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New Episode of IM Predictions Podcast with Rachel Joyce

JoyceBikeSideLong

The latest Episode of the IM Predictions Podcast has been released. This week, I’ve had the chance to chat with Rachel Joyce, one of the big names in the Challenge Roth race. She talked about her development as a Professional athlete, why Roth is such a special race and her preparations for the highlight races in Roth and later this year in Kona. She also offered her Top 3 picks for the men’s race.

Photo Credit: Jay Prasuhn

Challenge Roth 2014 (July 20th) – Predictions

Update (July 11th): I somehow missed Erik-Simon Strijk in the start list – thanks to Erik-Simon for letting me know. I’ve added him to the table.

With Roth, the biggest of the non-WTC Ironman-distance races is coming up – and what a field they managed to put together!

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Chris McCormack (AUS) 07:58:45 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:14:06
2006 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:00:52 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:01:17
2007 Chris McCormack (AUS) 07:54:23 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 08:51:55
2008 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:09:34 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 08:45:48
2009 Michael Goehner (GER) 07:55:53 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:31:59
2010 Rasmus Henning (DEN) 07:52:36 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:19:13
2011 Andreas Raelert (GER) 07:41:33 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:18:13
2012 James Cunnama (ZAF) 07:59:59 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:45:04
2013 Dirk Bockel (LUX) 07:52:01 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 08:40:35

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Dirk Bockel LUX 00:46:05 04:15:05 02:48:41 07:52:01
2 James Cunnama ZAF 00:48:38 04:23:46 02:49:16 08:04:13
3 Timo Bracht GER 00:48:31 04:32:09 02:44:55 08:08:18

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Caroline Steffen SUI 00:51:45 04:42:21 03:03:07 08:40:35
2 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 00:54:40 04:39:35 03:09:33 08:46:22
3 Julia Gajer GER 00:51:48 04:56:35 02:59:55 08:51:04

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:41:33 Andreas Raelert 2011-07-10
Swim overall 00:45:57 Pete Jacobs 2009-07-12
Bike overall 04:11:43 Andreas Raelert 2011-07-10
Run overall 02:39:43 Rasmus Henning 2010-07-18
Total female 08:18:13 Chrissie Wellington 2011-07-10
Swim female 00:47:27 Ute Mueckel 2005-06-24
Bike female 04:36:33 Chrissie Wellington 2010-07-18
Run female 02:44:35 Chrissie Wellington 2011-07-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Roth is 19:45. Traditionally, it is one of the fastest courses on the calendar. By all descriptions, the course itself is not „easy“ – there are some steep hills on the bike, but they aren’t too long and followed by long descents that allow power-riders to post fast times. The run is flat and on a crushed surface that is relatively easy on the legs.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Roth

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 18:02 01:08 13:32 05:29 9 18:02 01:08 13:32 05:29
2006 12:37 01:17 06:34 03:26 37 15:19 01:13 10:03 04:28
2007 22:56 00:52 10:30 06:52 28 17:52 01:06 10:12 05:16
2008 20:40 01:58 06:46 07:55 38 18:34 01:19 09:20 05:56
2009 26:03 02:04 14:42 05:04 41 20:04 01:28 10:25 05:45
2010 19:15 00:27 07:23 05:16 42 19:56 01:18 09:55 05:40
2011 20:55 01:49 15:23 05:18 34 20:04 01:22 10:41 05:37
2012 16:05 02:22 05:41 04:54 50 19:34 01:30 10:04 05:32
2013 21:16 00:26 13:25 04:46 37 19:45 01:23 10:26 05:27

