Skip to content

Ironman Texas 2017 – Analyzing Results

IM Texas was the second of the Regional Championships in 2017, one of five elevated races across the globe with a big prize purse, lots of points for Kona qualifying and automatic qualifier slots for the male and female winners.

I’ll start with a discussion of the race coverage (or rather, the lack of are coverage) – to me Texas was the next step in a disturbing trend that needs to be reversed as soon as possible. If you’re mainly interested in the race results, feel free to skip the next section!

(Lack of) Race Coverage

Ironman received a lot of criticism for their coverage of the 2014 70.3 Championships in Mont Tremblant – a couple of static camera positions without any commentary. At the start of the 2015 racing season Ironman accepted the feedback (“our lack of a hosted live show was a mistake”, Ironman CEO Andrew Messick) and announced plans to highlight the Regional Championships with GPS tracking for professional athletes and an online show with live pictures from moving cameras and commentary hosted by Greg Welch and Michael Lovato. The stated goal was  to “put a brighter spotlight on professional Ironman racing” and to “draw more attention and improve engagement” (again Andrew Messick). The first season was quite promising, and for Kona 2015 an improved athlete tracker that included a GPS leaderboard was in place.

However, the 2016 season was a step backward – the live shows continued but GPS tracking was mostly abandoned (at least for the public). The old Athlete Tracker was back in use – very often stopping to update at the worst moments. Things continued at the lowered level for the first of the 2017 Regional Championships in South Africa: No GPS but at least a live stream provided by a South African TV station with some Ironman commentary.

IM Texas was another major step backwards: just a few static cameras without any commentary, reminiscent of the Mont Tremblant coverage mentioned above. Just as for Mont Tremblant there was no prior communication about the lack of coverage and any reasoning behind it. Lots of fans of Ironman racing only discovered the lack of a live show when they tuned in to follow the race – resulting in a lot of frustrated tweets by friends of the sport.

How will Ironman react to the criticism this time around? Without any communication about dropping the coverage for the North American championships, one can only speculate about their reasoning. The last few years Ironman struggled to define their relationship with the Professionals – races loosing and then regaining Pro fields, their unwillingness to engage in the “50 Women For Kona” discussion even though it had broad support among male and female Pros, or more and more races but with thinner prize purses are just a few examples. However, our sport can only be the best when the goals of Pros and the Ironman brand are as much aligned as possible. I urge the leaders of Ironman to embrace Pro athletes as the best ambassadors of their brand. Renewing their efforts to improve the coverage of races would be an important step.

Race Conditions

Before the race there was a lot of discussion about the impact of this year’s changes for IM Texas: A race date that was a few weeks earlier (resulting in less hot conditions) and a new, flat bike course. While the old men’s course record was at 8:07 (Matt Hanson from 2015), there was speculation that a sub-8 would be needed to win the race. Race day provided temperatures well suited for racing hard (sunny but relatively cool for Texas in April), but apparently there was quite a strong wind that affected the bike leg on the exposed “Hardy Toll Road”. Based on the numbers, the conditions were about 10 minutes quicker than in 2015.

Race day started with a fantastic swim by Lauren Brandon, posting the fastest swim time overall and a new female swim bike course record: Her 48:52 was nearly three minutes quicker than the previous record by Kelly Williamson from 2014. The bike leg was dominated by Andy Starykowicz, his time of 4:01:14 was a new bike course record by almost nine minutes (old record by Joe Skipper from 2015) and a new “fastest IM bike leg ever.” The run was quick as well, but the old course records (2:41 by Matt Hanson and 2:51 by Cait Snow) are still standing.

The overall times provided some new records: Matt Hanson improved his own course record by 15 minutes (most of the improvement coming from a fast bike leg where he quickly closed the gap after the swim), also posting his first sub-8 and a new fastest IM finish for a US athlete. In addition five athletes going sub-8 is also something never seen before in a full Ironman.

