Thorsten

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Viktor Zyemtsev (USA)	08:23:29	(no female Pros)
2006	(no male Pros)		Joanna Zeiger (USA)	09:31:07
2007	Viktor Zyemtsev (USA)	08:33:32	(no female Pros)
2008	Tom Evans (CAN)	08:34:22	Heather Wurtele (CAN)	09:38:58
2009	Francisco Pontano (ARG)	08:32:12	Tyler Stewart (USA)	09:23:21
2010	Andy Potts (USA)	08:24:40	Linsey Corbin (USA)	09:17:54
2011	Craig Alexander (AUS)	08:19:48	Julie Dibens (GBR)	09:16:40
2012	Viktor Zyemtsev (USA)	08:32:29	Meredith Kessler (USA)	09:21:44
2013	Ben Hoffman (USA)	08:17:31	Heather Wurtele (CAN)	09:16:02
2014	Andy Potts (USA)	08:25:44	Heather Wurtele (CAN)	09:34:32

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Andy Potts	USA	00:47:57	04:42:35	02:51:53	08:25:44
2	Viktor Zyemtsev	USA	00:53:01	04:46:24	02:46:03	08:28:32
3	Ben Hoffman	USA	00:53:05	04:48:58	02:43:59	08:29:12

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Heather Wurtele	CAN	00:59:14	05:22:19	03:09:10	09:34:32
2	Kelly Williamson	USA	00:58:30	05:37:52	03:09:47	09:50:07
3	Jessica Smith	USA	00:59:12	05:29:38	03:26:14	09:58:42

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:17:31	Ben Hoffman	2013-06-23
Swim	overall	00:45:23	Matthew Dixon	2003-06-29
Bike	overall	04:29:09	Maik Twelsiek	2011-06-26
Run	overall	02:42:07	Matt Hanson	2014-06-29
Total	female	09:16:02	Heather Wurtele	2013-06-23
Swim	female	00:48:08	Monica Byrn	2003-06-29
Bike	female	04:52:18	Julie Dibens	2011-06-26
Run	female	03:03:12	Caitlin Snow	2011-06-26

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Coeur d’Alene is 00:54.

Race Adjustments for IM Coeur d’Alene

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2006	-04:43	-00:22	-01:29	-09:01	18	-04:43	-00:22	-01:29	-09:01
2007	-02:48	-04:06	-07:58	01:55	23	-03:45	-02:14	-04:43	-03:33
2008	-00:13	-03:18	-03:02	03:25	24	-02:35	-02:35	-04:10	-01:14
2009	04:38	-03:38	01:18	05:38	30	-00:46	-02:51	-02:48	00:29
2010	05:42	-02:18	01:55	03:54	29	00:31	-02:44	-01:51	01:10
2011	00:27	-02:51	01:31	02:28	18	00:31	-02:45	-01:18	01:23
2012	-03:42	-02:30	-04:42	03:35	18	-00:05	-02:43	-01:47	01:42
2013	03:44	-01:15	00:18	02:00	29	00:23	-02:32	-01:31	01:44
2014	04:56	-03:08	-02:27	06:45	15	00:54	-02:36	-01:37	02:18

