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Ironman Switzerland 2016 (July 24th) – Predictions

IMZürichUpdate July 13th: Matt Trautmann tweeted that he is injured and won’t be able to race in Zürich.

Update July 20th: In the latest startlist a few names have been removed, they are crossed out in the predictions table.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Christoph Mauch (SUI) 08:21:48 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:10:51
2006 Mathias Hecht (SUI)
Stefan Riesen (SUI)
08:26:01
08:16:50
Rebecca Preston (AUS) 09:24:18
2007 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:24:58 Rebecca Preston (AUS) 09:20:40
2008 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:16:05 Sibylle Matter (SUI) 09:30:12
2009 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:20:00 Sibylle Matter (SUI) 09:14:35
2010 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:12:40 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:00:04
2011 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:19:51 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:03:26
2012 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:17:13 Erika Csomor (HUN) 09:20:16
2013 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:33:39 Anja Beranek (GER) 09:21:31
2014 Boris Stein (GER) 08:33:02 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 09:13:30
2015 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:21:19 Beth Gerdes (USA) 09:21:05

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:55:14 04:32:11 02:50:02 08:21:19
2 Jan Van Berkel SUI 00:50:47 04:33:04 03:00:53 08:28:57
3 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 00:55:16 04:44:47 02:47:07 08:31:36

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Beth Gerdes USA 01:00:53 05:13:40 03:01:24 09:21:05
2 Mary Beth Ellis USA 00:55:12 05:02:07 03:24:13 09:26:37
3 Mareen Hufe GER 01:01:42 05:10:33 03:18:06 09:35:26

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:12:40 Ronnie Schildknecht 2010-07-25
Swim overall 00:45:29 Benjamin Sanson 2005-07-15
Bike overall 04:27:42 Ronnie Schildknecht 2012-07-15
Run overall 02:41:58 Clemente Alonso McKernan 2011-07-10
Total female 09:00:04 Karin Thuerig 2010-07-25
Swim female 00:51:23 Celine Schaerer 2014-07-27
Bike female 04:43:53 Karin Thuerig 2010-07-25
Run female 03:00:27 Kristin Moeller 2014-07-27

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Switzerland is 05:14.

Race Adjustments for IM Switzerland

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 -03:50 00:25 02:46 -07:19 42 -03:50 00:25 02:46 -07:19
2006 15:11 01:11 04:45 -00:04 33 05:40 00:48 03:46 -03:41
2007 17:55 -01:00 10:22 01:14 35 09:45 00:12 05:58 -02:03
2008 09:14 -00:09 01:56 02:04 30 of 40 09:37 00:07 04:57 -01:01
2009 12:38 -00:46 07:20 05:08 37 10:14 -00:04 05:26 00:13
2010 07:40 -01:22 06:05 01:48 30 of 38 09:48 -00:17 05:32 00:29
2011 09:22 -02:29 01:22 06:20 20 09:44 -00:36 04:57 01:19
2012 06:43 -03:08 04:25 02:10 31 09:22 -00:55 04:53 01:25
2013 -09:48 -05:12 02:57 -05:29 38 07:14 -01:24 04:40 00:39
2014 00:04 -03:45 05:20 -00:22 28 of 36 06:31 -01:38 04:44 00:33
2015 -07:37 -02:51 00:59 -02:22 24 of 38 05:14 -01:44 04:23 00:17

