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Ironman Mont Tremblant 2018 (Aug 19th) – Seedings

IMMtTIM Mont Tremblant is the final race before the August cutoff for Kona Pro Qualifying. I have analyzed the situation for August Pro qualifying – who is currently in, who can still make it?

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2012 Romain Guillaume (FRA) 08:40:48 Jessie Donavan (USA) 09:30:46
2013 Luke Bell (AUS) 08:26:06 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 09:07:56
2014 TJ Tollakson (USA) 08:16:17 Sara Gross (CAN) 09:40:26
2015 Jordan Rapp (USA) 08:17:37 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 09:09:05
2016 Chris Leiferman (USA) 08:24:59 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 09:26:37
2017 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:21:29 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 09:19:08

Last Year’s TOP 3

Here’s the link to the analysis of last year’s results.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 00:53:23 04:26:56 02:56:10 08:21:29
2 Chris McDonald AUS 00:53:56 04:38:10 03:04:28 08:41:47
3 Jordan Monnink CAN 00:54:33 04:46:49 03:04:58 08:51:29

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Rachel Joyce GBR 00:56:19 05:07:51 03:08:27 09:19:08
2 Kim Schwabenbauer USA 01:05:43 05:03:39 03:05:59 09:21:22
3 Jennie Hansen USA 01:04:07 05:05:56 03:08:54 09:25:58

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:16:17 TJ Tollakson 2014-08-17
Swim overall 00:47:45 Brandon Marsh 2013-08-18
Bike overall 04:25:01 Jordan Rapp 2015-08-16
Run overall 02:45:09 Chris Leiferman 2016-08-21
Total female 09:07:56 Mary Beth Ellis 2013-08-18
Swim female 00:49:22 Haley Chura 2013-08-18
Bike female 04:53:21 Mary Beth Ellis 2015-08-16
Run female 03:00:37 Lisa Roberts 2015-08-16

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Mont Tremblant is 03:59.

Race Adjustments for IM Mont Tremblant

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2012 13:18 -00:34 06:55 03:38 13 13:18 -00:34 06:55 03:38
2013 06:44 00:00 04:13 02:16 36 10:01 -00:17 05:34 02:57
2014 04:40 -01:03 03:10 03:00 16 of 24 08:14 -00:32 04:46 02:58
2015 06:30 00:36 08:10 00:34 35 of 41 07:48 -00:15 05:37 02:22
2016 -11:04 -07:07 05:23 -03:00 24 of 30 04:02 -01:38 05:34 01:18
2017 03:45 -01:40 09:31 00:05 27 of 36 03:59 -01:38 06:13 01:06

