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IM Melbourne 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

As always, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

As this is the first time that IM Melbourne is held, there are no previous results and also no expected finishing times. WTC has done a great job of building excitement for this race – touting it as the “Pacific Asian Championship” and designating it as 4000-points race has certainly helped. This results in large and strong fields for the PROs, even if the field is still a bit in motion with a couple of people entering the race after IM New Zealand became a 70.3.

Male Participants

The start list already shows a very large number of strong athletes, probably the strongest and deepest field we’ll see this year outside of Kona. In addition there is the issue of Craig Alexander: There were a lot of press releases announcing he would race, but as of March 11th he is not on the start list. Nonetheless, I have included him in my predictions:

Rank Name Nation Rating Rank
1 Craig Alexander AUS 08:17:41 2
2 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:22:36 5
3 Cameron Brown NZL 08:31:54 14
4 Clayton Fettell AUS 08:34:29 21
5 Marko Albert EST 08:35:26 23
6 Pete Jacobs AUS 08:37:47 27
7 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:41:10 33
8 Joe Gambles AUS 08:41:54 37
9 Mitchell Anderson AUS 08:44:34 49
10 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:45:23 54
11 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:48:05 72
12 Esben Hovgaard DNK 08:48:57 80
13 David Dellow AUS 08:49:45 85
14 Luke Bell AUS 08:50:49 88
15 Simon Billeau FRA 08:52:59 98
16 Matt White AUS 08:53:13 100
17 Jason Shortis AUS 08:55:42 112
18 Bert Jammaer BEL 08:57:19 118
19 Dan Brown PHI 08:58:05 123
20 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:58:07 123
21 Alejandro Santamaria ESP 09:01:00 140
22 Gudmund Snilstveit NOR 09:02:16 147
23 Lothar Leder GER 09:03:12 152
24 Joel Jameson GBR 09:04:34 157
25 Sergio Marques PRT 09:06:15 169
26 Joshua Rix AUS 09:08:36 187
27 Paul Wisniewski POL 09:15:22 227
28 Justin Granger AUS 09:17:24 248
29 Shinya Suganuma JPN 09:22:59 292
30 Romain Guillaume FRA 09:25:35 313
31 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:26:57 326
32 Oyvind Johannessen Nor 09:57:51 535
33 Bart Aernouts BEL unrated n/a
34 Jens Grønbek DEN unrated n/a
35 Johan Borg AUS unrated n/a
36 Paul Matthews USA unrated n/a
37 Fredrik Croneborg SWE unrated n/a
38 Greg Bennett USA unrated n/a
39 Todd Israel AUS unrated n/a
40 Sylvain Sudrie FRA unrated n/a
41 Finnbar Crennan AUS unrated n/a
42 Jens Petersen-Bach DNK unrated n/a

Here are the winning odds:

  1. Craig Alexander: 40%
  2. Eneko Llanos: 33%
  3. Pete Jacobs: 11%
  4. Luke Bell: 7%
  5. Cam Brown: 3%

Crowie is  the clear favorite for the race, relatively closely followed by Llanos. Pete Jacobs chances are “only” at 11% – he has had some up-and-don performances in the last years (which hurt his rating and his chances), but he has been very solid in the last two years. We also have Greg Bennett’s first start in an Ironman – which will be closely followed but impossible to predict.

I think the main deciding factor for this race will be how sharp the athletes are going to be in March. Crowie and Pete haven’t raced since Kona, Eneko has raced Arizona in November. Then you have Cam Brown who is always very sharp for IM New Zealand – so he may have a better chance than his odds indicate.

Update March 13th: Pete Jacobs had to pull out of the race with a back injury. I wish him a speedy recovery and look forward to see him race in one of the summer IMs!

Female Participants

The female field is as strong as the men’s field, we have the second to fifth of Kona 2011 – and with Chrissie not racing this year we have the main Kona contenders:

Rank Name Nation Rating Rank
1 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 09:10:23 2
2 Michelle Vesterby DNK 09:25:14 8
3 Rebekah Keat AUS 09:28:33 9
4 Caroline Steffen SWI 09:29:10 10
5 Leanda Cave GBR 09:29:37 12
6 Rachel Joyce GBR 09:29:47 15
7 Joanna Lawn NZL 09:36:41 25
8 Tine Deckers BEL 09:37:02 28
9 Amanda Stevens USA 09:37:58 32
10 Gina Crawford NZL 09:37:58 32
11 Michelle Mitchell AUS 09:41:52 42
12 Carrie Lester AUS 09:43:06 44
13 Belinda Granger AUS 09:44:11 46
14 Jessica Jacobs USA 09:45:49 48
15 Silvia Felt GER 09:52:56 67
16 Sara Gross CAN 09:56:12 74
17 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:59:18 83
18 Katja Rabe GER 10:01:26 86
19 Elly Franks AUS 10:09:20 116
20 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:23:57 170
21 Fernanda Keller BRA 10:38:01 199
22 Suzanne Blackborrow AUS 10:40:43 208
23 Conny Dauben GER 10:50:49 228
24 Marthe Eikre-Telle NOR unrated n/a
25 Kate Murphy AUS unrated n/a
26 Anja Beranek GER unrated n/a
27 Inka Wachter GER unrated n/a
28 Mareen Hufe GER unrated n/a
29 Dana Wagner GER unrated n/a

One highly ranked, but pretty unknown athlete is Michelle Vesterby: Her only result is a 9:11 in Arizona 2011 and it’ll be interesting to see if she can post a similar result in Melbourne.

The winning odds:

  1. Mirinda Carfrae: 50%
  2. Leanda Cave: 22%
  3. Caroline Steffen: 10%
  4. Rachel Joyce: 7%
  5. Rebekah Keat: 4%

This field almost has “Kona strength”, with the three top contenders also being the top contenders for Kona. Similar to the men, it’ll be very interesting to see how sharp the athletes will be for a March race coming off their season break.

Update March 21:  Leanda Cave also had to pull out of the race.

IM Melbourne 2012 – Details Post

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Rating Rank
1 Craig Alexander AUS 08:17:36 2
2 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:22:31 5
3 Cameron Brown NZL 08:32:01 14
4 Clayton Fettell AUS 08:35:03 22
5 Marko Albert EST 08:35:20 23
6 Pete Jacobs AUS 08:37:41 27
7 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:41:10 34
8 Joe Gambles AUS 08:41:48 37
9 Mitchell Anderson AUS 08:44:49 50
10 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:45:37 56
11 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:47:57 72
12 Esben Hovgaard DNK 08:48:50 81
13 David Dellow AUS 08:49:39 86
14 Luke Bell AUS 08:50:42 88
15 Matt White AUS 08:53:07 101
16 Simon Billeau FRA 08:53:24 103
17 Jason Shortis AUS 08:55:38 114
18 Bert Jammaer BEL 08:57:19 121
19 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:58:03 125
20 Dan Brown PHI 08:58:05 126
21 Alejandro Santamaria ESP 09:00:56 143
22 Gudmund Snilstveit NOR 09:02:12 148
23 Lothar Leder GER 09:03:11 154
24 Joel Jameson GBR 09:04:43 159
25 Sergio Marques PRT 09:06:09 171
26 Joshua Rix AUS 09:08:54 191
27 Paul Wisniewski POL 09:15:18 230
28 Justin Granger AUS 09:17:19 252
29 Shinya Suganuma JPN 09:23:40 302
30 Romain Guillaume FRA 09:25:28 318
31 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:26:46 329
32 Oyvind Johannessen Nor 09:57:43 546
33 Bart Aernouts BEL unrated n/a
34 Jens Grønbek DEN unrated n/a
35 Johan Borg AUS unrated n/a
36 Paul Matthews USA unrated n/a
37 Fredrik Croneborg SWE unrated n/a
38 Greg Bennett USA unrated n/a
39 Todd Israel AUS unrated n/a
40 Sylvain Sudrie FRA unrated n/a
41 Finnbar Crennan AUS unrated n/a
42 Jens Petersen-bach DNK unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Rating Rank
1 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 09:10:17 2
2 Michelle Vesterby DNK 09:25:10 9
3 Rebekah Keat AUS 09:28:21 10
4 Caroline Steffen SWI 09:29:22 12
5 Leanda Cave GBR 09:29:25 13
6 Rachel Joyce GBR 09:29:40 15
7 Joanna Lawn NZL 09:36:39 27
8 Tine Deckers BEL 09:36:57 29
9 Gina Crawford NZL 09:37:49 33
10 Amanda Stevens USA 09:37:53 34
11 Michelle Mitchell AUS 09:42:16 44
12 Carrie Lester AUS 09:43:26 45
13 Belinda Granger AUS 09:44:03 46
14 Jessica Jacobs USA 09:45:41 49
15 Silvia Felt GER 09:53:12 69
16 Sara Gross CAN 09:56:02 75
17 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:59:14 84
18 Katja Rabe GER 10:01:18 86
19 Elly Franks AUS 10:09:53 121
20 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:23:46 173
21 Fernanda Keller BRA 10:38:05 203
22 Suzanne Blackborrow AUS 10:42:09 215
23 Conny Dauben GER 10:50:44 231
24 Marthe Eikre-telle NOR unrated n/a
25 Kate Murphy AUS unrated n/a
26 Anja Beranek GER unrated n/a
27 Inka Wachter GER unrated n/a
28 Mareen Hufe GER unrated n/a
29 Dana Wagner GER unrated n/a

