IM Cairns

Race Conditions

Conditions in Cairns were very good this year: An adjustment of 12:14 is significantly faster than the course rating of 5:10 and the fastest ever on this course. Not surprisingly both the male and female course records were broken: Josh Amberger’s 8:02 was a 13-minute improvement on the old record by Tim Berkel, and Sarah Crowley’s 8:58 improved on a 9:06 by Jodie Swallow.

The main difference to previous years was on the bike, consequently there were also two new bike records: Cameron Wurf posted a 4:15 (bettering Luke McKenzie’s 2013 time by 6 minutes) and Sarah Crowley rode 4:50:00 (just a 40 second improvement on the 2015 ride by Jodie). Both second place finishers missed the run course records by only a few seconds – the records by Tim Berkel and Linsey Corbin still stand.

Male Race Results

Josh Amberger was leading the race from start to finish. He posted the fastest swim time (closely followed by Clayton Fettell – pretty much as expected), had the second fastest bike ride and then also posted a solid 2:53 marathon to win with a time just over 8 hours – improving his Ironman PR by more than 40 minutes and much quicker than expected by his single IM finish in South Africa!

My expectation before the race was that the race would come down to who would have the best run of the solid bike riders. This was pretty much what happened – with the exception of Josh who all day long was in front of the field. In second to fourth place are the athletes with the best, second best and fourth best marathon times: Joe Gambles was finally able to show his potential on the IM distance and added the fastest marathon to a solid bike ride, almost running down Josh. Third place went to IM New Zealand winner Braden Currie. Last year’s Cairns winner Tim Berkel was in a solid position for most of the race, but he had one bad patch on the run and eventually had to settle for fourth place. David Dellow was probably still a bit tired after his win at IM Australia just five weeks ago, still finishing fifth to secure his Kona slot. 

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to exp.	Prize Money	KPR Points
1	Josh Amberger	AUS	00:47:15	04:17:29	02:53:26	08:02:17	-39:36	US$ 30,000	4000
2	Joe Gambles	AUS	00:50:02	04:25:19	02:44:30	08:04:03	-19:57	US$ 15,000	3400
3	Braden Currie	NZL	00:49:46	04:26:12	02:47:56	08:07:46	-08:40	US$ 8,000	2890
4	Tim Van Berkel	AUS	00:49:50	04:25:46	02:49:54	08:09:22	-03:42	US$ 6,500	2455
5	David Dellow	AUS	00:49:49	04:25:51	02:51:32	08:11:33	-01:51	US$ 5,000	2090
6	Michael Fox	AUS	00:49:45	04:25:56	02:51:53	08:11:42	-14:10	US$ 3,500	1670
7	Cameron Wurf	AUS	00:49:49	04:15:13	03:02:35	08:11:55	-29:05	US$ 2,500	1335
8	Mark Bowstead	NZL	00:49:48	04:25:44	02:56:42	08:16:37	-02:47	US$ 2,000	1070
9	Cameron Brown	NZL	00:50:13	04:35:17	02:49:15	08:19:08	03:14	US$ 1,500	855
10	Daniil Sapunov	UKR	00:49:57	04:35:14	02:51:27	08:21:14	-14:34	US$ 1,000	685
11	Callum Millward	NZL	00:50:08	04:35:09	02:54:53	08:24:26	03:53		515
12	Clayton Fettell	AUS	00:47:16	04:28:43	03:13:46	08:33:45	03:55		385
13	Michael Ruenz	GER	00:57:54	04:34:22	02:58:49	08:35:44	01:27		290
14	Nathan Shearer	AUS	00:58:14	04:33:48	03:08:44	08:45:15	-38:17		215
15	Jens Petersen-Bach	DEN	00:49:57	04:55:13	03:00:52	08:50:32	28:12		160
16	Paul Speed	AUS	00:57:06	04:47:50	03:09:13	08:58:28	n/a		120
17	Leigh Stabryla	AUS	00:50:09	05:06:29	02:59:47	09:01:03	-02:02		90
18	Samuel Murphy	AUS	00:57:16	05:05:13	03:07:58	09:14:20	-12:28		70
	Casey Munro	AUS	00:49:48	04:26:09		DNF
	Jeff Symonds	CAN	00:49:56	04:35:14		DNF
	Simon Cochrane	NZL	00:50:06	04:42:43		DNF
	Jonathan Shearon	USA	00:57:11	04:42:02		DNF
	Kaito Tohara	JPN	00:54:26	04:45:25		DNF
	Ryan Palazzi	AUS	00:52:00	05:03:47		DNF
	Pedro Gomes	POR	00:49:52	05:07:32		DNF
	Courtney Ogden	AUS	00:49:54			DNF
	Carl Read	NZL	00:57:23			DNF

