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Abu Dhabi Long Distance 2014 (March 15th) – Startlist

Abu Dhabi is one of the better known long triathlons that don’t use the “standard” Ironman distance of 3.8k/2.4mi swim, 180k/112mi bike and a marathon (42.2k or 26.2 mi). I want to post a bit more on non-IM long distance races, but I will just post the start list and my Ironman-distance based ranking and ratings. However, with the different lengths I won’t include the results in athlete’s or course’s ratings, I can’t calculate odds and I also won’t be able to predict finishing times. (So instead of „predictions“ I’ll call these posts just „start lists“.)

The Abu Dhabi Long Distance race is held over distances of 3k swim, 200k bike and 20k run – basically the swim is almost the same as an Ironman, the bike a bit longer, and the run significantly shorter. This allows for a much shorter recovery than an IM, and as it’s pretty early in the Northern Hemisphere season, it can be used as a great early race or fitness test. It also offers good prize money: 40.000 US$ for each of the winners and 125k total purse. In addition, the organizers probably help with travel costs and accommodation, and as a consequence the race usually attracts a very good field.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Frederik Van Lierde BEL  00:35:21  04:48:13  01:12:47 06:41:02
2 Eneko Llanos ESP  00:35:27  04:48:21  01:16:14 06:45:02
3 Tyler Butterfield BMU  00:36:58  04:48:16  01:17:47 06:47:49

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Melissa Hauschildt AUS  00:41:17  05:17:45  01:16:42 07:20:29
2 Caroline Steffen SUI  00:38:20  05:19:07  01:21:00 07:23:53
3 Michelle Vesterby DEN  00:38:19  05:21:06  01:22:27 07:27:52

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:21:43 00:47:42 04:36:52 02:52:01 1
2 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:24:36 00:47:46 04:35:41 02:55:42 5
3 Tyler Butterfield BMU 08:32:54 00:49:37 04:43:29 02:56:37 18
4 James Cunnama ZAF 08:34:01 00:50:03 04:42:00 02:58:07 23
5 Bas Diederen NED 08:37:49 00:47:55 04:47:59 02:55:31 35
6 Bert Jammaer BEL 08:46:26 00:49:09 04:46:10 03:05:32 60
7 Per Bittner GER 08:51:07 00:49:58 04:52:41 03:02:03 84
8 Bart Colpaert BEL 08:51:28 00:46:55 04:46:42 03:05:39 (85)
9 Henrik Hyldelund DEN 09:09:49 00:47:32 04:47:42 03:19:20 (165)
10 Edo Van der Meer NED 09:18:39 00:47:33 04:48:48 03:36:21 (194)
11 Andi Fuchs AUT 09:19:40 00:57:16 04:50:54 03:13:09 (196)
  Sylvain Sudrie FRA unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Caroline Steffen SUI 09:12:28 00:51:46 04:59:39 03:14:44 2
2 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 09:14:27 00:57:43 05:01:34 03:08:46 4
3 Jodie Swallow GBR 09:25:03 00:48:41 05:02:52 03:27:21 9
4 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:27:58 00:52:05 05:09:20 03:21:19 13
5 Svetlana Blazevic SCG 10:14:15 00:52:20 05:31:28 03:43:04 105
6 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 10:14:43 01:02:57 05:28:28 03:24:24 (109)
7 Maria Lemeseva RUS 10:26:18 01:06:57 05:33:04 03:31:49 (128)
  Alena Stevens SVK unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
  Melissa Hauschildt AUS unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

01:12:47

Ironman New Zealand 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Conditions in New Zealand were pretty typical – the adjustment of 4:56 was very close to the course rating of 4:59. If anything, the bike was a little bit slower and the run a little bit faster.

Male Race Results

Before the race, almost all prediction had a New Zealand victory. However, it was Marko Albert who took the win.

Marko_NZ

Marko was leading after the swim, and then pulled away from the big lead group, posting the fastest bike by four minutes. Marko had a six minute lead after the bike and posted the second fastest marathon to win his first Ironman. Cameron Brown posted the fastest run, managed to eat a bit into Marko’s lead and pull away from all the other contenders. The podium was rounded out by Terenzo Bozzone, who had a solid Ironman day.