Results for Craig Alexander (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:03:56 08:05:50 08:17:36 1
IM Coeur d’Alene 2011-06-26 08:19:48 08:24:27 08:21:14 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:16:53 08:17:53 08:19:58 4
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:20:21 08:15:48 08:20:57 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:17:45 08:15:41 08:23:48 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:19:04 08:18:44 08:29:37 2
IM Australia 2007-04-08 08:38:48 08:42:14 08:42:14 3

Results for Eneko Llanos (ESP)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 07:59:38 08:11:37 08:22:31 1
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:08:20 08:13:31 08:24:13 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:22:02 08:23:02 08:25:54 7
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 08:02:33 08:19:17 08:26:20 3
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 08:37:43 08:35:43 08:27:29 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:37:55 08:33:12 08:25:57 14
IM Germany 2009-07-05 08:00:21 08:16:58 08:24:37 2
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:20:50 08:18:46 08:26:12 2
IM Germany 2008-07-06 08:00:49 08:19:21 08:27:41 2
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:26:00 08:25:40 08:29:36 7
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 08:06:06 08:25:45 08:30:31 2
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 08:49:39 08:47:31 08:31:46 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:22:28 08:18:47 08:26:18 5
IM Austria 2006-07-16 08:10:58 08:21:26 08:29:26 3
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 08:31:41 08:33:55 08:34:30 2
IM Germany 2005-07-11 08:38:00 08:35:08 08:35:08 4

Results for Cameron Brown (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Germany 2011-07-24 08:31:47 08:43:15 08:32:01 7
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 08:31:07 08:32:15 08:30:21 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:34:10 08:35:12 08:30:04 17
IM Germany 2010-07-04 08:18:33 08:30:11 08:29:15 4
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 08:21:52 08:27:36 08:29:06 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:53:41 08:48:50 08:29:22 22
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 08:18:05 08:25:31 08:25:34 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:26:17 08:24:11 08:25:34 5
IM Germany 2008-07-06 08:08:29 08:27:18 08:25:52 4
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 08:24:49 08:31:37 08:25:31 1
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 08:26:33 08:30:28 08:23:45 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:25:22 08:21:39 08:21:54 8
IM Germany 2006-07-23 08:13:40 08:23:07 08:21:59 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:19:36 08:19:06 08:21:29 2
IM Germany 2005-07-11 08:28:00 08:25:12 08:22:48 2
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 08:20:15 08:20:15 08:20:15 1

Results for Clayton Fettell (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:19:02 08:27:10 08:35:03 2
Challenge Cairns 2011-06-05 08:36:14 08:44:09 08:44:09 5

Results for Marko Albert (EST)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:35:18 08:37:19 08:35:20 13
IM Austria 2011-07-03 08:08:17 08:33:10 08:33:10 3

Results for Pete Jacobs (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:09:11 08:11:06 08:37:41 2
IM Australia 2011-05-01 08:29:28 08:37:10 08:41:28 1
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 08:21:16 08:32:38 08:42:05 3
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:23:26 08:24:26 08:43:28 9
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 08:08:56 08:25:53 08:46:32 4
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:30:15 08:25:36 08:50:13 8
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:02:01 08:21:25 08:54:19 2
IM Australia 2009-04-05 08:29:03 08:31:37 09:00:23 2
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:56:02 09:53:34 09:06:17 59
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:12:53 08:32:35 08:55:59 2
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 08:47:03 08:54:09 09:01:56 5
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 10:51:57 11:12:40 09:04:15 30
IM Korea 2007-08-26 10:07:57 09:51:45 09:04:15 10
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 08:09:18 08:29:05 08:47:56 3
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:38:12 08:34:24 08:57:05 17
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 09:28:35 09:31:04 09:12:13 17
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 09:06:47 08:52:11 08:52:11 2

Results for Frederik Van Lierde (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2011-06-26 08:28:30 08:32:13 08:41:10 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:31:43 08:32:44 08:43:39 14
IM France 2010-06-27 08:30:39 08:43:22 08:46:50 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:09:38 09:04:38 08:48:07 34
IM Austria 2009-07-05 08:26:58 08:42:35 08:41:02 5
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:34:34 08:41:17 08:40:01 9
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 08:31:35 08:38:28 08:38:28 2

Results for Joe Gambles (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:40:40 08:42:42 08:41:48 20
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 08:38:32 08:40:35 08:40:35 1

Results for Mitchell Anderson (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:35:57 08:44:22 08:44:49 7
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:04:35 08:59:38 08:44:57 31
IM Australia 2009-04-05 08:56:21 08:59:04 08:42:02 10
IM Australia 2008-04-06 08:40:18 08:42:58 08:38:32 2
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 08:12:19 08:27:58 08:37:44 3
IM Australia 2007-04-08 08:46:51 08:50:21 08:39:40 4
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 08:18:00 08:24:52 08:37:34 2
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:55:22 08:51:26 08:40:19 34
IM Austria 2006-07-16 08:30:16 08:41:09 08:37:22 9
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 08:27:35 08:29:48 08:36:09 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:37:29 08:36:58 08:38:30 14
IM Switzerland 2005-07-15 08:36:26 08:40:44 08:39:21 3
IM Australia 2005-04-08 08:37:51 08:37:51 08:37:51 3

Results for Luke McKenzie (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 09:03:44 09:12:36 08:45:37 11
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:25:42 08:27:41 08:41:51 9
IM Germany 2011-07-24 08:26:51 08:38:12 08:44:03 6
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:52:07 08:57:46 08:45:02 13
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 08:07:38 08:23:00 08:42:35 1
IM Florida 2009-11-07 08:37:59 08:53:49 08:45:55 7
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:38:38 08:33:55 08:44:35 15
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 08:26:01 08:28:55 08:46:42 2
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 08:12:45 08:26:41 08:50:54 3
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:02:17 09:00:02 08:56:40 29
IM Australia 2008-04-06 08:46:00 08:48:42 08:55:40 5
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:44:55 08:44:34 08:58:02 19
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 08:53:43 08:55:29 09:03:43 6
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:20:20 09:16:13 09:08:53 54
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 09:08:27 09:01:01 09:01:01 10

Results for Courtney Ogden (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 09:08:42 09:03:47 08:47:57 4
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:38:11 08:40:13 08:45:43 16
IM Australia 2011-05-01 08:49:56 08:57:56 08:46:33 5
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15 09:07:25 09:09:10 08:44:49 2
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 08:14:01 08:25:13 08:40:50 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:42:11 08:43:14 08:43:46 25
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 08:38:17 08:43:38 08:43:53 2
IM Australia 2010-03-28 08:35:54 08:43:40 08:43:57 3
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 08:22:06 08:36:51 08:44:02 4
IM Canada 2009-08-30 08:44:37 08:48:39 08:46:50 3
IM Canada 2008-08-24 08:47:04 08:53:53 08:45:48 8
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 08:19:15 08:35:07 08:39:55 7
IM Canada 2006-08-27 08:47:46 08:46:50 08:46:50 2

