Archive | IM Texas

Ironman Texas 2017 – Analyzing Results

IM Texas was the second of the Regional Championships in 2017, one of five elevated races across the globe with a big prize purse, lots of points for Kona qualifying and automatic qualifier slots for the male and female winners.

I’ll start with a discussion of the race coverage (or rather, the lack of are coverage) – to me Texas was the next step in a disturbing trend that needs to be reversed as soon as possible. If you’re mainly interested in the race results, feel free to skip the next section!

(Lack of) Race Coverage

Ironman received a lot of criticism for their coverage of the 2014 70.3 Championships in Mont Tremblant – a couple of static camera positions without any commentary. At the start of the 2015 racing season Ironman accepted the feedback (“our lack of a hosted live show was a mistake”, Ironman CEO Andrew Messick) and announced plans to highlight the Regional Championships with GPS tracking for professional athletes and an online show with live pictures from moving cameras and commentary hosted by Greg Welch and Michael Lovato. The stated goal was  to “put a brighter spotlight on professional Ironman racing” and to “draw more attention and improve engagement” (again Andrew Messick). The first season was quite promising, and for Kona 2015 an improved athlete tracker that included a GPS leaderboard was in place.

However, the 2016 season was a step backward – the live shows continued but GPS tracking was mostly abandoned (at least for the public). The old Athlete Tracker was back in use – very often stopping to update at the worst moments. Things continued at the lowered level for the first of the 2017 Regional Championships in South Africa: No GPS but at least a live stream provided by a South African TV station with some Ironman commentary.

IM Texas was another major step backwards: just a few static cameras without any commentary, reminiscent of the Mont Tremblant coverage mentioned above. Just as for Mont Tremblant there was no prior communication about the lack of coverage and any reasoning behind it. Lots of fans of Ironman racing only discovered the lack of a live show when they tuned in to follow the race – resulting in a lot of frustrated tweets by friends of the sport.

How will Ironman react to the criticism this time around? Without any communication about dropping the coverage for the North American championships, one can only speculate about their reasoning. The last few years Ironman struggled to define their relationship with the Professionals – races loosing and then regaining Pro fields, their unwillingness to engage in the “50 Women For Kona” discussion even though it had broad support among male and female Pros, or more and more races but with thinner prize purses are just a few examples. However, our sport can only be the best when the goals of Pros and the Ironman brand are as much aligned as possible. I urge the leaders of Ironman to embrace Pro athletes as the best ambassadors of their brand. Renewing their efforts to improve the coverage of races would be an important step.

Race Conditions

Before the race there was a lot of discussion about the impact of this year’s changes for IM Texas: A race date that was a few weeks earlier (resulting in less hot conditions) and a new, flat bike course. While the old men’s course record was at 8:07 (Matt Hanson from 2015), there was speculation that a sub-8 would be needed to win the race. Race day provided temperatures well suited for racing hard (sunny but relatively cool for Texas in April), but apparently there was quite a strong wind that affected the bike leg on the exposed “Hardy Toll Road”. Based on the numbers, the conditions were about 10 minutes quicker than in 2015.

Race day started with a fantastic swim by Lauren Brandon, posting the fastest swim time overall and a new female swim bike course record: Her 48:52 was nearly three minutes quicker than the previous record by Kelly Williamson from 2014. The bike leg was dominated by Andy Starykowicz, his time of 4:01:14 was a new bike course record by almost nine minutes (old record by Joe Skipper from 2015) and a new “fastest IM bike leg ever.” The run was quick as well, but the old course records (2:41 by Matt Hanson and 2:51 by Cait Snow) are still standing.

The overall times provided some new records: Matt Hanson improved his own course record by 15 minutes (most of the improvement coming from a fast bike leg where he quickly closed the gap after the swim), also posting his first sub-8 and a new fastest IM finish for a US athlete. In addition five athletes going sub-8 is also something never seen before in a full Ironman.

