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Ironman Philippines 2018 – Analyzing Results

IMPHI_LogoCourse Conditions

As expected, IM Philippines was a tough course, taking a lot out of the athletes. Especially the run was extremely slow, the adjustment of -4:25 was even harder than Kona.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Nick Baldwin SEY 00:55:07 04:45:43 03:03:47 08:50:13 -09:12 US$ 5,000 2000
2 Cameron Brown NZL 00:55:48 04:53:38 03:01:49 08:56:49 31:54 US$ 2,750 1600
3 Simon Cochrane NZL 00:51:14 04:54:00 03:07:11 08:58:58 10:21 US$ 1,750 1280
4 Eneko Elosegui ESP 01:00:00 04:57:41 03:32:02 09:35:38 -01:19 US$ 1,250 960
5 August Benedicto PHI 01:08:49 05:07:37 03:27:03 09:48:46 n/a US$ 1,000 720
6 Freddy Lampret ZAF 00:55:12 04:59:33 03:50:33 09:51:21 -02:02 US$ 750 540
7 Benjamin Rana PHI 01:04:52 05:14:57 03:46:39 10:13:01 n/a   405
8 Philip Duenas PHI 01:17:24 05:46:48 03:16:37 10:27:34 n/a   305
9 Jonard Saim PHI 01:00:09 05:30:07 04:40:52 11:17:49 n/a   230
10 Arland Macasieb PHI 01:06:40 06:04:03 04:35:28 12:03:30 1:25:44   170

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Liz Blatchford AUS 00:53:01 05:03:45 03:19:17 09:22:22 05:31 US$ 5,000 2000
2 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 01:00:22 05:05:47 03:23:21 09:40:45 00:08 US$ 2,750 1600
3 Simone Maier GER 01:07:02 05:02:04 03:31:18 09:47:39 -09:17 US$ 1,750 1280
4 Julia Grant NZL 01:01:00 05:25:01 03:25:05 09:57:09 -12:47 US$ 1,250 960
5 Alise Selsmark AUS 00:56:16 05:36:16 03:34:24 10:13:48 19:03 US$ 1,000 720
6 Jana Candrova CZE 01:08:32 05:47:56 04:13:50 11:19:29 42:04 US$ 750 540
7 Erin Furness NZL 01:04:01 05:42:58 04:28:04 11:21:30 55:47   405
8 Alexandra Ganzon PHL 01:11:21 05:41:06 04:19:58 11:21:30 n/a   305

Kona Qualifying Implications

Here are where the top finishers now are with regards to Kona qualifying:

  • Safe (for a July slot): Cameron Brown (but unclear if he will take the slot)
  • Close (but more points needed – cutoff projected at 4.400 for the females and 3.500 for the males):
    Liz Blatchford (3.535), Simon Cochrane (3.105), Nick Baldwin (2.720)

Among the female athletes further back, Dimity-Lee Duke has the most points (2.660 from four races), she probably needs another 2.000 points result to be in the running for a slot.

Challenge Samorin (June 3rd) – Top Seedings

ChallengeSamorinPrevious Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2016 Evert Scheltinga (NED) 03:58:14 Helle Frederiksen (DEN) 04:18:13
2017 Lionel Sanders (CAN) 03:40:03 Lucy Charles (GBR) 04:13:59

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Lionel Sanders CAN 00:24:46 01:56:04 01:14:21 03:40:03
2 Sebastian Kienle GER 00:24:45 01:56:09 01:16:07 03:41:46
3 Michael Raelert GER 00:22:48 02:00:16 01:18:01 03:45:34

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Lucy Charles GBR 00:23:25 02:19:29 01:25:10 04:13:59
2 Annabel Luxford AUS 00:23:49 02:15:57 01:29:30 04:14:33
3 Heather Wurtele CAN 00:26:01 02:14:46 01:29:14 04:15:36

Prize Money

Challenge Samorin has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$, paying 10 deep.

Live Stream

The race will be live streamed via http://www.challenge-family.com/live/.

