Thorsten

Ironman Wisconsin 2014 – Analyzing Results

February 26, 2017

Race Conditions

This year was probably the last Pro race in Wisconsin. It had the fastest conditions that I’ve seen here so far: an adjustment of 6:47 was way faster than the course rating of -3:36. It helped Daniel Bretscher to post a new course record, and female winner Britta Martin was only three minutes slower than Gina Crawford’s course record of 9:27.

Male Race Results

Konstantin Bachor was leading the race into T2, and was able to hold the lead until about the 16 mile mark. Then his wheels came off a little bit, and Daniel Bretscher managed to take the lead. He was able to win the race even if Brandon Marsh closed the gap to just a minute in the last section of the run. Pedro Gomes managed to take the third spot on the podium.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Daniel Bretscher	USA	00:52:16	04:42:57	02:50:14	08:31:20	-23:20
2	Brandon Marsh	USA	00:47:52	04:46:54	02:51:06	08:32:23	-14:54
3	Pedro Gomes	POR	00:52:17	04:42:51	02:55:41	08:36:56	-16:02
4	Konstantin Bachor	GER	00:52:16	04:31:14	03:08:27	08:38:42	-01:17
5	Matt Hanson	USA	00:53:32	04:55:17	02:55:42	08:50:16	-00:09
6	Karol Dzalaj	SVK	00:52:24	04:51:03	03:09:40	08:59:38	-10:20
7	Jared Milam	USA	00:56:33	04:58:49	03:07:11	09:08:47	-12:29
8	Adam Bohach	USA	00:59:09	05:08:37	03:03:28	09:18:11	00:06
9	Ryan Rau	USA	00:59:50	05:10:18	03:03:11	09:18:59	-03:58
10	Nick Early	USA	00:52:20	04:56:29	03:28:17	09:23:24	n/a
11	Blake Becker	USA	00:52:27	05:10:43	03:42:57	09:52:33	27:31
12	Jared Woodford	USA	00:52:27	05:13:44	03:45:02	09:58:31	-23:43
13	Paul Eicher	USA	00:52:34	04:59:33	03:59:03	09:59:43	-03:16
14	Jeremy Howard	USA	00:52:19	05:34:10	03:40:52	10:13:52	-00:51
15	Andres Castillo	COL	00:47:54	05:14:59	04:05:48	10:15:29	1:10:07
16	Thomas Gerlach	USA	00:56:30	04:47:29	04:27:38	10:17:36	1:21:23
17	Jason Smith	USA	00:57:22	05:23:26	04:09:13	10:37:12	n/a

Female Race Results

On the women’s side, Britta Martin won the race by more than 10 minutes in front of Tamara Kozulina. Ashley Clifford ran herself into the third place.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Britta Martin	NZL	00:59:13	05:15:26	03:08:40	09:30:08	-01:36
2	Tamara Kozulina	UKR	01:04:13	05:15:52	03:14:15	09:41:16	02:47
3	Ashley Clifford	USA	00:56:29	05:32:10	03:09:36	09:45:10	05:41
4	Ariane Monticeli	BRA	01:04:11	05:30:17	03:04:11	09:49:40	-04:18
5	Jackie Arendt	USA	00:56:28	05:30:23	03:29:30	10:03:58	15:39
6	Jessica Smith	USA	00:57:12	05:28:10	03:57:02	10:29:41	18:59
7	Tami Ritchie	USA	00:52:31	05:46:48	03:54:57	10:42:13	-01:19
8	Andrea Hutchins	USA	01:11:25	05:53:43	03:34:19	10:49:36	n/a
9	Palmira Alvarez	MEX	01:11:07	05:46:25	03:52:58	10:58:55	-18:25
	Kim Schwabenbauer	USA	01:04:18	05:21:28		DNF

Triathlete Kona Preview – Now available!

September 10, 2014

Triathlete October

Triathlete Magazine asked me to provide my input for the Kona Preview in their October issue which has just hit the newsstands.I really enjoyed writing about some of the contenders in the race and how different scenarios might play out.

You can download an electronic version of my Kona preview, and there is a lot more content in the magazine. I really enjoyed a discussion about Kona and preparing for the race by the top-notch coaches Siri Lindley, Dave Scott, and Matt Dixon.

I’ll expand on my thoughts in my upcoming Kona Rating Report (already available for pre-order).