Female Race Results

As expected Karen Thibodeau was leading the race after the swim, but Sarah Crowley was just a few seconds behind and quickly went to the front after the start of the bike. She quickly started to pull away from the rest of the field, and even the strong biker Sarah Piampiano – as is typical for her a few minutes behind after the swim, but also loosing some time with zipper issues in T1 – wasn’t able to make up any ground. By T2 the lead was around 14 minutes. Sarah P went on to have the best run of the day with a 3:02 marathon to finish second, but Sarah C ran a solid 3:06 marathon to claim the win with a sub-9 course record time.

Third place went to Kristin Moeller backing up just two weeks after IM Brasil – a 3:03 marathon was “slow” for her but still good enough to run through the rest of the field. Dimity-Lee Duke had a good race to finish fourth, almost getting caught by another German, Katharina Grohmann who finished fifth. 

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to exp.	Prize Money	KPR Points
1	Sarah Crowley	AUS	00:57:06	04:50:00	03:06:01	08:58:14	-22:43	US$ 30,000	4000
2	Sarah Piampiano	USA	01:05:38	04:52:58	03:02:49	09:08:20	-02:49	US$ 15,000	3400
3	Kristin Moeller	GER	01:05:22	05:00:50	03:03:29	09:14:08	-15:02	US$ 8,000	2890
4	Dimity-Lee Duke	AUS	01:01:27	04:58:47	03:14:32	09:20:04	-09:39	US$ 6,500	2455
5	Katharina Grohmann	GER	01:13:02	04:57:19	03:06:36	09:21:16	-20:47	US$ 5,000	2090
6	Jessica Mitchell	AUS	01:05:17	04:59:42	03:18:29	09:29:50	-34:45	US$ 3,500	1670
7	Tine Holst	DEN	01:06:50	04:59:12	03:20:15	09:31:00	-05:25	US$ 2,500	1335
8	Diane Luethi	SUI	01:01:23	05:01:02	03:29:11	09:37:28	-07:53	US$ 2,000	1070
9	Karen Thibodeau	CAN	00:57:01	05:11:54	03:40:25	09:54:38	10:47	US$ 1,500	855
10	Sarah Graves	USA	01:15:24	05:17:16	03:19:01	09:58:01	02:21	US$ 1,000	685
11	Jenny Fletcher	CAN	01:01:21	05:12:53	03:49:00	10:10:05	20:35		515
	Marina Jurjevic	AUS	01:06:02	04:58:52		DNF
	Tamsyn Hayes	NZL	01:05:23	04:59:56		DNF

Kona Qualifying Implications

Here are the notable changes in Kona Qualifying on the male side (projected July cutoff 3.500 points):

• Automatic Qualifier: Josh Amberger
• Safe for a July slot: Braden Currie (5.640), Joe Gambles (4.960), David Dellow (4.610), Tim Berkel (3.955)
• On the Bubble (might be enough, but maybe not): Michael Fox (3.355)
• Close (but more points needed): Cam Brown (2.770), Daniil Sapunov (2.710), Mark Bowstead (2.640)

On the female side (projected cutoff 4.300 points):

• Automatic Qualifier: Sara Crowley
• Safe for a July slot: Sarah Piampiano (9.570, was already safe before)
• On the Bubble (might be enough, but maybe not): Katharina Grohmann (4.470), Kristin Moeller (4.180), Dimity-Lee Duke (4.135)
• Close (but more points needed): Jessica Mitchell (3.525), Tine Holst (3.035)

IM Cairns closes the Southern hemisphere racing season – as it’s the fourth of the Regional Championships, the field is pretty strong and deep. The first years this race was held as “Challenge Cairns”, then the race organizer was bought by Ironman. It’s been a Regional Championship since 2016.

