TriRating – Page 183 – Triathlon. Data. Insights.

Inofficial August Kona Pro Slots

August 27, 2016

Here is my calculation of the KPR at the end of August, deciding the final 10 male and 7 female slots (in addition to the July qualifiers). My results are unofficial, the official results will be posted on the Ironman website at http://eu.ironman.com/triathlon/triathlon-rankings/points-system.aspx (but as far as I can tell shows the same data). I will update this post with new information regarding declined slots and rolldown. For now, the athletes with a rank in brackets (e.g. “(11)”) are outside of the August slots. I will update this post with information about slot declines and rolldowns.

Update Aug 22nd: Annah Watkinson announced that she will decline her slot, it rolls down to Michaela Herlbauer:

Update Aug 23rd: Callum Millward has received a roll-down slot from Chris Leiferman.

Update Aug 26th: All slots have been accepted, there have been no further rolldowns.

Male Slots

Rank	Name	Points	Races
1	Raelert, Andreas	7605	2+0
2	Clarke, Will	4230	2+2
3	Matthews, Paul	4185	2+3 (960/145)
4	Billard, Bertrand	3990	2+3 (1070/320)
5	Buckingham, Kyle	3840	3+2 (340/345)
6	Amorelli, Igor	3805	2+3 (720/240)
7	Rapp, Jordan	3770	3+1 (720/0)
8	Wiltshire, Harry	3760	3+2 (720/400)
9	Carvalho, Fabio	3740	2+3 (1280/135)
Decl	Leiferman, Chris	3615	1+3 (2000/435)
10	Millward, Callum	3580	2+3 (685/435)
(11)	McDonald, Chris	3525	3+2 (540/20)
(12)	Chrabot, Matt	3470	2+3 (235/345)
(13)	Brown, Cameron	3405	2+2
(14)	Costes, Antony	3280	2+3 (85/750)

Female Slots

Rank	Name	Points	Races
1	Ellis, Mary Beth	6720	3+2 (1900/320)
2	Moeller, Kristin	5145	3+1 (540/0)
3	Castro Nogueira, Saleta	4770	3+2 (720/240)
4	Steurer, Bianca	4090	3+2 (855/400)
5	Schmitt, Natascha	4060	1+3 (2455/500)
6	Wassner, Laurel	3930	3+2 (340/280)
Decl	Watkinson, Annah	3890	2+3 (1070/180)
7	Herlbauer, Michaela	3865	3+2 (305/140)
(8)	Lidbury, Emma-Kate	3695	3+2 (720/125)
(9)	Riesler, Diana	3460	2+1

Ironman Sweden 2016 – Analyzing Results

February 26, 2017

Race Conditions

This year’s IM Sweden was one of the faster editions of this race, indicating that the wind conditions were quite favorable. But as it was a WPRO only race and there were only three previously rated PRO athletes, the strength of this analysis is not very high.

Race Results

Kristin Möller was able to hold the distance to the front on the bike, and the race best 2:55 marathon (second fastest of all year so far!) allowed her to win by a comfortable margin.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Kristin Moeller	GER	01:02:48	05:12:09	02:55:09	09:14:39	01:38	US$ 20000
2	Lucie Reed	CZE	00:54:03	05:11:35	03:11:11	09:21:31	-03:30	US$ 10000
3	Carolin Lehrieder	GER	00:57:47	05:01:25	03:22:15	09:24:30	-01:39	US$ 6500
4	Julia Montgomery	SWE	01:06:49	05:13:43	03:40:08	10:05:04	n/a	US$ 4000
5	Jessica Ahlund	SWE	01:02:46	05:27:26	03:56:48	10:31:03	n/a	US$ 3000

KPR Situation

With her win after a lot of racing in July, Kristin finally secured an August Kona slot.

Challenge Regensburg 2016 – Analyzing Results

February 26, 2017

Race Conditions

This was the first race for Challenge Regensburg, all the individual legs were relatively slow and the resulting adjustment of 3:17 is comparable to IM Cairns or IM France.

