TriRating – Page 300 – Triathlon. Data. Insights.

Looking ahead to Kona 2013 – First Predictions

February 26, 2017

In 2012 I did a series of posts on the winning odds for Kona and how they change over the year. I’d like to continue that for 2013. Here is the first post of that series.

Male

After all the 2012 racing is over, here are the chances for winning Kona 2013 for the men:

Craig Alexander: 24% (3-1)
Pete Jacobs: 23% (3-1)
Marino Vanhoenacker: 17% (5-1)
Chris McCormack: 11% (8-1)
Andreas Raelert: 7% (13-1)
James Cunnama: 5% (18-1)
Nils Frommhold: 3% (31-1)
Cameron Brown: 2% (43-1)
Eneko Llanos: 2% (43-1)

The graph on the right shows the changes that occurred since early October 2012 (including Kona): Kona2013MenOdds

Crowie’s “bad” race in Kona decreased his chances, but he still leads the odds. (Similar to Macca, it remains to be seen if he is actually going to race Kona 2013).
With Crowie’s lowered odds, the DNFs of Macca and Marino actually led to an increase in their odds (even in the absence of new results). They’ll have to race in 2013 if they want to qualify for Kona, and that will give a better indication of where they are.
Pete Jacobs’ win has put him into almost a statistical dead heat with Crowie. He just knows how to race Kona, and it will be very interesting to see what influence the pressure of defending is going to have on him.
Andreas Raelert continues to slip in the odds. After four years on the Kona podium, you can’t ignore him, but will he ever make it to the top spot? I’m keeping my fingers crossed for him!
James Cunnama is just one of a number of new athletes that didn’t race Kona in 2012 but may play a role in 2013.
Eneko Llanos (just as Cam Brown) is still a great athlete, but probably can’t be considered a top Kona contender for much longer.

Female

Here are the 2013 Kona odds for the women:

Mirinda Carfrae: 25% (3-1)
Leanda Cave: 22% (4-1)
Caroline Steffen: 22% (4-1)
Rachel Joyce: 11% (8-1)
Mary Beth Ellis: 7% (13-1)
Yvonne Van Vlerken: 4% (26-1)

Here are a few of the events that lead to the changes: Kona2013WomenOdds

After the Kona race, Rinnie, Leanda and Caroline are very close together – it would be very hard to pick a favorite. Rinnie has to find back to her winning form, and Leanda and Caroline will have to work hard to repeat their great 2012 season (or even improve further). An exciting October to look forward to, especially considering that Rinnie and Leanda probably won’t race another IM before Kona!
Rachel and Mary Beth will look for some further improvement to close the (statistical) gap to the first three women.
As for the men, there are going to be a few athletes that were not on the 2012 list that are going to play in role in 2013. Yvonne van Vlercken is one example, if she manages to stay on track with her training and prep, I’m sure that she’ll have a great season.

Challenge Wanaka 2013 – Predictions

February 26, 2017

The first long distance race for 2013 is coming up – Challenge Wanaka! The race is set in a beautiful spot in New Zealand’s Southern Alps. It’s a smaller race but this year with a pretty good pro field. There has already been some banter on Twitter about the Aussie – New Zealand rivalry. Apparently Rhodesy started it (“Kiwi’s Vs the Aussie’s going to be fun!”), of course Macca had to weigh in (“will be like stealing candy from kids. Can’t wait mate”) which then triggered a comment from Paul Amey (“the only kids you’ve stolen candy from was your own….when they were asleep!”). The women’s race seems to be safe for New Zealand, but Gina Crawford and Jo Lawn will battle for the win until the end. (The IMTalk guys have a great pre-Wanaka interview with Jo Lawn on IMTalk Episode 343 – Jo Lawn.)