Male Race Results

New Pro James Capparell posted the fastest swim time just ahead of Harry Wiltshire, both were closely followed by a larger group. Once on the bike Andy Starykowicz took control of the race, eventually building a lead of more than ten minutes to the second group. It was an amazing performance by Starky as he was run over by a truck in August and severely injured, putting his return to racing in doubt for quite some time. No one else came even within ten minutes of his bike time! By T2 Starky’s lead was about 14 minutes to the other contenders, the closest of the pre-race favorites were Tyler Butterfield and Matt Hanson, with a larger group about 18 minutes back. Starky was able to hold on to his lead until about the half marathon mark, eventually running just under four hours (still beating his bike time!) and finishing in 19th place. It was a great return to Ironman racing for him, and one that will give him extra motivation to continue on his path of recovery and hopefully a return to his best racing form.

When it became apparent that Starky wasn’t in his best running shape, it was clear that Matt Hanson was in the driver’s seat for the title. In the end he posted the second fastest marathon of the day and won by almost four minutes. Ronnie Schildknecht ran just a minute slower than Matt, he was seven off the bike and able to pass almost everyone ahead of him. Tyler Butterfield took the last spot on the podium, his 2:49 was the second fastest marathon he has ever run. Similar to his teammate Ronnie, Will Clarke ran through the field, he postest that fastest marathon of the day, allowing him to advance from 12th after T2 to fourth on the finish line, closely followed by Kirill Kotshegarov in fifth.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Matt Hanson USA 00:51:46 04:13:53 02:42:07 07:52:44 -24:13 US$ 30,000 4000
2 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:53:34 04:14:40 02:43:28 07:56:21 -14:48 US$ 15,000 3400
3 Tyler Butterfield BMU 00:49:08 04:15:20 02:49:00 07:58:29 -20:29 US$ 8,000 2890
4 Will Clarke GBR 00:49:16 04:22:30 02:42:01 07:59:02 -22:43 US$ 6,500 2455
5 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 00:54:56 04:11:16 02:48:00 07:59:32 -21:22 US$ 5,000 2090
6 Matthew Russell USA 00:54:49 04:13:43 02:47:57 08:01:35 -15:43 US$ 3,500 1670
7 Leon Griffin AUS 00:49:18 04:19:25 02:49:16 08:04:04 -46:47 US$ 2,500 1335
8 David Plese SLO 00:55:14 04:13:29 02:51:05 08:05:08 -15:48 US$ 2,000 1070
9 Callum Millward NZL 00:49:35 04:18:56 02:53:24 08:07:13 -11:06 US$ 1,500 855
10 Marc Duelsen GER 00:49:32 04:22:04 02:50:16 08:07:25 -14:54 US$ 1,000 685
11 Daniel Fontana ITA 00:49:09 04:23:49 02:54:53 08:13:14 -06:46 515
12 Bas Diederen NED 00:49:03 04:18:04 03:01:38 08:14:31 06:10 385
13 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 00:55:13 04:20:24 02:55:53 08:16:08 -17:20 290
14 Jonathan Shearon USA 00:55:20 04:23:53 02:56:09 08:21:30 -08:59 215
15 Colin Laughery USA 00:54:35 04:28:49 03:07:51 08:37:52 -22:01 160
16 Jarrod Shoemaker USA 00:49:01 04:44:46 03:01:16 08:40:21 -21:36 120
17 James Capparell USA 00:48:56 04:29:50 03:16:09 08:41:10 n/a 90
18 Adam Gordon AUS 00:56:50 04:32:50 03:07:57 08:42:41 00:23 70
19 Andrew Starykowicz USA 00:49:15 04:01:14 03:58:07 08:54:45 41:54 50
20 Matt Shanks USA 01:00:44 04:56:05 03:04:45 09:07:30 -11:49 40
21 Tomas Mika CZE 00:54:36 05:02:06 03:06:27 09:09:25 24:07 25
22 Peter Kotland CZE 01:00:44 04:42:56 03:20:50 09:12:35 -16:09 25
23 Antony Costes FRA 00:49:10 04:14:37 04:08:31 09:17:17 07:50 25
24 Patrick Schuster USA 01:06:38 04:39:25 03:28:28 09:22:39 04:12 25
25 Timothy Nichols USA 01:14:08 05:05:40 04:28:34 11:01:08 n/a 25
Paul Ambrose AUS 00:49:22 04:22:35 DNF
Ivan Tutukin RUS 00:49:19 04:34:33 DNF
Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 00:49:28 04:42:37 DNF
Harry Wiltshire GBR 00:48:57 04:43:23 DNF
Paul Matthews AUS 00:49:20 04:48:49 DNF
Frank Souza BRA 00:49:23 DNF
Trevor Delsaut FRA 00:55:14 DNF
Jordan Rapp USA 00:55:16 DNF
Joe Skipper GBR 00:55:18 DNF
Matic Modic SLO 00:56:45 DNF