Update June 7th: Among a few other updates, Denis Chevrot was forced to withdraw – injuries from a crash make racing impossible for him.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2011	Chris McCormack (AUS)	08:15:56	Rebekah Keat (AUS)	09:26:31
2012	David Dellow (AUS)	08:15:04	Carrie Lester (AUS)	09:21:00
2013	Luke McKenzie (AUS)	08:17:43	Liz Blatchford (AUS)	09:19:51
2014	Cameron Brown (NZL)	08:20:15	Liz Blatchford (AUS)	09:16:58
2015	Luke McKenzie (AUS)	08:18:01	Liz Blatchford (AUS)	09:11:49
2016	Tim Van Berkel (AUS)	08:15:03	Jodie Cunnama (GBR)	09:06:18

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Tim Van Berkel	AUS	00:47:26	04:36:58	02:46:31	08:15:03
2	David Dellow	AUS	00:46:34	04:37:59	02:50:13	08:19:13
3	Pete Jacobs	AUS	00:46:32	04:35:11	03:02:14	08:28:28

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Jodie Cunnama	GBR	00:49:06	04:50:40	03:21:28	09:06:18
2	Linsey Corbin	USA	00:57:26	05:08:26	03:02:01	09:12:50
3	Sarah Crowley	AUS	00:57:28	05:03:50	03:14:02	09:19:56

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:15:03	Tim Van Berkel	2016-06-12
Swim	overall	00:43:48	Clayton Fettell	2011-06-05
Bike	overall	04:21:52	Luke McKenzie	2013-06-01
Run	overall	02:44:24	Tim Van Berkel	2013-06-01
Total	female	09:06:18	Jodie Cunnama	2016-06-12
Swim	female	00:49:06	Jodie Cunnama	2016-06-12
Bike	female	04:50:40	Jodie Cunnama	2016-06-12
Run	female	03:02:01	Linsey Corbin	2016-06-12

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Cairns is 03:59.

Race Adjustments for IM Cairns

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2011	06:26	01:41	03:54	01:36	16	06:26	01:41	03:54	01:36
2012	06:49	-00:44	08:11	-01:50	22	06:37	00:28	06:02	-00:07
2013	02:58	-01:34	08:26	-05:54	16	05:24	-00:12	06:50	-02:03
2014	04:15	-02:18	03:33	02:35	16 of 21	05:07	-00:44	06:01	-00:53
2015	06:14	01:44	04:18	00:00	16 of 19	05:20	-00:14	05:40	-00:43
2016	-02:45	-00:12	03:18	03:15	28 of 36	03:59	-00:14	05:17	-00:03

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Cairns is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$.

Estimated Time Plan

The following table shows the time plan for the race start and the estimated times for the first athlete in the transition zones or across the finish line. The estimates are based on the start time and my time estimates, these times can change based on how fast or slow the race ends up:

What	Est. Racetime	Est. Local Time
Male Pro Start		07:35
Female Pro Start		07:36
Age Group Start		07:45
First Male in T1	00:46:04	08:21
First Female in T1	00:54:18	08:30
First Male in T2	05:15:32	12:50
First Female in T2	06:03:40	13:39
Male Winner	08:15:17	15:50
Female Winner	09:18:35	16:54

Cairns is on Australian Eastern Standard Time, 10 hours ahead of UTC, the same time zone as Sydney. Here are the conversions to a few other time zones:

• – 8 hours: Central Europe (CEST), race starts at 11:35pm on Saturday
• – 9 hours: United Kingdom (BST), race starts at 10:35pm on Saturday
• – 14 hours: US East Coast (EDT), race starts at 5:35pm on Saturday
• – 17 hours: US West Coast (PDT), race starts at 2:35pm on Saturday

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 19% of a typical Kona field.