Male Race Results

New Pro James Capparell posted the fastest swim time just ahead of Harry Wiltshire, both were closely followed by a larger group. Once on the bike Andy Starykowicz took control of the race, eventually building a lead of more than ten minutes to the second group. It was an amazing performance by Starky as he was run over by a truck in August and severely injured, putting his return to racing in doubt for quite some time. No one else came even within ten minutes of his bike time! By T2 Starky’s lead was about 14 minutes to the other contenders, the closest of the pre-race favorites were Tyler Butterfield and Matt Hanson, with a larger group about 18 minutes back. Starky was able to hold on to his lead until about the half marathon mark, eventually running just under four hours (still beating his bike time!) and finishing in 19th place. It was a great return to Ironman racing for him, and one that will give him extra motivation to continue on his path of recovery and hopefully a return to his best racing form.

When it became apparent that Starky wasn’t in his best running shape, it was clear that Matt Hanson was in the driver’s seat for the title. In the end he posted the second fastest marathon of the day and won by almost four minutes. Ronnie Schildknecht ran just a minute slower than Matt, he was seven off the bike and able to pass almost everyone ahead of him. Tyler Butterfield took the last spot on the podium, his 2:49 was the second fastest marathon he has ever run. Similar to his teammate Ronnie, Will Clarke ran through the field, he postest that fastest marathon of the day, allowing him to advance from 12th after T2 to fourth on the finish line, closely followed by Kirill Kotshegarov in fifth.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Matt Hanson USA 00:51:46 04:13:53 02:42:07 07:52:44 -24:13 US$ 30,000 4000
2 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:53:34 04:14:40 02:43:28 07:56:21 -14:48 US$ 15,000 3400
3 Tyler Butterfield BMU 00:49:08 04:15:20 02:49:00 07:58:29 -20:29 US$ 8,000 2890
4 Will Clarke GBR 00:49:16 04:22:30 02:42:01 07:59:02 -22:43 US$ 6,500 2455
5 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 00:54:56 04:11:16 02:48:00 07:59:32 -21:22 US$ 5,000 2090
6 Matthew Russell USA 00:54:49 04:13:43 02:47:57 08:01:35 -15:43 US$ 3,500 1670
7 Leon Griffin AUS 00:49:18 04:19:25 02:49:16 08:04:04 -46:47 US$ 2,500 1335
8 David Plese SLO 00:55:14 04:13:29 02:51:05 08:05:08 -15:48 US$ 2,000 1070
9 Callum Millward NZL 00:49:35 04:18:56 02:53:24 08:07:13 -11:06 US$ 1,500 855
10 Marc Duelsen GER 00:49:32 04:22:04 02:50:16 08:07:25 -14:54 US$ 1,000 685
11 Daniel Fontana ITA 00:49:09 04:23:49 02:54:53 08:13:14 -06:46 515
12 Bas Diederen NED 00:49:03 04:18:04 03:01:38 08:14:31 06:10 385
13 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 00:55:13 04:20:24 02:55:53 08:16:08 -17:20 290
14 Jonathan Shearon USA 00:55:20 04:23:53 02:56:09 08:21:30 -08:59 215
15 Colin Laughery USA 00:54:35 04:28:49 03:07:51 08:37:52 -22:01 160
16 Jarrod Shoemaker USA 00:49:01 04:44:46 03:01:16 08:40:21 -21:36 120
17 James Capparell USA 00:48:56 04:29:50 03:16:09 08:41:10 n/a 90
18 Adam Gordon AUS 00:56:50 04:32:50 03:07:57 08:42:41 00:23 70
19 Andrew Starykowicz USA 00:49:15 04:01:14 03:58:07 08:54:45 41:54 50
20 Matt Shanks USA 01:00:44 04:56:05 03:04:45 09:07:30 -11:49 40
21 Tomas Mika CZE 00:54:36 05:02:06 03:06:27 09:09:25 24:07 25
22 Peter Kotland CZE 01:00:44 04:42:56 03:20:50 09:12:35 -16:09 25
23 Antony Costes FRA 00:49:10 04:14:37 04:08:31 09:17:17 07:50 25
24 Patrick Schuster USA 01:06:38 04:39:25 03:28:28 09:22:39 04:12 25
25 Timothy Nichols USA 01:14:08 05:05:40 04:28:34 11:01:08 n/a 25
Paul Ambrose AUS 00:49:22 04:22:35 DNF
Ivan Tutukin RUS 00:49:19 04:34:33 DNF
Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 00:49:28 04:42:37 DNF
Harry Wiltshire GBR 00:48:57 04:43:23 DNF
Paul Matthews AUS 00:49:20 04:48:49 DNF
Frank Souza BRA 00:49:23 DNF
Trevor Delsaut FRA 00:55:14 DNF
Jordan Rapp USA 00:55:16 DNF
Joe Skipper GBR 00:55:18 DNF
Matic Modic SLO 00:56:45 DNF