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Aaron Farlow	AUS	00:50:43	04:44:51	03:02:41	08:41:53
2	Jamie Whyte	NZL	00:51:31	04:47:45	03:08:55	08:51:53
3	Kieran Doe	NZL	00:47:44	04:50:23	03:15:42	08:57:17

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Gina Crawford	NZL	00:54:21	05:24:10	03:17:16	09:44:06
2	Britta Martin	NZL	01:01:58	05:19:27	03:17:11	09:47:39
3	Simone Maier	GER	01:05:44	05:22:54	03:20:03	09:57:42

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:34:41	Richard Ussher	2010-01-16
Swim	overall	00:47:44	Kieran Doe	2012-01-21
Bike	overall	04:44:51	Aaron Farlow	2012-01-21
Run	overall	03:00:04	Scott Defilippis	2012-01-21
Total	female	09:28:27	Gina Crawford	2009-01-01
Swim	female	00:54:21	Gina Crawford	2012-01-21
Swim	female	00:54:21	Nicole Ward	2012-01-21
Bike	female	05:19:27	Britta Martin	2012-01-21
Run	female	03:17:11	Britta Martin	2012-01-21

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Wanaka is – 04:22.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Wanaka

Year	Adjustment	# of Athletes	Rating
2007	03:11	6	03:11
2008	-04:50	9	-00:49
2009	06:06	9	01:29
2010	00:28	12	01:14
2011	-25:05	11	-04:02
2012	-06:01	15	-04:22

Male Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Chris McCormack	AUS	08:31:25	08:27:19	10
2	Jamie Whyte	NZL	08:50:57	08:46:42	83
3	Leon Griffin	AUS	09:01:23	08:57:03	137
4	Keegan Williams	NZL	09:05:37	09:01:15	162
5	Axel Reiser	NZL	09:13:19	09:08:53	224
6	Bryan Rhodes	NZL	09:19:41	09:15:12	258
7	Diederik Scheltinga	NED	n/a	unrated	n/a
8	Carl Read	NZL	n/a	unrated	n/a
9	Dylan McNeice	NZL	n/a	unrated	n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Gina Crawford	NZL	09:34:16	09:29:40	17
2	Joanna Lawn	NZL	09:39:12	09:34:33	28
3	Candice Hammond	NZL	09:47:52	09:43:09	44
4	Kim Loeffler	USA	09:52:11	09:47:26	62
5	Julia Grant	NZL	09:59:56	09:55:07	88
6	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	10:00:10	09:55:21	88
7	Simone Maier	GER	10:05:07	10:00:16	103
8	Tamsyn Hayes	NZL	10:06:09	10:01:17	106
9	Jodie Scott	AUS	10:47:45	10:42:33	228
10	Ali Hollington	NZL	n/a	unrated	n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Chris McCormack: 51% (1-1)
Jamie Whyte: 20% (4-1)
Keegan Williams: 15% (6-1)
Leon Griffin: 7% (13-1)
Bryan Rhodes: 4% (23-1)
Axel Reiser: 3% (33-1)

Female Race Participants

Gina Crawford: 50% (1-1)
Joanna Lawn: 28% (3-1)
Kate Bevilaqua: 9% (10-1)
Kim Loeffler: 8% (12-1)
Candice Hammond: 5% (20-1)

Best Swimmers, Bikers and Runners in IM-distance Triathlons

January 6, 2013

As described in my recently released 2012 Rating Report (get your copy here), I’ve extended my analysis to come up with ratings for each of the legs in a triathlon. As with the „total“ rating, the individual ratings account for conditions and a slow or fast course in order to compare results from different races and courses. As the data for each of the legs is not always available, I’ve relaxed the requirements for a valid rating a bit: Only two results are necessary for a rating in one of the disciplines. Still, one result in the last twelve months is required.

In this post you can find the best rated swimmers, bikers and runners. I’ve also updated my “TOP 10 Ratings” page (in the menu), which lists all results for these athletes.

TOP Swim-Rated Athletes

A lot of the names in the swim-ratings are not that well known: There are swim-specialists that do not play a major role for the rest of the race. But these athletes have a great potential: For example, Andy Potts has shown that a great swimmer can develop into a great Ironman athlete capable of winning races.

TOP 10 Swim-Rated Male Athletes

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Last Race	# Races
1	Andy Potts	USA	00:45:16	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	7
2	Luiz Francisco Ferreira	BRA	00:46:24	IM Brasil on 2012-05-27	2
3	Paul Matthews	AUS	00:46:34	IM Arizona on 2012-11-18	2
4	Marko Albert	EST	00:46:36	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	4
5	Greg Bennett	USA	00:46:38	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	2
6	Stephane Poulat	FRA	00:46:43	IM Germany on 2012-07-08	2
7	David Dellow	AUS	00:46:48	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	4
8	Kieran Doe	NZL	00:46:48	Challenge Wanaka on 2012-01-21	8
9	Benjamin Sanson	FRA	00:46:58	Challenge Roth on 2012-07-08	5
10	Michael Raelert	GER	00:46:58	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	2

