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Ironman South Africa 2015 – Analyzing Results

Conditions on Race Day

After the course changes in 2014, we’ve had very similar conditions this year: An adjustment of -15:21 compared to -15:12 this year indicates a very slow course, mainly because of a pretty hard bike. From what I’ve heard, the wind was again blowing from an Easterly direction making the bike harder. Maybe we’ll have a different direction next year, possibly making the course a bit faster.

Male Race Results

Fredrik Van Lierde put up a clinic: After a solid swim he posted a fast bike ride (more than 11 minutes quicker than the second fastest by his country man Bart Aeronauts), followed by a sub-2:50 marathon without any pressure on him. He won by almost 15 minutes in front of Ivan Rana who posted the fastest run. Bart Aernouts didn’t quite find his speedy run legs, but was able to secure his Kona slot finishing third. Matt Trautmann ran through the field to claim fourth place, while Eneko Llanos had to settle for fifth place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 00:49:20 04:32:45 02:49:45 08:16:35 -18:57 US$ 30000
2 Ivan Rana ESP 00:49:28 04:48:22 02:48:44 08:30:45 -10:59 US$ 15000
3 Bart Aernouts BEL 00:52:07 04:44:30 02:55:04 08:35:59 -04:07 US$ 8000
4 Matt Trautman ZAF 00:51:57 04:48:01 02:53:10 08:37:21 -04:10 US$ 6500
5 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:49:36 04:47:44 02:55:42 08:37:50 01:05 US$ 5000
6 Bas Diederen NED 00:49:31 04:46:56 02:56:51 08:38:14 -04:41 US$ 3500
7 David Mcnamee GBR 00:49:27 04:54:41 02:54:55 08:43:35 n/a US$ 2500
8 Cyril Viennot FRA 00:51:57 04:47:28 03:01:11 08:45:55 -02:34 US$ 2000
9 Victor Del Corral ESP 00:56:19 04:55:15 02:51:15 08:47:10 -02:34 US$ 1500
10 James Cunnama ZAF 00:51:34 04:51:53 02:59:54 08:47:45 -03:15 US$ 1000
11 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:49:34 04:46:39 03:08:04 08:48:43 00:11
12 Andrej Vistica CRO 00:52:03 04:49:50 03:03:20 08:49:55 -09:04
13 Marc Duelsen GER 00:52:00 04:55:14 03:02:48 08:54:15 05:33
14 Michael Ruenz GER 00:53:26 05:01:43 02:57:31 08:57:42 -08:27
15 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 00:57:24 04:53:41 03:02:13 08:59:09 00:45
16 Johannes Moldan GER 00:51:52 04:50:39 03:16:42 09:03:29 n/a
17 David Plese SLO 00:52:09 04:57:09 03:10:27 09:04:55 12:36
18 TJ Tollakson USA 00:49:42 04:55:15 03:16:04 09:06:24 15:14
19 Fraser Cartmell GBR 00:51:00 04:58:09 03:12:55 09:07:13 06:05
20 Michael Davidson ZAF 00:57:24 05:11:33 02:58:36 09:12:31 00:48
21 Greg Close USA 01:02:06 05:15:56 03:07:06 09:30:06 00:27
22 Bertrand Billard FRA 00:49:25 04:50:51 03:49:01 09:34:50 26:44
23 Jim Lubinski USA 01:00:04 05:12:48 03:18:13 09:36:50 -10:23
24 Urs Mueller SWI 00:58:17 05:16:50 03:20:04 09:39:39 n/a
25 Allan Hovda NOR 01:08:03 05:18:40 03:08:33 09:40:25 n/a
26 Alberto Casadei ITA 00:49:24 05:27:05 03:04:40 09:40:55 48:53
27 Kent Horner ZAF 00:49:26 05:13:53 03:33:05 09:41:03 09:35
28 Hannes Cool BEL 00:52:10 05:16:45 03:31:45 09:46:18 27:50
29 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 00:51:56 05:17:10 03:40:53 09:55:19 35:56
30 Gerhard De Bruin ZAF 00:54:34 05:27:39 03:32:28 09:59:57 -00:34
31 Craig Twigg GBR 00:52:04 05:07:52 04:51:17 10:58:18 1:10:15
Sylvain Sudrie FRA 00:49:05 04:49:54 DNF
Till Schramm GER 00:58:27 05:13:04 DNF
Trevor Delsaut FRA 00:52:13 05:31:00 DNF
Frederik Flagstad GRL 01:26:38 07:50:05 DNF
Johann Ackermann GER 00:49:19 DNF
Mike Aigroz SUI 00:49:21 DNF
Konstantin Bachor GER 00:49:32 DNF