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Switzerland is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:18:44 08:28:31 00:53:18 04:29:48 02:50:38 75% +1% -25% (27) 19
2 79 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 08:19:15 08:36:03 00:48:36 04:34:39 02:50:59 43% +11% -46% (14) (42)
3 73 Timo Bracht GER 08:21:27 08:23:48 00:50:57 04:32:41 02:52:48 83% +8% -8% (26) 10
4 70 Matt Trautman ZAF 08:24:43 08:25:19 00:52:14 04:34:33 02:52:55 80% +0% -20% (6) 11
5 2 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:29:06 08:48:01 00:49:29 04:32:06 03:02:31 49% +24% -27% (11) 80
6 8 Markus Fachbach GER 08:32:26 08:37:06 00:50:59 04:35:16 03:01:12 83% +0% -17% (17) 47
7 74 David Plese SLO 08:34:46 08:41:23 00:53:47 04:38:13 02:57:46 73% +5% -22% (16) 59
8 37 Andrej Vistica CRO 08:37:36 08:44:28 00:55:03 04:38:53 02:58:41 75% +0% -25% (10) 68
9 15 Fabio Carvalho BRA 08:38:19 09:16:16 00:49:02 04:47:47 02:56:29 2% +39% -59% (9) 193
10 78 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:38:34 08:47:41 00:48:55 04:36:38 03:08:01 32% +12% -55% (10) 78
11 11 Fraser Cartmell GBR 08:39:56 08:48:19 00:49:56 04:37:27 03:07:33 57% +14% -28% (9) 81
12 10 Bertrand Billard FRA 08:41:46 08:57:11 00:51:08 04:38:57 03:06:41 7% +35% -58% (8) 113
13 71 Ritchie Nicholls GBR 08:41:57 08:58:34 00:51:52 04:53:02 02:52:03 47% +0% -53% (4) (118)
14 32 Darby Thomas FIN 08:42:47 08:56:49 00:59:45 04:41:36 02:56:27 63% +10% -27% (7) 110
15 5 Mauro Baertsch SUI 08:43:09 08:58:46 00:54:28 04:44:36 02:59:04 45% +32% -23% (9) 119
16 31 Pascal Ramali GER 08:46:28 09:13:59 01:00:17 04:34:43 03:06:28 27% +0% -73% (3) (184)
17 34 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:47:41 08:53:05 00:49:14 04:45:53 03:07:33 26% +32% -42% (14) 98
18 9 Christian Brader GER 08:48:30 08:59:28 00:57:46 04:47:06 02:58:38 74% +5% -21% (33) 124
19 40 Manuel Kueng SUI 08:49:03 09:06:54 00:47:23 04:30:11 03:26:29 11% +89% -0% (3) (158)
20 18 Roman Deisenhofer GER 08:49:48 09:05:52 00:54:33 04:40:02 03:10:13 38% +62% -0% (4) 156
21 6 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:50:14 09:02:37 01:01:30 04:42:04 03:01:41 85% +11% -4% (55) 137
22 39 Balazs Csoke HUN 08:52:18 09:01:13 00:48:49 04:45:10 03:13:19 63% +8% -29% (23) 130
23 35 Patrick Jaberg SUI 08:53:30 09:04:38 00:54:52 04:45:22 03:08:16 96% +0% -4% (16) 150
24 36 David Naesvik SWE 08:54:07 09:02:15 00:56:42 04:41:21 03:11:04 77% +0% -23% (13) 135
25 14 Simon Billeau FRA 08:57:53 09:03:29 00:56:08 04:39:44 03:17:01 43% +0% -57% (17) 142
26 25 Tomas Mika CZE 08:59:05 09:08:17 00:56:36 04:56:24 03:01:06 84% +16% -0% (5) 161
27 28 Sebastian Pedraza ITA 09:01:55 09:11:35 00:54:49 04:44:15 03:17:51 56% +16% -28% (13) (171)
28 77 Marcel Bischof GER 09:02:00 09:15:43 00:58:14 04:50:07 03:08:40 83% +17% -0% (13) 190
29 76 Gergö Molnar HUN 09:07:31 09:18:13 00:51:24 04:51:13 03:19:54 42% +0% -58% (7) 197
30 22 Johan Kaerner SWE 09:11:02 09:27:37 01:00:48 04:49:37 03:15:38 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (221)
31 16 Nicholas Chase USA 09:25:31 09:42:32 00:53:46 04:57:40 03:29:05 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (257)
32 80 Ivan Jezko SVK 09:27:29 09:42:32 01:02:08 05:00:31 03:19:50 42% +23% -34% (11) 257
33 21 David Jilek CZE 09:27:51 09:39:13 00:59:45 04:57:49 03:25:17 64% +21% -15% (7) 252
34 17 Emanuele Ciotti ITA 09:28:47 09:43:21 00:53:44 05:03:14 03:26:48 33% +36% -31% (3) (260)
35 30 Lukas Polan CZE 09:40:58 09:56:55 01:04:19 05:05:31 03:26:08 30% +15% -55% (9) 277
36 72 Peter Kotland CZE 09:43:57 09:55:55 01:01:01 05:04:12 03:33:44 54% +26% -21% (21) 274
37 27 Gilian Oriet SUI 09:45:10 10:00:50 00:59:13 05:04:23 03:36:34 22% +10% -68% (10) 283
38 24 Martin Charles FRA 10:05:44 10:23:57 00:54:50 05:14:46 03:51:08 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (295)
39 38 Remmert Wielinga NED 10:07:37 10:52:28 01:14:31 05:00:25 03:47:41 7% +11% -82% (6) (303)
40 13 Santiago Abad de Agueda ESP 10:31:11 10:56:40 01:05:13 05:21:19 03:59:39 49% +0% -51% (2) (304)
41 23 David Krupicka CZE 10:46:09 10:59:26 01:06:33 05:20:26 04:14:10 100% +0% -0% (2) (304)
42 26 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:28:43 12:09:19 01:13:23 05:44:54 04:25:26 32% +25% -43% (35) 308
12 Philipp Koutny SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
19 Matthias Epping n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
20 Jan Hron n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
29 Cyril Pochon FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
33 Richard Westover GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
55 Lauren Capone USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
75 Petr Bednar CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 50 Daniela Ryf SUI 08:55:51 09:05:05 00:53:24 04:51:50 03:05:37 71% +0% -29% (6) 2
2 54 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 09:19:04 09:32:15 00:56:58 05:07:38 03:09:28 33% +31% -36% (5) 35
3 42 Celine Schaerer SUI 09:22:59 09:42:25 00:49:10 05:09:18 03:19:31 58% +0% -42% (4) (53)
4 49 Natascha Badmann SUI 09:28:44 09:39:17 01:03:04 04:59:57 03:20:42 42% +0% -58% (17) 48
5 62 Kristin Moeller GER 09:29:29 09:35:55 01:04:37 05:17:06 03:02:46 83% +15% -2% (17) 41
6 41 Emma Bilham SUI 09:31:01 09:48:12 00:56:03 05:12:25 03:17:33 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (64)
7 53 Ariane Monticeli BRA 09:33:38 09:44:05 01:03:20 05:17:43 03:07:34 55% +27% -18% (14) 59
8 59 Regula Rohrbach SUI 09:39:21 09:52:31 00:58:29 05:01:55 03:33:58 59% +13% -29% (11) 74
9 43 Carolin Lehrieder GER 09:41:12 09:57:37 00:56:42 05:19:43 03:19:47 30% +23% -46% (6) 87
10 56 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:52:00 09:59:37 00:55:32 05:25:09 03:26:19 65% +0% -35% (11) 91
11 52 Katharina Grohmann GER 09:53:54 10:03:46 01:13:12 05:17:23 03:18:19 100% +0% -0% (12) 97
12 51 Corina Hengartner SUI 09:59:04 10:12:55 01:04:17 05:16:07 03:33:40 56% +25% -19% (4) 116
13 60 Caroline Livesey GBR 09:59:37 10:07:05 01:03:06 05:19:24 03:32:07 68% +0% -32% (7) 102
14 44 Lina-Kristin Schink GER 10:00:41 10:19:21 01:12:19 05:20:07 03:23:16 70% +0% -30% (5) 129
15 46 Petra Krejcova CZE 10:02:28 10:14:57 01:04:03 05:33:01 03:20:23 100% +0% -0% (2) (118)
16 48 Mariana Andrade BRA 10:03:12 10:25:39 01:01:26 05:18:33 03:38:14 11% +38% -51% (12) 149
17 47 Alyssa Godesky USA 10:10:42 10:21:50 01:03:21 05:31:15 03:31:06 61% +20% -19% (11) 134
18 58 Nicole Woysch GER 10:18:15 10:54:33 01:00:29 05:24:54 03:47:53 22% +3% -75% (21) (169)
19 61 Jana Candrova CZE 10:18:51 10:36:13 01:07:49 05:26:20 03:39:41 68% +2% -30% (14) 163
45 Lauren Parker AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
57 Diane Luethi SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

