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Ironman Cozumel 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

This year IM Cozumel had the fastest conditions ever for that course, mainly on the bike (maybe not too much wind?). Winner Frederik Van Lierde posted a new course record and got pretty close to breaking 8 hours, while female swim leader (and eventual second place finisher) Lauren Brandon posted a new swim course record, improving on Bree Wee’s 2009 time.

Male Race Results

Frederik Van Lierde was among the first in T1, then posted a strong bike to be within seconds of the lead in T2. He then went on to win the race by posting the strongest run of the bike leaders, winning with a new course record time. Matt Russell ran through the field by posting the second fastest marathon of the day and as last year finished in second place. After winning his first Ironman at Mont Tremblant, Chris Leiferman had another solid race and claimed the last spot on the podium.

Frederik Van Lierde validated his AQ Kona slot and is the first athlete to be a secure Kona 2017 Pro participant. In addition to him Matt Russell has enough points to be safe for a Kona slot.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 00:43:46 04:22:37 02:52:42 08:03:09 -09:54 US$ 20000
2 Matthew Russell USA 00:48:20 04:21:28 02:51:18 08:04:24 -28:37 US$ 10000
3 Chris Leiferman USA 00:48:28 04:21:09 02:55:58 08:09:11 02:40 US$ 6500
4 Michael Weiss AUT 00:48:26 04:17:45 02:59:55 08:10:44 -07:51 US$ 4000
5 Chris McDonald AUS 00:48:44 04:21:08 03:02:35 08:15:59 -20:08 US$ 3000
6 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 00:47:18 04:26:14 03:01:23 08:19:26 -13:37 US$ 2000
7 Jozsef Major HUN 00:57:13 04:32:31 02:46:50 08:21:33 -22:34 US$ 1500
8 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 00:47:14 04:22:33 03:08:44 08:23:01 -24:44 US$ 1250
9 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 00:44:09 04:39:53 02:57:03 08:24:44 -00:53 US$ 1000
10 Philipp Koutny SUI 00:48:16 04:32:43 03:04:22 08:29:16 n/a US$ 750
11 Barrett Brandon USA 00:43:37 04:41:02 03:10:14 08:39:39 07:02
12 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 00:46:39 04:42:43 03:07:21 08:41:21 -07:50
13 Kevin Collington USA 00:43:46 04:40:48 03:17:46 08:45:52 28:11
14 Anton Blokhin UKR 00:46:36 04:42:53 03:14:42 08:48:22 12:30
15 Alan Carrillo MEX 00:51:32 04:48:09 03:10:22 08:54:46 n/a
16 Frederic Garcia FRA 00:57:05 04:51:53 03:03:51 08:58:05 -14:18
17 Scott Bradley USA 00:58:16 04:37:11 03:18:44 08:59:52 -17:49
18 Josep Vinolas ESP 00:51:24 04:45:11 03:19:44 09:00:20 08:29
19 Oliver Gonzalez MEX 00:46:32 05:05:38 03:10:55 09:08:07 -12:01
20 Jarrod Shoemaker USA 00:43:44 05:12:26 03:08:57 09:09:10 n/a
21 Jorge Vazquez MEX 00:48:21 04:57:52 03:34:21 09:26:48 -20:13
22 Gilian Oriet SUI 00:54:41 05:09:11 03:28:52 09:39:58 -10:24
23 Igor Amorelli BRA 00:43:41 04:23:09 04:31:06 09:41:32 1:13:49
24 Bruno Matheus BRA 00:47:11 05:13:42 03:35:16 09:41:32 n/a
25 Sergio Quezada MEX 00:48:18 05:08:53 03:41:42 09:44:17 -13:46
26 Eduardo Chong MEX 00:57:00 05:08:12 03:39:28 09:49:29 -04:13
27 Stephen Bayliss GBR 00:43:41 05:20:57 03:47:03 09:55:49 1:17:33
28 Derek Yorek USA 01:03:14 05:06:26 04:02:12 10:21:46 n/a
29 Rod De Kanel FRA 00:46:34 05:02:11 04:50:39 10:44:58 35:34
30 Scott Defilippis USA 00:51:54 04:56:29 05:08:10 11:02:05 1:10:02
Mark Oude Bennink NED 00:43:48 DNF
Alessandro Degasperi ITA 00:48:21 DNF
Trevor Delsaut FRA 00:48:25 DNF
Christopher Bagg USA 00:48:27 DNF

Female Race Results

Lauren Brandon was leading after the swim by almost five minutes, posting a new swim course record. She reached T2 together with the “Danish Duo” of Michelle Vesterby and Camilla Pedersen. Camilla was leading the race for most of the run, but eventually faded at the end and finished in third place. In her first IM finish in Texas Lauren was also leading into T1 and T2 but the struggled on the run (3:56). In Cozumel she ran a steady 3:23 and was able to finish in second place. The win went to Michelle Vesterby who had the best run of the leaders into T2, ending her 2016 racing year with her third Ironman win. Last year’s winner Corinne Abraham finished fourth after a long injury break – she posted the best marathon of the day and without a double flat towards the end of the bike she could have finished on the podium. Rachel McBride had a solid day to finish fifth in her first full Ironman race.

