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Ironman Florida 2013 (November 2nd) – Predictions

Update (Oct 27th): Despite the large number of athletes on the list, I’m only aware of one cancellation: Thomas Gerlach has withdrawn, instead Axel Zeebroek (BEL) is now on the list. Some athletes are still doubtful (Dirk Bockel), while some have confirmed their starts (Mirinda Carfrae, Rebekah Keat).

Update (Oct 31st): Dirk Bockel won’t be starting.

Update (Nov 1st): The Athlete Tracker for Ironman Florida has been populated. There have been no last minute additions. However, 28 athletes (24 men and 4 women) are not showing up – usually this means that they have not picked up their bibs and will not start. I have tried to verify a few names and they are indeed not starting. (Most notably, Rebekah Keat is apparently not yet fully recovered from her 70.3 race.) Therefore, I’ve crossed out those athletes missing from the tracker.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Last year we saw Andy Starykowicz nail the bike on his first IM race with a fantastic 4:04, and then holding on to his lead on the run:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Andrew Starykowicz USA 00:49:51 04:04:39 03:06:42 08:06:17
2 Jan Raphael GER 00:50:36 04:23:35 02:49:53 08:08:49
3 Scott Defilippis USA 00:57:44 04:18:46 02:47:29 08:09:33

Female Race Results

IM Florida 2012 was the first “good” result for Yvonne van Vlerken after some time, she was able to go sub-9 for the first time after more than four years and a string of frustrating DNF – what a year she’s had since then! Rinny just validated her Kona slot (although she said she got more competitive than planned on the run), while Ashley had a great Ironman debut:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 01:01:26 04:40:20 03:04:45 08:51:35
2 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 00:58:53 04:57:06 03:03:26 09:05:03
3 Ashley Clifford USA 00:56:41 05:07:51 02:57:31 09:07:34

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:59:42 Ronnie Schildknecht 2011-11-05
Swim overall 00:44:36 John Flanagan 2011-11-05
Bike overall 04:04:39 Andrew Starykowicz 2012-11-03
Run overall 02:42:55 Mads Vittrup 2011-11-05
Total female 08:51:35 Yvonne Van Vlerken 2012-11-03
Swim female 00:50:26 Tereza Macel 2007-11-03
Bike female 04:40:20 Yvonne Van Vlerken 2012-11-03
Run female 02:53:26 Jessica Jacobs 2011-11-05

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Florida is 16:35. It is one of the quickest courses, especially the flat bike ride least to quick times.

Race Adjustments for IM Florida

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 13:36 -01:04 07:05 -01:57 28 13:36 -01:04 07:05 -01:57
2006 12:31 -03:15 05:07 04:50 40 13:04 -02:09 06:06 01:27
2007 19:36 00:05 14:25 04:43 68 15:14 -01:24 08:52 02:32
2008 20:56 -00:41 12:54 05:41 44 16:40 -01:14 09:53 03:19
2009 16:57 n/a n/a n/a 29 16:43 -01:14 09:53 03:19
2010 11:43 -00:07 12:06 06:21 33 15:53 -01:00 10:19 03:56
2011 21:21 -00:22 16:23 06:30 32 16:40 -00:54 11:20 04:21
2012 16:02 -03:16 22:48 01:49 36 16:35 -01:14 12:58 04:00

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Florida has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

