbourne (5th in 9:05) but is still short of the roughly 5.100 points that will be needed for a July slot. She has to improve her score from Malaysia (5th = 720) which would get bumped from her total score and needs at least a podium spot (3rd = 1280) to get close for a July slot. Liz Blatchford (6.170) and Gina Crawford (7.880) are already safe, and the others are probably too far back (Michelle Bremer with 2.000 has the best score).

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Cam Brown is the defending champion and the clear favorite for the win. Luke McKenzie and James Cunnama are looking for a good race after a few sub-par results.

  • Cameron Brown: 42% (1-1)
  • Luke McKenzie: 23% (3-1)
  • James Cunnama: 14% (6-1)
  • Courtney Ogden: 11% (8-1)
  • Dylan McNeice: 7% (14-1)
  • Fredrik Croneborg: 3% (39-1)

Female Race Participants

The female race is a toss-up between two-time defending champion Liz Blatchford and Gina Crawford. Behind these two, Beth Gerdes looks the favorite for the remaining podium spot.

  • Gina Crawford: 44% (1-1)
  • Liz Blatchford: 42% (1-1)
  • Beth Gerdes: 9% (11-1)
  • Rebecca Preston: 3% (37-1)
  • Michelle Bremer: 2% (55-1)
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