Bevan Docherty had another frustrating DNF with stomach problems, it’ll be interesting to see how he and Romain Guillaume are going to adjust their Kona qualifying plans.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Marko Albert EST 00:46:10 04:36:42 02:50:05 08:17:33 -18:15
2 Cameron Brown NZL 00:48:25 04:40:39 02:47:45 08:21:55 -02:29
3 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 00:46:16 04:43:12 02:54:55 08:28:56 -01:44
4 Tim Van Berkel AUS 00:48:00 04:41:28 02:55:44 08:29:53 -05:37
5 Tom Lowe GBR 00:54:52 04:41:08 02:50:20 08:31:56 02:20
6 Daniel Halksworth GBR 00:46:17 04:43:33 03:06:29 08:41:49 -03:55
7 Guy Crawford NZL 00:47:57 04:41:34 03:09:43 08:44:03 -16:30
8 Philip Graves GBR 00:46:20 04:42:36 03:18:26 08:52:34 07:54
9 Petr Vabrousek CZE 00:54:50 04:59:13 03:01:06 09:01:20 09:26
10 Simon Cochrane NZL 00:51:50 05:04:03 03:03:42 09:05:15 -05:20
11 Johan Borg AUS 00:54:37 05:01:11 03:04:50 09:06:25 -13:10
12 Daiki Masuda JPN 00:54:38 05:01:39 03:08:58 09:10:32 -33:40
13 Shanon Stallard NZL 00:54:45 05:05:40 03:05:16 09:11:51 -27:01
14 Brodie Madgwick NZL 00:51:53 05:04:05 03:15:15 09:17:15 n/a
15 Jon Woods NZL 00:54:47 05:06:18 03:21:07 09:27:39 -20:04
16 Chris Sanson NZL 00:54:46 05:19:14 03:18:02 09:40:04 25:13
17 Harry Wiltshire GBR 00:46:16 04:43:30 04:12:12 09:46:34 18:30
18 Damien Decas FRA 00:50:04 05:10:02 03:56:04 10:03:24 n/a
19 Romain Guillaume FRA 00:46:27 04:42:29 DNF
20 Bryan Rhodes NZL 00:47:50 DNF
21 Balazs Csoke HUN 00:46:22 DNF
22 Bevan Docherty NZL 00:46:16 04:43:19 DNF

Female Race Results

Meredith Kessler was the defending champion, and she also won the 2014 title in impressive, course-record setting fashion.

Meredit_NZ

MBK almost posted a new swim record (unaided by male swimmers, the women started a minute after the men) and then had the fastest bike leg even with two minutes lost to some mechanical problems. Meredith also had the fastest marathon – interestingly in exactly the same time as second place Gina Crawford. Gina pretty much sealed her Kona spot, and if she manages to progress as she did in the few weeks after Challenge Wanaka, watch out for her in Kona! Third place went to Wanaka winner Candice Hammond.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Meredith Kessler USA 00:46:47 05:08:30 03:08:06 09:08:46 -13:55
2 Gina Crawford NZL 00:51:20 05:10:05 03:08:06 09:15:53 -05:33
3 Candice Hammond NZL 00:59:25 05:15:01 03:10:44 09:30:04 -03:22
4 Bree Wee USA 00:53:46 05:23:46 03:14:34 09:39:15 -05:18
5 Michelle Bremer NZL 00:59:12 05:21:58 03:18:27 09:45:34 06:42
6 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 00:54:10 05:23:53 03:23:27 09:47:18 -11:17
7 Larisa Marsh NZL 00:59:16 05:22:23 03:22:55 09:49:49 n/a
8 Melanie Burke NZL 01:06:43 05:25:45 03:13:29 09:51:41 -05:58
9 Mareen Hufe GER 00:59:28 05:16:51 03:32:32 09:55:30 22:44
10 Keiko Tanaka JAP 00:53:51 05:32:58 03:27:07 09:59:45 01:02
11 Erin Furness NZL 00:59:25 05:33:18 03:24:38 10:02:51 -07:58
12 Celia Kuch GER 01:03:39 05:32:38 03:36:59 10:19:40 11:41
13 Meghan Newcomer USA 00:56:32 05:43:32 03:37:16 10:22:36 02:22
14 Jodie Scott AUS 00:57:23 DNF
15 Emi Sakai JPN 01:09:18 05:45:15 DNF
16 Julia Grant NZL 00:57:26 05:50:37 DNF
17 Megumi Shigaki JPN 00:59:23 05:44:46 DNF
18 Janine Sax NZL 00:59:23 DNF
19 Anna Cleaver NZL 00:46:57 05:39:27 DNF

