Analysis

Here is my quick calculation of the KPR at the end of August, deciding 10 slots for the male and 7 slots for the female. These slots are in addition to the July slots (for those, please check my post on the July ranking) and before any rolldowns.

My results are unofficial, the official results will be posted on the Ironman website at http://eu.ironman.com/triathlon/triathlon-rankings/points-system.aspx. I do not count the July slots in my rankings, therefore it is a bit easier to determine the August Top 10 male and Top 7 females. I will update this post with new information regarding declined slots and rolldown. For now, the athletes with a rank in brackets (e.g. “(11)”) are outside of the August slots.

Male KPR Ranking

Other than changes in the order of slots, the last weekend has not seen any changes in the Top 10 rankings for August slots.

Rank	Name	Points	Races
1	Manocchio, Guilherme	5540	3+2 (855/145)
2	Raelert, Andreas	4505	2+3 (235/240)
3	Stein, Boris	4465	2+3 (450/115)
4	Chevrot, Denis	4290	2+3 (720/320)
5	Rapp, Jordan	4180	2+3 (1280/180)
6	Ambrose, Paul	4155	3+2 (340/255)
7	Cartmell, Fraser	3785	2+3 (1600/85)
8	Chrabot, Matt	3630	1+3 (1600/640)
9	Jurkiewicz, Jeremy	3475	3+2 (705/125)
10	Daerr, Justin	3440	3+2 (340/85)
(11*)	Casadei, Alberto	3440	2+3 (960/400)
(12)	Wurtele, Trevor	3395	2+3 (960/320)
(13)	Aigroz, Mike	3350	3+2 (540/180)

*) Alberto has the same points as Justin, but Justin has the better tie-breaker (his best score is a win in Mont Tremblant, Alberto’s best is a third in IM Maastricht).

Female KPR Ranking

A slot rolled down to Laurel Wassner, Sonja Tajsich was forced to decline.

Rank	Name	Points	Races
1	Vesterby, Michelle	6350	3+2 (1600/345)
DECL	Tajsich, Sonja	5360	3+2 (685/345)
2	Stienen, Astrid	4840	3+2 (1070/170)
3	Li, Shiao-Yu	4600	3+2 (960/180)
4	Piampiano, Sarah	4410	2+3 (1280/320)
5	Snow, Cait	4375	3+2 (340/540)
6	Goos, Sofie	4220	3+2 (340/320)
DECL	Clifford, Ashley	4130	3+1 (1070/500)
7	Wassner, Laurel	4060	2+3 (230/345)
(8)	Wee, Bree	3790	3+2 (685/85)

 

I’ve updated my page on the Top 10 Ratings in long distance triathlon.

TOP Rated Athletes

TOP 10 Rated Male Athletes

After his stellar are at IM Germany, Jan Frodeno has taken over the top spot in front of Sebastian Kienle. With Nils Frommhold there are now three Germans at the front of my ratings:

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Last Race	# Races
1	Jan Frodeno	GER	08:08:18	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	3
2	Sebastian Kienle	GER	08:08:50	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	10
3	Nils Frommhold	GER	08:15:11	Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12	6
4	Frederik Van Lierde	BEL	08:15:48	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	16
5	Marino Vanhoenacker	BEL	08:19:10	IM Austria on 2015-06-28	19
6	Andreas Raelert	GER	08:20:03	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	14
7	Timo Bracht	GER	08:22:35	Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12	24
8	Craig Alexander	AUS	08:23:13	IM Hawaii on 2014-10-11	12
9	Eneko Llanos	ESP	08:23:47	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	22
10	Bas Diederen	NED	08:24:09	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	8

TOP 10 Rated Female Athletes

Mirinda Carfrae continues to lead the female ratings, but Daniela Ryf is slowly getting closer.

