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September 2015

Ironman Wales 2015 (September 13th) – Predictions

IMWalesLogo

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Jeremy Jurkiewicz (FRA) 09:04:21 Kristin Moeller (GER) 10:01:19
2012 Sylvain Rota (FRA) 08:52:43 Regula Rohrbach (SUI) 09:45:09
2013 Scott Neyedli (GBR) 09:09:10 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 09:51:21
2014 Matt Trautman (ZAF) 09:07:28 Amy Forshaw (GBR) 10:57:26

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Matt Trautman ZAF 00:51:54 05:03:29 03:04:44 09:07:28
2 Fraser Cartmell GBR 00:51:58 05:03:23 03:07:21 09:10:16
3 Peru Alfaro ESP 00:48:29 05:12:17 03:09:09 09:18:28

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Amy Forshaw GBR 01:08:13 06:06:44 03:33:10 10:57:26
2 Julia Bohn GER 01:08:52 06:23:06 03:37:38 11:20:54

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:52:43 Sylvain Rota 2012-09-16
Swim overall 00:44:07 Harry Wiltshire 2012-09-16
Swim overall 00:44:07 Daniel Halksworth 2012-09-16
Bike overall 05:03:23 Fraser Cartmell 2014-09-14
Run overall 02:48:01 Jeremy Jurkiewicz 2011-09-11
Total female 09:45:09 Regula Rohrbach 2012-09-16
Swim female 00:47:55 Anja Beranek 2011-09-11
Bike female 05:31:36 Lucy Gossage 2013-09-08
Run female 03:02:28 Kristin Moeller 2011-09-11

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Wales is -26:14.

Race Adjustments for IM Wales

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 -27:50 04:20 -25:30 00:21 20 -27:50 04:20 -25:30 00:21
2012 -01:19 04:44 -23:33 17:26 22 -14:35 04:32 -24:31 08:54
2013 -30:12 00:55 -28:36 -02:36 22 -19:47 03:20 -25:53 05:04
2014 -45:34 -03:51 -28:41 -05:49 11 -26:14 01:32 -26:35 02:20

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Wales is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 24 Andrej Vistica CRO 09:10:02 08:46:15 00:51:40 05:10:14 03:03:07 69
2 1 Markus Thomschke GER 09:16:14 09:01:38 00:51:36 05:11:51 03:07:46 130
3 6 Mauro Baertsch SUI 09:16:51 09:01:07 00:52:45 05:18:22 03:00:44 127
4 19 Gudmund Snilstveit NOR 09:17:22 09:02:24 00:53:52 05:16:08 03:02:23 134
5 5 Harry Wiltshire GBR 09:18:48 08:57:09 00:46:29 05:18:16 03:09:03 115
6 3 Nick Baldwin SEY 09:21:11 09:03:36 00:51:23 05:18:00 03:06:49 141
7 15 Mike Schifferle SUI 09:22:10 09:01:10 00:58:39 05:15:50 03:02:41 128
8 17 Peter Seidel GER 09:25:24 09:10:03 00:00:00 00:00:00 00:00:00 (165)
9 2 Elliot Holtham CAN 09:28:44 09:21:11 00:52:16 05:22:58 03:08:30 219
10 7 AJ Baucco USA 09:31:02 09:10:18 00:51:27 05:21:53 03:12:42 167
11 21 Tohara Kaito JPN 09:39:08 09:13:38 00:53:38 05:37:48 03:02:42 185
12 12 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:42:20 09:42:25 00:51:48 05:29:55 03:15:37 (302)
13 8 James Brown GBR 09:44:18 09:38:05 00:58:48 05:27:28 03:13:01 289
14 4 Oliver Simon GBR 09:47:57 09:29:58 00:48:28 05:24:47 03:29:42 248
15 18 Matthew Sheeks USA 09:50:33 09:32:49 00:55:45 05:02:06 03:47:42 263
16 22 Craig Twigg GBR 09:52:13 09:52:43 00:52:17 05:19:09 03:35:47 345
17 23 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 09:56:40 09:31:17 00:56:09 05:33:55 03:21:37 257
18 16 Christoph Schlagbauer AUT 11:09:17 10:51:07 00:58:15 05:32:57 04:33:06 (469)
19 10 Christian Funk GER 11:25:06 11:10:56 01:22:41 06:19:48 03:37:37 (473)
9 Mark Cotter CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
11 Frederic Garcia FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
13 Dominic Rohan-Gates GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
14 Frederic Schaffner FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
20 Jesse Thomas USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 34 Anja Beranek GER 09:46:54 09:19:01 00:50:28 05:32:07 03:19:20 12
2 35 Emma Pooley GBR 10:12:06 09:43:42 01:05:49 05:38:36 03:22:40 52
3 43 Tineke Van den Berg NED 10:13:29 10:02:13 01:04:22 05:41:22 03:22:44 (95)
4 36 Jeanne Collonge FRA 10:16:24 10:01:57 00:56:40 05:47:45 03:27:00 94
5 40 Katja Konschak GER 10:17:07 10:01:08 00:51:25 06:03:10 03:17:32 91
6 33 Caroline Livesey GBR 10:26:35 09:58:38 00:59:46 05:55:21 03:26:28 85
7 37 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 10:28:09 10:11:05 00:57:25 06:02:11 03:23:33 (114)
8 44 Verena Walter GER 10:30:36 10:03:44 00:57:49 05:54:01 03:33:46 100
9 32 Tine Holst DEN 10:31:56 10:07:05 01:03:30 05:54:07 03:29:19 109
10 38 Eleanor Haresign GBR 10:32:16 10:05:02 00:58:11 05:57:04 03:32:01 105
11 39 Alice Hector GBR 10:34:23 10:15:46 00:55:24 06:13:46 03:20:13 (128)
12 31 Amy Forshaw GBR 10:43:09 10:36:26 01:02:00 06:07:42 03:28:27 162
13 42 Alena Stevens SVK 10:47:42 10:21:28 01:00:08 06:09:21 03:33:13 143
41 Carol Anne Bridge GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

