Race Conditions

Even with the usual large number of sub-8 and sub-9 finishes, with an adjustment of 14:20 this year was a relatively slow race for the fast Roth standard (new course rating of 19:13).

Male Race Results

Timo Bracht fulfilled one of his dreams and won Roth. He had to work hard for it – after a great swim he rode with the second group and then hunted down long-time leader Nils Frommhold with a fantastic 2:44 run. Nils had a great day as well, and a 2:54 marathon after a 4:15 bike had him miss a sub-8 finish by seconds. Eneko Llanos finished third, he ran a solid sub-3 marathon without being really pushed. Joe Gambles had a great race with a strong run, James Cunnama struggled with stomach issues on the marathon (still sub-3), Dirk Bockel couldn’t quite deliver on the run, and Michael Rünz had a great first Ironman. So many great results, also opening up lots of interesting speculations for Kona.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Timo Bracht	GER	00:48:58	04:19:59	02:44:32	07:56:00	-13:56
2	Nils Frommhold	GER	00:48:39	04:15:16	02:54:03	08:00:39	-08:04
3	Eneko Llanos	ESP	00:49:02	04:19:54	02:57:35	08:09:29	00:38
4	Joe Gambles	AUS	00:48:47	04:23:05	02:55:36	08:10:10	-13:58
5	James Cunnama	ZAF	00:49:03	04:20:16	02:59:49	08:11:44	-14:19
6	Dirk Bockel	LUX	00:48:44	04:20:07	03:11:20	08:22:41	15:32
7	Michael Rünz	GER	00:52:17	04:35:57	02:52:20	08:23:44	n/a
8	Andrej Vistica	CRO	00:53:05	04:34:58	02:57:03	08:28:26	-12:07
9	Roeland Smits	NED	00:52:47	04:36:46	02:56:50	08:29:20	-24:50
10	Luke McKenzie	AUS	00:52:36	04:18:25	03:23:39	08:37:33	11:20
11	Michael Wetzel	GER	00:57:01	04:38:48	03:00:15	08:39:01	-20:02
12	Dirk Wijnalda	NED	00:55:58	04:35:59	03:06:38	08:41:29	-19:49
13	Sebastian Bleisteiner	GER	00:52:22	04:42:51	03:09:38	08:48:22	n/a
14	Per Bittner	GER	00:49:04	04:27:51	03:39:41	08:59:36	22:48
15	Joseph Spindler	GER	00:59:51	04:33:54	03:32:12	09:08:55	14:37
16	Thomas Naasz	NED	00:56:39	04:51:13	03:20:20	09:11:41	-02:09
17	Harri Sokk	EST	00:57:14	04:37:48	03:33:52	09:12:54	-02:16
18	Andreas Niedrig	GER	00:48:54	04:27:18	04:04:55	09:24:51	24:53
19	Pete Jacobs	AUS	00:48:42	04:45:15	03:54:54	09:32:25	1:08:22
20	Nis Lind	DEN	00:59:42	04:53:19	04:28:04	10:28:23	57:11

Female Race Results

The women’s race shaped up to be a trial run for Kona with the „Big Four“ in women’s Ironman racing going head-to-head. At the front, it was a repeat of Kona, with Mirinda Carfrae running down Rachel Joyce who finished second. Caroline Steffen is still looking for the perfect bike/run balance, she lost a bit of time to Rachel and Rinnie, and then had a solid 3:05 marathon – which is no longer good enough to win in a world class field. However, she seems to be focused on Kona, and we’ll see what she can deliver in October! Yvonne Van Vlerken is probably happy with fourth place. Her swim is not quite yet where it was before her shoulder injury, she posted the fastest bike and then lost a bit of time on the run – still finishing sub-9! As with Xena, I’m looking forward to what she can do in Kona. Julia Gajer posted another solid Roth race – but a time just over 9 hours was only good for 5th place. She struggled a bit on the bike, but then posted the second fastest marathon time – just wait till she has a race with a good bike (such as Texas) and a good run (such as Roth)! 