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Last Race	# Races
1	Mirinda Carfrae	AUS	08:57:08	IM Melbourne on 2015-03-22	12
2	Daniela Ryf	SUI	09:03:14	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	4
3	Rachel Joyce	GBR	09:07:58	IM Texas on 2015-05-16	16
4	Caroline Steffen	SUI	09:11:03	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	20
5	Yvonne Van Vlerken	NED	09:13:06	Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12	17
6	Jodie Swallow	GBR	09:14:13	IM South Africa on 2015-03-29	7
7	Julia Gajer	GER	09:15:15	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	9
8	Eva Wutti	AUT	09:16:23	IM Austria on 2015-06-28	5
9	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	09:17:15	IM Switzerland on 2015-07-19	14
10	Liz Blatchford	AUS	09:17:16	IM Cairns on 2015-06-14	7

TOP Swim-Rated Athletes

TOP 10 Swim-Rated Male Athletes

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Last Race	# Races
1	Dylan McNeice	NZL	00:45:11	IM Cairns on 2015-06-14	11
2	Andy Potts	USA	00:46:00	IM Coeur d’Alene on 2015-06-28	12
3	Jan Frodeno	GER	00:46:22	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	3
4	Manuel Kueng	SUI	00:46:36	IM Switzerland on 2015-07-19	3
5	Marko Albert	EST	00:46:49	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	12
6	Filip Ospaly	CZE	00:47:02	IM Hawaii on 2014-10-11	3
7	Paul Matthews	AUS	00:47:04	IM Coeur d’Alene on 2015-06-28	6
8	Timothy O’Donnell	USA	00:47:10	IM Brasil on 2015-05-31	10
9	Denis Chevrot	FRA	00:47:13	IM UK on 2015-07-19	5
10	Clemente Alonso McKernan	ESP	00:47:18	IM Cozumel on 2014-11-30	11

TOP 10 Swim-Rated Female Athletes

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Last Race	# Races
1	Celine Schaerer	SUI	00:48:23	IM Cozumel on 2014-11-30	3
2	Jodie Swallow	GBR	00:48:35	IM South Africa on 2015-03-29	7
3	Haley Chura	USA	00:49:03	IM Brasil on 2015-05-31	8
4	Amanda Stevens	USA	00:49:49	IM Coeur d’Alene on 2015-06-28	13
5	Meredith Kessler	USA	00:50:07	IM New Zealand on 2015-03-07	19
6	Leanda Cave	GBR	00:50:40	IM Texas on 2015-05-16	16
7	Lucie Reed	CZE	00:50:45	IM Brasil on 2015-05-31	18
8	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	00:50:54	IM Switzerland on 2015-07-19	14
9	Liz Blatchford	AUS	00:50:55	IM Cairns on 2015-06-14	7
10	Camilla Pedersen	DEN	00:51:00	IM South Africa on 2015-03-29	4

TOP Bike-Rated Athletes

TOP 10 Bike-Rated Male Athletes

With his fast bike ride at Challenge Roth, Andrew Starykowicz has reclaimed his top spot in the bike ratings:

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Last Race	# Races
1	Andrew Starykowicz	USA	04:23:43	Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12	5
2	Sebastian Kienle	GER	04:26:08	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	10
3	Marino Vanhoenacker	BEL	04:28:16	IM Austria on 2015-06-28	19
4	Nils Frommhold	GER	04:28:39	Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12	6
5	Michael Weiss	AUT	04:29:29	IM Austria on 2015-06-28	11
6	Jan Frodeno	GER	04:31:34	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	3
7	Frederik Van Lierde	BEL	04:31:54	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	16
8	Maik Twelsiek	GER	04:32:39	IM Coeur d’Alene on 2015-06-28	26
9	Andi Boecherer	GER	04:33:13	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	11
10	Eneko Llanos	ESP	04:34:34	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	22

TOP 10 Bike-Rated Female Athletes

Angela Naeth is slowly inching towards a 5 hour rating, but she is clearly second after Daniela Ryf continues to improve her bike rating:

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Last Race	# Races
1	Daniela Ryf	SUI	04:56:48	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	4
2	Angela Naeth	CAN	05:00:30	IM Texas on 2015-05-16	4
3	Yvonne Van Vlerken	NED	05:01:06	Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12	17
4	Lisa Huetthaler	AUT	05:01:20	IM Austria on 2015-06-28	4
5	Caroline Steffen	SUI	05:01:23	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	20
6	Eva Wutti	AUT	05:01:30	IM Austria on 2015-06-28	5
7	Anja Beranek	GER	05:03:05	Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12	5
8	Natascha Badmann	SUI	05:03:42	IM Hawaii on 2014-10-11	12
9	Diana Riesler	GER	05:03:52	IM Lanzarote on 2015-05-23	14
10	Jodie Swallow	GBR	05:04:21	IM South Africa on 2015-03-29	7

TOP Run-Rated Athletes

TOP 10 Run-Rated Male Athletes

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Last Race	# Races
1	Jan Frodeno	GER	02:47:19	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	3
2	Mads Vittrup	DEN	02:47:55	IM Copenhagen on 2014-08-24	5
3	Matt Hanson	USA	02:48:45	IM Texas on 2015-05-16	6
4	Alessandro Degasperi	ITA	02:49:30	IM Switzerland on 2015-07-19	3
5	Bart Aernouts	BEL	02:49:59	IM South Africa on 2015-03-29	7
6	Ivan Rana	ESP	02:50:30	IM Austria on 2015-06-28	8
7	Jeff Symonds	CAN	02:51:06	IM Canada on 2015-07-26	5
8	Gerrit Schellens	BEL	02:51:24	Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12	10
9	Clemente Alonso McKernan	ESP	02:52:08	IM Cozumel on 2014-11-30	11
10	Miquel Blanchart Tinto	ESP	02:52:25	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	10

TOP 10 Run-Rated Female Athletes

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Last Race	# Races
1	Mirinda Carfrae	AUS	02:58:47	IM Melbourne on 2015-03-22	12
2	Kelly Williamson	USA	03:04:20	IM Texas on 2015-05-16	11
3	Kristin Moeller	GER	03:04:42	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	15
4	Caitlin Snow	USA	03:06:06	IM Canada on 2015-07-26	20
5	Julia Gajer	GER	03:07:05	IM Germany on 2015-07-05	9
6	Beth Gerdes	USA	03:07:16	IM Switzerland on 2015-07-19	10
7	Linsey Corbin	USA	03:07:40	IM Hawaii on 2014-10-11	18
8	Eva Wutti	AUT	03:08:17	IM Austria on 2015-06-28	5
9	Lucy Gossage	GBR	03:08:17	IM UK on 2015-07-19	9
10	Elizabeth Lyles	USA	03:08:39	IM Canada on 2015-07-26	9

Here is my calculation of the KPR at the end of July, deciding 40 male and 28 female slots (in addition to the Automatic Qualifiers). My results are unofficial, the official results have been posted on the Ironman website at http://eu.ironman.com/triathlon/triathlon-rankings/points-system.aspx (but as far as I can tell show the same data). I do not count AQs in my rankings, therefore it is a bit easier to determine the Top 40 male and Top 28 females.
I will update this post with new information regarding declined slots and rolldown. For now, the athletes with a rank in brackets (e.g. “(42)”) are outside of the July slots.

Update July 28th: Yvonne Van Vlerken declines (with a post on her German language Facebook page), Dimity-Lee Duke is now in. Here’s a quick translation of Yvonne’s statement:

The race in Hawaii deserves 100% focus and absolute priority if you want to finish at the front. .. I only want to start when I have a chance for a Top 5. That I belong there I have shown with my 2nd place  at IM Melbourne in a world class field and confirmed that with my win at Challenge Roth. If I can add a win at Ironman Maastricht next weekend, I’ll be very happy and have fulfilled my main goals for this year.
Things are going to be different for 2016: For the first time I will completely focus on Kona.

Update 2 July 28th: Patrik Nilsson also declines to focus on racing well at IM Sweden, his slot rolls down to Luke Bell.

Update 3 August 15th: Lisa Hütthaler announced on her blog that she is injured and won’t be able to start 70.3 World Champs or in Kona. Her slot has rolled down to Dede Griesbauer.

Male KPR Ranking

All July slots have been accepted, the only exception is Patrik Nilsson who declined for Luke Bell.