Female Race Results

The female race was dominated by Lauren Brandon for most of the day. After posting the fastest swim of the whole field (including the men!) she also rode strong and started the run with 5 minute gap to Jodie Robertson. For a while Jocelyn McCauley was also in the lead group, but she fell back with technical problems on the bike and eventually finished in 12th place. In T2, Jodie was closely followed by three more podium contenders, Maja Stage Nielsen, Tine Deckers and Alicia Kaye who were less than a minute behind her at the start of the run.

But it was quickly apparent that Jodie would be the best runner of the front group, at mile 10 she took the lead from Lauren and continued to run strong. She won the race with a solid 3:03 marathon which was also fast enough for a sub-9 finish. Second place went to Austrian Michi Herlbauer who had the best run split among the top finishers, also finishing sub-9. Third place went to the Maja Stage Nielsen from Denmark who ran by Alicia Kaye (4th), Tine Deckers (5th) and Lauren Brandon (6th). Kelly Williamson (7th) had the best run of the day, she ran a 2:56:30 marathon. Malindi Elmore in 8th also went sub-3 on the run.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Jodie Robertson USA 01:02:31 04:43:45 03:03:41 08:56:32 -26:11 US$ 30,000 4000
2 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 00:57:57 04:53:47 03:02:27 08:59:31 -11:36 US$ 15,000 3400
3 Maja Stage Nielsen DEN 01:01:02 04:47:31 03:07:45 09:01:00 -11:23 US$ 8,000 2890
4 Alicia Kaye USA 00:52:52 04:55:34 03:11:00 09:04:40 -22:34 US$ 6,500 2455
5 Tine Deckers BEL 01:00:35 04:47:55 03:12:24 09:06:08 -01:54 US$ 5,000 2090
6 Lauren Brandon USA 00:48:52 04:53:03 03:19:25 09:06:25 01:44 US$ 3,500 1670
7 Kelly Williamson USA 00:55:41 05:13:40 02:56:30 09:11:19 -03:29 US$ 2,500 1335
8 Malindi Elmore CAN 01:07:54 04:59:15 02:59:10 09:11:34 10:05 US$ 2,000 1070
9 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 00:59:25 05:01:34 03:07:08 09:13:22 -23:57 US$ 1,500 855
10 Caroline Livesey GBR 01:01:21 04:52:21 03:19:12 09:18:33 -23:09 US$ 1,000 685
11 Celine Schaerer SUI 00:52:55 05:08:12 03:19:02 09:25:34 08:29 515
12 Jocelyn McCauley USA 00:57:40 05:11:48 03:12:40 09:27:42 17:27 385
13 Annett Finger GER 01:02:34 04:58:43 03:27:42 09:33:48 -11:38 290
14 Darbi Roberts USA 00:55:32 05:05:26 03:36:27 09:43:43 19:29 215
15 Erin Green USA 01:03:56 05:10:13 03:27:11 09:48:40 -09:29 160
16 Nicole Luse USA 01:14:35 05:09:54 03:18:24 09:49:00 -23:45 120
17 Shiao-yu Li TWN 01:08:04 05:30:23 03:40:42 10:25:44 48:15 90
Jessica Jones Meyers USA 00:59:29 05:03:55 DNF
Amber Ferreira USA 00:57:52 05:06:56 DNF
Francesca Sanjana GBR 01:07:56 05:15:07 DNF
Ashley Paulson USA 01:14:31 DNF