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Jan Raphael	GER	00:50:01	04:33:38	03:01:11	08:27:27	-08:45	EUR 6000
2	Chris Fischer	DEN	00:55:16	04:41:02	02:52:11	08:31:30	-06:25	EUR 3900
3	Matic Modic	SLO	00:56:55	04:49:10	02:50:45	08:39:52	-11:56	EUR 2750
4	Sebastian Bleisteiner	GER	00:49:58	04:46:06	03:12:49	08:52:13	-02:22	EUR 1900
5	Sebastian Neef	GER	00:51:16	04:45:10	03:19:33	08:58:49	n/a	EUR 1500
6	Malte Bruns	GER	00:55:08	04:57:28	03:05:03	09:01:05	15:53	EUR 1200
7	Tomas Mika	CZE	00:53:52	05:01:07	03:05:24	09:03:46	04:12	EUR 1000
8	Sebastian Veith	GER	00:49:55	05:00:10	03:11:55	09:05:18	n/a	EUR 750
9	Mike Schifferle	SUI	01:00:32	04:52:14	03:08:15	09:05:56	07:09
10	Oliver Gonzalez	MEX	00:53:04	05:16:28	03:08:14	09:21:29	-10:18
11	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	00:57:11	05:09:46	03:20:08	09:30:35	31:08
12	Udo Tschirschwitz	GER	01:11:56	05:30:16	03:53:39	10:42:12	n/a
	Christian Birngruber	AUT	00:53:07	04:47:00		DNF
	Diederik Scheltinga	NED	00:51:20	04:54:20		DNF
	Joe Skipper	GBR	00:57:09	04:51:20		DNF
	Mattera Crescenzo	ITA	01:46:08			DNF

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Julia Viellehner	GER	01:01:18	05:24:18	03:08:46	09:37:32	n/a	EUR 6000
2	Erika Csomor	HUN	01:00:55	05:18:42	03:21:53	09:45:04	13:38	EUR 3900
3	Silvia Felt	GER	01:05:03	05:16:46	03:22:47	09:48:17	-07:59	EUR 2750
4	Nicole Woysch	GER	00:59:22	05:19:49	03:35:42	09:59:44	-19:24	EUR 1900
5	Tamsyn Hayes	NZL	01:01:01	05:26:24	03:37:41	10:09:07	-05:20	EUR 1500
6	Kathrin Walther	GER	00:59:16	05:18:24	03:52:46	10:15:02	05:11	EUR 1200
7	Jana Candrova	CZE	01:04:14	05:38:07	03:49:46	10:35:56	10:08	EUR 1000
	Anne Jensen	DEN	01:04:52			DNF

KPR Situation Before the Last Races for Kona 2016

August 22, 2016

The final races for 2016 qualifying are going to be on the upcoming weekend of August 21st. While the last 70.3 at Timberman sees athletes already qualified or too far back, there are a of athletes looking for slots in the final three full-distance Ironman races (Mont Tremblant, Sweden as WPRO only and Copenhagen as MPRO only). The races on August 28th are already part of the 2017 qualifying period. This post looks at the final slots to be decided based on the rankings before the last weekend and the start lists posted on the Ironman website.

After the races are over, I’ll post the unofficial rankings based on my calculations as soon as possible.

Women

Based on the current situation, the first three of the remaining slots will go to Mary Beth Ellis, Saleta Castro and Bianca Steurer.

Here is a table at the athletes currently in the qualifying slots and those that are still able to move into the Top 7 August slots:

Rank	Name	Country	Points	Races	Race Plan	Needed
4	Schmitt, Natascha	DEU	4.060	1+3 (2455/500)
5	Watkinson, Annah	ZAF	3.890	2+3 (1070/180)
6	Herlbauer, Michaela	AUT	3.865	3+2 (305/140)
7	Lidbury, Emma-kate	GBR	3.695	3+2 (720/125)
10	Badmann, Natascha	CHE	3.325	3+2 (230/135)	IM Sweden	5th
11	Moeller, Kristin	DEU	3.315	3+1 (170/515)	IM Sweden	5th
15	Stevens, Amanda	USA	2.925	2+3 (720/145)	IM Mont Tremblant	4th
23	Wassner, Laurel	USA	2.405	2+3 (340/75)	IM Mont Tremblant	2nd
43	Bevilaqua, Kate	AUS	1.775	1+3 (540/400)	IM Mont Tremblant	Win

(Please note that “Needed” is the minimum result needed for qualifying, however it does not assure a slot when others add points as well.)