Female Race Results

Finally, Jodie Swallow put together an all around solid race in her „home IM“: Her usual fast swim was followed by a controlled bike, still putting her in the lead in T2 but only by about two minutes. She then was able to post a good 3:10 marathon (about 9 minutes quicker than last year), extending the lead to more than eight minutes at one point. Speedy runners Lucy Gossage (3:06) and Susie Cheetham (3:03) managed to overtake the earlier chasers Camilla Pedersen and Diana Riesler. This allowed the British athletes to claim all spots on the podium!

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Jodie Swallow GBR 00:50:17 05:20:58 03:10:56 09:26:56 -04:01 US$ 30000
2 Lucy Gossage GBR 00:59:35 05:20:12 03:06:04 09:31:20 -05:23 US$ 15000
3 Susie Cheetham GBR 00:57:52 05:25:54 03:03:38 09:33:02 -05:28 US$ 8000
4 Camilla Pedersen DEN 00:52:44 05:20:08 03:17:23 09:35:25 00:04 US$ 6500
5 Diana Riesler GER 00:58:02 05:16:00 03:18:58 09:38:16 -07:09 US$ 5000
6 Eva Wutti AUT 00:59:23 05:20:44 03:15:24 09:40:22 14:48 US$ 3500
7 Britta Martin NZL 00:59:05 05:31:13 03:09:47 09:45:33 -02:07 US$ 2500
8 Astrid Ganzow GER 01:01:26 05:25:43 03:18:03 09:50:29 -05:58 US$ 2000
9 Caitlin Snow USA 00:59:43 05:36:49 03:12:40 09:55:03 09:50 US$ 1500
10 Sonja Tajsich GER 01:03:09 05:27:20 03:25:52 10:01:37 14:07 US$ 1000
11 Eleanor Haresign GBR 00:59:37 05:39:37 03:24:27 10:11:04 -07:48
12 Caroline Livesey GBR 01:02:49 05:40:36 03:25:59 10:15:14 n/a
13 Jessica Meyers USA 01:02:44 05:46:42 03:25:27 10:20:19 09:32
14 Amber Ferreira USA 00:59:36 05:30:16 03:49:30 10:25:30 21:27
15 Nina Pekerman ISR 00:59:38 05:59:25 03:33:32 10:39:12 11:26
16 Alyssa Godesky USA 01:08:13 05:58:31 03:31:18 10:44:35 -09:28
17 Maria Lemeseva RUS 01:15:47 06:10:13 03:33:12 11:06:56 46:24
18 Riana Robertson ZAF 01:00:54 06:11:18 03:56:22 11:14:03 n/a
Corina Hengartner SWI 01:02:41 05:46:57 DNF
Stefanie Adam BEL 00:59:40 05:57:43 DNF
Anne Basso FRA 00:59:38 05:59:50 DNF
Lucie Reed CZE 00:54:48 DNF
Tine Deckers BEL 01:02:36 DNF

Ironman Melbourne 2015 – Analyzing Results

Conditions on Race Day

In the past, weather troubles such as wind (shortened swim in 2013) or lots of rain (first edition in 2012) made the course a bit harder. This year the conditions seemed almost perfect: A calm swim (allowing Marko Albert to post a new course record by four seconds) and not too windy on the bike (allowing Nils Frommhold to post a new bike record by almost two minutes). If there was any „criticism“ of the weather, the run was into a headwind. Overall, the race was a little bit slower than last year (adjustments of 13:57 vs. 15:02), leading to a new course rating of 12:43.