Female Race Results

The female race was dominated by Lauren Brandon for most of the day. After posting the fastest swim of the whole field (including the men!) she also rode strong and started the run with 5 minute gap to Jodie Robertson. For a while Jocelyn McCauley was also in the lead group, but she fell back with technical problems on the bike and eventually finished in 12th place. In T2, Jodie was closely followed by three more podium contenders, Maja Stage Nielsen, Tine Deckers and Alicia Kaye who were less than a minute behind her at the start of the run.

But it was quickly apparent that Jodie would be the best runner of the front group, at mile 10 she took the lead from Lauren and continued to run strong. She won the race with a solid 3:03 marathon which was also fast enough for a sub-9 finish. Second place went to Austrian Michi Herlbauer who had the best run split among the top finishers, also finishing sub-9. Third place went to the Maja Stage Nielsen from Denmark who ran by Alicia Kaye (4th), Tine Deckers (5th) and Lauren Brandon (6th). Kelly Williamson (7th) had the best run of the day, she ran a 2:56:30 marathon. Malindi Elmore in 8th also went sub-3 on the run.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Jodie Robertson USA 01:02:31 04:43:45 03:03:41 08:56:32 -26:11 US$ 30,000 4000
2 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 00:57:57 04:53:47 03:02:27 08:59:31 -11:36 US$ 15,000 3400
3 Maja Stage Nielsen DEN 01:01:02 04:47:31 03:07:45 09:01:00 -11:23 US$ 8,000 2890
4 Alicia Kaye USA 00:52:52 04:55:34 03:11:00 09:04:40 -22:34 US$ 6,500 2455
5 Tine Deckers BEL 01:00:35 04:47:55 03:12:24 09:06:08 -01:54 US$ 5,000 2090
6 Lauren Brandon USA 00:48:52 04:53:03 03:19:25 09:06:25 01:44 US$ 3,500 1670
7 Kelly Williamson USA 00:55:41 05:13:40 02:56:30 09:11:19 -03:29 US$ 2,500 1335
8 Malindi Elmore CAN 01:07:54 04:59:15 02:59:10 09:11:34 10:05 US$ 2,000 1070
9 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 00:59:25 05:01:34 03:07:08 09:13:22 -23:57 US$ 1,500 855
10 Caroline Livesey GBR 01:01:21 04:52:21 03:19:12 09:18:33 -23:09 US$ 1,000 685
11 Celine Schaerer SUI 00:52:55 05:08:12 03:19:02 09:25:34 08:29 515
12 Jocelyn McCauley USA 00:57:40 05:11:48 03:12:40 09:27:42 17:27 385
13 Annett Finger GER 01:02:34 04:58:43 03:27:42 09:33:48 -11:38 290
14 Darbi Roberts USA 00:55:32 05:05:26 03:36:27 09:43:43 19:29 215
15 Erin Green USA 01:03:56 05:10:13 03:27:11 09:48:40 -09:29 160
16 Nicole Luse USA 01:14:35 05:09:54 03:18:24 09:49:00 -23:45 120
17 Shiao-yu Li TWN 01:08:04 05:30:23 03:40:42 10:25:44 48:15 90
Jessica Jones Meyers USA 00:59:29 05:03:55 DNF
Amber Ferreira USA 00:57:52 05:06:56 DNF
Francesca Sanjana GBR 01:07:56 05:15:07 DNF
Ashley Paulson USA 01:14:31 DNF