KPR Situation

The following graphs show who is in a position to improve their KPR score to move beyond “the bubble” where qualifying comes down to everybody’s results on the last day of racing.

Male Participants

KPR_Zurich:Men

Female Participants

KPR_Zurich_Women

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on his good results at the end of 2014, Clemente is the slight statistical favorite, but he’s been struggling lately (including a DNF in Frankfurt). Ronnie Schildknecht has won this race eight times before but he faces strong competition by Timo, Jan and Matt, most of whom still need the Kona points that come with a good finish.

  • Clemente Alonso McKernan: 26% (3-1)
  • Timo Bracht: 18% (5-1)
  • Ronnie Schildknecht: 18% (5-1)
  • Jan Van Berkel: 8% (11-1)
  • Matt Trautman: 6% (15-1)

Female Race Participants

If Daniela decides to race (she’s scheduled to race Roth just a week before), she’ll be the clear favorite. If she’s not racing, the top spot will be wide open.

  • Daniela Ryf: 69% (1-1)
  • Michaela Herlbauer: 10% (9-1)
  • Natascha Badmann: 7% (14-1)
  • Kristin Moeller: 4% (23-1)
  • Celine Schaerer: 4% (26-1)
  • Ariane Monticeli: 4% (27-1)

Yvonne Van Vlerken: Roth is My #1 Race

Yvonne Van Vlerken has been a perennial contender in long distance triathlon for the last ten years: Since her debut at Challenge Roth (8:51:55 in 2007) she has won a total of eleven IM-distance races and raced four times in Kona, with a best result of second in 2008. Last season she qualified again for Kona, but she declined her slot after racing Roth in July and instead focused on the buildup for the 2016 season.

Taking Care of Business: Kona Qualifying

When Ironman announced a new Ironman in the Netherlands, they also announced two Dutch athletes that would race there in August: Bas Diederen and Yvonne Van Vlerken. Bas raced IM Germany five weeks before, then won IM Maastricht but struggled in Kona and DNF’d. Yvonne’s racing plan was even tighter: She raced Roth and Maastricht within four weeks, and after she went sub-9 in Roth, she had her slowest Ironman finish so far in Maastricht, still winning the race.

After Maastricht it was time for Yvonne to set up her 2016 summer. She had two major goals for this year’s season: To race her favorite long-distance race in Roth but also to prepare well for Kona without racing too much over the summer. In order to do that, she needed to secure a safe spot for Kona 2016 as early as possible. A big first step towards that was to race IM Barcelona in October. She had to work extremely hard for the win – a 3:02 run and an 8:46 finish gave her a margin of less than two minutes over Kaisa Lehtonen who was shoulder-to-shoulder with her for most of the run. (Kaisa went on to win this year’s IM South Africa.)

With the fall season coming to Europe, Yvonne and her parter Per Bittner had the chance to travel to Australia and race the southern hemisphere season. While not taking first place in the races she started, she finished third at IM Western Australia and had two second places in the 70.3s in Mandurah and Ballarat. While that still left some doubt, it pretty much made her safe for a Kona slot. As she planned some more prep races in Europe where she could also score a few more points, she was able to relax a bit and plan her build-up towards Challenge Roth with coach Siri Lindley.

YvonneWA
(Photo: Yvonne finishing third at IM Western Australia. Credit: witsup)

Chasing Records in Roth

With her 8:46 in Barcelona 2015, Yvonne managed to take the first of Chrissie Wellington’s many records: Yvonne is the first women to finish ten Ironman-distance races in under nine hours, surpassing Chrissie’s mark of nine sub-9 finishes. For this year’s Challenge Roth, Yvonne is again looking for a good race and a fast finish. Here are some potential goals she is looking at:

  1. Improve her personal best (currently 8:43:07 from Florida 2013) or her fastest time in Roth (8:45:48 from 2008 which was the world best time for a female at that point)
  2. Add to her list of sub-9 finishes (10 sub-9s so far)
  3. Become the woman with the most wins in Roth. She’s currently tied at three wins with Chrissie Wellington (2009-11) and Paula Newby-Fraser back from the times when Roth was “Ironman Europe” (1992, 1994-95). Jürgen Zack has the most Roth wins with five (1994-96 and 1998-99), Chris McCormack has four wins (2004-7).
  4. Try to take the record for the fastest finish by a pair of athletes in one race. Yvonne likes to call this “Pärchen-Rekord“, a play on her partner’s first name (Per, pronounced like the English “pair”) and the German word for pair (either “Paar” or the diminutive “Pärchen”). This is another record currently held by Chrissie with her partner Tom Lowe dating back to Arizona 2010 with 16:47:57 (8:11:44 + 8:36:13). Yvonne’s and Per’s best is currently just eight minutes slower at 16:55:22 (8:04:29 + 8:50:53) from Roth last year. My predictions for them have a combined total for them of 17:10:53, so both of them will need to have great races to attack that record!

While this would allow her to break some more of Chrissie’s records, she freely admits that Chrissie was on another level and that she could never be as fast. A humble statement from the athlete that has gone sub-9 more often than any other woman!

Yvonne_Per
(Photo: Yvonne and Per after racing in Ingolstadt in early June. Yvonne won the Middle Distance, Per was second in the Olympic Distance race. Credit: Ingo Kutsche)

Pros Battling Hypothermia in Non-wetsuit Swim at IM Frankfurt

This year’s IM Frankfurt produced a number of DNFs due to hypothermia when there was a non-wetsuit swim for the Pros because of high water temperatures. This post goes into some more detail on what happened, my best understanding of the current rules and some suggestions for avoiding more occurrences of this issue. I hope that this post can add some details to the discussion that needs to happen.

Temperatures at Langener Waldsee

In the days before Ironman Frankfurt there was a lot of speculation if the Pro swim would be without wetsuits. The cutoff temperature for the Pro race is 21.9°C (71.5°F). As the temperature was hovering around this mark, the final decision would be made on race day morning. I was out at the “Langener Waldsee” on Wednesday when the posted water temperature was 21.8°C. After a few nice warm days it was already at 22.1°C on Friday and on Saturday it had risen to 22.5°C. But Saturday was cloudy and had some rain, so it was a surprise that on Sunday morning the official temperature was announced as 22.6°C (even higher than Saturday) and the race was to start with a non-wetsuit swim.

Among local athletes who swim in the Langener Waldsee on a regular basis it is well known that there are warmer and colder spots in the lake and that temperatures can vary quite widely depending on where you measure. According to the rules the water temperature is to be taken “at the middle of the course and in two other areas on the swim course, at a depth of 60 cm. The lowest measured temperature will be considered as the official water temperature.”

According to ITU rules, the air temperature also plays a role. While I am not aware of any official measurements, air temperature was somewhere around 12°C before the race started and 14°C at the time that athletes started the bike.

There are some reports that the life guards at the Langener Waldsee measured a temperature of 21.5°C on Sunday. After a cold and rainy race day the temperature dropped pretty quickly, on Monday it was posted at 21.0°C and 20.3°C on Tuesday.

Pro Athletes in Trouble

After the decision to not allow the use of wetsuits for the Pros, a lot of Pro athletes were struggling in the swim. The most public case was Daniela Ryf who was leading the women’s race after the swim but couldn’t get warm and had to abandon the race after an hour on the bike because of hypothermia.

There were a lot more athletes that struggled with the cold and DNF’d on the bike. Some athletes even had to be rescued on the swim, close to becoming completely disoriented and loosing consciousness. At least two athletes were sent to the hospital when their low body temperatures raised serious concerns with the lifeguards.

WPro Bikes

(Photo: The lonely bikes of Kristin Möller and Diana Riesler in T1 after both had to be rescued during the swim.)

Brett Sutton has written about the issue as well and included a list of athletes that DNF’d because of the cold – making it clear that both men and women struggled in the water. An even larger number of athlete’s races were affected, here’s a short excerpt from Caroline Livesey’s race report (she went on to finish 12th in the female Pro race) about the end of her swim:

Determination kept me going but coming into T1 I knew I was in a bad way. I couldn’t really think straight so I just went onto auto pilot and transitioned onto the bike leg. I am pretty sure if anyone medically trained had stopped and checked me over I would have been delirious and probably have been pulled from the race. Apparently spectators were wondering out loud how on earth I was going to run a marathon when I could barely run in T1.

It is obvious from the number of athletes struggling that this is not a gender-specific issue and that the official water temperature was not an accurate reflection of conditions on race morning. Racing without a wetsuit should avoid overheating on the swim, but the dangers of hypothermia were clearly much bigger for the Pro athletes in Frankfurt.

Wetsuit Rules

Before offering some ideas on how to avoid a situation as in Frankfurt, it’s a good idea to review the rules as they stand.

The applicable rules for Ironman races state in Section 4.02 (Wetsuit Rules):

(a) For professional athletes, wetsuits may be worn in water temperatures up to and including 21.9 degrees C/71.5 degrees F;

The cutoff temperature was reduced from 76.1 degrees Fahrenheit (24.5 degrees C) in 2014 to align more closely with changes in the ITU rules. These are as follows (Section 4.2 Wetsuit Use):

ITU Wetsuit

In addition the ITU rules have a section (Section 4.3 Modifications) on shortening or cancelling the swim in certain conditions:

ITUShortening

Air temperatures also play a role on how big the danger of hypothermia is – in cold temperatures athletes will be shivering in the final minutes before the race start, and it becomes much harder to dry and get warm once on the bike. Therefore Section 4.3 also contains a table that shows how to decrease the measured water temperature to account for low air temperatures:

ITUAdjustTemperature

However, this table only applies for water temperatures below 22°C and – at least the way I understand the wording of the rules – is only to be used in determining to shorten or cancel the swim, but not for the decision to allow a wetsuit or not.