There is no clear favorite, a lot of the top rated athlete have similar capabilities – which promises an exciting race!

  • Mauro Baertsch: 26% (3-1)
  • Andrej Vistica: 26% (3-1)
  • Gudmund Snilstveit: 15% (6-1)
  • Markus Thomschke: 11% (8-1)
  • Mike Schifferle: 9% (10-1)
  • Harry Wiltshire: 7% (14-1)
  • Nick Baldwin: 4% (22-1)
In addition to these numerical favorites there is Jesse Thomas who races his first Ironman.

Female Race Participants

After having a results in Roth and in the 70.3 Championships, Anja Beranek seems ready to tackle Kona qualifying. She is by far the athlete with the strongest results over the Ironman distance:

  • Anja Beranek: 66% (1-1)
  • Emma Pooley: 9% (10-1)
  • Katja Konschak: 7% (14-1)
  • Tineke Van den Berg: 7% (14-1)
  • Jeanne Collonge: 6% (16-1)

Challenge Almere 2015 (September 12th) – Predictions

AlmereLogo Update (Sep 4th): Mirjam Weerd said on Twitter that she won’t be able to race because an injury has kept her from riding the bike. Also David Naesvik said he will race Challenge Weymouth on the same weekend.

Update (Sep 7th): The latest startlist contains the cancellations from Dejan Patrcevic and  Markus Hoermann. Instead, Michi and Daniel Herlbauer and Louis Rundquist have been added to the field.

You can submit your podium picks for Challenge Almere at IM Predictions for a chance to win some nice prizes.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2013 Bart Colpaert (BEL) 08:34:50 Susan Blatt (GER) 09:24:40
2014 Markus Fachbach (GER) 08:28:25 Heleen Bij De Vaate (NED) 09:16:26

The Almere Triathlon is the oldest long-distance race in Europe – the first edition was in 1983! It has been a Challenge race since 2013.

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Markus Fachbach GER 00:46:56 04:41:45 02:54:28 08:28:25
2 Dirk Wijnalda NED 00:54:54 04:45:59 02:47:54 08:33:09
3 Chris Fischer DEN 00:50:12 04:42:43 02:56:19 08:34:05

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Heleen Bij De Vaate NED 01:01:24 04:59:22 03:10:59 09:16:26
2 Tineke Van den Berg NED 01:01:13 05:01:23 03:17:28 09:26:04
3 Victoria Gill GBR 01:01:12 05:15:29 03:20:41 09:42:53

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:28:25 Markus Fachbach 2014-09-13
Swim overall 00:44:25 Bart Colpaert 2014-09-13
Bike overall 04:41:45 Markus Fachbach 2014-09-13
Run overall 02:47:54 Dirk Wijnalda 2014-09-13
Total female 09:16:26 Heleen Bij De Vaate 2014-09-13
Swim female 00:51:37 Hillary Biscay 2013-09-14
Bike female 04:59:22 Heleen Bij De Vaate 2014-09-13
Run female 03:10:59 Heleen Bij De Vaate 2014-09-13

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Almere is 06:18.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Almere

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2013 05:20 00:19 01:43 03:49 16 05:20 00:19 01:43 03:49
2014 07:16 02:43 04:54 00:36 22 06:18 01:31 03:18 02:12