Kona Qualifying

Here’s a look at the implications for Kona slots on the male side:

  • Automatic Qualifier: Matt Hanson
  • Safe (enough points): Ronnie Schildknecht, Tyler Butterfield, Matt Russell (Matt was already safe)
  • On the Bubble (could be enough, but not sure): David Please, Marc Duelsen
  • Close (more points needed): Daniel Fontana, Will Clarke

And on the female side:

  • Automatic Qualifier: Jodie Robertson
  • Safe: Alicia Kaye, Maja Stage Nielsen
  • On the Bubble: Michaela Herlbauer, Lauren Brandon, Jocelyn McCauley (Jocelyn was on the bubble before, her 12th place was not enough to advance to the “safe” category)
  • Close: Malindi Elmore, Tine Deckers, Celine Schärer

Ironman Texas 2017 (April 22nd) – Seedings

IMTexasLogo

IM Texas is the second of the 2017 Regional Championship races – a lot of Kona points (4.000 for the winner), a large prize purse (150.000 US$) and automatic qualifier slots for the winners practically guarantee strong Pro fields. This year’s lists of participants are very interesting, as both the male and female fields do not seem to have a clear favorite.

Update April 13th: On the latest start list Kyrill Kotshegarov is a late addition while Haley Chura and Kyle Buckingham have withdrawn.

Update April 17th: A few more updates: Jens Petersen-Bach, Nikki Bartlett, Kirsty Jahn and Mackenzie Madison are no longer racing.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:08:20 Catriona Morrison (GBR) 08:57:51
2012 Jordan Rapp (USA) 08:10:44 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 08:54:58
2013 Paul Amey (GBR) 08:25:06 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:49:14
2014 Bevan Docherty (NZL) 08:09:37 Kelly Williamson (USA) 08:54:42
2015 Matt Hanson (USA) 08:07:03 Angela Naeth (CAN) 08:55:19
2016 Patrick Lange (GER) 07:13:13 Julia Gajer (GER) 08:11:01

Last Year’s TOP 3

Last year’s race had a shortened bike leg when there were problems getting the necessary permits and bad weather created the additional need for some last-minute scrambles. Therefore, the winning times are not eligible as course records.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Patrick Lange GER 00:48:57 03:39:28 02:40:01 07:13:13
2 Matthew Russell USA 00:56:41 03:31:47 02:48:14 07:21:56
3 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 00:48:59 03:39:27 02:52:53 07:25:55

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Julia Gajer GER 00:54:51 04:01:44 03:08:49 08:11:01
2 Jodie Robertson USA 01:07:21 04:01:55 02:59:26 08:16:30
3 Lisa Roberts USA 01:06:52 04:06:18 02:59:03 08:17:58

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:07:03 Matt Hanson 2015-05-16
Swim overall 00:46:20 John Flanagan 2011-05-21
Bike overall 04:10:07 Joe Skipper 2015-05-16
Run overall 02:41:38 Matt Hanson 2014-05-17
Total female 08:49:14 Rachel Joyce 2013-05-18
Swim female 00:51:49 Kelly Williamson 2014-05-17
Bike female 04:40:39 Corinne Abraham 2015-05-16
Run female 02:51:46 Caitlin Snow 2012-05-19

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Texas is 11:51.

Race Adjustments for IM Texas

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 11:41 -02:11 19:12 -02:48 41 11:41 -02:11 19:12 -02:48
2012 14:02 -00:50 15:23 03:36 27 12:51 -01:30 17:18 00:24
2013 07:03 -01:11 16:44 01:16 30 of 46 10:55 -01:24 17:06 00:41
2014 17:00 01:02 17:51 03:54 44 of 55 12:26 -00:47 17:17 01:30
2015 09:29 -01:19 19:29 -04:34 33 of 52 11:51 -00:54 17:44 00:17

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Texas is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$.