Rank	Name	Validated	Points	Races
AQ	Frodeno, Jan	V	14680	2+3 (4000/750)
AQ	Kienle, Sebastian	V	12415	2+2
AQ	Van Lierde, Frederik	V	10455	3+1 (2090/0)
1	Hoffman, Ben	V	9970	2+3 (1070/415)
2	Potts, Andy	V	9475	2+3 (2000/500)
3	Frommhold, Nils	V	9185	2+2
4	Aernouts, Bart	V	8310	2+2
5	Sanders, Lionel	V	8140	2+3 (2000/750)
6	Van Berkel, Tim	V	8060	2+3 (3400/45)
7	Schildknecht, Ronnie	V	7550	3+2 (2000/180)
8	Don, Tim	V	7430	1+3 (2000/1500)
9	McMahon, Brent	V	7270	2+3 (2000/500)
10	Trautman, Matt	V	7195	3+2 (1670/320)
11	Viennot, Cyril	V	6995	2+2
AQ	Hanson, Matt	V	6990	3+2 (720/50)
AQ	Vanhoenacker, Marino	V	6735	3+1 (235/0)
12	Guillaume, Romain	V	6200	3+2 (960/320)
13	Brown, Cameron	V	6145	3+2 (960/500)
14	O’Donnell, Timothy	V	6065	3+2 (235/435)
15	Rana, Ivan	V	5840	3+1 (880/0)
16	Skipper, Joe	V	5295	3+1 (540/0)
17	Diederen, Bas	V	5245	3+1 (720/0)
18	Weiss, Michael	V	5025	3+2 (1100/85)
19	Llanos, Eneko	V	4980	3+1 (1070/0)
20	Butterfield, Tyler	V	4965	2+3 (1335/110)
21	Alonso McKernan, Clemente	V	4880	3+0 (1280/0)
22	Millward, Callum	V	4825	2+3 (1600/180)
—	Reed, Tim	NV	4710	1+3 (340/1275)
23	Mcnamee, David	V	4695	2+3 (1335/280)
AQ	Symonds, Jeff	V	4675	1+2
24	Boecherer, Andi	V	4530	1+3 (2890/500)
25	McKenzie, Luke	V	4450	2+3 (1375/240)
26	Kahlefeldt, Brad	V	4400	1+3 (2890/435)
27	Amorelli, Igor	V	4340	2+3 (340/125)
28	McNeice, Dylan	V	4305	3+1 (960/0)
DECL	Nilsson, Patrik	V	4240	2+1
—	Alexander, Craig	NV	4210	1+3 (1900/640)
29	Gomes, Pedro	V	4090	3+0 (720/0)
30	Kramer, Christian	V	4055	2+0
31	Zyemtsev, Viktor	V	3980	2+3 (540/400)
32	Croneborg, Fredrik	V	3975	2+3 (1600/135)
33	Buckingham, Kyle	V	3925	3+2 (515/195)
34	Van Berkel, Jan	V	3895	2+3 (1335/320)
35	Twelsiek, Maik	V	3875	3+2 (85/80)
36	Del Corral, Victor	V	3860	3+2 (855/45)
37	Bozzone, Terenzo	V	3850	1+3 (1600/320)
—	Gomez, Javier	NV	3750	0+2
38	Bretscher, Daniel	V	3745	2+3 (1600/20)
39	Blanchart Tinto, Miquel	V	3700	3+1 (960/0)
40	Bell, Luke	V	3665	2+3 (160/345)
(41)	Chrabot, Matt	V	3630	1+3 (1600/640)
(42)	Cartmell, Fraser	V	3545	3+2 (50/15)
(43)	Manocchio, Guilherme	V	3540	2+2
(44)	Chevrot, Denis	V	3540	2+2

As a previous champion and with his validation race at IM Australia, Pete Jacobs is another Automatic Qualifier (even if he is well outside the Top40).

Female KPR Ranking

As for the male side, there was only one slot rolling down: Yvonne Van Vlerken declined, and Dimity-Lee Duke now received a July slot.