A lot of the participants in this list are doubtful after a long season and the recent Kona race. For example, Thomas Gerlach said he’d be ready to race, but has to focus on “big results”. With such a large field, there are a lot of athletes competing for the few spots with decent KPR points. Some other athletes have taken a bit of a break and will be relatively fresh.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 2 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:15:36 08:31:18 00:47:13 04:41:11 03:00:55 15
2 1 Andrew Starykowicz USA 08:16:26 08:32:10 00:47:20 04:26:12 03:17:11 19
3 20 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:16:51 08:32:36 00:55:07 04:42:51 02:52:58 21
4 3 Dirk Bockel LUX 08:18:34 08:34:22 00:47:02 04:34:10 02:56:14 23
5 73 Daniel Fontana ITA 08:19:13 08:35:02 00:48:35 04:43:21 03:00:42 26
6 74 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:23:48 08:39:46 00:47:56 04:45:15 03:04:14 39
7 5 Michael Goehner GER 08:25:47 08:41:49 00:53:08 04:42:57 03:00:41 45
8 32 Per Bittner GER 08:26:38 08:42:41 00:49:29 04:49:54 03:01:02 48
9 76 David Plese SVN 08:27:29 08:43:34 00:54:12 04:46:43 03:00:01 53
10 13 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:27:34 08:43:39 00:48:27 04:49:23 03:03:27 54
11 4 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 08:28:50 08:44:57 00:51:54 04:40:30 03:05:44 57
12 57 Joe Skipper GBR 08:28:52 08:45:00 00:53:14 04:44:39 03:02:24 60
13 7 Pedro Gomes POR 08:29:34 08:45:43 00:52:11 04:51:40 03:08:21 62
14 8 Jozsef Major HUN 08:31:38 08:47:51 00:57:38 04:42:38 03:03:15 69
15 6 Justin Daerr USA 08:31:44 08:47:57 00:54:05 04:47:59 03:02:16 70
16 65 Christian Kemp AUS 08:33:35 08:49:51 00:48:01 04:52:35 03:07:01 74
17 52 Dorian Wagner GER 08:33:47 08:50:04 00:48:53 04:51:47 03:07:57 77
(18) 77 Axel Zeebroek BEL 08:34:25 08:50:43 00:47:29 04:44:58 03:15:29 79
18 26 Vincent Riess AUT 08:34:25 08:50:43 00:54:23 04:56:52 02:53:15 79
19 11 Christophe Bastie FRA 08:34:41 08:51:00 00:53:26 04:44:35 03:09:11 82
20 34 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:37:21 08:53:45 00:54:43 04:52:01 03:02:04 88
21 28 Pontus Lindberg SWE 08:39:30 08:55:58 00:51:08 04:53:30 03:11:06 100
22 9 Patrick Evoe USA 08:40:15 08:56:44 00:55:44 04:45:41 03:09:57 105
23 36 Kevin Taddonio USA 08:40:24 08:56:53 01:00:23 04:48:53 03:04:13 106
24 67 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:41:19 08:57:50 00:54:51 04:52:40 03:05:06 111
25 66 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:42:39 08:59:13 00:55:08 04:45:59 03:15:12 116
26 58 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 08:43:03 08:59:37 00:48:27 04:57:56 03:11:32 118
27 31 Thiago Vinhal BRA 08:43:43 09:00:19 00:48:47 05:06:58 03:01:36 121
28 22 David Bardi FRA 08:44:33 09:01:10 00:49:48 04:46:29 03:22:44 124
29 12 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 08:45:44 09:02:24 00:48:37 04:43:55 03:30:11 131
30 19 David Naesvik SWE 08:46:12 09:02:52 00:54:42 04:47:26 03:18:53 136
31 61 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:47:08 09:03:50 00:53:45 04:48:15 03:19:56 138
32 18 Andreas Fuchs AUT 08:47:41 09:04:24 00:55:34 04:43:36 03:21:39 139
33 33 Scott Defilippis USA 08:49:16 09:06:02 00:56:02 04:58:43 03:03:00 145
34 45 Derek Garcia USA 08:49:56 09:06:44 00:54:15 04:50:13 03:19:23 147
35 46 Rinalds Sluckis LAT 08:50:02 09:06:50 00:55:52 04:50:46 03:18:33 148
36 44 Nicholas Munoz ESP 08:50:32 09:07:21 00:57:04 05:01:16 03:01:12 149
37 38 Nicolas Hemet FRA 08:51:30 09:08:21 00:53:41 04:52:22 03:19:39 152
38 60 Anders Wagner DEN 08:51:43 09:08:34 01:02:23 04:57:05 03:01:44 153
39 24 Matthew Sheeks USA 08:52:25 09:09:17 01:02:57 05:01:20 02:58:23 155
40 10 Markus Ressler AUT 08:56:44 09:13:45 00:52:02 04:59:38 03:19:46 167
41 27 Chad Holderbaum USA 08:59:24 09:16:30 00:56:21 04:56:09 03:15:41 175
42 43 Gerald Ratschke AUT 09:03:47 09:21:01 01:03:09 05:04:58 03:07:24 187
43 42 Adam Bohach USA 09:05:21 09:22:38 00:55:18 05:09:38 03:14:29 194
44 70 Herve Banti MCO 09:05:58 09:23:16 00:51:22 05:02:47 03:20:18 199
45 55 Manuel Wyss SUI 09:11:15 09:28:43 00:53:07 05:10:57 03:19:28 210
46 51 Chris Boudreaux USA 09:11:55 09:29:24 00:54:07 05:09:10 03:21:31 212
47 62 Blake Becker USA 09:13:08 09:30:40 00:53:14 05:01:50 03:26:20 216
48 69 Kyle Pawlaczyk USA 09:19:28 09:37:12 00:54:52 05:12:16 03:28:44 238
49 30 Daniel Mueller GER 09:20:10 09:37:55 00:51:28 05:06:32 03:45:34 241
50 48 Jim Lubinski USA 09:24:51 09:42:45 01:02:41 05:14:13 03:21:58 259
51 68 Jordan Bryden CAN 09:25:06 09:43:00 00:50:34 05:17:35 03:36:00 262
52 23 Christian Carletto ARG 09:27:21 09:45:20 00:54:59 05:13:52 03:32:34 268
53 47 Vinny Johnson USA 09:28:04 09:46:04 00:53:11 05:27:55 03:16:50 270
54 17 Frank Silvestrin BRA 09:33:28 09:51:38 00:49:58 05:05:50 03:56:48 285
55 35 Aubrey Aldy USA 09:37:37 09:55:55 01:04:37 05:28:23 03:12:52 301
56 39 James Lamastra USA 09:37:45 09:56:04 00:52:24 05:02:17 03:59:53 301
57 50 Josef Krivanek CZE 09:38:15 09:56:34 00:59:42 05:12:10 03:41:09 302
58 49 Evgeniy Nikitin RUS 09:43:14 10:01:43 00:51:09 05:11:06 03:56:23 316
59 37 Peter Kotland USA 09:44:58 10:03:30 00:57:46 05:21:13 03:36:08 320
60 16 Dantley Young USA 09:49:15 10:07:55 01:02:08 05:20:31 03:36:50 329
61 40 Ed Donner USA 10:17:17 10:36:51 00:59:19 05:15:50 04:16:30 378
62 63 Tom Svoboda CZE 10:47:53 11:08:25 00:52:45 05:20:15 04:49:37 396
63 53 Josef Svoboda CZE 11:28:15 11:50:04 01:11:34 05:55:58 04:25:57 399
29 Nate Buttrick USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
25 Benoit Bourguet BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
75 Gustavo Rodriguez ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
21 Philip Mosley GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
59 Lennart Moberg SWE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
56 Michael Louys BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
71 Robbie Wade IRL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
15 Sean Sullivan USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
54 Darrel Williams USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
72 Damon Barnett USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
64 Filip Ospaly CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
14 Martin Kleinl AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Similar to the men’s side, a lot of the participants in this list are doubtful. After winning Kona (and her planned wedding), Rinny may take a break. (She has tweeted she hasn’t made a final decision yet.)

