Ironman Copenhagen 2018 (Aug 19th) – Seedings
IM Copenhagen is one of the final races before the August cutoff for Kona Pro Qualifying. I have analyzed the situation for August Pro qualifying – who is currently in, who can still make it?
Previous Winners
| Year | Male Winner | Time | Female Winner | Time |
| 2010 | Tim Van Berkel (AUS) | 08:07:39 | Rebekah Keat (AUS) | 08:54:36 |
| 2011 | Tim Van Berkel (AUS) | 08:11:15 | Rebekah Keat (AUS) | 08:52:42 |
| 2012 | Aaron Farlow (AUS) | 08:20:09 | Camilla Pedersen (DEN) | 09:12:27 |
| 2013 | Jens Petersen-Bach (DEN) | 08:12:41 | Eva Wutti (AUT) | 08:37:36 |
| 2014 | Henrik Hyldelund (DEN) | 08:03:39 | Daniela Ryf (SUI) | 08:53:33 |
| 2015 | Guilherme Manocchio (BRA) | 08:14:56 | Michelle Vesterby (DEN) | 08:59:49 |
| 2016 | Patrik Nilsson (SWE) | 07:49:18 | ||
| 2017 | Michelle Vesterby (DEN) | 09:00:19 |
Last TOP 3
Here are the links to the full result analysis from 2017 (WPRO) and from 2016 which was the last men’s Pro race.
Female Race Results
| Rank | Name | Nation | Swim | Bike | Run | Time |
| 1 | Michelle Vesterby | DEN | 00:53:02 | 04:48:02 | 03:15:05 | 09:00:19 |
| 2 | Corinne Abraham | GBR | 01:00:21 | 04:53:20 | 03:09:51 | 09:08:06 |
| 3 | Sofie Goos | BEL | 01:00:15 | 05:00:41 | 03:11:14 | 09:17:17 |
Male Race Results 2016
| Rank | Name | Nation | Swim | Bike | Run | Time |
| 1 | Patrik Nilsson | SWE | 00:47:53 | 04:14:15 | 02:43:14 | 07:49:18 |
| 2 | Will Clarke | GBR | 00:47:46 | 04:24:33 | 02:43:16 | 07:59:31 |
| 3 | Fabio Carvalho | BRA | 00:47:51 | 04:14:50 | 02:59:35 | 08:07:10 |
Course Records
| Leg | Gender | Record | Athlete | Date |
| Total | overall | 07:49:18 | Patrik Nilsson | 2016-08-21 |
| Swim | overall | 00:45:22 | Stephen Bayliss | 2011-08-01 |
| Bike | overall | 04:13:57 | Andreas Raelert | 2016-08-21 |
| Run | overall | 02:38:58 | Mads Vittrup | 2011-08-01 |
| Total | female | 08:37:36 | Eva Wutti | 2013-08-18 |
| Swim | female | 00:48:29 | Ann Lønnberg | 2011-08-01 |
| Bike | female | 04:39:58 | Eva Wutti | 2013-08-18 |
| Run | female | 03:00:51 | Eva Wutti | 2013-08-18 |
Course Rating
The Course Rating for IM Copenhagen is 20:11.
Race Adjustments for IM Copenhagen
| Year | Adjustment | Swim Adj. | Bike Adj. | Run Adj. | # of Finishers | Rating | Swim Rating | Bike Rating | Run Rating |
| 2010 | 32:51 | 01:36 | 09:50 | 10:46 | 24 | 32:51 | 01:36 | 09:50 | 10:46 |
| 2011 | 27:13 | 03:10 | 12:54 | 06:04 | 28 | 30:02 | 02:23 | 11:22 | 08:25 |
| 2012 | 17:57 | 02:36 | 12:46 | 03:30 | 19 | 26:00 | 02:27 | 11:50 | 06:47 |
| 2013 | 27:32 | 01:24 | 17:07 | 05:30 | 30 | 26:23 | 02:12 | 13:09 | 06:28 |
| 2014 | 15:53 | 01:54 | 10:06 | 01:43 | 27 of 35 | 24:17 | 02:08 | 12:32 | 05:31 |
| 2015 | 14:04 | 01:27 | 15:23 | 01:47 | 26 of 30 | 22:35 | 02:01 | 13:01 | 04:53 |
| 2016 | 10:41 | 01:26 | 20:10 | -00:48 | 21 of 28 | 20:53 | 01:56 | 14:02 | 04:05 |
| 2017 | 15:20 | -00:30 | 15:59 | 04:48 | 7 of 8 | 20:11 | 01:38 | 14:17 | 04:10 |
KPR points and Prize Money
IM Copenhagen is an MPRO-only, P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 40.000 US$, paying 10 deep.