After her 6th place in Kona Michelle Vesterby has enough points to be safe for a Kona slot. Camilla Pedersen is close but needs a few more points, she should be fine with two good 70.3 results.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:50:30 04:54:14 03:19:18 09:08:06 -01:57 US$ 20000
2 Lauren Brandon USA 00:45:43 04:58:52 03:23:53 09:12:43 n/a US$ 10000
3 Camilla Pedersen DEN 00:50:26 04:54:16 03:25:34 09:14:11 06:40 US$ 6500
4 Corinne Abraham GBR 00:56:48 05:10:41 03:07:44 09:19:14 09:52 US$ 4000
5 Rachel McBride CAN 00:53:06 04:59:14 03:32:42 09:29:33 n/a US$ 3000
6 Celine Schaerer SUI 00:50:35 05:18:02 03:23:50 09:37:20 16:25 US$ 2000
7 Kelly Fillnow USA 01:02:41 05:12:58 03:18:13 09:38:23 -08:15 US$ 1500
8 Nicole Valentine USA 01:00:58 05:20:26 03:17:22 09:43:26 -32:59 US$ 1250
9 Annett Finger GER 00:56:52 05:16:22 03:28:40 09:46:15 -12:09 US$ 1000
10 Lauren Capone USA 00:56:52 05:36:32 03:10:40 09:50:21 13:16 US$ 750
11 April Gellatly USA 00:53:10 05:12:11 03:43:07 09:53:46 -09:47
12 Palmira Alvarez MEX 01:02:54 05:18:54 03:32:07 09:58:13 -48:06
13 Amanda Wendorff USA 00:56:51 05:13:36 03:44:11 09:59:18 14:54
14 Neilia Bliss USA 01:02:49 05:22:16 03:49:48 10:20:35 09:29
15 Amelia McCracken USA 01:10:23 05:37:21 03:47:23 10:41:01 n/a
Molly Roohi USA 00:59:29 05:20:53 DNF
Caroline St-Pierre CAN 00:56:55 05:55:01 DNF
Amy Vantassel USA 01:02:47 05:53:04 DNF
Amber Ferreira USA 00:50:34 DNF

Ironman Arizona 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

This year’s edition of IM Arizona has been another extremely fast race: Calm and relatively cool conditions lead to an adjustment of 24:21, the fastest ever on the Arizona course – no surprise when we’ve seen a number of crazy fast times.

Lionel Sanders posted a new course record of 7:44:29 which is also the fastest time ever in an Ironman®-branded race. (There’s been a bit of uproar when Ironman started calling the time a world-record – completely ignoring Jan Frodeno’s 7:35 from Roth this year. I completely understand that they don’t want to call attention to Roth, but completely ignoring it seems more like a sign of weakness to me.) Lionel had a great race, he posted new “personal bests” in each of the legs. He had the fastest bike leg of the day (4:04:38, the fastest bike leg of the year but still short of the course record 4:03 by Andy Starykowicz) and the second fastest run leg. If his race produced a world-record, it his “on-land-time”: His bike and run took a combined 6:47:09 (excluding transitions), the previously fastest time was by Jan at Roth 2016 (combined 6:47:25). Rafael Goncalves posted a new swim record (45:31, improving on Kieran Doe’s time from 2008); and Brent McMahon had the fastest run of the day, his 2:40:17 is also new course record.

Even if Meredith’s 8:48 was a few minutes short of her own course record, there were fast times on the female side as well: Yvonne Van Vlerken posted a new bike course record, her 4:40:40 improved on Meredith’s 4:42 from last year. Angela Naeth was even faster, but she had to end her race shortly after T2.