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. T2	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	1	Tim Van Berkel	AUS	08:15:17	08:24:09	00:47:49	04:34:15	05:27:04	02:48:13	67% +19% -14% (21)	17
2	2	David Dellow	AUS	08:17:31	08:24:32	00:47:17	04:32:42	05:24:59	02:52:32	80% +1% -19% (16)	19
3	5	Braden Currie	NZL	08:19:00	08:37:41	00:46:35	04:36:45	05:28:20	02:50:40	26% +74% -0% (2)	(61)
4	4	Cameron Brown	NZL	08:21:29	08:27:12	00:51:10	04:36:25	05:32:35	02:48:54	57% +11% -33% (34)	24
5	11	Callum Millward	NZL	08:25:10	08:31:59	00:49:02	04:35:19	05:29:21	02:55:49	55% +0% -45% (7)	37
6	3	Jeff Symonds	CAN	08:25:49	08:34:13	00:51:26	04:44:11	05:40:36	02:45:13	65% +0% -35% (9)	46
7	13	Fredrik Croneborg	SWE	08:27:08	08:34:05	00:51:33	04:35:44	05:32:17	02:54:51	68% +22% -10% (12)	43
8	16	Mark Bowstead	NZL	08:28:20	08:40:55	00:48:44	04:35:07	05:28:51	02:59:29	100% +0% -0% (2)	(74)
9	6	Jens Petersen-Bach	DEN	08:28:32	08:39:30	00:50:56	04:40:53	05:36:49	02:51:43	54% +0% -46% (18)	67
10	14	Denis Chevrot	FRA	08:30:14	08:34:11	00:47:23	04:40:27	05:32:50	02:57:24	65% +6% -29% (11)	45
11	10	Joe Gambles	AUS	08:30:42	08:34:58	00:49:36	04:35:51	05:30:28	03:00:14	39% +12% -49% (10)	50
12	20	Pedro Gomes	POR	08:33:11	08:40:25	00:52:30	04:39:42	05:37:13	02:55:58	58% +1% -41% (26)	71
13	15	Michael Fox	AUS	08:33:22	08:42:11	00:46:56	04:41:03	05:33:00	03:00:22	78% +22% -0% (4)	77
14	9	Clayton Fettell	AUS	08:34:26	08:41:28	00:46:04	04:31:51	05:22:54	03:11:32	52% +11% -36% (11)	76
15	27	Daniil Sapunov	UKR	08:38:08	08:52:25	00:48:55	04:48:55	05:42:50	02:55:18	72% +28% -0% (4)	107
16	22	Ritchie Nicholls	GBR	08:38:15	08:55:11	00:51:31	04:50:17	05:46:49	02:51:26	35% +0% -65% (7)	120
17	30	Jonathan Shearon	USA	08:42:28	08:51:13	00:54:14	04:37:48	05:37:02	03:05:26	63% +9% -28% (17)	101
18	23	Courtney Ogden	AUS	08:42:30	08:45:09	00:51:11	04:41:22	05:37:33	03:04:57	63% +6% -31% (21)	85
19	26	Michael Ruenz	GER	08:42:55	08:51:13	00:56:35	04:46:10	05:47:45	02:55:10	71% +0% -29% (9)	101
20	17	Giles Clayton	AUS	08:43:09	09:00:18	00:48:55	04:44:06	05:38:01	03:05:08	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(145)
21	35	Thiago Vinhal	BRA	08:43:10	08:57:06	00:49:54	04:49:27	05:44:21	02:58:49	58% +34% -8% (13)	128
22	19	Casey Munro	AUS	08:43:25	09:14:04	00:47:20	04:36:52	05:29:12	03:14:13	23% +0% -77% (6)	(180)
23	8	Luke Bell	AUS	08:44:30	08:46:00	00:48:58	04:36:25	05:30:23	03:14:07	23% +9% -68% (33)	91
24	33	Kaito Tohara	JPN	08:45:12	08:57:39	00:53:53	04:51:06	05:49:59	02:55:13	27% +63% -10% (9)	134
25	18	Simon Cochrane	NZL	08:46:21	08:58:07	00:50:38	04:45:31	05:41:09	03:05:12	68% +17% -14% (19)	135
26	34	Cameron Wurf	AUS	08:47:26	08:57:29	00:49:52	04:20:40	05:15:32	03:31:54	27% +73% -0% (3)	130
27	12	Levi Maxwell	AUS	08:49:27	09:04:50	00:54:19	04:50:40	05:50:00	02:59:27	48% +52% -0% (2)	(158)
28	7	Josh Amberger	AUS	08:51:30	09:08:57	00:48:14	04:32:59	05:26:14	03:25:16	62% +0% -38% (2)	(167)
29	25	Carl Read	NZL	08:59:10	09:17:32	00:53:52	04:57:39	05:56:31	03:02:39	60% +6% -34% (12)	192
30	32	Leigh Stabryla	AUS	09:12:36	09:37:53	00:51:50	05:12:28	06:09:18	03:03:18	31% +0% -69% (3)	(246)
31	24	Ryan Palazzi	AUS	09:27:01	09:52:57	00:50:45	04:51:08	05:46:53	03:40:08	45% +0% -55% (2)	(269)
32	21	Samuel Murphy	AUS	09:28:16	09:56:54	00:56:57	05:06:09	06:08:07	03:20:09	28% +0% -72% (3)	(276)
33	29	Nathan Shearer	AUS	09:34:02	09:52:52	00:57:07	05:11:24	06:13:30	03:20:32	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(269)
	28	Peter Schokman	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	31	Paul Speed	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 18% of a typical Kona field.

