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Unofficial KPR & 2016 Pro Kona Slot Allocation for July Cutoff

2016 Kona Rating Report Title Thumb

Here is my calculation of the KPR at the end of July, deciding 40 male and 28 female slots (in addition to the Automatic Qualifiers). My results are unofficial, the official results will be posted on the Ironman website at http://eu.ironman.com/triathlon/triathlon-rankings/points-system.aspx (but as far as I can tell shows the same data). I do not count AQs and athletes that haven’t validated my rankings, therefore it is a bit easier to determine the Top 40 male and Top 28 females. I will update this post with new information regarding declined slots and rolldown. For now, the athletes with a rank in brackets (e.g. “(42)”) are outside of the July slots. I will update this post with information about slot declines and rolldowns.

There is another cutoff in August, adding another 10 male and 7 female slots. Once the field has been completed, I will work on this year’s version of the Kona Rating Report, looking at the field and each athlete’s chances for a good result. The free report will be released in time before the Kona race, you can already pre-order your copy.

Update July 28th: The first rolldown has happened: Carrie Lester is now marked as a qualifier as well. It’s unclear who has declined her slot, I have marked the female qualifiers without a “Q” on the Ironman site with a question mark. (So even though Carrie is still ranked 29th in my table, she did get a slot.)   So far there is no indication for a rolldown on the men’s side.

Update July 29th: It is now clear that the slot that rolled down to Carrie was declined by Michelle Bremer. I’ve added a “D” to her name and adjusted the other ranks accordingly.

Update August 2nd: All male slots have been sorted. One slot rolled down to Jens Petersen-Bach, as far as I can tell Matt  Trautmann had to decline his slot. All other slots have been accepted.

Update August 3rd: One more slot rolled on the female side, Emma Balham declined and Jodie Robertson accepted the roll-down slot. All July slots on the female side are finalized as well.

Update August 3rd: Just when everything seemed clear, Beth Gerdes declined her slot (details on her blog), and another slot rolled down to Dimity-Lee Duke.

Male KPR Rankings

 

Rank Name Points Races
AQ Frodeno, Jan 13350 2+2
AQ Kienle, Sebastian 12440 2+3 (3825/640)
AQ McMahon, Brent 10615 3+2 (1600/785)
1 Potts, Andy 9520 2+3 (2000/435)
AQ Van Berkel, Tim 8985 2+3 (3400/400)
2 Llanos, Eneko 8525 3+2 (290/345)
3 Sanders, Lionel 7370 2+3 (1620/750)
4 O’Donnell, Timothy 7325 2+2
5 Don, Tim 7025 2+2
6 Boecherer, Andi 6870 2+3 (450/500)
7 Butterfield, Tyler 6855 2+1
8 Russell, Matthew 6650 3+2 (720/180)
9 Stein, Boris 6440 2+2
10 Viennot, Cyril 6170 2+2
11 Dellow, David 5975 3+1 (960/0)
AQ Hoffman, Ben 5605 2+3 (340/280)
12 Albert, Marko 5550 3+1 (120/0)
13 Cunnama, James 5225 2+3 (1600/400)
14 Aernouts, Bart 5045 1+3 (720/640)
15 Collington, Kevin 5035 2+3 (405/320)
16 Bozzone, Terenzo 4945 2+3 (540/435)
AQ Lange, Patrick 4845 1+3 (4000/125)
17 McKenzie, Luke 4675 2+3 (1670/45)
18 Thomschke, Markus 4605 2+3 (1280/345)
19 Bracht, Timo 4595 3+2 (540/135)
20 McNamee, David 4590 2+2
21 Schmid, Stefan 4560 3+0 (1280/0)
22 Thomas, Jesse 4545 2+2
23 Reed, Tim 4475 1+3 (2000/640)
D Trautman, Matt 4470 1+3 (2455/515)
24 Degasperi, Alessandro 4460 3+2 (1280/220)
25 Wild, Ruedi 4435 1+3 (1670/500)
26 Gomes, Pedro 4397 3+1 (705/0)
27 Schildknecht, Ronnie 4190 3+0 (855/0)
28 Weiss, Michael 4095 3+2 (960/320)
29 Kotshegarov, Kirill 4068 3+1 (60/0)
30 Plese, David 4045 3+2 (305/100)
31 Baertsch, Mauro 4025 3+2 (540/180)
32 Skipper, Joe 3935 2+1
33 Kramer, Christian 3780 3+2 (540/100)
34 Vistica, Andrej 3770 3+2 (720/30)
35 Rana, Ivan 3745 2+1
36 Van Berkel, Jan 3735 3+2 (235/240)
37 Chevrot, Denis 3735 2+2
38 Wurtele, Trevor 3725 2+3 (540/625)
39 Bittner, Per 3620 2+3 (1280/75)
40 Petersen-Bach, Jens 3610 3+1 (685/0)
(41) Millward, Callum 3580 2+3 (685/435)
(42) Wiltshire, Harry 3495 3+2 (720/135)
(43) Billard, Bertrand 3490 2+2
AQ Jacobs, Pete 3055 1+2
AQ Van Lierde, Frederik 2335 2+3 (340/135)