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Coeur d’Alene is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 100.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	1	Andy Potts	USA	08:25:36	08:27:15	00:47:40	04:40:21	02:52:36	13
2	3	Maik Twelsiek	GER	08:29:39	08:35:15	00:51:42	04:30:10	03:02:47	36
3	7	Callum Millward	NZL	08:31:15	08:42:24	00:49:35	04:43:56	02:52:45	(56)
4	5	Paul Matthews	AUS	08:33:39	08:32:46	00:48:41	04:41:24	02:58:34	27
5	11	Pedro Gomes	POR	08:41:55	08:41:56	00:53:13	04:46:51	02:56:51	53
6	4	Trevor Wurtele	CAN	08:43:03	08:51:34	00:55:19	04:43:34	02:59:10	92
7	2	Matthew Russell	USA	08:44:44	08:50:13	01:00:25	04:42:49	02:56:30	84
8	9	Barrett Brandon	USA	08:45:29	09:02:18	00:51:27	04:51:04	02:57:59	(136)
9	21	Jonathan Shearon	USA	08:46:04	08:59:54	00:55:16	04:43:13	03:02:35	126
10	10	Trevor Delsaut	FRA	08:46:52	08:53:56	00:55:49	04:50:31	02:55:33	101
11	17	Patrick Evoe	USA	08:53:27	08:55:30	00:58:42	04:47:51	03:01:54	111
12	13	Derek Garcia	USA	09:01:51	09:14:14	00:55:16	04:47:50	03:13:45	191
13	8	Matt Lieto	USA	09:03:51	09:04:44	00:54:16	04:54:19	03:10:16	147
14	6	Leon Griffin	AUS	09:05:13	09:16:38	00:52:57	04:44:19	03:22:57	(196)
15	23	Yu Shinozaki	JPN	09:11:49	09:55:36	00:58:43	04:47:57	03:20:10	353
16	16	Jim Lubinski	USA	09:13:53	09:34:14	01:03:19	05:02:41	03:02:53	272
17	22	Matthew Sheeks	USA	09:15:01	09:24:15	01:06:07	05:03:39	03:00:15	237
18	24	Michael Starkey	USA	09:15:05	09:27:11	01:02:19	04:58:28	03:09:17	(245)
19	14	Patrick Wheeler	USA	09:18:03	09:30:36	00:58:36	05:08:01	03:06:26	257
20	19	Douglas MacLean	USA	09:19:37	09:22:55	01:00:19	05:05:10	03:09:08	229
21	18	Stephen Kilshaw	CAN	09:23:11	09:28:50	00:59:09	05:05:04	03:13:58	248
22	15	Dantley Young	USA	09:51:08	09:58:31	01:09:03	05:18:18	03:18:47	361
23	25	Dan Brown	PHI	10:00:46	10:15:42	01:05:23	05:19:59	03:30:24	(408)
24	20	Eric Reid	USA	11:10:17	11:24:54	01:03:16	05:11:08	04:50:53	(469)
25	12	Andrew Fast	USA	14:47:04	15:06:23	01:01:13	05:05:12	08:35:39	(472)
	41	Terry Casey	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Andy Potts only has to finish an IM in order to be assured a Kona slot. Pedro Gomes (4.090 points) is already in a great position for a July slot, but already has three IMs in his score, so he has to finish fourth or better to improve. Make Twelsiek (3.790 points) is a few points back from Pedro, but has an empty points slot so will likely improve his score and secure a slot. After his recent 70.3 win in Boulder, Callum Millward (currently 3.225 points and an empty points slot) is also on track for a Kona slot, but needs at least a fifth place or better.

Behind these Matthew Russell (2.440, but already 3 IMs), Leon Griffin (2.300) Paul Matthews (1.900) would need to win to get in the mix for a Kona slot. Barrett Brandon (1.600), Trevor Delsaut (1.525) and Patrick Evoe (1.365) can improve their score and get close, but even a win probably won’t be enough for a slot.

Trevor Wurtele (2.125) also has a decent number of KPR points, but has already said he is not interested in racing Kona this year.