Live Coverage

This was the first time that the new GPS trackers were used for the Pro athletes and a new „Ironfan“ web page was deployed by Ironman. Here are a few observations:

  • There were some improvements: the leaderboard contained a couple of  new, helpful features such as the ability to sort. However, I do not understand why sorting by first name is useful (instead of by last name). Also, the leaderboard was only working off the timing mats, not the GPS data.
  • The Ironfan page showed a map-based tracker, but I couldn’t make much sense of the data that was shown. It appeared that the position of the athletes on the map was some kind of prediction based on previous time checks and earlier performances. Not useful at all.
  • There was a „secret“ website by the Quarq, the manufacturer of the unit. This site showed „live“ GPS data (athlete dots moving around on a map) and seemed to be working well. However, they did not have any leaderboard, resulting in the commentators focusing on the distance between athletes – not helpful at all, we need time differences! (It would require some work to extract this information from the GPS data, but shouldn’t be too difficult.)
There was a live show with two commentators (Greg Welch and Cameron Harper) that did a pretty good job (even if not as „lively“ as Michelle Vesterby, they totally knew what they were talking about). There were pictures from the course at about the same level as what we have seen in Kona (and from Challenge Bahrain and Dubai). The highlight were expert commentary and interviews by Emma Snowsill, Liz Blatchford and Jason Shortis. They inserted some canned ads in the show, but I felt them tolerable (even if the repetition made them worse and worse each time). The only time I found them annoying is when they showed them directly after the Top 3 women, so I missed the next women crossing the line. (Maybe I could have switched to a different stream.) Overall, I’d give the Live Coverage a „B“ – good job by Ironman, but still some room for improvement!

Male Race Results

After a quick swim without too much separation, Nils Frommhold and Luke Bell moved away from a big group of chasers, building an 11-minute lead. The big chase group probably made the pacing decisions  easier for some athletes new to the distance (such as Brad Kahlefeldt or Callum Millward) – it would have been great to see the impact of a 20m drafting rule here. After T2, Luke dropped back, eventually finishing in 15th place with a disappointing 4:16 marathon. For a long time, Nils looked like he had the race in the bag, but he also faded after 30k. Eventually Jeff Symonds proved to be the fastest runner, winning by three minutes over Tim Berkel who pushed the pace until the finish line. Brad Kahlefeldt showed that he can also run well over the marathon distance, posting the second fastest marathon and finishing in third place.

Christian Kramer was the fastest German in fourth place, followed by Nils and another IM rookie, Callum Millward in sixth place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Jeff Symonds CAN 00:49:40 04:27:30 02:44:14 08:04:29 -16:20
2 Tim Van Berkel AUS 00:48:06 04:27:17 02:49:20 08:07:57 -12:47
3 Brad Kahlefeldt AUS 00:45:29 04:31:00 02:49:15 08:09:21 n/a
4 Christian Kramer GER 00:46:47 04:29:25 02:51:27 08:11:31 -11:11
5 Nils Frommhold GER 00:45:28 04:19:08 03:04:48 08:12:58 11:32
6 Callum Millward NZL 00:46:57 04:29:04 02:54:12 08:14:16 n/a
7 Jan Van Berkel SUI 00:46:53 04:29:07 03:01:53 08:21:41 -17:22
8 Marko Albert EST 00:45:19 04:31:04 03:02:10 08:21:49 00:24
9 Per Bittner GER 00:49:41 04:27:31 03:04:42 08:25:17 -07:13
10 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 00:49:47 04:33:42 02:59:40 08:26:41 03:20
11 Jan Raphael GER 00:46:49 04:30:13 03:05:55 08:27:03 03:10
12 Casey Munro AUS 00:46:58 04:29:23 03:14:21 08:34:54 04:19
13 Simon Billeau FRA 00:55:23 04:28:37 03:11:03 08:38:28 -05:26
14 Brendan Naef CAN 00:57:42 04:41:12 03:05:42 08:49:34 -33:29
15 Luke Bell AUS 00:45:32 04:20:23 04:16:36 09:26:07 54:12
16 Lachlan Kerin AUS 00:49:38 04:46:29 03:45:14 09:26:07 n/a
17 Dan McGuigan AUS 01:01:25 04:42:44 03:52:51 09:42:07 n/a
Todd Skipworth AUS 00:45:20 04:31:11 DNF
Peter Robertson AUS 00:46:55 04:30:37 DNF
Joshua Rix AUS 00:50:21 04:45:46 DNF

