IM New Zealand 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

As always, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

New Zealand is a medium fast course with a course rating of 5:16. Conditions in the last years were pretty consistent, but last year had some cold, wet conditions that led to a slower race (adjustment of 1:35). 2011  winners were Cameron Brown in 8:31:07 (for the tenth time – beating Torenzo Bozzone by more than 10 minutes) and Sam Warriner in 9:28:24 (in a much closer race with Mirinda Carfrae (9:31:33) and Joanna Lawn (9:31:53)).

Male Participants

All discussion about New Zealand will focus on the question if this this going to be the year that Cam Brown’s winning streak is going to come to an end. He certainly faces some strong competition, but I see quite a few question marks. Based on paper Marino Vanhoenacker is the clear favorite. But his last IM was Austria in July 2011, and  he had a DNF in Kona. Last year he also had a DNF is his season’s first IM start (in South Africa), so it remains to be seen if he’s on form. The other New Zealand contender Terenzo Bozzone had to sit out Hawaii for an Achilles tendon operation, but word is that he’s recovered well and he’s raring to go. Then there is Aaron Farlow who has just won Challenge Wanaka and will certainly look for another long distance win. It’ll also be interesting to see how IM rookie Timothy Reed is going to do. Quite a field!

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 08:14:36 08:19:28 4
2 Cameron Brown NZL 08:27:14 08:32:13 14
3 Marko Albert EST 08:30:21 08:35:22 23
4 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:33:52 08:38:55 28
5 Aaron Farlow AUS 08:37:43 08:42:49 40
6 Torsten Abel GER 08:41:14 08:46:22 61
7 Keegan Williams NZL 08:46:50 08:52:01 94
8 Simon Billeau FRA 08:48:10 08:53:22 99
9 Jamie Whyte NZL 08:49:22 08:54:35 107
10 Stefan Schmid GER 08:55:44 09:01:00 141
11 Guy Crawford AUS 09:06:30 09:11:53 210
12 Simon Cochrane NZL 09:13:02 09:18:28 266
13 Romain Guillaume FRA 09:20:39 09:26:10 327
14 James Bowstead NZL 09:31:46 09:37:24 403
15 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:40:04 09:45:46 466
16 Daiki Masuda JPN 09:59:38 10:05:32 593
17 James Cotter USA 10:01:28 10:07:23 608
18 Timothy Reed AUS n/a unrated n/a
19 Greg Close USA n/a unrated n/a
20 Shanon Stallard NZL n/a unrated n/a
21 Yu Shinozaki JPN n/a unrated n/a
22 Sean Donnelly GER n/a unrated n/a

Here’s a look at the winning odds – as noted above Marino is the clear “paper favorite”:

  • Marino Vanhoenacker: 66%
  • Cameron Brown: 20%
  • Terenzo Bozzone: 4%
  • Aaron Farlow: 4%

Female Participants

Cam Brown has been the dominating athlete on the men’s side, his female counterpart is Jo Lawn. She’s still the best ranked athlete in the field:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Joanna Lawn NZL 09:31:22 09:36:59 24
2 Gina Crawford NZL 09:32:29 09:38:07 30
3 Meredith Kessler USA 09:32:37 09:38:15 32
4 Jessica Jacobs USA 09:41:42 09:47:25 51
5 Candice Hammond NZL 09:47:15 09:53:02 67
6 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:51:43 09:57:32 77
7 Belinda Harper NZL 10:04:33 10:10:30 121
8 Rachael Paxton AUS n/a unrated n/a

However, the ratings are so close that the race is too hard to predict, as evidenced by a  look at the winning odds:

  • Gina Crawford: 23%
  • Jessica Jacobs: 23%
  • Meredith Kessler: 22%
  • Joanna Lawn: 21%
  • Belinda Harper: 5%
  • Kate Bevilaqua: 5%

I can’t remember ever seeing a four way tie for winning chances. I’m looking forward to some interesting racing!

