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Ironman Arizona 2016 (Nov 20th) – Predictions

IMAZLogoUpdate Nov 5th: Sebastian Kienle announced on Twitter that he won’t be racing Arizona: 

SebiTweet

Eneko Llanos announced on his Facebook page that he also won’t start in Arizona.

Update Nov 6th: According to the latest startlist Ben Hoffman has also withdrawn.

Update Nov 15th: Michelle Vesterby is still on the official startlist, but she has posted she’ll be racing in Cozumel a week after Arizona. 

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:25:42 Kate Major (AUS) 09:44:02
2006 Michael Lovato (USA) 08:20:56 Michellie Jones (AUS) 09:12:53
2007 Rutger Beke (BEL) 08:21:14 Heather Gollnick (USA) 09:36:40
2008 Jozsef Major (HUN) 08:34:19 Erika Csomor (HUN) 09:14:49
2008 Andreas Raelert (GER) 08:14:16 Heleen Bij De Vaate (NED) 09:21:06
2009 Jordan Rapp (USA) 08:13:35 Samantha McGlone (CAN) 09:09:19
2010 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:07:16 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:36:13
2011 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 07:59:38 Leanda Cave (GBR) 08:49:00
2012 Nils Frommhold (GER) 08:03:13 Linsey Corbin (USA) 09:01:41
2013 Victor Del Corral (ESP) 08:02:00 Julia Gajer (GER) 08:52:49
2014 Brent McMahon (CAN) 07:55:48 Meredith Kessler (USA) 08:50:41
2015 Lionel Sanders (CAN) 07:58:22 Meredith Kessler (USA) 08:44:00

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Lionel Sanders CAN 00:54:04 04:13:38 02:47:07 07:58:22
2 Brent McMahon CAN 00:47:08 04:23:32 02:46:25 08:00:57
3 TJ Tollakson USA 00:49:14 04:16:23 02:54:45 08:04:17

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Meredith Kessler USA 00:48:25 04:42:13 03:08:58 08:44:00
2 Amanda Stevens USA 00:51:07 04:50:10 03:06:39 08:52:31
3 Julia Gajer GER 00:51:05 04:52:06 03:15:06 09:03:15

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:55:48 Brent McMahon 2014-11-16
Swim overall 00:46:02 Kieran Doe 2008-11-23
Bike overall 04:03:35 Andrew Starykowicz 2015-11-15
Run overall 02:43:29 Brent McMahon 2014-11-16
Total female 08:36:13 Chrissie Wellington 2010-11-21
Swim female 00:48:13 Leanda Cave 2008-11-23
Bike female 04:42:13 Meredith Kessler 2015-11-15
Run female 02:52:56 Chrissie Wellington 2010-11-21

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Arizona is 13:13.

Race Adjustments for IM Arizona

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 08:01 -00:32 05:24 -01:03 44 08:01 -00:32 05:24 -01:03
2007 02:39 -00:31 01:11 01:17 30 05:20 -00:31 03:17 00:07
2008 07:05 00:08 04:47 -01:18 40 05:55 -00:18 03:47 -00:21
2008 10:42 01:13 09:24 01:47 66 07:07 00:05 05:11 00:11
2009 18:00 -00:56 13:35 02:16 45 09:18 -00:07 06:52 00:36
2010 14:02 -00:22 10:51 02:06 54 10:05 -00:10 07:32 00:51
2011 15:31 -00:54 16:07 02:30 67 10:51 -00:16 08:46 01:05
2012 14:37 -01:56 16:28 02:28 60 11:20 -00:29 09:43 01:15
2013 21:57 -00:19 21:55 03:57 75 of 86 12:30 -00:28 11:05 01:33
2014 10:00 -01:07 10:40 02:34 49 of 67 12:15 -00:32 11:02 01:39
2015 22:54 00:15 20:30 03:29 56 of 75 13:13 -00:27 11:54 01:49