Male Race Participants
The strength of the field is 20% of a typical Kona field.
| # | Bib | Name | Nat | Expected | Rating | ESwim | EBike | ET2 | ERun | Consistency | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | Tim Don | GBR | 07:54:16 | 08:18:42 | 00:46:12 | 04:14:21 | 05:05:32 | 02:48:44 | 43% +33% -24% (5) | (11) |
| 2 | 2 | Boris Stein | GER | 08:02:54 | 08:20:56 | 00:51:31 | 04:16:20 | 05:12:51 | 02:50:03 | 80% +20% -0% (9) | 16 |
| 3 | 1 | Clemente Alonso McKernan | ESP | 08:03:45 | 08:25:02 | 00:46:45 | 04:24:47 | 05:16:32 | 02:47:13 | 58% +7% -35% (16) | 24 |
| 4 | 53 | Jesper Svensson | SWE | 08:04:12 | 08:35:40 | 00:45:23 | 04:20:37 | 05:11:00 | 02:53:12 | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (66) |
| 6 | 23 | Marc Duelsen | GER | 08:10:32 | 08:30:54 | 00:49:24 | 04:24:24 | 05:18:47 | 02:51:45 | 93% +0% -7% (13) | 49 |
| 7 | 51 | Stefan Schmid | GER | 08:10:55 | 08:30:33 | 00:50:47 | 04:25:31 | 05:21:18 | 02:49:37 | 62% +17% -21% (17) | 46 |
| 8 | 3 | Cyril Viennot | FRA | 08:10:58 | 08:28:47 | 00:49:25 | 04:26:51 | 05:21:17 | 02:49:41 | 59% +6% -35% (23) | 41 |
| 9 | 7 | Jens Petersen-Bach | DEN | 08:13:31 | 08:35:33 | 00:49:01 | 04:31:38 | 05:25:40 | 02:47:51 | 56% +10% -34% (22) | 64 |
| 10 | 11 | Johann Ackermann | GER | 08:13:58 | 08:43:43 | 00:46:50 | 04:20:33 | 05:12:24 | 03:01:34 | 64% +0% -36% (12) | 86 |
| 11 | 32 | Kristian Hoegenhaug | DEN | 08:14:14 | 08:42:30 | 00:53:21 | 04:19:35 | 05:17:55 | 02:56:19 | 100% +0% -0% (2) | (83) |
| 12 | 5 | Giulio Molinari | ITA | 08:15:08 | 08:32:04 | 00:47:08 | 04:23:25 | 05:15:33 | 02:59:35 | 100% +0% -0% (5) | 57 |
| 13 | 34 | Philipp Koutny | SUI | 08:16:07 | 08:43:14 | 00:49:00 | 04:24:23 | 05:18:22 | 02:57:45 | 47% +14% -40% (11) | 85 |
| 14 | 9 | Thiago Vinhal | BRA | 08:17:36 | 08:38:04 | 00:47:57 | 04:33:22 | 05:26:20 | 02:51:16 | 65% +30% -4% (16) | 76 |
| 15 | 26 | Markus Fachbach | GER | 08:18:15 | 08:46:33 | 00:48:32 | 04:27:17 | 05:20:49 | 02:57:26 | 47% +0% -53% (23) | 92 |
| 17 | 12 | Michael Patrick Alonso Mckernan | ESP | 08:21:09 | 08:54:35 | 00:52:53 | 04:21:15 | 05:19:09 | 03:02:00 | -0% +42% -58% (3) | (130) |
| 18 | 41 | Sebastian Neef | GER | 08:21:26 | 09:01:32 | 00:50:23 | 04:21:50 | 05:17:14 | 03:04:12 | 15% +24% -61% (4) | (156) |
| 19 | 6 | Esben Hovgaard | DEN | 08:21:41 | 08:54:45 | 00:51:09 | 04:29:26 | 05:25:35 | 02:56:06 | 44% +22% -35% (13) | 131 |
| 20 | 27 | Chris Fischer | DEN | 08:22:41 | 08:46:02 | 00:52:54 | 04:30:31 | 05:28:26 | 02:54:15 | 69% +4% -26% (10) | 90 |