Top Seeded Male Race Participants

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Overall
1 1 Lionel Sanders CAN 03:44:23 03:48:53 00:26:28 01:59:54 02:29:52 01:14:31 2
2 2 Sebastian Kienle GER 03:45:03 03:49:57 00:25:46 01:59:52 02:29:09 01:15:54 3
3 5 Sam Appleton AUS 03:49:42 03:54:55 00:23:50 02:04:25 02:31:45 01:17:57 10
4 3 Michael Raelert GER 03:50:23 03:56:12 00:23:47 02:04:59 02:32:15 01:18:08 15
5 6 Sven Riederer SUI 03:52:00 03:57:28 00:23:48 02:06:26 02:33:44 01:18:16 27
6 8 Mauricio Mendez Cruz MEX 03:52:01 03:58:03 00:23:46 02:16:00 02:43:16 01:08:45 34
7 4 Andreas Dreitz GER 03:52:16 03:59:44 00:24:57 02:04:34 02:33:01 01:19:15 47
8 7 Maurice Clavel GER 03:53:05 03:58:57 00:24:00 02:07:37 02:35:07 01:17:58 42
9 10 James Cunnama ZAF 03:54:11 03:59:06 00:25:10 02:07:51 02:36:30 01:17:41 43
10 14 Pieter Heemeryck BEL 03:54:23 04:01:19 00:23:58 02:08:04 02:35:32 01:18:51 60

Top Seeded Female Race Participants

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Overall
1 104 Anne Haug GER 04:09:33 04:15:43 00:26:54 02:19:50 02:50:14 01:19:19 2
2 108 Helle Frederiksen DEN 04:16:30 04:23:34 00:25:32 02:20:41 02:49:42 01:26:48 9
3 103 Heather Wurtele CAN 04:16:42 04:21:31 00:27:34 02:19:08 02:50:13 01:26:29 5
4 102 Annabel Luxford AUS 04:17:06 04:21:59 00:25:34 02:20:28 02:49:32 01:27:34 6
5 101 Lucy Charles GBR 04:17:08 04:27:40 00:24:33 02:22:27 02:50:29 01:26:39 23
6 106 Emma Pallant GBR 04:19:09 04:27:17 00:27:54 02:24:00 02:55:25 01:23:44 20
7 105 Ellie Salthouse AUS 04:19:55 04:26:49 00:26:04 02:22:09 02:51:43 01:28:12 18
8 110 Kaisa Sali FIN 04:20:31 04:24:54 00:28:03 02:23:02 02:54:35 01:25:56 14
9 114 Radka Kahlefeldt CZE 04:21:46 04:28:23 00:25:27 02:26:15 02:55:12 01:26:34 28
10 107 Sarah Lewis GBR 04:23:04 04:30:27 00:27:32 02:24:21 02:55:23 01:27:41 34

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The men’s race looks like a repeat of last year’s race when Lionel and Sebi were neck to neck for most of the day:

  • Lionel Sanders: 55% (1-1)
  • Sebastian Kienle: 41% (1-1)

Female Race Participants

Anne Haug is the clear favorite on the female side – she has shown a number of very strong 70.3s this year. But she faces a large number of competitors including last year’s winner Lucy Charles who is likely to lead for the swim and a large portion of the bike. But when the others manage to catch Lucy towards the end of the bike, it’ll be a running race, and Anne holds most of the cards in that situation.

  • Anne Haug: 58% (1-1)
  • Lucy Charles: 11% (8-1)
  • Emma Pallant: 6% (15-1)
  • Helle Frederiksen: 6% (15-1)
  • Radka Kahlefeldt: 5% (18-1)
  • Annabel Luxford: 5% (19-1)
  • Heather Wurtele: 5% (21-1)
  • Ellie Salthouse: 3% (35-1)

Ironman Brasil 2018 – Analyzing Results

Course ConditionsNewImage

As usual, Brasil was a quick course, and the winners were under 9 hours (Kirsty Jahn) and just over 8 hours (Jesper Svensson in his first IM). But compared to what is typical for Floripa, the course and times were slow this year. The adjustment for this year was 13:43 minutes, about 12 minutes slower than last year and well under the new course rating of 21:25. Both the bike and the run were slower on average than previously and no new course records were set.

