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Race Posts – Explaining the Types and Data

TriRating’s main feature is data about Ironman-distance races and my analysis of these results. This post describes the different types of race posts and the data in them.

Entry List

This is usually my first post about a specific race. A couple of weeks out there is information about which Professionals have registered for a race. At this point, the list is not final yet – there are still some more athletes that can register, and some athletes that registered may withdraw before race day.

Here’s a sample screenshot:

EntryList

The list shows the Pros that have entered a race, ordered by their bib number (when already available), their KPR points (if it’s an Ironman® race) or their last name.

The following details are shown:

  • Name: The full name of the athletes (first name and last name )
  • Nation: The nationality of the athlete (sometimes different from the official lists that often show where the athletes is currently residing)
  • KPR points: The total Kona Qualifying points the athlete has accumulated at the time I publish the entry list
  • KPR races: The number of Ironman and 70.3 races that the athlete’s KPR points are coming from. For example, “3+1” for Harry Wiltshire means that he already has three Ironman races and one 70.3 race in his total. (Remember that only up to four races – up to three IMs and up to two 70.3s – can contribute to an athlete’s total.) The points in brackets show the lowest scoring race from each category, so “(235/500)” for Harry mean that his worst IM score is 235 points, and his worst 70.3 score is 500 points – these are scores that could get bumped from the total when he tries to add another race to his total.
Depending on the information available, the Entry List may also show
  • Bib number
  • Age of the athlete on race day
I won’t be publishing entry lists for all races, as not all races make this information available in a timely fashion. Ironman is usually posting Entry Lists roughly four weeks out from a race.

Seedings

After a race has been closed for entry by Professionals, a start list is posted by the race organizer, typically two weeks before a race. Late entries are possible but pretty rare, late withdrawals are much more common. Also, athletes often register for a number of races within a short time, giving them a back-up race in case something happens in the first race they target.

Here’s a sample seeding (from the female race at IM New Zealand 2017):

Seeding

This list shows many more details than an entry list:

  • Rank: The expected place of this athlete based on everyone’s previous results (and every athlete on the start list starting and finishing the race) and their corresponding expected time (see below).
  • Bib: The bib number as assigned by the race (if the information in available)
  • Name: The full name of the athlete (first name and last name)
  • Nation: The nationality of the athlete (sometimes different from the official lists that often show where the athletes is currently residing)
  • Expected Time: The time I expect an athlete to finish on the course of the race, based on the athlete’s previous results and how fast or how slow the course is, also favoring results from the course.
    The background color shows who are the fastest athletes (dark red – expected time within 12 minutes of the projected winner) and who are close (lighter red – expected time within 25 minutes).
  • Rating: The weighted average of an athlete’s previous performances. This is more stable than the expected time (i.e. older results are not discounted quite as much) and course-neutral. For example, Yvonne Van Vlerken has a better rating than Meredith Kessler, but as Meredith has performed extremely well in Taupo, her expected time is the fastest.
  • Expected Swim, Bike and Run: Similar to the Expected Time, but broken down for each of the legs and the athlete’s strengths and weaknesses. Again, the background color is used to show the expected fastest athletes in each of the legs.
  • Consistency: The consistency shows how often an athlete has performed to the expected times. The first number (e.g. “60%” for Meredith) indicates how often the athlete was close to the expected time (roughly within 20 minutes), the second number (“+10%”) how often she was faster and the third number (“-30%”) how often she had a sub-par race (including DNFs). The last number, shown in brackets (“(26)”) shows the total number of IM-distance races an athlete has started. You can find a longer discussion of the consistency in this post.
  • Overall: The place the athlete has in the overall rankings. Numbers shown in brackets (e.g. “(52)” for Emma Bilham) indicate where an athlete would be ranked, but that he/she does not currently have a valid rating (requiring one finish within the last year and at least three finishes).

Result Analysis

Once the race has been completed, I publish the results with my analysis of how the athlete performed, usually within a day or two after the race has been held.

Here’s an example from the female race at Challenge Wanaka 2017:

Results

The following details are listed:

  • Rank: The position the athlete finished in the professional race.
  • Name: The full name of the athlete, depending on how the athlete has performed relative to the expected time and the conditions on race, the name is shown in red (more than 3 minutes slower), in green (more than three minutes faster) or black (within three minutes of the expected time).
  • Nation: The nationality of the athlete
  • Swim, Bike and Run: The times for the swim, bike and run legs, again colored according to how well the athlete performed on race day. The background color is used to indicate who had the fastest time in each leg (dark green) and who was close (lighter green).
  • Time: The “clock time” of an athlete’s finish at this race. A “DNF” indicates that the athlete didn’t finish the race, the splits are given as far as the athlete has completed the race.
  • Diff to expected: The difference of the total time of an athlete compared to the expected time (based on the conditions on race day).
  • Prize Money: The prize money the athlete has earned for his finish in the race.
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Announcing the TriRating Report 2016

2016 Book Cover Mockup SmallI’ve been busy working on my free TriRating Report 2016, an 80-page PDF filled with results, data, and analysis about the 2016 season. Please use the URL https://gum.co/2016RatingReport to get your copy (or click on the image on the right).

Read about my male and female “Athletes of the Year” and “Rookies of the Year”, as well as the athletes receiving the “Bookend Award”, “Persistence Award” and “Steady Progress Awards”. Of course the report also contains the Top 10 Ratings (overall and individually for swim, bike and run), the fastest 2016 times and best performances, 2016 Money Lists and a look forward to the 2017 racing season and to Kona 2017.