Photo Credit: Delly Carry (via Ironman.com)

IM New Zealand 2014 (March 1st) – Predictions

With IM New Zealand, we have the first WTC Ironman race for 2014. The race has its 30th anniversary, offering some extra prize money, and as far as I know also some extra agegroup Kona slots.

Update: Thanks to Mareen Hufe for a slightly updated start list, showing that Shiau-Yu Li is no longer starting and allowing me to update my slight error in the bib numbers.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

The 2013 race saw Bevan Docherty ending Cam Brown’s streak of winning full-distance races in New Zealand:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Bevan Docherty NZL 00:45:44 04:35:06 02:49:46 08:15:35
2 Marko Albert EST 00:45:34 04:38:34 02:56:56 08:25:30
3 Cameron Brown NZL 00:50:09 04:41:52 02:57:16 08:34:28

Docherty Run

Female Race Results

After she won the 2012 shortened race in New Zealand, Meredith Kessler also won the 2013 full-distance race:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Meredith Kessler USA 00:47:37 05:04:44 03:19:24 09:17:10
2 Gina Crawford NZL 00:51:44 05:08:17 03:14:54 09:20:54
3 Candice Hammond NZL 01:02:37 05:15:00 03:13:20 09:35:52

KesslerBikeLongHoriz

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:15:35 Bevan Docherty 2013-03-02
Swim overall 00:45:02 Kieran Doe 2008-03-01
Bike overall 04:35:06 Bevan Docherty 2013-03-02
Run overall 02:43:10 Cameron Brown 2009-03-07
Total female 09:14:35 Joanna Lawn 2010-03-06
Swim female 00:46:30 Monica Byrn 2005-05-03
Bike female 05:01:17 Emi Shiono 2008-03-01
Run female 03:01:06 Mirinda Carfrae 2011-03-05

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM New Zealand is 04:59.

Race Adjustments for IM New Zealand

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 n/a n/a n/a n/a 4 n/a n/a n/a n/a
2007 06:10 01:03 00:56 05:23 18 06:10 01:03 00:56 05:23
2008 10:28 01:34 03:15 04:32 31 08:19 01:18 02:05 04:57
2009 07:19 00:01 04:20 02:53 27 07:59 00:52 02:50 04:16
2010 06:02 01:02 03:45 03:40 17 07:30 00:55 03:04 04:07
2011 -02:06 00:29 00:36 -01:04 20 05:34 00:50 02:34 03:05
2013 02:04 00:43 03:56 01:29 17 04:59 00:49 02:48 02:49

