IM Texas 2011 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

This year was the first time that an Ironman was held in Texas. Even with the hot and humid weather the course turned out to be pretty quick, with an adjustment of 15:34. Only IM Florida (about 100 seconds) an Challenge Roth (a bit more than 5 minutes) are quicker courses.

Male Results

Tim O’Donnell had a great first IM race, and it took an excellent performance by Eneko Llanos who won the race. Luke Bell (coming in third) was also in the mix for quite a while and seemed to be really happy with his performance.

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:08:20 08:13:43
2 Timothy ODonnell USA 08:09:50 n/a
3 Luke Bell AUS 08:12:22 08:41:56
4 Jan Raphael GER 08:20:41 08:34:59
5 Jozsef Major HUN 08:24:17 08:36:35
6 Axel Zeebroek BEL 08:28:07 08:51:23
7 Justin Daerr USA 08:29:44 08:45:30
8 Patrick Evoe USA 08:32:29 09:06:58
9 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:37:59 08:46:04
10 Torsten Abel GER 08:38:40 08:44:02
11 Mike Neill CAN 08:39:40 08:46:28
12 Sergio Marques PRT 08:48:57 08:52:51
13 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:52:07 08:34:03
14 Matthew Russell USA 09:03:06 09:13:00
15 Michael Lovato USA 09:03:49 08:43:51
16 Raul Furtado   09:09:39 09:07:49
17 Brad Seng USA 09:15:13 09:02:47
18 Sebastian Pedraza ITA 09:16:38 08:56:44
19 Allan Villanueva   09:26:46 n/a
20 Hirotsugu Kuwabara   09:55:29 n/a
21 John Flanagan USA 10:02:23 09:46:28
22 Steven Osborne GBR 10:02:23 09:54:28
23 Jerome Bresson CAN 10:02:23 09:45:26
24 Daniel Schmoll   13:07:28 09:03:29

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

A couple of highly rated athletes had to drop out (e.g Chris Lieto) or didn’t even start (haven’t seen a mention of Rutger Beke). As usual, the first half of the field had good races, while the second half was struggling – even some big names such as Luke McKenzie and Michael Lovato.

Female Results

Cat Morrison posted a great result – except for Chrissie Wellington’s time in South Africa it was the fastest IM time this year. Her 8:57 (adjusted to 9:13) lead to her new rating of 9:33 which also allowed her to move into the TTR Top 10.

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Catriona Morrison GBR 08:57:51 09:24:23
2 Kelly Williamson USA 09:07:54 09:36:38
3 Sofie Goos BEL 09:12:53 09:34:04
4 Tyler Stewart USA 09:13:13 09:30:40
5 Tine Deckers BEL 09:19:27 09:33:01
6 Kim Loeffler USA 09:20:04 09:36:40
7 Desiree Ficker USA 09:24:09 10:19:44
8 Jacqui Gordon USA 09:27:20 10:03:30
9 Joanna Lawn NZL 09:32:19 09:15:56
10 Lauren Harrison USA 09:46:22 09:55:54
11 Michaela Giger SWI 09:58:43 10:19:06
12 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:06:29 10:06:38
13 Sharon Schmidt-Mongrain   10:09:03 n/a
14 Miranda Alldritt CAN 10:19:12 10:48:13
15 Dede Griesbauer USA 10:28:23 09:35:57
16 Caroline Smith   10:35:06 n/a
17 Jocelyn Wong USA 10:50:50 10:24:01

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

Almost the full women’s field managed to post faster times than predicted – maybe they were aided just a little bit by the large men’s field? The ratings before the race were close enough and the race proved to be about as exciting as I was hoping for. Desiree Ficker managed to turn in a solid time after a string of DNFs and not so good result – and she still only managed to come in 7th!

I’m sure that Joanna Lawn and Dede Griesbauer were not happy with the way their races turned out. Pre race favorite Jo Lawn was about 15 minutes slower than predicted and was beaten by eight women racers. Dede Griesbauer was almost one hour slower than her rating would have predicted – I’m afraid she’ll have problems to qualify for Kona this year.