Female Race Results

As for the men, there were two leaders on the female side as well: Caroline Steffen quickly caught up to the fastest swimmer, IM rookie Annabel Luxford. These two couldn’t build a big lead though, and Mel Hauschildt and Yvonne Van Vlerken followed them within four minutes onto the run course:

Mel

It wasn’t a big surprise that Mel would be the strongest runner of these four – she took the lead at about the half marathon mark. But she was struggling with blisters, stopped to apply Vaseline („that didn’t help at all“) and fought her way to the finish line to win in 8:52. Behind her, Caroline Steffen was feeling the effects of her food poisoning from two weeks ago and was slowing down. This allowed Yvonne Van Vlerken to overtake Caroline in the finish chute to take second place. Caroline stumbled over the finish line, was quickly taken to medical and couldn’t attend the podium ceremony.

Asa Lundstroem was solid all day and finished fourth, while Beth Gerdes continues her string of amazing improvements (first sub-5 bike and again fastest run) in fifth place. In sixth and seventh place rookie Annabel Luxford crossed the line with her good friend Mirinda Carfrae (who safely validated her Kona slot while not taking any risks after catching the flu earlier in race week).

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 00:54:44 04:48:01 03:06:32 08:52:51 -33:20
2 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 00:59:52 04:44:28 03:10:54 08:58:58 -00:49
3 Caroline Steffen SUI 00:52:43 04:45:38 03:16:40 08:59:08 03:01
4 Asa Lundstroem SWE 01:00:20 04:48:10 03:10:37 09:02:49 -18:07
5 Beth Gerdes USA 01:00:22 04:55:13 03:05:56 09:05:08 -26:20
6 Annabel Luxford AUS 00:51:21 04:47:12 03:26:07 09:08:35 n/a
7 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 00:54:44 05:00:58 03:08:39 09:08:39 19:06
8 Ashley Clifford USA 00:54:48 05:04:59 03:15:21 09:19:00 -08:08
9 Emma Pooley GBR 01:08:45 04:44:33 03:21:47 09:20:29 00:40
10 Bree Wee USA 00:52:43 05:00:06 03:24:43 09:21:56 -05:43
11 Mareen Hufe GER 01:00:23 04:48:08 03:32:16 09:24:33 02:25
12 Kym Coogan AUS 00:54:38 05:10:55 03:31:28 09:40:29 05:02
13 Kristy Hallett AUS 01:00:34 05:08:39 03:37:15 09:51:00 -18:50
14 Marina Jurjevic AUS 01:03:34 04:57:20 03:48:46 09:54:18 n/a
15 Jessica Mitchell AUS 01:00:27 05:19:00 03:52:30 10:22:07 n/a
Laura Bennett USA 00:53:02 DNF
Natasha Van der Merwe USA 01:00:26 DNF
Stephanie Jones USA 01:00:30 DNF

Announcing the 2015 KPR Observer

The Pro qualifying for Kona 2015 is getting into its final, decisive weeks. To learn more about how the KPR works, check out the short video below on the KPR. To follow the KPR and the athletes qualifying for Kona at the end of the qualifying cycle, you purchase the KPR Observer for the reduced end-of-season price of 19$ at https://gum.co/2015KPR.

The Kona Pro Ranking (or KPR for short) is the system used to determine which Professional triathletes qualify for the Ironman World Championships in Kona.

2015Title Thumb

My 2015 KPR Observer makes understanding and following the KPR rankings easy. It consists of an Initial Information Package about the KPR and ongoing updates via EMail during the season.

Here’s a ten minute video with an overview of the KPR and the information you’ll receive in the KPR Observer:

The Initial Information Package(delivered at the time of purchase) contains:

  • a description of how the KPR works in qualifying Pros for Kona
  • base predictions of the men’s and women’s cutoff
  • graphs and descriptions of the current KPR standings

During the season, there will be at least six EMail Updates (and probably ten) about the KPR Standings, who is already in, who is close to qualifying, how many slots are still open and updated estimates of where the cutoffs will occur. (Some more details can be found in the post on “KPR Observer Preview“.)

If you want to qualify as a Pro, coach a Pro athlete, write about professional Ironman racing or are otherwise interested in the KPR, this is must-read information and will help you gain a much deeper insight into the KPR at a fraction of the time if you had to do it yourself!