Kona Qualifying

Here’s a look at the implications for Kona slots on the male side:

  • Automatic Qualifier: Matt Hanson
  • Safe (enough points): Ronnie Schildknecht, Tyler Butterfield, Matt Russell (Matt was already safe)
  • On the Bubble (could be enough, but not sure): David Please, Marc Duelsen
  • Close (more points needed): Daniel Fontana, Will Clarke

And on the female side:

  • Automatic Qualifier: Jodie Robertson
  • Safe: Alicia Kaye, Maja Stage Nielsen
  • On the Bubble: Michaela Herlbauer, Lauren Brandon, Jocelyn McCauley (Jocelyn was on the bubble before, her 12th place was not enough to advance to the “safe” category)
  • Close: Malindi Elmore, Tine Deckers, Celine Schärer

Ironman Australia 2017 (May 7th) – Seedings

IMAustraliaLogo

Update May 4th: Pedro Gomes announced on Twitter he’s focusing on IM Brasil.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:25:44 Lisa Bentley (CAN) 09:13:20
2006 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:20:42 Lisa Bentley (CAN) 09:19:44
2007 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:21:49 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 09:12:59
2008 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:31:32 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 09:03:54
2009 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:24:53 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:57:10
2010 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:23:54 Carrie Lester (AUS) 09:23:46
2011 Pete Jacobs (AUS) 08:29:28 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 09:29:54
2012 Paul Ambrose (AUS) 08:17:38 Michelle Gailey (AUS) 09:34:57
2013 Luke Bell (AUS) 08:30:23 Rebecca Hoschke (AUS) 09:34:55
2014 Elliot Holtham (CAN) 08:35:18 Melissa Hauschildt (AUS) 09:28:43
2015 Paul Ambrose (AUS) 08:35:53 Michelle Bremer (NZL) 09:38:24
2016 Tim Reed (AUS) 08:16:34 Beth Gerdes (USA)
Michelle Bremer (NZL)
09:10:28
09:13:34

Beth Gerdes was DQ’d a couple of months after the 2016 race because of increased levels of Ostarine, possibly caused by tainted salt tablet. For more details, please check out her blog post about this incident.

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Tim Reed AUS 00:47:00 04:34:30 02:51:32 08:16:34
2 David Dellow AUS 00:44:42 04:36:48 02:57:23 08:22:18
3 Clayton Fettell AUS 00:43:47 04:29:14 03:07:02 08:23:22

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Beth Gerdes USA 00:56:47 05:13:54 02:56:10 09:10:28
2 1 Michelle Bremer NZL 00:54:28 05:03:54 03:11:46 09:13:34
3 2 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 00:56:51 05:17:25 03:24:17 09:42:16
4 3 Melanie Burke NZL 01:01:31 05:24:27 03:26:54 09:56:54

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:16:34 Tim Reed 2016-05-01
Swim overall 00:43:47 Clayton Fettell 2016-05-01
Swim overall 00:43:47 Josh Amberger 2016-05-01
Bike overall 04:27:51 Dougal Allan 2016-05-01
Run overall 02:47:20 Tim Van Berkel 2012-04-29
Total female 08:57:10 Chrissie Wellington 2009-04-05
Swim female 00:48:42 Melissa Ashton 2006-05-11
Bike female 05:00:57 Carrie Lester 2010-03-28
Run female 02:56:10
03:01:06
Beth Gerdes
Lisa Bentley
2016-05-01
2006-05-11

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Australia is 06:44.

Race Adjustments for IM Australia

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 06:16 02:34 -05:19 01:33 30 06:16 02:34 -05:19 01:33
2007 06:51 02:07 -03:18 01:24 36 06:34 02:20 -04:18 01:29
2008 03:29 00:33 -00:35 00:38 24 05:32 01:45 -03:04 01:12
2009 05:55 00:15 -02:50 00:47 28 05:38 01:22 -03:00 01:06
2010 11:09 05:12 03:02 -02:52 18 06:44 02:08 -01:48 00:18
2011 06:26 02:03 -02:30 01:27 14 06:41 02:07 -01:55 00:30
2012 10:09 02:50 00:15 04:52 9 07:11 02:14 -01:36 01:07
2013 12:58 01:43 -01:55 05:23 9 07:54 02:10 -01:39 01:39
2014 12:30 04:04 -02:38 09:33 15 of 17 08:25 02:22 -01:45 02:32
2015 -00:46 03:36 -00:50 -01:52 18 of 24 07:30 02:30 -01:40 02:05
2016 -00:50 02:24 03:31 01:35 23 of 29 06:44 02:29 -01:11 02:03