Male Race Results

Before the race the Brasilien athletes seemed to be set for a home win – but from the start Jesper Svensson dominated the race. He posted the fastest swim and bike, and a solid 2:55 marathon was more than sufficient for the win. Igor Amorelli worked hard on the marathon to eat into Jesper’s lead, but just when it seemed that he might reduce the gap, Jesper was able to increase the pace again. Igor finished second, followed by his country man Thiago Vinhal.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Jesper Svensson SWE 00:43:47 04:23:43 02:55:40 08:08:06 n/a US$ 8,000 2000
2 Igor Amorelli BRA 00:44:45 04:28:17 02:57:05 08:14:29 -05:32 US$ 4,000 1600
3 Thiago Vinhal BRA 00:46:37 04:38:00 02:50:25 08:19:11 -13:44 US$ 3,000 1280
4 Frank Silvestrin BRA 00:46:27 04:38:06 02:52:08 08:21:03 -17:38 US$ 2,500 960
5 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 00:46:35 04:29:43 03:01:13 08:22:16 -03:58 US$ 1,500 720
6 Anton Blokhin BLR 00:46:30 04:38:24 02:58:57 08:28:05 -06:18 US$ 1,000 540
7 Luis Henrique Ohde BRA 00:46:39 04:38:37 03:05:45 08:35:30 08:21   405
8 Luiz Francisco Paiva Ferreira BRA 00:43:51 04:41:23 03:10:29 08:40:40 -34:13   305
9 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 00:51:12 04:47:34 03:06:29 08:51:07 -15:39   230
10 Fabio Carvalho BRA 00:46:36 04:34:50 03:25:30 08:52:19 -02:52   170
11 Inaki De La Parra POL 00:54:26 04:53:43 03:38:42 09:32:40 27:15   120
12 Marcus Vinicius Fernandes BRA 00:43:50 04:54:46 03:55:17 09:39:08 n/a   85

Female Race Results

There were a lot more changes in the female race. Haley Chura was leading the race in the swim and for most of the bike. But Kirsty Jahn had the best bike split and was able to take the lead in the second half of the bike. An excellent 3:01 marathon allowed her to finish in sub-9 and with a solid margin. Second place went to Sarah Piampiano. As usual Sarah lost time in the swim to the rest of the field, but by T2 she had moved into fourth position, and was then able to run the race-best 2:58 marathon (her first sub-3). Bruna Mahn also had a good marathon, she was quickly able to overtake Haley Chura who ended up in fourth place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Kirsty Jahn CAN 00:53:27 04:55:14 03:01:05 08:54:57 -19:24 US$ 8,000 2000
2 Sarah Piampiano USA 00:58:04 05:01:33 02:58:21 09:03:33 -04:39 US$ 4,000 1600
3 Bruna Mahn BRA 00:52:37 05:06:21 03:07:15 09:10:37 -33:35 US$ 3,000 1280
4 Haley Chura USA 00:47:29 05:08:20 03:23:48 09:25:07 10:51 US$ 2,500 960
5 Pamela Tastets CHI 00:52:38 05:16:11 03:27:06 09:41:13 11:18 US$ 1,500 720
6 Carolina Furriela BRA 00:52:32 05:43:08 03:26:29 10:11:04 n/a US$ 1,000 540

Kona Qualifying Implications

Here are the category changes for Kona Pro Qualifying:

  • Safe for a July slot: Sarah Piampiano, Igor Amorelli
  • Bubble (around the projected cutoff): Kirsty Jahn 
  • Close (but more points needed): Haley Chura, Thiago Vinhal, Jesper Svensson

Ironman Lanzarote 2018 – Analyzing Results

Course Conditions

This year’s race in Lanzarote was especially tough – the adjustment of -31:01 is a good deal slower than the (already slow) course rating of -15:13. Compared to the last two year’s this year’s race was 8 or 9 minutes slower. This is reflected in the slow times – even Kona Top 10 athletes such as Ivan Rana or Lucy Gossage and Michelle Vesterby were barely able to break 9 hours (for the men) and 10 hours for the females. On fast courses the finish times are often a full hour faster!