You can order the 2015 KPR Observer at https://gum.co/2015KPR (or click on the picture above) for 29$.

Side Effects

In my day job as an IT consultant and programmer, one of the tricky things that we are dealing with is side effects – making a change on one side that has some unforeseen consequence at another point. Thinking through potential side effects is an important part of implementing changes. Another example of side effects is in medicine, where the intended effects of a drug have to be weighed against other, possibly adverse effects.

Side EffectsWhen discussing the inequality of Kona slots (50 for the men, 35 for the women), one also has to think of effects beyond the simple difference of slots. Most everyone comes up with the immediate consequence that women require more points than the men – in 2014 it was roughly 4.900 vs. 3.500 points that were required for a July slot, and of course that also required more racing by female Kona athletes than for the male Kona qualifiers.

However, there is another side effect of the inequality: It pushes female Pros into the bigger point races. Basically, it doesn’t make sense for most athletes that want to make it to Kona to race in a P-2000 race: Even winning two of these won’t be enough for a Kona slot. (The exception would be those athletes that already have a good chunk of points, e.g. after finishing well in Kona or from 70.3 champs. For example, Meredith Kessler raced and won Ironman Arizona in November and Ironman New Zealand in March – a strategy that only made sense because she had 2.185 points from 70.3 champs and another 1.500 from 70.3 Auckland).

You can see this push into bigger races on two sides:

  • Most P-2000 races will have a relatively small female field. For example, IM New Zealand only had seven females on the start line, even though it paid ten deep.
  • The Regional Championships will have stronger female fields. For example, Melbourne and South Africa have almost the same number of male and female starters (Melbourne: 21m/19f, South Africa: 48m/32f)

This means that neither the distribution in New Zealand nor in Melbourne should be considered the norm. Field sizes are not determined solely by the different numbers of Pros overall, but are also heavily influenced by the different roles that the races play in athlete’s plans to qualify for Kona.

In addition, I would suggest to consider the side effects that an overall reduction of Kona athletes (even with an equal slot distribution) would have: Limiting the field size to 30 male and 30 female athletes (as has been suggested) would push the required number of points to around 5.000 and also force the male athletes to race more. A lot of athletes won’t be able to race Kona to their full potential as they will still be tired from qualifying. This can’t be in everyone’s interest so a reduction in the number of slots would also require changes to the KPR system if we want to have a great Kona race. Unless we have some good suggestions on how to achieve that, I don’t like the idea of reducing slots. But I don’t like unequal slots either, and that has already been discussed for a long time without seeing any change …

Ironman South Africa 2015 (March 29th) – Predictions

LogoSAYou can submit your picks for this race on IM-Predictions.

Update March 28th: The day before the race, Linsey Corbin had to announce she won’t be able to start.

Update March 23rd: Based on the latest start list, there have been a few cancellations: Michael Weiss, Emanuele Ciotti, Will Clarke, Karol Dzalaj, Martin Jensen, Beth Shutt, Anja Beranek, Svetlana Blazevic, Amy Forshaw, Caroline Koll, Kathrin Walther.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2006 Gerrit Schellens (BEL) 08:36:06 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:46:38
2007 Gerrit Schellens (BEL) 08:33:05 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:22:01
2008 Stephen Bayliss (GBR) 08:18:23 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:27:48
2009 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:17:32 Lucie Reed (CZE) 09:16:32
2010 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:23:28 Sonja Tajsich (GER) 09:16:55
2011 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:05:36 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:33:56
2012 Clemente Alonso McKernan (ESP) 08:34:45 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:47:10
2013 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:11:24 Jessie Donavan (USA) 09:10:58
2014 Nils Frommhold (GER) 08:26:07 Simone Braendli (SUI) 09:31:54

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Nils Frommhold GER 00:48:17 04:37:12 02:55:59 08:26:07
2 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:49:53 04:41:03 02:57:33 08:32:39
3 Faris Al-Sultan GER 00:48:27 04:43:34 02:56:59 08:33:19

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Simone Braendli SUI 00:51:00 05:26:55 03:09:08 09:31:54
2 Lucy Gossage GBR 00:59:50 05:18:47 03:09:55 09:33:07
3 Jodie Swallow GBR 00:48:34 05:21:19 03:19:40 09:33:59

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:05:36 Raynard Tissink 2011-04-10
Swim overall 00:45:22 Anton Storm 2009-04-05
Bike overall 04:19:41 Raynard Tissink 2011-04-10
Run overall 02:45:48 Gerrit Schellens 2007-03-18
Total female 08:33:56 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10
Swim female 00:47:40 Lucie Reed 2009-04-05
Bike female 04:45:23 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10
Run female 02:52:54 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM South Africa is 02:32.