Female KPR Rankings

Rank Name Points Races
AQ Ryf, Daniela 15250 2+3 (2000/750)
1 Cheetham, Susie 10140 2+3 (3400/180)
2 Jackson, Heather 8790 1+3 (2000/500)
3 Gossage, Lucy 8740 3+1 (2000/0)
4 Piampiano, Sarah 7825 2+3 (2000/435)
AQ Gajer, Julia 7450 2+2
5 Frades Larralde, Gurutze 7070 3+2 (1600/180)
6 Pedersen, Camilla 6730 2+3 (1280/345)
7 Roberts, Lisa 6715 2+3 (1600/30)
8 Vesterby, Michelle 6605 2+1
9? Luxford, Annabel 6580 2+3 (2090/750)
10 Lundstroem, Asa 6575 2+2
11 Kessler, Meredith 6475 2+3 (2000/640)
AQ Lyles, Elizabeth 6465 2+3 (1620/180)
12 Beranek, Anja 6455 1+3 (2000/750)
AQ Swallow, Jodie 6420 1+3 (4000/750)
13 Konschak, Katja 6140 3+1 (1280/0)
AQ Lehtonen, Kaisa 6140 2+1
14 Kaye, Alicia 6055 2+3 (1280/280)
15 Wurtele, Heather 5910 1+3 (960/750)
16 Hufe, Mareen 5750 3+2 (405/125)
17 Corbin, Linsey 5590 1+3 (3400/320)
18 Crowley, Sarah 5535 2+3 (960/435)
19 Deckers, Tine 5440 2+3 (1600/500)
D Bilham, Emma 5355 2+3 (1600/240)
20 Saemmler, Daniela 5290 2+1
D Bremer, Michelle 5285 3+2 (540/345)
21 Van Vlerken, Yvonne 5200 2+3 (1280/640)
22 Holst, Tine 5185 3+1 (960/0)
AQ Hauschildt, Melissa 4750 1+1
23 Monticeli, Ariane 4715 2+3 (720/500)
24 Walter, Verena 4600 3+1 (405/0)
25 Tondeur, Alexandra 4530 2+3 (1280/435)
D Gerdes, Beth 4490 2+3 (1375/280)
26 Lester, Carrie 4420 2+2
27 Robertson, Jodie 4305 1+3 (3400/240)
28 Duke, Dimity-Lee 4215 3+2 (960/320)
(29) Steurer, Bianca 4090 3+2 (855/400)
AQ Cave, Leanda 3520 2+1
AQ Carfrae, Mirinda 3260 1+3 (2000/320)

Ironman Vineman 2016 (July 31st) – Predictions

IMVineman

This is the first time this race is organized by the Ironman brand. There was a Pro category in prior years, but results are hard to find and I haven’t included them in my analysis. All time predictions are based on a “neutral” course.

