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Ironman Boulder 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

This was the first year that an Ironman was held in Boulder – and probably the last one with a professional field. Overall, it was a relatively slow course (adjustment of 0:17), between IM Lake Placid (a bit slower at -2:22) and Coeur d’Alene (a bit faster at 1:56). The bike seemed to be pretty fast, while the run was a lot slower – not too many fast runs, and only one sub-3h run.

Male Race Results

Richie Cunningham was leading the race for a long time, but Justin Daerr’s 2:56 run carried the day:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Justin Daerr USA 00:53:21 04:24:54 02:56:41 08:20:26 -26:24
2 Richie Cunningham AUS 00:50:28 04:24:47 03:09:56 08:30:38 -09:13
3 Scott Defilippis USA 00:57:27 04:47:48 03:02:48 08:54:19 -11:40
4 Steven Zawaski USA 00:58:44 04:43:35 03:13:09 09:01:53 n/a
5 Mark Hillers USA 00:58:57 04:56:46 03:12:53 09:14:44 n/a
6 Jared Milam USA 00:57:31 04:53:05 03:42:49 09:40:00 27:30
  Karol Kristov EST 00:53:24 04:46:14   DNF  
  Dantley Young USA 01:02:42 04:53:36   DNF  

Female Race Results

Danielle Kehoe had the best run of the day to take her first Ironman win. She overtook Laura Bennett who couldn’t hold on to the lead in her first Ironman but finished second:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Danielle Kehoe USA 01:03:53 04:52:56 03:16:42 09:19:54 -54:15
2 Laura Bennett USA 00:54:02 04:59:29 03:44:31 09:43:59 n/a
3 Christine Hammond USA 00:55:38 05:09:33 03:41:44 09:53:04 -06:10
4 Morgan Chaffin USA 00:57:56 05:05:21 03:46:57 09:57:28 -51:10
5 Uli Bromme USA 01:03:53 04:56:04 04:06:38 10:12:53 20:03
6 Olesya Prystayko UKR 01:04:07 05:16:24 03:58:50 10:25:31 14:21
7 Alyssa Godesky USA 01:03:57 05:32:37 04:42:47 11:27:37 51:33
  Carrie Lester AUS 00:55:37 04:52:29   DNF  

Ironman Boulder 2014 (August 3rd) – Predictions

Update (July 31st): Rebekah Keat confirmed she is not starting at IM Boulder.

Update (August 1st): Kyle Buckingham also won’t be starting.

This is the first race on this course – therefore there are no previous results to build a course rating and predicted times from.

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Boulder has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 12 Kyle Buckingham ZAF n/a 08:36:08 00:49:17 04:34:21 02:59:00 (31)
2 1 Richie Cunningham AUS n/a 08:40:07 00:47:21 04:46:52 02:58:30 (44)
3 2 Justin Daerr USA n/a 08:47:06 00:53:42 04:46:20 03:01:44 64
4 8 Joe Umphenour USA n/a 08:54:36 00:47:32 04:51:11 03:09:16 99
5 4 Scott Defilippis USA n/a 09:06:16 00:55:35 05:00:30 03:02:54 161
6 7 Jared Milam USA n/a 09:12:48 00:53:41 05:04:05 03:08:13 190
7 13 Fabio Carvalho BRA n/a 09:17:49 00:52:47 05:22:33 03:12:39 (200)
8 10 Dantley Young USA n/a 10:12:39 01:02:44 05:23:43 03:38:34 (396)
5 Mark Hillers USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
6 Karol Kristov EST n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
11 Steven Zawaski USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 17 Rebekah Keat AUS n/a 09:26:05 00:52:54 05:12:12 03:15:39 12
2 19 Carrie Lester AUS n/a 09:38:16 00:55:24 05:12:46 03:23:47 39
3 18 Uli Bromme USA n/a 09:53:09 01:02:46 05:20:46 03:22:43 76
4 20 Christine Hammond USA n/a 09:59:33 00:54:44 05:25:54 03:34:00 91
5 25 Olesya Prystayko UKR n/a 10:11:30 01:00:47 05:28:06 03:36:21 107
6 22 Danielle Kehoe USA n/a 10:14:27 01:03:00 05:28:34 03:24:46 (118)
7 24 Alyssa Godesky USA n/a 10:36:26 01:04:17 05:34:23 03:40:26 (145)
8 23 Morgan Chaffin USA n/a 11:48:57 00:59:28 05:40:17 04:43:51 (162)
21 Laura Bennett USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