IM New Zealand 2012 – Predictions (Details Post)

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 08:14:36 08:19:28 4
2 Cameron Brown NZL 08:27:14 08:32:13 14
3 Marko Albert EST 08:30:21 08:35:22 23
4 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:33:52 08:38:55 28
5 Aaron Farlow AUS 08:37:43 08:42:49 40
6 Torsten Abel GER 08:41:14 08:46:22 61
7 Keegan Williams NZL 08:46:50 08:52:01 94
8 Simon Billeau FRA 08:48:10 08:53:22 99
9 Jamie Whyte NZL 08:49:22 08:54:35 107
10 Stefan Schmid GER 08:55:44 09:01:00 141
11 Guy Crawford AUS 09:06:30 09:11:53 210
12 Simon Cochrane NZL 09:13:02 09:18:28 266
13 Romain Guillaume FRA 09:20:39 09:26:10 327
14 James Bowstead NZL 09:31:46 09:37:24 403
15 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:40:04 09:45:46 466
16 Daiki Masuda JPN 09:59:38 10:05:32 593
17 James Cotter USA 10:01:28 10:07:23 608
18 Timothy Reed AUS n/a unrated n/a
19 Greg Close USA n/a unrated n/a
20 Shanon Stallard NZL n/a unrated n/a
21 Yu Shinozaki JPN n/a unrated n/a
22 Sean Donnelly GER n/a unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Joanna Lawn NZL 09:31:22 09:36:59 24
2 Gina Crawford NZL 09:32:29 09:38:07 30
3 Meredith Kessler USA 09:32:37 09:38:15 32
4 Jessica Jacobs USA 09:41:42 09:47:25 51
5 Candice Hammond NZL 09:47:15 09:53:02 67
6 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:51:43 09:57:32 77
7 Belinda Harper NZL 10:04:33 10:10:30 121
8 Rachael Paxton AUS n/a unrated n/a

Results for Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Austria 2011-07-03 07:45:58 08:10:12 08:19:28 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:13:14 08:15:01 08:21:21 3
IM Austria 2010-07-04 07:52:05 08:07:29 08:22:37 1
IM Austria 2009-07-05 08:01:38 08:16:17 08:26:02 1
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 08:17:32 08:28:25 08:28:01 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:53:14 08:52:05 08:27:56 22
IM Austria 2008-07-13 08:06:11 08:22:59 08:21:44 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:23:31 08:23:42 08:21:20 5
IM Austria 2007-07-08 08:06:39 08:16:39 08:20:32 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:24:17 08:22:04 08:22:19 6
IM Austria 2006-07-16 08:04:29 08:15:32 08:22:28 1
IM Florida 2005-11-05 08:28:26 08:30:56 08:30:56 1

Results for Cameron Brown (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Germany 2011-07-24 08:31:47 08:42:36 08:32:13 7
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 08:31:07 08:32:37 08:30:41 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:34:10 08:36:01 08:30:23 17
IM Germany 2010-07-04 08:18:33 08:29:38 08:29:30 4
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 08:21:52 08:27:45 08:29:28 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:53:41 08:50:28 08:29:47 22
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 08:18:05 08:25:32 08:25:44 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:26:17 08:25:12 08:25:46 5
IM Germany 2008-07-06 08:08:29 08:27:17 08:25:54 4
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 08:24:49 08:31:16 08:25:33 1
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 08:26:33 08:29:46 08:23:54 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:25:22 08:23:08 08:22:17 8
IM Germany 2006-07-23 08:13:40 08:23:00 08:22:00 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:19:36 08:19:20 08:21:34 2
IM Germany 2005-07-11 08:28:00 08:25:12 08:22:48 2
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 08:20:15 08:20:15 08:20:15 1

Results for Marko Albert (EST)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:35:18 08:36:55 08:35:22 13
IM Austria 2011-07-03 08:08:17 08:33:40 08:33:40 3

