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Ironman UK 2014 (July 20th) – Predictions

Update (July 17th): Pauk Hawkins tweeted that he won’t be starting and is focused on IM Sweden.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Bryan Rhodes (NZL) 08:42:11 Rebecca Preston (AUS) 09:37:56
2006 Frank Heldoorn () 08:36:34 Dede Griesbauer (USA) 09:37:41
2007 Scott Neyedli (GBR) 08:35:57 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:36:13
2008 Stephen Bayliss (GBR) 08:53:59 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:49:07
2009 Philip Graves (GBR) 08:45:52 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:34:00
2010 Fraser Cartmell (GBR) 08:40:18 Yvette Grice (GBR) 10:01:03
2011 Aaron Farlow (AUS) 08:24:34 Kristin Moeller (GER) 09:19:04
2012 Daniel Halksworth (GBR) 08:55:11 Eimear Mullan (IRL) 10:08:44
2013 Daniel Halksworth (GBR) 08:45:48 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 09:29:12

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Daniel Halksworth GBR 00:43:59 04:56:45 03:01:20 08:45:48
2 Stephen Bayliss GBR 00:44:03 04:56:50 03:04:57 08:49:25
3 Joe Skipper GBR 00:49:37 05:00:59 02:57:11 08:51:49

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Lucy Gossage GBR 00:52:30 05:22:13 03:10:22 09:29:12
2 Joanna Carritt GBR 00:55:57 05:40:36 03:24:00 10:05:17
3 Amy Forshaw GBR 00:56:27 05:54:21 03:30:15 10:28:27

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:24:34 Aaron Farlow 2011-07-31
Swim overall 00:43:35 Fraser Cartmell 2010-08-01
Bike overall 04:45:31 Frank Heldoorn 2006-08-16
Run overall 02:41:46 Aaron Farlow 2011-07-31
Total female 09:19:04 Kristin Moeller 2011-07-31
Swim female 00:45:34 Dede Griesbauer 2006-08-16
Bike female 05:19:03 Dede Griesbauer 2006-08-16
Run female 02:41:57 Kristin Moeller 2011-07-31

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM UK is 04:29.

Race Adjustments for IM UK

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 n/a n/a n/a n/a 4 n/a n/a n/a n/a
2006 10:29 04:55 04:38 06:03 18 10:29 04:55 04:38 06:03
2007 11:09 03:07 -04:13 10:14 28 10:49 04:01 00:13 08:08
2008 -01:04 01:12 -14:08 04:11 21 06:51 03:05 -04:34 06:49
2009 02:27 -03:07 -10:16 10:41 16 05:45 01:32 -06:00 07:47
2010 01:15 04:32 -24:08 09:31 12 04:51 02:08 -09:37 08:08
2011 10:58 04:43 -14:36 23:11 15 05:52 02:34 -10:27 10:38
2012 -02:46 00:00 -10:21 02:21 8 04:38 02:12 -10:26 09:27
2013 03:23 04:01 -12:25 03:14 13 04:29 02:25 -10:41 08:41