Male Race Results

Rafael Goncalves was leading after the swim before Cameron Wurf quickly went to the front, apparently chasing the bike course record. He was first into T2, but Lionel Sanders took the lead shortly after. Lionel was racing smart and had enough in the tank to secure a new course record with very solid last few miles. Brent McMahon was faster than ever before in all his legs, but the best possible finish for him was second place. TJ Tollakson had a solid day, repeating his third place from last year, also posting a new personal best.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Lionel Sanders CAN 00:53:45 04:04:38 02:42:31 07:44:29 -27:37 US$ 20000
2 Brent McMahon CAN 00:48:21 04:18:20 02:40:17 07:50:15 -07:08 US$ 10000
3 TJ Tollakson USA 00:49:40 04:11:59 02:56:43 08:02:30 -12:04 US$ 6500
4 David Plese SLO 00:53:57 04:20:46 02:45:17 08:04:29 -13:23 US$ 4000
5 Giulio Molinari ITA 00:49:35 04:15:07 02:58:25 08:06:47 n/a US$ 3000
6 Pedro Gomes POR 00:53:46 04:21:02 02:52:54 08:11:15 -06:17 US$ 2000
7 Joe Gambles AUS 00:49:50 04:21:58 02:57:12 08:12:36 -00:19 US$ 1500
8 Matic Modic SLO 00:56:48 04:22:54 02:54:31 08:17:57 -12:20 US$ 1250
9 Per Bittner GER 00:49:45 04:26:23 02:58:24 08:18:23 -01:12 US$ 1000
10 Jens Frommhold GER 00:55:37 04:21:55 03:00:32 08:21:48 -44:38 US$ 750
11 Jose Estrangeiro POR 00:49:51 04:32:18 03:00:31 08:26:38 n/a
12 Jesse Vondracek USA 00:54:03 04:28:08 03:01:26 08:27:23 -29:56
13 Tripp Hipple USA 00:53:53 04:28:26 03:01:39 08:27:45 n/a
14 Cameron Wurf AUS 00:49:52 04:05:45 03:28:21 08:27:53 -33:46
15 Sam Long USA 00:55:37 04:23:49 03:06:36 08:29:07 n/a
16 Adam O’Meara CAN 00:49:50 04:32:16 03:10:50 08:37:24 -30:45
17 Josh Terwoord USA 01:02:38 04:41:27 02:48:45 08:37:52 n/a
18 Pete Jacobs AUS 00:49:42 04:42:32 03:03:36 08:40:34 15:31
19 Chad Holderbaum USA 00:53:57 04:30:28 03:12:03 08:40:43 -01:59
20 Philip Graves GBR 00:49:37 04:15:12 03:32:21 08:41:48 15:01
21 Jordan Bryden CAN 00:49:51 04:32:08 03:16:09 08:42:54 -22:06
22 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 00:54:09 04:38:36 03:08:54 08:46:35 -17:07
23 Dylan Gleeson CAN 00:54:00 04:27:32 03:22:05 08:47:25 -07:08
24 Douglas MacLean USA 00:57:59 04:43:13 03:02:50 08:48:53 -06:18
25 Yu Hsiao TWN 00:56:58 04:38:02 03:09:35 08:49:00 n/a
26 James Lubinski USA 01:03:00 04:39:57 03:06:29 08:54:27 -04:15
27 Patrick Bless GER 00:55:44 04:52:36 03:02:36 08:55:16 -05:41
28 Patrick Brady USA 01:04:51 04:37:37 03:07:04 08:55:17 n/a
29 Colin Laughery USA 01:02:14 04:36:46 03:10:50 08:55:19 01:07
30 Benson Hall USA 00:55:41 04:30:18 03:25:33 08:56:05 n/a
31 Matt Shanks USA 01:00:01 04:47:15 03:06:09 08:57:42 -23:37
32 Anthony Toth CAN 00:56:20 04:43:22 03:17:52 09:02:06 -03:13
33 Dirk Baelus BEL 00:58:04 04:47:37 03:19:12 09:09:23 18:03
34 Nathan Champness CAN 00:54:07 04:34:16 03:37:36 09:11:53 00:42
35 Vinicio Ibarra MEX 00:49:43 04:46:25 03:31:33 09:12:59 n/a
36 Dantley Young USA 01:07:03 04:53:58 03:08:08 09:16:34 -12:16
37 Elmar Heger GER 00:57:02 04:41:41 03:34:13 09:18:28 -13:25
38 Rafael Goncalves BRA 00:45:31 04:49:13 03:47:34 09:27:06 n/a
39 Adam O’Connor USA 00:50:19 05:11:35 04:37:07 10:45:37 n/a
Thomas Gerlach USA 00:53:49 04:23:35 DNF
Raymond Botelho USA 00:55:36 04:32:54 DNF
Robbie Wade IRL 00:54:01 04:41:39 DNF
Andrew Fast USA 00:57:55 04:43:28 DNF
Matt Chrabot USA 00:46:39 DNF
Lewis Elliot USA 00:54:13 DNF

Female Race Results

Meredith Kessler won the female race, leading from wire to wire. She’s the IM Arizona champion for the third time in a row – the last time she did not win an Ironman outside of Kona was IM Arizona 2013 when she was second to Julia Gajer by less than three minutes. After the swim Yvonne Van Vlerken was more than eight minutes behind, but she was able to close the gap on the bike and early on the run, keeping up the pressure on Meredith. But Meredith held on to her lead, with Yvonne finishing second. IM rookie Malindi Elmore finished third after a solid day with the second fastest marathon. The fastest run was by Ruth Brennan Morrey in fourth place, reaching her goal of a sub-3 run.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Meredith Kessler USA 00:49:31 04:44:24 03:09:40 08:48:23 -09:26 US$ 20000
2 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 00:58:04 04:40:40 03:08:43 08:51:27 -01:01 US$ 10000
3 Malindi Elmore CAN 01:01:01 04:51:06 03:00:52 08:57:22 n/a US$ 6500
4 Ruth Brennan Morrey USA 01:05:35 04:53:13 02:57:45 09:02:28 -16:37 US$ 4000
5 Leanda Cave GBR 00:53:14 04:58:51 03:13:30 09:10:41 05:17 US$ 3000
6 Darbi Roberts USA 00:54:34 05:00:40 03:14:10 09:13:42 -09:16 US$ 2000
7 Jen Annett CAN 01:03:53 04:43:57 03:25:34 09:17:34 -18:57 US$ 1500
8 Kelly Williamson USA 00:53:58 05:16:22 03:07:03 09:22:00 16:30 US$ 1250
9 Emily Cocks USA 00:53:07 05:08:32 03:18:38 09:25:10 n/a US$ 1000
10 Danielle Mack USA 01:00:21 05:20:27 03:01:49 09:26:17 13:11 US$ 750
11 Skye Moench USA 01:00:15 04:58:01 03:24:06 09:27:07 n/a
12 Ashley Paulson USA 01:09:54 05:12:26 03:09:39 09:36:48 -09:50
13 Rachel Jastrebsky USA 01:00:42 05:07:00 03:25:07 09:37:34 -19:11
14 Jessica Smith USA 00:55:35 05:07:56 03:30:41 09:38:23 -12:53
15 Mackenzie Madison USA 01:00:48 04:57:29 03:38:37 09:42:08 24:41
16 Marina Jurjevic AUS 01:06:56 05:04:16 03:29:38 09:46:42 -09:36
17 Kristin Lie NOR 01:12:19 05:06:11 03:30:40 09:54:06 09:52
18 Nicole Luse USA 01:08:55 05:21:30 03:18:37 09:54:16 -26:38
19 Amy Javens USA 01:08:02 04:58:39 03:47:43 10:00:25 10:08
20 Sarah Bay USA 01:07:51 05:13:36 03:33:54 10:01:45 n/a
21 Liz Baugher USA 00:58:52 05:24:04 03:44:59 10:13:19 n/a
22 Caroline Martineau CAN 01:04:34 05:18:31 04:09:19 10:39:42 25:32
23 Carrie Mccoy USA 01:13:51 05:22:30 03:55:58 10:39:42 n/a
24 Amanda Stevens USA 00:54:31 05:21:02 04:20:49 10:41:28 1:35:39
Angela Naeth CAN 01:00:17 04:36:45 DNF