Linsey Corbin is on the official start list, but as she has raced IM Brasil and secured enough points to qualify for Kona, I’d be very surprised to see her race in Cairns and have left her out of my race predictions. (June 6th: She has confirmed that she won’t be racing in Cairns.) Kirsty Jahn is still recovering from a stress fracture and won’t be racing.

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. T2	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
	57	Linsey Corbin	USA		09:20:53					92% +8% -0% (22)	14
1	40	Sarah Piampiano	USA	09:18:35	09:23:34	01:02:54	05:03:03	06:10:57	03:07:38	78% +15% -7% (17)	17
2	41	Sarah Crowley	AUS	09:20:35	09:33:08	00:57:05	05:01:35	06:03:40	03:16:55	72% +28% -0% (4)	34
3	45	Jennie Hansen	USA	09:35:53	09:45:01	01:04:46	05:15:17	06:25:03	03:10:50	71% +0% -29% (10)	(54)
4	43	Kristin Moeller	GER	09:36:31	09:41:43	01:03:28	05:23:59	06:32:26	03:04:05	73% +6% -21% (23)	48
5	50	Kirsty Jahn	CAN	09:37:19	10:02:13	00:59:32	05:21:58	06:26:31	03:10:48	32% +0% -68% (2)	(78)
6	44	Dimity-Lee Duke	AUS	09:39:49	09:48:13	01:00:35	05:13:57	06:19:32	03:20:17	69% +14% -17% (12)	57
7	42	Tine Holst	DEN	09:43:26	09:55:15	01:04:47	05:13:26	06:23:12	03:20:14	71% +11% -18% (14)	70
8	47	Michelle Gailey	AUS	09:47:17	09:52:56	00:56:25	05:21:42	06:23:07	03:24:10	84% +0% -16% (11)	66
9	46	Katharina Grohmann	GER	09:49:36	10:00:43	01:11:21	05:16:30	06:32:51	03:16:45	85% +15% -0% (15)	73
10	55	Karen Thibodeau	CAN	09:51:31	10:03:18	00:54:18	05:24:32	06:23:49	03:27:42	66% +0% -34% (13)	80
11	53	Diane Luethi	SUI	09:55:17	10:04:25	00:56:55	05:20:50	06:22:45	03:32:32	100% +0% -0% (3)	87
12	51	Jenny Fletcher	CAN	10:01:23	10:15:27	00:58:08	05:23:16	06:26:25	03:34:58	100% +0% -0% (2)	(108)
13	48	Sarah Graves	USA	10:06:41	10:15:18	01:12:54	05:24:34	06:42:27	03:24:14	100% +0% -0% (5)	(108)
14	52	Jessica Mitchell	AUS	10:09:22	10:23:39	01:04:25	05:27:13	06:36:38	03:32:44	56% +44% -0% (3)	118
15	54	Marina Jurjevic	AUS	10:12:37	10:24:52	01:07:33	05:20:23	06:32:55	03:39:42	61% +0% -39% (7)	123
16	56	Tamsyn Hayes	NZL	10:12:37	10:25:39	01:02:03	05:20:00	06:27:03	03:45:34	51% +5% -44% (14)	125
17	49	Alison Fitch	AUS	10:29:42	10:35:09	00:56:28	05:40:07	06:41:34	03:48:08	3% +0% -97% (10)	142