In order to to deal with special conditions not covered by the previous rules there is a catch-all rule (also in Section 4.3) that gives extra powers to the referees:

b.) If other weather conditions dictate, i.e., high winds, heavy rain, changing temperature, current, etc. the Technical and Medical Delegates may adapt limits of the swim length or adopt provisions about the use of wetsuit.

However,  I’m not aware of a similar provision in the Ironman rules and it was not invoked on race morning of IM Frankfurt.

To sum up, if the measured water temperature of 22.6°C is deemed correct, then the current rules directly imply a non-wetsuit swim.

Suggestions

If the current rules in place put athletes in danger as has happened in Frankfurt, obviously they need to be changed to avoid similar occurrences.

Rethink the Cutoff Temperature for IM Racing

Ironman has much bigger experience in organizing long-distance triathlons than the ITU that is primarily concerned with racing on the Olympic Distance. The ITU rules make a distinction between Olympic Distance swims (1.5k) and those longer, but of course there is a large difference between racing a 70.3 swim (1.9k) and an Ironman swim (3.8k), and the use of wetsuits in Professional long-distance races seems to be an issue that both organizations should discuss and maybe adjust their rulebooks.

Uniformly Adjust the Water Temperature

Rather than simply adjusting the cutoff temperature as discussed in the previous section, my suggestion is to extend the water temperature adjustment procedures and base all decisions off that modified temperature. In order to be used for these cases the table needs to be extended for warmer water temperatures, at least up to 25°C or even higher to make the table applicable for agegroup racing as well. (To my engineering mind, there’s also no clear description on which row/column to use, for example does a temperature of 22.6°C correspond to the row of 22°C or should it be rounded up and then correspond to the 23°C row.) This would still not address situations with large differences between warm water and cold air temperatures (for example 25°C water and 8°C air temperature), so Ironman rules should allow referees to make a call on race day.

If we assume that this modified temperature rule was in place and there was an air temperature of 15°C (it probably was even lower an hour before the start), then the adjusted temperature would be 21°C, clearly under the Pro cutoff temperature. If this adjusted temperature had been used in making the decision about allowing wetsuits, IM Frankfurt would have been a wetsuit race and most of the issues we saw could have been avoided.

Discuss with the ITU, Federations and Ironman

Of course change is not going to happen on its own, so Pro athletes, coaches etc. have to make  the ITU, their local federations and Ironman aware of this issue and encourage them to better address it in the rules. While I have suggested a possible solution above, there may be other (and better) ways of updating the rules. An open discussion about the changes would surely be appreciated by many athletes, especially those that barely escaped without lasting damage from racing an Ironman.

Challenge Roth 2016 (July 17th) – Predictions

ChallengeRothLogoUpdate July 11th: Daniela Ryf is a thrilling late addition to the women’s field. With her in the race I have recalculated my odds as well.

Update July 9th: Unfortunately, Meredith Kessler has to take care of an injury that was slowing her down in this season and won’t be racing Roth. Get better soon, MBK! I’ve also crossed out Susie Cheetham who announced a while ago that she won’t be able to race.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Chris McCormack (AUS) 07:58:45 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:14:06
2006 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:00:52 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:01:17
2007 Chris McCormack (AUS) 07:54:23 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 08:51:55
2008 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:09:34 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 08:45:48
2009 Michael Goehner (GER) 07:55:53 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:31:59
2010 Rasmus Henning (DEN) 07:52:36 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:19:13
2011 Andreas Raelert (GER) 07:41:33 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:18:13
2012 James Cunnama (ZAF) 07:59:59 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:45:04
2013 Dirk Bockel (LUX) 07:52:01 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 08:40:35
2014 Timo Bracht (GER) 07:56:00 Mirinda Carfrae (AUS) 08:38:53
2015 Nils Frommhold (GER) 07:51:28 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 08:50:53

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Nils Frommhold GER 00:47:33 04:09:30 02:51:47 07:51:28
2 Timo Bracht GER 00:47:37 04:20:42 02:45:33 07:56:31
3 David Dellow AUS 00:47:35 04:20:24 02:48:12 07:59:28

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 00:54:46 04:47:34 03:05:43 08:50:53
2 Carrie Lester AUS 00:52:09 04:47:43 03:09:50 08:53:09
3 Anja Beranek GER 00:49:20 04:47:58 03:14:55 08:55:19

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:41:33 Andreas Raelert 2011-07-10
Swim overall 00:45:57 Pete Jacobs 2009-07-12
Bike overall 04:09:13 Andrew Starykowicz 2015-07-12
Run overall 02:39:43 Rasmus Henning 2010-07-18
Total female 08:18:13 Chrissie Wellington 2011-07-10
Swim female 00:47:27 Ute Mueckel 2005-06-24
Bike female 04:36:33 Chrissie Wellington 2010-07-18
Run female 02:44:35 Chrissie Wellington 2011-07-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Roth is 18:49.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Roth

