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Ironman Mont Tremblant 2014 (August 17th) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2012 Romain Guillaume (FRA) 08:40:48 Jessie Donavan (USA) 09:30:46
2013 Luke Bell (AUS) 08:26:06 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 09:07:56

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Luke Bell AUS 00:47:50 04:36:36 02:57:08 08:26:06
2 Brandon Marsh USA 00:47:45 04:41:04 02:56:24 08:31:01
3 Bert Jammaer BEL 00:48:07 04:40:31 02:58:08 08:31:35

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Mary Beth Ellis USA 00:51:43 04:58:18 03:12:47 09:07:56
2 Rebekah Keat AUS 00:55:18 05:07:25 03:08:32 09:16:55
3 Anja Beranek GER 00:53:20 05:00:30 03:18:14 09:17:26

Course Records

All the course records are from 2013, the first year that Mont Tremblant was the North American Championship race:

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:26:06 Luke Bell 2013-08-18
Swim overall 00:47:45 Brandon Marsh 2013-08-18
Bike overall 04:35:17 Romain Guillaume 2012-08-18
Run overall 02:52:20 Stefan Schmid 2013-08-18
Total female 09:07:56 Mary Beth Ellis 2013-08-18
Swim female 00:49:22 Haley Chura 2013-08-18
Bike female 04:58:18 Mary Beth Ellis 2013-08-18
Run female 03:03:45 Kim Schwabenbauer 2013-08-18

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Mont Tremblant is 08:22.

Race Adjustments for IM Mont Tremblant

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2012 11:17 -01:09 05:55 04:44 12 11:17 -01:09 05:55 04:44
2013 05:26 -00:34 03:13 04:17 32 08:22 -00:51 04:34 04:30

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Mont Tremblant has 4000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 125k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 2 Andreas Raelert GER 08:23:14 08:31:09 00:49:44 04:47:32 02:53:00 (19)
2 4 TJ Tollakson USA 08:36:16 08:44:23 00:49:21 04:42:08 03:07:46 57
3 9 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:42:05 08:50:18 00:48:02 04:41:50 03:14:44 76
4 10 Elliot Holtham CAN 08:42:10 08:50:23 00:52:52 04:48:10 03:02:57 77
5 6 Domenico Passuello ITA 08:44:54 08:53:09 00:54:41 04:44:15 03:07:02 90
6 3 Daniel Halksworth GBR 08:45:37 08:53:53 00:47:42 04:49:27 03:09:39 93
7 5 Matthew Russell USA 08:45:49 08:54:05 01:00:15 04:46:30 02:59:22 94
8 1 Luke Bell AUS 08:49:45 08:58:05 00:48:47 04:46:56 03:17:20 117
9 11 Christian Brader GER 08:50:30 08:58:51 00:56:32 04:52:52 03:04:11 121
10 14 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:52:48 09:01:11 00:54:17 04:45:18 03:14:51 136
11 13 Balazs Csoke HUN 08:54:10 09:02:34 00:47:57 04:50:13 03:19:27 140
12 23 Mathias Hecht SUI 08:55:05 09:03:30 00:49:35 04:54:04 03:14:13 (143)
13 12 Ryan Cain CAN 08:58:51 09:07:19 00:55:32 04:59:20 03:05:57 165
14 15 Wolfgang Guembel CAN 09:03:15 09:11:48 00:49:12 05:00:56 03:14:44 (186)
15 7 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:13:43 09:22:25 00:48:50 05:02:25 03:26:54 215
16 19 Brendan Naef CAN 09:35:13 09:44:16 00:57:22 05:14:04 03:24:53 304
17 16 Martin Lamontagne Lacasse CAN 09:37:04 09:46:08 00:55:04 05:14:37 03:26:15 312
18 18 Simon Malo CAN 09:50:27 09:59:44 00:57:21 05:06:48 03:44:02 (367)
  17 Eric Limkemann USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
  21 Sean Sullivan USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 35 Tine Deckers BEL 09:20:17 09:29:06 00:57:43 05:07:07 03:16:54 19
2 38 Melanie Burke NZL 09:39:29 09:48:36 01:05:27 05:17:49 03:20:24 61
3 34 Amber Ferreira USA 09:40:47 09:49:55 00:54:58 05:26:29 03:23:36 67
4 33 Sara Gross CAN 09:40:54 09:50:02 00:55:43 05:30:00 03:20:25 68
5 36 Beth Shutt USA 09:46:50 09:56:04 00:59:52 05:24:08 03:23:54 81
  45 Sharon Gallant CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
  42 Kelsey Withrow USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
  40 Sarah Graves USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The men with the best chances are all on a bit of a comeback trail: Andreas had a few frustrating DNFs (starting with Kona last year), defending champion Luke Bell was injured earlier this year, and TJ Tollakson took a long break after Kona (and becoming a father). So it will be an interesting race to watch, with at least one Kona slot on the line:

  • Andreas Raelert: 65% (1-1)
  • Luke Bell: 14% (6-1)
  • TJ Tollakson: 9% (10-1)
  • Mathias Hecht: 6% (15-1)
  • Daniel Halksworth: 2% (47-1)

Female Race Participants

The women’s field is surprisingly small for a championship race. Only eight athletes in a race that pays eight deep, but five of these athletes are looking for some KPR points to ensure qualification:

  • Tine Deckers: 53% (1-1)
  • Sara Gross: 18% (5-1)
  • Amber Ferreira: 17% (5-1)
  • Melanie Burke: 7% (12-1)
  • Beth Shutt: 4% (23-1)

Ironman Boulder 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

This was the first year that an Ironman was held in Boulder – and probably the last one with a professional field. Overall, it was a relatively slow course (adjustment of 0:17), between IM Lake Placid (a bit slower at -2:22) and Coeur d’Alene (a bit faster at 1:56). The bike seemed to be pretty fast, while the run was a lot slower – not too many fast runs, and only one sub-3h run.

Male Race Results

Richie Cunningham was leading the race for a long time, but Justin Daerr’s 2:56 run carried the day:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Justin Daerr USA 00:53:21 04:24:54 02:56:41 08:20:26 -26:24
2 Richie Cunningham AUS 00:50:28 04:24:47 03:09:56 08:30:38 -09:13
3 Scott Defilippis USA 00:57:27 04:47:48 03:02:48 08:54:19 -11:40
4 Steven Zawaski USA 00:58:44 04:43:35 03:13:09 09:01:53 n/a
5 Mark Hillers USA 00:58:57 04:56:46 03:12:53 09:14:44 n/a
6 Jared Milam USA 00:57:31 04:53:05 03:42:49 09:40:00 27:30
  Karol Kristov EST 00:53:24 04:46:14   DNF  
  Dantley Young USA 01:02:42 04:53:36   DNF  

Female Race Results

Danielle Kehoe had the best run of the day to take her first Ironman win. She overtook Laura Bennett who couldn’t hold on to the lead in her first Ironman but finished second:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Danielle Kehoe USA 01:03:53 04:52:56 03:16:42 09:19:54 -54:15
2 Laura Bennett USA 00:54:02 04:59:29 03:44:31 09:43:59 n/a
3 Christine Hammond USA 00:55:38 05:09:33 03:41:44 09:53:04 -06:10
4 Morgan Chaffin USA 00:57:56 05:05:21 03:46:57 09:57:28 -51:10
5 Uli Bromme USA 01:03:53 04:56:04 04:06:38 10:12:53 20:03
6 Olesya Prystayko UKR 01:04:07 05:16:24 03:58:50 10:25:31 14:21
7 Alyssa Godesky USA 01:03:57 05:32:37 04:42:47 11:27:37 51:33
  Carrie Lester AUS 00:55:37 04:52:29   DNF  

Ironman Boulder 2014 (August 3rd) – Predictions

Update (July 31st): Rebekah Keat confirmed she is not starting at IM Boulder.

Update (August 1st): Kyle Buckingham also won’t be starting.

This is the first race on this course – therefore there are no previous results to build a course rating and predicted times from.

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Boulder has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 12 Kyle Buckingham ZAF n/a 08:36:08 00:49:17 04:34:21 02:59:00 (31)
2 1 Richie Cunningham AUS n/a 08:40:07 00:47:21 04:46:52 02:58:30 (44)
3 2 Justin Daerr USA n/a 08:47:06 00:53:42 04:46:20 03:01:44 64
4 8 Joe Umphenour USA n/a 08:54:36 00:47:32 04:51:11 03:09:16 99
5 4 Scott Defilippis USA n/a 09:06:16 00:55:35 05:00:30 03:02:54 161
6 7 Jared Milam USA n/a 09:12:48 00:53:41 05:04:05 03:08:13 190
7 13 Fabio Carvalho BRA n/a 09:17:49 00:52:47 05:22:33 03:12:39 (200)
8 10 Dantley Young USA n/a 10:12:39 01:02:44 05:23:43 03:38:34 (396)
5 Mark Hillers USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
6 Karol Kristov EST n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
11 Steven Zawaski USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 17 Rebekah Keat AUS n/a 09:26:05 00:52:54 05:12:12 03:15:39 12
2 19 Carrie Lester AUS n/a 09:38:16 00:55:24 05:12:46 03:23:47 39
3 18 Uli Bromme USA n/a 09:53:09 01:02:46 05:20:46 03:22:43 76
4 20 Christine Hammond USA n/a 09:59:33 00:54:44 05:25:54 03:34:00 91
5 25 Olesya Prystayko UKR n/a 10:11:30 01:00:47 05:28:06 03:36:21 107
6 22 Danielle Kehoe USA n/a 10:14:27 01:03:00 05:28:34 03:24:46 (118)
7 24 Alyssa Godesky USA n/a 10:36:26 01:04:17 05:34:23 03:40:26 (145)
8 23 Morgan Chaffin USA n/a 11:48:57 00:59:28 05:40:17 04:43:51 (162)
21 Laura Bennett USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