TOP 10 Swim-Rated Female Athletes

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Last Race	# Races
1	Amanda Stevens	USA	00:48:27	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	5
2	Lucie Zelenkova	ZAF	00:49:09	Challenge Roth on 2012-07-08	7
3	Dede Griesbauer	USA	00:50:36	IM New York on 2012-08-11	14
4	Meredith Kessler	USA	00:50:56	IM Arizona on 2012-11-18	13
5	Rachel Joyce	GBR	00:50:56	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	9
6	Leanda Cave	GBR	00:50:58	IM Arizona on 2012-11-18	12
7	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	00:51:10	IM Cozumel on 2012-11-25	8
8	Simone Braendli	SWI	00:51:13	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	7
9	Tami Ritchie		00:51:27	IM Texas on 2012-05-19	2
10	Anja Beranek	GER	00:51:39	IM Germany on 2012-07-08	2

TOP Bike-Rated Athletes

TOP 10 Bike-Rated Male Athletes

The names in the TOP 10 bike-ratings are much better known than the swimmers. After his fantastic races in Florida (posting a new world record for the bike leg) and Arizona Andy Starykowicz leads the ranking followed by Sebastian Kienle and Konstantin Bachor (who both posted really fast bike times in Roth). Jordan Rapp and Ben Hoffmann prove that the US has some pretty good bike riders, too. But all in all, the Europeans dominate this ranking.

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Last Race	# Races
1	Andrew Starykowicz	USA	04:26:53	IM Arizona on 2012-11-18	2
2	Sebastian Kienle	GER	04:30:13	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	5
3	Konstantin Bachor	GER	04:30:55	Challenge Roth on 2012-07-08	4
4	Marino Vanhoenacker	BEL	04:32:08	IM Germany on 2012-07-08	12
5	Maik Twelsiek	GER	04:33:30	IM New York on 2012-08-11	15
6	Faris Al-Sultan	GER	04:33:54	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	13
7	Jordan Rapp	USA	04:35:23	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	10
8	Timo Bracht	GER	04:35:23	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	14
9	Dirk Bockel	LUX	04:35:33	IM Cozumel on 2012-11-25	8
10	Ben Hoffman	USA	04:36:34	IM Wisconsin on 2012-09-09	8

TOP 10 Bike-Rated Female Athletes

On the women’s side, we have a Swiss domination, even if Caroline Steffen and Natascha Badmann are from two different generations. As on the men’s side, there are some US athletes, but the Europeans dominate this ranking.

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Last Race	# Races
1	Caroline Steffen	SUI	05:00:32	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	11
2	Natascha Badmann	SWI	05:03:44	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	7
3	Yvonne Van Vlerken	AUT	05:04:05	IM Florida on 2012-11-03	7
4	Amy Marsh	USA	05:06:08	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	7
5	Sophie De Groote	BEL	05:06:56	IM Cozumel on 2012-11-25	2
6	Diana Riesler	GER	05:07:25	IM South Africa on 2012-04-22	4
7	Tine Deckers	BEL	05:08:10	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	11
8	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	05:08:30	IM Cozumel on 2012-11-25	8
9	Rachel Joyce	GBR	05:08:33	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	9
10	Anja Beranek	GER	05:09:35	IM Germany on 2012-07-08	2

TOP Run-Rated Athletes

The run is where races are decided, so it is not surprising to see that IM winners dominate this ranking.

TOP 10 Run-Rated Male Athletes

Bart Aernouts from Belgium is the surprise leader in the men’s run rating. He has posted a 2:42 in Melbourne and a 2:47 in Kona – if his swim and bike improve a bit further, he can certainly win a smaller IM race. If it weren’t for his 3h-run in Kona, Crowie would have lead this ranking. He also posted the fastest run-split of 2012 with a 2:38:46 in Melbourne.