KPR points and Prize Money

IM UK has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:34:25 08:38:43 00:50:46 04:45:10 02:57:21 40
2 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 08:43:46 08:48:09 00:52:23 04:41:04 03:05:21 65
3 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:45:47 08:50:11 00:47:51 04:50:00 03:05:53 73
4 Swen Sundberg GER 08:46:12 08:50:36 00:52:16 04:45:13 03:08:33 75
5 Axel Zeebroek BEL 08:47:48 08:52:13 00:47:10 04:44:01 03:14:18 85
6 Georg Potrebitsch GER 08:48:06 08:52:31 00:48:50 04:51:16 03:11:41 88
7 Mike Aigroz SUI 08:49:57 08:54:23 00:49:07 04:44:19 03:15:41 99
8 Scott Neyedli GBR 08:51:49 08:56:16 00:50:58 04:53:56 03:02:49 109
9 Joe Skipper GBR 08:53:12 08:57:40 00:53:50 04:47:19 03:04:48 114
10 Harry Wiltshire GBR 09:07:11 09:11:46 00:47:17 04:52:27 03:28:43 179
11 Victor Debil-Caux FRA 09:10:44 09:15:20 00:53:39 04:47:55 03:16:49 (194)
12 Darren Jenkins AUS 09:17:03 09:21:43 01:03:40 05:01:31 03:00:36 (209)
13 James Brown GBR 09:21:32 09:26:14 01:01:33 05:01:24 03:13:39 231
14 Paul Hawkins GBR 09:22:41 09:27:23 00:59:08 05:32:08 03:22:42 (235)
15 Anders Wagner DEN 09:23:22 09:28:05 01:03:00 05:00:03 03:03:23 (240)
16 Craig Twigg GBR 09:33:26 09:38:14 00:53:03 04:55:59 03:39:56 282
17 Steve Clark GBR 09:47:44 09:52:39 00:58:38 05:05:36 03:26:28 (341)
Roman Krutina n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Joerie Vansteelant BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Katja Konschak GER 09:53:17 09:58:15 00:52:16 05:28:59 03:27:10 89
2 Keiko Tanaka JPN 10:03:06 10:08:09 00:55:50 05:28:50 03:32:19 101
3 Joanna Carritt GBR 10:15:23 10:20:32 01:02:44 05:31:12 03:35:53 132
4 Amy Forshaw GBR 10:32:30 10:37:47 01:03:56 05:38:56 03:39:13 147
5 Laura Bostock GBR 11:39:35 11:45:26 01:02:53 06:15:25 03:53:53 (162)
Tamsin Lewis GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Lenka Kralova CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Cyril Viennot: 29% (3-1)
  • Mike Aigroz: 20% (4-1)
  • Axel Zeebroek: 16% (5-1)
  • Georg Potrebitsch: 11% (8-1)
  • Stephen Bayliss: 9% (10-1)
  • Swen Sundberg: 5% (19-1)
  • Kirill Kotshegarov: 4% (22-1)
  • Scott Neyedli: 4% (26-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Katja Konschak: 55% (1-1)
  • Keiko Tanaka: 22% (4-1)
  • Joanna Carritt: 18% (5-1)
  • Amy Forshaw: 4% (26-1)

KPR Situation

Men

There is a number of athletes that are able to make it to Kona with a good result in the UK:

  • Axel Zeebroek – 2.790
  • Cyril Viennot – 2.240
  • Harry Wiltshire – 2.080
  • Scott Neyedli – 2.000
  • Stephen Bayliss – 1.690
Remember that the men need about 3.500 points to qualify.

Women

My projected Kona cutoff for the women is 4.900 points, so only Katja Konschak (3.390) in a position to move into a position to qualify.

Challenge Atlantic City – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

With an adjustment of 16:29, the first edition of Atlantic City was a pretty fast, on a level similar to Melbourne or Brasil.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:53:25 04:43:31 02:51:09 08:31:47 -01:19
2 Scott Defilippis USA 00:57:20 04:42:32 02:53:46 08:37:56 -14:47
3 Chris Boudreaux USA 00:54:01 04:34:10 03:07:59 08:40:56 -23:45
4 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:47:24 04:48:04 03:05:53 08:45:09 15:32
5 Thomas Gerlach USA 00:53:10 04:38:18 03:16:00 08:51:28 02:00
6 Chad Holderbaum USA 00:57:14 04:46:33 03:12:40 09:00:13 07:25
7 Petr Vabrousek CZE 01:04:57 04:49:27 03:01:37 09:01:08 19:33
8 Dan Mcintosh USA 00:53:57 04:51:06 03:14:56 09:03:58 06:36
9 Nathan Killam CAN 00:57:09 04:46:12 03:21:52 09:09:26 -10:33
10 Jim Lamastra USA 00:53:58 04:42:45 03:39:22 09:19:59 -07:25
11 John Hirsch USA 00:57:21 05:02:56 03:19:01 09:22:56 -05:35
12 Jeff Paul USA 01:11:05 04:52:20 03:08:10 09:26:29 -15:31
13 Aubrey Aldy USA 01:11:08 05:06:18 03:05:15 09:26:50 -27:46
14 Jeremy Howard USA 00:55:31 05:09:10 03:30:02 09:38:16 n/a
15 Jack Braconnier USA 01:11:19 05:09:56 03:18:09 09:44:43 n/a
16 Arland Macasieb PHI 01:11:04 05:50:28 03:58:34 11:13:43 1:14:41
  Chris McCormack AUS 00:53:14 04:43:31   DNF  
  Ryan Bates USA 00:57:20 04:44:03   DNF  
  Kyle Pawlaczyk USA 00:58:12 04:50:07   DNF  
  Ryan Cain CAN 00:57:19 04:56:11   DNF  
  James Lubinski USA 01:10:47 05:36:14   DNF  
  Simon Malo CAN 01:07:39 05:42:48   DNF  
  Tom Wood USA 00:57:18     DNF  