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Vineman is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 3 Richie Cunningham AUS 08:35:04 08:47:12 00:49:19 04:38:40 03:02:05 50% +0% -50% (3) (78)
2 4 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:40:53 08:39:09 00:49:13 04:41:38 03:05:01 68% +0% -32% (9) 53
3 7 Pedro Gomes POR 08:42:27 08:40:43 00:52:07 04:47:56 02:57:24 65% +5% -30% (22) 57
4 5 Barrett Brandon USA 08:45:00 08:45:09 00:47:50 04:50:57 03:01:13 60% +0% -40% (5) 69
5 2 Chris McDonald AUS 08:49:54 08:46:30 00:53:33 04:46:41 03:04:40 62% +8% -30% (41) 76
6 17 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:50:54 08:55:08 00:53:37 04:44:15 03:08:02 57% +12% -31% (13) 102
7 6 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:53:14 09:01:16 00:54:07 04:44:00 03:10:06 39% +11% -51% (21) 131
8 8 Guy Crawford NZL 09:06:36 09:14:38 00:49:02 04:44:46 03:27:48 27% +37% -36% (12) 183
9 19 Jesse Vondracek USA 09:16:48 09:27:55 00:55:22 05:02:51 03:13:35 66% +24% -11% (16) 219
10 13 Colin Laughery USA 09:19:07 09:24:45 01:00:01 05:00:51 03:13:15 100% +0% -0% (2) (209)
11 14 James Lubinski USA 09:23:03 09:31:31 01:02:16 05:03:31 03:12:16 44% +25% -31% (16) 231
12 15 Douglas MacLean USA 09:23:20 09:25:51 00:58:04 05:08:26 03:11:50 83% +5% -12% (13) 210
13 12 Andrew Langfield USA 09:44:27 09:56:12 00:57:41 05:21:00 03:20:46 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (269)
14 18 Jorge Vazquez MEX 10:05:15 10:17:24 00:53:52 05:14:51 03:51:32 42% +0% -58% (3) (287)
15 16 Sergio Quezada MEX 10:07:42 10:11:28 00:52:36 05:16:40 03:53:26 69% +10% -22% (12) 283
1 Max Biessmann USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
9 Ivan Dominguez USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
10 Rafael Goncalves BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
11 Nicholas Granet FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 27 Heather Jackson USA 09:22:49 09:24:12 00:58:52 05:08:02 03:10:56 19% +56% -25% (4) 20
2 26 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:23:06 09:17:57 00:51:16 05:05:52 03:20:59 93% +0% -7% (17) 13
3 25 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:28:31 09:32:17 01:02:46 05:10:08 03:10:37 41% +47% -12% (14) 36
4 29 Amanda Stevens USA 09:30:01 09:30:05 00:51:32 05:15:40 03:17:50 60% +21% -19% (17) 28
5 30 Ariane Monticeli BRA 09:41:54 09:44:05 01:01:58 05:25:27 03:09:30 55% +27% -18% (14) 59
6 41 Darbi Roberts USA 09:44:37 09:58:31 00:52:49 05:21:32 03:25:15 37% +0% -63% (5) 89
7 37 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:46:40 09:49:32 00:58:36 05:20:08 03:22:56 69% +0% -31% (11) 64
8 28 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:57:22 10:05:04 00:55:58 05:24:55 03:31:30 26% +7% -67% (26) 99
9 39 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 09:58:28 10:00:27 00:59:15 05:32:23 03:21:50 100% +0% -0% (3) 93
10 38 Jocelyn McCauley USA 10:04:46 10:23:05 00:59:27 05:30:31 03:29:49 41% +0% -59% (4) (137)
11 34 Caroline Gregory USA 10:13:13 10:25:09 00:56:01 05:42:40 03:29:32 48% +7% -45% (13) 148
12 42 Jessica Smith USA 10:16:09 10:25:18 00:55:38 05:31:06 03:44:25 38% +0% -62% (6) (149)
13 36 Cathleen Knutson USA 10:48:37 10:56:26 01:07:07 05:48:16 03:48:14 55% +0% -45% (3) (168)
14 32 Terry Casey USA 10:59:05 11:12:19 00:58:47 05:36:07 04:19:11 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (170)
15 31 Katy Cargiulo USA 11:01:40 11:08:17 01:01:34 06:10:47 03:44:19 100% +0% -0% (2) (170)
33 Kendra Goffredo USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
35 Monica Juhart AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
40 Ashley Paulson USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
43 Kyra Wiens USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Richie Cunningham: 49% (1-1)
  • Kyle Buckingham: 17% (5-1)
  • Pedro Gomes: 16% (5-1)
  • Chris McDonald: 7% (14-1)
  • Thomas Gerlach: 5% (21-1)
  • Jonathan Shearon: 4% (27-1)
  • Barrett Brandon: 3% (31-1)

Female Race Participants

There are a number of women on the start list that are unlikely to race. Heather Jackson is probably on the Vineman list as a back up in case her validation race in Lake Placid the week before had runs into problem (she won and has a July slot). In a similar vein Ariane Monticelli managed to get a slot at IM Zürich and I can’t see a compelling reason for her to race Vineman. Mary Beth Ellis is also registered for IM Maastricht on the same weekend and has indicated that she’ll race there. (Update: MBE is no longer on the start list.) Amanda Stevens has been injured and is unlikely to race. This would leave Sarah Piampiano as the clear favorite to win the race:

  • Mary Beth Ellis: 34% (2-1)
  • Heather Jackson: 31% (2-1)
  • Sarah Piampiano: 19% (4-1)
  • Amanda Stevens: 12% (7-1)
  • Ariane Monticeli: 3% (30-1)

Ironman Netherlands 2016 (July 31st) – Predictions

IMMaastricht

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2015 Bas Diederen (NED) 08:27:18 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 09:39:24

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Bas Diederen NED 00:46:22 04:43:33 02:51:59 08:27:18
2 Mark Oude Bennink NED 00:46:19 04:48:30 02:54:58 08:35:15
3 Alberto Casadei ITA 00:46:20 04:51:50 02:54:34 08:38:04

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 00:56:26 05:16:10 03:21:17 09:39:24
2 Sarissa De Vries NED 00:52:24 05:25:23 03:34:10 09:58:44
3 Carla Van Rooijen NED 01:09:18 05:32:16 03:16:20 10:04:38

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:27:18 Bas Diederen 2015-08-02
Swim overall 00:46:17 Martijn Dekker 2015-08-02
Bike overall 04:43:33 Bas Diederen 2015-08-02
Run overall 02:51:59 Bas Diederen 2015-08-02
Total female 09:39:24 Yvonne Van Vlerken 2015-08-02
Swim female 00:52:24 Sarissa De Vries 2015-08-02
Bike female 05:16:10 Yvonne Van Vlerken 2015-08-02
Run female 03:16:20 Carla Van Rooijen 2015-08-02

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Netherlands is – 05:33.

Race Adjustments for IM Netherlands

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2015 -05:33 00:41 -02:40 01:09 25 of 32 -05:33 00:41 -02:40 01:09

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Netherlands is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Bas Diederen NED 08:30:29 08:35:15 00:47:12 04:42:05 02:56:12 36% +8% -55% (16) 39
2 28 Markus Fachbach GER 08:42:47 08:37:06 00:49:26 04:45:38 03:02:43 83% +0% -17% (17) 47
3 20 Mark Oude Bennink NED 08:46:34 09:01:31 00:47:19 04:53:15 03:01:00 22% +37% -41% (6) 132
4 30 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:49:01 08:47:41 00:47:26 04:47:01 03:09:35 32% +12% -55% (10) 78
5 11 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 08:56:16 08:53:49 00:52:34 04:53:00 03:05:42 94% +6% -0% (6) 98
6 15 Diego Van Looy BEL 08:58:23 09:03:36 01:04:36 04:52:41 02:56:05 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (144)
7 8 Mike Schifferle SUI 09:06:02 09:02:37 01:00:03 04:55:27 03:05:32 85% +11% -4% (55) 137
8 13 Wouter Monchy BEL 09:15:21 09:21:03 00:51:04 05:03:29 03:15:49 27% +73% -0% (3) 199
9 5 Lucky Berlage BEL 09:15:31 09:10:36 00:56:10 05:02:19 03:12:03 100% +0% -0% (3) (166)
10 10 Darren Jenkins AUS 09:29:00 09:24:25 01:05:57 05:11:49 03:06:15 63% +0% -37% (8) 207
11 12 Michael Louys BEL 09:29:47 09:29:08 01:02:59 05:03:06 03:18:42 69% +10% -21% (9) 221
12 23 Sam Clark NZL 09:32:56 09:37:01 00:57:40 05:09:31 03:20:46 42% +0% -58% (2) (242)
13 18 David Jilek CZE 09:39:18 09:39:13 00:57:58 05:09:12 03:27:07 64% +21% -15% (7) 248
14 27 Lukas Polan CZE 09:52:50 09:56:55 01:02:42 05:18:13 03:26:55 30% +15% -55% (9) 271
15 7 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 10:08:18 10:12:19 01:00:51 05:31:33 03:30:54 66% +4% -30% (20) 285
16 6 Rob Bobbaers BEL 10:14:26 10:14:22 01:01:38 05:16:18 03:51:31 100% +0% -0% (2) (286)
17 26 Remmert Wielinga NED 10:19:52 10:52:28 01:12:24 05:12:23 03:50:05 7% +11% -82% (6) (297)
18 16 David Krupicka CZE 10:59:11 10:59:26 01:04:37 05:32:56 04:16:38 100% +0% -0% (2) (298)
19 21 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:52:46 12:09:19 01:12:14 06:01:57 04:33:35 32% +25% -43% (35) 303
4 Milan Brons NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
9 Omar Brons NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
14 Thomas Leboucher FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
19 Michael Van Cleven BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
22 Olivier Esser BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 62 Daniela Ryf SUI 08:59:50 08:55:12 00:51:04 04:58:08 03:05:38 55% +23% -22% (7) 1
2 57 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:28:54 09:17:57 00:51:04 05:11:20 03:21:31 93% +0% -7% (17) 13
3 56 Tine Deckers BEL 09:38:11 09:28:53 00:58:06 05:11:08 03:23:57 66% +7% -27% (19) 26
4 60 Katja Konschak GER 09:49:58 09:54:16 00:53:52 05:34:52 03:16:15 51% +35% -15% (17) 81
5 51 Alexandra Tondeur BEL 09:52:19 09:52:32 01:01:11 05:29:44 03:16:24 100% +0% -0% (2) (76)
6 58 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 09:56:07 10:05:09 00:55:14 05:34:36 03:21:17 31% +49% -20% (10) 100
7 52 Sarissa De Vries NED 10:01:39 10:10:31 00:52:48 05:27:59 03:35:53 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (110)
8 61 Kate Comber GBR 10:06:26 10:06:14 00:53:48 05:36:05 03:31:34 100% +0% -0% (2) (102)
9 55 Tineke Van den Berg NED 10:07:32 10:12:19 01:04:57 05:23:03 03:34:32 63% +13% -24% (5) 113
10 53 Alena Stevens SVK 10:27:43 10:24:38 01:01:46 05:46:32 03:34:26 65% +23% -12% (5) 146
54 Danne Boterenbrood n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Bas Diederen: 60% (1-1)
  • Markus Fachbach: 17% (5-1)
  • Mark Oude Bennink: 11% (9-1)
  • Igor Amorelli: 7% (14-1)
  • Erik-Simon Strijk: 3% (36-1)