IM Brazil 2011–Predictions (Main Post)

As per usual, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

IM Brazil is one of the fastest courses on the IM calendar. It has a course rating of 15:05 and is quicker than IM Arizona (at 12:39), but a bit slower than IM Florida (at 17:17) and Challenge Roth (at 20:47).

Male Participants

The rankings are topped by Oscar Halindez and Eduardo Sturla who between them won this race from 2006 onwards:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Oscar Galindez ARG 08:22:58 08:41:18 25
2 Eduardo Sturla ARG 08:23:03 08:41:23 26
3 Santiago Ascenco BRA 08:25:12 08:43:37 30
4 Ezequiel Morales ARG 08:34:08 08:52:53 61
5 Chris McDonald AUS 08:34:21 08:53:06 62
6 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:38:33 08:57:27 76
7 Ivan Albano BRA 08:51:57 09:11:21 117
8 Brandon Marsh USA 08:53:57 09:13:25 132
9 Keegan Williams NZL 08:54:43 09:14:13 137
10 Mike Schifferle SWI 09:03:29 09:23:18 196
11 Lucas Cocha ARG 09:03:38 09:23:27 198
12 Bonieck Clemente BRA 09:07:52 09:27:50 217
13 Antonio Filho BRA 09:10:43 09:30:48 232
14 Richard Wygand BRA 10:44:59 11:08:30 619
15 Kelmerson Henri Buck BRA n/a unrated n/a
16 Luiz Francisco Ferreira BRA n/a unrated n/a
17 Fredrico Carvalho Zacharias BRA n/a unrated n/a
18 Mario De Elias ARG n/a unrated n/a
19 Santiago Amigo ARG n/a unrated n/a

There aren’t any rock stars, but it’ll be interested to see how “rising” athletes like Chris McDonald, Brandon Marsh and Keegan Williams are going to do.

Female Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Amy Marsh USA 09:14:32 09:34:45 10
2 Lucie Zelenkova ZAF 09:29:02 09:49:47 38
3 Ana Lidia Borba BRA 09:44:40 10:05:59 71
4 Sara Gross CAN 09:44:56 10:06:15 72
5 Fernanda Keller BRA 09:51:45 10:13:19 89
6 Hillary Biscay USA 09:57:22 10:19:09 108
7 Maria Omar BRA 10:00:12 10:22:05 114
8 Ariane Silveira BRA 10:05:38 10:27:43 132
9 Silvia Fusco BRA 10:17:02 10:39:32 159
10 Mariana Andrade BRA 10:37:47 11:01:02 193
11 Federica Frontini URU 10:38:30 11:01:47 194
12 Amanda Balding USA 10:45:09 11:08:40 205
13 Alessandra Carvalho BRA 11:47:40 12:13:28 232
14 Kelzie Beebe USA n/a unrated n/a
15 Vanessa Gianinni BRA n/a unrated n/a
16 Mariana Guimaraes BRA n/a unrated n/a

Not too many big names on the women’s side, I’m picking Amy Marsh (previous winner of IM Lake Placid and IM Wisconsin) as the race favorite. IM legend Fernanda Keller is back on the start list, but I’m afraid that she won’t contend for the win. I’m rooting for prolific blogger Hillary Biscay, I hope she can find back to some better IM results.

IM Brazil 2011–Predictions (Details Post)