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Mont Tremblant is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 60.000 US$, paying 8 deep.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 8% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 1 Lionel Sanders CAN 08:06:56 08:12:13 00:54:40 04:18:12 05:17:52 02:49:04 57% +43% -0% (8) 5
2 3 Joe Gambles AUS 08:20:08 08:24:43 00:50:44 04:32:49 05:28:33 02:51:35 42% +20% -38% (13) 23
3 5 Jeff Symonds CAN 08:24:44 08:28:35 00:51:35 04:39:57 05:36:33 02:48:11 71% +0% -29% (12) 39
4 4 Matthew Russell USA 08:24:54 08:27:58 00:56:17 04:30:45 05:32:02 02:52:52 53% +24% -23% (46) 34
5 6 Patrick Mckeon USA 08:29:03 08:36:21 00:56:09 04:37:40 05:38:50 02:50:13 100% +0% -0% (3) 68
6 7 Sam Long USA 08:39:02 08:49:59 00:57:06 04:33:11 05:35:16 03:03:46 66% +20% -14% (7) 106
7 9 Alan Carrillo Avila MEX 08:46:45 09:03:18 00:53:39 04:40:24 05:39:03 03:07:42 38% +62% -0% (2) (161)
8 10 Jesse Vondracek USA 08:55:41 09:07:08 00:54:49 04:46:25 05:46:15 03:09:26 82% +17% -1% (22) 169
9 23 Hannes Cool BEL 08:57:35 09:12:32 00:54:26 04:48:20 05:47:46 03:09:49 48% +26% -26% (8) 188
10 20 Jason Pohl CAN 08:58:33 09:23:11 01:00:31 04:51:41 05:57:12 03:01:21 40% +0% -60% (2) (219)
11 22 Colin Laughery USA 09:04:22 09:21:47 00:58:06 04:50:17 05:53:23 03:10:59 59% +22% -19% (10) 213
12 28 Wouter Monchy BEL 09:05:03 09:22:11 00:53:05 04:55:58 05:54:03 03:11:00 43% +17% -40% (7) 215
13 11 James Lubinski USA 09:07:29 09:19:20 01:05:15 04:51:05 06:01:19 03:06:10 66% +22% -12% (23) 200
14 16 Daniel Clarke CAN 09:11:44 09:17:06 00:59:33 04:44:48 05:49:21 03:22:23 32% +36% -33% (3) 198
15 12 Scott Bradley USA 09:19:54 09:29:45 01:04:21 04:48:33 05:57:53 03:22:01 100% +0% -0% (5) (233)
16 21 Matthew Shanks USA 09:24:11 09:37:00 01:01:12 05:04:43 06:10:55 03:13:16 56% +11% -33% (8) 247
17 24 Peter Kotland CZE 09:38:18 09:50:47 01:01:50 05:01:39 06:08:29 03:29:49 83% +10% -6% (28) 262
18 25 Dusty Spiller CAN 09:44:41 10:03:52 01:01:57 05:18:14 06:25:11 03:19:30 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (272)
19 26 Sacha Cavelier CAN 10:27:12 10:35:35 00:59:29 05:08:37 06:13:06 04:14:06 63% +37% -0% (3) 285
8 Cody Beals CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
14 Andrew Yoder USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
15 Antoine Jolicoeur Desroches CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
17 Alex Vanderlinden CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
18 David Lacombe CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
27 Jeremiah Mitchell USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 11% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 35 Meredith Kessler USA 09:12:43 09:17:15 00:52:17 05:00:32 05:57:48 03:14:55 75% +5% -20% (28) 9
2 37 Liz Blatchford AUS 09:12:56 09:18:48 00:53:38 05:04:07 06:02:44 03:10:12 96% +4% -0% (10) 16
3 36 Jodie Robertson USA 09:19:56 09:25:53 01:02:22 04:58:51 06:06:13 03:13:43 54% +13% -33% (6) 28
4 40 Laurel Wassner USA 09:29:38 09:50:28 00:56:42 05:12:54 06:14:36 03:15:02 64% +9% -28% (13) 71
5 46 Melanie McQuaid CAN 09:30:41 09:55:42 00:59:26 05:04:15 06:08:41 03:22:00 26% +0% -74% (4) (80)
6 39 Lauren Brandon USA 09:30:47 09:36:27 00:49:31 05:04:24 05:58:55 03:31:52 58% +0% -42% (7) 41
7 38 Angela Naeth * CAN 09:37:59 09:52:32 01:01:25 04:57:31 06:03:56 03:34:03 38% +11% -51% (8) 73
8 41 Jessie Donavan USA 09:39:28 09:48:35 01:08:00 05:02:27 06:15:27 03:24:01 74% +2% -24% (18) 66
9 42 Uli Bromme USA 09:42:17 09:53:44 01:05:02 05:10:32 06:20:34 03:21:43 37% +13% -50% (16) (77)
10 45 Caroline St-Pierre CAN 09:59:08 10:10:21 00:59:06 05:33:51 06:37:57 03:21:11 88% +0% -12% (6) 103
11 43 Robyn Hardage CAN 10:02:18 10:11:49 01:04:44 05:24:28 06:34:13 03:28:05 100% +0% -0% (4) 109
12 49 Steph Corker CAN 10:09:33 10:28:59 00:59:10 05:33:55 06:38:05 03:31:28 61% +16% -22% (6) 132
13 47 Caroline Martineau CAN 10:29:44 10:57:25 01:07:23 05:29:10 06:41:33 03:48:11 56% +9% -34% (11) 149
14 52 Liz Baugher USA 10:39:20 10:53:38 01:01:12 05:41:15 06:47:27 03:51:53 65% +0% -35% (3) (147)
15 50 Amy Vantassel USA 10:39:32 10:48:03 01:08:50 05:53:37 07:07:26 03:32:06 67% +0% -33% (5) 145
16 51 Katy Cargiulo USA 10:41:47 10:57:19 01:08:36 05:51:42 07:05:18 03:36:29 100% +0% -0% (6) 148
44 Meredith Hill AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
48 Sonia Bracegirdle NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
53 Valerie Belanger CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (2) (n/a)
54 Cindy Dubois CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Lionel Sanders: 57% (1-1)
  • Joe Gambles: 19% (4-1)
  • Matthew Russell: 10% (9-1)
  • Jeff Symonds: 9% (10-1)
  • Patrick Mckeon: 4% (27-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Liz Blatchford: 61% (1-1)
  • Meredith Kessler: 24% (3-1)
  • Jodie Robertson: 9% (11-1)
  • Laurel Wassner: 3% (36-1)
  • Angela Naeth: 2% (57-1)