Results for Esben Hovgaard (DNK)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lanzarote 2011-05-21 08:54:37 08:49:53 08:48:50 3
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:31:29 08:47:36 08:47:36 8

Results for David Dellow (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Cairns 2011-06-05 08:41:39 08:49:39 08:49:39 6

Results for Luke Bell (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:12:22 08:17:35 08:50:42 3
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 08:21:33 08:32:56 08:57:08 4
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:24:34 09:25:42 09:02:07 51
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 08:43:16 08:48:40 08:56:21 4
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:26:26 09:30:47 08:58:35 19
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 09:15:09 09:30:51 08:49:01 18
IM Australia 2008-04-06 08:56:17 08:59:02 08:35:44 6
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 08:27:41 08:31:37 08:27:29 2
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:24:26 08:20:44 08:26:02 7
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 08:15:48 08:21:43 08:28:28 2
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:33:43 08:33:12 08:32:19 13
IM Australia 2005-04-08 08:31:17 08:31:17 08:31:17 2

Results for Matt White (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Cairns 2011-06-05 08:28:36 08:36:24 08:53:07 2
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 08:18:06 08:29:24 08:56:15 2
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 09:17:36 09:36:56 09:01:28 17
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 08:49:04 08:54:31 08:53:59 6
IM Australia 2010-03-28 08:36:39 08:44:25 08:53:51 4
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 08:35:03 08:50:10 08:56:53 5
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:07:59 09:03:00 08:59:41 33
IM Australia 2009-04-05 08:50:59 08:53:40 08:57:29 8
IM Australia 2008-04-06 08:59:49 09:02:35 09:02:35 7

Results for Simon Billeau (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:38:06 08:46:33 08:53:24 8
IM Germany 2011-07-24 08:43:58 08:55:42 08:55:14 11
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 08:40:37 08:52:26 08:55:05 8
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 08:53:49 09:01:40 08:56:02 8
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:14:07 09:09:05 08:53:36 38
IM France 2009-06-28 08:46:30 08:52:55 08:44:32 3
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 08:20:32 08:34:42 08:34:42 5

Results for Jason Shortis (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:27:31 08:35:48 08:55:38 3
IM Canada 2011-08-28 09:12:55 09:16:59 08:58:05 10
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 08:47:18 08:49:13 08:55:39 3
IM Australia 2011-05-01 08:46:07 08:54:04 08:56:34 3
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 10:12:54 10:16:09 08:56:58 13
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 08:34:52 08:42:26 08:45:23 4
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 08:37:20 08:52:31 08:45:50 6
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 08:58:09 08:57:32 08:44:47 3
IM Australia 2009-04-05 09:02:22 09:05:07 08:42:39 11
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 08:10:57 08:24:50 08:38:38 2
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 08:59:14 08:59:26 08:41:19 3
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 08:35:43 08:52:06 08:37:18 12
IM Australia 2007-04-08 08:25:33 08:28:54 08:34:05 2
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 08:03:55 08:10:35 08:35:14 1
IM Korea 2006-08-27 08:34:09 08:36:39 08:41:20 5
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 08:30:55 08:43:06 08:42:43 8
IM Australia 2006-05-11 08:36:08 08:34:07 08:42:34 3
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:57:06 08:56:34 08:47:47 36
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 08:27:25 08:38:10 08:38:10 8

Results for Bert Jammaer (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2011-08-28 08:42:34 08:46:24 08:57:19 3
IM Germany 2011-07-24 08:32:26 08:43:55 08:59:12 8
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:41:51 09:43:01 09:02:15 54
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 08:39:36 08:37:35 08:54:31 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:41:13 08:36:29 08:57:59 16
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 08:54:03 08:51:10 09:02:26 1
IM Florida 2008-11-01 09:43:19 10:03:47 09:05:00 38
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 08:59:40 08:57:03 08:50:51 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:35:53 08:35:33 08:49:11 12
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 09:05:09 09:02:57 08:53:09 4
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:01:47 08:57:48 08:49:42 39
IM Austria 2006-07-16 08:22:48 08:33:31 08:46:17 5
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:53:16 08:52:44 08:54:30 30
IM Switzerland 2005-07-15 08:51:58 08:56:24 08:56:24 6

Results for Petr Vabrousek (CZE)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 09:15:21 09:10:22 08:58:03 6
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:35:08 08:43:32 08:57:29 6
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:13:42 09:15:52 08:58:08 30
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:37:59 08:43:29 08:57:19 9
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:11:11 09:11:21 08:57:54 9
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:40:36 08:52:11 08:57:18 8
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 08:58:30 08:59:42 08:57:32 6
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15 09:27:44 09:29:33 08:57:26 5
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 08:39:52 08:50:03 08:55:56 8
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:29:59 08:46:03 08:56:13 7
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:56:26 08:57:30 08:56:42 41
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:39:16 08:46:52 08:56:40 4
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 08:46:33 08:50:57 08:57:10 2
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 08:36:15 08:52:31 08:57:29 6
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:09:43 09:04:20 08:57:45 6
Challenge Wanaka 2010-01-16 09:00:08 09:00:39 08:57:24 4
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 08:57:08 09:12:54 08:57:14 10
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:37:45 08:47:03 08:56:23 10
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:23:03 09:17:56 08:56:55 48
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 09:08:26 09:06:31 08:55:43 7
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 09:10:24 09:09:46 08:55:04 6
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:15:03 08:34:58 08:54:11 10
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 08:37:18 08:50:06 08:55:24 3
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 08:36:07 08:47:12 08:55:45 3
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 08:44:38 08:50:16 08:56:19 2
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:28:09 08:34:47 08:56:43 8
IM Florida 2008-11-01 08:23:00 08:40:39 08:58:14 3
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:04:42 09:02:27 08:59:30 31
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 08:55:20 08:54:10 08:59:16 2
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 08:53:05 09:05:30 08:59:40 6
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 08:53:58 09:03:18 08:59:11 4
IM Australia 2008-04-06 09:11:11 09:14:01 08:58:50 11
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 09:09:36 09:13:00 08:57:26 6
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 08:27:15 08:43:22 08:55:58 10
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:53:05 09:08:51 08:57:13 21
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:42:26 09:42:03 08:55:58 56
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 10:58:00 10:59:48 08:50:29 22
IM Germany 2007-07-01 08:22:31 08:36:25 08:50:29 5
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 08:40:42 08:51:41 08:52:13 6
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 08:41:59 08:44:53 08:52:18 4
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 08:48:19 08:47:23 08:53:25 4
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:10:45 09:06:42 08:54:28 47
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 09:03:12 08:55:50 08:52:14 7
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 08:44:54 08:45:52 08:51:29 8
IM South Africa 2006-03-18 08:38:52 08:40:31 08:52:48 3
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 08:36:05 08:38:20 08:56:27 5
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:12:17 09:11:44 09:33:57 50
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 11:19:03 11:00:54 09:42:05 23
IM Brasil 2005-05-28 09:06:45 09:06:45 08:58:25 6
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 08:49:46 08:49:46 08:49:46 4

Results for Dan Brown (PHI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Korea 2006-08-27 08:55:28 08:58:05 08:58:05 8

Results for Alejandro Santamaria (ESP)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 08:32:50 08:45:40 09:00:56 3
IM France 2011-06-26 09:07:39 09:11:39 09:05:41 8
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:04:38 09:04:48 09:03:25 7
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 08:57:04 09:02:40 09:02:37 3
IM Korea 2007-08-26 09:50:52 09:35:08 09:02:35 6
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 08:41:50 08:49:02 08:47:02 6
IM UK 2006-08-16 08:54:42 08:56:49 08:45:47 4
IM Austria 2005-07-03 08:30:33 08:30:33 08:30:33 6

Results for Gudmund Snilstveit (NOR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:38:39 08:51:37 09:02:12 18
IM Wales 2011-09-11 09:22:58 09:13:44 09:08:28 6
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:45:13 09:01:46 09:01:46 13