| 21 | 13 | Victor Arroyo Bugallo | ESP | 08:23:15 | 08:55:58 | 00:54:35 | 04:34:19 | 05:33:54 | 02:49:21 | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (137) |
| 22 | 8 | Daniil Sapunov | UKR | 08:24:57 | 08:48:36 | 00:47:11 | 04:35:46 | 05:27:57 | 02:57:00 | 76% +5% -18% (12) | 101 |
| 23 | 30 | Pedro Gomes | POR | 08:27:19 | 08:50:32 | 00:50:42 | 04:37:25 | 05:33:06 | 02:54:13 | 50% +0% -50% (33) | 110 |
| 24 | 48 | Michael Ruenz | GER | 08:27:29 | 08:55:59 | 00:54:46 | 04:36:10 | 05:35:56 | 02:51:33 | 61% +0% -39% (14) | 137 |
| 25 | 43 | Andreas Niedrig | GER | 08:30:48 | 09:15:35 | 00:46:30 | 04:23:27 | 05:14:57 | 03:15:51 | 28% +19% -53% (15) | (196) |
| 26 | 35 | Markus Liebelt | GER | 08:34:19 | 09:20:09 | 00:53:24 | 04:28:26 | 05:26:50 | 03:07:29 | 23% +0% -77% (3) | (206) |
| 27 | 44 | Sebastian Norberg | SWE | 08:35:00 | 09:05:46 | 00:54:07 | 04:33:33 | 05:32:40 | 03:02:20 | 35% +39% -26% (3) | (167) |
| 28 | 4 | Nick Baldwin | SEY | 08:35:34 | 09:01:29 | 00:51:51 | 04:34:30 | 05:31:22 | 03:04:12 | 65% +0% -35% (22) | 155 |
| 29 | 38 | Philipp Mock | GER | 08:37:20 | 09:08:30 | 00:56:55 | 04:26:03 | 05:27:58 | 03:09:22 | 100% +0% -0% (2) | (176) |
| 30 | 29 | Jacob Frandsen | DEN | 08:41:31 | 09:06:52 | 00:54:47 | 04:31:11 | 05:30:58 | 03:10:33 | 85% +0% -15% (5) | (168) |
| 31 | 10 | Jonas Oerarbaeck | SWE | 08:44:36 | 09:24:17 | 00:58:40 | 04:41:30 | 05:45:10 | 02:59:26 | 39% +0% -61% (2) | (225) |
| 32 | 50 | Mike Schifferle | SUI | 08:45:11 | 09:19:47 | 00:58:28 | 04:37:30 | 05:40:58 | 03:04:13 | 78% +6% -16% (74) | 202 |
| 33 | 40 | Urs Mueller | SUI | 08:45:17 | 09:14:19 | 00:51:14 | 04:35:53 | 05:32:07 | 03:13:10 | 51% +13% -36% (9) | 192 |
| 34 | 54 | Sanne Swolfs | BEL | 08:46:13 | 09:20:25 | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | 52% +0% -48% (2) | (207) |
| 35 | 16 | Morten Banke | DEN | 08:46:32 | 09:20:46 | 00:57:10 | 04:42:49 | 05:44:59 | 03:01:33 | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (210) |
| 36 | 39 | Vincent Morizot | FRA | 08:52:21 | 09:26:56 | 00:52:00 | 04:33:38 | 05:30:38 | 03:21:43 | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (229) |
| 37 | 45 | Stefan Overmars | NED | 08:56:02 | 09:25:38 | 00:53:12 | 04:36:58 | 05:35:10 | 03:20:52 | 71% +0% -29% (4) | (226) |
| 38 | 36 | Michael Louys | BEL | 08:57:43 | 09:42:37 | 01:00:44 | 04:42:07 | 05:47:51 | 03:09:52 | 33% +5% -62% (14) | (254) |
| 39 | 28 | Rasmus Fitzner | DEN | 08:57:54 | 09:32:52 | 00:53:54 | 04:49:25 | 05:48:18 | 03:09:36 | 40% +0% -60% (3) | (239) |
| 40 | 20 | Bekim Christensen | DEN | 08:58:44 | 09:31:46 | 01:00:02 | 04:37:41 | 05:42:42 | 03:16:02 | 20% +19% -61% (7) | 235 |