Ironman Copenhagen 2018 (Aug 19th) – Seedings

IMCPHIM Copenhagen is one of the final races before the August cutoff for Kona Pro Qualifying. I have analyzed the situation for August Pro qualifying – who is currently in, who can still make it?

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2010 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:07:39 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 08:54:36
2011 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:11:15 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 08:52:42
2012 Aaron Farlow (AUS) 08:20:09 Camilla Pedersen (DEN) 09:12:27
2013 Jens Petersen-Bach (DEN) 08:12:41 Eva Wutti (AUT) 08:37:36
2014 Henrik Hyldelund (DEN) 08:03:39 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 08:53:33
2015 Guilherme Manocchio (BRA) 08:14:56 Michelle Vesterby (DEN) 08:59:49
2016 Patrik Nilsson (SWE) 07:49:18
2017 Michelle Vesterby (DEN) 09:00:19

Last TOP 3

Here are the links to the full result analysis from 2017 (WPRO) and from 2016 which was the last men’s Pro race.

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:53:02 04:48:02 03:15:05 09:00:19
2 Corinne Abraham GBR 01:00:21 04:53:20 03:09:51 09:08:06
3 Sofie Goos BEL 01:00:15 05:00:41 03:11:14 09:17:17

Male Race Results 2016

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Patrik Nilsson SWE 00:47:53 04:14:15 02:43:14 07:49:18
2 Will Clarke GBR 00:47:46 04:24:33 02:43:16 07:59:31
3 Fabio Carvalho BRA 00:47:51 04:14:50 02:59:35 08:07:10

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:49:18 Patrik Nilsson 2016-08-21
Swim overall 00:45:22 Stephen Bayliss 2011-08-01
Bike overall 04:13:57 Andreas Raelert 2016-08-21
Run overall 02:38:58 Mads Vittrup 2011-08-01
Total female 08:37:36 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18
Swim female 00:48:29 Ann Lønnberg 2011-08-01
Bike female 04:39:58 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18
Run female 03:00:51 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Copenhagen is 20:11.

Race Adjustments for IM Copenhagen

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2010 32:51 01:36 09:50 10:46 24 32:51 01:36 09:50 10:46
2011 27:13 03:10 12:54 06:04 28 30:02 02:23 11:22 08:25
2012 17:57 02:36 12:46 03:30 19 26:00 02:27 11:50 06:47
2013 27:32 01:24 17:07 05:30 30 26:23 02:12 13:09 06:28
2014 15:53 01:54 10:06 01:43 27 of 35 24:17 02:08 12:32 05:31
2015 14:04 01:27 15:23 01:47 26 of 30 22:35 02:01 13:01 04:53
2016 10:41 01:26 20:10 -00:48 21 of 28 20:53 01:56 14:02 04:05
2017 15:20 -00:30 15:59 04:48 7 of 8 20:11 01:38 14:17 04:10