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Last Race	# Races
1	Bart Aernouts	BEL	02:47:49	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	2
2	Craig Alexander	AUS	02:48:51	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	9
3	Clemente Alonso-McKernan	ESP	02:49:44	IM Germany on 2012-07-08	5
4	Eneko Llanos	ESP	02:51:24	IM Melbourne on 2012-03-24	14
5	Marino Vanhoenacker	BEL	02:51:48	IM Germany on 2012-07-08	12
6	Paul Matthews	AUS	02:51:53	IM Arizona on 2012-11-18	2
7	Timo Bracht	GER	02:52:48	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	14
8	Chris McCormack	AUS	02:53:27	IM Cairns on 2012-06-02	13
9	Hans Nilsson	DEN	02:53:44	Challenge Roth on 2012-07-08	2
10	Cameron Brown	NZL	02:53:48	Challenge Roth on 2012-07-08	16

TOP 10 Run-Rated Female Athletes

On the women’s side, Rinnie still has the best run in the scene – and by quite a large margin. Cait Snow is another great runner – she’s had the fastest 2012 run with a 2:51:46 in Texas. Similar to Sonja Tajsich, she is usually too far back after the bike to win big races. There are a lot of younger athletes that are still improving, so I expect to see a lot of change in the next years in this ranking.

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Last Race	# Races
1	Mirinda Carfrae	AUS	03:00:53	IM Florida on 2012-11-03	7
2	Caitlin Snow	USA	03:03:49	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	13
3	Sonja Tajsich	GER	03:06:59	IM Cozumel on 2012-11-25	12
4	Beth Walsh	USA	03:07:21	IM Cozumel on 2012-11-25	3
5	Kristin Moeller	GER	03:08:55	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	7
6	Elizabeth Lyles	USA	03:08:56	IM Cozumel on 2012-11-25	2
7	Yvonne Van Vlerken	AUT	03:09:12	IM Florida on 2012-11-03	7
8	Linsey Corbin	USA	03:10:59	IM Arizona on 2012-11-18	14
9	Kelly Williamson	USA	03:11:21	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	7
10	Erika Csomor	HUN	03:12:33	IM Switzerland on 2012-07-15	18

“Geeky” Interview on IMTalk podcast

January 6, 2013

While I was working on my 2012 Rating Report, Bevan and John from IMTalk gave me the chance to offer some of the content to their listeners. (I love listening to IMTalk myself, though it feels a bit strange to listen to yourself at double speed when running.) If you haven’t listened yet, give it a try, I’m sure you’ll enjoy it! Here’s the link to the episode:

IMTalk Episode 342

Rating Analysis 2012

January 4, 2013

As part of my recently released 2012 Rating Report (get your copy here), I’m analyzing the TOP 10 ratings at the end of 2012. Here’s an excerpt looking at the TOP 10 Overall Ratings with my #1 rated athletes Andreas Raelert and Mirinda Carfrae.

TOP 10 Rated Male Athletes

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Last Race	# Races
1	Andreas Raelert	GER	08:15:26	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	10
2	Craig Alexander	AUS	08:16:48	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	9
3	Marino Vanhoenacker	BEL	08:17:06	IM Germany on 2012-07-08	13
4	Eneko Llanos	ESP	08:20:19	IM Melbourne on 2012-03-24	17
5	Sebastian Kienle	GER	08:20:53	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	5
6	Timo Bracht	GER	08:21:20	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	17
7	Faris Al-Sultan	GER	08:24:12	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	15
8	David Dellow	AUS	08:25:32	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	4
9	Cameron Brown	NZL	08:26:50	Challenge Roth on 2012-07-08	19
10	Chris McCormack	AUS	08:27:19	IM Cairns on 2012-06-02	15

Compared to last year, Andreas Raelert held on to his first spot in the rankings, though his lead has gotten much smaller. He just delivers one strong season after another, but this year lacked a big highlight (in 2011 he set a new World Record time in Roth) – and I’m sure he will continue to search for ways to climb to the top spot in Kona. After his great performance in Melbourne Craig Alexander was in first place for most of the season, but after his sub-par Kona race, he fell back again to the #2 spot.

Marino Vanhoenacker and Eneko Llanos probably have mixed feelings about their season. They’ve both had good results (Marino winning in Frankfurt, Eneko having a good result in Melbourne and in his hometown of Vitoria in the ITU long distance), but as in 2011 both had disappointing DNFs in Kona.

Sebastian Kienle and David Dellow are clearly athletes on the rise that had a great 2012 season. Sebastian had an impressive autumn (winning the 70.3 championships and putting his stamp on Kona), David raced strong in Melbourne, won Cairns and had a TOP10 result in Kona.