Results for Lothar Leder (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Regensburg 2011-08-07 08:45:30 08:57:21 09:03:11 5
Challenge Roth 2011-07-10 08:22:00 08:44:49 09:04:23 7
IM Germany 2010-07-04 09:01:21 09:13:59 09:09:21 14
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 09:00:19 09:05:57 09:08:16 4
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:10:51 09:15:05 09:08:50 13
IM UK 2009-08-02 09:23:39 09:20:26 09:06:59 8
IM Germany 2007-07-01 08:43:55 08:58:24 09:01:33 10
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 09:04:09 09:07:10 09:02:26 11
IM Germany 2006-07-23 09:01:53 09:12:16 09:00:42 11
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 09:00:11 09:02:32 08:55:49 11
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:14:39 09:14:06 08:52:11 51
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 08:17:41 08:28:14 08:28:14 4

Results for Joel Jameson (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2011-11-05 08:35:31 08:56:44 09:04:43 11
IM Lanzarote 2011-05-21 09:01:48 08:57:00 09:12:23 4
IM UK 2005-08-21 10:48:13 10:32:42 10:32:42 12

Results for Sergio Marques (PRT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:18:26 09:20:37 09:06:09 33
IM Germany 2011-07-24 08:57:53 09:09:56 09:04:35 16
IM Switzerland 2011-07-10 08:48:01 09:01:58 09:03:58 6
IM France 2011-06-26 08:49:55 08:53:47 09:04:13 5
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:48:57 08:54:34 09:05:43 12
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:09:30 09:21:43 09:07:31 15
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 09:05:04 09:07:58 09:04:53 5
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:11:10 09:05:46 09:04:19 7
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:41:02 09:35:45 09:04:02 60
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:08:38 09:05:40 08:57:29 8
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:47:16 09:44:50 08:55:38 57
IM Louisville 2008-08-27 08:59:16 08:56:02 08:44:05 3
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:23:49 08:38:43 08:40:36 2
IM Austria 2007-07-08 08:36:05 08:46:42 08:41:10 7
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:40:32 08:36:43 08:39:04 19
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 08:31:26 08:32:23 08:40:07 5
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:43:45 08:43:14 08:44:53 20
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 08:46:47 08:46:47 08:46:47 3

Results for Joshua Rix (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:30:59 08:39:19 09:08:54 4
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 08:57:32 09:09:44 09:22:02 10
IM Australia 2010-03-28 09:58:11 10:07:11 09:28:11 11
IM Australia 2009-04-05 09:10:25 09:13:12 09:01:08 14
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 08:33:22 08:47:53 08:47:53 10

Results for Paul Wisniewski (POL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 16:09:36 16:19:42 09:15:18 20
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 08:43:07 08:57:55 09:15:18 11
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 09:20:48 09:38:37 09:38:37 24

Results for Justin Granger (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Korea 2011-07-03 09:30:44 09:37:55 09:17:19 5
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 09:16:33 09:19:45 09:13:43 12
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:55:02 09:16:34 09:13:01 27
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 09:19:16 09:25:17 09:12:35 7
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 09:03:05 09:18:27 09:11:03 15
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 09:06:59 09:07:11 09:10:04 9
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:43:39 09:04:35 09:10:29 13
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 08:54:08 08:57:27 09:11:24 3
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:38:23 08:53:43 09:13:36 8
IM Korea 2007-08-26 10:01:01 09:45:01 09:17:04 8
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 09:51:07 10:15:01 09:11:32 25
Challenge Wanaka 2007-01-20 08:55:35 08:57:47 08:56:47 2
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 08:50:20 08:57:39 08:56:32 9
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 08:47:16 08:59:50 08:56:10 18
IM Australia 2006-05-11 08:55:12 08:53:07 08:54:39 7
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 08:28:19 08:39:06 08:55:40 10
IM Australia 2005-04-08 09:13:16 09:13:16 09:13:16 15

Results for Shinya Suganuma (JPN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 09:19:15 09:28:22 09:23:40 14
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:16:00 09:17:07 09:17:07 48

Results for Romain Guillaume (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 10:44:25 10:46:23 09:25:28 15
IM UK 2011-07-31 08:41:25 08:52:03 09:10:04 2
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:52:16 09:09:02 09:14:08 18
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 08:49:42 08:51:47 09:15:16 2
IM France 2010-06-27 08:58:56 09:12:21 09:21:41 5
IM Florida 2009-11-07 08:47:52 09:04:00 09:24:55 10
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 08:53:07 09:05:55 09:33:23 11
IM France 2008-06-22 09:19:24 09:26:22 09:49:26 10
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 09:37:17 09:51:08 10:06:57 17
IM Switzerland 2006-07-02 10:13:40 10:27:54 10:27:54 20

Results for Hiroyuki Nishiuchi (JPN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:26:42 09:28:55 09:26:46 34
IM Canada 2011-08-28 10:00:39 10:05:04 09:26:24 20
IM Korea 2011-07-03 09:18:12 09:25:14 09:18:25 4
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 09:25:39 09:26:55 09:16:44 9
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:11:43 09:12:49 09:13:47 47
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:23:13 09:18:06 09:14:08 49
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 08:55:00 08:58:04 09:12:44 6
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:13:56 09:21:06 09:20:16 20
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:18:41 09:18:19 09:19:44 42
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:17:17 09:16:44 09:21:05 55
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 09:26:02 09:26:02 09:26:02 21

Results for Oyvind Johannessen (Nor)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 09:48:55 09:57:43 09:57:43 19

Results for Bart Aernouts (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Jens Grønbek (DEN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Johan Borg (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Paul Matthews (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Fredrik Croneborg (SWE)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Greg Bennett (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Todd Israel (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Sylvain Sudrie (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Finnbar Crennan (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Jens Petersen-bach (DNK)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Mirinda Carfrae (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:57:57 09:00:03 09:10:17 2
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 09:31:33 09:32:49 09:15:03 2
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:58:36 08:59:41 09:03:39 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:13:59 09:08:57 09:08:57 2

Results for Michelle Vesterby (DNK)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:11:23 09:25:10 09:25:10 5

Results for Rebekah Keat (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Roth 2011-07-10 08:59:22 09:23:53 09:28:21 3
Challenge Cairns 2011-06-05 09:26:31 09:35:12 09:28:58 1
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 09:22:37 09:35:23 09:28:00 2
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 09:33:15 09:36:18 09:26:52 1
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 08:52:10 09:10:37 09:25:18 2
IM Australia 2010-03-28 09:33:10 09:41:47 09:28:07 2
Challenge Wanaka 2010-01-16 09:30:41 09:31:14 09:25:13 2
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:39:24 09:00:18 09:23:42 2
IM Australia 2009-04-05 09:21:33 09:24:23 09:30:11 2
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:56:01 09:53:33 09:32:11 17
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 09:02:34 09:24:15 09:23:00 5
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:27:19 09:26:57 09:22:10 6
IM Australia 2007-04-08 09:12:58 09:16:38 09:16:38 1

Results for Caroline Steffen (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:07:32 09:09:41 09:29:22 5
IM Germany 2011-07-24 09:12:13 09:24:35 09:32:55 1
IM Australia 2011-05-01 09:29:54 09:38:31 09:34:38 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:06:00 09:07:06 09:33:42 2
IM Germany 2010-07-04 09:06:42 09:19:28 09:40:25 2
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 09:22:00 09:30:16 09:46:48 2
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 09:44:38 09:58:40 09:53:29 9
IM Australia 2009-04-05 09:38:44 09:41:40 09:51:01 3
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 09:37:24 09:50:51 09:58:25 3
IM Switzerland 2006-07-02 09:58:08 10:12:00 10:12:00 4

Results for Leanda Cave (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:49:00 09:02:13 09:29:25 1
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:03:29 09:05:37 09:34:41 3
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:13:50 09:25:15 09:41:24 3
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:27:42 09:28:50 09:44:54 10
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:31:04 09:41:20 09:49:11 5
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:02:24 09:56:55 09:51:14 20
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 09:46:49 10:10:26 09:49:19 9
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:25:07 09:32:30 09:39:40 2
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 09:28:03 09:50:46 09:44:05 7
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:36:10 09:35:47 09:35:47 8