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Copenhagen is an MPRO-only, P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 40.000 US$, paying 10 deep.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 20% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 22 Tim Don GBR 07:54:16 08:18:42 00:46:12 04:14:21 05:05:32 02:48:44 43% +33% -24% (5) (11)
2 2 Boris Stein GER 08:02:54 08:20:56 00:51:31 04:16:20 05:12:51 02:50:03 80% +20% -0% (9) 16
3 1 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 08:03:45 08:25:02 00:46:45 04:24:47 05:16:32 02:47:13 58% +7% -35% (16) 24
4 53 Jesper Svensson SWE 08:04:12 08:35:40 00:45:23 04:20:37 05:11:00 02:53:12 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (66)
5 57 Cameron Wurf AUS 08:06:54 08:26:29 00:49:36 04:09:19 05:03:56 03:02:58 72% +22% -6% (14) 29
6 23 Marc Duelsen GER 08:10:32 08:30:54 00:49:24 04:24:24 05:18:47 02:51:45 93% +0% -7% (13) 49
7 51 Stefan Schmid GER 08:10:55 08:30:33 00:50:47 04:25:31 05:21:18 02:49:37 62% +17% -21% (17) 46
8 3 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:10:58 08:28:47 00:49:25 04:26:51 05:21:17 02:49:41 59% +6% -35% (23) 41
9 7 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:13:31 08:35:33 00:49:01 04:31:38 05:25:40 02:47:51 56% +10% -34% (22) 64
10 11 Johann Ackermann GER 08:13:58 08:43:43 00:46:50 04:20:33 05:12:24 03:01:34 64% +0% -36% (12) 86
11 32 Kristian Hoegenhaug DEN 08:14:14 08:42:30 00:53:21 04:19:35 05:17:55 02:56:19 100% +0% -0% (2) (83)
12 5 Giulio Molinari ITA 08:15:08 08:32:04 00:47:08 04:23:25 05:15:33 02:59:35 100% +0% -0% (5) 57
13 34 Philipp Koutny SUI 08:16:07 08:43:14 00:49:00 04:24:23 05:18:22 02:57:45 47% +14% -40% (11) 85
14 9 Thiago Vinhal BRA 08:17:36 08:38:04 00:47:57 04:33:22 05:26:20 02:51:16 65% +30% -4% (16) 76
15 26 Markus Fachbach GER 08:18:15 08:46:33 00:48:32 04:27:17 05:20:49 02:57:26 47% +0% -53% (23) 92
16 55 Andrej Vistica CRO 08:18:39 08:37:32 00:53:05 04:30:02 05:28:08 02:50:31 93% +0% -7% (17) 75
17 12 Michael Patrick Alonso Mckernan ESP 08:21:09 08:54:35 00:52:53 04:21:15 05:19:09 03:02:00 -0% +42% -58% (3) (130)
18 41 Sebastian Neef GER 08:21:26 09:01:32 00:50:23 04:21:50 05:17:14 03:04:12 15% +24% -61% (4) (156)
19 6 Esben Hovgaard DEN 08:21:41 08:54:45 00:51:09 04:29:26 05:25:35 02:56:06 44% +22% -35% (13) 131
20 27 Chris Fischer DEN 08:22:41 08:46:02 00:52:54 04:30:31 05:28:26 02:54:15 69% +4% -26% (10) 90
21 13 Victor Arroyo Bugallo ESP 08:23:15 08:55:58 00:54:35 04:34:19 05:33:54 02:49:21 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (137)
22 8 Daniil Sapunov UKR 08:24:57 08:48:36 00:47:11 04:35:46 05:27:57 02:57:00 76% +5% -18% (12) 101
23 30 Pedro Gomes POR 08:27:19 08:50:32 00:50:42 04:37:25 05:33:06 02:54:13 50% +0% -50% (33) 110
24 48 Michael Ruenz GER 08:27:29 08:55:59 00:54:46 04:36:10 05:35:56 02:51:33 61% +0% -39% (14) 137
25 43 Andreas Niedrig GER 08:30:48 09:15:35 00:46:30 04:23:27 05:14:57 03:15:51 28% +19% -53% (15) (196)
26 35 Markus Liebelt GER 08:34:19 09:20:09 00:53:24 04:28:26 05:26:50 03:07:29 23% +0% -77% (3) (206)