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Tim Van Berkel: 45% (1-1)
• David Dellow: 21% (4-1)
• Braden Currie: 12% (7-1)
• Fredrik Croneborg: 10% (9-1)
• Cameron Brown: 8% (12-1)
• Jeff Symonds: 2% (62-1)

Female Race Participants

• Sarah Piampiano: 55% (1-1)
• Sarah Crowley: 34% (2-1)
• Jennie Hansen: 4% (24-1)
• Kristin Moeller: 3% (34-1)
• Tine Holst: 2% (56-1)

Kona Qualifying Situation

As IM Cairns is a Regional Championship and there are Automatic Qualifier spots for the winners, every participant has a chance to qualify for Kona. Also the P-4000 race has a lot of KPR points so there are a lot of athletes that should be able to qualify even without winning the race. Here are the minimum finishes for most of the participants.

Male Race Participants

The male cutoff for July is projected to be around 3.500 points. Thiago Vinhal is very close to qualifying, as he just raced IM Brasil he is unlikely to start IM Cairns as well.

• 10th or better (at least 685 points): Kaito Tohara
• 9th (855 points) or better: Fredrik Croneborg, Braden Currie
• 8th (1070 points) or better: David Dellow
• 6th (1670 points) or better: Denis Chevrot, Daniil Sapunov, Cam Brown
• 5th (2090 points) or better: Clayton Fettel, Michael Fox, Jeff Symonds, Josh Amberger, Mark Bowstead, Joe Gambles, Tim Berkel
• 4th (2455 points) or better: Callum Millward
• 3rd (2890 points) or better: Jens Petersen-Bach, Michael Ruenz

Female Race Participants

The female cutoff is likely to be around 4.300 points. Sarah Piampiano is already safe for Kona (as is Linsey Corbin who is unlikely to race).

• 9th (855 points) or better: Sarah Crowley
• 8th (1070 points) or better: Katharina Grohmann
• 4th (2455 points) or better: Jessica Mitchell, Tine Holst, Dimity-Lee Duke, Michelle Gailey
• 3rd (2890 points) or better: Kristin Möller

Male Race Preview

As is typical for a Regional Championship race, there are a lot of contenders for the title and the included Automatic Qualifier slot – too many to mention! With the participants in the field, it also seems clear that the race will be decided pretty late on the run course. Super-swimmer (and swim course record holder) Clayton Fettell is expected to lead the race in T1 and also ride strong. Cameron Wurf will probably be about 4 minutes back after the swim, but he should be able to overtake all the race favorites within the first hour on the bike and take the lead. By T2, the gap to the rest of the field could grow to about seven minutes. Also watch out for Cameron to chase the bike course record (currently 4:21:52 by Luke McKenzie from 2013). But for both Clayton and Cameron, these will have been been their chances to lead the race and the better runners will fight for the win.