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Arizona is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 100.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 4 Sebastian Kienle GER 07:59:03 08:10:48 00:50:48 04:13:06 02:50:09 91% +7% -2% (13) 2
2 2 Brent McMahon CAN 08:01:45 08:18:35 00:47:11 04:21:37 02:47:58 75% +0% -25% (6) 3
3 7 Ben Hoffman USA 08:08:36 08:29:38 00:48:52 04:22:10 02:52:34 35% +49% -16% (18) 25
4 6 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:13:50 08:24:29 00:48:14 04:19:55 03:00:41 90% +0% -10% (28) 13
5 1 Lionel Sanders CAN 08:15:00 08:33:02 00:55:16 04:20:59 02:53:46 81% +19% -0% (5) 34
6 3 TJ Tollakson USA 08:15:22 08:36:19 00:49:27 04:22:45 02:58:10 73% +7% -20% (22) (43)
7 8 Joe Gambles AUS 08:22:40 08:45:28 00:48:57 04:29:54 02:58:49 26% +4% -70% (9) (82)
8 9 Pedro Gomes POR 08:23:19 08:44:53 00:51:25 04:32:10 02:54:44 60% +4% -36% (24) 78
9 5 Pete Jacobs AUS 08:23:34 08:48:31 00:47:09 04:28:39 03:02:46 4% +37% -60% (27) 90
10 11 Matt Chrabot USA 08:23:35 08:40:56 00:48:38 04:30:11 02:59:46 13% +54% -33% (4) (63)
11 14 David Plese SLO 08:26:26 08:39:43 00:52:58 04:31:43 02:56:45 82% +3% -15% (19) 56
12 12 Per Bittner GER 08:29:44 08:47:16 00:50:03 04:32:51 03:01:49 51% +13% -36% (19) 88
13 17 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:35:20 09:01:16 00:53:51 04:29:37 03:06:52 39% +11% -51% (21) (134)
14 16 Matic Modic SLO 08:38:17 09:03:26 00:55:44 04:38:23 02:59:10 40% +35% -24% (9) 142
15 13 Philip Graves GBR 08:40:50 08:50:18 00:49:52 04:32:43 03:13:14 100% +0% -0% (6) 95
16 15 Swen Sundberg GER 08:41:58 08:59:02 00:53:14 04:36:21 03:07:23 54% +1% -45% (19) (126)
17 35 Chad Holderbaum USA 08:52:14 09:11:39 00:54:08 04:40:29 03:12:37 60% +6% -34% (12) 166
18 10 Leon Griffin AUS 08:52:45 09:22:10 00:51:14 04:32:37 03:23:55 19% +0% -81% (7) (198)
19 28 Jens Frommhold GER 08:55:23 09:44:33 00:58:02 04:42:26 03:09:55 31% +0% -69% (3) (252)
20 51 Jesse Vondracek USA 08:57:03 09:25:47 00:55:12 04:47:16 03:09:35 74% +18% -8% (17) 209
21 23 Jordan Bryden CAN 08:57:57 09:34:15 00:49:46 04:47:44 03:15:27 38% +52% -10% (8) 226
22 21 Raymond Botelho USA 08:58:28 09:41:16 00:54:06 04:34:40 03:24:42 25% +28% -47% (15) (243)
23 46 Adam O’Meara CAN 09:00:59 09:37:12 00:53:32 04:52:48 03:09:39 45% +26% -29% (14) (232)
24 25 Lewis Elliot USA 09:02:13 09:43:34 00:54:03 04:39:37 03:23:32 19% +5% -77% (17) (251)
25 41 James Lubinski USA 09:02:48 09:28:26 01:03:19 04:47:22 03:07:07 46% +31% -23% (18) 216
26 29 Dylan Gleeson CAN 09:03:39 09:23:55 00:55:07 04:46:57 03:16:35 70% +30% -0% (3) 201
27 42 Douglas MacLean USA 09:03:53 09:24:38 00:57:59 04:52:47 03:08:08 86% +4% -10% (14) 207
28 39 Colin Laughery USA 09:06:08 09:23:55 00:59:24 04:48:26 03:13:17 100% +0% -0% (4) 201
29 18 Dirk Baelus BEL 09:07:54 09:32:57 00:56:37 04:54:37 03:11:41 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (223)
30 49 Anthony Toth CAN 09:11:58 09:35:27 00:57:57 04:51:05 03:17:56 14% +8% -78% (18) (229)
31 20 Patrick Bless GER 09:13:20 09:30:44 00:57:23 05:02:12 03:08:45 100% +0% -0% (7) (221)
32 50 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 09:16:04 09:38:50 00:57:51 04:52:22 03:20:51 29% +0% -71% (6) (236)
33 53 Cameron Wurf AUS 09:16:14 09:41:39 00:51:17 04:15:17 04:04:41 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (245)
34 55 Nathan Champness CAN 09:16:47 09:41:50 00:57:20 04:43:51 03:30:36 38% +0% -62% (3) 246
35 31 Nicholas Granet FRA 09:17:49 09:43:18 00:51:03 04:59:58 03:21:48 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (250)
36 24 Emanuele Ciotti ITA 09:21:48 09:37:36 00:53:17 04:48:42 03:34:49 43% +17% -40% (5) 233
37 54 Dantley Young USA 09:33:22 10:18:03 01:06:16 05:04:17 03:17:49 0% +12% -88% (9) (282)
38 33 Elmar Heger GER 09:35:21 10:03:02 00:55:41 04:52:23 03:42:17 44% +23% -33% (6) (272)
39 47 Matt Shanks USA 09:36:44 09:51:24 00:59:05 05:04:07 03:28:33 100% +0% -0% (3) 261
40 52 Robbie Wade IRL 09:47:07 10:23:11 00:58:44 04:58:11 03:45:12 39% +0% -61% (2) (286)
41 19 Max Biessmann USA 10:03:20 10:30:54 00:52:41 04:50:10 04:15:29 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (289)
42 27 Andrew Fast USA 10:06:21 10:38:34 00:58:32 05:02:52 03:59:57 19% +28% -52% (4) (289)
43 38 Tyler Jordan USA 11:49:03 12:21:27 00:58:24 05:13:36 05:32:03 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (300)
22 Patrick Brady USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
26 Jose Estrangeiro POR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
30 Rafael Goncalves BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
32 Benson Hall USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
34 Tripp Hipple USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
36 Yu Hsiao USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
37 Vinicio Ibarra MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
40 Sam Long USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
43 Giulio Molinari ITA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
44 Timothy Nichols USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
45 Adam O’Connor USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
48 Josh Terwoord USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 61 Meredith Kessler USA 08:55:56 09:24:26 00:49:30 04:50:02 03:11:24 53% +12% -35% (25) 16
2 64 Angela Naeth CAN 09:04:15 09:32:29 00:58:49 04:48:27 03:11:59 25% +44% -31% (5) (29)
3 67 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 09:06:39 09:22:00 00:58:33 04:50:35 03:12:30 74% +0% -26% (27) 14
4 65 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:06:59 09:21:53 00:52:24 04:55:01 03:14:34 79% +3% -18% (19) 12
5 63 Leanda Cave GBR 09:08:36 09:30:14 00:51:23 04:57:32 03:14:41 45% +7% -48% (21) 25
6 62 Amanda Stevens USA 09:10:03 09:34:44 00:51:21 04:58:58 03:14:44 44% +15% -41% (19) 33
7 66 Kelly Williamson USA 09:14:49 09:30:50 00:53:29 05:15:54 03:00:26 77% +12% -11% (12) (27)
8 73 Haley Chura USA 09:18:24 09:43:32 00:49:14 05:04:33 03:19:38 64% +14% -22% (9) (48)
9 81 Danielle Mack USA 09:21:00 09:44:25 01:02:36 05:03:22 03:10:02 59% +10% -31% (7) 50
10 87 Darbi Roberts USA 09:22:35 09:53:49 00:53:09 05:07:30 03:16:56 54% +0% -46% (6) 67
11 82 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:23:20 09:49:32 00:58:07 05:02:22 03:17:51 69% +0% -31% (11) (57)
12 68 Uli Bromme USA 09:24:55 09:51:41 01:03:01 04:59:02 03:17:53 35% +38% -27% (14) (63)
13 72 Ruth Brennan Morrey USA 09:25:26 09:43:32 01:06:30 05:06:30 03:07:27 59% +0% -41% (3) (48)
14 69 Jen Annett CAN 09:39:53 10:07:40 01:04:10 05:08:30 03:22:13 34% +34% -32% (4) (92)
15 79 Kristin Lie NOR 09:54:25 10:17:07 01:13:50 05:06:14 03:29:21 88% +0% -12% (14) 107
16 89 Jessica Smith USA 09:56:06 10:23:31 00:54:42 05:16:08 03:40:17 62% +0% -38% (7) 117
17 83 Caroline Martineau CAN 09:57:41 10:49:26 01:02:52 05:21:04 03:28:46 33% +28% -39% (6) 143
18 88 Maggie Rusch USA 10:00:41 10:31:04 01:02:16 05:17:13 03:36:12 31% +20% -49% (5) (132)
19 86 Ashley Paulson USA 10:03:36 10:24:57 01:14:59 05:24:39 03:18:58 100% +0% -0% (2) (120)
20 77 Amy Javens USA 10:07:45 10:23:31 01:07:47 05:14:14 03:40:44 100% +0% -0% (5) 117
21 78 Marina Jurjevic AUS 10:08:18 10:28:59 01:07:42 05:13:46 03:41:51 50% +0% -50% (6) 127
22 76 Rachel Jastrebsky USA 10:11:59 10:35:18 01:02:11 05:24:32 03:40:15 61% +0% -39% (6) (137)
23 80 Nicole Luse USA 10:38:09 11:07:20 01:10:43 05:44:43 03:37:43 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (149)
70 Liz Baugher USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
71 Sarah Bay USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
74 Emily Cocks USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
75 Malindi Elmore CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
84 Carrie Mccoy USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
85 Skye Moench USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