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Markus Fachbach GER 08:31:13 08:39:05 00:48:07 04:39:08 02:58:58 45
2 39 Mark Oude Bennink NED 08:40:45 08:58:47 00:46:23 04:46:19 03:03:03 119
3 2 Dirk Wijnalda NED 08:43:35 09:05:45 00:56:07 04:49:36 02:52:52 150
4 6 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 08:46:15 08:59:20 00:51:52 04:45:09 03:04:15 (122)
5 5 Gerrit Schellens BEL 08:46:34 08:48:26 00:52:13 04:58:15 02:51:06 85
6 4 Roeland Smits NED 08:46:49 08:56:46 00:51:41 04:48:13 03:01:55 (112)
7 7 David Naesvik SWE 08:50:29 09:04:22 00:52:57 04:42:13 03:10:19 144
8 8 Dejan Patrcevic CRO 08:51:41 08:54:56 00:51:26 04:55:24 02:59:52 108
9 15 Jens Groenbek DEN 08:53:46 09:01:37 00:52:01 04:48:10 03:08:35 (130)
10 11 Thijs Koelen NED 08:54:42 09:10:56 00:51:32 04:49:21 03:08:48 171
11 14 AJ Baucco USA 08:58:13 09:10:18 00:51:10 04:50:19 03:11:44 167
12 9 Remy Vasseur NED 08:58:42 09:12:43 00:52:16 04:55:34 03:05:52 181
13 3 Jens Kaiser GER 08:58:54 09:17:45 00:56:06 04:46:45 03:11:03 (204)
14 10 Thomas Naasz NED 09:12:54 09:25:00 00:54:12 04:59:10 03:14:33 236
15 19 Stefan Eichheimer GER 09:21:02 09:39:04 00:57:05 04:58:48 03:20:08 (292)
16 17 Jacob Veenstra NED 09:28:41 09:49:53 00:53:21 05:04:54 03:25:26 (331)
17 16 Eddy Lamers NED 09:43:40 10:05:25 00:50:36 04:53:10 03:54:53 (385)
18 31 Blaz Brecko SLO 09:53:49 10:12:55 00:00:00 00:00:00 00:00:00 (404)
19 12 Diederik Scheltinga NED 11:08:13 11:43:33 00:50:40 05:21:59 04:50:34 (479)
20 Marijn De Jonge NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
21 Attila Szabo HUN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
22 Dirk Baelus BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
23 Dominic Rohan-Gates GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
25 Juanma Cardenas ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
26 Markus Hoermann GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
27 Olivier Godart LUX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
28 Peter Res NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
29 Tjardo Visser NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
30 Tjerk Tjallema NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
32 Guido Kwakkel NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
33 Henk-Jan Dolsma NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
34 Ben Van Oeveren NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
35 Bob Martens NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
36 Maarten Peters NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
37 Marco Glastra NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
38 Ricardo Scholten NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 51 Mirjam Weerd NED 09:34:39 09:41:33 00:52:56 05:08:38 03:28:05 (50)
2 52 Beate Goertz GER 09:42:55 09:53:31 01:03:06 05:08:50 03:25:59 79
3 55 Brooke Brown CAN 09:53:53 10:07:17 01:02:34 05:21:36 03:24:43 (111)
4 54 Lena Holmgren SWE 09:55:11 10:13:53 01:05:48 05:26:10 03:18:14 (122)
5 53 Kathrin Walther GER 09:56:06 10:26:46 00:57:57 05:17:16 03:35:53 157
6 56 Irene Kinnegim NED 09:58:16 10:13:40 01:07:04 05:22:53 03:23:18 119
7 57 Celia Kuch GER 10:01:45 10:18:14 01:01:37 05:22:16 03:32:53 131
8 60 Kristin Lie NOR 10:02:16 10:13:41 01:10:35 05:16:47 03:29:54 120
9 59 Carla Van Rooijen NED 10:02:36 10:19:51 01:10:13 05:25:17 03:22:07 136
10 65 Lina-Kristin Schink GER 10:06:46 10:16:58 01:08:28 05:25:14 03:28:04 129
11 61 Julia Bohn GER 10:08:00 10:21:27 01:00:11 05:32:13 03:30:36 142
58 Grada Boschker NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
62 Nina Bakker NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
64 Camille Deligny FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
66 Linda Van Bemmel NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

On the male side, last year’s winner Markus Fachbach is back to defend his title. He faces a large contingent of Dutch athletes such asMark Oude-Benning, Dirk Wijnalda (2nd last year), Roeland Smits and Erik-Simon Strijk. Also strong runner Gerrit Schellens from Belgium, David Naesvik from Sweden and US athlete AJ Baucco make picking the podium tricky.

  • Markus Fachbach: 62% (1-1)
  • Mark Oude Bennink: 14% (6-1)
  • Dirk Wijnalda: 9% (10-1)
  • Roeland Smits: 4% (24-1)
  • Erik-Simon Strijk: 4% (25-1)
  • Gerrit Schellens: 3% (30-1)
  • David Naesvik: 3% (36-1)

Female Race Participants

Last year’s female winner, Heleen Bij de Vaate has retired but Mirjam Weerd looks to continue the Dutch streak of winners. (Mirjam has announced she won’t race.) The other main contenders to receive a beer shower are Germans Beate Görtz and Kathrin Walter, Canadian Brooke Brawn, Swede Lena Holmgren, Norwegian Kristin Lie and more Dutch athletes lead by Irene Kinnegim and Carla Van Rooijen.

  • Mirjam Weerd: 42% (1-1)
  • Beate Goertz: 24% (3-1)
  • Kathrin Walther: 11% (8-1)
  • Brooke Brown: 4% (23-1)
  • Irene Kinnegim: 4% (24-1)
  • Carla Van Rooijen: 4% (25-1)
  • Lena Holmgren: 3% (32-1)
  • Kristin Lie: 2% (41-1)
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