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Challenge Wanaka 2014 (Jan 18th) – Predictions

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:47:56 04:58:14 02:59:59 08:51:18
2 Jamie Whyte NZL 00:55:05 04:52:42 03:03:45 08:55:43
3 Chris McCormack AUS 00:55:07 04:58:44 02:59:52 08:58:05

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Gina Crawford NZL 00:59:14 05:08:30 03:11:07 09:24:31
2 Candice Hammond NZL 01:06:52 05:23:07 03:09:43 09:44:22
3 Joanna Lawn NZL 00:59:46 05:24:20 03:15:08 09:44:30

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:34:41 Richard Ussher 2010-01-16
Swim overall 00:47:44 Kieran Doe 2012-01-21
Bike overall 04:42:26 Richard Ussher 2010-01-16
Run overall 02:48:04 Marc Pschebizin 2008-01-19
Total female 09:24:31 Gina Crawford 2013-01-19
Swim female 00:50:01 Gina Ferguson 2008-01-19
Bike female 05:08:30 Gina Crawford 2013-01-19
Run female 03:08:59 Rebekah Keat 2010-01-16

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Wanaka is – 03:21.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Wanaka

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2007 03:50 00:36 -07:25 05:03 6 03:50 00:36 -07:25 05:03
2008 -00:26 01:14 -10:09 00:51 10 01:42 00:55 -08:47 02:57
2009 03:58 -03:36 -01:43 03:34 11 02:27 -00:35 -06:26 03:09
2010 00:42 -01:48 -01:13 03:14 13 02:01 -00:53 -05:07 03:10
2011 -23:44 -02:45 -24:22 -03:28 13 -03:08 -01:16 -08:58 01:51
2012 -08:36 -01:12 -07:51 -03:00 15 -04:03 -01:15 -08:47 01:02
2013 00:52 -05:41 -08:00 02:39 13 -03:21 -01:53 -08:40 01:16

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 3 Richard Ussher NZL 08:43:05 08:39:52 00:54:34 04:42:05 02:57:02 17
2 12 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:52:07 08:48:50 00:50:23 04:48:19 02:59:05 45
3 5 Matty White AUS 09:05:07 09:01:46 00:51:22 04:47:40 03:10:58 93
4 1 Dylan McNeice NZL 09:07:23 09:04:01 00:44:47 04:51:55 03:11:18 102
5 2 Keegan Williams NZL 09:09:36 09:06:13 00:52:01 04:50:05 03:08:53 114
6 6 Carl Read NZL 09:11:12 09:07:48 00:53:36 04:57:45 03:01:32 122
7 17 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:22:06 09:18:38 00:47:53 04:56:31 03:22:31 163
8 7 Simon Cochrane NZL 09:23:57 09:20:29 00:53:03 05:02:57 03:07:58 169
9 4 Scott Defilippis USA 09:24:32 09:21:03 00:56:37 05:01:57 03:04:33 174
10 8 Paul Hawkins GBR 09:34:11 09:30:39 00:58:33 05:28:51 03:20:28 196
11 15 Timothy Beardall AUS 10:13:12 10:09:26 01:00:43 04:55:33 03:58:53 329
  16 Dougal Allan NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
  14 Matt Burgess NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
  13 Ben Logan NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
  10 Jaroslav Kovacic SLO n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 50 Gina Crawford NZL 09:38:27 09:34:53 00:51:51 05:14:07 03:12:44 11
2 51 Candice Hammond NZL 09:54:05 09:50:26 01:00:45 05:15:56 03:17:00 37
3 53 Carrie Lester AUS 09:57:33 09:53:52 00:56:00 05:16:56 03:25:04 47
4 52 Simone Maier GER 10:12:11 10:08:25 01:04:17 05:22:55 03:20:52 78
5 54 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 10:26:36 10:22:45 00:58:39 05:20:37 03:43:51 100
  55 Larisa Marsh NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Last year’s winner Dylan McNeice is back to defend his title, but he faces strong competition in Richard Ussher (taking another stab at Ironman racing), Courtney Ogden, Matty White and Keegan Williams:

  • Richard Ussher: 37% (2-1)
  • Courtney Ogden: 28% (3-1)
  • Dylan McNeice: 13% (7-1)
  • Matty White: 10% (9-1)
  • Keegan Williams: 5% (18-1)
  • Scott Defilippis: 4% (25-1)

Female Race Participants

Gina Crawford is also back, her chances to defend her title are much better:

  • Gina Crawford: 67% (1-1)
  • Candice Hammond: 15% (6-1)
  • Carrie Lester: 14% (6-1)
  • Simone Maier: 3% (34-1)

2013 Tri Trivia

I’ve started to work on my „2013 Rating Report“, looking back on the Ironman-distance races of 2013 and my analysis on the results. You can already pre-order the report and receive it as soon as it’s available!