Ironman Hawaii 2014 – Pro Startlists

February 26, 2017

At the end of the qualifying period and handling all rolldowns, the Pro start lists for Kona are finalized. At this point, there can be no more additions to the list – when athletes can’t start there won’t be any more rolldowns.

At this point, the bibs are preliminary and based on the procedure WTC used in the last years to assign the bibs (last year’s winner gets #1 or #101, the rest according to KPR rankings, and #13 is not assigned). As soon as an official bib list is available, I’ll update the numbers as necessary.The bibs are now based on the official start list published on ironman.com.

I plan to update this post (based on the original pro list from Ironman.com) with new developments, so that it always reflects the current information.

Updates

Aug 31st: Cameron Brown has declined his slot, and Andreas Raelert managed to get a last minute slot.
Sep 10th: Domenico Passuello decided he did not want his slot. This rolled the slot to Markus Thomschke – who didn’t want it. Then it rolled to Paul Ambrose who accepted:

Withdrawals

As usual, some athletes are qualified for Kona, but run into issues in their final Kona prep and can’t recover in time for a Kona start:

Melissa Hauschildt
Melissa was dealing with a torn pec tendon since 70.3 Champs and has withdrawn for Kona (announced on Oct 3rd). “The diagnosis from the doctor in Boulder after x-rays and ultrasound, is a torn pec, intercostals and connective tissue and a subluxed rib. It’s on the mend. I can now ride completely pain free. I can run, although fast running flares it up a little.” (More at witsup.com)
Peter Robertson
Robbo was training for Kona when he hit the deck hard and broke his clavicle:

He announced his withdrawal on Sept 29th.
Jessie Donavan
Jessie has been dealing with leg issues (“sciatic nerve inflammation”) for most of the season. She describes in her blog post “To Kona or Not to Kona” how she finally decided not to race.
David Dellow
David is apparently out of the race with an injury (as reported by firstoffthebike).

Male Race Participants

Bib	Name	Nation	Age
1	Frederik Van Lierde	BEL	35
2	Luke McKenzie	AUS	33
3	Sebastian Kienle	GER	30
4	Bart Aernouts	BEL	30
5	Tyler Butterfield	BMU	31
6	Timothy O’Donnell	USA	34
7	Ivan Rana	ESP	35
8	James Cunnama	ZAF	31
9	Jan Frodeno	GER	33
10	Terenzo Bozzone	NZL	29
11	Craig Alexander	AUS	41
12	Pete Jacobs	AUS	32
14	Victor Del Corral	ESP	34
15	Andy Potts	USA	37
16	Michael Weiss	AUT	33
17	Igor Amorelli	BRA	30
18	Matthew Russell	USA	31
19	Joe Gambles	AUS	32
20	Tim Van Berkel	AUS	30
21	Daniel Halksworth	GBR	28
22	Chris McDonald	AUS	36
23	David Plese	SLO	31
24	Marino Vanhoenacker	BEL	38
25	Eneko Llanos	ESP	37
26	Maik Twelsiek	GER	33
27	Elliot Holtham	CAN	30
28	Faris Al-Sultan	GER	36
29	TJ Tollakson	USA	34
30	Paul Matthews	AUS	31
31	Andrew Starykowicz	USA	32
32	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	31
33	Marek Jaskolka	POL	38
34	Richie Cunningham	AUS	41
35	Christian Kramer	GER	31
36	Jeremy Jurkiewicz	FRA
37	David Dellow	AUS	35
38	Cyril Viennot	FRA	32
39	~~Peter Robertson~~	~~AUS~~	38
40	Filip Ospaly	CZE	38
41	Ben Hoffman	USA	31
42	Christian Brader	GER	34
43	Nils Frommhold	GER	28
44	Justin Daerr	USA	33
45	Kyle Buckingham	ZAF	30
46	Romain Guillaume	FRA	29
47	Marko Albert	EST	35
48	Bevan Docherty	NZL	37
49	Daniel Fontana	ITA	38
50	Timothy Reed	AUS	29
51	Axel Zeebroek	BEL	36
52	Boris Stein	GER	29
53	Ronnie Schildknecht	SUI	35
54	Andreas Raelert	GER	38
55	Paul Ambrose	GBR	30