The athlete with the best chances is Tim Berkel. In 2016 Tim was very good in the Regional Championships, finishing second in South Africa and winning Cairns. In Kona however, he struggled to stay with the bike group and finished in a disappointing 19th place. He’s raced quite a bit in 70.3s during the Australian summer – with solid results including a win in Vietnam, his last 70.3 before Cairns. In order to win IM Cairns, Tim will have to run at least sub-2:50 – last year he ran a 2:46, so that’s well within his reach on a good day.

Tim’s biggest competitor could be David Dellow. David is coming off a hard-fought win at IM Australia where he battled Tim Reed on the run. That race was just five weeks before Cairns, hopefully giving David enough time to recover for another good race. His main goal is probably to secure enough points for Kona qualifying, an eighth place should be enough for him.

Another athlete that just needs one more solid race to qualify for Kona is New Zealander Braden Currie. Braden was the winner of IM New Zealand and 70.3 Taupo. He’s still a relative newbie to IM racing and is therefore hard to predict. It’ll also be interesting to see how he performs when he is racing in close proximity with a number of other competitors. But if he races anywhere close to the level he showed at New Zealand, he’ll be a very solid contender for at least a podium finish.

Two more athletes from New Zealand will work hard for a podium spot. Cameron Brown is one of the most consistent athletes and even at 44 years of age is still going strong. He likes to be racing closer to home, here’s an interesting stat: The last time he started an Ironman-distance race in Australia or New Zealand and did not finish on the podium was in his first Ironman race in 1997! Callum Millward has put up a great fight with Cam at IM New Zealand in 2016, but a niggle has made it hard for him to repeat that type of performance. Callum needs a big result (fourth or better) to qualify for Kona.

Jeff Symonds was the winner of the last Regional Championships contested in Melbourne in 2015. Last year he broke his elbow just a few days before IM Texas and had to use most of 2016 to properly recover from it. A second place at IM Chattanooga in the fall put him in a good position to qualify for Kona, but he still needs a Top 5 finish in Cairns. It would be cool to see him run through the field with Cam Brown.

Female Race Preview

While there is a large number of male athletes with winning chances, it seems pretty clear that Sarah is going to win the female race. But which one?

My top pick is Sarah Piampiano. After her seventh place in Kona and a third place at Western Australia in her first sub-9 finish, Sarah is already safe for Kona. She has been able to focus on IM Cairns as her first 2017 highlight race. She’s been working on all three legs and would love to go sub-x all day: Sub-1 in the swim, sub-5 on the bike and sub-3 on the run. Each of these would be a great result as my predictions have her slightly above these thresholds.

The other Sarah competing for the title is Sarah Crowley. Sarah C should be slightly faster than Sarah P in the swim and on the bike, based on previous results I see her leading the race by about seven minutes in T2 (a difference Sarah P won’t like to grow quite as large). Sarah P has always been great at making up time on the run, but predicting how much time she can make up to Sarah C is very hard as both athletes are still improving. Sarah C has improved her Cairns run split from by six minutes from 2015 to 2016, Sarah P has run close to 3 hours for a number of times. The projections show Sarah P to take the lead less than 10k from the finish and win by two minutes – the actual result will depend on who has the better form on race day.

The race behind the two Sarahs also promises to be exciting as well – there are a lot of athletes with very close capabilities. Jennie Hansen returns to IM racing after dealing with injuries for almost three years. She has won IM Lake Placid in 2013, but it’s hard to predict how she’ll be able to race in 2017. Kristin Möller has already raced two other Regional Championships (a DNF in South Africa and an 11th in Brasil), she’s looking for a podium finish to qualify for Kona. Dimity-Lee Duke has qualified for Kona in the last two years, she has always raced well close to home and seems to me the likeliest athlete to show a good performance for a podium finish. Tine Holst has ended her title-defense at IM Lanzarote to save energy for a qualifying effort at IM Cairns. After a long break, Michelle Gailey returned to IM racing with a second place at IM Australia just five weeks before Cairns – hopefully she’s recovered well for another good race.