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Mirinda Carfrae	AUS	00:55:24	04:46:48	02:53:27	08:38:53	-18:04
2	Rachel Joyce	GBR	00:52:43	04:43:11	03:03:21	08:42:25	-16:17
3	Caroline Steffen	SUI	00:52:08	04:48:14	03:05:05	08:48:42	-10:10
4	Yvonne Van Vlerken	NED	00:59:24	04:42:17	03:14:40	08:59:36	-00:21
5	Julia Gajer	GER	00:52:26	05:03:05	03:02:08	09:00:50	-06:23
6	Diana Riesler	GER	00:59:06	04:43:02	03:27:58	09:13:16	-12:30
7	Michelle Vesterby	DEN	00:52:10	04:56:47	03:21:43	09:13:23	-05:34
8	Simone Maier	GER	01:02:35	05:00:57	03:23:17	09:31:24	-08:16
9	Daniela Saemmler	GER	00:55:38	05:01:14	03:37:31	09:37:46	18:49
10	Ana Casares	ESP	01:11:00	05:04:46	03:21:01	09:41:14	-16:42
11	Joyce Wolfe	IRL	01:00:05	05:18:28	03:24:30	09:47:03	01:55
12	Lina-kristin Schink	GER	01:10:31	05:17:22	03:32:07	10:03:44	n/a
13	Tracy Douglas	AUS	01:06:19	05:14:50	03:42:35	10:07:33	10:46
14	Heleen Bij De Vaate	NED	01:06:22	05:00:20	04:00:48	10:10:50	32:43
15	Yvette Grice	GBR	00:55:37	05:26:50	04:11:27	10:38:28	51:41
16	Sirlet Viilas	EST	01:06:26	05:49:29	03:55:52	10:56:03	n/a
17	Ann Ciaverella	USA	01:06:31	05:54:02	04:49:32	11:54:53	1:29:01

Race Conditions

This year’s race was very slow (adjustment of -4:18), even for the normally slow course in the UK (new course rating 2:17). This was mainly caused by a very slow bike (adjustment of -15:16) – even strong bike riders barely finished under five hours.

Male Race Results

After narrowing the gap to eventual fourth place finisher Axel Zeebroek on the bike, Cyril Viennot quickly took the lead on the run and cruised to a solid win. Home favorite Joe Skipper had a fantastic run to finish second, and Kirill Korshegarov took the last spot on the podium.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Cyril Viennot	FRA	00:51:15	04:50:48	02:57:35	08:44:10	01:16
2	Joe Skipper	GBR	00:51:17	05:04:04	02:48:20	08:48:12	-13:40
3	Kirill Kotshegarov	EST	00:51:14	04:58:58	02:55:41	08:51:01	-01:22
4	Axel Zeebroek	BEL	00:46:51	04:53:38	03:08:55	08:53:37	-02:51
5	Joerie Vansteelant	BEL	00:58:04	04:53:33	03:02:04	08:58:06	n/a
6	Markus Thomschke	GER	00:51:17	05:03:06	03:09:29	09:08:48	00:45
7	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	00:55:05	05:05:13	03:07:26	09:12:45	09:34
8	Victor Debil-Caux	FRA	00:55:01	05:00:23	03:19:29	09:19:17	-00:30
9	Scott Neyedli	GBR	00:49:36	05:11:32	03:20:06	09:25:51	25:05
10	James Brown	GBR	01:00:06	05:20:51	03:16:39	09:41:46	10:54
11	Anders Wagner	DEN	01:03:00	05:30:01	03:12:05	09:51:27	18:39
	Georg Potrebitsch	GER	00:49:34	05:04:29		DNF
	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	00:46:51			DNF
	Mike Aigroz	SUI	00:49:34			DNF
	Craig Twigg	GBR	00:51:12			DNF
	Steve Clark	GBR	00:57:43			DNF

Female Race Results

Tamsin Lewis had a fantastic first Ironman race – taking the lead on the bike and never looking in problems on the run. Katja Koschak collected some valuable KPR points, while Jo Carritt added another UK podium to her resume.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Tamsin Lewis	GBR	00:55:07	05:33:14	03:18:04	09:52:12	n/a
2	Katja Konschak	GER	00:51:17	05:59:02	03:14:34	10:11:25	08:18
3	Joanna Carritt	GBR	01:00:09	05:42:46	03:33:35	10:21:14	-04:15
4	Amy Forshaw	GBR	01:02:03	06:02:49	03:23:34	10:35:19	-07:32
5	Laura Bostock	GBR	01:01:00	06:31:41	04:56:55	12:36:42	45:14

Update (July 23rd): Matt Hanson will not be starting, he’s decided to focus on qualifying for Kona 2015. In addition, Jozsef Major won’t race.

Update (July 25th): As I suspected, Amanda Stevens will not be racing. She’s probably focusing on Kona already!

You can submit your own top picks on IM Predictions for a chance to win some nice prizes!