Female Race Participants

There are a number of females on the start list that are unlikely to race if they already qualified for Kona in the July cutoff that happens before IM Netherlands. This includes Daniela Ryf, Tine Deckers, Katja Konschak and possibly Alexandra Tondeur. If all of these end up not racing, then Mary Beth Ellis is the race favorite, and a win should secure an August Kona slot for her.

  • Daniela Ryf: 69% (1-1)
  • Mary Beth Ellis: 18% (4-1)
  • Tine Deckers: 8% (11-1)
  • Katja Konschak: 3% (34-1)

KPR Situation Before the Last July Races

Update July 20th: In the latest startlists a few names have been removed. I have crossed them out in the tables below.

The race for the first round of Professional Kona slots is almost over – the July qualifying period that decides 28 female and 40 male slots ends on July 24th. There are only three more Ironman races (Switzerland, Lake Placid as WPRO only and Whistler as MPRO only) and one more 70.3 race (Calgary) before the first cutoff. This post looks at the final slots to be decided based on the rankings before the last weekend and the start lists posted on the Ironman website.

After the races are over, I’ll post the unofficial rankings based on my calculations as soon as possible. (The women’s ranking is already up.)

Women’s Qualifying

Assuming that Heather Jackson validates her slot by finishing in Lake Placid, Ariane Monticelli is currently in the last points qualifying spot. Here’s a table looking at the athletes close the cutoff and those on the startlists with a chance to overtake her:

Rank Name Country Points Races Race Plan Needed
24 Walter, Verena DEU 4.600 3+1 (405/435)
25 Tondeur, Alexandra BEL 4.530 2+3 (1280/435)
26 Gerdes, Beth USA 4.490 2+3 (1375/280)
27 Lester, Carrie AUS 4.420 2+2
28 Monticeli, Ariane BRA 4.335 2+3 (340/500) IM Zürich
29 Robertson, Jodie USA 4.305 1+3 (3400/240) 70.3 Calgary,
IM Lake Placid
3rd,
14th
33 Bilham, Emma CHE 3.755 1+3 (1600/240) IM Zürich 5th
35 Williamson, Kelly USA 3.215 2+1 IM Lake Placid 3rd
36 Grohmann, Katharina DEU 3.205 3+1 (855/320) IM Zürich Win
37 Moeller, Kristin DEU 3.145 2+1 IM Zürich 3rd
38 Badmann, Natascha CHE 3.095 2+2 IM Zürich 3rd
47 Herlbauer, Michaela AUT 2.585 2+2 IM Zürich Win

(Please note that “Needed” is the minimum result needed for qualifying, however it does not assure a slot when others add points as well.)