At this point of the year, a lot of races have very deep fields with a mixture of Kona contenders that mainly want to validate their slots, athletes that didn’t have a good Kona race and look for redemption and athletes that want to have a jump start at qualifying for Kona 2017.

Male Race Participants

It’s interesting to see Sebi on the start list – validating his slot with an Arizona finish will give him some interesting options for his 2017 season, either a completely different season plan or for his summer racing. (Update: Sebi has withdrawn.) Ben will also mainly look for a validation result after his fourth place in Kona. (Update: Ben has also withdrawn. My top pick is Brent who will be looking for his next sub-8 result. He (30th in Kona) and Lionel (29th) and Eneko (27th) didn’t score too many points in Kona and want to leverage their fitness. TJ and Matt haven’t raced Kona this year and look for a good base for their 2017 season.

  • Sebastian Kienle: 56% (1-1)
  • Ben Hoffman: 13% (6-1) 39% (2-1)
  • Brent McMahon: 21% (4-1) 43% (1-1)
  • Lionel Sanders: 4% (26-1) 23% (3-1)
  • Eneko Llanos: 2% (40-1) 8% (11-1)
  • TJ Tollakson: 16% (5-1)
  • Matt Chrabot: 8% (12-1)

But there are a lot of other athletes (such as David Please, Pedro Gomes, Joe Gambles or Pete Jacobs) in the race who could be strong podium contenders.

Female Race Participants

After last year’s 8:44 Meredith is the clear favorite even after her Kona race didn’t go too well. Angela and Haley return to IM racing after a long injury break. Michelle, Yvonne and Leanda are racing again after Kona (mixed results – Michelle was 6th, Leanda 29th and Yvonne DNF). Amanda and Kelly didn’t qualify for Kona 2016.

  • Meredith Kessler: 45% (1-1)
  • Angela Naeth: 15% (6-1)
  • Michelle Vesterby: 10% (9-1)
  • Haley Chura: 8% (11-1)
  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 7% (13-1)
  • Leanda Cave: 5% (18-1)
  • Amanda Stevens: 4% (23-1)
  • Kelly Williamson: 4% (25-1)

Comments on the IMLive Kona Coverage

The last few days I spent some time re-watching the IM Live Kona Coverage .. both to “run the numbers” and also to validate my initial impressions. I loved the Kona race and the coverage, but I also think that it could be so much better – both for hard-core fans and casual observers of our sport.

It’s important to me to start by saying that in my opinion the commentators Michael Lovato, Matt Lieto and Greg Welch did a decent job. While they are the “public faces” (or voices) of the coverage and usually the first target for criticism, they have to work within constraints that they can’t easily influence themselves. Of course there is room for improvement (some suggestions below), but I’ll take “not 100% politically correct” banter between Mike and Matt over “corporate PR-speak by trained communication people” any day.

What was shown

One of the most often (and loudest!) voiced complaints is that the coverage is too much focused on the male race. When re-watching I made notes at each full minute about what was shown, beginning with the men’s start all the way to the end of the commentary after the women’s top finishers were in (almost 10 hours of coverage). Here is the breakdown between the categories:

CoverageBreakdown

This shows clearly that the men have received more attention during the race – they received an extra one and a half hours of screen time. A few other observations about this data:

  • I have not done a specific analysis of what was talked about during the race, but it’s probably fair to say that the commentators focused for the majority of time on the men’s race when there was a split screen.
  • I don’t think the Ads were too bad (even if the blocks were often five to eight minutes long), especially since there often was a split screen that showed what was going on in the race (though again, mostly focused on the men’s race). It’s the “price to pay” for receiving free coverage, and I don’t have a problem with that.