27 44 Sebastian Norberg SWE 08:35:00 09:05:46 00:54:07 04:33:33 05:32:40 03:02:20 35% +39% -26% (3) (167)
28 4 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:35:34 09:01:29 00:51:51 04:34:30 05:31:22 03:04:12 65% +0% -35% (22) 155
29 38 Philipp Mock GER 08:37:20 09:08:30 00:56:55 04:26:03 05:27:58 03:09:22 100% +0% -0% (2) (176)
30 29 Jacob Frandsen DEN 08:41:31 09:06:52 00:54:47 04:31:11 05:30:58 03:10:33 85% +0% -15% (5) (168)
31 10 Jonas Oerarbaeck SWE 08:44:36 09:24:17 00:58:40 04:41:30 05:45:10 02:59:26 39% +0% -61% (2) (225)
32 50 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:45:11 09:19:47 00:58:28 04:37:30 05:40:58 03:04:13 78% +6% -16% (74) 202
33 40 Urs Mueller SUI 08:45:17 09:14:19 00:51:14 04:35:53 05:32:07 03:13:10 51% +13% -36% (9) 192
34 54 Sanne Swolfs BEL 08:46:13 09:20:25 unrated unrated unrated unrated 52% +0% -48% (2) (207)
35 16 Morten Banke DEN 08:46:32 09:20:46 00:57:10 04:42:49 05:44:59 03:01:33 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (210)
36 39 Vincent Morizot FRA 08:52:21 09:26:56 00:52:00 04:33:38 05:30:38 03:21:43 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (229)
37 45 Stefan Overmars NED 08:56:02 09:25:38 00:53:12 04:36:58 05:35:10 03:20:52 71% +0% -29% (4) (226)
38 36 Michael Louys BEL 08:57:43 09:42:37 01:00:44 04:42:07 05:47:51 03:09:52 33% +5% -62% (14) (254)
39 28 Rasmus Fitzner DEN 08:57:54 09:32:52 00:53:54 04:49:25 05:48:18 03:09:36 40% +0% -60% (3) (239)
40 20 Bekim Christensen DEN 08:58:44 09:31:46 01:00:02 04:37:41 05:42:42 03:16:02 20% +19% -61% (7) 235
41 56 Frederik Waer BEL 09:00:06 09:35:12 01:05:54 04:47:05 05:58:00 03:02:06 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (247)
42 25 Olivier Esser BEL 09:03:35 09:27:53 00:52:45 04:48:53 05:46:38 03:16:57 75% +0% -25% (4) 231
43 19 Vinicius Canhedo BRA 09:03:57 09:50:57 00:49:43 04:45:53 05:40:36 03:23:21 24% +0% -76% (4) (264)
44 15 Mads Bang Jensen DEN 09:04:48 09:46:33 00:54:07 04:49:40 05:48:48 03:16:00 45% +55% -0% (2) (260)
45 37 Dennis Matzen DEN 09:08:33 09:44:12 00:54:32 04:53:16 05:52:48 03:15:45 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (258)
46 18 Anthony Cadario FRA 09:11:31 09:47:21 00:54:47 04:57:37 05:57:24 03:14:07 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (260)
47 24 Patrik Ericsson SWE 09:14:40 09:50:42 00:48:19 04:32:09 05:25:28 03:49:12 62% +0% -38% (2) (263)
48 14 Dirk Baelus BEL 09:18:09 09:43:04 00:55:49 04:51:34 05:52:24 03:25:45 71% +0% -29% (5) 255
49 47 Lukas Polan CZE 09:21:23 09:53:51 01:00:02 04:59:51 06:04:53 03:16:30 50% +13% -36% (17) 265
50 33 Aleksander Kochetkov LTU 10:30:57 11:11:58 01:07:00 05:26:56 06:38:56 03:52:01 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (290)
42 Marek Nemcik SVK 10:55:50 unrated 01:10:39 05:21:55 06:37:34 04:18:16 35% +20% -45% (47) n/a
17 Mihai Baractaru ROM n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
31 Kristian Hindkjaer DEN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
49 Imanol Sagarzazu ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
52 Thomas Hansen DEN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