Ironman Western Australia 2016 (Dec 4th) – Predictions

IMWALogo

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Mitchell Anderson (AUS) 08:27:35 Charlotte Paul (AUS) 09:47:27
2006 Jason Shortis (AUS) 08:03:55 Lisbeth Kristensen (DEN) 09:10:00
2007 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:05:58 Charlotte Paul (AUS) 09:00:54
2008 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:07:06 Gina Crawford (NZL) 08:59:24
2009 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:13:59 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:16:52
2010 Courtney Ogden (AUS) 08:14:01 Kate Bevilaqua (AUS) 09:19:44
2011 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:12:39 Michelle Bremer (NZL) 09:25:38
2012 Jimmy Johnsen (DEN) 08:29:06 Britta Martin (NZL) 09:13:00
2013 Jeremy Jurkiewicz (FRA) 08:08:16 Elizabeth Lyles (USA) 08:59:44
2014 Denis Chevrot (FRA) 08:05:58 Britta Martin (NZL) 08:56:34
2015 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 07:55:58 Sarah Piampiano (USA) 09:03:47

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Luke McKenzie AUS 00:50:31 04:08:12 02:52:29 07:55:58
2 Denis Chevrot FRA 00:48:45 04:28:58 02:54:49 08:16:24
3 Per Bittner GER 00:50:56 04:27:33 02:56:37 08:19:15

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Sarah Piampiano USA 01:06:49 04:50:46 03:01:18 09:03:47
2 Mareen Hufe GER 01:06:52 04:47:38 03:10:18 09:09:16
3 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 01:02:53 04:49:09 03:15:50 09:12:07

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:55:58 Luke McKenzie 2015-12-06
Swim overall 00:44:42 Pete Jacobs 2007-12-01
Bike overall 04:08:12 Luke McKenzie 2015-12-06
Run overall 02:43:48 Robert Thomas 2007-12-01
Total female 08:56:34 Britta Martin 2014-12-07
Swim female 00:48:25 Tereza Macel 2007-12-01
Bike female 04:44:16 Mareen Hufe 2014-12-07
Run female 02:58:17 Beth Gerdes 2014-12-07

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Western Australia is 13:37.

Race Adjustments for IM Western Australia

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 01:54 -02:58 01:52 -02:32 27 01:54 -02:58 01:52 -02:32
2006 16:01 00:31 15:04 02:55 31 08:57 -01:14 08:28 00:12
2007 23:57 00:43 13:40 04:29 47 13:57 -00:35 10:12 01:37
2008 15:30 -00:07 15:24 00:34 39 14:20 -00:28 11:30 01:22
2009 14:55 01:15 14:35 -04:00 25 14:27 -00:07 12:07 00:17
2010 09:38 00:10 10:09 02:05 24 13:39 -00:04 11:48 00:35
2011 03:58 -00:22 09:00 02:33 27 12:16 -00:07 11:24 00:52
2012 13:06 -01:22 08:48 02:36 26 12:22 -00:16 11:04 01:05
2013 19:46 00:06 15:19 06:32 22 of 30 13:12 -00:14 11:33 01:41
2014 16:05 00:57 17:24 04:16 32 of 48 13:29 -00:07 12:08 01:57
2015 14:58 -02:36 14:05 06:34 15 of 22 13:37 -00:20 12:18 02:22