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 1 Dirk Bockel LUX 08:02:10 08:20:29 00:46:45 04:33:21 02:56:19 2
2 9 Nils Frommhold GER 08:03:07 08:21:28 00:46:45 04:30:06 02:53:09 (3)
3 7 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:03:28 08:21:50 00:47:41 04:36:51 02:51:59 4
4 3 Timo Bracht GER 08:04:11 08:22:34 00:49:30 04:36:46 02:51:48 5
5 15 Joe Gambles AUS 08:18:14 08:37:09 00:48:08 04:39:15 03:03:24 31
6 2 James Cunnama ZAF 08:20:06 08:39:06 00:49:55 04:44:55 03:00:55 40
7 6 Pete Jacobs AUS 08:20:15 08:39:15 00:47:22 04:43:08 03:03:47 41
8 5 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:20:56 08:39:57 00:47:38 04:38:08 03:09:23 42
9 4 Markus Fachbach GER 08:23:32 08:42:39 00:49:48 04:43:09 03:04:05 (50)
10 18 Swen Sundberg GER 08:31:11 08:50:36 00:52:16 04:45:13 03:08:33 74
11 17 Per Bittner GER 08:31:41 08:51:07 00:49:57 04:52:46 03:02:02 77
12 11 Andrej Vistica CRO 08:34:31 08:54:03 00:54:22 04:46:27 03:04:59 96
13 13 Fabian Conrad GER 08:35:48 08:55:23 00:52:30 04:48:58 03:05:18 104
(14) 10 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 08:36:09 08:55:45 00:53:00 04:48:47 03:08:07 107
14 23 Joel Jameson GBR 08:36:52 08:56:30 00:56:47 04:53:45 02:57:56 109
15 20 Ritchie Nicholls GBR 08:45:58 09:05:56 00:48:57 05:01:30 02:59:24 (155)
16 8 Roeland Smits NED 08:47:39 09:07:41 00:53:03 04:51:42 03:10:06 (161)
17 22 Joseph Spindler GER 08:48:47 09:08:52 01:03:43 04:53:25 03:03:34 165
18 28 Michael Wetzel GER 08:52:35 09:12:49 00:55:50 04:58:05 03:11:57 186
19 26 Andreas Niedrig GER 08:54:39 09:14:57 00:47:13 04:55:44 03:28:39 191
20 19 Dirk Wijnalda NED 08:54:49 09:15:08 00:57:23 05:04:00 03:06:55 (192)
21 24 Thomas Naasz NED 09:07:41 09:28:29 00:54:28 04:58:08 03:17:51 (239)
22 44 Harri Sokk EST 09:08:59 09:29:50 01:01:04 04:48:32 03:18:55 (247)
23 30 Manuel Wyss SUI 09:09:02 09:29:53 00:53:03 05:16:43 03:14:30 247
24 31 Nis Lind DEN 09:26:22 09:47:53 01:00:31 05:05:03 03:24:42 (322)
25 32 Arland Macasieb PHI 09:56:56 10:19:36 01:03:19 05:27:23 03:44:30 416
12 Sylvain Sudrie FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
21 Sebastian Bleisteiner GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
42 Bart Candel NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
43 Michael Rünz GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 54 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 08:50:34 09:10:43 00:54:37 05:16:13 02:59:07 1
2 60 Rachel Joyce GBR 08:52:21 09:12:34 00:51:01 05:06:09 03:11:41 2
3 51 Caroline Steffen SUI 08:52:40 09:12:54 00:51:48 05:00:17 03:14:29 3
4 52 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 08:53:59 09:14:16 00:57:41 05:01:31 03:08:42 4
5 53 Julia Gajer GER 09:01:01 09:21:34 00:52:50 05:15:24 03:09:17 7
6 58 Rebekah Keat AUS 09:05:22 09:26:05 00:52:54 05:12:12 03:15:39 12
7 55 Anja Beranek GER 09:08:49 09:29:40 00:52:51 05:08:06 03:22:48 20
8 59 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:12:39 09:33:38 00:52:35 05:12:25 03:23:29 28
9 57 Daniela Saemmler GER 09:13:16 09:34:17 00:54:05 05:11:56 03:19:48 32
10 61 Diana Riesler GER 09:19:13 09:40:27 00:59:17 05:09:14 03:25:03 42
11 62 Heleen Bij De Vaate NED 09:32:35 09:54:20 01:05:35 05:16:36 03:26:08 76
12 64 Simone Maier GER 09:33:04 09:54:50 01:04:19 05:22:08 03:19:21 78
13 63 Joyce Wolfe IRL 09:38:44 10:00:43 01:01:21 05:32:40 03:22:52 94
14 56 Yvette Grice GBR 09:41:39 10:03:44 00:55:41 05:36:07 03:24:04 96
15 65 Tracy Douglas AUS 09:50:29 10:12:54 01:06:57 05:22:37 03:23:46 (115)
16 66 Ana Casares ESP 09:50:56 10:13:22 01:08:56 05:26:09 03:32:18 (115)
17 68 Ann Ciaverella USA 10:21:14 10:44:50 01:04:17 05:45:52 03:48:49 (152)
69 Sirlet Viilas EST n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
67 Lina-kristin Schink GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Roth Dirk