KPR points and Prize Money

IM New Zealand has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 3 Cameron Brown NZL 08:24:17 08:28:59 00:49:23 04:41:26 02:54:03 13
2 1 Bevan Docherty NZL 08:27:48 08:32:32 00:46:48 04:41:33 02:52:49 17
3 10 Tom Lowe GBR 08:29:31 08:34:16 00:54:38 04:37:48 02:54:25 25
4 4 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:30:33 08:35:19 00:47:33 04:45:26 02:58:56 28
5 5 Tim Van Berkel AUS 08:35:21 08:40:09 00:50:29 04:44:21 02:59:45 40
6 2 Marko Albert EST 08:35:32 08:40:20 00:46:50 04:49:18 03:00:39 42
7 27 Philip Graves GBR 08:44:37 08:49:31 00:47:48 04:43:09 03:13:18 73
8 9 Daniel Halksworth GBR 08:45:36 08:50:30 00:47:34 04:48:11 03:07:23 78
9 7 Romain Guillaume FRA 08:49:44 08:54:40 00:49:01 04:43:27 03:16:49 99
10 8 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:51:52 08:56:50 00:54:48 04:52:36 03:02:59 106
11 31 Carl Read NZL 08:52:58 08:57:56 00:53:11 04:59:24 03:02:06 116
12 6 Balazs Csoke HUN 08:57:44 09:02:45 00:48:06 04:51:48 03:18:26 138
13 24 Guy Crawford NZL 09:00:18 09:05:20 00:48:45 04:46:13 03:29:40 146
14 23 Simon Cochrane NZL 09:10:25 09:15:33 00:53:35 05:05:59 03:09:53 185
15 32 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:12:07 09:17:16 00:48:22 04:59:29 03:25:05 188
16 22 Matt Burgess NZL 09:14:31 09:19:41 00:49:56 04:49:27 03:24:39 195
17 33 Chris Sanson NZL 09:14:58 09:20:08 00:54:50 05:02:26 03:10:28 196
18 21 Johan Borg AUS 09:19:21 09:24:34 00:54:15 04:54:47 03:30:57 207
19 35 Harry Wiltshire GBR 09:28:07 09:33:25 00:47:51 04:56:18 03:35:08 237
20 34 Shanon Stallard NZL 09:38:30 09:43:54 00:55:46 05:12:00 03:23:14 275
21 30 Daiki Masuda JPN 09:43:46 09:49:13 unrated unrated unrated 294
22 36 Jon Woods NZL 09:47:25 09:52:54 00:56:39 05:05:14 03:39:11 309
25 Damien Decas FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
29 Brodie Madgwick NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
26 Vincent Depuiset FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 12 Gina Crawford NZL 09:21:16 09:26:30 00:51:53 05:14:22 03:13:21 10
2 11 Meredith Kessler USA 09:22:26 09:27:41 00:50:26 05:10:23 03:20:27 12
3 16 Mareen Hufe GER 09:32:52 09:38:12 01:00:37 05:06:58 03:25:01 29
4 13 Candice Hammond NZL 09:33:17 09:38:38 01:01:01 05:14:39 03:16:33 30
5 18 Michelle Bremer NZL 09:38:48 09:44:12 00:58:07 05:15:46 03:27:49 45
6 15 Bree Wee USA 09:44:23 09:49:50 00:54:00 05:18:02 03:30:12 57
7 20 Melanie Burke NZL 09:57:29 10:03:03 01:07:46 05:20:08 03:27:17 88
8 14 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:58:21 10:03:56 00:56:51 05:24:27 03:37:07 90
9 17 Keiko Tanaka JAP 09:58:36 10:04:11 00:54:20 05:27:14 03:22:26 91
10 38 Julia Grant NZL 10:05:35 10:11:14 00:58:20 05:31:46 03:28:46 98
11 39 Celia Kuch GER 10:07:58 10:13:38 01:03:09 05:24:08 03:37:20 102
12 43 Emi Sakai JPN 10:09:50 10:15:31 01:04:54 05:19:54 03:38:34 110
13 37 Erin Furness NZL 10:10:37 10:16:19 01:01:40 05:29:28 03:28:08 112
14 44 Janine Sax NZL 10:12:07 10:17:49 01:01:22 05:26:47 03:36:29 114
15 42 Meghan Newcomer USA 10:20:08 10:25:55 00:56:24 05:39:26 03:31:41 126
16 40 Shiao-yu Li TWN 10:25:29 10:31:19 01:08:57 05:34:33 03:26:18 128
17 45 Jodie Scott AUS 10:29:05 10:34:57 00:56:10 05:36:37 03:55:32 131
18 46 Megumi Shigaki JPN 10:53:41 10:59:47 00:59:01 05:40:06 04:12:50 141
19 Anna Cleaver NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
41 Larisa Marsh NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The top three from last year are back for the 2014 race. Even though Bevan Docherty has finished only one Ironman race, his performance last year was so impressive that I have him as the race favorite. A few months I would have written off Cam Brown, but his preparation seems to be going well and I think that he’ll try to challenge for the win one more time. His chances are slightly lower than Bevan’s but his last really good Ironman race was his 2nd place in Melbourne 2012. Besides these three, there are also Tim Van Berkel (great runner who had the best 2013 run), Tom Lowe (who has raced two good Challenge races at the end of 2013), and Terenzo Bozzone (who’s on fire in 70.3s and is still looking for his break-through IM race).