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Laurel Wassner USA 00:58:37 05:16:42 03:09:09 09:29:20 -23:39
2 Jacqui Gordon USA 01:05:34 05:10:59 03:33:29 09:54:10 -02:39
3 Natasha Van der Merwe USA 01:08:32 05:12:52 03:32:43 09:58:13 -20:48
4 Alyssa Godesky USA 01:08:02 05:20:34 03:36:12 10:09:25 -17:07
5 Meghan Newcomer USA 01:05:31 05:29:40 03:53:27 10:33:00 24:07

Co-Hosting Multisport News on EndurancePlanet

Yesterday, I spent an hour geeking out with EndurancePlanet host Tawnee Prazak about Ironman Germany, the KPR and lots of other issues in Professional Ironman racing. We both had a great time – and if you like Trirating.com, I’m sure you’ll like to listen to the “Multisport News” that Tawnee released on EndurancePlanet.

EndurancePlanet

If you enjoy listening to podcasts, please consider donating to EndurancePlanet’s Week of Kona to help Tawnee get to Kona so that she can bring you interviews with pros and age-groupers, insider videos, Q&A’s with triathlon celebrities and much more!

Ironman Canada 2014 – Preliminary Start List

This start list is based on the full start list posted on the IM Canada website and – because there was no Pro category information – some name matching. (Translation: There may be additional Pro athletes, and some of the athletes on my list may have already indicated they won’t be starting.)

I have added the current KPR points of the identified athletes in order to determine the influence that the race will have on the KPR ranking. (Canada is on of the three final races before determining the July qualifiers.)

Male Race Participants

Trevor Wurtele is back to defend his title, but he faces strong competition in Marino Vanhoenacker (looking for about 600 remaining KPR points to qualify – a fifth should be enough for him) and Matthew Russell (who should already have enough KPR points).

Bib Name Nation KPR points KPR races
  Tom Evans CAN    
  Stephen Kilshaw CAN 187 1+2
  Matt Lieto USA 35 0+1
  Maurice Maher CAN    
  Devon Palmer USA    
  Matthew Russell USA 3615 5+0 ( 230)
  Josh Seifarth CAN 1 1+0
  Nobuyuki Tanaka JPN    
  Anthony Toth CAN 8 1+1
  Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 2920 1+3 (110)
  Trevor Wurtele CAN 1965 1+3 (400)

Female Race Participants

After her exhausting race in Frankfurt (and enough KPR points) I would be surprised if Mary Beth Ellis raced in Canada. For Bree Wee qualifying is still possible, but she probably needs a win to qualify in July.

Bib Name Nation KPR points KPR races
  Anna Cleaver NZL 205 0+3 (45)
  Mary Beth Ellis USA 6210 2+3 (320)
  Christine Fletcher CAN 60 2+0
  Jennifer Lentzke CAN 145 1+3 (10)
  Jenni Plane USA 90 1+1
  Anna Russell NZL    
  Charlene Waldner CAN    
  Bree Wee USA 3250 3+2 (210)

Ironman Germany 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

We’ve seen about the same conditions in Frankfurt as last year (adjustments of 17:55 vs. 18:27 in 2013, leading to a new course rating of 13:30) – confirming Frankfurt as one of the faster courses on the IM calendar. However, this year was especially quick on the bike (adjustment of 13:19 with a new bike rating of 8:27), and the hot conditions slowed things down on the run (adjustment o 1:33 and a new run rating of 2:10).