Men

The men’s situation is a lot more dynamic. Here’s a table looking at the athletes on the bubble and those that still have a chance to pass Paul Matthews who is currently in the last qualifying spot:

Rank	Name	Country	Points	Races	Race Plan	Needed
1	Raelert, Andreas	DEU	7.200	1+0	IM Copenhagen
2	Billard, Bertrand	FRA	3.990	2+3 (1070/320)
3	Buckingham, Kyle	ZAF	3.840	3+2 (340/345)
4	Wiltshire, Harry	GBR	3.760	3+2 (720/400)	IM Copenhagen
5	Millward, Callum	NZL	3.580	2+3 (685/435)	IM Mont Tremblant
6	Mcdonald, Chris	USA	3.525	3+2 (540/20)	IM Mont Tremblant
7	Chrabot, Matt	USA	3.470	2+3 (235/345)
8	Amorelli, Igor	BRA	3.320	2+3 (235/240)	IM Copenhagen
9	Costes, Antony	FRA	3.280	2+3 (85/750)	IM Copenhagen
10	Matthews, Paul	AUS	3.225	1+3 (2455/145)	IM Mont Tremblant
12	Aigroz, Mike	CHE	3.200	3+2 (120/140)	IM Copenhagen	10th
18	Brown, Cameron	NZL	2.865	1+2	IM Copenhagen	7th
20	Clarke, William	GBR	2.630	1+2	IM Copenhagen	5th
21	Guillaume, Romain	FRA	2.535	2+3 (565/20)	IM Mont Tremblant	5th
22	Rapp, Jordan	USA	2.510	3+1 (340/115)	IM Mont Tremblant	3rd
23	Starykowicz, Andrew	USA	2.500	1+3 (960/400)	IM Mont Tremblant	4th
25	Carvalho, Fabio	BRA	2.460	1+3 (1670/135)	IM Copenhagen	4th
26	Del Corral Morales, Victor	ESP	2.320	1+2	IM Mont Tremblant	4th
28	Shearon, Jonathan	USA	2.115	3+2 (230/100)	IM Mont Tremblant	2nd
44	Blokhin, Anton	BLR	1.735	1+3 (1600/15)	IM Copenhagen	2nd
56	Leiferman, Chris	USA	1.615	0+3 (-/435)	IM Mont Tremblant	1st

(Please note that “Needed” is the minimum result needed for qualifying, however it does not assure a slot when others add points as well.)

Ironman Mont Tremblant (Aug 21st) – Predictions

February 26, 2017

IMMT

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2012	Romain Guillaume (FRA)	08:40:48	Jessie Donavan (USA)	09:30:46
2013	Luke Bell (AUS)	08:26:06	Mary Beth Ellis (USA)	09:07:56
2014	TJ Tollakson (USA)	08:16:17	Sara Gross (CAN)	09:40:26
2015	Jordan Rapp (USA)	08:17:37	Mary Beth Ellis (USA)	09:09:05

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Jordan Rapp	USA	00:51:33	04:25:01	02:55:53	08:17:37
2	Justin Daerr	USA	00:51:39	04:41:50	02:57:41	08:36:12
3	Paul Ambrose	AUS	00:50:56	04:37:06	03:04:26	08:38:12

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	00:50:22	04:53:21	03:20:02	09:09:05
2	Liz Blatchford	AUS	00:52:03	05:01:15	03:10:56	09:09:55
3	Lisa Roberts	USA	01:04:30	05:02:47	03:00:37	09:13:45

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:16:17	TJ Tollakson	2014-08-17
Swim	overall	00:47:45	Brandon Marsh	2013-08-18
Bike	overall	04:25:01	Jordan Rapp	2015-08-16
Run	overall	02:52:20	Stefan Schmid	2013-08-18
Total	female	09:07:56	Mary Beth Ellis	2013-08-18
Swim	female	00:49:22	Haley Chura	2013-08-18
Bike	female	04:53:21	Mary Beth Ellis	2015-08-16
Run	female	03:00:37	Lisa Roberts	2015-08-16

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Mont Tremblant is 07:10.