After winning in Lake Placid, it’s very unlikely that we’ll see Kyle Buckingham on the start line. (He has in fact confirmed he won’t start.)  This makes Justin Daerr the clear favorite:

  • Justin Daerr: 45% (1-1)
  • Kyle Buckingham: 20% (4-1)
  • Scott Defilippis: 13% (7-1)
  • Richie Cunningham: 9% (10-1)
  • Joe Umphenour: 8% (12-1)
  • Jared Milam: 4% (26-1)

Female Race Participants

Rebekah Keat is the strongest and most experienced athlete on the start list: With Rebekah Keat not starting, Carrie Lester is the clear favorite for the race:

  • Rebekah Keat: 66% (1-1)
  • Carrie Lester: 58% (1-1) 20% (4-1)
  • Uli Bromme: 29% (2-1) 10% (9-1)
  • Christine Hammond: 6% (15-1)
  • Olesya Prystayko: 3% (28-1)
  • Danielle Kehoe: 2% (50-1)

Ironman Canada (Whistler) 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Conditions in Whistler were slightly faster than last year, an adjustment of 7:00 leads to a new course rating of 5:07. (Statistically it was a bit weird: Each leg was slower than last year, but overall it was faster. This is caused by they way I discard outliers, it means that when athletes had a good leg, they were way faster than expected, and most other athletes were just slightly slower.)

Male Race Results

Marino won the race in convincing fashion, being close to the front on the swim, then pulling away on the bike and securing his Kona spot on the run. For a long time, Paul Ambrose held on to the 2nd place he would have needed to qualify, then fell back to fourth and eventually battled back into third. Second place was taken by Jeff Symonds with a great 2:40 run, while last year’s winner Trevor Wurtele had great start of the day but struggled to hold on to his great position on the run fading to fourth.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 00:50:56 04:31:34 02:51:17 08:16:10 -02:19
2 Jeff Symonds CAN 00:50:59 04:51:15 02:40:34 08:25:22 -11:35
3 Paul Ambrose GBR 00:50:58 04:41:05 02:58:16 08:33:10 -06:48
4 Trevor Wurtele CAN 00:51:04 04:41:38 03:07:27 08:42:59 -07:36
5 Andrew Drobeck USA 01:06:20 04:49:19 02:51:51 08:50:32 n/a
6 Matt Lieto USA 00:51:06 04:54:23 03:03:43 08:53:09 -16:13
7 Matthew Russell USA 00:59:08 04:52:31 03:09:51 09:05:45 20:06
8 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 00:56:51 05:06:06 03:07:05 09:13:14 -08:42
  Devon Palmer USA 00:53:57     DNF  
  Anthony Toth CAN 00:58:53 05:20:05   DNF  

Female Race Results

The women’s race was quite a nail biter: The Top 4 came off the bike within two minutes. Bree Wee was statistically the worst runner of the front pack, but needed a win to get enough points for Kona. With her known fightings spirit, she gave it everything and was elated to take the win. Karen Thibodeau and Mackenzie Madison finished on the podium, leaving only fourth place to Jackie Arendt.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Bree Wee USA 00:56:15 05:29:07 03:17:41 09:46:58 07:50
2 Karen Thibodeau CAN 00:55:59 05:29:19 03:22:52 09:51:35 -10:47
3 Mackenzie Madison USA 00:58:53 05:25:05 03:24:45 09:52:46 11:10
4 Jackie Arendt USA 00:56:19 05:31:26 03:27:46 09:59:06 15:04
5 Anna Cleaver NZL 00:53:09 05:43:39 03:24:57 10:05:23 n/a
6 Christine Fletcher CAN 00:58:29 05:37:11 03:35:10 10:14:21 04:50
7 Jenni Plane USA 01:02:49 06:40:30 04:53:21 12:43:17 00:57

Ironman Lake Placid 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

As usual, Lake Placid was a pretty slow course: This year the adjustment was -0:04, leading to a new course rating of -2:22. The swim and bike were especially slow (probably because of the rainy weather), it was partly compensated by a slightly faster than normal run. 