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Pierre Lavoie (CAN)	09:27:22	Heather Fuhr (USA)	09:45:06
2006	Victor Zyemtsev (USA)	08:38:18	Hollie Kenney (USA)	10:50:42
2007	Alex McDonald (USA)	09:16:02	Belinda Granger (AUS)	09:40:20
2008	Francisco Pontano (ARG)	08:43:32	Caitlin Snow (USA)	09:51:00
2009	Maik Twelsiek (GER)	08:36:37	Tereza Macel (CZE)	09:29:36
2010	Ben Hoffman (USA)	08:39:34	Amy Marsh (USA)	09:27:30
2011	TJ Tollakson (USA)	08:25:15	Heather Wurtele (CAN)	09:19:03
2012	Andy Potts (USA)	08:25:07	Jessie Donavan (USA)	09:47:39
2013	Andy Potts (USA)	08:43:29	Jennie Hansen (USA)	09:35:06

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Andy Potts	USA	00:46:48	04:48:33	03:02:41	08:43:29
2	Daniel Fontana	ITA	00:49:23	04:56:21	02:58:00	08:48:29
3	Ian Mikelson	USA	00:49:55	05:02:43	02:53:41	08:51:07

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Jennie Hansen	USA	01:03:16	05:20:25	03:05:04	09:35:06
2	Katy Blakemore	USA	00:52:05	05:32:12	03:12:31	09:42:35
3	Carrie Lester	AUS	00:55:17	05:23:29	03:23:10	09:47:59

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:25:07	Andy Potts	2012-07-22
Swim	overall	00:45:01	Andy Potts	2012-07-22
Bike	overall	04:33:33	TJ Tollakson	2011-07-24
Run	overall	02:48:20	Victor Zyemtsev	2006-07-23
Total	female	09:19:03	Heather Wurtele	2011-07-24
Swim	female	00:50:48	Tereza Macel	2009-07-26
Bike	female	05:07:44	Amy Marsh	2010-07-25
Run	female	02:57:05	Caitlin Snow	2009-07-26

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Lake Placid is – 02:37.

Race Adjustments for IM Lake Placid

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2005	04:36	01:42	-17:09	15:06	8	04:36	01:42	-17:09	15:06
2006	-16:12	00:30	-13:47	-06:50	22	-05:48	01:06	-15:28	04:08
2007	-11:28	00:54	-11:41	00:21	15	-07:41	01:02	-14:12	02:52
2008	-01:31	00:31	-06:08	01:07	33	-06:09	00:54	-12:11	02:26
2009	-02:30	-00:01	-08:33	-01:15	36	-05:25	00:43	-11:28	01:42
2010	02:33	-02:53	-03:47	01:49	37	-04:06	00:07	-10:11	01:43
2011	01:14	-02:56	-04:18	03:20	20	-03:20	-00:19	-09:20	01:57
2012	-00:39	00:38	-06:49	01:39	11	-03:00	-00:12	-09:02	01:54
2013	00:21	00:09	-05:15	02:22	27	-02:37	-00:10	-08:36	01:57