I’m sure that you’ll like what I’ve put together, so order today to re-live the 2016 season and get fired up for the upcoming 2017 races! The report is available for free, but you can show your support of my work by donating an amount of your choice. As always, thank you for your feedback and support!

2017 KPR Observer Now Available

2017 Title ThumbI have just released the 2017 edition of the KPR Observer, following Kona qualifying for the Professional athletes.

The Kona Pro Ranking (or KPR for short) is the system used to determine which Professional triathletes qualify for the Ironman World Championships in Kona. The 2017 KPR Observer consists of an Initial Information Package about the KPR and ongoing updates during the season.

The Initial Information Package (delivered at the time of purchase) contains:

  • a description of how the KPR works in qualifying Pros for Kona
  • changes to the 2017 rules and their implications
  • base projections for the men’s and women’s cutoff
  • graphs and descriptions of the current KPR standings

During the season, there will be at least six EMail Updates (and probably ten) about the KPR Standings, who is already in, who is close to qualifying, how many slots are still open and updated estimates of where the cutoffs will occur.

To give you a short glimpse of the material in the KPR Observer, here is a look at the women’s and men’s KPR rankings at the end of the 2016 racing season:

If you want to qualify as a Pro, coach a Pro athlete, write about professional Ironman racing or are otherwise interested in the KPR, this is must-read information! The time you’ll save with the KPR Observer is easily worth the price of 29$ for the full season.

(If you are a Professional athlete looking to qualify for Kona, please send an email to thorsten@trirating.com to receive information about a complimentary copy.)

Order today at https://gum.co/2017KPR or click on the button below:

Get 2017 KPR Observer

Ironman Hawaii 2016 – How to Follow the Race

Kona2016

Just a few hours before the start of the “2016 Ironman World Championships” here is some information on how to follow the race.

First, here are the start times for the Pro races and the rough times when the first athletes are expected to hit T1, T2 and are likely to cross the finish line:

  • 6:25am Men’s Pro Start
  • 6:30am Women’s Pro Start
  • 7:15am First Man in T1
  • 7:22am First Woman in T1
  • 11:40am First Man in T2
  • 12:15pm First Woman in T2
  • 2:30pm First Man to Finish (would be 8:05 finish – course record is 8:03:56 by Craig Alexander from 2011)
  • 3:25pm Fist Woman to Finish (would be 8:55 finish – course record is 8:52:14 by Mirinda Carfrae from 2013)

These times are local times in Kona (Hawaii Standard Time). Just to give the time differences to a few other popular places (and the corresponding start time for the male Pro race):

  • +3 hours to US West Coast – race starts 9:25am local time
  • +6 hours to US East Coast – race starts 12:25pm local time
  • +11 hours to UK – race starts 5:25pm local time
  • +12 hours to Germany – race starts 6:25pm local time
  • +21 hours to Australia (Sydney) – race starts 3:25am local time on Sunday
  • +23 hours to New Zealand – race starts 5:25am local time on Sunday

Ironman will have a live stream hosted by Greg Welch and Mike Lovato, there will also be a “Live Blog” on the site. For me in Germany I also have the chance to watch the race on German TV, they have their own German commentary with triathlon experts and additional cameras to catch more German athletes during the race. The German language coverage will also be streamed through sportschau.de. I’m not aware of any other nations covering the race live on one of their TV stations, as usual the NBC coverage won’t be available until a few weeks after the race.

In addition to the information on the live streams there is always lots of information on Twitter, and I’ll also be posting on TriRating.com during the race with preliminary analysis after the field hits T1 (so I can analyze the swim) and the front of the field has started the run (so I can analyze the bike and project an outcome based on what athletes “normally” run). In the days before the race I have already put together a long list of free Kona resources including blog posts and articles by the triathlon press and a number of interesting and inspiring videos.

If you haven’t downloaded my Kona Rating Report yet, you should do so before the race and have a look through the data and athlete portraits. I’m sure it’ll make following the race much more enjoyable as you’ll be able to get an understanding of each athlete’s strength and weaknesses – and you can also refer to it during the race when some not quite as well known shows up at the front of the race. The Report is still available for free here , it has been downloaded more than 1.300 times by now, and I’m very grateful for the donations to support my work.

To all my friends racing in Kona – have an awesome day!

Announcing the 2016 Kona Rating Report

KPRTitle

For the 2016 Ironman World Championships in Kona I have released a 120+-page Rating Report with tons of information:

  • Detailed results and analysis of last year’s race
  • Information about the Kona course, top Kona finishers and the current course records
  • The Kona 2016 start list and my predictions and odds for the Pro athletes
  • How the race may unfold and what to watch for when the race is going on
  • Details about each Pro including their input and a lot of photos they have supplied

The Report is available for free, but it would be great if you can support my work before Kona and during the year by donating an amount of your choice, for example the list price of a regular tri magazine (around 7$).

The Kona Rating Report is the ideal information to have when following the Ironman Kona coverage!

Get The Kona Report

Here’s what others have said about the Report:

  • IMTalkLogo
    “Interview: We get Thorsten ‘The Geek’ from TriRating.com on the show again. We talk about Kona and his amazing 2016 Kona Rating Report” in Episode 535 of the IMTalk podcast.
  • LavaLogo
    “The highly-detailed document, complete with graphical representations of the data Radde has collected, brings Moneyball to multisport.” (Lava Magazine in their post about the Report)
  • The Report received a lot of love on Social Media .. just a few of the tweets:
    SusanTweet
    MarcoTweetBevanTweetLisaTweetTimTweetTawneeTweetSarahTweetRobTweetTJTweetCarolineTweetYvonneTweetAstridTweet

Get The Kona Report

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