Female Race Participants

Bib	Name	Nation	Age
101	Mirinda Carfrae	AUS	33
102	Rachel Joyce	GBR	36
103	Meredith Kessler	USA	36
104	Liz Blatchford	GBR	34
105	Caroline Steffen	SUI	36
106	Gina Crawford	NZL	33
107	Yvonne Van Vlerken	NED	35
108	Linsey Corbin	USA	33
109	Caitlin Snow	USA	32
110	Elizabeth Lyles	USA	36
111	Leanda Cave	GBR	36
112	Daniela Ryf	SUI	27
113	Amber Ferreira	USA	32
~~114~~	~~Melissa Hauschildt~~	~~AUS~~	31
115	Sara Gross	CAN	38
116	Catriona Morrison	GBR	37
117	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	37
118	Melanie Burke	NZL
119	Asa Lundstroem	SWE	30
120	Beth Shutt	USA	35
121	Michelle Vesterby	DEN	31
122	Kristin Moeller	GER	30
123	Lucy Gossage	GBR	34
124	Amanda Stevens	USA	37
125	Jodie Swallow	GBR	33
126	Sofie Goos	BEL	34
127	Natascha Badmann	SUI	47
128	Julia Gajer	GER	32
129	Lisa Roberts	USA	35
130	Corinne Abraham	GBR	36
131	Simone Braendli	SUI	34
132	Jackie Arendt	USA	30
133	Kim Schwabenbauer	USA	35
134	Bree Wee	USA	34
~~135~~	~~Jessie Donavan~~	~~USA~~	38
136	Heather Wurtele	CAN	35
137	Kelly Williamson	USA	36
138	Katja Konschak	GER	36

Ironman Wisconsin 2014 (Sept 7th) – Predictions

February 26, 2017

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Andriy Yastrebov (UKR)	09:01:34	Ute Mueckel (GER)	10:11:22
2006	Markus Forster (GER)	09:07:24	Katja Schumacher (GER)	10:01:22
2007	Maik Twelsiek (GER)	08:52:49	Gina Crawford (NZL)	09:37:03
2008	Chris McDonald (AUS)	08:43:29	Hillary Biscay (USA)	09:47:25
2009	Raynard Tissink (ZAF)	08:45:19	Amy Marsh (USA)	09:43:59
2010	Joe Gambles (AUS)	08:38:32	Gina Crawford (NZL)	09:27:26
2011	Ezequiel Morales (ARG)	08:45:18	Jessica Jacobs (USA)	09:41:03
2012	Ben Hoffman (USA)	08:32:51	Elizabeth Lyles (USA)	09:34:35
2013	Maik Twelsiek (GER)	08:40:15	Jackie Arendt (USA)	09:47:07

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Maik Twelsiek	GER	00:52:38	04:34:58	03:06:09	08:40:15
2	Daniel Bretscher	USA	00:53:00	04:49:15	02:57:26	08:46:00
3	Elliot Holtham	CAN	00:55:48	04:48:08	03:00:53	08:50:45

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Jackie Arendt	USA	00:57:00	05:27:30	03:16:03	09:47:07
2	Beth Shutt	USA	01:01:16	05:29:28	03:15:50	09:53:42
3	Malaika Homo	USA	00:56:41	05:23:03	03:32:38	09:58:49

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:32:51	Ben Hoffman	2012-09-09
Swim	overall	00:44:56	John Flanagan	2010-09-12
Bike	overall	04:34:58	Maik Twelsiek	2013-09-08
Run	overall	02:50:21	Maximilian Longree	2010-09-12
Total	female	09:27:26	Gina Crawford	2010-09-12
Swim	female	00:48:41	Linda Gallo	2005-09-11
Bike	female	05:12:50	Gina Crawford	2010-09-12
Run	female	02:59:33	Elizabeth Lyles	2012-09-09

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Wisconsin is – 05:52.

Race Adjustments for IM Wisconsin

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2005	-16:31	00:20	-08:43	-09:50	14	-16:31	00:20	-08:43	-09:50
2006	-19:50	-03:33	-17:21	-02:58	22	-18:10	-01:36	-13:02	-06:24
2007	-01:51	-03:52	-04:28	03:31	33	-12:44	-02:22	-10:11	-03:06
2008	01:44	-00:39	-02:13	02:39	28	-09:07	-01:56	-08:11	-01:40
2009	-04:49	-01:30	-01:14	-02:58	25	-08:15	-01:51	-06:48	-01:55
2010	00:22	-01:19	-01:22	01:39	24	-06:49	-01:45	-05:54	-01:20
2011	-07:38	-01:43	-01:48	-04:09	19	-06:56	-01:45	-05:19	-01:44
2012	-06:05	-01:37	-00:17	-00:03	23	-06:50	-01:44	-04:41	-01:31
2013	01:50	-03:17	-00:51	02:54	22	-05:52	-01:54	-04:15	-01:02