Results for Rachel Joyce (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:06:57 09:09:05 09:29:40 4
IM Lanzarote 2011-05-21 09:28:12 09:23:10 09:34:16 1
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:08:23 09:20:35 09:37:02 2
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:18:48 09:19:55 09:42:14 5
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:32:27 09:27:15 09:50:41 6
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 10:15:05 10:11:45 09:59:59 2
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 09:37:00 09:49:24 09:53:30 3
IM Florida 2008-11-01 09:37:50 09:58:07 09:58:07 5

Results for Joanna Lawn (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 10:02:33 10:04:55 09:36:39 19
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:32:19 09:38:23 09:32:50 9
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 09:31:53 09:33:09 09:32:04 3
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:43:08 09:44:18 09:31:55 20
IM Germany 2010-07-04 09:36:12 09:49:39 09:30:02 6
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:14:35 09:20:55 09:26:51 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:34:45 09:29:31 09:27:53 7
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 09:23:08 09:31:33 09:27:35 2
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:45:33 09:43:08 09:26:51 14
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 09:16:00 09:23:29 09:23:42 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:26:47 09:26:25 09:23:44 4
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 08:58:25 09:20:11 09:23:10 2
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 09:20:02 09:24:22 09:23:53 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:32:48 09:28:35 09:23:45 7
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 09:01:17 09:14:12 09:22:07 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:14:53 09:14:20 09:25:38 4
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 09:30:14 09:30:14 09:32:08 1
IM Australia 2005-04-08 09:34:04 09:34:04 09:34:04 4

Results for Tine Deckers (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:28:21 09:30:34 09:36:57 12
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 09:34:41 09:36:47 09:38:10 2
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:19:27 09:25:23 09:38:28 5
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:41:31 09:42:41 09:41:53 19
IM France 2010-06-27 09:21:29 09:35:28 09:41:39 1
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 09:29:58 09:38:21 09:43:49 3
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:47:00 09:41:40 09:46:32 12
IM France 2009-06-28 09:30:29 09:37:26 09:50:07 1
IM Florida 2006-11-04 10:08:47 10:17:18 10:17:18 13

Results for Gina Crawford (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 09:44:06 09:38:52 09:37:49 1
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 09:27:26 09:29:40 09:37:38 1
IM St. George 2010-05-01 10:11:51 10:05:51 09:38:47 4
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:28:26 09:34:56 09:34:44 2
Challenge Wanaka 2010-01-16 09:28:57 09:29:30 09:34:42 1
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 09:16:52 09:33:13 09:35:41 1
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 09:18:26 09:26:47 09:36:15 1
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 09:28:27 09:34:33 09:38:22 1
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:57:18 09:18:47 09:39:25 3
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 09:33:29 09:41:12 09:45:48 5
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 09:33:46 09:37:19 09:47:34 1
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 09:37:03 09:35:58 09:53:41 1
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 10:09:32 10:14:15 10:14:15 5

Results for Amanda Stevens (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:09:39 09:23:23 09:37:53 4
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:50:11 09:52:30 09:43:32 18
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:25:50 09:38:25 09:38:04 5
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 09:26:35 09:37:41 09:37:41 3

Results for Michelle Mitchell (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 09:28:07 09:37:23 09:42:16 2
Challenge Cairns 2011-06-05 09:30:41 09:39:26 09:45:12 2
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 09:50:04 09:51:23 09:51:23 7
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 15:16:08 14:51:39 14:51:39 16

Results for Carrie Lester (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 09:32:44 09:42:04 09:43:26 3
Challenge Cairns 2011-06-05 09:34:56 09:43:45 09:44:04 3
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:53:23 09:54:34 09:44:16 23
IM Australia 2010-03-28 09:23:46 09:32:15 09:32:15 1

Results for Belinda Granger (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Roth 2011-07-10 09:12:56 09:38:04 09:44:03 5
Challenge Cairns 2011-06-05 09:44:41 09:53:39 09:44:39 5
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:28:59 09:41:38 09:43:40 6
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15 10:26:17 10:28:17 09:43:54 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:18:29 10:19:43 09:38:26 30
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 09:15:25 09:34:40 09:33:08 4
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:40:48 09:45:16 09:32:55 2
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 09:12:12 09:34:25 09:31:27 5
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:56:01 09:53:33 09:31:04 17
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:17:58 09:25:11 09:28:27 1
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:58:08 09:19:39 09:28:51 4
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:37:54 09:37:31 09:30:08 9
IM Lake Placid 2007-07-22 09:40:20 09:33:28 09:29:12 1
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 09:07:56 09:30:05 09:28:38 3
IM Australia 2007-04-08 09:20:25 09:24:08 09:28:25 2
Challenge Wanaka 2007-01-20 09:38:26 09:40:48 09:29:07 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:35:48 09:31:34 09:26:58 8
IM Canada 2006-08-27 09:25:13 09:24:12 09:26:01 1
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 09:10:27 09:23:35 09:26:28 2
IM Australia 2006-05-11 09:30:29 09:28:15 09:27:21 2
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:28:16 09:27:42 09:26:58 7
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 09:14:06 09:25:51 09:26:34 1
IM Australia 2005-04-08 09:27:19 09:27:19 09:27:19 3

Results for Jessica Jacobs (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2011-11-05 08:55:10 09:17:11 09:45:41 1
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 09:41:03 09:42:49 09:50:29 1
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:07:49 09:25:04 09:51:57 1
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:44:04 09:52:37 09:56:43 6
IM Florida 2009-11-07 09:27:40 09:45:01 09:57:32 6
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:04:17 09:58:47 09:59:55 21
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 12:12:45 12:10:12 10:00:10 9
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 09:25:24 09:48:09 10:00:10 6
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:54:58 09:59:56 10:03:25 7
IM Florida 2008-11-01 09:17:51 09:37:25 10:04:41 3
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 09:50:45 09:50:58 10:16:26 3
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 10:17:01 10:20:51 10:34:21 12
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 10:56:31 10:57:02 10:57:02 17

Results for Silvia Felt (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 10:31:10 10:33:38 09:53:12 23
IM Germany 2011-07-24 09:26:21 09:39:02 09:38:18 7
IM France 2011-06-26 09:34:31 09:38:43 09:37:55 1
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:24:31 09:37:04 09:37:04 4

Results for Sara Gross (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 09:56:29 10:11:25 09:56:02 6
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:18:03 09:32:00 09:53:25 8
IM Canada 2011-08-28 09:46:56 09:51:15 09:57:46 4
IM Canada 2009-08-30 10:42:08 10:47:04 09:59:17 13
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 09:44:46 09:59:14 09:52:01 4
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:06:10 10:03:40 09:50:49 20
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:41:31 09:49:03 09:48:46 4
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 10:03:45 10:08:06 09:48:43 4
IM Florida 2007-11-03 09:24:41 09:41:23 09:44:40 7
IM Canada 2007-08-26 09:43:34 09:44:00 09:45:22 2
IM Austria 2007-07-08 09:24:06 09:35:42 09:45:42 4
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 09:33:09 09:45:14 09:48:51 5
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 09:15:33 09:23:13 09:50:26 2
IM Canada 2006-08-27 10:12:35 10:11:29 10:07:14 5
IM Canada 2005-08-29 10:03:55 10:01:34 10:01:34 6

Results for Dede Griesbauer (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2011-05-21 10:28:23 10:35:03 09:59:14 15
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:40:14 10:41:31 09:52:27 37
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 09:26:08 09:43:58 09:43:12 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:40:59 09:35:42 09:43:02 9
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 09:10:15 09:23:52 09:44:33 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:39:53 09:37:29 09:49:15 10
IM Austria 2008-07-13 09:49:16 10:08:07 09:52:00 12
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:33:34 09:33:12 09:47:31 7
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 09:18:18 09:30:05 09:51:39 2
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 10:14:22 10:09:51 09:59:11 32
IM UK 2006-08-16 09:37:41 09:39:59 09:54:44 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:54:34 09:53:58 10:04:26 17
IM Lake Placid 2005-07-24 10:20:44 10:15:36 10:15:36 8