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 81 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 08:50:50 09:07:39 00:53:52 05:12:43 02:58:30 1
2 80 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 08:55:16 09:12:14 00:57:25 05:00:37 03:08:42 2
3 116 Rebekah Keat AUS 09:07:15 09:24:35 00:52:57 05:12:33 03:16:05 12
4 86 Erika Csomor HUN 09:12:29 09:29:59 00:57:35 05:16:05 03:12:40 19
5 90 Diana Riesler GER 09:18:19 09:36:01 00:59:11 05:08:18 03:24:24 31
6 87 Carrie Lester AUS 09:18:44 09:36:26 00:55:28 05:13:44 03:23:34 32
7 117 Mareen Hufe GER 09:20:48 09:38:34 01:01:09 05:08:38 03:25:56 36
8 118 Ashley Clifford USA 09:24:08 09:42:01 00:53:56 05:32:34 03:14:02 45
9 88 Haley Chura USA 09:25:16 09:43:11 00:49:08 05:23:41 03:29:39 50
10 84 Jackie Arendt USA 09:33:47 09:51:58 00:55:18 05:28:35 03:21:14 62
11 91 Simone Braendli SUI 09:35:54 09:54:09 00:51:32 05:16:50 03:33:29 67
12 82 Jessica Jacobs USA 09:38:56 09:57:17 01:06:10 05:16:08 03:17:59 73
13 94 Christine Anderson USA 09:40:16 09:58:39 00:54:55 05:28:48 03:33:53 76
14 100 Rachel Jastrebsky USA 09:48:26 10:07:05 00:59:32 05:29:33 03:34:16 90
15 111 April Gellatly USA 09:51:26 10:10:11 00:56:47 05:28:51 03:38:55 93
16 114 Anne Basso FRA 09:51:42 10:10:27 00:58:05 05:31:00 03:41:39 95
17 85 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:53:18 10:12:06 00:51:15 05:19:00 03:54:51 100
18 89 Olesya Prystayko UKR 09:53:42 10:12:31 01:00:02 05:31:12 03:39:54 101
19 99 Svetlana Blazevic SCG 09:55:10 10:14:02 00:52:02 05:33:51 03:44:28 107
20 104 Maria Lemeseva RUS 09:55:16 10:14:08 01:06:53 05:32:52 03:32:33 108
21 98 Amber Ferreira USA 09:55:39 10:14:32 00:55:05 05:37:24 03:38:13 108
22 107 Ana Lidia Borba BRA 10:02:59 10:22:05 00:55:26 05:24:19 03:54:20 121
23 106 Cindy Lewis CAN 10:05:42 10:24:54 01:04:05 05:37:23 03:37:28 125
24 93 Emma Graaf SWE 10:09:38 10:28:57 00:57:51 05:36:37 03:53:07 128
25 92 Simona Vykoukalova CZE 10:10:42 10:30:03 01:08:17 05:41:31 03:35:44 128
26 95 Amy Forshaw GBR 10:13:29 10:32:55 01:02:44 05:42:53 03:37:01 129
27 110 Natasha Van der Merwe USA 10:21:48 10:41:30 01:04:44 05:29:48 04:04:06 132
28 101 Robin Sandos USA 10:32:39 10:52:42 00:58:55 05:43:16 04:04:15 138
29 96 Whitney Garcia USA 10:41:56 11:02:17 01:06:43 06:10:26 04:02:50 141
113 Lindsay Ludlow USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
109 Fabiola Corona MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
102 Suzy Serpico USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
112 Jordan McAmmond USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
115 Lisa Huetthaler AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
97 Molly Roohi USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
105 Beate Goertz GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The first three athletes have raced in Kona (with varying results – Dirk had a DNF, TO had a great fifth place and Andy got a lot of airtime on the bike). It is unclear what they are able to do in Florida, and it may be a good chance for some other athletes with nominally lower chances to contend for the top spot:

  • Dirk Bockel: 38% (2-1)
  • Timothy O’Donnell: 26% (3-1)
  • Andrew Starykowicz: 17% (5-1)
  • Victor Del Corral: 6% (17-1)
  • Michael Goehner: 3% (36-1)
  • Daniel Fontana: 3% (38-1)
  • Scott Defilippis: 2% (42-1)
  • Pedro Gomes: 2% (66-1)

Female Race Participants

On the girls side, the two favorites (Rinny and Yvonne) have just raced hard in Kona – and the next athletes on the list would love to take the win.

  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 49% (1-1)
  • Mirinda Carfrae: 29% (2-1)
  • Jessica Jacobs: 8% (12-1)
  • Rebekah Keat: 6% (16-1)
  • Diana Riesler: 4% (24-1)
  • Erika Csomor: 3% (34-1)

Ironman Hawaii 2013 – Analyzing Results

I’ve had a lot of fun following the Kona race through Twitter and updating my “Live Predictions” at kona.trirating.com. (It’s still up with the final results, so you can sort and analyze the results.) Rather than recount the exciting races (other sites will do a much better job than I can), I’ve decided to offer some additional insight by quickly doing my usual race analysis, noting where athletes went quicker (green) or slower (red) than expected by their previous results. For some fun, I’ve done a twitter roundup of the women’s race and the men’s race.