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Lake Placid has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	8	Kyle Buckingham	ZAF	08:35:17	08:32:47	00:48:24	04:28:52	02:56:30	(21)
2	14	Matt Hanson	USA	08:50:37	08:48:03	00:55:48	04:56:56	02:48:48	63
3	3	Pedro Gomes	POR	08:54:27	08:51:52	00:50:51	04:48:05	03:08:09	80
4	2	Jozsef Major	HUN	08:55:29	08:52:54	00:57:27	04:43:26	03:05:51	91
5	4	Joshua Rix	AUS	09:03:00	09:00:22	00:49:53	04:46:48	03:19:49	127
6	6	AJ Baucco	USA	09:03:20	09:00:42	unrated	04:53:31	03:09:13	132
7	21	Jonathan Shearon	USA	09:03:26	09:00:48	00:53:34	04:46:17	03:14:41	133
8	12	Balazs Csoke	HUN	09:06:37	09:03:58	00:48:07	04:50:44	03:20:32	141
9	9	James Chesson	USA	09:08:18	09:05:39	00:55:54	04:50:12	03:05:09	(152)
10	10	Ryan Cain	CAN	09:16:15	09:13:34	00:55:59	05:03:31	03:08:08	187
11	23	Patrick Wheeler	USA	09:20:48	09:18:05	00:56:04	05:07:19	03:07:36	196
12	11	Greg Close	USA	09:30:41	09:27:55	00:58:05	05:04:24	03:12:55	(235)
13	15	Vinny Johnson	USA	09:32:08	09:29:22	00:53:18	05:09:47	03:10:04	(244)
14	22	Jesse Vondracek	USA	09:37:08	09:34:21	00:55:42	05:12:17	03:19:15	263
15	7	Raymond Botelho	USA	09:38:26	09:35:38	00:54:48	04:56:05	03:37:02	267
16	20	Kyle Pawlaczyk	USA	09:39:26	09:36:38	00:55:32	05:11:25	03:24:48	269
17	17	Jim Lubinski	USA	09:50:13	09:47:22	01:03:24	05:18:00	03:20:52	314
18	16	Peter Kotland	USA	10:01:34	09:58:39	00:57:17	05:19:08	03:33:48	361
19	18	Simon Malo	CAN	10:02:39	09:59:44	00:57:21	05:06:48	03:44:02	(364)
	5	Felipe Aguayo	CHE	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	13	Andrew Fast	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	19	Tomas Martinek	CZE	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	41	Kim Schwabenbauer	USA	09:40:51	09:38:02	01:02:39	05:15:24	03:14:55	37
2	38	Lisa Roberts	USA	09:41:11	09:38:22	01:03:56	05:15:48	03:11:21	40
3	31	Amanda Stevens	USA	09:46:29	09:43:39	00:49:32	05:20:05	03:28:59	48
4	32	Amber Ferreira	USA	09:57:37	09:54:44	00:54:57	05:29:11	03:26:30	76
5	34	Jessica Meyers	USA	10:00:06	09:57:12	00:59:50	05:23:17	03:23:16	(87)
6	33	Rachel Jastrebsky	USA	10:22:00	10:19:00	01:00:53	05:34:26	03:35:44	128
7	44	Kristyn Tobey	BMU	10:39:44	10:36:38	01:08:33	05:31:10	03:42:46	(144)
8	36	Leslie Lamacchia	USA	10:49:50	10:46:41	01:08:45	05:35:40	03:47:34	(151)
9	40	Robin Sandos	USA	11:13:06	11:09:51	00:58:50	05:42:44	04:04:28	(158)
10	35	Amanda Kourtz	USA	11:14:28	11:11:12	01:15:05	05:22:32	04:14:42	(158)
	37	Kristin Lemos	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	43	Kathryn Thomas	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	39	Darbi Roberts	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on my predictions, it does not look to well for another US winner in Lake Placid. The odds are lead by Pedro Gomes (who took things a bit easier after qualifying for Kona), followed Kyle Buckingham (who had great first Pro Ironman by finishing 2nd in his home race in South Africa). Matt Hanson is probably the US athlete with the best chances, he’s had two great results earlier this year: 6th in Texas and 5th in Coeur d’Alene, posting the fastest run splits in both of them.

• Pedro Gomes: 35% (2-1)
• Kyle Buckingham: 20% (4-1)
• Jozsef Major: 14% (6-1)
• Matt Hanson: 13% (7-1)
• Joshua Rix: 7% (12-1)
• Balazs Csoke: 5% (19-1)
• Jonathan Shearon: 3% (34-1)

Female Race Participants

A US win is almost assured on the women’s side: There is only one non-US pro on the start list. Amanda will probably lead the race for most of the day, but Lisa, Kim and Amber will make the race interesting on the run.

• Amanda Stevens: 40% (2-1)
• Lisa Roberts: 31% (2-1)
• Kim Schwabenbauer: 17% (5-1)
• Amber Ferreira: 9% (11-1)
• Jessica Meyers: 3% (36-1)

The Race for Seventh

DarkMark, TheRealStarky and Pay10Deep are raising money to pay the 7th finishers in the men’s and women’s race at Ironman Lake Placid. They have asked me to analyze the athlete’s chances for a seventh place finish. In addition, Luke and I are helping them to increase awareness for the issue of small professional prize purses in Ironman races by offering a special version of IM Predicitions allowing you to pick the 7th finisher in the Lake Placid Pro races.

Men

Here are the athletes with the best chances to finish seventh:

• Raymond Botelho: 11% (8-1)
• Greg Close: 11% (8-1)
• AJ Baucco: 9% (10-1)
• Joshua Rix: 9% (10-1)
• Ryan Cain: 8% (11-1)
• Patrick Wheeler: 8% (11-1)

Women

The women’s side is a lot trickier – with only 13 athletes on the start list, there could be less than seven finishers. (Actually, „no one“ is my most probable prediction at about 30%, but my models aren’t well calibrated for these predicting the number of finishes.) Here are the likeliest seventh finishers:

• Leslie Lamacchia: 10% (9-1)
• Kristin Lemos: 9% (10-1)
• Kathryn Thomas: 9% (10-1)
• Darbi Roberts: 9% (10-1)
• Kristyn Tobey: 7% (12-1)

KPR Situation

Men

Not too many athletes from Lake Placid are contending for a July Kona slot. Kyle Buckingham is the one with the most points, but at 2.024 he would need a second or better to get to my projected cutoff at 3.500 points. Matt Hanson (1.480) and Pedro Gomes (1.440) could also make it with a win.