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 18:02 01:08 13:32 05:29 28 18:02 01:08 13:32 05:29
2006 12:19 01:18 06:23 03:08 41 15:10 01:13 09:57 04:18
2007 23:37 00:54 10:36 07:18 35 17:59 01:07 10:10 05:18
2008 21:38 01:58 06:55 08:02 40 18:54 01:20 09:21 05:59
2009 26:32 02:06 15:53 05:03 43 20:26 01:29 10:40 05:48
2010 18:19 00:29 06:54 05:38 43 20:05 01:19 10:02 05:46
2011 20:53 01:52 15:28 05:42 38 20:11 01:24 10:49 05:46
2012 14:26 02:25 05:11 04:43 50 19:28 01:31 10:06 05:38
2013 21:21 00:30 13:41 04:53 41 19:41 01:25 10:30 05:33
2014 10:21 -00:06 13:01 -01:13 37 18:45 01:15 10:45 04:52
2015 19:36 01:18 11:56 04:15 44 of 56 18:49 01:16 10:52 04:49

Male Race Participants

Roth does not have a “Pro” Category per se, so I may have missed some of the Professional athletes racing.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 2 Jan Frodeno GER 07:55:26 08:11:20 00:45:24 04:20:13 02:44:48 80% +20% -0% (5) 1
2 1 Nils Frommhold GER 07:55:57 08:20:44 00:46:41 04:13:31 02:50:45 78% +0% -22% (7) 6
3 3 Tyler Butterfield BMU 08:13:32 08:35:20 00:47:26 04:26:41 02:54:24 46% +24% -30% (11) 40
4 7 Joe Skipper GBR 08:15:15 08:33:35 00:52:53 04:26:14 02:51:08 51% +27% -22% (11) 32
5 5 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:16:01 08:34:12 00:48:59 04:28:27 02:53:35 63% +24% -13% (15) 35
6 4 Per Bittner GER 08:16:09 08:42:19 00:47:41 04:27:20 02:56:07 52% +17% -31% (17) 64
7 6 Jan Raphael GER 08:24:21 08:38:32 00:47:23 04:34:25 02:57:32 91% +0% -9% (22) 53
8 8 Martin Jensen DEN 08:27:20 08:39:21 00:49:09 04:35:35 02:57:36 100% +0% -0% (3) (55)
9 9 Thomas Hellriegel GER 08:31:59 09:09:16 00:49:57 04:24:12 03:12:50 22% +8% -69% (6) (164)
10 10 Andreas Linden SWE 08:33:07 09:07:45 00:57:28 04:20:24 03:10:15 49% +0% -51% (2) (159)
11 21 Bernd Hagen GER 08:35:53 09:06:41 00:54:32 04:41:03 02:55:19 99% +1% -0% (13) (158)
12 14 Marcel Bischof GER 08:44:43 09:15:43 00:54:53 04:42:06 03:02:44 83% +17% -0% (13) 190
13 18 Xavier Diepart BEL 08:49:56 09:11:54 00:55:15 04:47:56 03:01:45 80% +14% -6% (8) (175)
14 24 Tjardo Visser NED 08:56:00 09:26:32 00:50:45 04:58:47 03:01:28 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (216)
15 16 Luke Dragstra CAN 08:59:05 09:27:35 00:52:01 04:47:49 03:14:15 14% +2% -84% (22) 220
16 23 Thomas Naasz NED 08:59:45 09:27:06 00:54:33 04:49:27 03:10:46 100% +0% -0% (5) 217
17 27 Ivan Jezko SVK 09:13:03 09:42:32 00:58:53 04:54:00 03:15:11 42% +23% -34% (11) 257
18 12 Christian Jais GER 09:20:36 09:55:28 00:54:55 04:48:38 03:32:03 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (274)
19 26 Jeremy Howard USA 09:43:52 10:14:55 00:51:24 05:14:35 03:32:53 48% +0% -52% (2) (291)
20 25 Rob Bobbaers BEL 09:44:50 10:18:08 00:59:17 04:55:46 03:44:47 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (292)
21 28 Henry Beck GER 09:57:56 10:35:08 00:47:42 04:49:21 04:15:53 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (297)
11 Robert Duncan USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
13 Tobias Heining GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
15 Daniel Mugica Corrales ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
17 Nick Kastelein AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
19 Lukas Storath GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
20 Jurgen Van Oevelen BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
22 Fabian Rahn GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 08:42:19 09:05:05 00:50:40 04:45:17 03:01:21 71% +0% -29% (6) 2
1 51 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 08:54:44 09:17:16 00:56:01 04:47:34 03:06:09 84% +0% -16% (23) 10
2 55 Meredith Kessler USA 08:56:01 09:17:50 00:48:23 04:54:13 03:08:25 65% +14% -20% (23) 12
3 53 Anja Beranek GER 08:59:25 09:19:16 00:49:40 04:48:56 03:15:49 83% +6% -11% (7) 15
4 52 Carrie Lester AUS 09:01:22 09:29:35 00:52:27 04:54:55 03:09:00 58% +24% -17% (18) 26
5 57 Susie Cheetham GBR 09:01:26 09:16:19 00:53:32 05:02:41 03:00:13 100% +0% -0% (4) 8
6 56 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:02:23 09:22:59 00:50:26 04:55:30 03:11:27 71% +4% -25% (17) 18
7 54 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:03:29 09:17:57 00:49:53 04:53:27 03:15:08 93% +0% -7% (17) 13
8 61 Laura Siddall GBR 09:12:12 09:43:20 00:56:05 04:54:19 03:16:47 41% +44% -15% (6) 55
9 60 Erika Csomor HUN 09:13:02 09:33:50 00:57:35 05:00:43 03:09:45 81% +0% -19% (33) 39
10 58 Mirjam Weerd NED 09:15:08 09:39:58 00:51:54 04:59:22 03:18:52 85% +5% -10% (12) 49
11 67 Jessica Fleming AUS 09:32:01 09:53:57 00:59:04 05:03:27 03:24:30 88% +0% -12% (7) 81
12 69 Kathryn Haesner NZL 09:35:09 10:24:49 00:55:41 05:15:59 03:18:30 41% +59% -0% (2) (148)
13 63 Monique Grossrieder SUI 09:40:31 10:08:08 01:02:54 05:14:59 03:17:38 45% +23% -32% (6) (106)
14 68 Carla Van Rooijen NED 09:50:56 10:17:21 01:11:04 05:15:07 03:19:45 78% +22% -0% (6) 122
15 62 Caroline Gregory USA 09:51:50 10:20:21 00:54:32 05:28:50 03:23:28 59% +9% -32% (12) 131
16 64 Michelle Duffield AUS 09:55:28 10:20:34 01:00:08 05:21:03 03:29:17 77% +0% -23% (6) 132
17 74 Line Foss NOR 10:08:56 11:09:05 01:22:33 05:05:22 03:36:01 23% +24% -53% (4) (173)
18 66 Fabiola Corona MEX 10:13:29 10:48:25 00:57:27 05:30:23 03:40:39 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (169)
59 Rachel McBride CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
65 Franzi Bossow GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
70 Jenny Latham GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
71 Tereza Durdiakova CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
72 Carole Fuchs THA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
73 Jenny Fletcher CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
75 Daniela Zoll GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Kona Champion Jan Frodeno is the clear favorite for this race – he’d love to get close or even beat Andreas Reeler’s 7:41 from 2011. But based on the “raw numbers” last year’s winner Nils Frommhold could get close and will be there if “Frodo” shows any sign of weakness.