Male Race Results

After the second best swim Alessandro Degasperi took control of the race early on the bike, and even with Ivan Rana not too far back he held on to his lead. Ivan finished a solid second, while a strong run allowed Cyril Viennot to claim the last spot on the podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 00:49:20 05:03:32 02:54:23 08:52:16 -05:33 US$ 5,000 2000
2 Ivan Rana ESP 00:49:24 05:07:37 02:56:37 08:58:37 02:17 US$ 2,750 1600
3 Cyril Viennot FRA 00:51:34 05:13:30 02:51:00 09:01:36 01:53 US$ 1,750 1280
4 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 00:51:43 05:14:26 02:52:30 09:04:04 -03:35 US$ 1,250 960
5 Andrej Vistica CRO 00:56:24 05:06:57 02:57:04 09:06:08 -01:38 US$ 1,000 720
6 Pedro Jose Andujar ESP 00:55:43 05:06:50 02:59:11 09:07:33 n/a US$ 750 540
7 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 00:51:39 05:26:09 02:45:35 09:08:34 01:47   405
8 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 00:54:08 05:14:23 02:55:22 09:10:28 -09:03   305
9 Samuel Huerzeler SUI 00:53:07 05:14:12 02:57:00 09:10:47 -04:58   230
10 Diego Van Looy BEL 01:02:03 05:13:13 02:48:45 09:11:05 -11:48   170
11 Patrick Jaberg SUI 00:54:00 05:17:15 03:00:53 09:17:53 -04:23   120
12 Seppe Odeyn BEL 01:04:16 05:09:55 03:00:38 09:20:49 -13:16   85
13 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 00:53:08 05:21:29 03:07:48 09:28:55 -00:50   60
14 Brian Fogarty GBR 01:03:02 04:59:38 03:24:14 09:33:32 n/a   40
15 Martijn Dekker NED 00:49:11 05:14:00 03:40:35 09:48:46 10:33   30
16 Frederic Limousin FRA 00:53:06 05:28:57 03:31:52 10:00:09 03:56   20
17 Mikolaj Luft POL 00:51:34 05:17:19 03:47:02 10:01:06 20:30   15
18 Erik Holmberg SWE 00:56:52 05:24:36 03:36:12 10:03:28 03:22   10
19 Olivier Esser BEL 00:55:54 05:30:45 03:31:08 10:04:55 13:34   8
20 Mike Schifferle SUI 01:04:00 05:40:29 03:16:12 10:11:26 24:07   5
21 Owen Cummins IRL 00:53:01 05:42:01 04:01:09 10:43:23 n/a   3
  Bekim Christensen DEN 00:59:42 05:10:27   DNF      
  Carlos Aznar Gallego ESP 00:58:40 05:26:40   DNF      
  Dirk Baelus BEL 01:01:34 05:31:06   DNF      
  Peru Alfaro ESP 00:49:07     DNF      
  Romain Guillaume FRA 00:49:14     DNF      
  Francisco Fernandez Cortes ESP 00:49:16     DNF      
  Sanne Swolfs BEL 00:53:00     DNF      

Female Race Results

Lucy Gossage is known for her strong bike leg on tough courses, and when she took the lead at 100k on the bike, she never looked back. Michelle Vesterby was just 4 minutes back in T2 but wasn’t able to challenge Lucy’s lead on the run. Nikki Bartlett posted a new marathon PR on the tough Lanzarote course and held on to her third place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Lucy Gossage GBR 00:58:43 05:29:06 03:15:39 09:49:27 -02:27 US$ 5,000 2000
2 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:54:10 05:38:07 03:19:18 09:57:11 03:56 US$ 2,750 1600
3 Nikki Bartlett GBR 01:00:04 05:36:50 03:16:43 10:01:46 -15:20 US$ 1,750 1280
4 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 00:56:02 05:58:01 03:03:45 10:04:26 -19:24 US$ 1,250 960
5 Marta Bernardi ITA 00:58:56 05:48:45 03:17:59 10:11:57 08:37 US$ 1,000 720
6 Jenny Schulz GER 01:02:00 06:01:15 03:09:32 10:20:36 -32:32 US$ 750 540
7 Katja Konschak GER 00:55:32 06:09:54 03:17:51 10:31:56 12:36   405
8 Camille Donat FRA 00:51:47 06:25:51 04:05:26 11:29:38 35:25   305
9 Annah Watkinson ZAF 01:00:26 05:58:02 05:34:03 12:39:58 2:18:14   230
  Martina Kunz SUI 01:00:19 05:44:03   DNF      
  Federica De Nicola ITA 01:00:16 06:21:46   DNF      
  Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 00:58:51     DNF      

Kona Qualifying Implications

Here are the changes for Kona qualifying after the race in Lanzarote:

  • Safe: Lucy Gossage, Michelle Vesterby (MPRO), Ivan Rana, Jens Petersen-Bach (MPRO)
  • Bubble: Alessandro Degasperi

Ironman Cairns 2018 (June 10th) – Seedings

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:15:56 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 09:26:31
2012 David Dellow (AUS) 08:15:04 Carrie Lester (AUS) 09:21:00
2013 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:17:43 Liz Blatchford (AUS) 09:19:51
2014 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:20:15 Liz Blatchford (AUS) 09:16:58
2015 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:18:01 Liz Blatchford (AUS) 09:11:49
2016 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:15:03 Jodie Cunnama (GBR) 09:06:18
2017 Josh Amberger (AUS) 08:02:17 Sarah Crowley (AUS) 08:58:14