Last year’s second place

  • Bevan Docherty: 27% (3-1)
  • Cameron Brown: 22% (4-1)
  • Tim Van Berkel: 18% (5-1)
  • Marko Albert: 14% (6-1)
  • Tom Lowe: 11% (8-1)
  • Terenzo Bozzone: 7% (14-1)

Female Race Participants

On the women’s side, the race is again going to be between last year’s winner Meredith Kessler (my clear favorite) and last year’s 2nd Gina Crawford. „MBK“ has taken a long IM break (at least for her: her last IM was Arizona in November) while Gina has switched coaches and is now more focused on being in top shape for Kona. Behind these two, there are Candice Hammond (recent winner of Challenge Wanaka, beating Gina) and Mareen Hufe (recently 2nd in Western Australia) who will fight for the final podium spot, but would also love to upset the two favorites:

  • Meredith Kessler: 52% (1-1)
  • Gina Crawford: 31% (2-1)
  • Candice Hammond: 9% (10-1)
  • Mareen Hufe: 5% (20-1)

Photo Credits: Eric Willis, Jay Prasuhn

Challenge Wanaka 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Even though they were not too many Pro finishers this year, conditions seemed to be pretty normal for Wanaka: A cold swim (probably the cause for a lot of the DNFs), followed by a scenic bike ride (also pretty slow) and an average run. There were hardly any changes in the course rating, now at -2:39 (making Wanaka one of the slower races on the calendar).

Male Race Results

Dylan McNeice successfully defended his title, again posting a very strong result. My pre-race favorite, Richard Ussher, was never really challenging him. Richard ran a sub-3h marathon, but was still bettered by Dylan’s 2:56. The last podium spot went to Iron-rookie Dougal Allan, who overcame his slow 1:03 swim with the fastest bike (4:45):

NewImage

 

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:46:25 04:51:26 02:56:58 08:38:48 -23:08
2 Richard Ussher NZL 00:53:16 04:53:18 02:58:57 08:49:49 12:04
3 Dougal Allan NZL 01:03:42 04:45:22 03:01:03 08:54:37 n/a
4 Carl Read NZL 00:53:17 05:06:07 03:02:49 09:06:08 00:31
5 Matt Burgess NZL 00:50:56 04:52:23 03:24:02 09:12:10 n/a
6 Jaroslav Kovacic SLO 00:51:03 05:07:55 03:19:25 09:24:45 n/a
7 Courtney Ogden AUS 00:53:35     DNF  
8 Scott Defilippis USA 01:00:20     DNF  
9 Simon Cochrane NZL 00:55:59     DNF  
10 Keegan Williams NZL 00:53:21     DNF  
11 Bryan Rhodes NZL 00:50:52 05:18:59   DNF  
12 Matty White AUS 00:53:18     DNF  
13 Ben Logan NZL 00:50:52     DNF  

Female Race Results

As for the men, my pre-race favorite (Gina Crawford) struggled a bit, finished „only“ in second place, and was beaten by an athlete having a great day. Candice Hammond took out the win, while Simone Maier and Tamsyn Hayes were the remaining female finishers.

WanakaWomen

(Female finishers in order, starting with winner Candice Hammond on the left.)

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Candice Hammond NZL 01:03:50 05:09:56 03:15:38 09:33:54 -14:14
2 Gina Crawford NZL 00:53:20 05:20:18 03:21:51 09:41:08 08:34
3 Simone Maier GER 01:05:43 05:21:40 03:15:32 09:48:50 -17:14
4 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 01:00:43 05:23:59 03:41:52 10:11:56 -08:22
5 Carrie Lester AUS 00:57:16     DNF  

Photo Credit: Challenge Wanaka

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