IM Cairns is the fourth of the Regional Championships. This entry list is from May 1st, about three weeks before the final registration deadline, and I expect a few more athletes to enter the race.

Update May 8th: Added Linsey Corbin, Dimity-Lee Duke, Jenny Fletcher, Katharina Grohmann, Tamsyn Hayes, Kirsty Jahn, Josh Amberger, Callum Millward and Casey Munro; also updated the KPR points

Update May 15th: Added Clayton Fettell, Michael Fox, Pedro Gomes, Carl Read, Nathan Shearer, Cameron Wurf on the male side and Michelle Gailey and Marina Jurjevic for the females; also updated the KPR points.

Male Race Participants

Name	Nation	KPR points	KPR races
Kaito Tohara	JPN	3330	3+1 (230/220)
Fredrik Croneborg	SWE	2820	1+2 (2000/320)
Braden Currie	NZL	2750	1+1
David Dellow	AUS	2520	2+1
Denis Chevrot	FRA	2450	2+2 (340/640)
Daniil Sapunov	UKR	2032	2+2 (720/7)
Cameron Brown	NZL	1915	1+2 (1600/135)
Nick Baldwin	SEY	1790	2+2 (405/15)
Clayton Fettell	AUS	1770	2+2 (170/140)
Michael Fox	AUS	1685	2+1
Jeff Symonds	CAN	1665	1+1
Josh Amberger	AUS	1660	1+2 (70/750)
Thiago Vinhal	BRA	1635	1+1
Mark Bowstead	NZL	1570	1+2 (720/415)
Joe Gambles	AUS	1560	1+2 (405/515)
Tim Van Berkel	AUS	1500	1+2 (565/435)
Callum Millward	NZL	1090	2+0
Jens Petersen-Bach	DEN	960	1+0
Michael Ruenz	GER	900	1+1
Ritchie Nicholls	GBR	720	2+2 (170/45)
Levi Maxwell	AUS	625	2+1
Cameron Wurf	AUS	590	2+1
Pedro Gomes	POR	585	1+2 (540/10)
Simon Cochrane	NZL	540	2+1
Luke Bell	AUS	470	0+2 (0/35)
Casey Munro	AUS	435	0+2 (0/90)
Nathan Shearer	AUS	435	1+1
Carl Read	NZL	410	3+0 (20/0)
Paul Speed	AUS	190	0+2 (0/50)
Giles Clayton	AUS	120	1+0
Samuel Murphy	AUS	50	0+2 (0/5)
Leigh Stabryla	AUS	22	0+2 (0/7)
Peter Schokman	AUS	20	0+1

Female Race Participants

Name	Nation	KPR points	KPR races
Sarah Piampiano	USA	6810	2+2 (1280/640)
Sarah Crowley	AUS	3590	1+2 (1375/715)
Katharina Grohmann	GER	2925	3+0 (685/0)
Linsey Corbin	USA	2635	1+2 (1900/320)
Tine Holst	DEN	1700	2+1
Dimity-Lee Duke	AUS	1680	1+2 (880/400)
Michelle Gailey	AUS	1600	1+0
Kirsty Jahn	CAN	1125	0+2 (0/500)
Karen Thibodeau	CAN	1040	1+1
Diane Luethi	SUI	935	2+0
Alison Fitch	AUS	405	1+0
Jennie Hansen	USA	400	0+1
Marina Jurjevic	AUS	365	1+1
Tamsyn Hayes	NZL	280	0+1
Jenny Fletcher	CAN	90	1+0
Sarah Graves	USA	60	0+1