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Kona Strength: Who is racing well in Kona?

My ratings are a course-independent number, so they don’t give a complete picture of how an athlete is going to do in Kona. By comparing the relative performances in Kona and on other courses, I can determine athletes who are racing well in Kona and those that struggle on Hawaii. I’m expressing this number – the “Kona Strength” – as the time difference between the expected result (based on the athlete’s rating before the race) and the actual result (finishing time adjusted for the course and conditions on race day). For example, Caroline Steffen has a Kona Strength of 24:29 – this means that here results in Kona have been more than 24 minutes faster than her rating predicted. A Kona Strength of 0 shows that an athlete is not racing faster or slower in Kona than their rating predicts, and a negative number (e.g. -31:18 by Meredith Kessler) shows that the athlete has struggled in Kona. I’ve added a number to show how many Kona results the Kona Strength is based on – one race may always be a fluke (so maybe the one result by Meredith Kessler was not caused by the Kona heat and she’s going to do much better this year).

Good Kona Results

Here is a list of athletes that have races well in Kona:

  • Caroline Steffen 24:29 (2)
  • Pete Jacobs 22:34 (4)
  • Mirinda Carfrae 21:26 (3)
  • Caitlin Snow 18:07 (4)
  • Rachel Joyce 14:15 (3)
  • Ronnie Schildknecht 10:09 (4)
  • Craig Alexander 09:05 (5)

Inferior Kona Results

The following athletes have struggled in their Kona races:

  • Meredith Kessler -31:18 (1)
  • Jan Raphael -25:35 (3)
  • Rebekah Keat -16:50 (2)
  • Linsey Corbin -12:09 (5)
  • Marino Vanhoenacker -09:34 (4)
Jan Raphael has declined his Kona slot (he qualified late in the year in Sweden), he wants to get his bad Kona results out of his mind before trying again. 

New to Kona

There are also a few athletes that haven’t yet raced in Kona. Usually, these athletes should race a bit conservatively and build some experience in the Kona conditions:

  • Jordan Rapp
  • Trevor Wurtele
  • David Dellow
  • Sebastian Kienle
  • Michael Raelert
  • Greg Bennett
  • Michelle Gailey
  • Michelle Vesterby
This post is an excerpt from my Kona Rating Report. You can receive your copy by using this link to subscribe to my email list.

Kona Odds for Winning and TOP3

The following is a slightly updated excerpt from my Kona Rating Report. (You can receive your copy by using this link to subscribe to my email list.)

Male Winners

The clear favorite is Craig Alexander. He’s had a strong qualifying race in Melbourne (going sub-8 for the first time) and also raced well during the year and at the Las Vegas 70.3 championships. 

The other contenders all have some issues against them: Marino had a DNF in Kona last year (but won in Frankfurt), Andreas had sub-standard race in Frankfurt, Macca focused on the Olympics and merely validated his spot by “jogging it in” in Cairns. I’ve put Pete Jacobs in the “Long Shots” – he’s had an injury and wasn’t in his best shape when he qualified in Lake Placid. Of course, he (and the other long shots as well) has the potential to win in Kona if he puts together his dream race and some other, higher ranked athletes run into problems.

Favorite

  • Craig Alexander 34% (2-1)

In the Mix

  • Marino Vanhoenacker 14% (6-1)
  • Andreas Raelert 11% (8-1)
  • Chris McCormack 10% (9-1)

Long Shots

  • Pete Jacobs 7% (11-1)
  • Eneko Llanos 7% (11-1)
  • Cameron Brown 5% (19-1)

Female Winners

On the women’s side, the situation is not quite as clear as the men’s side. Rinnie’s year has not been going quite as well (both compared to her last years and to Crowie’s), and Caroline Steffen has had a stellar 2012 – that’s why I consider both of these athletes as the favorites. If I had to pick one of them, I’d probably go with Caroline, as she seems to have the momentum. But as she says herself, odds don’t mean anything on race day.

Favorites

  • Mirinda Carfrae 31% (2-1)
  • Caroline Steffen 20% (4-1)

In the Mix

  • Rachel Joyce 17% (5-1)
  • Mary Beth Ellis 12% (7-1)

Long Shots

  • Leanda Cave 10% (9-1)
  • Sonja Tajsich 3% (32-1)

Male TOP 3

There are a few new faces in Kona (such as Jordan Rapp, David Dellow, Paul Matthews and Sebastian Kienle) that have some chances for a podium finish. Some of the older and established athletes (Macca, Eneko, Cam Brown, Timo Bracht, maybe even Faris) may not have a strong winning chance, but look pretty good for finishing on the podium.

Safe Bets

  • Craig Alexander 46%
  • Marino Vanhoenacker 44%
  • Andreas Raelert 41%

Knocking on the door

  • Chris McCormack 25%
  • Eneko Llanos 22%
  • Pete Jacobs 21%
  • Jordan Rapp 18%
  • Dirk Bockel 16%
  • David Dellow 14%

Outside Chances

  • Paul Amey 10%
  • Frederik Van Lierde 9%
  • Cameron Brown 9%
  • Timo Bracht 8% 
  • Rasmus Henning 4%
  • Paul Matthews 4%
  • Faris Al-Sultan 3%
  • Sebastian Kienle 3%

Female TOP 3

On the female side, we have five strong contenders for the podium. After that there are a few good athletes with outside chances but already a clear distance to the first five.

Safe Bets

  • Caroline Steffen 47%
  • Mirinda Carfrae 46%
  • Rachel Joyce 39%

Knocking on the door

  • Mary Beth Ellis 37%
  • Leanda Cave 33%

Outside Chances

  • Sonja Tajsich 16%
  • Anja Beranek 13%
  • Linsey Corbin 11%
  • Rebekah Keat 11%
  • Amy Marsh 9%
  • Caitlin Snow 8%
  • Jessica Jacobs 6%
  • Erika Csomor 5% 

Pro Men: the five that can win Kona 2012

It is always good to know that I’m not the only one spending time analyzing Ironman results. My analysis is focused on finishing times – John Levison from TRI247.COM has used an analysis of Kona positions to come up with a potential winners for the men’s race in Kona 2012. He’s got the same five names that are at the top of my predictions: Crowie, Macca, Andreas, Marino, and Pete.

Check out his interesting discussion of these and some other athletes at Pro Men: how to win in Kona…and the five men that can WIN in 2012.

Update: John has done a similar analysis for the women’s field and identified four women that can WIN in 2012.

 

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