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Australia is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 40.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 8% of a typical Kona field.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Tim Reed AUS 08:13:55 08:34:05 00:45:53 04:33:57 02:49:04 9% +37% -53% (5) (40)
2 3 David Dellow AUS 08:18:53 08:25:23 00:44:21 04:37:04 02:52:28 76% +2% -23% (15) 19
3 5 Michael Fox AUS 08:24:20 08:40:35 00:43:54 04:39:41 02:55:46 66% +34% -0% (3) 70
4 7 Brad Kahlefeldt AUS 08:24:51 08:30:57 00:43:53 04:44:11 02:51:47 68% +0% -32% (3) (29)
5 4 Clayton Fettell AUS 08:25:00 08:42:35 00:43:03 04:31:58 03:04:59 41% +14% -45% (10) 74
6 2 Paul Ambrose AUS 08:32:57 08:42:17 00:47:39 04:38:56 03:01:21 49% +3% -48% (21) 73
7 8 Pedro Gomes POR 08:33:06 08:35:16 00:49:45 04:44:56 02:53:25 67% +1% -31% (25) 51
8 6 Chris McDonald AUS 08:35:32 08:43:39 00:50:26 04:39:50 03:00:16 65% +15% -20% (44) 78
9 9 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:47:48 09:00:02 00:50:18 04:45:48 03:06:42 69% +0% -31% (18) 137
10 12 Levi Maxwell AUS 08:49:21 09:04:50 00:51:28 04:56:04 02:56:49 48% +52% -0% (2) (153)
11 10 Carl Read NZL 08:55:34 09:08:04 00:50:59 05:01:24 02:58:11 74% +8% -18% (11) 160
12 11 Daniel Brown AUS 10:47:36 11:30:42 01:01:09 05:37:06 04:04:21 45% +0% -55% (2) (295)
13 Nathan Shearer AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 1% of a typical Kona field.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 21 Laura Siddall GBR 09:19:33 09:32:32 00:54:50 05:05:37 03:14:06 63% +30% -7% (10) 33
2 20 Michelle Gailey AUS 09:41:10 09:54:58 00:52:46 05:24:26 03:18:58 70% +0% -30% (10) (70)
3 25 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:48:05 09:57:46 00:51:27 05:29:28 03:22:10 81% +0% -19% (12) 73
4 22 Jessica Mitchell AUS 10:21:32 10:39:35 01:02:22 05:36:59 03:37:12 100% +0% -0% (2) (141)
5 24 Jessica Richards AUS 10:38:28 11:02:49 01:05:40 05:25:39 04:02:09 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (147)
23 Lauren Parker AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (3) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

2016 Champion Tim Reed is back to defend his title. He faces a number of strong Australian athletes that can easily win the race on a good day:

  • Tim Reed: 47% (1-1)
  • David Dellow: 29% (2-1)
  • Michael Fox: 9% (10-1)
  • Clayton Fettell: 8% (12-1)
  • Chris McDonald: 2% (39-1)
  • Brad Kahlefeldt: 2% (40-1)
  • Paul Ambrose: 2% (61-1)

Female Race Participants

Laura Siddall has already raced two IM distance races in February (2nd at Challenge Wanaka) and March (2nd at IM New Zealand), but she needs a couple more Kona points to qualify (probably xth or better). She’s the clear favorite to win her first IM-distance race, especially as her second place at Challenge Melbourne in April showed that she has recovered well from the racing at the start of the year:

  • Laura Siddall: 73% (1-1)
  • Michelle Gailey: 16% (5-1)
  • Karen Thibodeau: 9% (10-1)

Ironman Lanzarote 2017 (May 20th) – Entry List

Male Race Participants

Romain Guillaume tweeted that Bart Aernouts and Victor Del Corral will also be racing.

