Analysis

With the Kona Pro startlists finalized (see my posts on the male and female fields), this post looks at which nation the Pros are from and which nations have the most Pros.

Overall

Here are the numbers of professional athletes from different nations in Kona this year:

• 17: Germany, USA
  There are actually 19 PROs that qualified from Germany, but Mareen Hufe and Natascha Schmitt had to withdraw.
• 11: Australia (after the withdrawal of Pete Jacobs)
• 9: Great Britain
• 6: Switzerland
• 4: Belgium, Spain, Canada, Denmark
• 3: Brasil, France, Austria
• 2: South Africa, Estonia, New Zealand,
• 1: Croatia, Netherlands, Italy, Bermuda, Finland, Sweden, Portugal, Slovenia

As you can see, the US has been dominating the field for a long time by quite a large margin, this year would have been the first time Germany could have taken the top spot.

Female

The next chart shows the breakdown for the Female Pros – here the USA is still clearly the nation with the largest number of athletes:

Male

Things are a little bit different on the male side. This year Germany has the most male Pros, the first time as the “outright” leader. In the past there has been a back and forth between the USA, Australia and Germany:

Here is my calculation of the KPR at the end of August, deciding the final 10 male and 7 female slots (in addition to the July qualifiers). My results are unofficial, the official results will be posted on the Ironman website at http://eu.ironman.com/triathlon/triathlon-rankings/points-system.aspx (but as far as I can tell shows the same data). I will update this post with new information regarding declined slots and rolldown. For now, the athletes with a rank in brackets (e.g. “(11)”) are outside of the August slots. I will update this post with information about slot declines and rolldowns.

Update Aug 22nd: Annah Watkinson announced that she will decline her slot, it rolls down to Michaela Herlbauer:

Update Aug 23rd: Callum Millward has received a roll-down slot from Chris Leiferman.

Update Aug 26th: All slots have been accepted, there have been no further rolldowns.

Male Slots

Female Slots

The final races for 2016 qualifying are going to be on the upcoming weekend of August 21st. While the last 70.3 at Timberman sees athletes already qualified or too far back, there are a of athletes looking for slots in the final three full-distance Ironman races (Mont Tremblant, Sweden as WPRO only and Copenhagen as MPRO only). The races on August 28th are already part of the 2017 qualifying period. This post looks at the final slots to be decided based on the rankings before the last weekend and the start lists posted on the Ironman website.

After the races are over, I’ll post the unofficial rankings based on my calculations as soon as possible.

Women

Based on the current situation, the first three of the remaining slots will go to Mary Beth Ellis, Saleta Castro and Bianca Steurer.

Here is a table at the athletes currently in the qualifying slots and those that are still able to move into the Top 7 August slots:

(Please note that “Needed” is the minimum result needed for qualifying, however it does not assure a slot when others add points as well.)

Men

The men’s situation is a lot more dynamic. Here’s a table looking at the athletes on the bubble and those that still have a chance to pass Paul Matthews who is currently in the last qualifying spot:

(Please note that “Needed” is the minimum result needed for qualifying, however it does not assure a slot when others add points as well.)

On Wednesday, July 27th Ironman sent out a “Pro Membership Update” email to their professional athletes. (A big thank you to the athletes who forwarded their emails to me or posted it online.) Among a number of smaller changes there are also going to be changes to the Kona Pro Ranking, starting with Kona 2017 qualifying. This post has a closer look at the changes and their implications.

KPR Changes

Here’s the section of the email that’s relevant to Kona Qualiying:

2017 – KPR SCORING:
The scoring structure will adjust to be calculated using an athletes FOUR (4) highest scoring events. The KPR will be calculated using the Kona Points from no more than two (2) Ironman® 70.3®-Branded Kona-Qualifying Races and no more than three (3) Ironman®-Branded Kona-Qualifying Races.

Here is the corresponding section in the current KPR rules as posted on the Ironman website:

A Pro Athlete’s KPR is calculated using the athlete’s five (5) highest scoring Kona-Qualifying Races.

KPRs are calculated using the Kona Points from no more than three (3) Ironman® 70.3®-Branded Kona-Qualifying Races and no more than three (3) Ironman®-Branded Kona-Qualifying Races.

Comparing the two rules, the changes are as follows:

• Instead of five races only four will be included in the total score.
• The total score can include only two 70.3 instead of three.

Impact

I have re-run the July 2016 qualifying cycle with the new rules for calculating the total score of an athlete. Assuming that the athletes would have decided on the same racing schedules under the new rules, these are the changes that would have occurred:

• The men’s July cutoff would have been at 3.490 points instead of 3.620 points.
• The only male athlete not qualifying under the new rules would have been Trevor Wurtele, his total would have been reduced from 3.725 to 3.100 as the lowest scoring of his three good 70.3s would have been removed. Instead Bertrand Billard would have qualified, he had only four races in his total which therefore would have been unchanged at 3.490.
• The female cutoff would have occurred at 4.095 instead of 4.490 points.
• As on the male side, there would have been one different qualifier: Instead of Alexandra Tondeur with three 70.3s a slot would have gone to Carrie Lester with four scoring races.

Based on this simulation the changes are relatively small:

• The cutoff is reduced, but qualifying with only one or two Ironman races is still quite hard. Unless you can score major points in Kona, racing (at least) three Ironman races is still required in order to qualify.
• Reducing the number of races in the total further increases the reward for racing well and finishing on the podium.
• The number of points from 70.3 races is reduced, therefore Ironman racing becomes more important for Kona qualifying (as should be the case).

In my eyes these rule changes don’t address the main concern about the KPR: Requiring frequent racing on the Ironman distance (especially for the women) tires athletes and increases the risk for injuries, and often athletes can’t show their best races in Kona. Nonetheless, the changes are in the right direction and my overall my assessment of these rule changes is positive.