There are quite a few athletes who have already secured their Kona slots and are unlikely to race (e.g. Philipp Koutny, Marc Duelsen, Thiago Vinhal). Cameron Wurf and Jens Petersen-Bach are also safe but it’s unclear if they want to race another Ironman before Kona.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Clemente Alonso McKernan: 36% (2-1)
  • Tim Don: 33% (2-1)
  • Boris Stein: 12% (7-1)
  • Cameron Wurf: 5% (21-1)
  • Marc Duelsen: 4% (25-1)
  • Stefan Schmid: 3% (33-1)
  • Jens Petersen-Bach: 3% (38-1)
  • Jesper Svensson: 2% (39-1)

Ironman Netherlands 2018 (Maastricht) – Analyzing Results

IMMaastrichtLogoThe analysis for IM Maastricht is supported by Ruud de Haan and his Dutch website Trikipedia.nl.

Update May 29th, 2019: Eight months(!) after the race, a Dutch judge has reversed the DQs and appointed Els Visser as the winner of IM Maastricht. There is no information about Sonia Bracegirdle or the impact on the prize money.

Update Sept 22nd: Seven weeks after the race there is news that the race results have been changed (Instagram post by Angela Naeth). I have not seen anything official yet, but possibly race winner Els Visser and third place finisher Sonia Bracegirdle have been DQ’d for cutting the course in the swim. This would make Yvonne Van Vlerken the winner of the race and also subtly change the points allocation so that Angela has now received a late Kona slot. I will update as more facts become known. Dutch Triathlon website 3athlon.nl has some statements from NTB, the Dutch national governing body, confirming the DQs (Dutch language).

Course Conditions

This year’s IM Maastricht was quite slow, it started with a very slow swim (adjustment of -3:14), a relatively quick bike and a slow run. Almost every Pro athlete had at least one “bad” leg. Els Visser set a new bike course record, she was able to almost break five hours and improved on Brooke Brown’s 2017 time by almost 14 minutes.

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Els Visser NED 01:00:25 05:00:54 03:25:28 09:31:06 -44:16 US$ 12,000 2000
2 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 01:02:11 05:07:05 03:21:42 09:34:55 12:09 US$ 6,000 1600
3 Sonia Bracegirdle NZL 01:00:23 05:13:40 03:19:12 09:38:29 n/a US$ 4,000 1280
4 Katja Konschak GER 00:56:04 05:27:23 03:10:43 09:39:39 -13:30 US$ 2,750 960
5 Angela Naeth CAN 01:05:41 05:02:26 03:27:28 09:41:00 -20:37 US$ 2,000 720
6 Haley Chura USA 00:52:05 05:15:34 04:13:58 10:26:55 43:33 US$ 1,500 540
7 Pleuni Hooijman NED 01:11:53 05:03:42 04:22:34 10:42:48 24:11 US$ 1,000 405
Camilla Lindholm Borg SWE 01:26:26 05:18:23 DNF

Kona Qualifying

The following athletes improved their chances for an August Kona slot:

  • Yvonne Van Vlerken (now 5.100 points) is safe for a slot, but she has already indicated that she is going to decline her slot
  • Katja Konschak (now 4.110) is in the bubble. But not counting Yvonne she is the athlete with the most points looking for an August slot, and she is quite likely to receive a slot.

Haley Chura hasn’t been able to improve her total (still 3.875), just as Camilla Lindholm after her DNF (still 3.920). Both are still within the Top 7, but in the last races in Sweden and Mont Tremblant that are likely to overtake them.

Els Visser (3.130) and Angela Naeth (3.425) have improved their total but are still short of getting into the Top 7.