Race Adjustments for IM Mont Tremblant

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2012	09:58	-01:07	06:23	04:34	13	09:58	-01:07	06:23	04:34
2013	04:48	-00:33	03:38	03:49	36	07:23	-00:50	05:00	04:12
2014	07:49	-01:34	02:33	05:06	16 of 24	07:31	-01:04	04:11	04:30
2015	06:04	00:04	07:17	01:14	35 of 41	07:10	-00:47	04:58	03:41

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Mont Tremblant is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 100.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	1	Jordan Rapp	USA	08:22:34	08:29:37	00:53:05	04:30:12	02:54:17	77% +8% -15% (19)	21
2	8	Callum Millward	NZL	08:22:51	08:31:20	00:49:13	04:37:55	02:50:43	53% +0% -47% (5)	(26)
3	7	Paul Matthews	AUS	08:26:22	08:31:09	00:47:48	04:37:06	02:56:29	35% +0% -65% (9)	24
4	6	Andrew Starykowicz	USA	08:28:27	08:32:59	00:49:56	04:20:57	03:12:34	60% +0% -40% (7)	31
5	3	Matthew Russell	USA	08:30:28	08:46:02	00:57:42	04:35:45	02:52:01	52% +33% -15% (37)	79
6	9	Victor Del Corral	ESP	08:31:00	08:39:51	00:56:29	04:39:51	02:49:40	59% +0% -41% (14)	54
7	2	Romain Guillaume	FRA	08:31:15	08:49:26	00:49:12	04:33:48	03:03:16	52% +18% -30% (28)	89
8	24	Eric Limkemann	USA	08:35:03	08:43:42	00:50:25	04:37:01	03:02:36	50% +32% -18% (4)	(66)
9	5	Paul Ambrose	AUS	08:35:26	09:00:17	00:50:33	04:36:38	03:03:15	41% +4% -56% (20)	125
10	4	Chris McDonald	AUS	08:42:23	08:46:05	00:54:17	04:41:01	03:02:05	67% +7% -26% (42)	80
11	16	Thomas Gerlach	USA	08:43:33	09:01:16	00:54:41	04:38:09	03:05:43	39% +11% -51% (21)	129
12	29	Jonathan Shearon	USA	08:44:13	08:54:44	00:54:22	04:39:30	03:05:21	63% +10% -26% (14)	100
13	20	Stephen Kilshaw	CAN	08:47:45	09:11:37	00:55:55	04:46:38	03:00:13	59% +40% -1% (8)	164
14	15	Scott Defilippis	USA	08:50:00	09:11:49	00:57:10	04:53:46	02:54:04	32% +29% -39% (22)	167
15	11	Christopher Bagg	USA	08:56:37	09:26:21	00:54:43	04:48:27	03:08:26	8% +36% -56% (12)	210
16	13	Guy Crawford	NZL	08:59:21	09:14:38	00:49:49	04:40:26	03:24:06	27% +37% -36% (12)	179
17	19	Chad Holderbaum	USA	09:04:15	09:13:54	00:55:22	04:50:00	03:13:53	41% +9% -50% (10)	176
18	14	Matthew Curbeau	USA	09:05:32	09:25:58	00:56:38	04:49:04	03:14:51	33% +43% -24% (6)	208
19	25	James Lubinski	USA	09:08:26	09:28:28	01:03:21	04:54:44	03:05:21	38% +35% -27% (17)	217
20	23	Colin Laughery	USA	09:14:57	09:22:30	00:59:51	04:57:55	03:12:11	100% +0% -0% (3)	(197)
21	27	Brendan Naef	CAN	09:15:17	09:34:31	00:58:09	04:59:24	03:12:43	51% +49% -0% (8)	230
22	28	Kyle Pawlaczyk	USA	09:17:06	09:52:27	00:56:49	05:01:21	03:13:56	6% +19% -75% (8)	(263)
23	18	Travis Hawkins	USA	09:36:23	09:50:05	01:03:07	05:07:43	03:20:33	100% +0% -0% (2)	(261)
24	21	Peter Kotland	CZE	09:36:41	09:55:55	00:59:52	05:03:15	03:28:35	54% +26% -21% (21)	266
25	12	Timothy Clarke	USA	09:47:06	10:06:57	00:57:38	05:09:16	03:35:12	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(278)
	10	Chris Leiferman	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	17	Nick Glavac	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	22	David Lacombe	CAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	26	Jerome McEniry	CAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	35	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	09:09:43	09:18:10	00:51:19	04:57:52	03:15:32	94% +0% -6% (18)	14
2	37	Carrie Lester	AUS	09:11:53	09:25:57	00:54:50	05:02:22	03:09:42	49% +36% -15% (19)	23
3	36	Amanda Stevens	USA	09:22:28	09:30:05	00:52:21	05:10:49	03:14:17	60% +21% -19% (17)	28
4	38	Uli Bromme	USA	09:37:45	09:51:41	01:03:53	05:10:33	03:18:19	35% +38% -27% (14)	70
5	40	Amber Ferreira	USA	09:40:01	09:55:26	00:57:34	05:14:28	03:23:00	43% +21% -36% (15)	80
6	39	Laurel Wassner	USA	09:44:31	09:52:41	00:55:43	05:28:05	03:15:43	68% +0% -32% (8)	73
7	41	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	09:49:27	10:11:07	00:56:51	05:19:54	03:27:42	22% +6% -72% (27)	109
8	46	Caroline St-Pierre	CAN	09:57:34	10:20:51	00:56:51	05:36:38	03:19:04	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(132)
9	45	Caroline Martineau	CAN	10:12:48	10:35:05	01:04:30	05:27:15	03:36:02	42% +36% -22% (5)	(158)
10	42	Katy Cargiulo	USA	10:48:22	10:58:14	01:05:45	05:55:05	03:42:32	100% +0% -0% (3)	(166)
	43	Michelle Harburg	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	44	Jessica Jones	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	47	Amy Vantassel	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	48	Amanda Wendorff	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Jordan Rapp: 29% (2-1)
Callum Millward: 15% (6-1)
Matthew Russell: 14% (6-1)
Paul Matthews: 12% (7-1)
Andrew Starykowicz: 8% (12-1)
Eric Limkemann: 6% (15-1)
Victor Del Corral: 6% (17-1)
Romain Guillaume: 4% (22-1)
Paul Ambrose: 4% (27-1)