With Daniela Ryf also on the start line in Zürich, here’s my best guess at who is going to receive one of the open five July slots:

  • Verena Walter remains in the Top 28 (1). (It is possible but quite unlikely for her to drop out of the Top 28.)
  • Jodie Robertson should be able to finish at least in the Top 10 in Lake Placid 3 in Calgary (2).
  • Zürich is the race with the most athletes looking for slots, with probably two athletes racing well enough for a slot – possibly Ariane Monticelli and one of Emma, Kristin and Natascha (3 & 4).
  • The last slot would then go to Alexandra Tondeur – but she could be overtaken when more of the Zürich athletes finish well (5).

This would mean that Beth Gerdes and Carrie Lester would drop out of the July slots and that they would have to hope for a rolldown slot.

Men’s Qualifying

Assuming that Andy Potts validates his slot by finishing in Lake Placid, David Plese is currently in the last points qualifying spot. Here’s a table looking at the athletes close the cutoff and those on the startlists with a chance to overtake him:

Rank Name Country Points Races Race Plan Needed
31 Vistica, Andrej HRV 3.770 3+2 (720/30) IM Zürich
32 Rana, Ivan ESP 3.745 2+1
33 Chevrot, Denis FRA 3.735 2+2
34 Bittner, Per DEU 3.620 2+3 (1280/75)
35 Petersen-Bach, Jens DNK 3.610 3+1 (685/115)
36 Millward, Callum NZL 3.580 2+3 (685/435) IM Whistler
37 Wiltshire, Harry GBR 3.495 3+2 (720/135) IM Zürich
38 Billard, Bertrand FRA 3.490 2+2 IM Zürich
39 Chrabot, Matt USA 3.470 2+3 (235/345)
40 Plese, David SVN 3.415 3+2 (90/100) IM Zürich
41 Matthews, Paul AUS 3.225 1+3 (2455/145) 70.3 Calgary 2nd
43 Bracht, Timo DEU 2.995 2+2 IM Zürich 6th
46 Gomes, Pedro PRT 2.797 2+1 IM Whistler 5th
48 Zyemtsev, Viktor UKR 2.575 1+2 IM Whistler 4th
49 Aigroz, Mike CHE 2.555 2+3 (120/75) IM Whistler 4th
54 Carvalho, Fabio BRA 2.460 1+3 (1670/135) IM Zürich 4th
55 Van Berkel, Jan CHE 2.455 2+2 IM Zürich 3rd
56 Wurtele, Trevor CAN 2.445 1+3 (540/625) IM Whistler 3rd
62 Schildknecht, Ronnie CHE 2.190 2+0 IM Zürich 3rd
63 Brader, Christian DEU 2.099 3+1 (405/9) IM Zürich 2nd
66 Daerr, Justin USA 2.030 2+1 IM Whistler 2nd
84 Collins, Benjamin USA 1.635 2+3 (60/125) IM Whistler Win

Based on the available start lists, here’s my best guess at who is going to receive one of the open ten July slots:

  • The athletes currently in #31 to #34 (Andrej, Ivan, Denis and Per) will remain in the Top 40
    (1 to 4).
  • Three of the Whistler athletes will finish well enough for a slot – maybe Callum, Pedro and Viktor Mike (5 to 7).
  • At least two of the Zürich athletes will finish well. If I had to pick two, I’d go with Ronnie Schildknecht and Timo Bracht (8 and 9).
  • The last slot should be decided Jens Petersen-Bach and one other Zürich athlete (10).

But there are so many different scenarios that it’s still possible for any of the athletes in the above table to get a slot or drop out of the slot ranks– it’ll be exciting racing on Sunday!

Challenge Roth 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

The Roth course is ideal for fast times, and this year the weather was good as well – fresh in the morning with the sun quickly coming out,  temperatures around 28°C by the time the Pros started their run and absolutely no rain. While a number of athletes had great races (including of course the winners Jan Frodeno and Daniela Ryf with their fantastic times) the overall times were much in line with what I have analyzed for Roth before: The overall adjustment of 19:46 leads to a new course rating of 18:54, and the individual adjustments for the swim, bike and run legs were “Roth normal” as well – and very much in line with 2011, the year that Chrissie Wellington and Andreas Raelert set the world records.