Race Adjustments for IM South Africa

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 -01:19 -05:30 -06:50 00:02 10 -01:19 -05:30 -06:50 00:02
2007 -04:20 -09:38 01:16 -01:19 20 -02:49 -07:34 -02:47 -00:38
2008 16:56 00:25 10:16 01:52 29 03:46 -04:54 01:34 00:12
2009 12:53 01:21 10:04 -01:03 24 06:03 -03:21 03:42 -00:07
2010 08:27 -00:56 07:35 01:33 28 06:31 -02:52 04:28 00:13
2011 12:08 -00:26 12:10 02:27 33 07:27 -02:27 05:45 00:35
2012 -12:53 -09:05 -09:57 02:26 23 04:33 -03:24 03:31 00:51
2013 06:17 -01:51 09:24 02:28 28 04:46 -03:12 04:15 01:03
2014 -15:21 -01:38 -12:46 -01:19 23 02:32 -03:02 02:21 00:47

KPR points and Prize Money

IM South Africa has 4000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 150k$. As a Regional Championship the Melbourne winners will receive an Automatic Qualifier spot for Kona 2015.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 2 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:18:40 08:19:33 00:49:59 04:31:12 02:52:29 3
2 40 Ivan Rana ESP 08:23:13 08:27:21 00:50:03 04:38:40 02:49:30 15
3 6 Bas Diederen NED 08:23:18 08:33:25 00:49:38 04:34:26 02:54:14 25
4 4 Michael Weiss AUT 08:23:32 08:31:05 00:56:29 04:25:37 02:56:26 18
5 33 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:24:09 08:22:10 00:50:45 04:33:39 02:54:45 5
6 5 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:24:39 08:38:47 00:51:32 04:30:27 02:57:40 39
7 1 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:26:37 08:33:41 00:53:01 04:35:17 02:53:19 26
8 18 James Cunnama ZAF 08:27:52 08:41:19 00:51:29 04:34:52 02:56:30 52
9 3 Bart Aernouts BEL 08:27:56 08:25:34 00:54:54 04:39:04 02:48:57 8
10 7 Matt Trautman ZAF 08:28:50 08:37:08 00:50:45 04:35:29 02:57:36 (36)
11 46 TJ Tollakson USA 08:32:31 08:40:56 00:51:37 04:33:18 03:02:35 51
12 21 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:33:47 08:34:53 00:57:51 04:40:16 02:50:40 31
13 23 Marc Duelsen GER 08:34:54 08:38:48 00:55:57 04:35:25 02:58:33 40
14 39 David Plese SLO 08:35:13 08:42:09 00:56:00 04:39:07 02:55:06 53
15 10 Konstantin Bachor GER 08:35:26 08:39:59 00:51:55 04:30:49 03:07:42 45
16 13 Fraser Cartmell GBR 08:35:38 08:45:44 00:50:50 04:34:20 03:05:27 60
17 14 Alberto Casadei ITA 08:36:02 08:46:02 00:49:54 04:41:45 02:59:22 (63)
18 30 Martin Jensen DEN 08:36:19 08:33:58 00:52:39 04:40:27 02:58:13 (28)
19 43 Boris Stein GER 08:38:57 08:37:36 00:59:01 04:37:22 02:57:35 37