Timo Bracht and Faris Al-Sultan are two very solid German racers. They continue to win races (Timo in Western Australia, Faris in Austria) and place well in Kona – but are they ever going to contend again for a Kona win? Cameron Brown is another “older” athlete – he’s had a frustrating DNS in Kona, but overall had a good 2012 season with fast times in Melbourne and Roth.

Chris McCormack is back to IM racing after trying to qualify for the Olympics. He just “ticked the box” in finishing Cairns, then wasn’t on form in Kona (seems that his altitude prep didn’t go as planned) – but he’ll be back for 2013 and I’m sure he wants to say goodbye to Kona with a good result.

Last year we also had Dirk Bockel and Rasmus Henning in the TOP10. Dirk had a not-so-good end to the year: His injury-hampered Kona had him finish in a solid 10th place, but trying to score some points in Cozumel ended in a 4:30 run and a steep increase in his rating. He’ll be back for more in 2013 – in contrast to Rasmus who ended his career. He’s had races in Texas and Kona not quite going to plan (each with 3:1x marathons), then said an emotional goodbye in Kona.

TOP 10 Rated Female Athletes

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Last Race	# Races
1	Mirinda Carfrae	AUS	09:12:34	IM Florida on 2012-11-03	7
2	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	09:15:32	IM Cozumel on 2012-11-25	8
3	Caroline Steffen	SUI	09:16:43	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	13
4	Yvonne Van Vlerken	AUT	09:17:11	IM Florida on 2012-11-03	9
5	Rachel Joyce	GBR	09:19:30	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	11
6	Sonja Tajsich	GER	09:22:42	IM Cozumel on 2012-11-25	13
7	Linsey Corbin	USA	09:23:56	IM Arizona on 2012-11-18	14
8	Amy Marsh	USA	09:25:49	IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13	8
9	Rebekah Keat	AUS	09:26:14	IM Western Australia on 2012-12-09	19
10	Leanda Cave	GBR	09:26:26	IM Arizona on 2012-11-18	12

In the women’s ranking, we see a bit more change than on the men’s side. This is due to athletes ending their racing careers (Chrissie Wellington, Karin Thürig) or being injured (Julie Dibens, Catriona Morrison).

Mirinda Carfrae “inherited” the #1 spot from Chrissie. She struggled a bit during this year and while placing 3rd did not have the Kona she wanted. She’s also the only athlete in the TOP 10 who did not improve her rating this year. I hope she’s coming back strong for 2013, as her fantastic run makes her races very interesting to follow.

Mary Beth Ellis is still unbeaten in an Ironman outside of Kona. She was not as over-raced as last year, but came up just short in Kona. The same can be said for Caroline Steffen. She had a great 2012 season and improved her rating by leaps and bounds, but will not be satisfied with her 2nd place in Kona.

Yvonne Van Vlerken (now racing for Austria and training in Siri Lindley’s group) had a string of DNFs, but then managed to win IM Florida in November (only to follow up with another DNF in Cozumel). When she’s on form she can beat anyone, but her results are not steady enough.

Rachel Joyce also had a 2012 great season, but was sick again in Kona – barely recovering to finish 11th and already in a good position to qualify. I’m looking forward to when she races healthy in Kona!

I always feel that Sonja Tajsich is a bit under the radar. Her swim is really bad for a PRO (1:10 in Kona, 1:13 in Cozumel), so she isn’t near the front until the end of the run – but she usually has the fastest run split.

Linsey Corbin continues to move up the ranking. With two wins this year (Austria and Arizona) and a solid 8th in Hawaii she is well positioned for big things in 2013. Amy Marsh was not able to win another Ironman this year, but has posted three solid results this year and with a 10th place in Kona shouldn’t have a problem to qualify. Hopefully she can use the time to improve her run!

I’m not really sure how to sum up Rebekah Keat’s season. She has had some good results (2nd places in New York and Western Australia) so you can’t call it a disappointment. However, for an athlete that has posted a world-class sub-8:40 time, you have to think that she has a bigger potential that what she has shown this year.

Leanda Cave had the perfect Kona race, coming from behind to win it on the run. As last year, she doubled up in Arizona and has secured her Kona slot, so she is free to plan her season as she likes. She’s had some slower results in the past so she is not placed as high as her current capabilities indicate.

« Previous
1
…
298
299
300
301
302
…
341
Next »