Last Year’s TOP 3

Here’s the link to the full results and my analysis of IM Cairns 2017.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Josh Amberger AUS 00:47:15 04:17:29 02:53:26 08:02:17
2 Joe Gambles AUS 00:50:02 04:25:19 02:44:30 08:04:03
3 Braden Currie NZL 00:49:46 04:26:12 02:47:56 08:07:46

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Sarah Crowley AUS 00:57:06 04:50:00 03:06:01 08:58:14
2 Sarah Piampiano USA 01:05:38 04:52:58 03:02:49 09:08:20
3 Kristin Moeller GER 01:05:22 05:00:50 03:03:29 09:14:08

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:02:17 Josh Amberger 2017-06-11
Swim overall 00:43:48 Clayton Fettell 2011-06-05
Bike overall 04:15:13 Cameron Wurf 2017-06-11
Run overall 02:44:24 Tim Van Berkel 2013-06-01
Total female 08:58:14 Sarah Crowley 2017-06-11
Swim female 00:49:06 Jodie Cunnama 2016-06-12
Bike female 04:50:00 Sarah Crowley 2017-06-11
Run female 03:02:01 Linsey Corbin 2016-06-12

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Cairns is 05:10.

Race Adjustments for IM Cairns

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 06:26 01:41 03:54 01:36 16 06:26 01:41 03:54 01:36
2012 06:49 -00:44 08:11 -01:50 22 06:37 00:28 06:02 -00:07
2013 02:58 -01:34 08:26 -05:54 16 05:24 -00:12 06:50 -02:03
2014 04:15 -02:18 03:33 02:35 16 of 21 05:07 -00:44 06:01 -00:53
2015 06:14 01:44 04:18 00:00 16 of 19 05:20 -00:14 05:40 -00:43
2016 -02:45 -00:12 03:18 03:15 28 of 36 03:59 -00:14 05:17 -00:03
2017 12:14 -01:01 15:23 04:00 29 of 40 05:10 -00:21 06:43 00:32

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Cairns is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$, paying 10 deep.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 35% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 4 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:10:58 08:18:54 00:48:34 04:25:11 05:18:45 02:52:13 61% +27% -13% (16) 13
2 6 Tim Van Berkel AUS 08:14:05 08:20:52 00:48:20 04:31:19 05:24:39 02:49:26 84% +9% -7% (24) 16
3 5 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:14:08 08:22:07 00:47:51 04:26:35 05:19:26 02:54:42 48% +31% -21% (16) 20
4 11 David Dellow AUS 08:17:00 08:29:15 00:47:58 04:31:25 05:24:23 02:52:37 58% +1% -41% (19) 41
5 15 Mike Phillips * NZL 08:17:15 08:27:21 00:50:01 04:27:44 05:22:45 02:54:30 66% +34% -0% (3) 33
6 3 Braden Currie NZL 08:17:59 08:34:51 00:48:16 04:32:53 05:26:10 02:51:49 27% +18% -55% (5) 63
7 2 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:20:08 08:28:06 00:48:33 04:26:20 05:19:54 03:00:14 61% +11% -27% (31) 36
8 10 Cameron Wurf AUS 08:22:23 08:30:41 00:50:10 04:17:58 05:13:08 03:09:15 53% +36% -10% (10) 50
9 8 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:23:17 08:28:16 00:50:00 04:34:08 05:29:08 02:54:09 71% +10% -19% (15) 37
10 19 Michael Fox AUS 08:24:40 08:42:16 00:48:12 04:35:06 05:28:19 02:56:21 66% +9% -25% (7) 84
11 9 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:26:04 08:29:59 00:49:18 04:29:00 05:23:18 03:02:46 87% +0% -13% (34) 45
12 7 Tim Reed AUS 08:26:19 08:30:49 00:49:07 04:33:32 05:27:40 02:58:39 54% +19% -27% (7) 52
13 22 David Plese SLO 08:27:48 08:30:01 00:53:30 04:35:01 05:33:30 02:54:18 79% +7% -13% (24) 46
14 14 Callum Millward NZL 08:28:58 08:34:25 00:49:45 04:36:14 05:30:59 02:57:59 77% +0% -23% (10) 62
15 17 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:30:17 08:39:15 00:47:52 04:38:29 05:31:22 02:58:55 65% +4% -32% (14) 78
16 28 Thiago Vinhal BRA 08:32:14 08:45:36 00:49:15 04:42:28 05:36:43 02:55:31 47% +47% -6% (14) 92
17 12 Daniil Sapunov * UKR 08:33:30 08:48:22 00:48:58 04:42:32 05:36:31 02:56:59 68% +7% -25% (10) 108
18 16 Clayton Fettell AUS 08:36:53 08:42:17 00:46:14 04:32:18 05:23:31 03:13:22 60% +10% -30% (12) 85
19 27 Casey Munro AUS 08:42:16 09:25:12 00:47:30 04:35:52 05:28:22 03:13:54 11% +0% -89% (8) (225)
20 18 Balazs Csoke HUN 08:59:51 09:18:39 00:48:31 04:53:50 05:47:21 03:12:30 30% +8% -63% (29) 205
21 24 Lachlan Kerin AUS 09:08:21 09:41:56 00:53:13 04:50:29 05:48:43 03:19:38 7% +23% -70% (5) (263)
22 21 Leigh Stabryla AUS 09:08:59 09:27:39 00:50:03 05:11:47 06:06:50 03:02:09 37% +0% -63% (5) 232
23 29 Ryan Palazzi AUS 09:24:22 09:58:53 00:50:48 04:49:21 05:45:09 03:39:13 26% +0% -74% (3) (278)
24 26 Bryce McMaster NZL 10:34:26 11:11:42 00:52:52 05:49:14 06:47:06 03:47:20 33% +0% -67% (2) (300)
25 30 Aleksander Kochetkov * LTU 10:49:11 11:11:58 01:09:44 05:37:00 06:51:44 03:57:27 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (300)
1 Javier Gomez ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
20 Jason Hall NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
23 Blake Kappler AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
25 David Mainwaring AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 26% of a typical Kona field.