It would be interesting to see if improvements have been made in the last few years, but to me and a lot of others the difference in the coverage between the male and female races should be much smaller. Here are some other things that I noticed:

  • Showing the women’s race but talking about the men’s race seemed much more common than the other way around.
  • Towards the end of the coverage, things appeared to be a bit rushed. While all Top 10 male finishers were pictured and acknowledged crossing the finish line, the women finishing 7th to 10th were not shown (Piampiano, Lundstroem) or just “in the background” (Gossage, Lester).

Another ideas for improving the coverage of the female race would be to have a commentator focused on the women’s race (ideally a female). For the last two years they included top female Pros not racing (Linsey Corbin last year, Liz Blatchford this year), but mostly in the form of short interviews. (Sara Gross has a longer discussion about what she would like from the coverage of the women’s race.)

Need More Data!

I may be a bit biased, but this year the data coverage of the Kona race took a large step backwards. At the start of the 2015 season Ironman announced improved coverage for their big races, including a new website and GPS coverage of the races. For example, last year there was a constantly updated GPS Leaderboard that showed at any time where all the Pros in the race were and how large the time gaps between all the athletes were. This year there was only a semi-secret website with “dots on a map”, but no leaderboard with time differences – all the splits in the live blog or on the IM Live coverage were from timing mats or from the spotter network – clearly not good enough for this time and age!

As the Pros are already carrying GPS Trackers and the base data is already collected, I can’t understand why there isn’t a bigger focus on providing a GPS Leaderboard and the advantages coming with it:

  • It would make following Pros that can’t be shown in the coverage much easier.
  • It would make the job of the commentators much easier .. no need to speculate on who might be where in the race.
  • You could have a “race situation display”, like they are showing for the Tour de France coverage (leaders/size of front group – time difference to first chasers – time difference to next chasers etc.), giving viewers who took a break a chance for a quick catch-up.

The lack of a GPS Leaderboard was especially frustrating since it was available last year. Hopefully Ironman can bring it back for next year’s coverage!

Other Ideas for Improving the Coverage

Here are a few other ideas on how the coverage could be improved:

  • Talk to the Picture
    A number of times something happened in the picture that was completely ignored by the commentators. One example that stuck in my mind was a Pro athlete (I think it was Jan Van Berkel) in T2 who was being attended by medical staff – no mention while the picture was shown, no update on his status (Jan is okay and already looking for new challenges).
  • Talk about what’s not in the Picture
    Ideally there’d be more cameras so it gets easier to show more than just the leaders, in the meantime there needs to be more information about how the race is shaping up: How large is the front group, who is being dropped from the front group, what chase groups are there, who received a penalty or had a flat etc. – information that would be easily available with a GPS Leaderboard.
  • Know more than the viewers
    It must be frustrating for the commentators that they have to rely on the same information that’s available to dedicated viewers such as the picture that’s shown, the live blog and timing splits – again a GPS Leaderboard would help. It would also be great if the commentators collected more information about the athletes in the race such as their strengths and weaknesses, previous results, and “soft facts” and stories about them.
  • Improve the split screen
    This might be a small issue, but the design of the split screen results uses very little of the screen. Even though two streams are shown, only 30% of the available space is used to show the race – the rest is occupied by the background (56%), a static “2016 IRONMAN WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP” header (10%) and two race clocks.
  • Offer Recaps of what has happened so far
    As far as I can tell there was only one short recap (showing what happened in the swim). For those that are not watching the complete coverage you could show a quick recap at regular times (e.g. on the full hour) of what has happened so far and what the race situation currently is.
  • Give commentators some “Picture Control
    Often the commentators seemed surprised by changing camera views, having to come up with something interesting to say on the spot, not being able to finish their thoughts to comment on something new, or continuing their discussion even when something completely different was shown. This could be much better either if the commentators could choose between different views at the time it fits or of they have tighter integration with the person who makes these changes.

I’m not an experienced “media person”, so I’m not sure how much of this is possible, but I think that most of these suggestions do not necessarily require major changes or spending a ton of money. I’d love to see improved coverage for next year’s Kona race!

Ironman Hawaii 2016 – How the Female Race Unfolded

This post looks at the details of how this year’s Kona race unfolded for the female Pros. (A future post will do the same for the male race.)

One note before we dive into the details: As I have noted in my general Kona results post, this year’s swim was about three minutes quicker than in the past. After the race it became known that the buoy anchors marking the course had drifted over the years (making the course too long in the past) and were reset for this year (making the swim course pretty accurate). This makes it even trickier to compare times from year to year, and I will focus on the differences between athletes – with the notable exception of Daniela’s new overall course record.

Here’s the results table for the Top 10 finishers and a few other athletes that played a role during the race:

Rank  Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Daniela Ryf  SUI 00:52:50 04:52:26 02:56:51  08:46:46  -14:48 
2 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 00:56:44 05:10:54 02:58:20 09:10:30 -00:41
3 Heather Jackson  USA 00:58:56  05:00:31 03:07:48  09:11:32  -13:58 
4 Anja Beranek  GER 00:52:51 05:00:42 03:16:35  09:14:26  -11:57 
5 Kaisa Lehtonen  FIN 00:58:55  05:08:54 03:03:16  09:15:40  -08:01 
6 Michelle Vesterby  DEN 00:52:53 05:09:05 03:12:27  09:19:05  -11:02 
7 Sarah Piampiano  USA 01:02:42  05:07:29  03:07:04  09:22:31  -16:06 
8 Asa Lundstroem  SWE 01:02:04 05:09:46 03:06:42  09:22:59  -15:22 
9 Lucy Gossage GBR 01:01:57  05:06:01 03:12:15 09:25:57 02:01
10 Carrie Lester  AUS 00:56:40  05:10:50 03:15:55  09:28:17  -04:44 
14 Mary Beth Ellis  USA 00:52:49 05:07:30 03:33:42  09:38:52  13:32 
22 Jodie Swallow  GBR 00:52:47  05:09:05  03:42:56  09:49:22  29:16 
35 Meredith Kessler  USA 00:52:46  05:07:45 04:19:32  10:25:17  59:40 
Annabel Luxford AUS 00:52:48 05:06:46 DNF
Melissa Hauschildt AUS 00:58:54 05:05:21 DNF
Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 00:58:51 05:09:10 DNF

Based on the detailed splits (thanks to Russell Cox for extracting them) the “Race Development Graph” shows for various points on the course who was in the lead and who was how far back and in what position. This is the graph for the Top 10 female finishers:

FemaleTop10

Let’s have a closer look at the top finishers and how their races developed.

Daniela Ryf delivered another dominating performance, defending her 2015 title in an extremely convincing way.

Kona2016Female Dani

Even after the swim Daniela was never more than a few seconds out of the lead, and once she went to the front of the leading bike group, she quickly took control of the race and no one was able to follow her for too long. She posted the fastest bike split by eight minutes (also the only sub-5 bike split this year) and then also the fastest run split of the day – her first sub-3 marathon in Kona. Her 8:46:46 is a new course record and a dominating win by more than 20 minutes. It’s hard to believe that she entered the race with doubts about her bike strength – and probably even harder to see anyone being able to challenge her in Kona for the next years if she shows up in top shape.

Dani

The race for the top spot was pretty one-sided, but the rest of the female race was hotly contested. Even though Mirinda Carfrae was “only” 13th off the bike, she ran through the field with another sub-3 marathon and finished in second place.

Kona2016Female Rinny

The headlines after the race would have been much different if Daniela hadn’t been in the race: With one of the ten fastest all-time Kona runs Rinny made up more than 14 minutes to Anja Beranek who was second off the bike, and more than six minutes to Heather Jackson. But with Daniela in the race, Rinny was the “best of the rest” (her own words in the post-race press conference), and in her personal assessment the negatives are probably more pronounced.

Rinny

Rinny lost almost four minutes in the swim to Daniela (2014: 3:19), but then was “only” 9:35 behind at the turn in Hawi (60M) – at that point in 2014 she was almost 12 minutes behind Daniela. This means that Rinny lost six minutes in the first half of the bike – but on the second half Daniela put another 12 minutes into her, seven of those in the last 24 miles. When Rinny started the run, second place was probably the best she could race for. While this may be a disappointment for Rinny (she made it clear before the race that she was in Kona to win the race), she was on the Kona podium in every race she finished. I’m sure she’s already plotting how she can challenge Daniela the next time she races Kona – or at least how she can improve on her best Kona performance so far.

Heather Jackson was often mentioned before the race as a serious podium contender, and she was able to fulfill the expectations placed in her, becoming the first American woman since ten years to finish in the Top 3.

Kona2016Female Heather

Heather was able to improve across the board on her 2015 race. After the swim she was just over six minutes back from the front, compared to almost ten a year ago. She started the bike strong and quickly closed the gap to the group around Rinny, riding away at the climb up to Hawi. After that she was with the second chase pack that also included Jodie Swallow and Mel Hauschildt. In the last part of the bike course she gapped them as well, and by T2 she had also passed the first chase group with Meredith Kessler, Annabel Luxford, and Mary Beth Ellis. In 2015 Heather started the run in 14th place after a 5:04 bike leg, this year she was already in third after riding the second fastest bike split (at 5:00:31 more than four minutes faster than 2015). A solid run (improving on her first Kona race by 5 seconds) allowed her to claim third place at the finish line. During the run Heather overtook Anja Beranek and for a short time moved into second place, but she quickly lost one spot when Rinny passed her. Still Heather took another step forward in her Ironman racing and seemed over the moon with her podium finish.

HeatherJ

The big surprise of the day was fourth place Anja Beranek. Her first part of the season was focused on Roth and a fifth place there was a bit of a disappointment. As her two previous starts in Kona  had resulted in DNFs, there wasn’t much pressure on her. Consequently she had one of the widest smiles when crossing the finish line:

Kona2016Female Anja Witsup

Anja is a good swimmer and biker, and it could be expected that she’d be able to stay with the front group on the swim and in the early parts of the bike. But when Daniela started to apply the screws on the bike and everyone else was falling away, it was a surprise that Anja was the only one who followed Daniela. Even if Daniela did almost all the work, they both pulled away, building a lead of three minutes in Hawi. In the second half of the bike Anja had to let Dani go, but still continued to pull away from the rest of the field, starting the run six minutes in front of third place Heather Jackson. For a good finish Anja still needed a solid run, and there were some concerns that she might have biked too hard (even though she biked almost exactly the time I predicted for her). But Anja showed an excellent run: Maybe slightly faster than expected but still very much within herself. The last German female podium was almost as long ago as the last one from the US women (3rd place by Sonja Wallenhorst in 2008) and Anja was able to hold on to second place until the Energy Lab, but towards the end she was overtaken by Heather and Rinny. Still she continued to run strong, produced the best performance of her career (at least so far!) and finished in fourth place.