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	31	Amanda Stevens	USA	09:32:33	09:33:49	00:53:02	05:15:15	03:19:16	33
2	33	Heather Jackson	USA	09:33:27	09:48:10	01:00:32	05:03:14	03:24:40	(55)
3	40	Katy Blakemore	USA	09:35:27	09:41:12	00:54:39	05:19:53	03:15:55	45
4	50	Laura Siddall	GBR	09:39:35	09:47:41	01:00:53	05:14:05	03:19:37	(54)
5	46	Tamara Kozulina	UKR	09:40:38	09:48:47	01:05:06	05:19:24	03:11:09	55
6	32	Dede Griesbauer	USA	09:41:00	09:49:15	00:55:23	05:15:34	03:25:03	57
7	38	Kim Schwabenbauer	USA	09:41:47	09:39:13	01:05:25	05:18:26	03:12:56	43
8	34	Amber Ferreira	USA	09:45:41	09:49:40	00:58:13	05:21:41	03:20:47	60
9	47	Mackenzie Madison	USA	09:47:08	09:51:52	01:02:00	05:19:51	03:20:17	65
10	42	Haley Cooper-Scott	USA	09:55:11	10:02:04	01:04:34	05:20:18	03:25:19	(90)
11	39	Anne Basso	FRA	10:04:38	10:34:12	01:00:28	05:29:36	03:29:35	151
12	49	Jen Annett	CAN	10:06:17	10:14:51	01:08:34	05:22:18	03:30:25	(115)
13	44	Sarah Graves	USA	10:07:52	10:15:07	01:14:59	05:28:17	03:19:37	(116)
14	43	Olesya Prystayko	UKR	10:10:01	10:24:47	01:03:26	05:29:17	03:32:18	142
15	36	Sarah Jarvis	USA	10:21:05	10:34:37	01:02:12	05:25:13	03:48:40	(152)
16	45	Amy Javens	USA	10:24:13	10:25:15	01:09:11	05:30:16	03:39:46	143
17	35	Alyssa Godesky	USA	10:34:00	10:38:56	01:07:41	05:42:40	03:38:38	155
	37	Leslie DiMichele Miller	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	48	Michelle Mighdoll	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

There are three athletes that are very close to a July Kona slot: Amanda Stevens (5.030 but already 3IMs), Dede Griesbauer (4.500) and Heather Jackson (3.800 but already 5 races in her total) are looking for the few remaining points to qualify in the first round.

Katy Blakemore (2.990) can get very close to the projected 5.100 points cutoff, while Kim Schwabenbauer (1.515) or Tamara Kozulina (1.915) are too far back for a slot even if they do well in Coeur d’Alene.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Andy Potts is the clear favorite to defend his title from last year. However, Mike Twelsiek and a number of other good cyclists will try to put the pressure on Andy:

• Andy Potts: 51% (1-1)
• Maik Twelsiek: 25% (3-1)
• Paul Matthews: 9% (10-1)
• Callum Millward: 3% (30-1)
• Trevor Wurtele: 3% (30-1)
• Trevor Delsaut: 2% (40-1)
• Jonathan Shearon: 2% (48-1)
• Pedro Gomes: 2% (51-1)

Female Race Participants

After her recent good result in Brasil, Amanda Stevens is the statistical front runner. Dede Griesbauer, Amber Ferreira and Kim Schwabenbauer would love to add another IM win to her resume. Among others, Heather Jackson is steadily improving over the full IM distance, so I expect a close and exciting race for the podium spots:

• Amanda Stevens: 28% (3-1)
• Dede Griesbauer: 20% (4-1)
• Katy Blakemore: 17% (5-1)
• Heather Jackson: 14% (6-1)
• Amber Ferreira: 7% (13-1)
• Tamara Kozulina: 7% (14-1)
• Kim Schwabenbauer: 3% (29-1)

Race Conditions

Challenge Denmark appears to be a pretty quick course, the adjustment of 14:57 is somewhere between Germany or Melbourne and Brasil. Unfortunately, there was no easy way to get to the splits for the legs, so I can’t analyze where the quick time is coming from.

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Time	Diff to expected
1	Chris Fischer	DEN	08:23:29	-14:27
2	Dirk Wijnalda	NED	08:31:08	-17:40
3	Anders Christensen	DNK	08:37:04	n/a
4	Sergio Marques	POR	08:38:58	-03:07
5	Peter Seidel	GER	08:39:30	n/a
6	Christophe Bastie	FRA	08:42:10	02:38
7	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	08:44:23	-01:08
8	Jesse Vondracek	USA	08:44:55	-29:37
9	Marin Koceic	CRO	08:46:16	-07:22
10	Steven Osborne	GBR	08:50:16	-32:31
11	Thijs Koelen	NED	08:51:53	01:56
12	Magnus Magnoy	SWE	09:36:18	n/a
13	Blaz Brecko	SLO	09:38:52	n/a