Sarah Crowley is already training in Switzerland and will race IM Frankfurt to validate her Kona slot.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 32 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 08:57:08 09:01:36 00:56:09 05:00:53 06:02:02 02:55:06 59% +12% -29% (15) (2)
2 31 Sarah Crowley AUS 09:05:00 09:17:13 00:55:31 04:56:03 05:56:34 03:08:26 35% +65% -0% (6) 9
3 40 Teresa Adam NZL 09:12:51 09:32:15 00:50:49 05:04:05 05:59:54 03:12:57 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (36)
4 39 Beth McKenzie USA 09:16:21 09:28:03 01:00:34 05:09:53 06:15:27 03:00:54 38% +50% -11% (13) (32)
5 37 Anja Beranek GER 09:18:33 09:23:56 00:52:35 04:56:31 05:54:06 03:24:27 68% +4% -27% (12) 23
6 33 Asa Lundstroem SWE 09:21:44 09:27:02 01:01:51 05:01:08 06:07:59 03:13:45 98% +2% -0% (18) 29
7 34 Lauren Brandon USA 09:32:02 09:36:33 00:48:19 05:03:33 05:56:52 03:35:10 46% +0% -54% (6) 41
8 36 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 09:32:22 09:39:43 01:01:29 05:11:57 06:18:26 03:13:56 76% +14% -10% (11) 50
9 38 Sue Huse CAN 09:35:00 09:55:10 unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (79)
10 35 Melanie Burke NZL 09:36:57 09:48:12 01:04:44 05:08:33 06:18:16 03:18:41 86% +8% -6% (12) 63
11 41 Jessica Mitchell AUS 09:47:21 10:11:29 01:04:06 05:13:21 06:22:26 03:24:55 68% +32% -0% (6) 107
12 42 Alise Selsmark * AUS 09:50:44 10:11:27 00:54:29 05:25:04 06:24:33 03:26:11 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (107)
43 Amanda Wilson AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Terenzo Bozzone: 41% (1-1)
  • Tim Van Berkel: 17% (5-1)
  • Timothy O’Donnell: 14% (6-1)
  • Luke McKenzie: 8% (11-1)
  • Mike Phillips: 6% (15-1)
  • Braden Currie: 4% (22-1)
  • David Dellow: 4% (23-1)

In addition to these established athletes, there is Javier Gomez who will race in his first Ironman-distance race who has also to be considered for the win. (I have tried to come up with a data-based guess for a possible Cairns finish time for him in my post “Trying to Predict Ironman Times from 70.3 Ratings“. The result was a range of times between 8:00 and 8:30.)

Female Race Participants

  • Mirinda Carfrae: 40% (1-1)
  • Sarah Crowley: 39% (2-1)
  • Beth McKenzie: 13% (6-1)
  • Asa Lundstroem: 4% (27-1)
  • Anja Beranek: 2% (43-1)
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