Rank	Name	Validated	Points	Races
AQ	Ryf, Daniela	V	15450	2+3 (4000/500)
AQ	Swallow, Jodie	V	14370	2+3 (4000/750)
1	Steffen, Caroline	V	13055	3+2 (2890/750)
2	Joyce, Rachel	V	11100	2+3 (2890/320)
AQ	Carfrae, Mirinda	V	10275	2+2
3	Gajer, Julia	V	9905	2+3 (3400/500)
4	Kessler, Meredith	V	8960	2+3 (2000/1275)
5	Crawford, Gina	V	8940	3+2 (1600/640)
AQ	Monticeli, Ariane	V	7810	3+2 (960/500)
6	Lyles, Elizabeth	V	7790	2+1
7	Blatchford, Liz	V	7770	3+2 (1280/640)
AQ	Naeth, Angela	V	7580	2+3 (2000/400)
8	Ellis, Mary Beth	V	7515	2+2
9	Wurtele, Heather	V	7390	2+3 (1335/750)
10	Gossage, Lucy	V	7190	2+3 (2000/400)
DECL	Van Vlerken, Yvonne	V	7160	3+2 (720/500)
11	Wutti, Eva	V	6920	3+2 (1670/500)
12	Stevens, Amanda	V	6290	3+2 (720/540)
13	Cheetham, Susie	V	6290	2+3 (1280/640)
14	Riesler, Diana	V	6270	3+1 (2000/0)
15	Pedersen, Camilla	V	5875	2+3 (1600/320)
16	Gerdes, Beth	V	5795	3+2 (960/345)
17	Martin, Britta	V	5340	3+1 (1335/0)
18	Brennan-Morrey, Ruth	V	5325	2+3 (1600/35)
AQ	Cave, Leanda	V	5290	2+2
19	Jackson, Heather	V	5285	2+3 (1280/540)
20	Hufe, Mareen	V	5255	3+2 (1280/500)
DECL	Huetthaler, Lisa	V	5195	2+2
21	Chura, Haley	V	5150	2+3 (1670/240)
22	Luxford, Annabel	V	5080	1+3 (1670/920)
23	Williamson, Kelly	V	5055	3+2 (565/320)
24	Abraham, Corinne	V	4725	2+0
25	Deckers, Tine	V	4660	2+2
26	Lundstroem, Asa	V	4625	3+1 (855/0)
27	Duke, Dimity-Lee	V	4585	3+2 (960/345)
28	Griesbauer, Dede	V	4500	2+2
(29)	Piampiano, Sarah	V	4410	2+3 (1280/320)
(30)	Clifford, Ashley	V	4130	3+1 (1070/0)
AQ	Hauschildt, Melissa	V	4000	1+0
(31)	Wassner, Laurel	V	3760	3+2 (230/135)
(32)	Snow, Caitlin	V	3735	3+1 (340/0)

In my post on Why I am #50WomenToKona I mentioned that Kona WPROs raced more often than their male counterparts:

For Kona 2014, the average number of IMs of the male Pros is 2.8, while the female Pros had raced 3.4 IMs.

Some of the feedback I have received indicate that this not widely known, so this post adds some more detail.

First of all, a clear definition of what I mean by “number of IMs before Kona 2014”. Here are the conditions I have used for the averages used in my post:

• races on or after August 31st 2013 (the date of IM Japan, the start of Kona 2014 qualifying)
• races before October 11th 2014 (the date of the Kona race)
• Ironman-distance races (regardless of wether they are “official” Ironman races or races run by other organizations such as Challenge)
• races that an athlete started (so including finishes as well as DNFs – both are counting towards the “fatigue” an athlete has to deal with before Kona)

Some of these conditions can be fiddled with, but the overall result is still the same – WPRO have raced around 0.5 more IMs than their male counterparts. Here’s a quick comparison of different conditions:

	Male Average	Female average
IM-distance starts	2.87	3.44
Ironman starts	2.75	3.25
Ironman finishes	2.40	2.94
Ironman finishes up to August	2.40	2.92
Ironman results counting in KPR	2.28	2.79

Staying with my original definition of “IM-distance starts”, here is a look at the distribution of athletes for the number of races before Kona:

You can clearly see that the main cluster of male athletes has done two or three IMs, while most of the women have done three or four races.