Results for Terenzo Bozzone (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 08:41:54 08:43:25 08:38:55 2
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:38:23 08:40:15 08:37:38 20
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 08:30:00 08:35:59 08:36:44 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:34:45 08:31:39 08:37:03 11
IM Germany 2009-07-05 08:29:40 08:46:23 08:40:06 9
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 08:25:37 08:33:11 08:33:11 2

Results for Aaron Farlow (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 08:41:53 08:37:27 08:42:49 1
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:34:09 08:41:36 08:44:24 5
IM Wales 2011-09-11 09:04:25 08:57:08 08:45:31 2
IM UK 2011-07-31 08:24:34 08:33:33 08:38:40 1
IM Regensburg 2010-08-01 08:39:41 08:45:28 08:45:28 6

Results for Torsten Abel (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:16:44 08:29:10 08:46:22 4
IM Canada 2011-08-28 08:41:09 08:45:58 08:50:09 2
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:38:40 08:44:59 08:51:14 10
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:42:42 08:44:35 08:53:12 26
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:20:39 08:34:13 08:56:17 3
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 08:36:38 08:50:07 09:04:46 3
IM Canada 2007-08-26 09:02:07 09:02:51 09:12:32 12
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 09:34:05 09:35:54 09:16:52 16
IM Canada 2006-08-27 09:14:42 09:14:01 09:02:47 10
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 08:36:06 08:47:02 08:47:02 11

Results for Keegan Williams (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Roth 2011-07-10 08:16:01 08:38:02 08:52:01 3
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:37:20 08:58:23 08:55:07 6
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 08:49:34 08:51:07 08:54:13 4
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15 10:49:47 10:52:23 08:55:17 7
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 08:40:11 08:46:17 08:55:17 4
Challenge Wanaka 2010-01-16 08:41:19 08:44:16 08:58:25 3
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 09:00:46 09:14:53 09:05:32 14
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 09:05:55 09:09:21 08:58:23 5

Results for Simon Billeau (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:38:06 08:45:37 08:53:22 8
IM Germany 2011-07-24 08:43:58 08:55:02 08:55:26 11
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 08:40:37 08:52:34 08:55:34 8
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 08:53:49 09:02:06 08:56:39 8
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:14:07 09:10:46 08:54:18 40
IM France 2009-06-28 08:46:30 08:53:00 08:44:38 3
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 08:20:32 08:34:50 08:34:50 5

Results for Jamie Whyte (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 08:51:53 08:47:22 08:54:35 2
Challenge Cairns 2011-06-05 08:35:07 08:43:23 08:57:46 4
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15 09:03:53 09:06:04 09:06:18 1
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:57:48 09:06:33 09:06:33 13

Results for Stefan Schmid (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:32:59 08:45:49 09:01:00 13
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 08:57:51 08:58:41 09:06:49 2
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 08:38:59 08:50:08 09:11:28 6
IM Austria 2010-07-04 09:12:44 09:30:46 09:26:30 27
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 09:17:13 09:16:53 09:16:53 10

Results for Guy Crawford (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 09:10:50 09:18:49 09:11:53 13
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 08:50:28 09:02:39 09:02:39 9

Results for Simon Cochrane (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 09:23:15 09:18:28 09:18:28 9

Results for Romain Guillaume (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 10:44:25 10:45:25 09:26:10 15
IM UK 2011-07-31 08:41:25 08:50:42 09:12:58 2
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:52:16 09:07:40 09:17:15 18
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 08:49:42 08:51:59 09:19:01 2
IM France 2010-06-27 08:58:56 09:12:36 09:24:48 5
IM Florida 2009-11-07 08:47:52 09:03:09 09:27:53 10
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 08:53:07 09:07:02 09:34:28 11
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:15:56 09:14:44 09:43:15 48
IM France 2008-06-22 09:19:24 09:24:04 09:53:10 10
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:06:02 10:06:16 10:06:47 79
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 09:37:17 09:51:21 10:07:07 17
IM Switzerland 2006-07-02 10:13:40 10:28:00 10:28:00 20