Of course the highlight of the race was Jan Frodeno setting a new world record on the Ironman distance: His 7:35:39 was almost six minutes quicker than Andi Raelert’s time from 2011. But there were a number of other notable records as well:

  • Jan’s swim time of 45:22 beat the old Pro course record of Pete Jacobs from 2009.
  • Jan’s 4:08:07 is the fastest bike time of 2016, also beating the course record set by Andrew Starykowicz last year by a minute.
  • Daniela’s bike time of 4:31:29 is the fastest ever female bike time over the Ironman-distance. (The previous fastest time was 4:35:29 by Caroline Steffen at IM Melbourne 2012.)
  • Jan’s 2:39 run was the fastest run of 2016, but only for 20 minutes until Joe Skipper posted a 2:38:52 – fastest run of 2016 and also a new course record.
  • Joe Skipper’s 7:56:23 is a new British Ironman record and also the first sub-8 by a British athlete.
  • Cyril Vienot’s 8:02:44 is a new French Ironman record.

I’ve had a great time following the race in Roth, enjoying the race and it’s fantastic atmosphere. Anyone who has not ridden the Solarer Berg before, have a look at fourth place finisher Laura Siddall riding through the crowd, and put this race on your bucket list!

Laura Solarer Berg

Male Race Results

Frodo Swim

It was clear from the start that Jan Frodeno wanted to really go for the world record as he had announced before the race. He quickly swam away from the field and by the end of the swim he was already more than 90 seconds ahead. He continued to put time into the others, and even even a small crash when he overcooked a corner on a downhill couldn’t slow him down. By the time he reached T2 he had added almost another ten minutes to his lead and was well ahead of world record pace. He continued to push on the run (posting a 2:39, another personal best) and broke the world record by almost six minutes. A fantastic performance by Jan, and one that shows that he’ll be the clear favorite to defend his title in Kona.

Joe RunSecond place went to Joe Skipper who finally managed to put together a good bike ride and a great run. He was riding in the third bike group with Cyril Viennot and some others, and while a 4:21 is not slow he still lost some time to the second group with Nils Frommhold, Tyler Butterfield and Nick Kastelein. On the run Joe was reeling in one athlete after another and even managed to overtake Nils in the last few kilometers to claim second place in a well executed race.

Nils RunThird place went to defending Champion Nils Frommhold. A sub-8 is nothing to be ashamed of, but Nils seemed disappointed that Jan proved he is a step or two above everyone else. Compared to the great races that Frodo and Joe had, Nils’s day pales a little bit. He quickly lost contact to Jan on the swim, then rode with Tyler and Nick but the gap to Jan increased with every split. Nils then had a good 2:48 run but couldn’t make any inroads into Frodo’s lead. Then Joe Skipper took second place from him just a few k’s from the finish. I still think that Nils should be proud of his race, especially after his 29th place in Kona and his DNF in Texas he had a solid race even when things didn’t go quite the way he was hoping for. It’s now time for him to plan his second half of the 2016 season – and he is looking forward to hist first child in November. With extra “daddy power” you can expect him to be back in Kona 2017!

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Jan Frodeno GER 00:45:22 04:08:07 02:39:18 07:35:39 -19:00 EUR 20000
2 Joe Skipper GBR 00:52:36 04:21:12 02:38:52 07:56:23 -19:45 EUR 11000
3 Nils Frommhold GER 00:46:59 04:17:34 02:48:50 07:57:49 -05:25 EUR 6500
4 Cyril Viennot FRA 00:52:19 04:21:59 02:45:16 08:02:44 -13:47 EUR 4000
5 Nick Kastelein AUS 00:46:57 04:19:31 02:56:02 08:05:03 n/a EUR 2750
6 Tyler Butterfield BMU 00:48:56 04:17:18 03:08:46 08:18:39 01:35 EUR 1500
7 Fabian Rahn GER 00:55:44 04:33:04 02:47:56 08:20:11 n/a EUR 1100
8 Per Bittner GER 00:49:00 04:32:03 02:57:25 08:21:28 -02:29 EUR 950
9 Jan Raphael GER 00:48:58 04:32:28 03:00:40 08:24:55 04:52 EUR 800
10 Tobias Heining GER 00:48:58 04:34:14 03:00:18 08:26:43 n/a EUR 750
11 Marcel Bischof GER 00:55:20 04:38:37 02:50:33 08:27:48 -23:49
12 Jordan Bryden CAN 00:48:22 04:34:45 03:01:35 08:28:38 -52:10
13 Julien Marcq FRA 00:53:37 04:41:51 02:58:35 08:37:21 n/a
14 Thomas Naasz NED 00:55:20 04:40:01 03:00:01 08:39:12 -23:17
15 Henry Beck GER 00:48:54 04:32:34 03:23:36 08:48:30 -1:08:36
16 Christian Jais GER 00:55:17 04:34:54 03:20:09 08:53:45 -24:39
17 Ivan Jezko SVK 00:57:09 04:46:24 03:09:34 08:56:42 -20:25
18 Daniel Mugica Corrales ESP 00:50:56 04:58:05 03:12:12 09:04:21 n/a
19 Tjardo Visser NED 00:50:59 04:55:02 03:18:53 09:07:42 17:53
20 Xavier Diepart BEL 00:55:41 04:54:19 03:15:22 09:09:13 22:53
21 Sergio De La Sotilla ESP 00:58:26 05:06:34 03:15:22 09:26:26 n/a
22 Rob Bobbaers BEL 01:01:14 04:54:42 03:42:21 09:43:08 04:32
23 Jeremy Howard USA 00:52:17 05:19:18 03:32:01 09:47:47 06:30
24 Robert Duncan USA 01:00:42 05:20:25 03:41:58 10:08:09 n/a
25 Tomas Racek CZE 01:00:48 05:34:38 04:27:01 11:06:19 25:25
Thomas Hellriegel GER 00:49:01 04:42:03 DNF
Santi Pellejero Gacia ESP 00:48:55 05:19:57 DNF