Women

Amanda Stevens should already be safe for a Kona slot – she sits at 5.175 points and my projected cutoff is at 4.900. Lisa Roberts (4.005) and Kim Schwabenbauer (3.450) should be able to get a Kona slot with a good placing (4th and 2nd respectively). Amber Ferreira (2.425 points) is already too far back to be able to qualify in July.

You can submit your own top picks on IM Predictions for a chance to win some nice prizes!

Previous Winners

Last year was the first time that IM Canada was held on its new course in Whistler.

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2013	Trevor Wurtele (CAN)	08:39:33	Uli Bromme (USA)	09:28:13

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Trevor Wurtele	CAN	00:54:27	04:46:51	02:54:31	08:39:33
2	Matthew Russell	USA	00:58:13	04:42:53	03:00:12	08:45:15
3	Paul Amey	GBR	00:51:07	04:55:51	03:02:19	08:53:27

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Uli Bromme	USA	01:03:02	05:13:51	03:06:53	09:28:13
2	Lisa Roberts	USA	01:03:04	05:22:10	03:08:53	09:38:34
3	Gillian Moody	CAN	00:56:51	05:29:16	03:18:39	09:49:09

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:39:33	Trevor Wurtele	2013-08-25
Swim	overall	00:48:45	Bryan Rhodes	2013-08-25
Bike	overall	04:42:53	Matthew Russell	2013-08-25
Run	overall	02:52:44	Mike Schifferle	2013-08-25
Total	female	09:28:13	Uli Bromme	2013-08-25
Swim	female	00:55:13	Christine Hammond	2013-08-25
Bike	female	05:13:51	Uli Bromme	2013-08-25
Run	female	03:06:53	Uli Bromme	2013-08-25

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Canada is 03:14.

Race Adjustments for IM Canada

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2013	03:14	-00:01	-01:14	03:20	19	03:14	-00:01	-01:14	03:20

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Canada has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	2	Marino Vanhoenacker	BEL	08:21:54	08:24:55	00:48:33	04:32:01	02:59:04	8
2	11	Jeff Symonds	CAN	08:40:22	08:43:30	00:51:04	04:41:47	02:55:07	(54)
3		Paul Ambrose	GBR	08:43:28	08:46:37	00:48:21	04:40:06	03:13:39	59
4	3	Matthew Russell	USA	08:49:32	08:52:43	01:00:20	04:46:21	02:58:38	90
5	1	Trevor Wurtele	CAN	08:54:08	08:57:21	00:54:02	04:47:54	03:09:44	111
6	5	Matt Lieto	USA	09:12:56	09:16:16	00:52:23	04:49:55	03:26:40	194
7	10	Anthony Toth	CAN	09:22:27	09:25:50	00:57:34	05:00:34	03:18:10	224
8	6	Stephen Kilshaw	CAN	09:25:41	09:29:06	00:55:14	05:02:15	03:26:18	243
	7	Andrew Drobeck	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	21	Bree Wee	USA	09:43:13	09:46:44	00:54:01	05:19:07	03:26:30	57
2	25	Mackenzie Madison	USA	09:45:45	09:49:17	01:02:36	05:22:51	03:15:35	65
3	20	Jackie Arendt	USA	09:48:15	09:51:48	00:55:05	05:28:03	03:21:05	71
5	23	Karen Thibodeau	CAN	10:06:23	10:10:02	00:55:00	05:27:50	03:25:48	(106)
6	26	Christine Fletcher	CAN	10:13:46	10:17:28	00:59:15	05:27:32	03:43:16	125
7	27	Jenni Plane	USA	12:47:35	12:52:13	01:02:32	06:25:46	04:45:10	(162)
	24	Anna Cleaver	NZL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Trevor Wurtele is the defending champion, but it won’t be easy to repeat. My favorite is Marino Vanhoenacker who seems to be finding his way back to his great form from the 2012 season. In addition, Trevor faces Matthew Russell (who battled with him for most of he 2013 race) and Jeff Symonds who’d love to follow his win on the old course (now Challenge Penticton) with a win on the new Ironman Canada course.