Estimated Time Plan

The following table shows the time plan for the race start and the estimated times for the first athlete in the transition zones or across the finish line. The estimates are based on the start time and my time estimates, these times can change based on how fast or slow the race ends up:

What Est. Racetime Est. Local Time
Male Pro Start 06:25
Female Pro Start 06:30
Age Group Start 06:40
First Male in T1 0:48  07:13
First Female in T1 0:50  07:20
First Male in T2 5:07  11:32
First Female in T2 5:51  12:21
Male Winner 8:14  14:39 (2:39pm)
Female Winner 9:09  15:39 (3:39 pm)

The Woodlands is on Central Daylight Time, 5 hours ahead of UTC. Here are the conversions to a few other time zones:

  • + 15 hours: Sydney (AEST), race starts at 21:25
  • +7 hours: Central Europe (CEST), race starts at 13:25
  • +6 hours: United Kingdom (BST), race starts at 12:25
  • +1 hour: US East Coast (EDT), race starts at 7:25am
  • – 2 hours: US West Coast (PDT), race starts at 4:25am

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 31% of a typical Kona field.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Matt Hanson USA 08:14:16 08:33:01 00:54:42 04:28:39 02:45:55 37% +27% -36% (11) 37
2 40 Ivan Tutukin RUS 08:15:19 08:36:37 00:49:33 04:35:54 02:44:52 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (55)
3 18 Will Clarke GBR 08:15:41 08:38:01 00:50:57 04:29:52 02:49:53 12% +44% -44% (5) 62
4 8 Bas Diederen NED 08:16:03 08:30:12 00:49:18 04:22:15 02:59:29 39% +6% -55% (18) 29
5 2 Jordan Rapp USA 08:17:07 08:32:17 00:53:28 04:19:52 02:58:47 69% +6% -25% (21) 35
6 4 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:17:37 08:27:20 00:54:18 04:25:01 02:53:18 80% +1% -19% (31) 23
7 22 Joe Skipper GBR 08:18:02 08:31:46 00:55:32 04:21:21 02:56:09 42% +24% -34% (15) 33
8 3 Matthew Russell USA 08:18:51 08:33:40 00:56:41 04:22:48 02:54:22 45% +40% -15% (41) 39
9 7 Tyler Butterfield BMU 08:21:38 08:40:22 00:50:38 04:22:57 03:03:03 47% +15% -38% (13) 70
10 12 Callum Millward NZL 08:21:46 08:34:52 00:50:26 04:29:22 02:56:59 41% +0% -59% (6) 46
11 6 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:22:03 08:33:44 00:51:00 04:26:10 02:59:53 51% +17% -32% (12) 40
12 16 Paul Matthews AUS 08:22:23 08:34:55 00:48:52 04:28:14 03:00:16 45% +0% -55% (12) 47
13 13 Andrew Starykowicz USA 08:23:25 08:31:01 00:50:39 04:11:04 03:16:43 60% +0% -40% (7) (31)
14 11 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:23:30 08:39:30 00:52:14 04:32:20 02:53:57 54% +0% -46% (18) 66
15 14 David Plese SLO 08:25:38 08:37:25 00:54:15 04:27:29 02:58:55 83% +12% -6% (20) 57
16 19 Daniel Fontana ITA 08:26:02 08:36:45 00:51:56 04:31:10 02:57:56 55% +0% -45% (14) 55
(16) 42 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 08:26:31 08:37:12 00:55:07 04:24:45 03:01:39 57% +29% -13% (14) 55
17 21 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 08:26:32 08:55:37 00:54:01 04:30:33 02:56:57 39% +60% -1% (9) 118
18 10 Chris McDonald AUS 08:27:57 08:43:39 00:54:14 04:24:56 03:03:47 65% +15% -20% (44) 79
19 29 Marc Duelsen GER 08:32:26 08:44:04 00:54:34 04:31:32 03:01:20 82% +0% -18% (9) 80
20 28 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:33:20 08:54:04 00:55:23 04:35:15 02:57:42 36% +7% -57% (25) 111
21 9 Jozsef Major HUN 08:34:02 08:53:16 01:00:20 04:29:44 02:58:59 61% +24% -16% (32) 108
22 38 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:34:15 08:52:47 00:54:58 04:26:45 03:07:33 57% +10% -33% (16) 105
23 5 Paul Ambrose AUS 08:34:39 08:42:17 00:52:14 04:29:20 03:08:05 49% +3% -48% (21) 74
24 17 Matic Modic SLO 08:37:55 08:53:17 00:57:25 04:35:23 03:00:07 63% +16% -20% (10) 109
25 27 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 08:38:30 08:58:30 00:52:35 04:26:02 03:14:53 33% +34% -33% (12) 131
26 15 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:39:43 08:56:45 00:49:12 04:37:58 03:07:34 34% +23% -43% (19) 124
27 32 Philipp Koutny SUI 08:40:39 09:00:58 00:52:45 04:32:12 03:10:42 26% +0% -74% (4) (145)