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Western Australia is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 2 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 09:04:53 09:29:07 00:57:00 04:56:07 03:06:46 44% +17% -38% (4) 21
2 1 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:07:36 09:29:36 01:03:02 04:53:07 03:06:28 58% +33% -9% (16) 23
3 4 Asa Lundstroem SWE 09:12:21 09:29:28 01:00:18 04:56:37 03:10:27 89% +11% -0% (15) 22
4 3 Mareen Hufe GER 09:13:06 09:34:51 01:00:59 04:50:12 03:16:55 86% +5% -9% (22) 35
5 6 Laura Siddall GBR 09:14:33 09:37:36 00:58:10 04:53:55 03:17:28 46% +44% -10% (8) 39
6 9 Elisabeth Gruber AUT 09:20:05 09:36:46 01:02:46 05:03:40 03:08:39 100% +0% -0% (7) 36
7 5 Lisa Roberts USA 09:20:32 09:32:49 01:04:35 05:06:29 03:04:28 80% +3% -18% (17) 30
8 11 Vanessa Murray NZL 09:41:20 10:02:21 00:55:25 05:16:07 03:24:48 100% +0% -0% (2) (77)
9 8 Kym Coogan AUS 09:43:43 10:07:34 00:57:09 05:08:13 03:33:21 61% +0% -39% (4) 86
10 7 Rahel Bellinga NED 10:08:07 10:31:32 01:05:26 05:07:01 03:50:41 46% +30% -25% (6) 127
11 14 Emi Sakai JPN 10:11:47 10:34:10 01:07:23 05:19:05 03:40:19 46% +4% -50% (10) 128
12 10 Tracy Morrison AUS 10:14:51 10:37:22 01:02:48 05:33:59 03:33:04 100% +0% -0% (2) (132)
12 Lauren Parker AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (2) (n/a)
15 Alise Selsmark AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
16 Georgia Stott AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 22 Andy Potts USA 08:11:34 08:22:32 00:47:30 04:25:53 02:53:12 100% +0% -0% (15) 8
2 39 Nick Kastelein AUS 08:15:02 08:38:03 00:48:13 04:22:52 02:58:57 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (51)
3 20 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:16:31 08:35:24 00:46:46 04:30:08 02:54:37 58% +8% -35% (10) 38
4 24 Jeff Symonds CAN 08:19:48 08:30:38 00:51:26 04:37:59 02:45:24 72% +13% -15% (8) 27
5 25 Clayton Fettell AUS 08:20:09 08:44:53 00:45:55 04:22:30 03:06:45 10% +24% -66% (8) 74
6 21 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:23:35 08:38:21 00:48:38 04:31:26 02:58:31 54% +1% -45% (11) 52
7 47 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:25:51 08:48:47 00:50:40 04:33:06 02:57:05 53% +2% -45% (20) (88)
8 26 Michael Fox AUS 08:26:05 08:49:04 00:47:26 04:33:24 03:00:15 35% +65% -0% (2) (89)
9 23 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:26:33 08:47:09 00:50:40 04:37:08 02:53:45 58% +0% -42% (16) 83
10 31 Alberto Casadei ITA 08:27:53 08:47:20 00:48:19 04:39:09 02:55:25 24% +27% -49% (9) 85
11 56 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:29:19 08:50:39 00:49:22 04:28:57 03:06:00 49% +16% -35% (13) 94
12 46 Ritchie Nicholls GBR 08:32:01 08:49:51 00:51:35 04:44:32 02:50:54 48% +0% -52% (6) 91
13 27 Konstantin Bachor GER 08:32:21 08:46:29 00:50:36 04:26:57 03:09:48 34% +6% -59% (11) 81
14 29 Matt Burton AUS 08:35:24 09:15:10 00:54:12 04:28:35 03:07:38 21% +0% -79% (6) (172)
15 37 Esben Hovgaard DEN 08:37:12 08:55:55 00:53:44 04:34:18 03:04:11 54% +18% -28% (10) 110
16 51 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:37:52 09:00:05 00:53:55 04:32:21 03:06:36 54% +9% -38% (15) 126
17 57 Thiago Vinhal BRA 08:40:49 09:00:42 00:50:01 04:47:07 02:58:41 72% +18% -10% (12) 131
18 28 Simon Billeau FRA 08:42:30 09:08:55 00:53:52 04:30:12 03:13:26 36% +0% -64% (18) 155
19 36 Patrick Evoe USA 08:46:18 08:56:44 00:56:00 04:35:40 03:09:38 91% +3% -6% (24) 113
20 35 Karol Dzalaj SVK 08:46:26 09:13:24 00:53:51 04:35:58 03:11:38 70% +11% -18% (13) (167)
21 49 Carl Read NZL 08:47:14 09:05:19 00:53:05 04:49:36 02:59:32 56% +14% -31% (9) (147)
22 41 Luke Martin AUS 08:47:33 09:07:59 00:52:50 04:44:04 03:05:39 71% +0% -29% (4) (151)
23 55 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:49:07 09:04:10 00:56:32 04:41:51 03:05:44 66% +1% -33% (95) 145
24 54 Graeme Stewart GBR 08:49:43 09:13:37 00:54:24 04:41:46 03:08:33 33% +25% -42% (14) 168
25 52 Pavel Simko SVK 08:51:06 09:24:30 00:52:17 04:34:25 03:19:24 47% +0% -53% (2) (196)
26 42 Levi Maxwell AUS 08:56:09 09:21:04 00:54:06 04:48:08 03:08:55 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (187)
27 50 Till Schramm GER 09:01:00 09:24:15 00:56:06 04:43:02 03:16:52 5% +54% -41% (7) 194
28 38 Darren Jenkins AUS 09:03:56 09:29:17 01:05:53 04:49:15 03:03:49 42% +0% -58% (10) 208
29 48 Matthew Pellow AUS 09:06:37 09:32:01 00:47:05 04:41:53 03:32:39 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (211)
30 40 Michael Louys BEL 09:09:45 09:40:34 01:03:37 04:45:24 03:15:44 52% +8% -41% (11) 229
31 53 Leigh Stabryla AUS 09:09:54 09:35:27 00:52:28 05:08:57 03:03:29 51% +0% -49% (2) (219)
32 30 Allister Caird AUS 09:19:17 09:48:03 00:56:36 04:46:23 03:31:18 31% +0% -69% (3) (245)
33 34 Vincent Depuiset FRA 09:31:43 09:55:40 01:08:32 04:59:27 03:18:45 57% +20% -23% (11) 255
34 45 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:28:24 12:01:54 01:12:38 05:41:26 04:29:21 30% +25% -45% (39) 284
32 Giles Clayton AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
33 Derek Cross AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
43 Bryce McMaster NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Female Race Participants