• Marino Vanhoenacker: 55% (1-1)
• Trevor Wurtele: 20% (4-1)
• Jeff Symonds: 11% (8-1)
• Matthew Russell: 8% (12-1)

Female Race Participants

This race promises to be an interesting race for the final KPR July slots: Bree Wee and Jackie Arendt are not too far off the mark, and a win will probably give them enough points for a Kona slot. Bree Wee is my pre-race favorite – she will race from the front and give everything she has. Jackie Arendt is strong enough to battle it out with Bree. If Mackenzie finds her great 2011 form, she might offer a surprise.

• Bree Wee: 35% (2-1)
• Mackenzie Madison: 25% (3-1)
• Jackie Arendt: 24% (3-1)
• Karen Thibodeau: 4% (25-1)

KPR Situation

Men

There are three athletes that are in still in the race for KPR points: Matthew Russell (3.615 points) should already have enough points to qualify – he can further improve his total by finishing at least 8th. Marino Vanhoenacker is currently at 2.920 points, he needs about 600 points to get to my projected cutoff at 3.500 points. This means that he has to aim to finish 5th or higher. Paul Ambrose is a late entry tp Canada, he’s currently at 2.055 points and would able to qualify with a second place. Last year’S winner Trevor Wurtele with 1.965 points is also able to score enough points for a slot, but he has already indicated that he is not interested in racing Kona this year.

Women

My projected cutoff for the women is at 4.900 points which makes it quite hard for the participants to reach this number. Heather Jackson (4.260 points) would have had the best chances – but she is missing from the latest start list. Bree Wee (3.250 points) and Jackie Arendt (2.925) might be able to qualify with a win, but as they already have five results (and their worst result would get bumped from their total score) qualifying will be very close even with a win.

You can submit your own top picks on IM Predictions for a chance to win some nice prizes!
Update (July 22nd): There have been a few changes to the start list. Most notably, Natascha Badmann and Kristin Möller have been added to the women’s field – also changing the situation for the July KPR cutoff. (Thanks to Angela Naeth for letting me know that my data was outdated!)

Update (July 25th): Based on information I received from the Pro meeting, there is another interesting late addition: Daniela Ryf will be racing IM Switzerland as a “long training day”. She’s now being coached by Brett Sutton – you never know what he’ll be able to achieve with his athletes.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Christoph Mauch (SUI)	08:21:48	Karin Thuerig (SUI)	09:10:51
2006	Mathias Hecht (SUI)	08:26:01	Rebecca Preston (AUS)	09:24:18
2007	Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI)	08:24:58	Rebecca Preston (AUS)	09:20:40
2008	Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI)	08:16:05	Sibylle Matter (SUI)	09:30:12
2009	Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI)	08:20:00	Sibylle Matter (SUI)	09:14:35
2010	Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI)	08:12:40	Karin Thuerig (SUI)	09:00:04
2011	Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI)	08:19:51	Karin Thuerig (SUI)	09:03:26
2012	Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI)	08:17:13	Erika Csomor (HUN)	09:20:16
2013	Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI)	08:33:39	Anja Beranek (GER)	09:21:31

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Ronnie Schildknecht	SUI	00:55:59	04:32:16	03:01:59	08:33:39
2	Ivan Rana	ESP	00:52:37	04:45:57	02:59:09	08:40:55
3	Per Bittner	GER	00:55:47	04:49:07	02:57:54	08:46:23

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Anja Beranek	GER	00:58:21	04:56:23	03:22:55	09:21:31
2	Celine Schaerer	SUI	00:52:38	05:06:57	03:24:09	09:28:28
3	Erika Csomor	HUN	01:01:21	05:10:12	03:17:24	09:33:17

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:12:40	Ronnie Schildknecht	2010-07-25
Swim	overall	00:45:29	Benjamin Sanson	2005-07-15
Bike	overall	04:27:42	Ronnie Schildknecht	2012-07-15
Run	overall	02:41:58	Clemente Alonso-McKernan	2011-07-10
Total	female	09:00:04	Karin Thuerig	2010-07-25
Swim	female	00:51:35	Alison Hayden	2005-07-15
Bike	female	04:43:53	Karin Thuerig	2010-07-25
Run	female	03:04:24	Karin Thuerig	2010-07-25

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Switzerland is 07:57.