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Oscar Galindez ARG 08:22:58 08:41:18 25
2 Eduardo Sturla ARG 08:23:03 08:41:23 26
3 Santiago Ascenco BRA 08:25:12 08:43:37 30
4 Ezequiel Morales ARG 08:34:08 08:52:53 61
5 Chris McDonald AUS 08:34:21 08:53:06 62
6 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:38:33 08:57:27 76
7 Ivan Albano BRA 08:51:57 09:11:21 117
8 Brandon Marsh USA 08:53:57 09:13:25 132
9 Keegan Williams NZL 08:54:43 09:14:13 137
10 Mike Schifferle SWI 09:03:29 09:23:18 196
11 Lucas Cocha ARG 09:03:38 09:23:27 198
12 Bonieck Clemente BRA 09:07:52 09:27:50 217
13 Antonio Filho BRA 09:10:43 09:30:48 232
14 Richard Wygand BRA 10:44:59 11:08:30 619
15 Kelmerson Henri Buck BRA n/a unrated n/a
16 Luiz Francisco Ferreira BRA n/a unrated n/a
17 Fredrico Carvalho Zacharias BRA n/a unrated n/a
18 Mario De Elias ARG n/a unrated n/a
19 Santiago Amigo ARG n/a unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Amy Marsh USA 09:14:32 09:34:45 10
2 Lucie Zelenkova ZAF 09:29:02 09:49:47 38
3 Ana Lidia Borba BRA 09:44:40 10:05:59 71
4 Sara Gross CAN 09:44:56 10:06:15 72
5 Fernanda Keller BRA 09:51:45 10:13:19 89
6 Hillary Biscay USA 09:57:22 10:19:09 108
7 Maria Omar BRA 10:00:12 10:22:05 114
8 Ariane Silveira BRA 10:05:38 10:27:43 132
9 Silvia Fusco BRA 10:17:02 10:39:32 159
10 Mariana Andrade BRA 10:37:47 11:01:02 193
11 Federica Frontini URU 10:38:30 11:01:47 194
12 Amanda Balding USA 10:45:09 11:08:40 205
13 Alessandra Carvalho BRA 11:47:40 12:13:28 232
14 Kelzie Beebe USA n/a unrated n/a
15 Vanessa Gianinni BRA n/a unrated n/a
16 Mariana Guimaraes BRA n/a unrated n/a

Results for Oscar Galindez (ARG)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brazil 2010-05-30 08:32:59 08:51:02 08:41:18 5
IM Brazil 2007-05-27 08:21:11 08:37:41 08:37:31 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:33:24 08:33:16 08:37:28 13
IM Brazil 2006-01-01 08:15:19 08:27:48 08:39:08 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:29:50 08:31:12 08:45:11 11
IM Brazil 2005-05-28 09:00:04 09:00:04 09:00:04 2

Results for Eduardo Sturla (ARG)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:32:52 08:45:25 08:41:23 6
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:48:07 08:51:00 08:40:46 31
IM Brazil 2010-05-30 08:20:24 08:38:00 08:39:07 4
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:49:22 08:45:32 08:39:18 19
IM Brazil 2009-05-31 08:13:39 08:28:15 08:38:06 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:36:53 08:35:05 08:40:18 10
IM Brazil 2008-05-25 08:28:27 08:36:56 08:41:37 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:36:31 08:38:17 08:43:05 13
IM Brazil 2007-05-27 08:29:27 08:46:14 08:44:58 3
IM Florida 2006-11-04 08:23:49 08:37:18 08:44:14 2
IM Brazil 2006-01-01 08:39:06 08:52:11 08:52:11 7

Results for Santiago Ascenco (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brazil 2010-05-30 08:18:32 08:36:04 08:43:37 3
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:33:26 08:51:50 08:51:50 9

Results for Ezequiel Morales (ARG)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:56:02 08:58:58 08:52:53 40
IM Brazil 2010-05-30 08:12:43 08:30:03 08:51:15 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:54:27 08:50:35 08:58:25 23
IM Brazil 2009-05-31 08:39:01 08:54:22 09:01:51 4
IM Brazil 2008-05-25 08:55:55 09:04:52 09:07:06 6
IM Brazil 2006-01-01 08:56:53 09:10:25 09:10:25 12

Results for Chris McDonald (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:32:37 08:49:58 08:53:06 9
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:52:04 08:54:58 08:53:22 35
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 08:37:22 08:53:58 08:53:13 9
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 08:48:30 09:01:20 08:53:08 5
IM St. George 2010-05-01 08:54:42 08:51:06 08:52:17 3
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 08:56:47 08:55:49 08:52:25 5
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:17:39 08:34:52 08:52:01 11
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 08:37:41 08:47:40 08:54:11 1
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:58:59 09:11:24 08:55:02 17
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 08:43:29 08:50:05 08:52:37 1
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:20:59 08:43:15 08:53:03 4
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 08:49:37 08:56:20 08:54:57 3
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 08:24:42 08:49:53 08:54:38 9
IM Wisconsin 2006-09-10 09:12:35 08:58:02 08:55:49 2
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 09:07:55 08:59:31 08:55:12 9
IM Australia 2006-05-11 08:57:09 08:59:46 08:53:35 8
IM Canada 2005-08-29 08:47:10 08:53:07 08:50:01 5
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 08:46:45 08:46:45 08:46:45 5