Male Race Results

By winning his first Ironman race, Sebastian Kienle had a great 30th birthday.

Frankfurt_Sebi

He took control of the race with a fantastic new bike course record of 4:12 (eight minutes faster than the old record by Andreas Raelert), then also finished with his first marathon under 2:50. Frederik van Lierde ran a bit faster than Sebi, but didn’t have a chance after the bike – even if his 4:21 was the second fastest bike split. In his IM debut, Jan Frodeno had some bad luck: First he tore his wetsuit before the swim (luckily he found a replacement in time) and then had three flats and had to wait for tech support to change his rear wheel. He was cramping even before starting the run in the changing tent, then had to stop and stretch and walked most of the aid stations in the second half of the run. I have no idea how he managed to have the fastest run split of the day with a 2:43!

Ronnie Schildknecht also had a good day finishing fourth, probably not quite good enough for a July Kona slot. There were a few notable DNFs: Bas Diederen injured his foot during the swim exit, rode well but couldn’t run at all. Also, Andreas Raelert stopped after 25k on the run while running in forth position. Kona is probably not in the cards this year for these two.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Sebastian Kienle GER 00:49:40 04:12:13 02:49:35 07:55:14 -12:19
2 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 00:45:44 04:21:33 02:49:14 08:00:25 -07:20
3 Jan Frodeno GER 00:45:39 04:33:34 02:43:14 08:07:05 n/a
4 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:49:54 04:29:56 02:49:10 08:12:54 -14:02
5 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 00:49:30 04:29:51 02:56:59 08:20:39 n/a
6 David Plese SLO 00:49:33 04:29:56 02:57:01 08:21:04 -04:08
7 Marc Duelsen GER 00:49:40 04:33:36 03:01:21 08:28:30 -02:07
8 Miquel Blanchart ESP 00:49:08 04:46:47 02:52:33 08:32:49 08:35
9 Jan Raphael GER 00:49:25 04:36:11 03:08:02 08:38:08 15:19
10 Ivan Alvarez Gomez ESP 00:54:22 04:48:04 02:51:17 08:38:40 -19:01
11 Mark Oude Bennink NED 00:47:23 04:37:42 03:15:44 08:46:17 n/a
12 Hannes Cool BEL 00:49:38 04:40:57 03:09:43 08:46:41 -13:32
13 Ivan Jezko SVK 00:56:36 04:46:57 03:06:33 08:56:46 -21:10
14 Damien With FRA 00:50:45 04:45:38 03:21:44 09:03:23 n/a
15 Brendan Naef CAN 00:54:35 04:48:48 03:18:50 09:07:36 -25:33
16 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 00:59:43 05:07:55 02:55:06 09:07:54 -43:10
17 Yeun Sik Ham KOR 01:05:21 04:51:37 03:06:35 09:09:03 -24:55
18 Michael Louys BEL 00:59:51 04:47:00 03:26:45 09:18:05 n/a
19 Alfred Rahm GER 01:02:47 04:53:47 03:18:01 09:20:00 -06:56
20 Lukas Polan CZE 01:00:57 04:51:53 03:23:47 09:21:48 01:51
21 Kurt Debouck BEL 00:55:21 04:57:02 04:33:32 10:32:27 19:20
22 Marek Nemcik SVK 01:08:49 05:36:29 05:28:16 12:21:46 48:40
Bas Diederen NED 00:45:49 04:30:27 DNF
Evert Scheltinga NED 00:47:24 04:32:19 DNF
Andreas Raelert GER 00:45:51 04:33:56 DNF
Martijn Dekker NED 00:45:46 04:39:44 DNF
Jens Kaiser GER 00:53:42 04:44:42 DNF
Carlos Lopez Diaz ESP 00:45:42 04:56:17 DNF
Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 00:53:47 04:55:43 DNF
Clemente Alonso-McKernan ESP 00:45:41 DNF
Denis Chevrot FRA 00:47:17 DNF
Johann Ackermann GER 00:47:34 DNF