20 9 Mike Aigroz SUI 08:38:59 08:47:16 00:50:43 04:38:41 03:04:36 72
21 22 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:41:05 08:48:39 00:55:45 04:43:54 02:56:26 80
22 25 Herve Faure FRA 08:41:14 08:50:38 00:53:30 04:39:59 03:02:45 (85)
23 41 Michael Ruenz GER 08:43:41 08:56:20 00:56:15 04:46:08 02:56:18 112
24 31 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 08:45:17 08:48:27 00:55:49 04:41:14 03:03:14 79
25 50 Andrej Vistica CRO 08:45:24 08:49:18 00:56:41 04:44:02 02:59:41 83
26 8 Johann Ackermann GER 08:45:58 09:04:27 00:51:01 04:45:03 03:04:55 (144)
27 44 Swen Sundberg GER 08:49:07 08:48:40 00:55:18 04:43:26 03:05:24 81
28 34 Carlos Lopez Diaz ESP 08:53:38 09:07:11 00:50:11 04:53:59 03:04:28 (153)
29 20 Michael Davidson ZAF 08:53:50 09:06:57 00:57:52 04:49:39 03:01:19 (151)
30 11 Bertrand Billard FRA 08:54:43 09:13:31 00:51:01 04:40:45 03:17:57 (186)
31 24 Karol Dzalaj SVK 08:56:39 09:08:46 00:56:38 04:41:21 03:13:40 167
32 28 Kent Horner ZAF 08:58:10 09:20:39 00:50:15 04:44:24 03:18:31 218
33 42 Till Schramm GER 08:58:27 09:34:56 00:58:51 04:41:50 03:12:46 (273)
34 19 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 09:03:59 09:13:32 00:51:41 04:45:25 03:21:53 186
35 27 Hannes Cool BEL 09:04:01 09:12:51 00:54:31 04:51:57 03:12:33 (186)
36 47 Craig Twigg GBR 09:11:39 09:46:47 00:55:42 04:42:52 03:28:04 320
37 17 Greg Close USA 09:13:36 09:19:08 00:59:20 04:59:43 03:09:33 209
38 35 Jim Lubinski USA 09:15:00 09:36:41 01:05:16 05:01:36 03:03:08 282
39 49 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 09:19:45 09:31:11 00:59:44 04:55:39 03:19:22 (258)
40 12 Gerhard De Bruin ZAF 09:42:21 09:55:22 00:59:16 05:03:51 03:34:14 (355)
41 32 Roman Krutina CZE 10:01:35 10:16:34 00:59:58 05:10:21 03:46:16 (416)
15 Emanuele Ciotti ITA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
16 Will Clarke GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
26 Frederik Flagstad GRL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
29 Allan Hovda NOR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
36 David Mcnamee GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
37 Johannes Moldan GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
45 Sylvain Sudrie FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
48 Urs Mueller SWI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Will Clarke has already announced that he will need some extra time to get in shape for an Ironman.