Dirk Bockel is back to defend his title and has to be considered the pre-race favorite. He is clearly able to focus on key races and deliver good performances. But he faces strong competition from a number of established athletes: Pete Jacobs hasn’t had a great performance since winning Kona 2012, Eneko Llanos who had a great 2013 season and is focusing on Roth and Kona this year, or Timo Bracht who decided to build his 2014 season around Roth. But there are also up-and-coming athletes that would love to build their career by winning this established race: Nils Frommhold who has already won two Ironman races in three starts, James Cunnama who narrowly missed the Kon podium, or Joe Gambles who is just getting started in Ironman racing.

  • Dirk Bockel: 41% (1-1)
  • Nils Frommhold: 17% (5-1)
  • Eneko Llanos: 12% (7-1)
  • Pete Jacobs: 12% (8-1)
  • James Cunnama: 9% (10-1)
  • Timo Bracht: 5% (18-1)
  • Luke McKenzie: 3% (38-1)

Female Race Participants

Roth_Xena

Calling the men’s field „strong“ I have problems coming up with a word to describe the women’s field. Other than Kona, we have not seen Mirinda Carefrae, Racel Joyce, Caroline Steffen and Yvonne Van Vlerken in one race. Add in athletes such as steadily improving Michelle Vesterby (8th in Kona 2013) and Julia Gajer (three consecutive top-3s in Roth with sub-9h finishes) and it gets impossible to predict the race. Joycee is my statistical front runner, mainly because she very rarely has an off-day in a big race.

  • Rachel Joyce: 36% (2-1)
  • Mirinda Carfrae: 27% (3-1)
  • Caroline Steffen: 21% (4-1)
  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 12% (8-1)
  • Julia Gajer: 2% (65-1)

Photo Credits: Challenge Roth

Ironman UK 2014 (July 20th) – Predictions

Update (July 17th): Pauk Hawkins tweeted that he won’t be starting and is focused on IM Sweden.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Bryan Rhodes (NZL) 08:42:11 Rebecca Preston (AUS) 09:37:56
2006 Frank Heldoorn () 08:36:34 Dede Griesbauer (USA) 09:37:41
2007 Scott Neyedli (GBR) 08:35:57 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:36:13
2008 Stephen Bayliss (GBR) 08:53:59 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:49:07
2009 Philip Graves (GBR) 08:45:52 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:34:00
2010 Fraser Cartmell (GBR) 08:40:18 Yvette Grice (GBR) 10:01:03
2011 Aaron Farlow (AUS) 08:24:34 Kristin Moeller (GER) 09:19:04
2012 Daniel Halksworth (GBR) 08:55:11 Eimear Mullan (IRL) 10:08:44
2013 Daniel Halksworth (GBR) 08:45:48 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 09:29:12

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Daniel Halksworth GBR 00:43:59 04:56:45 03:01:20 08:45:48
2 Stephen Bayliss GBR 00:44:03 04:56:50 03:04:57 08:49:25
3 Joe Skipper GBR 00:49:37 05:00:59 02:57:11 08:51:49

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Lucy Gossage GBR 00:52:30 05:22:13 03:10:22 09:29:12
2 Joanna Carritt GBR 00:55:57 05:40:36 03:24:00 10:05:17
3 Amy Forshaw GBR 00:56:27 05:54:21 03:30:15 10:28:27

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:24:34 Aaron Farlow 2011-07-31
Swim overall 00:43:35 Fraser Cartmell 2010-08-01
Bike overall 04:45:31 Frank Heldoorn 2006-08-16
Run overall 02:41:46 Aaron Farlow 2011-07-31
Total female 09:19:04 Kristin Moeller 2011-07-31
Swim female 00:45:34 Dede Griesbauer 2006-08-16
Bike female 05:19:03 Dede Griesbauer 2006-08-16
Run female 02:41:57 Kristin Moeller 2011-07-31

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM UK is 04:29.