Name Nation KPR points KPR races
Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 2500 1+1
Cyril Viennot FRA 2420 2+1
Jesse Thomas USA 2085 1+2 (1100/345)
Carlos Lopez Diaz ESP 2000 1+0
Romain Guillaume FRA 1670 0+2 (0/750)
Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 845 2+0
Cedric Lassonde FRA 820 1+1
Samuel Huerzeler SUI 710 2+0
Konstantin Bachor GER 560 2+1
Mike Schifferle SUI 525 2+0
Alessandro Degasperi ITA 450 1+0
Philipp Koutny SUI 430 2+1
Diego Van Looy BEL 289 2+1
Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 115 2+0
Alain Djouad-Guibert MOR 80 0+2 (0/15)
Erik Holmberg SWE 30 1+0
Josep Vinolas ESP 10 1+0
Timothy Van Houtem BEL 0 0+0
Malte Bruns GER
Stephen Donnelly IRL
Guillaume Lecallier FRA
Philipp Mock GER
Victor Rodriguez ESP
Frederic Schaffner FRA
Dominique Fernan Wymmersch Gallego ESP

Female Race Participants

Name Nation KPR points KPR races
Lucy Gossage GBR 3445 1+0
Diana Riesler GER 2785 1+1
Darbi Roberts USA 2540 2+0
Alexandra Tondeur BEL 2140 2+1
Kelly Fillnow USA 2005 2+2 (405/140)
Tine Holst DEN 1700 2+1
Kate Comber GBR 1240 2+1
Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 235 1+0
Lucy Charles GBR 115 0+1
Camille Deligny FRA 0 0+0
Pia Englyst DEN

Challenge Taiwan 2017 (April 29th) – Seedings

CHTaiwanUpdate April 15th: Callum Millard has announced that he’ll be racing IM Texas instead of Challenge Taiwan.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2013 Dylan McNeice (NZL) 08:16:21 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:23:15
2014 Dylan McNeice (NZL) 08:23:44 Britta Martin (NZL) 09:02:23
2016 Fredrik Croneborg (SWE) 08:30:28 Shiao-yu Li (TWN) 09:40:05

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:51:56 04:33:57 02:59:10 08:30:28
2 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:45:35 04:35:19 03:21:31 08:48:37
3 Patrick Evoe USA 00:54:22 04:28:55 03:26:35 08:55:56

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Shiao-yu Li TWN 01:01:07 05:00:43 03:31:31 09:40:05
2 Jessica Fleming AUS 01:00:50 05:03:33 03:38:22 09:48:48
3 Kathryn Haesner NZL 00:57:07 05:14:49 03:31:04 09:49:33

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:16:21 Dylan McNeice 2013-05-04
Swim overall 00:45:35 Dylan McNeice 2016-05-07
Bike overall 04:26:56 Jason Shortis 2014-04-19
Run overall 02:52:33 Fredrik Croneborg 2013-05-04
Total female 09:02:23 Britta Martin 2014-04-19
Swim female 00:53:23 Hillary Biscay 2014-04-19
Bike female 04:54:37 Britta Martin 2014-04-19
Run female 03:04:16 Britta Martin 2014-04-19

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Taiwan is 09:38.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Taiwan

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2013 12:08 -04:03 15:08 04:14 14 12:08 -04:03 15:08 04:14
2014 20:48 -00:25 12:17 -02:01 17 of 22 16:28 -02:14 13:42 01:06
2016 -04:02 -00:20 06:09 -12:27 12 09:38 -01:36 11:11 -03:25

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 5% of a typical Kona field.