Race Adjustments for IM Switzerland

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2005	-03:50	00:25	02:46	-07:19	6	-03:50	00:25	02:46	-07:19
2006	15:12	01:09	04:34	00:02	21	05:41	00:47	03:40	-03:39
2007	16:41	-00:58	10:09	01:36	25	09:21	00:12	05:50	-01:54
2008	08:49	-00:10	01:43	01:50	22	09:13	00:06	04:48	-00:58
2009	12:50	-00:57	05:50	05:19	30	09:56	-00:06	05:00	00:18
2010	07:14	-01:25	05:36	01:59	27	09:29	-00:19	05:06	00:34
2011	11:01	-02:31	00:56	07:24	17	09:42	-00:38	04:31	01:33
2012	08:30	-03:10	04:02	02:18	24	09:33	-00:57	04:27	01:39
2013	-04:50	-05:13	02:43	-05:08	35	07:57	-01:26	04:15	00:53

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Switzerland has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	1	Pete Jacobs	AUS	08:31:36	08:39:15	00:47:22	04:43:08	03:03:47	42
2	10	David Plese	SLO	08:34:20	08:42:02	00:53:26	04:43:39	02:57:46	49
3	11	Filip Ospaly	CZE	08:35:05	08:42:47	00:46:44	04:47:54	02:49:15	(53)
4	8	Michael Goehner	GER	08:42:09	08:49:58	00:53:39	04:45:08	03:03:43	71
5	7	Stephen Bayliss	GBR	08:42:22	08:50:11	00:47:51	04:50:00	03:05:53	72
6	2	Jan Van Berkel	SUI	08:43:16	08:51:06	00:48:11	04:40:56	03:16:07	76
7	3	Georg Potrebitsch	GER	08:44:40	08:52:31	00:48:50	04:51:16	03:11:41	87
8	20	Darby Thomas	FIN	08:44:42	08:52:33	00:57:15	04:45:41	03:00:03	88
9	12	Joe Skipper	GBR	08:49:45	08:57:40	00:53:50	04:47:19	03:04:48	113
(9)	34	Alejandro Santamaria	ESP	08:49:57	08:57:53	00:54:48	04:54:33	03:03:23	114
10	4	Mathias Hecht	SUI	08:50:11	08:58:07	00:49:06	04:51:09	03:12:18	(116)
11	9	Sergio Marques	POR	08:55:16	09:03:16	00:55:31	05:04:34	03:00:15	138
12	6	Mike Schifferle	SUI	08:56:03	09:04:04	01:00:35	04:50:53	03:05:48	143
13	5	Boris Stein	GER	08:56:15	09:04:16	00:56:44	04:38:39	03:07:16	(145)
14	29	Daniel Niederreiter	AUT	08:58:02	09:06:05	00:52:10	04:54:51	03:11:34	(155)
(15)	32	Vincent Riess	AUT	08:58:47	09:06:50	00:53:45	05:56:55	02:58:31	159
(16)	33	Bertrand Billard	FRA	09:00:26	09:08:31	00:48:02	04:41:11	03:17:38	(163)
15	15	Reto Stutz	SUI	09:03:35	09:11:43	00:56:57	04:44:14	03:17:27	(177)
16	21	Gabriele Mazzetta	ITA	09:07:08	09:15:19	00:51:55	04:59:10	03:12:21	(190)
17	19	Tomas Mika	CZE	09:24:16	09:32:42	00:52:27	05:16:09	03:09:53	(257)
18	28	Stefan Eichheimer	GER	09:26:28	09:34:56	00:57:35	04:56:32	03:18:44	(264)
19	30	Daniel Mueller	GER	09:30:04	09:38:36	00:51:15	05:05:44	03:37:50	282
20	18	David Jilek	CZE	09:42:33	09:51:16	00:58:18	04:57:43	03:33:24	(330)
21	24	Ludovic Le Guellec	FRA	09:54:45	10:03:39	01:00:05	05:22:20	03:32:09	371
22	17	Remmert Wielinga	NED	10:13:04	10:22:14	01:17:55	04:52:30	03:49:43	(417)
23	22	Marek Nemcik	SVK	11:52:18	12:02:57	01:11:45	05:56:37	04:43:06	452
24	27	Josef Svoboda	CZE	11:58:05	12:08:49	01:12:22	06:08:08	04:30:39	453
	16	Dominic Rohan-Gates	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	23	Eduardo Crooke Gonzalez	ESP	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	25	Roland Schlappal	AUT	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	26	Mauro Baertsch	SUI	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
(1)	58	Natascha Badmann	SUI	09:19:36	09:27:58	01:01:05	05:02:13	03:16:35	16
1	54	Sonja Tajsich	GER	09:22:54	09:31:19	01:01:43	05:12:55	03:09:21	22
2	52	Erika Csomor	HUN	09:23:05	09:31:30	00:57:55	05:13:47	03:13:21	23
3	51	Celine Schaerer	SUI	09:26:14	09:34:42	00:47:38	05:09:46	03:18:38	(32)
(5)	59	Kristin Moeller	GER	09:27:06	09:35:35	01:03:31	05:19:35	03:06:11	32
4		Astrid Ganzow	GER	09:46:14	09:55:00	00:58:32	05:09:46	03:31:50	(79)
5	66	Michaela Rudolf	AUT	09:47:31	09:56:18	01:05:09	05:12:47	03:30:04	83
6	53	Regula Rohrbach	SUI	09:47:31	09:56:18	00:57:33	05:10:23	03:37:33	83
7	60	Nicole Klingler	GER	10:03:52	10:12:54	01:06:10	05:30:59	03:33:57	(113)
8	62	Saleta Castro	ESP	10:04:20	10:13:22	00:56:19	05:28:10	03:40:00	113
9	65	Katharina Grohmann	GER	10:04:34	10:13:36	01:14:22	05:26:24	03:21:40	114
10	55	Evi Neuscheler	GER	10:13:39	10:22:50	01:07:18	05:17:49	03:32:34	(133)
11	68	Monique Grossrieder	SUI	10:14:50	10:24:02	01:05:22	05:37:27	03:29:21	133
12	64	Nicole Woysch	GER	10:16:04	10:25:17	00:58:35	05:30:28	03:47:39	136
13	61	Vanessa Pereira	POR	10:30:21	10:39:47	01:02:49	05:40:03	03:37:34	(149)
14	63	Megumi Shigaki	JPN	10:43:59	10:53:37	00:59:12	05:41:39	04:04:48	154
	67	Sabrina Mohn	SUI	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	56	Carolin Lehrieder	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
		Daniela Ryf	SUI	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The biggest name on the start list is Pete Jacobs – just one week after Roth he will try to validate his automatic Kona slot by just finishing. Even though he is the statistical odds-on favorite, I don’t see him to contend for the win. Mathias Hecht and Jan Van Berkel will try to continue the Swiss winning streak, but they face strong competition from Eastern European David Plese and Filip Ospaly, British Stephen Bayliss and German athletes Georg Potrebitsch and Michael Goehner.