Race Adjustments for IM UK

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 n/a n/a n/a n/a 4 n/a n/a n/a n/a
2006 10:29 04:55 04:38 06:03 18 10:29 04:55 04:38 06:03
2007 11:09 03:07 -04:13 10:14 28 10:49 04:01 00:13 08:08
2008 -01:04 01:12 -14:08 04:11 21 06:51 03:05 -04:34 06:49
2009 02:27 -03:07 -10:16 10:41 16 05:45 01:32 -06:00 07:47
2010 01:15 04:32 -24:08 09:31 12 04:51 02:08 -09:37 08:08
2011 10:58 04:43 -14:36 23:11 15 05:52 02:34 -10:27 10:38
2012 -02:46 00:00 -10:21 02:21 8 04:38 02:12 -10:26 09:27
2013 03:23 04:01 -12:25 03:14 13 04:29 02:25 -10:41 08:41

KPR points and Prize Money

IM UK has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:34:25 08:38:43 00:50:46 04:45:10 02:57:21 40
2 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 08:43:46 08:48:09 00:52:23 04:41:04 03:05:21 65
3 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:45:47 08:50:11 00:47:51 04:50:00 03:05:53 73
4 Swen Sundberg GER 08:46:12 08:50:36 00:52:16 04:45:13 03:08:33 75
5 Axel Zeebroek BEL 08:47:48 08:52:13 00:47:10 04:44:01 03:14:18 85
6 Georg Potrebitsch GER 08:48:06 08:52:31 00:48:50 04:51:16 03:11:41 88
7 Mike Aigroz SUI 08:49:57 08:54:23 00:49:07 04:44:19 03:15:41 99
8 Scott Neyedli GBR 08:51:49 08:56:16 00:50:58 04:53:56 03:02:49 109
9 Joe Skipper GBR 08:53:12 08:57:40 00:53:50 04:47:19 03:04:48 114
10 Harry Wiltshire GBR 09:07:11 09:11:46 00:47:17 04:52:27 03:28:43 179
11 Victor Debil-Caux FRA 09:10:44 09:15:20 00:53:39 04:47:55 03:16:49 (194)
12 Darren Jenkins AUS 09:17:03 09:21:43 01:03:40 05:01:31 03:00:36 (209)
13 James Brown GBR 09:21:32 09:26:14 01:01:33 05:01:24 03:13:39 231
14 Paul Hawkins GBR 09:22:41 09:27:23 00:59:08 05:32:08 03:22:42 (235)
15 Anders Wagner DEN 09:23:22 09:28:05 01:03:00 05:00:03 03:03:23 (240)
16 Craig Twigg GBR 09:33:26 09:38:14 00:53:03 04:55:59 03:39:56 282
17 Steve Clark GBR 09:47:44 09:52:39 00:58:38 05:05:36 03:26:28 (341)
Roman Krutina n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Joerie Vansteelant BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Katja Konschak GER 09:53:17 09:58:15 00:52:16 05:28:59 03:27:10 89
2 Keiko Tanaka JPN 10:03:06 10:08:09 00:55:50 05:28:50 03:32:19 101
3 Joanna Carritt GBR 10:15:23 10:20:32 01:02:44 05:31:12 03:35:53 132
4 Amy Forshaw GBR 10:32:30 10:37:47 01:03:56 05:38:56 03:39:13 147
5 Laura Bostock GBR 11:39:35 11:45:26 01:02:53 06:15:25 03:53:53 (162)
Tamsin Lewis GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Lenka Kralova CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Cyril Viennot: 29% (3-1)
  • Mike Aigroz: 20% (4-1)
  • Axel Zeebroek: 16% (5-1)
  • Georg Potrebitsch: 11% (8-1)
  • Stephen Bayliss: 9% (10-1)
  • Swen Sundberg: 5% (19-1)
  • Kirill Kotshegarov: 4% (22-1)
  • Scott Neyedli: 4% (26-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Katja Konschak: 55% (1-1)
  • Keiko Tanaka: 22% (4-1)
  • Joanna Carritt: 18% (5-1)
  • Amy Forshaw: 4% (26-1)

KPR Situation

Men

There is a number of athletes that are able to make it to Kona with a good result in the UK:

  • Axel Zeebroek – 2.790
  • Cyril Viennot – 2.240
  • Harry Wiltshire – 2.080
  • Scott Neyedli – 2.000
  • Stephen Bayliss – 1.690
Remember that the men need about 3.500 points to qualify.