Race Conditions

The conditions in Kona were relatively fast. Kona has a course rating of -4:51, with the adjustments floating between -2 and -12 minutes. This year, the adjustment was 00:36, more than 10 minutes quicker as last year and even a bit faster than in 2011 when the it took course records to win both the men’s and women’s races.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 00:51:02 04:25:35 02:51:18 08:12:29 -12:10
2 Luke McKenzie AUS 00:51:17 04:22:25 02:57:20 08:15:19 -25:48
3 Sebastian Kienle GER 00:54:13 04:22:33 02:58:35 08:19:24 -03:06
4 James Cunnama ZAF 00:51:13 04:34:21 02:52:37 08:21:46 -12:50
5 Timothy O’Donnell USA 00:51:04 04:35:37 02:51:07 08:22:25 -10:40
6 Ivan Rana ESP 00:51:06 04:40:34 02:47:54 08:23:43 -09:48
7 Tyler Butterfield BMU 00:51:24 04:30:10 02:58:22 08:24:09 -06:09
8 Bart Aernouts BEL 00:57:26 04:39:46 02:44:03 08:25:38 03:51
9 Timo Bracht GER 00:51:21 04:34:46 02:56:07 08:26:32 05:25
10 Faris Al-Sultan GER 00:51:19 04:29:56 03:05:46 08:31:13 07:43
11 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:51:28 04:34:44 03:01:49 08:32:04 13:42
12 Cyril Viennot FRA 00:54:13 04:38:15 02:56:47 08:33:12 -03:10
13 Igor Amorelli BRA 00:51:02 04:35:16 03:04:11 08:34:59 -05:46
14 Christian Ritter GER 00:51:08 04:44:33 02:55:39 08:35:23 -07:47
15 Ben Hoffman USA 00:51:12 04:40:29 03:00:28 08:36:25 01:15
16 Marko Albert EST 00:51:02 04:43:40 02:58:43 08:37:44 -01:10
17 Paul Amey GBR 00:54:10 04:45:43 02:55:17 08:39:20 -04:19
18 Matthew Russell USA 01:04:12 04:38:25 02:52:58 08:39:59 -14:08
19 Andrew Starykowicz USA 00:51:07 04:21:50 03:25:34 08:43:00 18:58
20 TJ Tollakson USA 00:53:41 04:38:00 03:07:24 08:43:56 05:24
21 Craig Alexander AUS 00:51:14 04:40:35 03:07:49 08:43:59 28:20
22 Brandon Marsh USA 00:50:51 04:40:54 03:08:31 08:45:11 -06:12
23 Jimmy Johnsen DEN 00:53:04 04:53:29 02:56:55 08:47:45 06:23
24 Daniel Halksworth GBR 00:51:06 04:48:34 03:05:27 08:49:33 03:02
25 Per Bittner GER 00:54:12 04:50:08 03:05:08 08:53:38 14:22
26 Stefan Schmid GER 00:57:31 04:50:16 03:01:17 08:53:56 08:33
27 David Plese SVN 00:57:50 04:56:34 03:01:49 09:00:59 23:10
28 Chris Legh AUS 01:00:02 04:49:51 03:07:43 09:01:42 -16:49
29 Dominik Berger AUT 00:51:33 04:53:41 03:11:59 09:01:50 02:01
30 Mike Schifferle SUI 01:04:08 04:47:55 03:03:18 09:01:52 -00:04
31 Luke Bell AUS 00:51:17 04:40:23 03:30:40 09:06:39 21:44
32 Pete Jacobs AUS 00:50:56 04:40:53 03:30:40 09:06:39 24:15
33 Balazs Csoke HUN 00:51:13 04:58:43 03:19:39 09:14:20 15:18
34 Horst Reichel GER 00:53:43 04:45:49 03:30:01 09:14:30 22:03
35 Axel Zeebroek BEL 00:51:11 04:47:30 03:31:31 09:15:16 29:02
36 Ben Cotter CAN 01:00:20 04:48:59 03:22:12 09:15:45 05:06
37 Ian Mikelson USA 00:54:10 05:03:44 03:16:57 09:19:13 24:41
38 Petr Vabrousek CZE 01:03:56 04:53:20 03:18:28 09:22:39 26:19
39 Thomas Gerlach USA 01:00:02 04:49:53 03:33:26 09:28:02 33:44
40 Bert Jammaer BEL 00:51:15 04:40:26 04:04:48 09:40:39 54:17
41 Maxim Kriat UKR 00:53:43 04:50:53 04:57:38 10:47:31 14:02