Here is a detailed look at the athletes in each of the groups:

No of Races	Male	Female
1	Terenzo Bozzone Richie Cunningham Jan Frodeno Paul Matthews Andy Potts Timothy Reed	Catriona Morrison
2	Bart Aernouts Craig Alexander Igor Amorelli Kyle Buckingham Daniel Fontana Joe Gambles Ben Hoffman Jeremy Jurkiewicz Sebastian Kienle Timothy O’Donnell Filip Ospaly Ivan Rana Andrew Starykowicz Boris Stein Tim Van Berkel Frederik Van Lierde Cyril Viennot	Corinne Abraham Liz Blatchford Leanda Cave Daniela Ryf Caitlin Snow Kelly Williamson Heather Wurtele
3	Faris Al-Sultan Marko Albert Tyler Butterfield James Cunnama Victor Del Corral Bevan Docherty Nils Frommhold Elliot Holtham Pete Jacobs Christian Kramer Eneko Llanos Chris McDonald Luke McKenzie TJ Tollakson Maik Twelsiek Marino Vanhoenacker Michael Weiss	Simone Braendli Mirinda Carfrae Linsey Corbin Mary Beth Ellis Lucy Gossage Rachel Joyce Meredith Kessler Caroline Steffen Amanda Stevens Jodie Swallow Yvonne Van Vlerken
4	Paul Ambrose Romain Guillaume Marek Jaskolka David Plese Andreas Raelert Ronnie Schildknecht Axel Zeebroek	Natascha Badmann Gina Crawford Amber Ferreira Julia Gajer Sofie Goos Asa Lundstroem Elizabeth Lyles Kristin Moeller Kim Schwabenbauer Beth Shutt Michelle Vesterby Bree Wee
5	Christian Brader Justin Daerr Daniel Halksworth	Melanie Burke Katja Konschak Lisa Roberts
6		Sara Gross
7	Harry Wiltshire	Jackie Hering
8	Matthew Russell

Not all of this racing has been motivated by a desire to qualify for Kona – of course there are other reasons for racing such as trying to win an Ironman or to earn some prize money. Looking at those athletes with five or more races, I think that they were motivated more by trying to qualify than by making money: Only Sara Gross has made more than 20,000$ – she made 40,000$ by winning IM Brasil and IM Mt. Tremblant – but she to race Mt. Tremblant in order to qualify.

In summary, the data shows that women Pros raced more often than their male counterparts. The data also indicates that this is a result of the lower number of Kona slots for women and the resulting higher number of points needed to qualify.

Three weeks ago, there was a discussion about the start gap between MPRO and WPRO when Angela Naeth received a drafting penalty at 70.3 Oceanside (see my analysis on Oceanside). This weekend, the discussion flared up again after the 70.3 in New Orleans when Lauren Goss posted the following tweet:

Here’s a closer look at how the New Orleans race unfolded for the Professional Men (blue) and women (red):

You can see that the start gap was at five minutes (as compared to three minutes for Oceanside). Clearly, the front of the women were riding with a number of Pro Men who had a slower swim. 

I’ve made the following recommendations after Oceanside:

1. Increase the gap between MPRO and WPRO to at least nine minutes. (Logistically, ten minutes might be simpler and would be even safer.)
2. Any MPRO that is overtaken by a WPRO has to sit up until being cleanly passed and after that keep at least a 20 meter gap, even is that impacts his own race.

From Lauren’s description, it seems obvious that the men that she and Jennifer Spieldenner rode up to were interfering with the women’s race and did not observe my recommendation #2. As for the first suggestion, here’s how the race would have looked with a ten minute gap:

Similar to Oceanside, having a ten minute gap would have avoided any overlap between MPRO and FPRO fields. It would be great to see the recommendations taken up in future races. Even without resorting to more drastic measures such as DQ’ing MPRO that get overtaken by the leading woman, a ten-minute gap would allow the women to have a much cleaner race than what we are often seeing with a smaller gap.