Female Race Participants

Mary Beth Ellis: 48% (1-1)
Carrie Lester: 39% (2-1)
Amanda Stevens: 8% (11-1)
Uli Bromme: 2% (47-1)
Amber Ferreira: 2% (55-1)

KPR Situation

Here are tables with the top-ranked athletes in the KPR (after the races of August 6th and 7th) that still have a chance for a Kona slot:

Top KPR Male Race Participants

Bib	Name	Nation	KPR points	KPR races
3	Matthew Russell	USA	6650	3+2 (720/180)
8	Callum Millward	NZL	3580	2+3 (685/435)
4	Chris McDonald	AUS	3525	3+2 (540/20)
7	Paul Matthews	AUS	3225	1+3 (2455/145)
2	Romain Guillaume	FRA	2535	2+3 (565/20)
1	Jordan Rapp	USA	2510	3+1 (340/0)
6	Andrew Starykowicz	USA	2500	1+3 (960/400)
9	Victor Del Corral	ESP	2320	1+2
29	Jonathan Shearon	USA	2115	3+2 (230/100)
10	Chris Leiferman	USA	1615	0+3 (0/435)

Top KPR Female Race Participants

Bib	Name	Nation	KPR points	KPR races
35	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	4900	2+3 (1900/180)
37	Carrie Lester	AUS	4420	2+2
36	Amanda Stevens	USA	2925	2+3 (720/145)
39	Laurel Wassner	USA	2405	2+3 (340/75)
41	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	1775	1+3 (540/400)

Mary Beth Ellis has already raced in Maastricht (and won there basically securing a Kona slot) and Carrie Lester received a July slot. Both are unlikely to race before Kona.

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