Male Race Results

Kyle Buckingham took control of the race early on the bike and never let up. Even if he was slightly slower than his earlier results would have indicated, he won in a very convincing fashion and secured a Kona spot. Behind him, Balasz Csoke took second with a good performance across the board, and Jonathan Shearon finished third.

Raymond Botelho took the men’s 7th and „winning“ the prize for #IMLP7th. 

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:52:04 04:43:47 02:57:49 08:38:43 05:52
2 Balazs Csoke HUN 00:48:28 04:50:33 03:07:08 08:51:26 -12:36
3 Jonathan Shearon USA 00:55:09 04:55:07 03:03:23 08:59:22 -01:30
4 Ryan Cain CAN 00:58:07 04:59:43 03:01:42 09:05:19 -08:19
5 Vinny Johnson USA 00:56:02 04:59:30 03:07:08 09:09:56 -19:30
6 Nathan Buttrick USA 01:04:22 05:00:05 03:04:01 09:14:07 -09:46
7 Raymond Botelho USA 00:55:07 05:00:49 03:19:32 09:23:21 -12:21
8 Patrick Wheeler USA 00:58:29 05:04:48 03:13:31 09:24:19 06:10
9 Joshua Rix AUS 00:52:27 05:00:13 03:34:25 09:32:47 32:21
10 Jesse Vondracek USA 00:57:27 05:14:01 03:19:02 09:36:00 01:35
11 James Chesson USA 00:59:49 05:16:57 03:19:45 09:41:47 36:04
12 Jim Lubinski USA 01:05:10 05:22:07 03:10:33 09:43:39 -03:47
13 Tomas Martinek CZE 00:48:24 05:26:12 03:24:58 09:45:26 n/a
14 Peter Kotland USA 01:02:05 05:23:34 03:58:58 10:33:11 34:28
  Kyle Pawlaczyk USA 01:02:47 04:58:22   DNF  
  Andrew Fast USA 01:01:02 05:04:37   DNF  
  AJ Baucco USA 00:54:10 05:17:14   DNF  
  Pedro Gomes POR 00:52:01     DNF  

Female Race Results

Amber Ferreira swam faster than all other finishers, then followed that up with strong bike and run performances and took the win. Kim Schwabenbauer and Lisa Roberts took spots on the podium, also securing their Kona slots. 

The winner of the women’s #IMLP7th was Rachel Jastrebsky.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Amber Ferreira USA 00:57:13 05:19:33 03:08:35 09:31:28 -23:20
2 Kim Schwabenbauer USA 01:03:46 05:18:31 03:10:04 09:38:14 00:08
3 Lisa Roberts USA 01:07:26 05:19:18 03:07:31 09:40:04 01:38
4 Kristin Lemos USA 01:03:41 05:22:13 03:18:30 09:50:26 n/a
5 Jessica Meyers USA 01:02:53 05:39:38 03:18:49 10:06:53 09:37
6 Kathryn Thomas USA 00:55:25 05:31:11 03:46:38 10:19:46 n/a
7 Rachel Jastrebsky USA 01:06:10 05:41:30 03:42:09 10:35:58 16:53
8 Leslie Lamacchia USA 01:08:24 05:54:02 03:35:48 10:44:11 -02:35
9 Kristyn Tobey BMU 01:08:28 05:53:14 03:42:38 10:50:35 13:52
10 Amanda Kourtz USA 01:17:31 06:07:01 04:06:32 11:38:30 27:13
  Darbi Roberts USA 00:54:11 05:33:36   DNF  
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