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Time	Diff to expected
1	Beate Goertz	GER	09:22:28	-14:00
2	Carolin Lehrieder	GER	09:23:29	-17:07
3	Jessie Donavan	USA	09:33:28	11:53
4	Susanne Svendsen	DEN	09:36:21	n/a
5	Eva Potuckova	CZE	09:46:24	-04:41
6	Celia Kuch	GER	09:53:55	-02:06
7	Anne Jensen	DNK	09:55:18	01:06
8	Louise Rundqvist	SWE	10:03:22	16:31

Race Conditions

Based on the results, the conditions in Cairns were unremarkable: An adjustment of 5:35 was just a little bit faster than the new course rating of 3:47, with all three legs showing average numbers.

Male Race Results

After making up the ground to super-swimmer Dylan McNeice, Luke McKenzie was putting time into the field, posting the fastest bike by more than six minutes. Luke was still able to follow that with his strongest marathon since placing second in Kona 2013. He was followed by Cameron Brown who posted the fastest run of the day, and Dylan McNeice who battled his way back into third place.

The race was paying ten deep, but there were only seven male finishers – I think that this is the first time that not all prize money was assigned on the male side of an Ironman race.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Luke McKenzie	AUS	00:47:18	04:30:19	02:57:37	08:18:01	-16:04	US$ 20000
2	Cameron Brown	NZL	00:49:44	04:40:42	02:52:54	08:26:22	01:30	US$ 10000
3	Dylan McNeice	NZL	00:44:54	04:49:41	02:58:40	08:36:55	-04:16	US$ 6500
4	Simon Billeau	FRA	00:52:48	04:36:08	03:10:41	08:42:05	-08:13	US$ 4000
5	Simon Cochrane	NZL	00:49:33	04:49:38	03:10:47	08:52:46	-05:44	US$ 3000
6	Luke Whitmore	AUS	00:49:46	05:02:52	03:10:04	09:06:07	08:30	US$ 2000
7	Luke Martin	AUS	00:52:46	05:19:29	04:13:45	10:30:19	1:42:38	US$ 1500
	James Cunnama	ZAF	00:49:39	04:50:44		DNF

Luke McKenzie and Dylan McNeice added enough points for safe Kona slots, Cameron Brown was already safe before the race. James Cunnama had a frustrating DNF and his chances for Kona don’t look too promising at this point.

Female Race Results

Liz Blatchford was leading the race almost all day: She had the fastest swim by almost four minutes. Early in the bike she received a four-minute penalty (apparently for a swimming error as mentioned on FirstOffTheBike’s Cairns review) which allows Michelle Bremer to take the lead for a bit. But Liz quickly reclaimed the lead, posting the fastest bike leg. She followed that up with the fastest run, finishing in 9:11 and a new course record (even including the penalty!).

Gina Crawford was never too far back from Liz, and was steadily putting time into the rest of the field, posting the second fastest legs and finishing nine minutes behind Liz in second place. Michelle Bremer claimed the last spot on the podium.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Liz Blatchford	AUS	00:49:54	05:07:37	03:10:30	09:11:49	00:21	US$ 20000
2	Gina Crawford	NZL	00:53:37	05:10:34	03:12:58	09:20:56	03:12	US$ 10000
3	Michelle Bremer	NZL	00:56:34	05:13:02	03:22:31	09:35:32	-00:29	US$ 6500
4	Sarah Crowley	AUS	00:56:24	05:17:38	03:20:24	09:38:43	n/a	US$ 4000
5	Kym Coogan	AUS	00:55:09	05:15:57	03:32:39	09:46:42	-00:16	US$ 3000
6	Christie Sym	AUS	00:57:07	05:29:32	03:27:07	09:56:34	05:52	US$ 2000
7	Larisa Marsh	NZL	00:57:08	05:12:59	03:45:20	09:58:45	-04:48	US$ 1500
8	Ange Castle	AUS	01:03:00	05:34:25	03:22:59	10:05:10	-10:13	US$ 1250
9	Kate Bruck	USA	01:04:11	05:47:02	03:26:48	10:23:54	16:24	US$ 1000
	Beth Gerdes	USA	00:58:11			DNF
	Marie Sorrell	NZL	00:59:08			DNF

As Liz and Gina were already safe for Kona, the only result with Kona implications was Beth Gerdes’ DNF after two flats early on in the bike. After the race she tweeted her frustration about her first DNF in an IM, but at least she was able to see her fiancee Luke McKenzie win the race.