Results for James Bowstead (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 09:39:38 09:41:20 09:37:24 10
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:02:46 09:09:08 09:34:45 5
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 10:06:43 10:14:28 10:00:51 22
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 09:39:03 09:42:43 09:42:43 14

Results for Eneko Elosegui (ESP)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:54:57 09:07:24 09:45:46 13
IM UK 2010-08-01 09:38:53 09:46:39 09:53:23 7
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 09:21:08 09:19:08 09:54:52 14
IM UK 2009-08-02 09:36:48 09:33:32 10:04:22 12
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:59:58 09:56:35 10:12:36 26
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 10:44:38 10:54:17 10:18:00 24
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 10:00:09 09:58:56 10:01:05 17
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:07:14 10:07:28 10:02:27 81
IM UK 2007-08-19 09:51:39 09:57:13 09:57:13 23

Results for Daiki Masuda (JPN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:06:50 10:05:32 10:05:32 75

Results for James Cotter (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 09:58:26 10:07:23 10:07:23 20

Results for Timothy Reed (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Greg Close (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Shanon Stallard (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Yu Shinozaki (JPN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Sean Donnelly (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Joanna Lawn (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 10:02:33 10:04:27 09:36:59 19
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:32:19 09:39:18 09:33:17 9
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 09:31:53 09:33:33 09:32:28 3
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:43:08 09:45:14 09:32:18 20
IM Germany 2010-07-04 09:36:12 09:49:00 09:30:21 6
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:14:35 09:21:05 09:27:19 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:34:45 09:31:17 09:28:24 7
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 09:23:08 09:31:34 09:27:52 2
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:45:33 09:44:18 09:27:11 14
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 09:16:00 09:23:06 09:23:52 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:26:47 09:27:00 09:24:01 4
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 08:58:25 09:20:53 09:23:23 2
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 09:20:02 09:23:35 09:23:59 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:32:48 09:30:17 09:24:06 7
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 09:01:17 09:13:38 09:22:00 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:14:53 09:14:36 09:25:44 4
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 09:30:14 09:30:14 09:32:08 1
IM Australia 2005-04-08 09:34:04 09:34:04 09:34:04 4

Results for Gina Crawford (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 09:44:06 09:39:08 09:38:07 1
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 09:27:26 09:29:52 09:37:56 1
IM St. George 2010-05-01 10:11:51 10:06:48 09:39:00 4
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:28:26 09:35:06 09:35:13 2
Challenge Wanaka 2010-01-16 09:28:57 09:32:10 09:35:14 1
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 09:16:52 09:33:29 09:35:45 1
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 09:18:26 09:26:47 09:36:12 1
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 09:28:27 09:34:48 09:37:57 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:36:53 09:35:39 09:38:38 8
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:57:18 09:19:00 09:39:23 3
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 09:33:29 09:40:49 09:45:42 5
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 09:33:46 09:37:22 09:47:35 1
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 09:37:03 09:36:42 09:53:41 1
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 10:09:32 10:13:24 10:13:24 5

Results for Meredith Kessler (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:00:14 09:13:45 09:38:15 3
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 09:50:45 09:51:40 09:42:23 2
IM Canada 2011-08-28 09:37:22 09:42:42 09:40:37 3
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:15:01 09:27:56 09:40:08 4
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:04:02 10:06:13 09:42:55 26
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:13:46 09:22:46 09:36:21 1
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 09:23:52 09:31:14 09:41:26 2
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:46:58 09:42:07 09:47:07 2
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:37:09 09:52:47 09:52:47 7

Results for Jessica Jacobs (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2011-11-05 08:55:10 09:17:03 09:47:25 1
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 09:41:03 09:41:57 09:52:17 1
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:07:49 09:23:40 09:54:08 1
IM Canada 2010-08-29 09:44:04 09:53:34 10:03:18 6
IM Florida 2009-11-07 09:27:40 09:44:06 10:05:02 6
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:04:17 10:00:38 10:08:27 21
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 12:12:45 12:12:25 10:09:56 9
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 09:25:24 09:48:49 10:09:56 6
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:54:58 10:01:17 10:14:28 7
IM Florida 2008-11-01 09:17:51 09:37:50 10:18:01 3
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 09:50:45 09:51:05 10:29:35 3
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 10:17:01 10:22:34 10:44:14 12
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:22:44 10:22:58 10:55:21 36
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 10:56:31 10:56:56 11:21:14 17
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 11:51:15 11:50:53 11:50:53 59