As part of the work for the report, I’ve come across some interesting facts, and over the next days will ask ten trivia questions as a „countdown“ to the release of the report. (I will amend this post from day to day. You can enter your answers as comments, or send them to @ThRadde on twitter.)

  1. Who had the fastest Ironman-distance times of 2013 (either man or woman)?
  2. Which IM races had the smallest and largest number of pro finishers?
  3. What’s the shortest time between two Ironman wins?
  4. In 2013 we’ve seen 6 sub-8h finishes (for the men) and 21 sub-9h finishes (for the women). Which 2013 race had the most of these?
  5. Who posted the fastest marathon times in 2013 (man or woman)?
  6. Which races in 2013 had the closest and widest margin between the male and female winners (Pros only)?
  7. Which races in 2013 had the closest and widest margin between the winner and runner-up (Pros only)?
  8. Which country had the most Pro IM wins in 2013?
  9. Who had the slowest swim when winning a Pro IM in 2013 (men or women)?
  10. Who overcame the biggest deficit after the bike to win an IM in 2013 (men or women)?

The report includes the answers to the questions, and is now available: Please go to the 2013 TriRating Report page.

Ironman Western Australia 2013 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Conditions in Western Australia seemed to have been pretty good: An adjustment of 16:28 was the fastest race since the record-breaking year of 2007. The conditions of both the bike and the run were fast, resulting in almost a new women’s course record.

Male Race Results

Pre-race favorite Andreas Raelert had another frustrating DNF (apparently the same problems as in Hawaii), while home-boy Luke Bell also didn’t finish. After being sick in Kona, David Dellow had a was just a little bit off. But you have to have a solid day to win an Ironman, as there are always a few athletes with a fantastic day. This time, it was Jeremy Jurkiewicz: He is usually a stellar runner (again posting the fastest run-split), but this time he was already leading after T2!

WAWinner

Rank

 

 Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 00:47:03 04:29:17 02:48:18 08:08:16 -11:13
2 Markus Thomschke GER 00:53:17 04:27:16 02:51:23 08:16:01 -25:32
3 David Dellow AUS 00:48:16 04:32:34 02:54:26 08:19:10 08:17
4 Todd Israel AUS 00:49:43 04:36:07 02:52:18 08:22:39 -24:18
5 Matty White AUS 00:53:13 04:27:14 03:01:46 08:25:29 -15:27
6 Matt Burton AUS 00:54:16 04:25:25 03:01:57 08:25:42 n/a
7 Alex Reithmeier AUS 00:48:19 04:36:35 03:05:59 08:34:53 n/a
8 Guy Crawford NZL 00:48:14 04:32:03 03:12:42 08:36:31 -21:45
9 Benjamin Williams USA 00:53:33 04:48:43 02:55:26 08:41:19 n/a
10 Joshua Rix AUS 00:49:49 04:33:39 03:15:05 08:42:43 -06:54
11 Eduardo Sturla ARG 00:54:23 04:41:30 03:06:56 08:47:00 15:22
12 Jimmy Johnsen DEN 00:49:57 04:52:36 03:08:43 08:55:34 29:14
13 Timothy Molesworth AUS 01:11:23 04:58:14 02:59:09 09:14:30 n/a
14 Johan Borg AUS 00:53:15 04:39:28 03:54:37 09:31:15 37:27

Female Race Results

The run carried the day on the women’s side as well: Elizabeth Lyles ran through the field, and posted a sub-9h result to win the race in front of German Mareen Hufe (leading into T2) and Lisa Marangon who was leading the race in the early parts of the bike:

WAWomen

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Elizabeth Lyles USA 00:57:11 04:58:21 03:00:37 08:59:44 -18:56
2 Mareen Hufe GER 00:59:49 04:47:53 03:16:24 09:08:00 -12:27
3 Lisa Marangon AUS 00:54:10 04:56:20 03:24:29 09:19:29 -36:54
4 Michelle Bremer NZL 00:59:41 04:58:20 03:24:00 09:25:58 00:25
5 Melanie Burke NZL 01:05:08 04:59:29 03:17:43 09:27:08 -27:38
6 Erin Furness NZL 00:59:52 05:10:48 03:17:57 09:33:20 -33:47
7 Michelle Duffield AUS 00:59:53 05:16:52 03:21:45 09:43:12 n/a
8 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 01:05:03 05:20:32 03:41:20 10:11:21 n/a

Photo Credit: Ironman.com

Ironman Cozumel 2013 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

The main influence on the Cozumel times was the swim: The course was changed to be safer after high waves in the days before the race, however that also meant that the course was shortened to 3.1k (1.9 miles). Of course, this resulted in pretty quick times (adjustment of 13:45). But even though the swim was shorter, the bike and run times were pretty normal. (My interpretation is that the swim must still have been pretty taxing.) This is quite different from what I’ve seen in Melbourne swim (where the swim was significantly shortened to 1.5k), and at first I thought that I’d include the Cozumel times in my ratings. But a closer analysis showed some weird effects: For example, Rachel’s winning time would have been a better performance than her 2nd place in Kona. So I’ve decided to list the Cozumel results, but not include them in my ratings.