  • Sarah Piampiano: 38% (2-1)
  • Melissa Hauschildt: 33% (2-1)
  • Asa Lundstroem: 15% (6-1)
  • Mareen Hufe: 8% (11-1)
  • Laura Siddall: 5% (19-1)

Male Race Participants

  • Andy Potts: 69% (1-1)
  • Denis Chevrot: 10% (9-1)
  • Jeff Symonds: 10% (9-1)
  • Jan Van Berkel: 5% (19-1)
  • Clayton Fettell: 3% (36-1)

Ironman Cozumel (Nov 27th) – Predictions

IMCozLogo

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2009 Rutger Beke (BEL) 08:18:40 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 09:06:58
2010 Andy Potts (USA) 08:15:57 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 09:07:08
2011 Michael Lovato (USA) 08:23:52 Simone Braendli (SUI) 09:14:08
2012 Ivan Rana (ESP) 08:15:07 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 09:15:38
2013 Michael Weiss (AUT) 07:55:23 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:52:28
2014 Michael Weiss (AUT) 08:12:16 Nicola Spirig (SUI) 09:14:07
2015 Stefan Schmid (GER) 08:12:27 Corinne Abraham (GBR) 09:06:40

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Stefan Schmid GER 00:47:02 04:26:55 02:53:44 08:12:27
2 Matthew Russell USA 00:49:41 04:32:17 02:47:49 08:14:10
3 Michael Weiss AUT 00:49:40 04:29:41 03:00:13 08:24:24

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Corinne Abraham GBR 00:53:49 05:01:15 03:07:38 09:06:40
2 Leanda Cave GBR 00:47:21 05:05:22 03:16:17 09:13:29
3 Camilla Pedersen DEN 00:48:50 05:06:25 03:14:14 09:14:08

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:12:16 Michael Weiss 2014-11-30
Swim overall 00:41:48 John Kenny 2009-11-29
Bike overall 04:19:17 Michael Lovato 2011-11-27
Run overall 02:44:05 Ivan Rana 2012-11-25
Total female 09:06:40 Corinne Abraham 2015-11-29
Swim female 00:46:39 Bree Wee 2009-11-29
Bike female 04:45:20 Simone Braendli 2011-11-27
Run female 02:57:02 Kelly Williamson 2014-11-30

Rachel Joyce’s winning time of 8:52:28 from 2013 is faster than what I have listed as the course record (similarly for the male winner), but that year the swim was shortened and therefore the times are not comparable.

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Cozumel is 05:50.

Race Adjustments for IM Cozumel

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2009 09:23 06:57 01:41 -00:40 31 of 34 09:23 06:57 01:41 -00:40
2010 07:36 00:56 13:27 -04:56 35 of 42 08:29 03:56 07:34 -02:48
2011 11:05 01:42 12:44 02:13 46 09:21 03:12 09:17 -01:08
2012 05:27 -04:03 07:10 -00:20 61 08:23 01:23 08:46 -00:56
2014 -02:36 02:38 -01:01 00:42 39 of 53 06:11 01:38 06:48 -00:36
2015 04:06 04:28 03:43 01:25 34 of 49 05:50 02:06 06:17 -00:16