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 08:23:47 08:37:44 00:52:57 04:31:30 02:54:20 85% +3% -12% (11) 59
2 Callum Millward * NZL 08:23:53 08:34:52 00:50:14 04:31:11 02:57:28 41% +0% -59% (6) 45
3 Dougal Allan NZL 08:24:16 08:35:08 00:59:03 04:18:06 03:02:07 81% +8% -10% (8) 48
4 Ritchie Nicholls GBR 08:35:20 08:49:53 00:52:40 04:43:39 02:54:01 48% +0% -52% (6) 97
5 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:39:05 08:45:09 00:52:37 04:35:58 03:05:29 63% +6% -31% (21) 85
6 Denis Sketako SLO 08:40:41 08:59:26 00:55:54 04:33:24 03:06:22 51% +49% -0% (3) 133
7 Guy Crawford NZL 08:52:16 09:15:10 00:50:15 04:29:59 03:27:02 46% +24% -30% (13) 180
8 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:57:26 09:18:31 00:57:58 04:43:46 03:10:42 64% +1% -35% (97) 191
9 Frederic Garcia FRA 09:08:59 09:27:20 01:01:22 04:53:04 03:09:33 52% +0% -48% (4) (217)
10 Young Hwan Oh KOR 09:20:06 09:32:28 01:05:37 04:56:17 03:13:12 51% +29% -20% (7) 229
11 Valentin Zasypkin RUS 10:21:47 10:44:55 01:14:19 05:18:12 03:44:16 9% +48% -43% (6) 289
12 Josef Svoboda CZE 11:14:57 11:48:13 01:18:31 05:39:49 04:11:37 44% +22% -34% (15) 296
Christian Altstadt GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 3% of a typical Kona field.

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 Kathryn Haesner NZL 09:38:38 10:30:26 00:58:53 05:12:04 03:22:41 25% +36% -39% (3) (128)
2 Verena Walter GER 09:39:57 09:51:14 01:01:52 05:04:23 03:28:42 53% +36% -11% (7) 65
3 Lucie Reed CZE 09:43:00 09:52:51 00:54:18 05:15:51 03:27:51 64% +0% -36% (27) 67
4 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:43:58 10:12:26 00:56:45 05:10:22 03:31:51 25% +6% -69% (28) (102)
5 Alyssa Godesky USA 09:55:34 10:10:02 01:02:55 05:19:32 03:28:07 63% +28% -10% (16) 95
Alise Selsmark AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Fredrik Croneborg: 46% (1-1)
  • Dougal Allan: 34% (2-1)
  • Callum Millward: 14% (6-1)
  • Ritchie Nicholls: 2% (40-1)
  • Denis Sketako: 2% (44-1)
  • Courtney Ogden: 2% (63-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Kathryn Haesner: 39% (2-1)
  • Verena Walter: 29% (2-1)
  • Lucie Reed: 14% (6-1)
  • Kate Bevilaqua: 10% (9-1)
  • Alyssa Godesky: 8% (12-1)

Looking forward to the 70.3 Championships in Chattanooga

In addition to the ratings for full-distance races, I’ve started to collect and analyze results for “half-distance” races. The most important race on this distance is the “70.3 World Championships”. After being held in Clearwater, Florida from 2006 to 2010 and Henderson, Nevada for three years, the race venue has been changing each year. Last year it was held in Mooloolaba, Australia, this year’s edition will be a two-day event in Chattanooga, TN before it moves to Port Elizabeth in South Africa for next year.

Roughly five months before the race in Chattanooga, this post has a look at some of the athletes we can expect to play a major role in September. The Northern Hemisphere racing is just starting to pick up, so there may be new names coming to the front or established athletes changing their focus. For example, at the start of last season hardly anyone would have picked Holly Lawrence for a top finish at 70.3 Worlds, but then she had a string of good results over the summer and went on to win the 2016 70.3 World Championships. My friends at TriZone will be posting previews for the big 70.3 races using some of my data, have a look at their site as the season progresses!