  • Jan Frodeno: 38% (2-1)
  • Nils Frommhold: 27% (3-1)
  • Tyler Butterfield: 10% (9-1)
  • Joe Skipper: 10% (9-1)
  • Cyril Viennot: 8% (11-1)

Female Race Participants

Yvonne Van Vlerken is already the female with the most sub-9 finishes – she has ten, ahead of Chrissie Wellington’s nine. She has won in Roth three times (same number as Chrissie) and would like to move ahead in this statistic as well.

  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 36% (2-1)
  • Meredith Kessler: 25% (3-1)
  • Carrie Lester: 16% (5-1)
  • Michelle Vesterby: 12% (7-1)
  • Anja Beranek: 7% (12-1)

Here are the odds after Daniela Ryf has been added to the field:

  • Daniela Ryf: 60% (1-1)
  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 14% (6-1)
  • Carrie Lester: 10% (9-1)
  • Michelle Vesterby: 10% (9-1)
  • Anja Beranek: 6% (17-1)

Ironman UK 2016 (July 17th) – Predictions

Update July 10th: Congratulations to Brad Williams on the birth of his first child. Of course that takes precedence over racing.

IMUK LogoPrevious Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2009 Philip Graves (GBR) 08:45:52 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:34:00
2010 Fraser Cartmell (GBR) 08:40:18 Yvette Grice (GBR) 10:01:03
2011 Aaron Farlow (AUS) 08:24:34 Kristin Moeller (GER) 09:19:04
2012 Daniel Halksworth (GBR) 08:55:11 Eimear Mullan (IRL) 10:08:44
2013 Daniel Halksworth (GBR) 08:45:48 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 09:29:12
2014 Cyril Viennot (FRA) 08:44:10 Tamsin Lewis (GBR) 09:52:12
2015 David McNamee (GBR) 08:46:37 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 09:31:58

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 David McNamee GBR 00:48:01 05:02:34 02:51:48 08:46:37
2 Fraser Cartmell GBR 00:48:28 04:58:39 02:59:52 08:51:06
3 Joe Skipper GBR 00:56:06 04:58:30 02:55:44 08:55:38

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Lucy Gossage GBR 00:59:11 05:22:56 03:03:43 09:31:58
2 Caroline Livesey GBR 01:01:03 05:36:36 03:21:07 10:05:21
3 Alice Hector GBR 00:56:49 05:59:01 03:16:06 10:18:46

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:24:34 Aaron Farlow 2011-07-31
Swim overall 00:43:35 Fraser Cartmell 2010-08-01
Bike overall 04:50:48 Cyril Viennot 2014-07-20
Run overall 02:41:46 Aaron Farlow 2011-07-31
Total female 09:19:04 Kristin Moeller 2011-07-31
Swim female 00:48:19 Amanda Stevens 2012-07-22
Bike female 05:22:13 Lucy Gossage 2013-08-04
Run female 02:41:57 Kristin Moeller 2011-07-31

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM UK is – 03:43.