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Cozumel is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 100.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 8 Chris Leiferman USA 08:16:38 08:32:09 00:49:24 04:37:11 02:45:02 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (29)
2 2 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:16:56 08:23:29 00:46:32 04:28:58 02:56:26 73% +13% -13% (21) 10
3 1 Michael Weiss AUT 08:18:18 08:34:16 00:51:13 04:22:04 03:00:01 91% +7% -1% (16) 37
4 3 Matthew Russell USA 08:24:28 08:43:28 00:52:56 04:32:13 02:54:19 48% +33% -19% (40) 67
5 5 Tim Don GBR 08:24:57 08:32:43 00:46:06 04:36:38 02:57:12 64% +0% -36% (4) 32
6 25 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 08:25:58 08:29:23 00:48:54 04:40:37 02:51:28 88% +0% -12% (8) 24
7 11 Kevin Collington USA 08:26:08 08:44:28 00:46:40 04:38:14 02:56:14 59% +0% -41% (3) (75)
8 7 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:30:03 08:45:28 00:46:16 04:33:19 03:05:28 19% +33% -47% (13) 80
9 14 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 08:33:29 08:36:31 00:47:39 04:47:25 02:53:24 94% +6% -0% (14) 46
10 26 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:33:39 08:51:58 00:51:00 04:40:58 02:56:41 41% +8% -51% (24) 98
11 37 Mark Oude Bennink NED 08:35:42 08:52:55 00:46:31 04:39:01 03:05:09 14% +61% -26% (8) 104
12 9 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:36:49 08:43:50 00:48:50 04:40:58 03:02:01 58% +22% -20% (12) 69
13 18 Barrett Brandon USA 08:38:22 08:54:21 00:45:23 04:43:21 03:04:38 55% +0% -45% (7) 106
14 15 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:40:02 08:52:32 00:47:22 04:44:17 03:03:23 62% +2% -35% (20) 100
15 13 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:41:15 08:56:27 00:46:03 04:43:14 03:06:59 33% +3% -64% (47) (115)
16 4 Chris McDonald AUS 08:44:06 08:46:50 00:51:32 04:41:30 03:06:04 72% +6% -23% (43) 84
17 33 Matic Modic * SLO 08:45:40 09:03:26 00:53:18 04:47:38 02:59:43 40% +35% -24% (9) 144
18 28 Thomas Gerlach * USA 08:47:28 09:01:16 00:52:15 04:39:04 03:11:08 39% +11% -51% (21) (136)
19 6 Jozsef Major HUN 08:49:53 08:54:57 00:55:58 04:42:48 03:06:08 81% +4% -15% (31) 109
20 24 Scott Defilippis USA 08:51:19 09:11:49 00:54:24 04:53:30 02:58:25 32% +29% -39% (22) (167)
21 21 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 08:51:50 09:04:01 00:49:32 04:38:56 03:18:22 39% +21% -40% (11) 147
22 31 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 08:52:49 09:00:26 00:47:45 04:51:49 03:08:14 87% +4% -9% (27) 131
23 12 Christopher Bagg USA 08:54:10 09:32:01 00:51:27 04:45:10 03:12:33 6% +27% -67% (13) (220)
24 41 Josep Vinolas ESP 08:57:54 09:08:57 00:54:25 04:49:20 03:09:09 15% +66% -19% (4) (161)
25 16 Raymond Botelho * USA 09:12:05 09:41:16 00:52:24 04:44:07 03:30:34 25% +28% -47% (15) (240)
26 27 Frederic Garcia FRA 09:23:29 09:46:54 00:54:55 05:06:02 03:17:32 32% +0% -68% (3) (254)
27 17 Scott Bradley USA 09:25:33 09:35:01 01:00:12 04:53:47 03:26:34 100% +0% -0% (3) 226
28 20 Emanuele Ciotti * ITA 09:29:41 09:37:36 00:51:01 04:55:35 03:38:04 43% +17% -40% (5) 231
29 36 Gilian Oriet SUI 09:49:51 10:08:55 00:55:30 05:03:10 03:46:11 24% +6% -70% (14) 274
30 40 Jorge Vazquez MEX 09:55:44 10:17:24 00:51:42 05:07:36 03:51:26 42% +0% -58% (3) (281)
31 38 Sergio Quezada MEX 09:57:05 10:19:51 00:50:10 05:07:36 03:54:19 47% +7% -46% (13) 282
32 19 Eduardo Chong MEX 10:02:53 10:24:49 00:58:35 05:18:53 03:40:24 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (286)
33 23 Reinaldo De Oliveira BRA 10:12:56 10:26:29 00:59:09 05:18:27 03:50:21 43% +0% -57% (7) 286
34 22 Rod De Kanel FRA 10:19:40 10:55:06 00:50:42 05:09:35 04:14:23 23% +0% -77% (3) (293)
30 Philipp Koutny SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (2) (n/a)
32 Bruno Matheus BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
34 Jeremy Morel FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
39 Jarrod Shoemaker USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
42 Derek Yorek USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 51 Corinne Abraham * GBR 09:10:09 09:21:26 00:56:19 04:59:22 03:09:28 83% +17% -0% (9) 11
2 54 Michelle Vesterby * DEN 09:11:40 09:21:53 00:49:44 05:01:26 03:15:30 79% +3% -18% (19) 12
3 53 Angela Naeth * CAN 09:11:53 09:32:29 00:56:22 04:55:31 03:15:00 25% +44% -31% (5) (30)
4 52 Camilla Pedersen DEN 09:15:36 09:19:29 00:50:08 05:02:55 03:17:33 86% +5% -9% (8) 8
5 55 Amanda Stevens * USA 09:25:28 09:34:44 00:49:21 05:09:54 03:21:14 44% +15% -41% (19) 34
6 58 Celine Schaerer SUI 09:27:53 09:39:07 00:47:46 05:10:35 03:24:32 81% +0% -19% (6) 40
7 62 Amber Ferreira USA 09:45:22 09:50:23 00:54:56 05:14:51 03:30:35 51% +18% -31% (16) 59
8 63 Kelly Fillnow USA 09:46:49 10:05:06 01:01:20 05:19:19 03:21:10 57% +43% -0% (10) 86
9 61 Lauren Capone USA 09:49:18 10:07:42 00:54:49 05:40:42 03:08:47 51% +0% -49% (2) (90)
10 72 Amanda Wendorff USA 09:56:47 10:15:26 00:55:15 05:14:49 03:41:43 59% +0% -41% (2) (102)
11 69 Caroline St-Pierre CAN 09:59:07 10:12:10 00:54:56 05:38:16 03:20:55 100% +0% -0% (2) (98)
12 65 April Gellatly USA 10:00:49 10:22:32 00:54:49 05:23:28 03:37:33 27% +14% -59% (15) 114
13 64 Annett Finger GER 10:10:54 10:23:20 01:00:45 05:24:14 03:40:55 18% +0% -82% (3) (115)
14 66 Amy Javens * USA 10:14:22 10:23:31 01:04:22 05:21:19 03:43:40 100% +0% -0% (5) 116
15 68 Molly Roohi USA 10:15:00 10:21:59 01:01:37 05:31:04 03:37:19 100% +0% -0% (5) 111
16 60 Neilia Bliss USA 10:21:00 10:30:44 01:01:01 05:35:13 03:39:47 100% +0% -0% (3) 128
17 70 Nicole Valentine USA 10:28:27 10:48:05 01:02:09 05:55:17 03:26:00 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (140)
18 73 Jennifer Lentzke CAN 10:45:44 10:56:55 01:10:43 05:39:34 03:50:26 72% +0% -28% (4) (142)
19 71 Amy Vantassel USA 10:50:01 11:10:20 01:08:16 05:55:03 03:41:43 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (147)
20 59 Palmira Alvarez MEX 10:58:38 11:12:29 01:12:31 05:43:31 03:57:35 100% +0% -0% (2) (147)
56 Lauren Brandon USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
57 Rachel McBride CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
67 Amelia McCracken USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Frederik Van Lierde: 33% (2-1)
  • Matthew Russell: 19% (4-1)
  • Michael Weiss: 17% (5-1)
  • Chris Leiferman: 11% (8-1)
  • Tim Don: 8% (12-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Corinne Abraham: 49% (1-1)
  • Angela Naeth: 26% (3-1)
  • Michelle Vesterby: 14% (6-1)
  • Camilla Pedersen: 8% (11-1)