Results for Candice Hammond (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 09:58:39 09:53:33 09:53:02 4
Challenge Cairns 2011-06-05 09:43:03 09:52:24 09:52:24 4

Results for Kate Bevilaqua (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 09:43:37 09:52:05 09:57:32 6
IM Korea 2011-07-03 09:39:44 09:47:30 09:58:17 1
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 09:40:01 09:41:43 09:59:46 4
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 09:19:44 09:32:35 10:02:21 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:19:31 10:21:45 10:06:56 34
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:53:39 09:57:55 10:04:22 4
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 10:19:45 10:17:32 10:05:38 5
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 10:18:12 10:25:27 10:02:56 7
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 09:45:53 10:03:22 09:56:50 5
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 09:20:06 09:27:15 09:54:39 2
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:00:56 10:01:09 10:01:36 25
IM Australia 2007-04-08 09:37:00 09:39:45 10:01:45 4
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 09:27:05 09:33:50 10:09:14 4
IM Lanzarote 2006-05-20 10:51:14 10:46:25 10:25:03 5
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 10:07:42 10:07:23 10:11:49 31
IM Coeur d’Alene 2005-06-26 10:16:40 10:16:40 10:16:40 2

Results for Belinda Harper (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Roth 2011-07-10 09:06:47 09:31:03 10:10:30 4
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 09:40:33 09:42:15 10:32:50 5
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15 11:23:15 11:25:59 11:25:59 4

Results for Rachael Paxton (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Ironman Hawaii Predictions – an early, first crack

One thing I plan to do for this year is focus on the main long distance triathlon of the year – Ironman World Championships in Kona. But the race is not until October, so it’s still a bit away. Nonetheless, I will calculate the odds for winning the race and update them when new results come in. So let’s have a look at how I’m putting together the field and what predictions I come up with at this point.

Putting together the field

As the race is almost a year away, it is a bit tricky to figure out who will be starting – especially as the field is determined by the Kona Pro Ranking and most potential starters haven’t secured their spots yet. Still, most starters are pretty obvious, so it’s not too difficult to put together a field:

  1. TOP 10 from last year’s race
    There is a pretty high probability that these athletes want to start again in 2012. As they have quite a few KPR points from the Kona race, they just have to race another IM to be eligible for a slot.
  2. Recent champions
    Athletes that won in the last five years are guaranteed a spot as long as they validate their spot by finishing an IM. At this point, this includes Craig Alexander, Chris McCormack, Chrissie Wellington and Mirinda Carfrae.
  3. Top spots from the current KPR standings
    The more qualifying races are run, the more athletes I will take from this group. Right now, there have been 7 of 24 races, so I fill about a quarter of the remaining spots from the current KPR standings.
  4. Top spots from the current TTR ratings
    In order to fill the field to capacity (50 athletes for the men, 30 for the women), the rest is taken from my top ratings.
  5. Remove athletes that will probably not start
    There are some athletes that have stated that they will not be starting in Kona (Chrissie taking a year off, Macca focusing on the Olympics, Julie Dibens who can only race one IM per year for health reasons, Karin Thürig who ended her career) or that are not eligible to race (Michael Weiss serving a doping ban).

This way, the best athletes (i.e. those that have a reasonable chance to win the race) are included in the field.

Male Participants

Here’s a look at the winning odds for the men’s race:

Athlete Dec 2011
Craig Alexander 30%
Andreas Raelert 17%
Marino Vanhoenacker 15%
Pete Jacobs 11%
Eneko Llanos 9%
Paul Amey 7%

(There were no significant changes in January, so I just have one set of odds for the men.)