Ironman Tallinn 2018 – Analyzing Results

IMTallinn

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Philipp Koutny SUI 00:49:41 04:19:50 02:47:44 08:01:18 -19:22 US$ 12,000 2000
2 Marc Duelsen GER 00:52:16 04:17:25 02:52:51 08:06:16 -04:53 US$ 6,000 1600
3 Marko Albert EST 00:46:12 04:19:02 02:58:18 08:07:11 -01:25 US$ 4,000 1280
4 Gergo Badar HUN 00:52:18 04:26:33 02:46:44 08:10:02 n/a US$ 2,750 960
5 Markus Thomschke GER 00:49:48 04:19:27 02:56:47 08:10:29 -09:52 US$ 2,000 720
6 Denis Chevrot FRA 00:49:45 04:19:33 02:59:43 08:13:11 02:35 US$ 1,500 540
7 Gregor Buchholz GER 00:49:46 04:29:06 02:49:03 08:13:33 n/a US$ 1,000 405
8 Per Van Vlerken GER 00:49:50 04:20:04 03:06:00 08:19:44 -00:45 US$ 750 305
9 Daniil Sapunov UKR 00:49:47 04:30:44 02:56:37 08:21:48 -01:43 230
10 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 00:52:46 04:26:20 03:07:53 08:32:05 -03:47 170
11 Seppe Odeyn BEL 01:04:36 04:29:01 02:55:46 08:34:21 -00:29 120
12 Michael Van Cleven BEL 00:51:53 04:27:09 03:11:09 08:34:47 16:04 85
13 Ivo Suur EST 00:58:54 04:31:55 03:03:44 08:40:25 n/a 60
14 Sanne Swolfs BEL 00:52:46 04:26:07 03:18:13 08:41:48 n/a 40
15 Grigorii Navrotskii RUS 00:52:59 04:43:12 03:05:01 08:45:54 n/a 30
16 Jarno Piik FIN 01:14:02 04:27:28 02:58:08 08:46:12 n/a 20
17 Philipp Reiner AUT 00:55:41 04:38:34 03:08:14 08:48:55 n/a 15
18 Marcus Hultgren SWE 00:56:45 04:34:44 03:13:14 08:49:58 -16:17 10
19 Ilkka Utriainen FIN 00:55:45 04:41:05 03:15:37 08:57:34 -21:56 8
20 Sebastian Guhr GER 01:04:46 04:28:23 03:19:17 08:58:13 -24:58 5
21 Hannes Bonami BEL 01:04:31 04:43:22 03:09:23 09:02:20 n/a 3
22 Hubert Hammerl AUT 00:52:53 04:43:08 03:21:14 09:03:58 05:22 3
23 Josef Svoboda CZE 01:15:05 05:11:25 04:10:13 10:46:58 -22:25 3
Michael Ruenz GER 00:52:47 04:26:00 DNF
Joona Tuikka FIN 00:55:40 04:30:44 DNF
Valentin Zasypkin RUS 01:07:55 DNF

Kona Qualifying

The following athletes are now safe for an August slot:

  • Philipp Koutny (now at 4.925)
  • Marc Duelsen (now at 4.250)

Denis Chevrot has received and accepted a July slot.

Ironman Sweden 2018 (Aug 18th) – Seedings

IMSweden_LogoIM Sweden is one of the final races before the August cutoff for Kona Pro Qualifying. I have analyzed the situation for August Pro qualifying – who is currently in, who can still make it?

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2012 Jan Raphael (GER) 08:04:01 Asa Lundstroem (SWE) 09:13:27
2013 Pedro Gomes (POR) 08:19:30 Jodie Cunnama (GBR) 08:54:01
2014 Horst Reichel (GER) 08:13:01 Leanda Cave (GBR) 08:56:50
2015 Patrik Nilsson (SWE) 08:08:05 Astrid Stienen (GER) 09:12:27
2016 Kristin Moeller (GER) 09:14:39
2017 Clemente Alonso McKernan (ESP) 08:07:48

Last Year’s TOP 3

IM Sweden is one of the single-gender European races (the counterpart is IM Copenhagen). Here are the links to the full analysis for the 2017 Male race and the 2016 Female race.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 00:47:29 04:24:55 02:50:23 08:07:48
2 Cameron Wurf AUS 00:50:20 04:14:27 03:00:38 08:08:58
3 Esben Hovgaard DEN 00:51:25 04:32:37 02:58:03 08:25:18

Female Race Results (2016)

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Kristin Moeller GER 01:02:48 05:12:09 02:55:09 09:14:39
2 Lucie Reed CZE 00:54:03 05:11:35 03:11:11 09:21:31
3 Carolin Lehrieder GER 00:57:47 05:01:25 03:22:15 09:24:30

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:04:01 Jan Raphael 2012-08-18
Swim overall 00:47:29 Clemente Alonso McKernan 2017-08-19
Bike overall 04:14:27 Cameron Wurf 2017-08-19
Run overall 02:44:18 Viktor Zyemtsev 2014-08-16
Total female 08:54:01 Jodie Cunnama 2013-08-17
Swim female 00:48:30 Jodie Cunnama 2013-08-17
Bike female 04:48:42 Helene Malmkvist 2012-08-18
Run female 02:55:09 Kristin Moeller 2016-08-20

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Sweden is 17:27.