Results for Guilherme Manocchio (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brazil 2010-05-30 08:39:11 08:57:27 08:57:27 7

Results for Ivan Albano (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brazil 2010-05-30 08:54:05 09:12:52 09:11:21 9
IM Brazil 2009-05-31 09:04:38 09:20:45 09:10:59 10
IM Brazil 2008-05-25 08:58:55 09:07:55 09:08:30 7
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:50:46 09:09:14 09:08:40 18
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:15:57 09:15:49 09:08:28 63
IM Brazil 2006-01-01 08:45:00 08:58:14 09:05:33 8
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 09:27:56 09:14:18 09:09:28 7
IM Brazil 2005-05-28 09:04:25 09:04:25 09:04:25 5

Results for Brandon Marsh (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:50:47 09:07:23 09:13:25 12
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 09:13:52 09:21:55 09:15:13 12
IM Florida 2009-11-07 08:42:41 08:56:43 09:12:30 9
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 09:14:41 09:13:41 09:21:06 9
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:16:44 09:29:34 09:29:34 26

Results for Keegan Williams (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 08:49:34 08:54:25 09:14:13 4
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-01 10:49:47 10:32:38 09:19:21 7
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 08:40:11 08:51:53 08:54:40 4
Challenge Wanaka 2010-01-16 08:41:19 08:47:12 08:55:50 3
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 09:05:55 09:12:50 09:01:48 6
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 08:44:08 08:50:47 08:50:47 1

Results for Mike Schifferle (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:04:02 09:17:21 09:23:18 14
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:47:53 09:04:23 09:24:14 11
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:09:02 09:27:37 09:27:43 22
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 08:58:35 09:06:24 09:27:44 8
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:08:49 09:04:50 09:33:15 34
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:21:13 09:19:16 09:41:24 53
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:28:17 09:30:13 09:48:32 57
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 10:00:35 09:57:28 09:55:27 20
IM Florida 2006-11-04 09:41:45 09:57:19 09:54:21 31
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:51:31 09:51:22 09:51:22 77

Results for Lucas Cocha (ARG)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brazil 2009-05-31 09:07:16 09:23:27 09:23:27 12

Results for Bonieck Clemente (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brazil 2010-05-30 09:08:32 09:27:50 09:27:50 14

Results for Antonio Filho (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brazil 2006-01-01 09:16:46 09:30:48 09:30:48 15

Results for Richard Wygand (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:49:28 10:09:25 11:08:30 31
IM Brazil 2010-05-30 10:25:25 10:47:25 11:30:02 18
IM Florida 2008-11-01 11:48:16 12:18:28 11:51:54 46
IM Brazil 2007-05-27 11:15:45 11:38:00 11:34:23 33
IM Florida 2006-11-04 11:12:26 11:30:25 11:30:25 42

Results for Kelmerson Henri Buck (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Luiz Francisco Ferreira (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Fredrico Carvalho Zacharias (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Mario De Elias (ARG)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Santiago Amigo (ARG)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Amy Marsh (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:28:19 09:31:25 09:34:45 11
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:27:30 09:31:04 09:36:35 1
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 09:43:59 09:42:56 09:42:56 1

Results for Lucie Zelenkova (ZAF)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:04:42 10:00:19 09:49:47 22
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 09:16:32 09:28:52 09:46:06 1
IM South Africa 2008-04-13 09:34:09 09:43:10 09:54:18 3
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 09:32:05 09:50:55 10:01:56 5
IM South Africa 2006-03-18 10:19:32 10:13:27 10:13:27 4

Results for Ana Lidia Borba (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brazil 2009-05-31 09:52:29 10:10:01 10:05:59 5
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:48:03 10:01:36 10:01:36 7