At this point, Crowie is still the overall favorite for 2012. Based on his performance in Kona 2011, Pete Jacobs might be expected a bit higher up in the odds, but he’s had a few sub-par performances in the past. Eneko Llanos and Paul Amey profit from their fast races in Arizona and are the last athletes with a significant statistical chance of winning Kona. (There are a few athletes with a 1 or 2% chance, but for me they don’t even an outside side of winning.)

Female Participants

The female side has seen a bit of movement in January with Chrissie’s announcement of a break:

Athlete Dec 2011 Jan 2012
Chrissie Wellington 67%
Mirinda Carfrae 16% 45%
Leanda Cave 6% 18%
Caroline Steffen 2% 8%
Mary Beth Ellis 2% 6%
Catriona Morrison 2% 4%
Rachel Joyce 1% 4%

(None of the athletes on this list raced in January, so the change is a result of taking Chrissie off the start list.)

In December, anyone beating against Chrissie would have been foolish. Now that she decided not to race an IM in 2012, Rinnie has taken over the role of the favorite – in fact she’s got a higher winning chance than Crowie. The other athletes’ chances also took a boost. Leanda Cave stands a bit above the other contenders (and she will do her best to keep the Kona crown in Great Britain). A few more athletes now have a decent chance of winning that were just statistical blips in December. I expected quite some movement in the female ranking based on the 2012 season. While it will be hard for anyone to take the top spot from Rinnie, I’m sure we will see a few new names as potential Kona winners.

Challenge Wanaka 2012 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

The conditions in Wanaka seemed to be pretty hard, the race adjustment of –4:36 is one of the slowest in the last years.  The course rating has dropped by more than a full minute to 2:03 – just barely faster than IM Hawaii.

Male Results

Aaron Farlow put in a solid race to win another long distance triathlon:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Aaron Farlow AUS 08:41:53 08:48:52
2 Jamie Whyte NZL 08:51:53 09:02:20
3 Kieran Doe NZL 08:57:17 08:50:17
4 Courtney Ogden AUS 09:08:42 08:50:32
5 Jimmy Johnsen DNK 09:09:05 08:54:10
6 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:15:21 09:02:34
7 Scott Defilippis USA 09:16:00 09:31:21
8 Marc Pschebizin GER 09:22:35 09:22:22
9 Simon Cochrane NZL 09:23:15 n/a

Last year’s champion Jamie Whyte also had a strong race and finished  second. After more than a year of not finishing Ironman-distance races and being in a crash with severe injuries  close to this race, Kieran Doe grabbed the last podium spot in a time that was only a little bit  slower than predicted.

Female Results

Gina Crawford proved that she is back after her baby-break and won in a convincing fashion:

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Gina Crawford NZL 09:44:06 09:42:51
2 Britta Martin NZL 09:47:39 10:01:14
3 Simone Maier GER 09:57:42 10:20:34
4 Candice Hammond NZL 09:58:39 09:57:26
5 Julia Grant NZL 10:01:49 n/a
6 Nicole Ward AUS 10:12:39 10:10:10
7 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 10:16:23 n/a
8 Jodie Scott AUS 10:53:43 10:46:32
9 Jo Carrel NZL 11:26:19 10:57:27
10 Sarah Richardson   11:40:20 n/a

Britta Martin ran her way into second place. She and third-place Simone Maier were the only women who managed to finish faster than their expected times.

Triathlon Rating Report 2011 is ready for download!

My 2011 Rating Report focuses on

  • the TOP 10 ratings at the end of the year
  • the best performances of 2011
  • the Ironman Money List
  • a discussion of the improvements in world records
  • tons of data about 2011 races and athletes participating in them

If you haven’t already, please join my mailing list in order to be notified when new reports become available (just use the form in the sidebar on the right).

Download the Report here.

Feel free to share with others interested in a statistical look at the 2011 season and let me know what you think.

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