Update (June 22nd): Asa Lundstroem announced that she is focused on qualifying for Kona and won’t be able to start in Motala. There are also rumors that because of low water temperatures the swim will be shortened or changed to a run.

Update (June 23rd): There have been a few changes to the start list. Most notably, Camilla Pedersen is now defending her title from last year. 

The ITU Long Distance World Championships are contested over the “Nice Distance” of 4k swim, 120k bike and 30k run. It’s an interesting distance that puts some more weight on swimming and while it is obviously longer than the “middle distance” of half-IMs it does not require the prolonged recovery of a full distance Ironman race. (The Ratings shown in the start lists below are based on Ironman distance races, they are only an indication of each athlete’s capabilities and not a prediction of their time on the course.)

Winning the race is quite prestigious, and the event has always attracted a few big names. Some recent winners on the male side are Tim O’Donnell (2009), Jordan Rapp (2011), Chris McCormack (2012) and Bertrand Billard (2013 and 2014). Some women’s winners are Leanda Cave (2008), Chrissie Wellington (2009), Carolin Steffen (2010 and 2012), Rachel Joyce (2011), Melissa Hauschildt (2013) and Camilla Pedersen (2014).

This year’s event is held in Motala, Sweden, celebrating the 50th anniversary of 300km Vätternrundan, the biggest recreational bike ride worldwide (roughly 18.000 finishers per year).