Results for Sara Gross (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2009-08-30 10:42:08 10:49:12 10:06:15 13
IM Brazil 2009-05-31 09:44:46 10:02:04 09:59:55 4
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:06:10 10:04:04 09:59:34 20
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:41:31 09:54:43 09:58:47 4
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 10:03:45 10:11:11 09:59:37 4
IM Florida 2007-11-03 09:24:41 09:44:20 09:56:43 7
IM Canada 2007-08-26 09:43:34 09:49:11 10:00:20 2
IM Brazil 2007-05-27 09:33:09 09:52:01 10:04:44 5
IM Canada 2006-08-27 10:12:35 10:13:59 10:12:29 5
IM Canada 2005-08-29 10:03:55 10:10:44 10:10:44 6

Results for Fernanda Keller (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:37:44 10:33:07 10:13:19 38
IM Brazil 2009-05-31 09:54:11 10:11:46 10:09:38 6
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:43:16 10:41:02 10:09:10 38
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:25:03 10:27:11 10:01:36 39
IM Brazil 2007-05-27 09:29:29 09:48:14 09:55:07 4
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:50:35 09:50:26 09:57:16 17
IM Brazil 2006-01-01 09:51:39 10:06:34 09:59:58 5
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 10:10:30 10:12:08 09:56:27 33
IM Brazil 2005-05-28 09:39:46 09:39:46 09:39:46 2

Results for Hillary Biscay (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:47:51 10:51:23 10:19:09 39
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 10:29:06 10:38:14 10:17:27 7
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 10:39:44 10:55:16 10:16:19 11
IM Brazil 2010-05-30 09:44:38 10:05:12 10:14:09 4
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 10:41:44 10:39:23 10:14:40 9
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 10:02:58 10:01:53 10:13:09 3
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 10:47:50 10:47:25 10:13:49 12
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 10:28:45 10:27:26 10:11:47 5
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 10:16:39 10:28:33 10:10:48 2
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:35:10 10:32:58 10:09:42 37
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 09:47:25 09:54:50 10:08:12 1
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 09:58:45 10:02:59 10:09:06 3
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 09:24:19 09:49:23 10:09:32 6
IM Brazil 2008-05-25 09:56:10 10:06:07 10:11:03 1
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 09:53:21 10:03:36 10:11:27 8
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 10:11:17 10:19:02 10:12:07 2
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:56:46 09:58:48 10:11:30 21
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 10:01:30 10:06:15 10:12:41 2
IM Brazil 2007-05-27 09:44:14 10:03:28 10:13:20 6
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 11:33:07 11:41:13 10:14:23 11
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 09:34:53 09:47:54 10:04:14 4
Challenge Wanaka 2007-01-20 09:58:35 10:09:48 10:06:21 3
IM Florida 2006-11-04 09:40:39 09:56:11 10:05:51 3
IM Wisconsin 2006-09-10 10:07:01 09:51:02 10:07:26 2
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 09:59:46 09:57:25 10:10:33 5
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 09:43:36 09:56:08 10:13:30 3
IM Brazil 2006-01-01 09:34:19 09:48:48 10:18:19 3
IM Canada 2005-08-29 10:36:56 10:44:08 10:29:00 11
IM Lake Placid 2005-07-24 10:31:33 10:26:19 10:21:07 10
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 10:15:40 10:15:40 10:15:40 7

Results for Maria Omar (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:42:31 10:46:02 10:22:05 38
IM Brazil 2010-05-30 09:36:03 09:56:19 10:12:12 3
IM Brazil 2009-05-31 09:57:52 10:15:33 10:22:19 7
IM Brazil 2008-05-25 10:19:57 10:30:18 10:30:18 6

Results for Ariane Silveira (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brazil 2009-05-31 10:09:41 10:27:43 10:27:43 9

Results for Silvia Fusco (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brazil 2010-05-30 10:15:56 10:37:36 10:39:32 6
IM Brazil 2009-05-31 10:21:54 10:40:18 10:40:59 11
IM Brazil 2006-01-01 10:26:24 10:42:11 10:42:11 11

Results for Mariana Andrade (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brazil 2010-05-30 10:19:51 10:41:39 11:01:02 7
IM Brazil 2009-05-31 10:32:27 10:51:10 11:14:16 13
IM Brazil 2007-05-27 11:23:48 11:46:19 11:46:19 15