Anja

Before the race, veteran German Pro Timo Bracht mentioned one of his teammates as the “Kona rookie to watch” and he was right: Fifth place went to Kaisa Lehtonen. Here’s a great photo of the small Finn passing the aid station in the Energy Lab – probably too much focused on her race to notice that she is getting her water from 3-time Kona winner Peter Reid (great photo by Jay Prasuhn!):

Kona2016Female Kaisa

Kaisa came to Kona with two good Ironman races: An 8:48 debut with a second place in Barcelona and a win at the African Regional Champs. She executed another smart race in Kona: After a slow swim she didn’t panic but worked for the first two hours on the bike to ride up to Mirinda Carfrae’s group. (In the race development graph below, Rinny is shown as the red dashed line.) Apparently Kaisa continued to feel good, and with Yvonne Van Vlerken she built a small lead on Rinny. But that didn’t “stick” and Kaisa and Rinny entered T2 just four seconds apart. They ran the first part of the marathon together, moving into the Top 10. Shortly after the turnaround at the far end of Ali’i Drive, Rinny moved further ahead, but Kaisa continued to run well and by the time she was running on the Queen K, she had moved into fifth place. Even if she wasn’t quite able to close the gap to fourth place finisher Anja Beranek (it was just over a minute at the finish), her fifth place finish was never challenged from behind.

Kaisa

Kona seems to bring out the best in Michelle Vesterby:

Kona2016Female Michelle

Last year’s fourth place finisher had a good start to Kona 2016, being close to the front until about 75 miles into the bike. Then she received a 5-minute penalty for blocking and fell back to 11th place. But Michelle continued to ride strong, was in 8th place early in the run and even when others struggled, she continued to run her steady pace. Michelle held on to finish in 6th place.

Michelle

With Sarah Piampiano and Asa Lundstroem two still-improving athletes finished in seventh and eight place after being in close proximity all day:

Kona2016Female Sarah

Kona2016Female Asa Witsup

Asa had her typical swim, coming into T1 with a ten-minute deficit to the leaders. Even though Sarah swam 38 seconds slower, she’s probably happy with her swim – last year she lost more than 15 minutes. Sarah took some time to bridge up to Asa and then rode away from her. But the difference between the two was never more than two minutes, and they were both moving forward in the field, improving from 33rd/34th after the swim to 19th/21st place in T2. Asa was running slightly faster than Sarah, allowing her to close the gap and then to move ahead in the early parts of running on the Queen K. But the gap never grew to more than a minute, and they both moved into the Top 10 at the Energy Lab. The final order between Sarah (blue line in the graph below) and Asa (red line) was only decided in the last mile of the marathon when Sarah was able to turn a 13-second deficit at 25.2 miles into a 28-second advantage at the finish.Sarah_Asa

Another “close pair” for most of the race were Lucy Gossage and Carrie Lester.

Kona2016Female Lucy Witsup

Kona2016Female Cazza Witsup

Lucy had suffered a broken clavicle and had to skip some hard Kona training to actually be able to get to the start line. As Carrie is usually the better swimmer, it wasn’t a surprise to see her start the bike more than five minutes ahead of Lucy. Both had a solid bike, by T2 Lucy closed the gap to about 30 seconds and they were just over two minutes outside of the Top 10. Carrie started the marathon a bit faster than Lucy, and they entered the Energy Lab just a few seconds apart in 9th and 10th place. Carrie said she struggled all day and a bit more towards the end, that probably helped Lucy to build a small gap and to claim ninth place. What a great result for Lucy after the emotional rollercoaster of dealing with her injury, and a satisfying return to Kona for Carrie with a tenth place finish.

Lucy_Cazza

As every year, there are a lot of athletes that came to Kona with high hopes – only to finish further behind than they wanted or even being forced to DNF. Meredith Kessler was leading the field after the swim and she continued to ride strong, reaching T2 in fifth place and with high hopes for finally having a good Kona race. But then she didn’t have the run she was hoping for, finishing with a 4:19 marathon in 35th place. If last year is any indication, she’ll be racing IM Arizona in late November with some extra motivation.

Jodie Swallow was in a great position early in the bike but similar to Michelle Vesterby received a penalty she didn’t agree with. After five minutes in the penalty tent she had lost contact to the chase group and had dropped back to ninth place. She continued to ride strong but still somewhat conservative for her, and by the half-marathon mark she had moved up into fourth place. But then she was hardly able to move for the last 10k, eventually dropping back into 22nd place. Now it’s time for her to finish her emotionally demanding year by getting married to James Cunnama and taking some time off, and I’m sure she’ll play an interesting role in the Kona 2017 race.

Kona2016Female Jodie

Mary Beth Ellis had announced before the race that Kona 2016 would be her last Pro race and that she was hoping to go out with one final good result. She was in a great position for most of the day, only dropping from the Top 10 in the last part of the run. Her 3:33 marathon was still good enough for a 14th place finish.

Kona2016Female MBE

With Annabel Luxford, Melissa Hauschildt (kudos if you can spot her in one of the pictures above!) and Yvonne Van Vlerken there were three strong contenders that were in a good position early in the run. However, all of them were forced to abandon while still running in the Top 10. Hopefully they can recover, qualify again and show next year what they are capable of!

Others

(Photo Credits: A big “Thank You” to Stef Hanson from witsup.com and Jay Prasuhn for allowing me to use their great photos. Please respect their work and get in touch with them if you want to re-use the photos.)

Ironman Malaysia 2016 (Nov 12th) – Predictions

IMMalaysia Update Nov 6th: Based on the latest startlist there are a few withdrawals (most notably Tine Deckers).