28 30 Adam Gordon AUS 08:45:07 09:05:27 00:56:21 04:38:55 03:04:51 31% +39% -30% (6) 156
29 20 Leon Griffin AUS 08:54:52 09:23:53 00:52:39 04:30:19 03:26:53 10% +9% -81% (7) (203)
30 34 Tomas Mika CZE 08:56:13 09:14:55 00:56:38 04:49:33 03:05:03 67% +8% -25% (7) 180
31 26 Antony Costes FRA 09:00:16 09:34:04 00:50:16 04:29:16 03:35:44 16% +0% -84% (5) 234
32 41 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 09:08:59 09:26:43 00:57:21 04:47:11 03:19:26 60% +0% -40% (7) 218
33 33 Colin Laughery USA 09:10:41 09:23:03 01:00:50 04:46:57 03:17:54 100% +0% -0% (5) 200
34 24 Jarrod Shoemaker USA 09:12:50 09:36:35 00:48:08 05:08:49 03:10:52 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (238)
35 36 Patrick Schuster USA 09:15:51 09:43:21 01:04:54 04:40:38 03:25:18 64% +18% -17% (8) 249
36 37 Matt Shanks USA 09:25:06 09:43:42 01:01:17 04:57:18 03:21:31 67% +33% -0% (4) 250
37 31 Peter Kotland CZE 09:34:32 09:53:23 01:00:27 04:52:30 03:36:35 62% +23% -15% (23) 264
23 Robert Wade IRL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
25 James Capparell USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
35 Timothy Nichols USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
39 Frank Souza BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 20% of a typical Kona field.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 71 Jocelyn McCauley USA 09:08:57 09:35:14 00:58:11 04:56:20 03:09:25 21% +49% -30% (6) 37
2 51 Kelly Williamson USA 09:10:14 09:33:32 00:54:38 05:10:02 03:00:34 83% +9% -8% (13) 35
3 65 Malindi Elmore CAN 09:13:24 09:37:12 01:03:00 04:57:31 03:07:54 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (41)
4 52 Tine Deckers BEL 09:15:59 09:32:15 00:59:47 04:48:30 03:22:42 55% +6% -39% (20) 32
5 55 Lauren Brandon USA 09:16:24 09:40:19 00:50:17 04:55:16 03:25:51 59% +0% -41% (2) (44)
6 57 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 09:18:42 09:29:27 00:58:07 05:01:29 03:14:05 71% +18% -11% (7) 26
7 53 Haley Chura USA 09:20:14 09:39:36 00:50:49 05:02:58 03:21:27 64% +14% -22% (9) (44)
8 61 Maja Stage Nielsen DEN 09:24:14 09:48:29 01:00:29 05:00:38 03:18:07 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (57)
9 60 Celine Schaerer SUI 09:29:11 09:42:04 00:52:43 05:06:32 03:24:56 86% +0% -14% (7) 48
10 56 Amber Ferreira USA 09:31:19 09:57:43 00:57:45 05:03:06 03:25:29 44% +15% -41% (17) 73
11 63 Kirsty Jahn CAN 09:31:41 10:02:13 01:01:06 05:12:27 03:13:08 32% +0% -68% (2) (82)
12 74 Darbi Roberts USA 09:31:55 09:49:55 00:55:46 05:08:09 03:23:00 64% +0% -36% (7) 60
13 59 Jodie Robertson USA 09:33:53 09:52:38 01:06:02 05:10:18 03:12:34 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (68)
14 64 Nikki Bartlett GBR 09:34:09 09:55:09 01:02:08 05:01:00 03:26:02 100% +0% -0% (2) (71)
15 54 Alicia Kaye USA 09:38:27 09:51:35 00:54:07 05:04:12 03:35:08 100% +0% -0% (2) (66)
16 62 Jessica Jones Meyers USA 09:41:15 10:06:13 01:00:54 05:06:44 03:28:37 100% +0% -0% (5) (90)
17 72 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 09:41:21 10:02:05 01:00:10 05:15:31 03:20:40 73% +0% -27% (5) 81
18 70 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:41:48 10:03:03 01:01:46 05:05:19 03:29:42 35% +7% -58% (13) 83
19 58 Shiao-yu Li TWN 09:45:38 09:58:45 01:07:52 05:10:20 03:22:26 56% +17% -27% (13) 75
20 68 Caroline Livesey GBR 09:51:47 10:06:41 01:03:33 05:09:53 03:33:22 68% +0% -32% (7) 90
21 66 Annett Finger GER 09:54:58 10:10:59 01:03:19 05:12:43 03:33:56 92% +0% -8% (4) 99
22 73 Ashley Paulson USA 09:59:40 10:14:08 01:15:03 05:21:11 03:18:26 100% +0% -0% (3) 104
23 67 Erin Green USA 10:06:04 10:30:35 01:03:33 05:24:45 03:32:46 46% +54% -0% (2) (132)
24 69 Nicole Luse USA 10:19:22 10:45:29 01:11:49 05:32:52 03:29:41 48% +52% -0% (2) (144)
25 75 Francesca Sanjana GBR 10:37:39 11:05:04 01:08:34 05:27:06 03:56:59 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (149)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