| 41 | 56 | Frederik Waer | BEL | 09:00:06 | 09:35:12 | 01:05:54 | 04:47:05 | 05:58:00 | 03:02:06 | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (247) |
| 42 | 25 | Olivier Esser | BEL | 09:03:35 | 09:27:53 | 00:52:45 | 04:48:53 | 05:46:38 | 03:16:57 | 75% +0% -25% (4) | 231 |
| 43 | 19 | Vinicius Canhedo | BRA | 09:03:57 | 09:50:57 | 00:49:43 | 04:45:53 | 05:40:36 | 03:23:21 | 24% +0% -76% (4) | (264) |
| 44 | 15 | Mads Bang Jensen | DEN | 09:04:48 | 09:46:33 | 00:54:07 | 04:49:40 | 05:48:48 | 03:16:00 | 45% +55% -0% (2) | (260) |
| 45 | 37 | Dennis Matzen | DEN | 09:08:33 | 09:44:12 | 00:54:32 | 04:53:16 | 05:52:48 | 03:15:45 | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (258) |
| 46 | 18 | Anthony Cadario | FRA | 09:11:31 | 09:47:21 | 00:54:47 | 04:57:37 | 05:57:24 | 03:14:07 | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (260) |
| 47 | 24 | Patrik Ericsson | SWE | 09:14:40 | 09:50:42 | 00:48:19 | 04:32:09 | 05:25:28 | 03:49:12 | 62% +0% -38% (2) | (263) |
| 48 | 14 | Dirk Baelus | BEL | 09:18:09 | 09:43:04 | 00:55:49 | 04:51:34 | 05:52:24 | 03:25:45 | 71% +0% -29% (5) | 255 |
| 49 | 47 | Lukas Polan | CZE | 09:21:23 | 09:53:51 | 01:00:02 | 04:59:51 | 06:04:53 | 03:16:30 | 50% +13% -36% (17) | 265 |
| 50 | 33 | Aleksander Kochetkov | LTU | 10:30:57 | 11:11:58 | 01:07:00 | 05:26:56 | 06:38:56 | 03:52:01 | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (290) |
| 42 | Marek Nemcik | SVK | 10:55:50 | unrated | 01:10:39 | 05:21:55 | 06:37:34 | 04:18:16 | 35% +20% -45% (47) | n/a | |
| 17 | Mihai Baractaru | ROM | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 31 | Kristian Hindkjaer | DEN | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 49 | Imanol Sagarzazu | ESP | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 52 | Thomas Hansen | DEN | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) |
There are quite a few athletes who have already secured their Kona slots and are unlikely to race (e.g. Philipp Koutny, Marc Duelsen, Thiago Vinhal). Cameron Wurf and Jens Petersen-Bach are also safe but it’s unclear if they want to race another Ironman before Kona.
Winning Odds
Male Race Participants
- Clemente Alonso McKernan: 36% (2-1)
- Tim Don: 33% (2-1)
- Boris Stein: 12% (7-1)
- Cameron Wurf: 5% (21-1)
- Marc Duelsen: 4% (25-1)
- Stefan Schmid: 3% (33-1)
- Jens Petersen-Bach: 3% (38-1)
- Jesper Svensson: 2% (39-1)
The analysis for IM Maastricht is supported by Ruud de Haan and his Dutch website 
IM Sweden is one of the final races before the August cutoff for Kona Pro Qualifying. I have analyzed the