Update Nov 9th: Ty Butterfield has stated on Twitter that he has ended his season and won’t be racing Malaysia.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2006 Jason Shortis (AUS) 08:36:33 Sonja Tajsich (GER) 10:08:13
2007 Xavier Le Floch (FRA) 08:43:52 Nicole Leder (GER) 09:42:33
2008 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:34:42 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:29:21
2009 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:26:48 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:21:10
2010 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:22:31 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:23:33
2014 Patrik Nilsson (SWE) 08:41:53 Diana Riesler (GER) 09:26:38
2015 Mike Aigroz (SUI) 08:52:02 Diana Riesler (GER) 09:37:06

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Mike Aigroz SUI 00:49:17 04:49:25 03:08:46 08:52:02
2 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:50:24 04:48:18 03:09:02 08:52:12
3 Harry Wiltshire GBR 00:49:13 04:49:31 03:11:55 08:55:01

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Diana Riesler GER 00:59:34 05:02:38 03:29:37 09:37:06
2 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 01:03:55 05:25:04 03:15:02 09:49:09
3 Natascha Badmann SUI 01:03:56 05:14:13 03:30:21 09:54:07

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:10:35 Bryan Rhodes 2002-01-27
Swim overall 00:46:19 Dylan McNeice 2014-09-27
Bike overall 04:21:01 Marino Vanhoenacker 2010-02-27
Run overall 02:56:27 Jason Shortis 2006-02-26
Total female 09:21:10 Belinda Granger 2009-02-28
Swim female 00:53:12 Maki Nishiuchi 2009-02-28
Bike female 04:48:08 Belinda Granger 2009-02-28
Run female 03:15:02 Gurutze Frades Larralde 2015-11-14

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Malaysia is – 07:47.

Race Adjustments for IM Malaysia

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 -15:42 -01:19 01:52 -19:12 17 of 22 -15:42 -01:19 01:52 -19:12
2007 -07:36 -01:34 02:49 -08:12 30 of 37 -11:39 -01:26 02:20 -13:42
2008 -11:09 -03:26 00:54 -13:21 21 of 22 -11:29 -02:06 01:52 -13:35
2009 12:41 -01:43 15:34 -00:25 6 -05:27 -02:00 05:17 -10:18
2010 03:53 -02:32 12:40 -07:21 6 -03:35 -02:07 06:46 -09:42
2014 -17:22 -02:03 -01:03 -10:27 21 of 27 -05:53 -02:06 05:28 -09:50
2015 -19:13 -01:38 -00:11 -10:39 42 of 55 -07:47 -02:02 04:39 -09:57

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Malaysia is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 40.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 3 Tyler Butterfield BMU 08:41:03 08:40:45 00:50:52 04:32:37 03:12:34 47% +15% -38% (13) 61
2 1 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 08:43:15 08:40:14 00:51:58 04:41:00 03:05:17 81% +4% -15% (10) 58
3 4 Alberto Casadei ITA 08:45:15 08:43:16 00:49:26 04:44:36 03:06:13 30% +34% -36% (8) 69
4 8 Ritchie Nicholls GBR 08:47:05 08:42:23 00:53:01 04:51:05 02:58:00 67% +0% -33% (5) 67
5 2 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:52:33 08:53:02 00:49:02 04:44:57 03:13:35 28% +32% -40% (17) 103
6 15 Mitch Dean AUS 08:54:27 09:00:07 00:50:19 04:43:35 03:15:33 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (130)
7 9 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 08:55:05 08:42:12 00:50:23 04:49:49 03:09:52 71% +0% -29% (12) 66
8 26 Daniil Sapunov UKR 08:55:29 08:55:20 00:50:08 04:51:18 03:09:02 60% +40% -0% (3) 110
9 6 Kaito Tohara JPN 08:56:16 09:02:35 00:54:48 04:50:40 03:05:48 48% +40% -12% (8) 139
10 32 Marcel Zamora ESP 08:56:38 08:42:55 00:54:06 04:46:07 03:11:25 99% +0% -1% (14) 68
11 27 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:58:55 08:54:44 00:55:33 04:39:36 03:18:46 63% +10% -26% (14) 107
12 28 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 08:59:08 08:53:04 00:55:22 04:45:07 03:13:39 97% +3% -0% (8) 104
13 30 Darby Thomas FIN 09:03:04 08:57:51 01:01:10 04:44:21 03:12:33 59% +6% -35% (9) 122
14 10 Balazs Csoke HUN 09:07:46 09:12:06 00:49:32 04:47:38 03:25:36 47% +6% -48% (25) 169
15 11 Nick Baldwin SEY 09:07:52 09:01:44 00:55:04 04:45:19 03:22:30 65% +0% -35% (17) 136
16 31 Thiago Vinhal BRA 09:08:00 09:04:21 00:50:53 05:01:33 03:10:34 88% +0% -12% (11) 150
17 5 Karol Dzalaj SVK 09:08:38 09:13:24 00:55:53 04:43:38 03:24:07 70% +11% -18% (13) (175)
18 7 Antony Costes FRA 09:17:05 09:36:31 00:50:47 04:39:35 03:41:43 21% +0% -79% (4) (231)
19 17 Nicolas Hemet FRA 09:20:14 09:13:54 00:56:54 04:49:47 03:28:33 46% +0% -54% (8) 177
20 18 Guillaume Jeannin FRA 09:21:02 09:24:23 00:54:53 04:51:47 03:29:22 17% +29% -54% (5) (205)
21 12 Henry Beck GER 09:25:25 09:45:10 00:51:46 04:44:36 03:44:04 37% +63% -0% (2) (253)
22 14 Andreas Borch DEN 09:25:50 09:19:10 00:50:59 04:52:17 03:37:34 81% +5% -15% (7) 192
23 24 Young Hwan Oh KOR 09:33:47 09:35:29 01:05:53 05:03:16 03:19:38 16% +50% -33% (5) 230
24 19 Darren Jenkins AUS 09:34:54 09:29:17 01:08:36 05:02:39 03:18:39 42% +0% -58% (10) 218
25 22 Urs Mueller SUI 09:37:10 09:34:41 00:58:44 04:57:42 03:35:44 65% +0% -35% (3) (227)
26 20 David Jilek CZE 09:41:40 09:39:13 01:00:21 04:58:57 03:37:22 64% +21% -15% (7) 238
27 16 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:43:03 09:39:34 01:01:29 04:54:56 03:41:38 70% +10% -20% (17) 239
28 25 Ryan Palazzi AUS 09:47:09 09:50:27 00:52:50 04:55:02 03:54:18 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (259)
29 13 Petr Bednar CZE 10:56:21 11:00:02 01:09:15 05:19:41 04:22:25 53% +0% -47% (2) (296)
30 29 Josef Svoboda CZE 11:27:46 11:52:34 01:17:53 05:43:30 04:21:23 33% +26% -41% (14) 298
31 23 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:52:06 11:59:22 01:14:16 05:48:19 04:44:30 33% +27% -40% (38) 299
21 Philipp Koutny SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (2) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 41 Diana Riesler GER 09:26:06 09:37:28 00:59:14 04:54:59 03:26:53 39% +12% -49% (19) 37
2 54 Laura Siddall GBR 09:34:57 09:37:30 00:59:28 05:01:16 03:29:14 32% +55% -12% (7) 39
3 43 Tine Deckers BEL 09:40:33 09:34:34 01:00:30 05:00:56 03:34:07 55% +6% -39% (20) 32
4 45 Mareen Hufe GER 09:44:59 09:35:18 01:03:20 05:02:57 03:33:42 84% +5% -11% (21) 34
5 50 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 10:00:43 09:55:47 01:00:14 05:26:42 03:28:47 100% +0% -0% (4) 70
6 46 Tine Holst DEN 10:01:35 09:54:28 01:06:20 05:15:10 03:35:05 77% +23% -0% (12) 68
7 44 Shiao-yu Li TWN 10:02:39 09:57:44 01:08:06 05:18:58 03:30:36 56% +30% -14% (12) 74
8 42 Keiko Tanaka JPN 10:03:21 10:10:13 00:56:09 05:24:14 03:37:58 42% +0% -58% (16) 96
9 47 Brooke Brown CAN 10:06:45 10:04:41 01:04:41 05:20:27 03:36:36 42% +0% -58% (9) 87
10 53 Lina-Kristin Schink GER 10:21:11 10:14:09 01:15:14 05:18:41 03:42:16 78% +0% -22% (6) 101
11 51 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:23:57 10:30:12 00:56:17 05:24:24 03:58:15 61% +0% -39% (13) (129)
12 48 Kate Bruck USA 10:36:48 10:34:27 01:06:11 05:40:46 03:44:51 60% +0% -40% (4) 136
13 49 Erin Green USA 10:47:41 10:51:19 01:06:06 05:44:50 03:51:46 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (144)
52 Lauren Parker AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (2) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Both the male and female fields have an interesting mix of athletes that want to use their Kona fitness after have not being able to score too many points there (Butterfield, Wiltshire, Deckers, Holst) and athletes that haven’t qualified for Kona this season and want to start the 2017 qualifying cycle with a strong result (Croneborg, Nicholls, Riesler, Siddall). It’ll be two very interesting races in a demanding climate.