Male Contenders for the 2017 Title

There’s a pretty big group of established 70.3 racers with excellent winning chances:

  • Sebastian Kienle (23% winning chance)
    Of course the 2012 and 2013 Champion has to be considered as one of the top favorites. But in the last years the 70.3 Champs have “only” been a stepping stone for Sebi to bigger goals in October.
  • Lionel Sanders (16%)
    Lionel has been racing extremely well over the 70.3 distance, but so far a podium at the 70.3 Worlds has eluded him. For 2017 he chose to focus on improving his swim so he has a reasonable to overcome the dynamics of the big fields that made it extremely hard in Mooloolaba to catch up to the main group. He has also said that he will not race Kona and will have the 70.3 Champs as his main focus for the season.
  • Terenzo Bozzone (14%)
    The 2008 Champion continues to race well on the 70.3 distance but it seems that he shifted his focus to the full distance. But he’s an experienced athlete that is still able to mix it up with the best on the half-distance.
  • Ruedi Wild (14%)
    Ruedi was 3rd at the 2016 Champs and has continued to win races even against strong competition. Even though he hasn’t won a big title yet, he should be considered for more than “just” a podium finish.
  • Javier Gomez (12%)
    By winning the title in 2014, Javier has shown that he’ll be a top contender when he decides to focus on the longer distances. It’s not clear if that’s his plan for the 2017 season as he’d love to contend for the ITU World title – and the Chattanooga race is just one week before the ITU Grand Final in Rotterdam. If he’s still in contention for the ITU title, I expect him to skip 70.3 Worlds this season. If he isn’t, he’ll be hard to ignore.
  • Tim Reed (8%)
    Winning the 2016 title in his home country was an emotional highlight for Tim Reed – and quite a surprise.  A successful title defense is probably even more unexpected.
Some other names:
  • Tim Don (4%)
    Tim focuses his racing on the 70.3 distance and is extremely successful. But he might lack just the last 1% of top speed to contend for the title in the stacked field I expect in Chattanooga.
  • Sam Appleton (3%)
    “Appo” has been steadily improving and after a 5th place in 2016, he’ll be eying the podium in 2017.
  • Andy Potts (3%)
    Andy continues to race well but seeing him repeat his 2007 title would be a huge upset. He’s likely focusing on racing well in Kona.
Some notable athletes are missing above because they have no recent 70.3 results (and therefore no winning probability):
  • Jan Frodeno
    Jan hasn’t finished a 70.3 for more than a year – and it’s unclear if he decides to tackle qualifying for Chattanooga. He has shown in 2016 that his main focus will be on defending his title in October and that he will sacrifice other goals for this.
  • Alistair and Jonathan Brownlee
    There has been speculation that the Brownlees will be moving to longer distances – if they decide to do so they’ll be immediately “short listed” for the title. However, it’s unclear if this will happen in 2017 or later. Alistair is on a few start lists for half-distance races so there seems to be a good chance to see him race in Chattanooga.

Female Contenders for the 2017 Title

While there are easily four or more male contenders for the 70.3 title, it looks as if there are two clear front runners on the female side:

  • Holly Lawrence (45% winning chance)
    Holly was the dominating 70.3 athlete of 2016, winning a couple of big races over the summer and also capturing the title with a strong swim/bike combo. Her win at the early season race in Oceanside has shown that she’s able to race at a similar level in 2017.
  • Daniela Ryf (28%)
    The 2016 70.3 Champs was the first race that Daniela was not able to win since her Kona debut in 2014. As usual she’ll have a big racing schedule over the summer (including a rumored world record attempt in Roth), and Chattanoga may be in the middle of a big Kona training block – similar to last year when she didn’t appear to be 100% fresh for Mooloolaba.
However, this does not mean that one of these two will automatically win the title, there are a lot of other athletes to consider. Just a few examples:
  • Melissa Hauschildt (10%)
    Mel has won the title in 2011 and 2013 and was the runner up in 2016. If she’s healthy, she is one of the few that’s able to beat Daniela and Holly.
  • Heather Wurtele (3%)
    Heather has been on the podium for the last three years and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her extend that streak. But in past 70.3 Championship races she had to make up too much time after the swim to be in contention for the title.
There are a lot more athletes that wouldn’t be a big surprise to make it onto the podium when they are healthy and decide to put a focus on 70.3 Worlds: Helle Frederiksen, Angela Naeth, Heather Jackson, Meredith Kessler, Ellie Salthouse, Annabel Luxford just to name a few.
Select your currency
EUR Euro
USD United States (US) dollar

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close