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 00:58:50 04:58:20 02:50:38 08:52:14 -18:27
2 Rachel Joyce GBR 00:54:09 04:55:25 03:03:37 08:57:28 -17:54
3 Liz Blatchford GBR 00:54:07 04:57:40 03:03:23 09:03:35 -17:16
4 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 01:01:57 04:54:38 03:03:25 09:04:34 -08:33
5 Caroline Steffen SUI 00:54:10 04:57:50 03:11:55 09:09:09 -02:49
6 Caitlin Snow USA 00:58:47 05:08:05 02:58:53 09:10:12 -23:11
7 Meredith Kessler USA 00:54:06 04:55:13 03:16:35 09:10:19 -17:49
8 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:54:12 04:55:53 03:16:31 09:11:13 -18:58
9 Gina Crawford NZL 00:54:14 05:04:17 03:11:18 09:14:47 -10:37
10 Linsey Corbin USA 00:59:11 05:07:50 03:04:54 09:17:22 -05:40
11 Amanda Stevens USA 00:54:06 05:00:32 03:18:48 09:17:57 -22:25
12 Leanda Cave GBR 00:54:04 04:58:54 03:27:38 09:25:07 -00:18
13 Jessie Donavan USA 01:12:46 04:59:38 03:08:03 09:25:16 -08:21
14 Natascha Badmann SUI 01:06:41 04:59:54 03:16:29 09:27:57 01:48
15 Kristin Moeller GER 01:13:05 05:09:54 03:04:18 09:31:41 -03:15
16 Elizabeth Lyles USA 01:01:55 05:14:02 03:12:36 09:32:54 -02:47
17 Amy Marsh USA 00:54:15 05:02:11 03:34:16 09:35:29 03:05
18 Rebecca Hoschke AUS 01:06:45 05:08:37 03:15:21 09:35:52 -07:53
19 Sofie Goos BEL 00:58:56 05:12:06 03:20:59 09:36:38 -01:52
20 Jennie Hansen USA 01:06:36 05:08:53 03:16:52 09:37:29 02:46
21 Britta Martin NZL 01:06:11 05:09:50 03:19:03 09:39:46 03:01
22 Kim Schwabenbauer USA 01:06:02 05:15:28 03:17:44 09:45:08 10:28
23 Ashley Clifford USA 00:59:05 05:18:48 03:26:48 09:49:49 10:41
24 Haley Chura USA 00:53:55 05:29:44 03:26:42 09:55:00 17:19
25 Mirjam Weerd NED 00:58:54 05:18:33 03:35:15 10:00:17 23:36
26 Anna Ross NZL 01:06:12 05:16:53 03:32:12 10:00:28 16:02
27 Eva Nystroem SWE 01:13:08 05:12:07 03:31:45 10:02:20 28:01

Ironman Hawaii 2013 – Men’s Pro Race Twitter Roundup

Rather than offering a “traditional” race report, I’ve gone through Twitter/Facebook and picked a tweet or photo that captures how athlete’s days went. (There are some athletes missing, let me know if you find anything from Kona worth sharing!)