Results for Katja Rabe (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Regensburg 2011-08-07 09:44:45 09:57:56 10:01:18 5
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:15:54 10:17:08 10:02:20 29
IM Regensburg 2010-08-01 09:32:04 09:40:27 09:57:37 2
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 09:25:43 09:48:29 10:05:03 7
IM Austria 2008-07-13 09:33:49 09:52:10 10:12:49 9
IM Florida 2007-11-03 09:58:09 10:15:51 10:24:04 17
IM Switzerland 2006-07-02 10:00:54 10:14:50 10:30:40 5
IM Florida 2005-11-05 10:47:05 10:49:46 10:49:46 15

Results for Elly Franks (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 09:37:51 09:47:16 10:09:53 4
IM Australia 2009-04-05 10:34:10 10:37:22 10:31:06 11
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 10:10:37 10:18:50 10:26:15 9
IM Australia 2007-04-08 10:31:41 10:35:52 10:35:52 15

Results for Maki Nishiuchi (JPN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 10:36:33 10:39:03 10:23:46 25
IM Canada 2011-08-28 10:44:42 10:49:26 10:20:31 7
IM Korea 2011-07-03 09:56:28 10:03:59 10:13:06 2
IM Texas 2011-05-21 10:06:29 10:12:55 10:16:04 12
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 10:16:48 10:18:10 10:17:31 9
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:31:57 10:26:12 10:17:01 34
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 10:04:03 10:07:31 10:07:31 6

Results for Fernanda Keller (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2011-08-28 11:26:40 11:31:43 10:38:05 9
IM Germany 2011-07-24 11:07:02 11:21:59 10:29:58 12
IM Austria 2011-07-03 10:39:08 11:11:43 10:21:00 12
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 09:48:03 10:10:46 10:10:38 5
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:37:44 10:31:56 10:10:37 36
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 10:00:22 10:03:49 10:06:42 5
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 09:54:11 10:08:53 10:07:19 6
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:43:16 10:40:36 10:06:55 36
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:25:03 10:24:39 09:57:59 34
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 09:29:29 09:41:30 09:51:21 4
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:50:35 09:46:15 09:54:10 17
IM Austria 2006-07-16 09:44:06 09:56:33 09:56:42 7
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 09:51:39 09:58:43 09:56:45 5
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 10:10:30 10:09:53 09:55:39 29
IM Brasil 2005-05-28 09:39:46 09:39:46 09:39:46 2

Results for Suzanne Blackborrow (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 10:31:51 10:42:09 10:42:09 10

Results for Conny Dauben (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 10:40:38 10:56:40 10:50:44 13
IM UK 2011-07-31 10:41:39 10:54:44 10:48:37 7
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 10:21:52 10:35:58 10:45:42 7
IM Australia 2010-03-28 10:46:03 10:55:46 10:52:05 6
IM France 2008-06-22 10:34:29 10:42:23 10:47:47 6
IM France 2005-06-19 11:00:38 11:00:38 11:00:38 7

Results for Marthe Eikre-telle (NOR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Kate Murphy (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Anja Beranek (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Inka Wachter (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Mareen Hufe (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Dana Wagner (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

IM New Zealand 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

As always, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

New Zealand is a medium fast course with a course rating of 5:16. Conditions in the last years were pretty consistent, but last year had some cold, wet conditions that led to a slower race (adjustment of 1:35). 2011  winners were Cameron Brown in 8:31:07 (for the tenth time – beating Torenzo Bozzone by more than 10 minutes) and Sam Warriner in 9:28:24 (in a much closer race with Mirinda Carfrae (9:31:33) and Joanna Lawn (9:31:53)).

Male Participants

All discussion about New Zealand will focus on the question if this this going to be the year that Cam Brown’s winning streak is going to come to an end. He certainly faces some strong competition, but I see quite a few question marks. Based on paper Marino Vanhoenacker is the clear favorite. But his last IM was Austria in July 2011, and  he had a DNF in Kona. Last year he also had a DNF is his season’s first IM start (in South Africa), so it remains to be seen if he’s on form. The other New Zealand contender Terenzo Bozzone had to sit out Hawaii for an Achilles tendon operation, but word is that he’s recovered well and he’s raring to go. Then there is Aaron Farlow who has just won Challenge Wanaka and will certainly look for another long distance win. It’ll also be interesting to see how IM rookie Timothy Reed is going to do. Quite a field!

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 08:14:36 08:19:28 4
2 Cameron Brown NZL 08:27:14 08:32:13 14
3 Marko Albert EST 08:30:21 08:35:22 23
4 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:33:52 08:38:55 28
5 Aaron Farlow AUS 08:37:43 08:42:49 40
6 Torsten Abel GER 08:41:14 08:46:22 61
7 Keegan Williams NZL 08:46:50 08:52:01 94
8 Simon Billeau FRA 08:48:10 08:53:22 99
9 Jamie Whyte NZL 08:49:22 08:54:35 107
10 Stefan Schmid GER 08:55:44 09:01:00 141
11 Guy Crawford AUS 09:06:30 09:11:53 210
12 Simon Cochrane NZL 09:13:02 09:18:28 266
13 Romain Guillaume FRA 09:20:39 09:26:10 327
14 James Bowstead NZL 09:31:46 09:37:24 403
15 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:40:04 09:45:46 466
16 Daiki Masuda JPN 09:59:38 10:05:32 593
17 James Cotter USA 10:01:28 10:07:23 608
18 Timothy Reed AUS n/a unrated n/a
19 Greg Close USA n/a unrated n/a
20 Shanon Stallard NZL n/a unrated n/a
21 Yu Shinozaki JPN n/a unrated n/a
22 Sean Donnelly GER n/a unrated n/a

Here’s a look at the winning odds – as noted above Marino is the clear “paper favorite”:

  • Marino Vanhoenacker: 66%
  • Cameron Brown: 20%
  • Terenzo Bozzone: 4%
  • Aaron Farlow: 4%

Female Participants

Cam Brown has been the dominating athlete on the men’s side, his female counterpart is Jo Lawn. She’s still the best ranked athlete in the field:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Joanna Lawn NZL 09:31:22 09:36:59 24
2 Gina Crawford NZL 09:32:29 09:38:07 30
3 Meredith Kessler USA 09:32:37 09:38:15 32
4 Jessica Jacobs USA 09:41:42 09:47:25 51
5 Candice Hammond NZL 09:47:15 09:53:02 67
6 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:51:43 09:57:32 77
7 Belinda Harper NZL 10:04:33 10:10:30 121
8 Rachael Paxton AUS n/a unrated n/a

However, the ratings are so close that the race is too hard to predict, as evidenced by a  look at the winning odds:

  • Gina Crawford: 23%
  • Jessica Jacobs: 23%
  • Meredith Kessler: 22%
  • Joanna Lawn: 21%
  • Belinda Harper: 5%
  • Kate Bevilaqua: 5%

I can’t remember ever seeing a four way tie for winning chances. I’m looking forward to some interesting racing!