Ironman Malaysia 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Compared to the typical times in Malaysia, this year’s race has been pretty fast – an adjustment of -3:37 was still slow, but about 9 minutes faster than Malaysia’s course rating of -12:27. Even though no new course records were posted, a couple of times were not too far off.

Male Race Results

After finishing second at Malaysia in the last two years, Fredrik Croneborg finally won the title in a close race. Second place Thiago Vinyl was just 33 seconds back, while Kaito Thora posted the fastest run to finish in third place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:52:36 04:42:02 03:01:22 08:39:12 -05:33 US$ 8000
2 Thiago Vinhal BRA 00:51:23 04:44:11 02:59:08 08:39:45 -23:44 US$ 4000
3 Kaito Tohara JPN 00:53:21 04:48:45 02:57:29 08:43:06 -18:39 US$ 3000
4 Daniil Sapunov UKR 00:48:51 04:47:29 02:59:50 08:45:00 -09:36 US$ 2500
5 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 00:48:45 04:45:55 03:08:55 08:47:00 00:13 US$ 1500
6 Marcel Zamora ESP 00:52:36 04:45:08 03:10:37 08:52:50 05:17 US$ 1000
7 Nick Baldwin SEY 00:55:15 04:41:30 03:13:14 08:53:32 -07:29  
8 Harry Wiltshire GBR 00:48:41 04:48:13 03:16:06 08:56:00 -01:42  
9 Alberto Casadei ITA 00:48:49 05:02:04 03:05:37 09:00:37 17:49  
10 Ritchie Nicholls GBR 00:52:37 04:59:05 03:09:46 09:04:59 23:01  
11 Balazs Csoke HUN 00:48:41 05:14:01 03:09:41 09:16:44 10:40  
12 Urs Mueller SUI 00:53:49 04:55:55 03:27:20 09:21:14 -07:00  
13 Darby Thomas FIN 01:00:11 04:41:38 03:36:52 09:22:38 25:12  
14 Young Hwan Oh KOR 01:03:20 05:05:22 03:19:10 09:32:37 -02:10  
15 Eneko Elosegui ESP 01:01:16 05:01:13 04:00:28 10:07:03 27:56  
16 Antony Costes FRA 00:48:52 04:48:58 04:27:45 10:09:16 49:56  
17 Josef Svoboda CZE 01:15:42 06:11:47 04:16:16 11:52:11 00:28  
18 Marek Nemcik SVK 01:15:20 06:12:19 04:55:39 12:31:42 32:54  
  Mitch Dean AUS 00:49:03 04:47:05   DNF    
  Jonathan Shearon USA 00:55:22 04:48:55   DNF    
  Ryan Palazzi AUS 00:52:40 04:56:17   DNF    
  Guillaume Jeannin FRA 00:55:17 04:54:23   DNF    
  Henry Beck GER 00:49:59 05:15:45   DNF    
  Nicolas Hemet FRA 00:57:33     DNF    

Female Race Results

After a number of DNFs in the summer (and a controversial DQ in Vichy) Diana Riesler was fit and healthy again and won IM Malaysia for the third time in a row. Mareen Hufe (who was forced to skip Kona with an injury) had a great return to racing. After a good swim and a controlled bike she was able to overtake Laura Siddall who finished third. Tine Holst had the best run to finish in fourth place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Diana Riesler GER 00:58:50 05:01:33 03:21:37 09:25:34 -11:07 US$ 8000
2 Mareen Hufe GER 01:00:37 05:06:25 03:24:30 09:35:24 -04:55 US$ 4000
3 Laura Siddall GBR 01:00:33 05:05:57 03:27:09 09:37:51 01:02 US$ 3000
4 Tine Holst DEN 01:05:24 05:13:10 03:19:16 09:41:48 -17:44 US$ 2500
5 Erin Green USA 01:01:01 05:33:18 03:31:03 10:11:54 -25:36 US$ 1500
6 Shiao-yu Li TWN 01:05:28 05:31:13 03:40:13 10:21:11 18:02 US$ 1000
7 Lina-Kristin Schink GER 01:11:47 05:29:10 03:40:19 10:25:13 11:42  
8 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 00:57:45 05:39:25 03:53:17 10:34:54 05:24  
9 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 00:57:53 05:25:57 04:16:19 10:44:29 48:59  
  Brooke Brown CAN 01:07:05     DNF    
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