Women

My projected Kona cutoff for the women is 4.900 points, so only Katja Konschak (3.390) in a position to move into a position to qualify.

Challenge Atlantic City – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

With an adjustment of 16:29, the first edition of Atlantic City was a pretty fast, on a level similar to Melbourne or Brasil.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:53:25 04:43:31 02:51:09 08:31:47 -01:19
2 Scott Defilippis USA 00:57:20 04:42:32 02:53:46 08:37:56 -14:47
3 Chris Boudreaux USA 00:54:01 04:34:10 03:07:59 08:40:56 -23:45
4 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:47:24 04:48:04 03:05:53 08:45:09 15:32
5 Thomas Gerlach USA 00:53:10 04:38:18 03:16:00 08:51:28 02:00
6 Chad Holderbaum USA 00:57:14 04:46:33 03:12:40 09:00:13 07:25
7 Petr Vabrousek CZE 01:04:57 04:49:27 03:01:37 09:01:08 19:33
8 Dan Mcintosh USA 00:53:57 04:51:06 03:14:56 09:03:58 06:36
9 Nathan Killam CAN 00:57:09 04:46:12 03:21:52 09:09:26 -10:33
10 Jim Lamastra USA 00:53:58 04:42:45 03:39:22 09:19:59 -07:25
11 John Hirsch USA 00:57:21 05:02:56 03:19:01 09:22:56 -05:35
12 Jeff Paul USA 01:11:05 04:52:20 03:08:10 09:26:29 -15:31
13 Aubrey Aldy USA 01:11:08 05:06:18 03:05:15 09:26:50 -27:46
14 Jeremy Howard USA 00:55:31 05:09:10 03:30:02 09:38:16 n/a
15 Jack Braconnier USA 01:11:19 05:09:56 03:18:09 09:44:43 n/a
16 Arland Macasieb PHI 01:11:04 05:50:28 03:58:34 11:13:43 1:14:41
  Chris McCormack AUS 00:53:14 04:43:31   DNF  
  Ryan Bates USA 00:57:20 04:44:03   DNF  
  Kyle Pawlaczyk USA 00:58:12 04:50:07   DNF  
  Ryan Cain CAN 00:57:19 04:56:11   DNF  
  James Lubinski USA 01:10:47 05:36:14   DNF  
  Simon Malo CAN 01:07:39 05:42:48   DNF  
  Tom Wood USA 00:57:18     DNF  

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Laurel Wassner USA 00:58:37 05:16:42 03:09:09 09:29:20 -23:39
2 Jacqui Gordon USA 01:05:34 05:10:59 03:33:29 09:54:10 -02:39
3 Natasha Van der Merwe USA 01:08:32 05:12:52 03:32:43 09:58:13 -20:48
4 Alyssa Godesky USA 01:08:02 05:20:34 03:36:12 10:09:25 -17:07
5 Meghan Newcomer USA 01:05:31 05:29:40 03:53:27 10:33:00 24:07

Co-Hosting Multisport News on EndurancePlanet

Yesterday, I spent an hour geeking out with EndurancePlanet host Tawnee Prazak about Ironman Germany, the KPR and lots of other issues in Professional Ironman racing. We both had a great time – and if you like Trirating.com, I’m sure you’ll like to listen to the “Multisport News” that Tawnee released on EndurancePlanet.

EndurancePlanet

If you enjoy listening to podcasts, please consider donating to EndurancePlanet’s Week of Kona to help Tawnee get to Kona so that she can bring you interviews with pros and age-groupers, insider videos, Q&A’s with triathlon celebrities and much more!

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