IM New Zealand 2012 – Predictions (Details Post)

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 08:14:36 08:19:28 4
2 Cameron Brown NZL 08:27:14 08:32:13 14
3 Marko Albert EST 08:30:21 08:35:22 23
4 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:33:52 08:38:55 28
5 Aaron Farlow AUS 08:37:43 08:42:49 40
6 Torsten Abel GER 08:41:14 08:46:22 61
7 Keegan Williams NZL 08:46:50 08:52:01 94
8 Simon Billeau FRA 08:48:10 08:53:22 99
9 Jamie Whyte NZL 08:49:22 08:54:35 107
10 Stefan Schmid GER 08:55:44 09:01:00 141
11 Guy Crawford AUS 09:06:30 09:11:53 210
12 Simon Cochrane NZL 09:13:02 09:18:28 266
13 Romain Guillaume FRA 09:20:39 09:26:10 327
14 James Bowstead NZL 09:31:46 09:37:24 403
15 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:40:04 09:45:46 466
16 Daiki Masuda JPN 09:59:38 10:05:32 593
17 James Cotter USA 10:01:28 10:07:23 608
18 Timothy Reed AUS n/a unrated n/a
19 Greg Close USA n/a unrated n/a
20 Shanon Stallard NZL n/a unrated n/a
21 Yu Shinozaki JPN n/a unrated n/a
22 Sean Donnelly GER n/a unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Joanna Lawn NZL 09:31:22 09:36:59 24
2 Gina Crawford NZL 09:32:29 09:38:07 30
3 Meredith Kessler USA 09:32:37 09:38:15 32
4 Jessica Jacobs USA 09:41:42 09:47:25 51
5 Candice Hammond NZL 09:47:15 09:53:02 67
6 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:51:43 09:57:32 77
7 Belinda Harper NZL 10:04:33 10:10:30 121
8 Rachael Paxton AUS n/a unrated n/a

Results for Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Austria 2011-07-03 07:45:58 08:10:12 08:19:28 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:13:14 08:15:01 08:21:21 3
IM Austria 2010-07-04 07:52:05 08:07:29 08:22:37 1
IM Austria 2009-07-05 08:01:38 08:16:17 08:26:02 1
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 08:17:32 08:28:25 08:28:01 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:53:14 08:52:05 08:27:56 22
IM Austria 2008-07-13 08:06:11 08:22:59 08:21:44 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:23:31 08:23:42 08:21:20 5
IM Austria 2007-07-08 08:06:39 08:16:39 08:20:32 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:24:17 08:22:04 08:22:19 6
IM Austria 2006-07-16 08:04:29 08:15:32 08:22:28 1
IM Florida 2005-11-05 08:28:26 08:30:56 08:30:56 1

Results for Cameron Brown (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Germany 2011-07-24 08:31:47 08:42:36 08:32:13 7
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 08:31:07 08:32:37 08:30:41 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:34:10 08:36:01 08:30:23 17
IM Germany 2010-07-04 08:18:33 08:29:38 08:29:30 4
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 08:21:52 08:27:45 08:29:28 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:53:41 08:50:28 08:29:47 22
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 08:18:05 08:25:32 08:25:44 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:26:17 08:25:12 08:25:46 5
IM Germany 2008-07-06 08:08:29 08:27:17 08:25:54 4
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 08:24:49 08:31:16 08:25:33 1
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 08:26:33 08:29:46 08:23:54 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:25:22 08:23:08 08:22:17 8
IM Germany 2006-07-23 08:13:40 08:23:00 08:22:00 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:19:36 08:19:20 08:21:34 2
IM Germany 2005-07-11 08:28:00 08:25:12 08:22:48 2
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 08:20:15 08:20:15 08:20:15 1

Results for Marko Albert (EST)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:35:18 08:36:55 08:35:22 13
IM Austria 2011-07-03 08:08:17 08:33:40 08:33:40 3

Results for Terenzo Bozzone (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 08:41:54 08:43:25 08:38:55 2
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:38:23 08:40:15 08:37:38 20
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 08:30:00 08:35:59 08:36:44 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:34:45 08:31:39 08:37:03 11
IM Germany 2009-07-05 08:29:40 08:46:23 08:40:06 9
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 08:25:37 08:33:11 08:33:11 2

Results for Aaron Farlow (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 08:41:53 08:37:27 08:42:49 1
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:34:09 08:41:36 08:44:24 5
IM Wales 2011-09-11 09:04:25 08:57:08 08:45:31 2
IM UK 2011-07-31 08:24:34 08:33:33 08:38:40 1
IM Regensburg 2010-08-01 08:39:41 08:45:28 08:45:28 6

Results for Torsten Abel (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:16:44 08:29:10 08:46:22 4
IM Canada 2011-08-28 08:41:09 08:45:58 08:50:09 2
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:38:40 08:44:59 08:51:14 10
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:42:42 08:44:35 08:53:12 26
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:20:39 08:34:13 08:56:17 3
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 08:36:38 08:50:07 09:04:46 3
IM Canada 2007-08-26 09:02:07 09:02:51 09:12:32 12
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 09:34:05 09:35:54 09:16:52 16
IM Canada 2006-08-27 09:14:42 09:14:01 09:02:47 10
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 08:36:06 08:47:02 08:47:02 11

Results for Keegan Williams (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Roth 2011-07-10 08:16:01 08:38:02 08:52:01 3
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:37:20 08:58:23 08:55:07 6
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 08:49:34 08:51:07 08:54:13 4
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15 10:49:47 10:52:23 08:55:17 7
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 08:40:11 08:46:17 08:55:17 4
Challenge Wanaka 2010-01-16 08:41:19 08:44:16 08:58:25 3
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 09:00:46 09:14:53 09:05:32 14
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 09:05:55 09:09:21 08:58:23 5

Results for Simon Billeau (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:38:06 08:45:37 08:53:22 8
IM Germany 2011-07-24 08:43:58 08:55:02 08:55:26 11
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 08:40:37 08:52:34 08:55:34 8
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 08:53:49 09:02:06 08:56:39 8
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:14:07 09:10:46 08:54:18 40
IM France 2009-06-28 08:46:30 08:53:00 08:44:38 3
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 08:20:32 08:34:50 08:34:50 5

Results for Jamie Whyte (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 08:51:53 08:47:22 08:54:35 2
Challenge Cairns 2011-06-05 08:35:07 08:43:23 08:57:46 4
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15 09:03:53 09:06:04 09:06:18 1
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:57:48 09:06:33 09:06:33 13

Results for Stefan Schmid (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:32:59 08:45:49 09:01:00 13
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 08:57:51 08:58:41 09:06:49 2
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 08:38:59 08:50:08 09:11:28 6
IM Austria 2010-07-04 09:12:44 09:30:46 09:26:30 27
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 09:17:13 09:16:53 09:16:53 10

Results for Guy Crawford (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 09:10:50 09:18:49 09:11:53 13
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 08:50:28 09:02:39 09:02:39 9

Results for Simon Cochrane (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 09:23:15 09:18:28 09:18:28 9

Results for Romain Guillaume (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 10:44:25 10:45:25 09:26:10 15
IM UK 2011-07-31 08:41:25 08:50:42 09:12:58 2
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:52:16 09:07:40 09:17:15 18
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 08:49:42 08:51:59 09:19:01 2
IM France 2010-06-27 08:58:56 09:12:36 09:24:48 5
IM Florida 2009-11-07 08:47:52 09:03:09 09:27:53 10
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 08:53:07 09:07:02 09:34:28 11
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:15:56 09:14:44 09:43:15 48
IM France 2008-06-22 09:19:24 09:24:04 09:53:10 10
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:06:02 10:06:16 10:06:47 79
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 09:37:17 09:51:21 10:07:07 17
IM Switzerland 2006-07-02 10:13:40 10:28:00 10:28:00 20

Results for James Bowstead (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 09:39:38 09:41:20 09:37:24 10
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:02:46 09:09:08 09:34:45 5
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 10:06:43 10:14:28 10:00:51 22
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 09:39:03 09:42:43 09:42:43 14

Results for Eneko Elosegui (ESP)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:54:57 09:07:24 09:45:46 13
IM UK 2010-08-01 09:38:53 09:46:39 09:53:23 7
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 09:21:08 09:19:08 09:54:52 14
IM UK 2009-08-02 09:36:48 09:33:32 10:04:22 12
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:59:58 09:56:35 10:12:36 26
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 10:44:38 10:54:17 10:18:00 24
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 10:00:09 09:58:56 10:01:05 17
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:07:14 10:07:28 10:02:27 81
IM UK 2007-08-19 09:51:39 09:57:13 09:57:13 23

Results for Daiki Masuda (JPN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:06:50 10:05:32 10:05:32 75

Results for James Cotter (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 09:58:26 10:07:23 10:07:23 20