  1. Frederik Van Lierde
    VanLierde
    Marino
  2. Luke McKenzie
    Luke
  3. Sebastian Kienle
    Sebi
  4. James Cunnama
    Cunnama
    James
  5. Timothy O’Donnell
    TO
    Rinnie
  6. Ivan Rana
    ivan
  7. Tyler Butterfield
    Ty
  8. Bart Aernouts
    Bart
  9. Timo Bracht
    Timo
  10. Faris Al-Sultan
    Faris
  11. Eneko Llanos
    Eneko
  12. Cyril Viennot
  13. Igor Amorelli
    igor
  14. Christian Ritter
    christian
  15. Ben Hoffman
    ben
  16. Marko Albert
    marko
  17. Paul Amey
  18. Matthew Russell
  19. Andrew Starykowicz
    Starko
  20. TJ Tollakson
    tj
  21. Craig Alexander
    crowie
  22. Brandon Marsh
    Brandon
  23. Jimmy Johnsen
    Jimmy
  24. Daniel Halksworth
    Hawky
  25. Per Bittner
  26. Stefan Schmid
  27. David Plese
  28. Chris Legh
    legh
  29. Dominik Berger
  30. Mike Schifferle
  31. Luke Bell
    auzzieluke
  32. Pete Jacobs
    Pete
  33. Balazs Csoke
    csoke
  34. Horst Reichel
    horst
  35. Axel Zeebroek
    axel
  36. Ben Cotter
  37. Ian Mikelson
    ian
  38. Petr Vabrousek
    petr
  39. Thomas Gerlach
    thomas
  40. Bert Jammaer
    Bert
  41. Maxim Kriat
  • Bevan Docherty
    bevan
  • Dirk Bockel
    dirk
  • Jordan Rapp
    rappstar
  • Ronnie Schildknecht
    eonnie
  • Jan Raphael
  • Pedro Gomes
    pedro
  • Andreas Raelert
    andreas
  • Clayton Fettell
    Clayton
  • Bas Diederen
    bas

Ironman Hawaii 2013 – Women’s Pro Race Twitter Roundup

Rather than offering a “traditional” race report, I’ve gone through Twitter/Facebook and picked one tweet or photo that captures how athlete’s days went. (There are some athletes missing, let me know if you find anything from Kona worth sharing!)

  1. Mirinda Carfrae
    RinnieTweet
  2. Rachel Joyce
    RachelTweet
  3. Liz Blatchford
    LizTweet
  4. Yvonne Van Vlerken
    Yvonne
  5. Caroline Steffen
    Xena
  6. Caitlin Snow
    CaitSnow
    (Arguably, this could also be the photo for Meredith Kessler in the front. Caitlin is “only” in the background, but this photo captures Cait’s amazing finish.)
  7. Meredith Kessler
    MBK
  8. Michelle Vesterby
    Michelle
  9. Gina Crawford
    Gina
  10. Linsey Corbin
    Linsey
  11. Amanda Stevens
    Amanda
  12. Leanda Cave
    Leanda
  13. Jessie Donavan
  14. Natascha Badmann
    Natascha
  15. Kristin Moeller
    Kristin
  16. Elizabeth Lyles
  17. Amy Marsh
    Amy
  18. Rebecca Hoschke
    Rebecca
  19. Sofie Goos
    Sofie
  20. Jennie Hansen
    Jennie
  21. Britta Martin
  22. Kim Schwabenbauer
  23. Ashley Clifford
    Ashley
  24. Haley Chura
    Haley
  25. Mirjam Weerd
  26. Anna Ross
    Anna
  27. Eva Nystroem
  • Anja Beranek (DNF)
  • Jodie Swallow (DNF)
    Jodie
  • Heather Wurtele (DNF)
    Heather
  • Mary Beth Ellis (DNF)
    MBE
  • Sara Gross (DNF)
  • Mareen Hufe (DNF)
  • Rebekah Keat (DNF)
    keatsy
  • Sonja Tajsich (DNF)

Ironman Hawaii 2013 – Odds

With the race about to start, here is another excerpt from my “2013 Kona Rating Report” with my odds for Kona. Even though I have written this article a few weeks ago, not too many things have changed. To check out how they hold up on race day, please check out my “Live Predictions” at kona.trirating.com.

Male Winners

As usual, it is hard to pick a clear favorite. Last year’s winner Pete Jacobs knows how to be in top shape for October, but as usual he has been laying low for the season. Craig Alexander has also not had a stellar result in this season, but I’m sure he would love to go out with a bang. After these two, Andreas Raelert has qualified with a sub-8h time in Austria – but the time for his first Kona win is slowly running out. Eneko Llanos has had a great season so far, but has struggled to race well in Kona. Macca is an experienced competitor, but he hasn’t had a good Ironman result since winning in 2011. There are also a couple of long shots: Dirk Bockel has posted a number of strong results in Kona and has been focusing on this race for a while. Last year’s third placed Frederik Van Lierde produced a strong result in France, but does he have the potential to step it up? James Cunnama may have the potential to win Kona, but he probably will need a bit more experience to be able to produce a great Kona result.