Race Adjustments for IM UK

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2009 02:29 -03:02 -10:14 10:31 20 02:29 -03:02 -10:14 10:31
2010 01:11 04:35 -23:58 09:10 14 01:50 00:46 -17:06 09:50
2011 08:38 04:47 -14:27 22:54 16 04:06 02:07 -16:13 14:12
2012 -06:47 00:02 -09:59 02:04 11 01:23 01:35 -14:40 11:10
2013 -05:23 04:05 -12:08 02:59 15 00:02 02:05 -14:09 09:32
2014 -09:47 01:11 -14:57 01:20 16 of 21 -01:36 01:56 -14:17 08:10
2015 -16:19 -01:11 -20:05 00:55 20 of 24 -03:43 01:29 -15:07 07:08

KPR points and Prize Money

IM UK is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Female Race Participants

Similar to IM Frankfurt, the defending women’s champion has the honor of racing with bib #1.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Lucy Gossage GBR 09:20:22 09:17:37 00:56:19 05:17:58 03:01:05 92% +0% -8% (12) 11
2 2 Tine Deckers BEL 09:34:52 09:28:30 00:56:56 05:20:32 03:12:25 58% +9% -33% (18) 24
3 3 Kristin Moeller GER 09:39:11 09:35:55 01:00:50 05:37:14 02:56:08 83% +15% -2% (17) 41
4 6 Katja Konschak GER 09:43:56 09:53:47 00:51:40 05:42:03 03:05:13 39% +43% -18% (16) 80
5 4 Lucy Charles GBR 09:53:49 10:01:38 00:45:46 05:41:16 03:21:48 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (95)
6 7 Kate Comber GBR 10:04:23 10:06:14 00:52:15 05:45:10 03:21:58 100% +0% -0% (2) (102)
7 8 Vicky Gill GBR 10:06:30 10:25:04 01:02:37 05:39:39 03:19:14 10% +46% -44% (3) (148)
8 5 Alyssa Godesky USA 10:20:55 10:21:50 00:59:40 05:53:01 03:23:14 61% +20% -19% (11) 134

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 35 Fraser Cartmell GBR 08:42:07 08:48:19 00:46:27 04:53:22 02:57:18 57% +14% -28% (9) 81
2 21 Michael Raelert GER 08:42:21 08:47:46 00:46:15 04:57:51 02:53:15 11% +20% -69% (4) (79)
3 24 Romain Guillaume FRA 08:43:56 08:44:11 00:47:10 04:52:21 02:59:25 61% +20% -19% (27) 67
4 27 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 08:44:28 08:49:21 00:51:51 04:53:30 02:54:06 61% +19% -20% (11) 87
5 25 Andrej Vistica CRO 08:46:15 08:44:28 00:51:52 04:57:19 02:52:04 75% +0% -25% (10) 68
6 26 Fabio Carvalho BRA 08:46:59 09:16:16 00:46:07 05:06:13 02:49:38 2% +39% -59% (9) 193
7 29 Ritchie Nicholls GBR 08:50:40 08:58:34 00:48:45 05:11:39 02:45:17 47% +0% -53% (4) (118)
8 31 Denis Sketako SLO 08:52:07 08:58:52 00:52:25 04:57:36 02:57:06 51% +49% -0% (3) 120
9 23 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:53:51 08:53:05 00:46:08 05:03:06 02:59:37 26% +32% -42% (14) 98
10 22 Markus Thomschke GER 08:54:01 08:57:39 00:51:34 04:55:11 03:02:17 62% +12% -26% (15) 116
11 34 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 08:59:36 09:03:01 00:49:24 04:55:21 03:09:50 35% +31% -34% (9) 139
12 36 Patrick Evoe USA 09:03:37 08:57:10 00:54:26 05:01:06 03:03:05 87% +4% -9% (22) 112
13 28 Nick Baldwin SEY 09:04:46 09:02:31 00:51:36 05:03:45 03:04:25 60% +0% -40% (16) 136
14 33 Simon Billeau FRA 09:06:53 09:03:29 00:53:00 04:58:47 03:10:06 43% +0% -57% (17) 142
15 38 Graeme Stewart GBR 09:09:45 09:10:34 00:52:39 05:11:52 03:00:13 53% +9% -38% (12) 168
16 32 Oliver Simon GBR 09:21:18 09:38:53 00:47:42 05:10:09 03:18:26 55% +0% -45% (12) 251
17 30 Brad Williams USA 09:27:25 09:46:13 00:54:46 05:13:26 03:14:13 76% +0% -24% (4) 264
18 37 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:32:29 09:38:41 00:56:09 05:09:13 03:22:06 73% +25% -1% (14) 250
19 39 Peter Kern GER 09:38:13 10:02:53 00:54:28 05:15:53 03:22:52 16% +0% -84% (7) (284)
40 Chris Whitcombe GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

KPR Situation

Female Race Participants

On the women’s side defending champion and race favorite Lucy Gossage is already safe for Kona. I also consider Katja Konschak safe at 4.860 points after finishing second at IM Germany, but she said she wants to be absolutely certain of qualifying and wants to control things herself. Among the others, the following athletes still have a chance for a July slot

  • Tine Deckers (3840), needs a 3rd place
  • Kristin Moeller (3145), needs a 2nd place

Male Race Participants

There are quite a large number of athletes that are still looking to secure a July slot, here’s the result they roughly need:

  • 6th: Michael Raelert
  • 4th: Markus Thomschke
  • 3rd: Harry Wiltshire, Romain Guillaume
  • 2nd: Andrej Vistica, Fabio Carvalho, Kirill Kotshegarov

Winning Odds

Female Race Participants

  • Lucy Gossage: 65% (1-1)
  • Tine Deckers: 16% (5-1)
  • Kristin Moeller: 9% (10-1)
  • Katja Konschak: 9% (10-1)

Male Race Participants

  • Fraser Cartmell: 26% (3-1)
  • Kirill Kotshegarov: 19% (4-1)
  • Romain Guillaume: 17% (5-1)
  • Michael Raelert: 12% (7-1)
  • Andrej Vistica: 10% (9-1)
  • Harry Wiltshire: 6% (15-1)
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