After winning in Lake Placid, it’s very unlikely that we’ll see Kyle Buckingham on the start line. (He has in fact confirmed he won’t start.)  This makes Justin Daerr the clear favorite:

  • Justin Daerr: 45% (1-1)
  • Kyle Buckingham: 20% (4-1)
  • Scott Defilippis: 13% (7-1)
  • Richie Cunningham: 9% (10-1)
  • Joe Umphenour: 8% (12-1)
  • Jared Milam: 4% (26-1)

Female Race Participants

Rebekah Keat is the strongest and most experienced athlete on the start list: With Rebekah Keat not starting, Carrie Lester is the clear favorite for the race:

  • Rebekah Keat: 66% (1-1)
  • Carrie Lester: 58% (1-1) 20% (4-1)
  • Uli Bromme: 29% (2-1) 10% (9-1)
  • Christine Hammond: 6% (15-1)
  • Olesya Prystayko: 3% (28-1)
  • Danielle Kehoe: 2% (50-1)

Ironman Canada (Whistler) 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Conditions in Whistler were slightly faster than last year, an adjustment of 7:00 leads to a new course rating of 5:07. (Statistically it was a bit weird: Each leg was slower than last year, but overall it was faster. This is caused by they way I discard outliers, it means that when athletes had a good leg, they were way faster than expected, and most other athletes were just slightly slower.)

Male Race Results

Marino won the race in convincing fashion, being close to the front on the swim, then pulling away on the bike and securing his Kona spot on the run. For a long time, Paul Ambrose held on to the 2nd place he would have needed to qualify, then fell back to fourth and eventually battled back into third. Second place was taken by Jeff Symonds with a great 2:40 run, while last year’s winner Trevor Wurtele had great start of the day but struggled to hold on to his great position on the run fading to fourth.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 00:50:56 04:31:34 02:51:17 08:16:10 -02:19
2 Jeff Symonds CAN 00:50:59 04:51:15 02:40:34 08:25:22 -11:35
3 Paul Ambrose GBR 00:50:58 04:41:05 02:58:16 08:33:10 -06:48
4 Trevor Wurtele CAN 00:51:04 04:41:38 03:07:27 08:42:59 -07:36
5 Andrew Drobeck USA 01:06:20 04:49:19 02:51:51 08:50:32 n/a
6 Matt Lieto USA 00:51:06 04:54:23 03:03:43 08:53:09 -16:13
7 Matthew Russell USA 00:59:08 04:52:31 03:09:51 09:05:45 20:06
8 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 00:56:51 05:06:06 03:07:05 09:13:14 -08:42
  Devon Palmer USA 00:53:57     DNF  
  Anthony Toth CAN 00:58:53 05:20:05   DNF  

Female Race Results

The women’s race was quite a nail biter: The Top 4 came off the bike within two minutes. Bree Wee was statistically the worst runner of the front pack, but needed a win to get enough points for Kona. With her known fightings spirit, she gave it everything and was elated to take the win. Karen Thibodeau and Mackenzie Madison finished on the podium, leaving only fourth place to Jackie Arendt.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Bree Wee USA 00:56:15 05:29:07 03:17:41 09:46:58 07:50
2 Karen Thibodeau CAN 00:55:59 05:29:19 03:22:52 09:51:35 -10:47
3 Mackenzie Madison USA 00:58:53 05:25:05 03:24:45 09:52:46 11:10
4 Jackie Arendt USA 00:56:19 05:31:26 03:27:46 09:59:06 15:04
5 Anna Cleaver NZL 00:53:09 05:43:39 03:24:57 10:05:23 n/a
6 Christine Fletcher CAN 00:58:29 05:37:11 03:35:10 10:14:21 04:50
7 Jenni Plane USA 01:02:49 06:40:30 04:53:21 12:43:17 00:57
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