Favorites

  • Craig Alexander 26% (3-1)
  • Pete Jacobs 23% (3-1)

In the Mix

  • Andreas Raelert 12% (7-1)
  • Eneko Llanos 10% (9-1)
  • Chris McCormack 8% (12-1)

Long Shots

  • Dirk Bockel 7% (11-1)
  • Frederik Van Lierde 5% (19-1)
  • James Cunnama 4% (24-1)

Female Winners

On the women’s side, I see four athletes who are a bit ahead of the rest: Caroline Steffen (good, but not stellar season with a lot of racing), Mirinda Carfrae (took care of validating early and has been laying low since then), defending champion Leanda Cave (also validated early, but has been dealing with an injury) and Rachel Joyce (good qualifying race in Texas, and hopefully took her usual “Kona infection” in the summer to allow for a decent Kona prep). The numbers are so close together that it’s almost impossible to objectively pick a race favorite. After these four, I decided to skip the “In the Mix” section and go straight to the “Long Shots”. Yvonne has had a great season so far, but other than a second place from 2008 she hasn’t had a good result in Kona. Jodie Swallow has only started IM racing this year, and she’s been always on the podium and steadily improved her times and pacing. But there haven’t been too many Kona rookies to win the race. Then there is Mary Beth Ellis – unbeaten outside of Kona. Maybe she’s ready to pull off a great Kona performance this year.

Favorites

  • Caroline Steffen 20% (4-1)
  • Mirinda Carfrae 19% (4-1)
  • Leanda Cave 17% (5-1)
  • Rachel Joyce 16% (5-1)

Long Shots

  • Yvonne Van Vlercken 8% (12-1)
  • Jodie Swallow 6% (16-1)
  • Mary Beth Ellis 4% (24-1)

Male TOP 3

Although there are only three spots available, I have four “safe bets” for the podium. Obviously, at least one won’t be able to make it – but it’s hard to pick which one is not. Andreas and Pete have been super-solid in Kona. Eneko was great this year, and Crowie was only once off the podium. Behind these, there are a few established “aging” athletes (Macca, Timo), a few solid racers still working to improve in Kona (Frederik, Dirk, Jordan, David, TO, Sebi) and a few that are either in Kona for the first time or still working to find a good Kona result (James, Ronnie, Bevan).

Safe Bets

  • Andreas Raelert 46%
  • Pete Jacobs 37%
  • Eneko Llanos 35%
  • Craig Alexander 31%

Knocking on the door

  • Frederik Van Lierde 24%
  • Chris McCormack 21% 
  • Dirk Bockel 19%

Outside Chances

  • James Cunnama 10%
  • Timo Bracht 8%
  • Ronnie Schildknecht 8%
  • Bevan Docherty 8%
  • Jordan Rapp 8%
  • David Dellow 7%
  • Timothy O’Donnell 7%
  • Sebastian Kienle 6%

Female TOP 3

For the girls, the best three picks are pretty obvious: Xena, Leanda and Rinnie. Next we have Yvonne with her long list of good results. The TOP3 odds for Rachel are almost the same as her winning chances – which means that statistically she either has a very good day and delivers a winning performance or she is “completely off” and either DNFs or finishes pretty far down the list. Mary Beth also has had some TOP3 worthy results, but she hasn’t had a Kona-winning worthy performance yet. Behind these, the odds drop pretty quickly, a lot of athletes that we have seen winning races in the season only have a very small statistical chance of a podium finish. However, we usually see at least one “break-through” performance in Kona – and it’ll be very interesting to see who will be that this year.

Safe Bets

  • Caroline Steffen 53%
  • Leanda Cave 44%
  • Mirinda Carfrae 38%

Knocking on the door

  • Yvonne Van Vlerken 35%
  • Rachel Joyce 24%
  • Mary Beth Ellis 22%

Outside Chances

  • Sonja Tajsich 10%
  • Anja Beranek 9%
  • Linsey Corbin 5%
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