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Wisconsin has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	11	Konstantin Bachor	GER	08:43:30	08:37:53	00:49:06	04:29:58	03:11:52	41
2	17	Matt Hanson	USA	08:53:47	08:48:03	00:55:48	04:56:56	02:48:48	71
3	2	Brandon Marsh	USA	08:57:53	08:52:06	00:47:28	04:47:13	03:10:21	86
4	1	Daniel Bretscher	USA	09:00:16	08:54:28	00:50:51	04:48:31	03:06:53	98
5	3	Pedro Gomes	POR	09:03:01	08:57:11	00:51:22	04:50:58	03:10:02	115
6	6	Thomas Gerlach	USA	09:05:40	08:59:48	00:54:13	04:45:24	03:13:32	127
7	13	Andres Castillo	COL	09:11:09	09:05:14	00:47:46	04:53:45	03:19:57	(151)
8	14	Karol Dzalaj	SVK	09:14:24	09:08:27	00:53:30	04:49:17	03:18:52	170
9	5	Guy Crawford	NZL	09:17:08	09:11:09	00:49:45	04:50:58	03:29:00	183
10	18	Chad Holderbaum	USA	09:17:21	09:11:22	00:54:57	04:54:12	03:13:28	184
11	12	Adam Bohach	USA	09:23:27	09:17:24	00:55:02	05:03:15	03:11:33	199
12	10	Jared Milam	USA	09:24:36	09:18:32	00:54:13	05:05:02	03:13:36	203
13	8	Ryan Rau	USA	09:27:33	09:21:27	00:58:37	05:11:49	03:03:47	(212)
14	21	Ryan Bates	USA	09:34:59	09:28:48	00:53:00	04:52:57	03:22:42	(247)
15	4	Blake Becker	USA	09:36:48	09:30:36	00:53:14	05:01:05	03:32:44	253
16	20	Peter Kotland	USA	10:09:31	10:02:58	00:57:40	05:18:19	03:37:45	375
17	16	Paul Eicher	USA	10:10:35	10:04:01	00:53:42	05:01:00	03:46:01	(380)
18	19	Jeremy Howard	USA	10:14:30	10:07:54	00:52:18	05:19:02	03:33:38	(388)
19	7	Jared Woodford	USA	10:23:58	10:17:16	00:52:21	05:13:53	03:54:13	(418)
	9	Jason Smith	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	15	Nick Early	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	35	Britta Martin	NZL	09:43:09	09:36:53	00:59:57	05:11:01	03:16:00	34
2	32	Kim Schwabenbauer	USA	09:44:20	09:38:03	01:02:22	05:15:01	03:14:41	37
3	30	Ashley Clifford	USA	09:49:44	09:43:24	00:53:54	05:31:30	03:12:19	46
4	36	Tamara Kozulina	UKR	09:50:33	09:44:12	01:01:06	05:21:22	03:15:57	52
5	27	Jessica Jacobs	USA	09:55:56	09:49:32	01:06:05	05:15:23	03:19:57	64
6	34	Ariane Monticeli	BRA	09:57:45	09:51:20	01:02:09	05:30:56	03:17:45	70
7	26	Jackie Arendt	USA	10:00:20	09:53:53	00:54:59	05:27:46	03:22:29	76
8	39	Malaika Homo	USA	10:03:42	09:57:13	00:53:04	05:22:42	03:35:02	86
9	40	Jessica Smith	USA	10:14:48	10:08:12	00:54:19	05:26:24	03:40:40	102
10	28	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	10:21:31	10:14:50	00:57:49	05:31:19	03:40:21	121
11	33	Tami Ritchie	USA	10:48:14	10:41:16	00:52:06	05:57:33	03:46:09	151
12	38	Ali Black	USA	10:58:03	10:50:59	01:03:21	05:33:24	03:49:14	(157)
13	31	Palmira Alvarez	MEX	11:21:52	11:14:32	01:19:10	05:42:57	03:52:09	(162)
	37	Andrea Hutchins	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Konstantin Bachor: 53% (1-1)
Brandon Marsh: 21% (4-1)
Pedro Gomes: 15% (6-1)
Daniel Bretscher: 6% (16-1)
Thomas Gerlach: 3% (37-1)
Matt Hanson: 2% (64-1)