Race Adjustments for IM Sweden

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2012 32:30 00:42 23:32 09:15 29 32:30 00:42 23:32 09:15
2013 15:19 00:21 08:58 07:16 30 23:55 00:31 16:15 08:16
2014 15:09 -00:15 06:26 05:07 24 of 27 21:00 00:16 12:59 07:13
2015 03:15 -02:45 03:10 02:45 19 of 21 16:34 -00:29 10:32 06:06
2016 25:15 -00:40 14:00 06:23 5 18:18 -00:31 11:13 06:09
2017 13:11 01:51 13:26 01:12 16 of 21 17:27 -00:08 11:35 05:20

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Sweden is a P-2000, WPRO-only race. It has a total prize purse of 40.000 US$, paying 10 deep.

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 23% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 5 Corinne Abraham GBR 08:58:00 09:17:44 01:00:22 04:53:03 05:58:26 02:59:34 77% +23% -0% (15) 12
2 17 Sara Svensk SWE 09:09:04 09:39:05 00:57:58 04:56:34 05:59:32 03:09:32 35% +23% -43% (5) 49
3 9 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 09:09:22 09:27:33 00:56:24 05:01:34 06:02:57 03:06:25 69% +9% -22% (10) 31
4 3 Kimberley Morrison GBR 09:09:52 09:38:48 00:54:49 04:47:22 05:47:10 03:22:42 100% +0% -0% (2) (48)
5 12 Maja Stage Nielsen DEN 09:10:03 09:28:02 00:58:46 04:59:36 06:03:22 03:06:41 65% +0% -35% (4) 32
6 2 Asa Lundstroem SWE 09:10:08 09:28:16 01:01:17 04:55:45 06:02:02 03:08:06 99% +1% -0% (19) 33
7 20 Tine Deckers BEL 09:10:13 09:25:41 00:58:13 04:53:39 05:56:52 03:13:21 79% +3% -18% (24) 26
8 18 Sonja Tajsich GER 09:11:16 09:29:09 01:02:37 05:00:04 06:07:42 03:03:34 88% +2% -10% (25) 34
9 1 Sofie Goos BEL 09:17:07 09:39:30 00:58:32 05:02:23 06:05:55 03:11:12 61% +9% -29% (27) 50
10 4 Camilla Lindholm Borg SWE 09:18:53 09:50:17 01:09:21 04:56:54 06:11:16 03:07:37 80% +8% -12% (20) 70
11 7 Celine Schaerer SUI 09:19:44 09:37:12 00:51:25 05:08:18 06:04:43 03:15:01 80% +0% -20% (11) 43
12 21 Angela Naeth * CAN 09:23:28 09:52:32 00:59:31 04:50:40 05:55:10 03:28:18 38% +11% -51% (8) 73
13 6 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:25:18 09:45:55 00:53:21 04:56:03 05:54:23 03:30:55 55% +10% -34% (29) 58
14 15 Simona Krivankova CZE 09:30:02 09:56:04 01:05:52 05:06:37 06:17:28 03:12:34 89% +11% -0% (6) 81
15 16 Pamela Tastets CHI 09:30:06 09:53:22 00:57:33 05:08:19 06:10:52 03:19:14 100% +0% -0% (4) 75
16 13 Federica De Nicola ITA 09:34:46 10:08:54 01:00:15 05:01:24 06:06:39 03:28:07 52% +0% -48% (2) (100)
17 11 Renee Kiley AUS 09:51:28 10:26:36 01:01:35 05:12:01 06:18:36 03:32:52 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (129)
18 10 Emma Graaf SWE 09:51:38 10:33:13 00:59:31 05:17:02 06:21:33 03:30:05 33% +9% -57% (7) (136)
8 Annie Thoren SWE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
14 Melanie Baumann SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Winning Odds

A few of the athletes are unlikely to start, for example Tine Deckers and Maja Stage Nielsen have already secured their Kona slots in July.

Female Race Participants

  • Corinne Abraham: 50% (1-1)
  • Asa Lundstroem: 12% (7-1)
  • Michaela Herlbauer: 9% (10-1)
  • Sara Svensk: 6% (16-1)
  • Camilla Lindholm Borg: 5% (21-1)
  • Maja Stage Nielsen: 4% (21-1)
  • Tine Deckers: 4% (23-1)
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