Female Race Results

While none of the women broke three hours on the run, the race changed a lot on the run. After the bike Jodie Swallow, Camilla Pedersen and Mary Beth Ellis were at the front, but fell back on the run or even DNF’d (Camilla with hip issues). There was a lot of talk after the race that a lot of the Pro women were caught in groups of strong AG men. (Gina Crawford described her frustration in her Frankfurt race report.) While there is personal responsibility by each athlete, this situation could have been avoided by not starting the Pro women together with the fastest age groupers. After Brasil and Frankfurt it seems obvious that there should be separate starts for Pro men, Pro women and age groupers, with as large a gap as possible between these three groups.

FrankfurtPodium

Jodie held the lead until about the half way on the run, then faded to 7th place. Corinne Abraham had the strongest bike/run combo and took her second Regional Championship after Melbourne 2013 and a long, frustrating injury. Elizabeth Lyles finished second, running down Gina Crawford who finished third.

Kristin Möller had the best run split, but as for Ronnie on the men’s side, the points for fourth place are probably not enough for her to qualify. Amy Marsh in 5th and Natascha Badmann in 6th (posting a 4:44 and new bike course record!) raced well, but started with probably too few points to get a July slot for Kona. Jodie in 7th and Mary Beth in 8th already had a lot of Kona points and should now be safe for a Kona slot. Eva Wutti was also fighting for a good place, she was near the front of the race and apparently collapsed exhausted just a kilometer before the finish.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Corinne Abraham GBR 00:54:23 04:49:06 03:04:38 08:52:40 -23:08
2 Elizabeth Lyles USA 00:53:40 04:56:53 03:01:14 08:56:36 -18:09
3 Gina Crawford NZL 00:49:21 04:56:01 03:07:37 08:58:06 -09:00
4 Kristin Moeller GER 01:00:37 04:56:01 03:00:38 09:02:17 -16:37
5 Amy Marsh USA 00:49:43 04:55:11 03:15:56 09:06:33 -07:50
6 Natascha Badmann SUI 00:59:25 04:44:25 03:19:14 09:08:13 -06:25
7 Jodie Swallow GBR 00:47:22 04:54:38 03:22:27 09:08:44 07:29
8 Mary Beth Ellis USA 00:47:27 04:55:31 03:22:43 09:10:08 11:44
9 Katja Konschak GER 00:49:28 05:13:56 03:12:33 09:20:48 -21:49
10 Natascha Schmitt GER 00:51:51 05:15:25 03:09:39 09:21:56 -02:56
11 Verena Walter GER 00:56:39 04:59:15 03:26:57 09:27:59 n/a
12 Astrid Ganzow GER 00:55:47 04:55:44 03:32:53 09:29:04 -12:05
13 Katharina Grohmann GER 01:10:14 05:06:26 03:28:43 09:50:31 -03:09
14 Line Margareta Foss NOR 01:20:30 04:57:16 03:38:21 10:02:52 -06:11
15 Nicole Woysch GER 00:55:26 05:07:25 04:11:17 10:19:14 18:20
16 Yasuko Miyazaki JPN 00:59:41 05:42:42 03:37:34 10:25:13 06:08
17 Sonja Tajsich GER 00:56:45 04:48:20 04:46:11 10:36:12 1:29:42
Camilla Pedersen DEN 00:51:26 04:52:14 DNF
Eva Wutti AUT 00:52:52 04:50:57 DNF
Mareen Hufe GER 00:55:54 04:59:58 DNF
Jenny Schulz GER 01:03:02 05:09:53 DNF
Lucie Reed CZE 00:49:23 DNF
Stefanie Adam BEL 00:55:27 DNF
Helena Herrero Gomez ESP 01:00:53 DNF

Photo Credits: Michael Rauschendorfer (via tri-mag Twitter stream) and Siri Lindley (via Twitter)

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