A lot of dark red in the “Expected Time” column and the winning percentages below show that there isn’t a clear favorite in the field. 2015 winner Matt Hanson is my top pick, but he only has a slim margin over last year’s second place finisher Matthew Russell who has been consistently on the podium in his last IM-distance races but hasn’t won an IM since 2012. Add in 2012 winner Jordan Rapp (always a contender for a top finish), the two sub-8 Brits Joe Skipper (likely disappointed with his 12th place from IM South Africa) and Will Clarke and veterans Ronnie Schildknecht and Bas Diederen and you end up with a list of potential winners that’s extremely long and could easily be extended!

  • Matt Hanson: 17% (5-1)
  • Matthew Russell: 15% (6-1)
  • Joe Skipper: 14% (6-1)
  • Ronnie Schildknecht: 12% (8-1)
  • Bas Diederen: 10% (9-1)
  • Will Clarke: 9% (10-1)
  • Jordan Rapp: 8% (12-1)

Female Race Participants

The situation on the female side is also anything but clear. Jocelyn McCauley has won her last two Ironman races in Mallorca and New Zealand, but she has only had seven weeks to freshen up and rebuild. Tine Deckers has had a crash in one of her recent prep races and it’s unclear wether she’ll be able to race. Kelly Williamson (winner in 2014) didn’t have the 70.3 results this season to build much confidence going into Texas – quite in contrast to Haley Chura who won 70.3 Buenos Aires but has to recover from traveling all the way to China for 70.3 Liuzhou. (Since the original post, Haley has withdrawn.)  So maybe it’s time for a surprise winner? Michi Herlbauer was probably an unknown in the US before this year (even though she was second at IM Austria in sub-9 last year), maybe her second place at 70.3 Texas helped her gain some new fans. Malindi Elmore has only raced one IM before – finishing third in Arizona in sub-9. Finally, Lauren Brandon has shown with her second place at IM Cozumel that she is more than “only” a fast swimmer over the IM-distance.

  • Jocelyn McCauley: 41% (1-1)
  • Tine Deckers: 17% (5-1)
  • Kelly Williamson: 15% (6-1)
  • Haley Chura: 9% (10-1)
  • Michaela Herlbauer: 8% (11-1)
  • Malindi Elmore: 2% (40-1)
  • Lauren Brandon: 2% (49-1)

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