Male Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Overall
1	Dirk Bockel	LUX	n/a	08:21:49	00:47:03	04:33:05	02:58:48	4
2	Ronnie Schildknecht	SUI	n/a	08:27:12	00:51:27	04:37:30	02:55:07	12
3	Cyril Viennot	FRA	n/a	08:33:18	00:50:48	04:40:56	02:57:29	28
4	Rasmus Henning	DEN	n/a	08:33:32	00:47:21	04:38:13	03:04:28	(29)
5	Martin Jensen	DEN	n/a	08:33:58	00:48:23	04:38:15	02:55:14	(30)
6	Joe Gambles	AUS	n/a	08:40:06	00:48:35	04:44:27	03:03:45	49
7	Patrik Nilsson	SWE	n/a	08:40:33	00:48:43	04:41:57	03:03:18	52
8	Joe Skipper	GBR	n/a	08:43:20	00:53:18	04:41:44	02:57:44	58
9	Henrik Hyldelund	DEN	n/a	08:46:01	00:47:39	04:38:03	03:11:03	65
10	Andrej Vistica	CRO	n/a	08:46:44	00:52:46	04:42:53	03:01:40	68
11	Filip Ospaly	CZE	n/a	08:47:06	00:47:02	04:53:13	03:03:34	72
12	Jarmo Hast	FIN	n/a	08:47:27	00:50:32	04:52:38	03:01:18	75
13	Peter Robertson	AUS	n/a	08:53:49	00:47:56	04:47:16	03:05:51	(98)
14	Alberto Casadei	ITA	n/a	08:57:55	00:47:33	04:55:31	03:02:43	119
15	Andrey Lyatskiy	RUS	n/a	08:59:26	00:48:29	04:55:55	03:12:00	123
16	Pontus Lindberg	SWE	n/a	09:00:08	00:53:14	04:53:58	03:04:25	129
17	David Naesvik	SWE	n/a	09:07:25	00:54:37	04:48:33	03:15:05	154
18	Ritchie Nicholls	GBR	n/a	09:08:04	00:48:57	05:01:31	02:59:15	(158)
19	Tohara Kaito	JPN	n/a	09:13:38	00:54:19	05:07:19	03:01:49	184
20	Andreas Niedrig	GER	n/a	09:15:38	00:47:36	04:49:38	03:36:30	192
21	Kuniaki Takahama	JPN	n/a	09:16:01	00:48:27	05:16:41	02:58:35	(193)
22	Bertrand Billard	FRA	n/a	09:17:42	00:48:05	04:39:58	03:35:16	(197)
23	Karl-Johan Danielsson	SWE	n/a	09:20:24	00:49:21	04:52:05	03:30:16	215
	Gustavo Rodriguez	ESP	n/a	09:25:37	00:53:22	04:57:51	03:18:03	(243)
24	Fredrik Carlen	SWE	n/a	09:33:09	00:54:07	04:58:36	03:25:16	(267)
25	Georgy Kaurov	RUS	n/a	09:33:14	00:49:42	04:57:10	03:23:57	(267)
26	John Hirsch	USA	n/a	09:47:08	00:54:59	05:14:56	03:23:59	315
27	Eddy Lamers	NED	n/a	10:05:25	00:51:47	04:55:04	03:56:30	(378)
28	Evgeniy Nikitin	RUS	n/a	10:19:03	00:51:31	05:15:52	03:59:06	417
29	Ruedi Wild	SUI	n/a	10:56:00	00:48:54	04:47:12	04:47:47	(458)
30	Aleksandr Kocetkov	LTU	n/a	11:09:43	01:07:45	05:40:09	03:53:54	(463)
31	Diederik Scheltinga	NED	n/a	11:43:33	00:52:16	05:26:42	04:54:56	(465)
	Josh Amberger	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Juan Manuel Asconape	ARG	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Sam Betten	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	George Bjalkemo	SWE	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Alexey Brylev	RUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Jonathan Ciavattella	ITA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Jose Estrangeiro	PRT	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Hector Fonseca	CRC	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Kim Harju	FIN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Mikita Hryhoryeu	POL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Joel Jokinen	FIN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Ken Koike	JPN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Daniel Mugica Corrales	ESP	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Attila Szabó	HUN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Nikolay Yaroshenko	RUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Overall
1	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	n/a	09:17:08	00:50:41	05:07:00	03:15:37	7
	Camilla Pedersen	DEN	n/a	09:24:46	00:51:00	05:06:40	03:18:23	19
2	Asa Lundstroem	SWE	n/a	09:32:35	01:00:14	05:12:37	03:17:22	29
3	Eva Nystroem	SWE	n/a	09:43:22	01:03:35	05:11:40	03:23:53	(49)
4	Ariane Monticeli	BRA	n/a	09:53:18	01:02:59	05:29:19	03:13:41	70
5	Camilla Lindholm	SWE	n/a	10:07:08	01:10:01	05:22:31	03:22:10	99
	Gurutze Frades Larralde	ESP	n/a	10:13:14	01:02:51	05:37:42	03:19:08	(111)
6	Lena Holmgren	SWE	n/a	10:13:53	01:06:07	05:29:07	03:21:23	(111)
7	Emma Graaf	SWE	n/a	10:19:00	00:59:24	05:27:51	03:41:13	126
8	Maki Nishiuchi	JPN	n/a	10:23:56	00:53:42	05:36:48	03:47:54	138
	Amy Forshaw	GBR	n/a	10:30:08	01:03:27	05:39:24	03:33:22	150
	Vanessa Pereira	POR	n/a	10:44:57	01:02:41	05:43:14	03:45:26	161
9	Venla Koivula	FIN	n/a	11:14:56	01:00:38	05:32:24	04:15:48	(165)
	Ewa Bugdol	POL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Kaisa Lehtonen	FIN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Hanna Maksimova	BLR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Chino Nishimura	JPN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Mauren Solano	CRC	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Annie Thoren	SWE	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on the Ironman-distance results, Dirk Bockel is a step above the rest of the field. I hope that he has recovered from the injuries that he was dealing with in the last years – too often he had one good result and then had to take some time off. He is challenged by a long list of European athletes such as Henrik Hyldelund (last year’s winner of IM Copenhagen), Patrik Nilsson (winner of IM Malaysia), Joe Skipper (having just delivered a fantastic race at IM Texas) and Martin Jensen (hopefully recovered from his injury after Challenge Dubai) and legends such as Ronnie Schildknecht or Rasmus Henning. Australia is represented Joe Gambles, Peter Robertson and Josh Amberger. If all these athletes actually start, it’ll be a very interesting race!