Results for Timothy Reed (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Greg Close (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Shanon Stallard (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Yu Shinozaki (JPN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Sean Donnelly (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Joanna Lawn (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 10:02:33 10:04:27 09:36:59 19
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:32:19 09:39:18 09:33:17 9
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 09:31:53 09:33:33 09:32:28 3
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:43:08 09:45:14 09:32:18 20
IM Germany 2010-07-04 09:36:12 09:49:00 09:30:21 6
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:14:35 09:21:05 09:27:19 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:34:45 09:31:17 09:28:24 7
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 09:23:08 09:31:34 09:27:52 2
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:45:33 09:44:18 09:27:11 14
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 09:16:00 09:23:06 09:23:52 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:26:47 09:27:00 09:24:01 4
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 08:58:25 09:20:53 09:23:23 2
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 09:20:02 09:23:35 09:23:59 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:32:48 09:30:17 09:24:06 7
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 09:01:17 09:13:38 09:22:00 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:14:53 09:14:36 09:25:44 4
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 09:30:14 09:30:14 09:32:08 1
IM Australia 2005-04-08 09:34:04 09:34:04 09:34:04 4

Results for Gina Crawford (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 09:44:06 09:39:08 09:38:07 1
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 09:27:26 09:29:52 09:37:56 1
IM St. George 2010-05-01 10:11:51 10:06:48 09:39:00 4
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:28:26 09:35:06 09:35:13 2
Challenge Wanaka 2010-01-16 09:28:57 09:32:10 09:35:14 1
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 09:16:52 09:33:29 09:35:45 1
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 09:18:26 09:26:47 09:36:12 1
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 09:28:27 09:34:48 09:37:57 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:36:53 09:35:39 09:38:38 8
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:57:18 09:19:00 09:39:23 3
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 09:33:29 09:40:49 09:45:42 5
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 09:33:46 09:37:22 09:47:35 1
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 09:37:03 09:36:42 09:53:41 1
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 10:09:32 10:13:24 10:13:24 5

Results for Meredith Kessler (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:00:14 09:13:45 09:38:15 3
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 09:50:45 09:51:40 09:42:23 2
IM Canada 2011-08-28 09:37:22 09:42:42 09:40:37 3
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:15:01 09:27:56 09:40:08 4
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:04:02 10:06:13 09:42:55 26
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:13:46 09:22:46 09:36:21 1
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 09:23:52 09:31:14 09:41:26 2
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:46:58 09:42:07 09:47:07 2
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:37:09 09:52:47 09:52:47 7

Results for Jessica Jacobs (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2011-11-05 08:55:10 09:17:03 09:47:25 1
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 09:41:03 09:41:57 09:52:17 1
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:07:49 09:23:40 09:54:08 1
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:44:04 09:53:34 10:03:18 6
IM Florida 2009-11-07 09:27:40 09:44:06 10:05:02 6
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:04:17 10:00:38 10:08:27 21
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 12:12:45 12:12:25 10:09:56 9
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 09:25:24 09:48:49 10:09:56 6
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:54:58 10:01:17 10:14:28 7
IM Florida 2008-11-01 09:17:51 09:37:50 10:18:01 3
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 09:50:45 09:51:05 10:29:35 3
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 10:17:01 10:22:34 10:44:14 12
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:22:44 10:22:58 10:55:21 36
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 10:56:31 10:56:56 11:21:14 17
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 11:51:15 11:50:53 11:50:53 59

Results for Candice Hammond (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 09:58:39 09:53:33 09:53:02 4
Challenge Cairns 2011-06-05 09:43:03 09:52:24 09:52:24 4

Results for Kate Bevilaqua (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 09:43:37 09:52:05 09:57:32 6
IM Korea 2011-07-03 09:39:44 09:47:30 09:58:17 1
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 09:40:01 09:41:43 09:59:46 4
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 09:19:44 09:32:35 10:02:21 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:19:31 10:21:45 10:06:56 34
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:53:39 09:57:55 10:04:22 4
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 10:19:45 10:17:32 10:05:38 5
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 10:18:12 10:25:27 10:02:56 7
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 09:45:53 10:03:22 09:56:50 5
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 09:20:06 09:27:15 09:54:39 2
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:00:56 10:01:09 10:01:36 25
IM Australia 2007-04-08 09:37:00 09:39:45 10:01:45 4
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 09:27:05 09:33:50 10:09:14 4
IM Lanzarote 2006-05-20 10:51:14 10:46:25 10:25:03 5
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 10:07:42 10:07:23 10:11:49 31
IM Coeur d’Alene 2005-06-26 10:16:40 10:16:40 10:16:40 2

Results for Belinda Harper (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Roth 2011-07-10 09:06:47 09:31:03 10:10:30 4
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 09:40:33 09:42:15 10:32:50 5
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15 11:23:15 11:25:59 11:25:59 4

Results for Rachael Paxton (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Ironman Hawaii Predictions – an early, first crack

One thing I plan to do for this year is focus on the main long distance triathlon of the year – Ironman World Championships in Kona. But the race is not until October, so it’s still a bit away. Nonetheless, I will calculate the odds for winning the race and update them when new results come in. So let’s have a look at how I’m putting together the field and what predictions I come up with at this point.

Putting together the field

As the race is almost a year away, it is a bit tricky to figure out who will be starting – especially as the field is determined by the Kona Pro Ranking and most potential starters haven’t secured their spots yet. Still, most starters are pretty obvious, so it’s not too difficult to put together a field:

  1. TOP 10 from last year’s race
    There is a pretty high probability that these athletes want to start again in 2012. As they have quite a few KPR points from the Kona race, they just have to race another IM to be eligible for a slot.
  2. Recent champions
    Athletes that won in the last five years are guaranteed a spot as long as they validate their spot by finishing an IM. At this point, this includes Craig Alexander, Chris McCormack, Chrissie Wellington and Mirinda Carfrae.
  3. Top spots from the current KPR standings
    The more qualifying races are run, the more athletes I will take from this group. Right now, there have been 7 of 24 races, so I fill about a quarter of the remaining spots from the current KPR standings.
  4. Top spots from the current TTR ratings
    In order to fill the field to capacity (50 athletes for the men, 30 for the women), the rest is taken from my top ratings.
  5. Remove athletes that will probably not start
    There are some athletes that have stated that they will not be starting in Kona (Chrissie taking a year off, Macca focusing on the Olympics, Julie Dibens who can only race one IM per year for health reasons, Karin Thürig who ended her career) or that are not eligible to race (Michael Weiss serving a doping ban).

This way, the best athletes (i.e. those that have a reasonable chance to win the race) are included in the field.

Male Participants

Here’s a look at the winning odds for the men’s race:

Athlete Dec 2011
Craig Alexander 30%
Andreas Raelert 17%
Marino Vanhoenacker 15%
Pete Jacobs 11%
Eneko Llanos 9%
Paul Amey 7%

(There were no significant changes in January, so I just have one set of odds for the men.)

At this point, Crowie is still the overall favorite for 2012. Based on his performance in Kona 2011, Pete Jacobs might be expected a bit higher up in the odds, but he’s had a few sub-par performances in the past. Eneko Llanos and Paul Amey profit from their fast races in Arizona and are the last athletes with a significant statistical chance of winning Kona. (There are a few athletes with a 1 or 2% chance, but for me they don’t even an outside side of winning.)

Female Participants

The female side has seen a bit of movement in January with Chrissie’s announcement of a break:

Athlete Dec 2011 Jan 2012
Chrissie Wellington 67% –
Mirinda Carfrae 16% 45%
Leanda Cave 6% 18%
Caroline Steffen 2% 8%
Mary Beth Ellis 2% 6%
Catriona Morrison 2% 4%
Rachel Joyce 1% 4%

(None of the athletes on this list raced in January, so the change is a result of taking Chrissie off the start list.)

In December, anyone beating against Chrissie would have been foolish. Now that she decided not to race an IM in 2012, Rinnie has taken over the role of the favorite – in fact she’s got a higher winning chance than Crowie. The other athletes’ chances also took a boost. Leanda Cave stands a bit above the other contenders (and she will do her best to keep the Kona crown in Great Britain). A few more athletes now have a decent chance of winning that were just statistical blips in December. I expected quite some movement in the female ranking based on the 2012 season. While it will be hard for anyone to take the top spot from Rinnie, I’m sure we will see a few new names as potential Kona winners.

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