Results for Federica Frontini (URU)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brazil 2010-05-30 10:39:18 11:01:47 11:01:47 11

Results for Amanda Balding (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brazil 2010-05-30 10:33:12 10:55:28 11:08:40 10
IM Florida 2008-11-01 10:09:38 10:35:38 11:12:26 9
IM Canada 2008-08-24 11:13:05 11:28:22 11:22:51 16
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 10:53:05 11:08:13 11:20:46 13
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 11:49:33 11:51:58 11:27:31 56
IM Canada 2007-08-26 10:56:14 11:02:32 11:02:32 19

Results for Alessandra Carvalho (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brazil 2007-05-27 11:50:05 12:13:28 12:13:28 20

Results for Kelzie Beebe (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Vanessa Gianinni (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Mariana Guimaraes (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Looking forward to IM Texas 2011 (Main Post)

This is the first time that an Ironman race takes place in Texas. Therefore, there is not historical data to come up with a meaningful predicted end times. We can speculate a bit how race conditions are going to be, but that would be in the realm of speculation. Therefore, all I can show is the ratings of the people in the start list. If you want to have a closer look at the previous results for the participants, have a look at the details post.

Male Participants

Here’s the list of male pros that are in the startlist:

Rank Name Nation Rating Rank
1 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:29:42 6
2 Pedro Gomez POR 08:36:58 15
3 Rutger Beke BEL 08:42:26 22
4 Chris Lieto USA 08:47:19 32
5 Jan Raphael GER 08:51:35 44
6 Jozsef Major HUN 08:53:22 49
7 Jason Shortis AUS 08:53:42 51
8 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:55:53 64
9 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:56:10 65
10 Balazs Csoke HUN 08:57:21 66
11 Torsten Abel GER 09:01:12 80
12 Luke Bell AUS 09:01:12 80
13 Michael Lovato USA 09:01:26 83
14 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:01:30 85
15 Justin Daerr USA 09:02:26 89
16 Mike Neill CAN 09:04:20 93
17 Axel Zeebroek BEL 09:08:12 103
18 Sergio Marques PRT 09:10:04 107
19 Sebastian Pedraza ITA 09:15:54 130
20 Rene Goehler DEU 09:16:31 135
21 Romain Guillaume FRA 09:16:31 135
22 Brad Seng USA 09:20:33 164
23 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:24:38 191
24 Markus Strini AUT 09:27:05 201
25 Matthew Russell USA 09:30:33 213
26 Tim Snow USA 09:37:35 243
27 Lewis Elliot USA 09:45:17 290
28 Jerome Bresson CAN 10:04:32 393
29 John Flanagan USA 10:05:09 398
30 Steven Osborne GBR 10:12:57 429
31 Allan Villanueva   unrated n/a
32 Timothy ODonnell   unrated n/a
33 Daniel Schmoll   unrated n/a
34 Raul Furtado   unrated n/a
35 Hirotsugu Kuwabara   unrated n/a

A pretty amazing field – probably the biggest and best field of any 2011 IM race! Eneko has to be the favorite for the race, not only does he have the best rating, but also by a bit of a margin. The second rated athlete, Pedro Gomez only has one result so far (an 8:19 from his 2nd place at IM Florida 2010), so I’m not sure how he’s going to do. Then there are Rutger Beke and Chris Lieto – both great athletes that had not so good last races. In addition to that it gets really hard to draw a line with regards to the people that might contend for a podium spot – there are just so many people with very similar ratings that it gets almost impossible to come up with solid predictions.