• Dirk Bockel: 34% (2-1)
• Henrik Hyldelund: 12% (7-1)
• Patrik Nilsson: 12% (7-1)
• Ronnie Schildknecht: 10% (9-1)
• Joe Gambles: 7% (13-1)
• Cyril Viennot: 7% (13-1)
• Rasmus Henning: 7% (14-1)
• Joe Skipper: 5% (18-1)
• Martin Jensen: 3% (37-1)

Female Race Participants

Mary Beth Ellis is the clear favorite – it’ll be interesting to see if she’ll actually start and what form she’ll be in after her recent switch back to Brett Sutton coaching. Behind MBE, there are a number of Swedish athletes that would love to keep the title in their home country. Ariane Monticelli is the only notable non-European athlete in the field (other than MBE).

• Mary Beth Ellis: 70% (1-1)
• Asa Lundstroem: 18% (4-1)
• Ariane Monticeli: 5% (19-1)
• Eva Nystroem: 4% (24-1)
• Camilla Lindholm: 2% (50-1)

Here is a look at the top Kona contenders after IM Brasil (end of May).

Male

At this point, the male race looks is a dead heat between the last two year’s winners, Frederik Van Lierde and Sebastian Kienle. The statistical “front runner status” will be decided when they face off in Frankfurt – but regardless of that result they will both be strong contenders for this year’s Kona win.

Brent McMahon’s two sub-8 IMs (even on fast courses in Arizona and Brasil) have pit him in a good position to at least content for a podium spot. Ivan Rana has added a good IM South Africa to his resume and has enough time to focus on Kona. Craig Alexander, Pete Jacobs and Andreas Raelert are included on the strength of their previous Kona results while Nils Frommhold is one who could surprise if he continues his development over the full distance.

• Frederik Van Lierde: 24% (3-1)
• Sebastian Kienle: 24% (3-1)
• Brent McMahon: 9% (10-1)
• Ivan Rana: 7% (13-1)
• Craig Alexander: 4% (26-1)
• Pete Jacobs: 3% (29-1)
• Andreas Raelert: 3% (30-1)
• Nils Frommhold: 3% (31-1)

Most notable athletes missing in this list? Jan Frodeno has almost unlimited potential – but still needs to have a “good IM” – maybe Frankfurt? The US hopes don’t have good statistical chances: Andy Potts, Tim O’Donnell, Ben Hoffman or Matt Hanson are all at less than 1%. Jordan Rapp only has an outside chance to qualify after his DNF in Texas (even a win in a P-2000 race would probably leave him just short) and Andrew Starykowicz seems to focus on Challenge Roth this year.

Female

On the female side, Mirinda Carfrae is the clear favorite to defend her title. Rachel Joyce and Daniela Ryf (also starting in Frankfurt) are her strongest challengers.

These are followed by a couple of experienced athletes: Meredith Kessler, Caroline Steffen, Linsey Corbin (still looking to qualify after two DNSs in Regional Championships) and Leanda Cava would need a big step forward to a contend for a Kona win this year.

• Mirinda Carfrae: 41% (1-1)
• Rachel Joyce: 20% (4-1)
• Daniela Ryf: 12% (7-1)
• Meredith Kessler: 7% (13-1)
• Caroline Steffen: 5% (19-1)
• Linsey Corbin: 3% (36-1)
• Leanda Cave: 2% (46-1)

As always, there is a ton of athletes that could content for a Top5 or better. Among these, I would pick Jodie Swallow and Angela Naeth as serious podium contenders. But sometimes Kona rookies have a great first year and maybe Mel Hauschildt, Susie Cheetham or Annabel Luxford could also play a factor.