Male Race Participants

  • Fredrik Croneborg: 33% (2-1)
  • Alberto Casadei: 20% (4-1)
  • Tyler Butterfield: 14% (6-1)
  • Daniil Sapunov: 12% (8-1)
  • Harry Wiltshire: 9% (10-1)
  • Ritchie Nicholls: 7% (14-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Diana Riesler: 45% (1-1)
  • Laura Siddall: 25% (3-1)
  • Tine Deckers: 13% (7-1)
  • Mareen Hufe: 12% (7-1)

Top Kona Nations – The Full Story

After this year’s Kona race a lot of posts focus on the “German Podium Sweep” – not all of them (including one of my tweets) made it sufficiently clear that this “sweep” only refers to the male side.

Kona2016FemalePodium 1

(Photo: Kona 2016 Podium, Credit Jay Prasuhn)

Here’s a fuller look at the nationality of top Kona finishers using the following parameters:

  • Pro Category only (as soon as that’s relevant as early Kona races didn’t distinguish “elite” and different age groups)
  • Overall and split for male and female athletes
  • Winners and Podium (Top 3) finishers
  • “All Results” (all Kona races since February 1978) and “modern” races since 1996 (1995 was the last year that both the male and female winner were from the US)

Winners

Here’s the breakdown of the nations of all male and female Kona winners from the first race in February 1978 to October 2016 – all in all 40 male and 39 female winners:

AllWins

The only “triathlon exotic” country in the list is Zimbabwe, that is due to Paula Newby-Frazer racing for Zimbabwe until 1992 for five titles, she won another three when racing for the USA afterwards (according to the Wikipedia article on the Ironman World Championship).

The USA is still the clear leader in overall wins. That changes however when you only look at the winners since 1996:

Wins1996

Australia has the most wins since 1996, closely followed by Switzerland, Germany and Canada.

While Australia has a relatively even split between male and female wins (6 male to 4 female wins), all Swiss wins are from the female side:

FemaleWins1996

In contrast to that all German wins are on the male side:

MaleWins1996

Podium Finishers

There is a similar development when looking at podium finishes (total 234, 120  male and 114 on the female side as early years didn’t fill all podium spots). The US still has the most overall podium finishers :

AllPodiums

The “Other” category includes Brasil 6, Finland 3, Netherlands 2, Spain 2, and France, Denmark and Chile with one each.

The US is no longer in the top spot if you look at Kona races since 1996:

Podiums1996

Since 1996 Germany has had the most podium spots, with the “German dudes” dominating the male podium spots:

MalePodiums1996

On the female side it’s a pretty close race between Australia with 14 podium finishers, Switzerland with 13, Canada with 11 and the UK with 10:

FemalePodiums1996

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