Female Race Results

Dani BikeDaniela was as dominating in the women’s race as Jan was in the men’s race – both won by more than 20 minutes ahead of second place. After the frustrating DNF in Frankfurt only two weeks prior to Roth, Dani had a race and result she could enjoy immensely. The fastest time in all three legs and her first marathon under 3 hours lead to a fantastic 8:22, missing Chrissie’s record by only 4 minutes. After the bike she was even under world record pace, something probably no one expected before the race. Dani can be more optimistic about the rest of the season – any doubts after Frankfurt have been blown away with this result. She still has to validate her Kona slot (likely in Zürich next weekend), but after that she’ll focus on defending her 70.3 and Ironman World Champion titles.

As last year second place went to Carrie Lester.  In the pre-race coverage she was hardly mentioned, the focus was initially on a “Yvonne vs. Anja” duel, then shifted to “Daniela vs. Yvonne”. Carrie didn’t seem to be too concerned and was just focused on a good race. She had a good swim, reaching T1 with Michelle Vesterby and Anja Beranek. When Michelle had to drop back with mechanical issues and Yvonne had ridden up to Carrie and Anja, the three were riding together for most of the bike course and reached T2 within a minute of each other.

Run Cazza Yvonne

Anja quickly fell back in the first half of the run and Yvonne did her best to chase down Daniela, but Carrie didn’t loose too much time.. When Yvonne started to struggle as well, Carrie ran by her and took a very satisfying second place with the best relative performance of the day. Yvonne was vomiting towards the end of the run and had to dig deep to stay in third place, posting her 11th sub-9 time.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:49:10 04:31:29 02:57:40 08:22:04 -19:14 EUR 20000
2 Carrie Lester AUS 00:52:23 04:42:50 03:03:38 08:42:13 -28:15 EUR 11000
3 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 00:55:14 04:40:29 03:10:58 08:49:35 -08:18 EUR 6500
4 Laura Siddall GBR 00:55:30 04:47:32 03:05:41 08:51:59 -26:05 EUR 4000
5 Anja Beranek GER 00:52:24 04:43:10 03:21:56 09:00:20 00:51 EUR 2750
6 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:52:29 04:53:29 03:15:52 09:04:32 01:29 EUR 1500
7 Jessica Fleming AUS 00:55:23 04:58:54 03:19:06 09:16:54 -10:47 EUR 1100
8 Erika Csomor HUN 00:57:35 04:58:43 03:24:50 09:24:52 11:43 EUR 950
9 Michelle Duffield AUS 00:55:35 05:10:35 03:23:15 09:33:42 -19:43 EUR 800
10 Jenny Fletcher CAN 00:55:13 05:06:44 03:29:40 09:36:01 n/a EUR 750
11 Jenny Latham GBR 00:55:51 05:25:35 03:14:32 09:40:09 n/a
12 Carla Van Rooijen NED 01:14:13 05:10:34 03:23:18 09:52:02 02:28
13 Fabiola Corona MEX 00:55:14 05:20:23 03:38:11 09:56:38 -10:52
14 Caroline Gregory USA 00:55:36 05:40:49 04:00:21 10:40:01 49:15
Kathryn Haesner NZL 00:55:46 05:17:35 DNF
Monique Grossrieder SUI 01:00:49 05:22:02 DNF
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