Male Race Results

Tyler Butterfield and Eneko Llanos had good races after Kona, pretty much making sure that they re-qualify for Kona:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Michael Weiss AUT 00:36:54 04:22:20 02:51:34 07:55:23 -22:07
2 Tyler Butterfield BMU 00:34:12 04:35:14 02:49:48 08:02:42 -15:37
3 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:34:19 04:34:40 02:52:38 08:05:21 -02:43
4 Marek Jaskolka POL 00:34:14 04:46:16 02:49:52 08:13:29 -20:50
5 Nils Frommhold GER 00:32:53 05:11:36 03:07:38 08:20:16 22:12
6 Justin Daerr USA 08:27:11 -06:34
7 Peru Alfaro ESP 05:15:27 03:12:22 08:29:04 n/a
8 Fabio Carvalho BRA 00:34:11 04:59:53 02:53:11 08:31:12 -34:16
9 Anton Blokhin UKR 00:34:15 04:40:21 03:15:50 08:34:06 03:54
10 Todd Skipworth AUS 00:32:49 05:13:29 03:21:57 08:36:58 -02:22
11 Bruno Clerbout BEL 00:36:54 04:56:54 03:03:35 08:40:58 -02:14
12 AJ Baucco USA 00:36:48 04:57:03 03:05:48 08:43:06 -02:06
13 Thiago Vinhal BRA 00:34:22 04:58:47 03:05:55 08:43:51 -02:32
14 Olivier Cardoen BEL 00:37:36 04:45:47 03:24:24 08:51:36 -13:03
15 Andres Castillo COL 00:34:03 04:59:38 03:21:27 08:58:45 08:16
16 Allan Villanueva MEX 05:05:48 03:10:21 08:59:22 -05:32
17 Aubrey Aldy USA 05:11:23 03:19:55 09:18:53 -22:33
18 Ezequiel Morales ARG 00:37:53 05:01:59 03:32:12 09:20:06 39:28
19 Sergio Quezada MEX 00:34:22 04:59:04 03:44:16 09:22:52 -29:23
20 Jozef Vrabel SVK 00:38:01 05:17:27 03:39:09 09:39:29 12:21
21 Reinaldo Oliveira BRA 00:40:36 05:14:21 03:38:46 09:40:23 -27:05
22 Ivan Tejero Vazquez ESP 00:34:17 04:53:52 04:14:36 09:47:28 11:05
23 Peter Kotland USA 00:38:07 05:06:32 04:09:18 09:58:46 14:53

Female Race Results

Rachel Joyce closed the year with another win, while Jessie Donavan ran through most of the field for second. Amanda Stevens was close to the for most of the day and held on to the final osmium spot:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Rachel Joyce GBR 00:36:59 05:03:41 03:07:10 08:52:28 -07:11
2 Jessie Donavan USA 00:44:46 05:00:35 03:12:02 09:01:12 -17:48
3 Amanda Stevens USA 00:34:17 05:06:18 03:21:47 09:06:40 -16:18
4 Celine Schaerer SUI 00:34:18 05:17:21 03:16:33 09:12:40 08:48
5 Bree Wee USA 00:38:15 05:13:45 03:19:55 09:16:26 -18:22
6 Ashley Clifford USA 00:37:11 05:23:46 03:13:44 09:19:15 -03:41
7 Saleta Castro ESP 05:21:06 03:14:32 09:19:32 -38:55
8 Jackie Arendt USA 00:37:22 05:14:21 03:31:13 09:27:05 -10:14
9 Monique Grossrieder SUI 05:16:35 03:24:17 09:29:57 -28:21
10 Malaika Homo USA 00:38:07 05:14:09 03:37:07 09:33:57 -05:17
11 Amy Javens USA 00:49:21 05:10:09 03:31:49 09:36:08 n/a
12 Astrid Ganzow GER 05:09:09 03:47:59 09:44:03 n/a
13 Anne Basso FRA 05:25:56 03:36:33 09:47:10 -08:25
14 Jocelyn Cornman USA 00:42:42 05:40:09 03:21:55 09:49:51 n/a
15 Kristina Wiegand GER 00:44:09 05:39:41 03:24:53 09:53:39 -33:07
16 Tami Ritchie USA 00:37:01 05:35:40 03:57:58 10:16:04 -10:40
17 Jennifer Lentzke CAN 00:49:14 05:29:30 03:55:51 10:20:09 -37:57
18 Steffi Steinberg GER 00:50:06 06:01:13 03:51:22 10:46:49 38:25
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