Female Race Participants

Britta Martin: 37% (2-1)
Jessica Jacobs: 14% (6-1)
Ariane Monticeli: 13% (7-1)
Tamara Kozulina: 12% (8-1)
Kim Schwabenbauer: 11% (8-1)
Ashley Clifford: 8% (11-1)
Jackie Arendt: 3% (37-1)
Kate Bevilaqua: 2% (64-1)

Women Pro Slots for Kona

August 28, 2014

Over the last weeks, there has been a lot of discussion around the issue of Women Pro slots for Kona. Tawnee and I have repeatedly discussed what was happening on our EndurancePlanet podcast, and I thought that this is a good time to sum up the recent developments and issues.

50WomenToKona

In the summer of 2013, the issue of extra Kona slots for women Pros has been raised by Rachel Joyce in a witsup article. Last year, the discussion never really gained momentum. Then in July 2014, a new Twitter account with the name of „50WomenToKona“ took up the issue, contacted a lot of triathletes, managed to get a lot of interest and is still actively pushing the issue.

To sum up the discussion, the argument for men to have more slots than women is based on the fact that there are more men participating in Ironman events, both at the age group and the Professional level. The counter arguments are that participation numbers shouldn’t determine the size of the field for Championship events, that the top end of the field of the women is as close as for the men, and that women simply deserve equal treatment in 2014.

Boulder Meeting (Early August)

With the mounting pressure around the number of Kona slots, a meeting was set up between WTC CEO Andrew Messick and a number of Pro women in the week before IM Boulder. Other Pros had the chance to at least listen to the discussion via a conference call. I was not part of this meeting, so I have to rely on the accounts of the meeting – mostly from interviews by Andrew (with Triathlete and with Slowtwitch) and an interview that Mirinda Carfrae did with Triathlete.

Among other things discussed, Andrew acknowledged the push for extra slots, but instead of agreeing to something specific, he indicated that

„[t]he women we talked to were not at all focused on a specific number, they just wanted it to be the same. So we’re going to look at that for 2015, [… asking] what is the right number of professional athletes that should be starting at the world championship.”

Since that interview, I have not seen this issue discussed in public except for a few tweets by Jordan Rapp, and no final decision has been announced by WTC.

Extra Slots for 2014?

Another issue discussed in the Boulder meeting was extra women Pro slots for 2014. I don’t have any official information on this, most of what is in the public was written by Jordan Rapp in a thread on the Slowtwitch forum.

Apparently, WTC offered extra WPRO slots for 2014 – either an extra 10 or 15 slots. (There is conflicting information about this.) I’m not aware of the specific procedure that these slots would have been assigned (e.g. how many extra July and/or August slots), but the Pro women were to agree whether or not to have extra slots for 2014. (Again, specific details are sketchy – was that just a majority decision or did a decision require unanimity?) In case the WPROs decided to accept the extra slots, they were expected to participate in a one-day event focused on „women issues“. (Once again, unclear if this was to be an internal workshop or a „PR event“ for WTC.) All of the Top 50 women were given a chance to weigh in (coordinated by Rachel Joyce), and the decision would be made by the athletes already qualified at that point (28 point slots at the end of July plus automatic qualifiers).

The extra slots didn’t get the required support, the main argument was that „moving the goalposts“ wouldn’t be fair: Some athletes raced another IM to make sure they qualify (e.g. Natascha Badmann and Kristin Möller who backed up in Switzerland after Germany), some decided to have a lighter schedule (e.g. Amy Marsh who tried to qualify with another 70.3 or Angela Naeth who decided against racing another IM). Other examples include Mareen Hufe who might not have DNF’d in Frankfurt after it was clear she would not get the points to get a spot in the Top 28 for July; and there are probably athletes – further away form the Top 28 or 35 – who might have added another race to their schedule.

Lots of Open Questions

As far as I can see, the only thing that seems certain is that there will be no changes in the number of WPRO slots for Kona 2014. We don’t have any hard announcements by WTC concerning 2015, neither regarding equality of slots nor a specific number of slots. There are a lot of other loose ends for Kona 2015 qualifying (apparently the number of races counting for the KPR score is also still open). We only have a few more days before the first Ironman with KPR points for Kona 2015 (Ironman Wisconsin on September 7th), and it would only be fair to all Pro athletes to know the rules for qualifying. I hope that WTC will soon announce more details and make things a bit more predictable!

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