Martin Jensen hurt his leg sprinting for the finish line in Dubai, and he also won’t be able to start.

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 81 Eva Wutti AUT 09:11:10 09:14:44 01:00:10 04:57:13 03:08:46 6
2 51 Jodie Swallow GBR 09:12:40 09:14:59 00:50:34 04:59:09 03:17:57 7
3 75 Diana Riesler GER 09:17:53 09:40:35 01:00:33 04:56:17 03:16:03 44
4 52 Linsey Corbin USA 09:17:55 09:20:20 01:00:26 05:06:23 03:06:07 11
5 54 Lucy Gossage GBR 09:18:41 09:25:40 01:00:44 05:04:15 03:08:41 20
6 60 Tine Deckers BEL 09:18:50 09:33:00 01:01:13 05:02:39 03:09:58 30
7 38 Camilla Pedersen DEN 09:20:16 09:24:44 00:53:50 05:04:20 03:17:07 17
8 57 Anja Beranek GER 09:20:18 09:32:43 00:55:31 05:00:15 03:19:32 (30)
9 79 Sonja Tajsich GER 09:22:25 09:30:34 01:04:40 05:04:19 03:08:25 26
10 78 Caitlin Snow USA 09:22:55 09:28:28 00:57:58 05:18:16 03:01:41 21
11 72 Britta Martin NZL 09:26:12 09:31:11 01:01:54 05:10:32 03:08:47 28
12 74 Lucie Reed CZE 09:34:11 09:41:14 00:53:01 05:14:44 03:21:26 45
13 63 Astrid Ganzow GER 09:40:46 09:45:38 01:01:41 05:07:56 03:26:09 57
14 61 Amber Ferreira USA 09:41:03 09:46:26 00:58:25 05:17:55 03:19:43 58
15 53 Beth Shutt USA 09:51:17 09:53:13 01:03:54 05:22:48 03:19:35 71
16 55 Stefanie Adam BEL 09:53:32 10:14:24 00:59:01 05:05:52 03:43:39 (119)
17 67 Jessica Meyers USA 09:53:33 09:59:15 01:03:31 05:23:45 03:21:17 89
18 80 Kathrin Walther GER 09:57:39 10:20:34 01:03:13 05:15:02 03:34:24 135
19 70 Maria Lemeseva RUS 10:00:17 10:07:46 01:11:49 05:23:21 03:20:08 104
20 65 Eleanor Haresign GBR 10:00:26 10:13:45 01:03:32 05:14:35 03:37:19 (117)
21 56 Anne Basso FRA 10:01:30 10:27:55 01:00:35 05:24:59 03:30:56 151
22 73 Nina Pekerman ISR 10:01:41 10:15:52 01:02:38 05:23:07 03:30:56 120
23 58 Svetlana Blazevic SRB 10:07:28 10:13:53 00:55:03 05:26:56 03:40:29 117
24 69 Heather Leiggi USA 10:08:20 10:18:55 01:03:18 05:29:42 03:30:20 130
25 62 Amy Forshaw GBR 10:18:15 10:28:18 01:07:25 05:35:19 03:30:31 152
26 64 Alyssa Godesky USA 10:33:15 10:42:16 01:07:09 05:36:07 03:45:00 161
27 68 Caroline Koll ZAF 10:55:27 11:07:54 01:02:50 05:55:29 03:52:08 170
28 77 Linda Scattolin ITA 11:18:34 11:38:55 01:11:19 05:48:29 04:13:46 (175)
59 Susie Cheetham GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
66 Corina Hengartner SWI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
71 Caroline Livesey GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
76 Riana Robertson ZAF n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Linda Scattolin (together with ex-Pro Edith Niederfriniger) has been in a horrible bike crash while training and passed away.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Frederik Van Lierde has to be considered the favorite: He is a very solid athlete, and the only question is what shape he’ll be in this early in the year. Based on previous results, Ivan Rana is his main rival: His recent result in Kona was not what he was looking for, but even after a bad bike leg he still ran a very strong 2:44 marathon.

My expectation is that the race in South Africa will be made interesting by the local athletes that would love to win the title for their home country. Kyle Buckingham was close last year (he finished 2nd to Nils Frommhold), Matt Trautmann seems to be in great shape (he won IM Wales in 2014 and 70.3 South Africa earlier this year), and while James Cunnama has been struggling a bit in the last years, he has the potential for a great performance.

  • Frederik Van Lierde: 26% (3-1)
  • Ivan Rana: 19% (4-1)
  • Michael Weiss: 9% (11-1)
  • Kyle Buckingham: 7% (12-1)
  • James Cunnama: 6% (15-1)
  • Eneko Llanos: 6% (16-1)
  • Cyril Viennot: 5% (20-1)
  • Matt Trautman: 4% (21-1)
  • Victor Del Corral: 2% (45-1)

Female Race Participants

There are a number of female athletes with very good statistical chances that may not be on top of everybody’s list: Tine Deckers (unbeaten at IM France for years), Diana Riesler (recent winner of IM Malaysia) or Eva Wutti (fast, but often DNFs) have excellent chances to win the race on a good day.

Jodie Swallow has been  working hard to win South Africa, and as she lives and trains a lot in Stellenbosch, she will be the local favorite. Her last results have been very consistent, so this year she could finally take the top spot on the podium.

Linsey Corbin will make life hard for athletes mentioned so far – and she will want to finish better than her fourth place seeding. Lucy Gossage hasn’t had a great Kona last year, but is always very strong at the start of the season – and she was also very close to winning last year. A couple of German athletes – Sonja Tajsich Anja Beranek – are also looking for a great result in South Africa after some injury problems and missing Kona qualifying in 2014, as will Camilla Pedersen (winner of IM Germany 2013).

  • Tine Deckers: 26% (3-1)
  • Diana Riesler: 19% (4-1)
  • Eva Wutti: 16% (5-1)
  • Linsey Corbin: 14% (6-1)
  • Jodie Swallow: 10% (9-1)
  • Lucy Gossage: 5% (21-1)
  • Sonja Tajsich: 4% (26-1)
  • Anja Beranek: 3% (39-1)
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