Female Participants

The women’s start list also shows a number of great athletes:

Rank Name Nation Rating Rank
1 Joanna Lawn NZL 09:34:33 7
2 Linsey Corbin USA 09:38:42 12
3 Catriona Morrison GBR 09:42:50 18
4 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:46:21 26
5 Tyler Stewart USA 09:49:01 31
6 Tine Deckers BEL 09:51:13 38
7 Sofie Goos BEL 09:53:38 40
8 Kim Loeffler USA 09:55:27 41
9 Kelly Williamson USA 09:57:07 45
10 Alison Fitch AUS 09:57:41 48
11 Mirjam Weerd NLD 09:57:49 49
12 Dede Griesbauer USA 10:03:01 58
13 Eva Dollinger AUT 10:04:58 64
14 Emi Shiono JPN 10:12:45 80
15 Lauren Harrison USA 10:14:24 84
16 Jessica Jacobs USA 10:17:02 90
17 Danielle Sullivan USA 10:18:30 97
18 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:22:59 105
19 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:26:00 114
20 Sarah Schuetz SWI 10:29:24 124
21 Michaela Giger SWI 10:31:16 131
22 Desiree Ficker USA 10:37:57 144
23 Teri Albertazzi USA 10:48:21 161
24 Miranda Alldritt CAN 11:09:45 192
25 Corinne Abraham   unrated n/a
26 Caroline Snith   unrated n/a
27 Sharon Schmidt-Mongrain   unrated n/a
28 Olja Bregar   unrated n/a

Jo Lawn has the best rating, but Linsey Corbin and Cat Morrison are close enough to her to be in the running for the win. As with the men, the list of potential athletes contending for the podium goes on and on.

Looking forward to IM Lanzarote 2011 (Main Post)

As per usual, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

Lanzarote is one of the hardest courses in the Ironman calendar. The adjustments are pretty consistent and hover around Zero. The current course rating is at minus 36 seconds, about two and a half minutes slower than IM Hawaii.

Male Participants

The big name in this year’s race is Timo Bracht who is the clear favorite:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Timo Bracht GER 08:32:38 08:32:28 8
2 Esben Hovgaard DNK 08:49:36 08:49:26 39
3 Alvaro Velazquez DNS 09:13:55 09:13:44 115
4 Aleksandar Markovic DNK 09:14:28 09:14:17 118
5 Dirk Wijnalda NLD 09:16:11 09:16:00 131
6 Gregorio Morales ESP 09:16:20 09:16:09 133
7 Bo Ballegaard DNK 09:17:44 09:17:33 143
8 Konstantin Bachor GER 09:19:20 09:19:09 152
9 Rafael Wyss SWI 09:34:33 09:34:22 229
10 Nicholas Peter Munoz ESP 09:41:17 09:41:06 264
11 Damien Landon FRA 09:47:14 09:47:03 304
12 Jerzy Kasemier NLD 09:55:33 09:55:21 346
13 Ivan Tejero Vazquez 10:37:25 10:37:13 515
14 Fernando Cuenllas n/a unrated n/a
15 Paul Hawkins n/a unrated n/a
16 Joel Jameson n/a unrated n/a
17 Christian Nitschke n/a unrated n/a
18 Victor Morales n/a unrated n/a
19 Erich Kunz n/a unrated n/a
20 Markus Mlinar n/a unrated n/a

After Timo, the next athlete is Esben Hovgaard – not exactly a household name: All I have in my database for him is  a solid 8:31 from IM Florida 2010, and it’ll be interesting to see how he is going to do. After Esben there are six  pretty similarly rated athletes. As a result, I’m expecting a clear winner (could turn out to be by 30 minutes) and a close race for the other podium spots.

Female Participants

On the female side, the pro field is not very big:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Karina Ottosen DNK 10:05:09 10:04:57 63
2 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 10:10:34 10:10:22 73
3 Heidi Jesberger GER 10:18:30 10:18:18 96
4 Joanna Carritt GBR 10:34:13 10:34:01 138
5 Nicole Woysch GER 10:38:52 10:38:40 148
6 Emma Smith n/a unrated n/a
7 Esther DeVries n/a unrated n/a
8 Ute Streiter n/a unrated n/a

The rated athletes all seem to have a shot at winning the race, and it’s very hard to pick a clear favorite. Karina Ottosen has the best rating, but only two races. Kate Bevilaqua has been posting up and down results, if she’s on form she has a good shot at winning. Heidi Jesberger and Nicole Woysch have some experience on Lanzarote, both of them have been second there in the past. And Jo Carritt .. she’s a very solid racer, and if the supposedly faster athletes run into problems, she’ll be there. As with the men’s race, a close race is shaping up!

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