• Pete Jacobs: 29% (2-1)
• David Plese: 14% (6-1)
• Mathias Hecht: 11% (8-1)
• Stephen Bayliss: 10% (9-1)
• Filip Ospaly: 9% (10-1)
• Georg Potrebitsch: 9% (10-1)
• Michael Goehner: 6% (14-1)
• Sergio Marques: 6% (16-1)
• Jan Van Berkel: 5% (21-1)

Female Race Participants

On the women’s side, Erika Csomor has to be considered the favorite – she’s doing her „normal“ Austria – Switzerland double. Sonja Tajsich is still on the start list, but after her disappointing race in Frankfurt she’s probably a non-start. Similar to the men, Celine Schaerer and Regula Rohrbach will try to win another edition for their home country.

• Erika Csomor: 38% (2-1)
• Sonja Tajsich: 38% (2-1)
• Celine Schaerer: 13% (6-1)
• Regula Rohrbach: 7% (13-1)

Assessing the impact of Natascha and Kristin is tricky. As for Sonja, they have raced in Frankfurt and are probably not yet fully recovered. However, both just need a few extra KPR points, so they seem to be willing to risk a start so soon after their last IM. They might have a great day, but will probably not contend for the win. 

KPR Situation

Men

As noted above, Pete Jacobs just has has to finish to validate his automatic Kona slot.

After him, there are two athletes in a good position to qualify in July: David Plese (3.325) and Filip Ospaly (3.170) just need a few hundred additional points, so a 7th place should be enough for either of them. Behind them, Stephen Bayliss (1.690), Michael Geoehner (1.590) and Boris Stein (1.500) would need a win to get to the cutoff number – not very likely. Other athletes – such as Jan Van Berkel (1.215) – are already too far back, but they could use the points to increase their chances for an August slot.

Women

On the women’s side there is no athlete that can get to my projected cutoff of 4.900 points. The best placed athlete is Erika Csomor at 2.460 points.

The addition of Natascha and Kristin make Switzerland a lot more interesting from a KPR perspective. Kristin (4.790) just needs few hundred extra points to be really sure of a slot, so 10th is probably enough for her. Natascha has 3.755 points and needs at least 1.000 points to get a slot.  A 4th place (960 points) might be enough, but a 3rd (1.280 points) would be better.

Daniela Ryf (late entry) is an athlete that I had so far in the “not interested” category. She has already scored 2.810 points just from 70.3s, so winning the race might get her very close to the qualifying threshold. I have no idea whether this is a reasonable goal for her, but she is trained by Brett Sutton and he wouldn’t let her race if she wasn’t ready for it.