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Challenge Regensburg 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

This was the first race for Challenge Regensburg, all the individual legs were relatively slow and the resulting adjustment of 3:17 is comparable to IM Cairns or IM France.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Jan Raphael GER 00:50:01 04:33:38 03:01:11 08:27:27 -08:45 EUR 6000
2 Chris Fischer DEN 00:55:16 04:41:02 02:52:11 08:31:30 -06:25 EUR 3900
3 Matic Modic SLO 00:56:55 04:49:10 02:50:45 08:39:52 -11:56 EUR 2750
4 Sebastian Bleisteiner GER 00:49:58 04:46:06 03:12:49 08:52:13 -02:22 EUR 1900
5 Sebastian Neef GER 00:51:16 04:45:10 03:19:33 08:58:49 n/a EUR 1500
6 Malte Bruns GER 00:55:08 04:57:28 03:05:03 09:01:05 15:53 EUR 1200
7 Tomas Mika CZE 00:53:52 05:01:07 03:05:24 09:03:46 04:12 EUR 1000
8 Sebastian Veith GER 00:49:55 05:00:10 03:11:55 09:05:18 n/a EUR 750
9 Mike Schifferle SUI 01:00:32 04:52:14 03:08:15 09:05:56 07:09
10 Oliver Gonzalez MEX 00:53:04 05:16:28 03:08:14 09:21:29 -10:18
11 Petr Vabrousek CZE 00:57:11 05:09:46 03:20:08 09:30:35 31:08
12 Udo Tschirschwitz GER 01:11:56 05:30:16 03:53:39 10:42:12 n/a
Christian Birngruber AUT 00:53:07 04:47:00 DNF
Diederik Scheltinga NED 00:51:20 04:54:20 DNF
Joe Skipper GBR 00:57:09 04:51:20 DNF
Mattera Crescenzo ITA 01:46:08 DNF

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Julia Viellehner GER 01:01:18 05:24:18 03:08:46 09:37:32 n/a EUR 6000
2 Erika Csomor HUN 01:00:55 05:18:42 03:21:53 09:45:04 13:38 EUR 3900
3 Silvia Felt GER 01:05:03 05:16:46 03:22:47 09:48:17 -07:59 EUR 2750
4 Nicole Woysch GER 00:59:22 05:19:49 03:35:42 09:59:44 -19:24 EUR 1900
5 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 01:01:01 05:26:24 03:37:41 10:09:07 -05:20 EUR 1500
6 Kathrin Walther GER 00:59:16 05:18:24 03:52:46 10:15:02 05:11 EUR 1200
7 Jana Candrova CZE 01:04:14 05:38:07 03:49:46 10:35:56 10:08 EUR 1000
Anne Jensen DEN 01:04:52 DNF

KPR Situation Before the Last Races for Kona 2016

The final races for 2016 qualifying are going to be on the upcoming weekend of August 21st. While the last 70.3 at Timberman sees athletes already qualified or too far back, there are a of athletes looking for slots in the final three full-distance Ironman races (Mont Tremblant, Sweden as WPRO only and Copenhagen as MPRO only). The races on August 28th are already part of the 2017 qualifying period. This post looks at the final slots to be decided based on the rankings before the last weekend and the start lists posted on the Ironman website.

After the races are over, I’ll post the unofficial rankings based on my calculations as soon as possible.

Women

Based on the current situation, the first three of the remaining slots will go to Mary Beth Ellis, Saleta Castro and Bianca Steurer.

Here is a table at the athletes currently in the qualifying slots and those that are still able to move into the Top 7 August slots:

Rank Name Country Points Races Race Plan Needed
4 Schmitt, Natascha DEU 4.060 1+3 (2455/500)
5 Watkinson, Annah ZAF 3.890 2+3 (1070/180)
6 Herlbauer, Michaela AUT 3.865 3+2 (305/140)
7 Lidbury, Emma-kate GBR 3.695 3+2 (720/125)
10 Badmann, Natascha CHE 3.325 3+2 (230/135) IM Sweden 5th
11 Moeller, Kristin DEU 3.315 3+1 (170/515) IM Sweden 5th
15 Stevens, Amanda USA 2.925 2+3 (720/145) IM Mont Tremblant 4th
23 Wassner, Laurel USA 2.405 2+3 (340/75) IM Mont Tremblant 2nd
43 Bevilaqua, Kate AUS 1.775 1+3 (540/400) IM Mont Tremblant Win

(Please note that “Needed” is the minimum result needed for qualifying, however it does not assure a slot when others add points as well.)

Men

The men’s situation is a lot more dynamic. Here’s a table looking at the athletes on the bubble and those that still have a chance to pass Paul Matthews who is currently in the last qualifying spot:

Rank Name Country Points Races Race Plan Needed
1 Raelert, Andreas DEU 7.200 1+0 IM Copenhagen
2 Billard, Bertrand FRA 3.990 2+3 (1070/320)
3 Buckingham, Kyle ZAF 3.840 3+2 (340/345)
4 Wiltshire, Harry GBR 3.760 3+2 (720/400) IM Copenhagen
5 Millward, Callum NZL 3.580 2+3 (685/435) IM Mont Tremblant
6 Mcdonald, Chris USA 3.525 3+2 (540/20) IM Mont Tremblant
7 Chrabot, Matt USA 3.470 2+3 (235/345)
8 Amorelli, Igor BRA 3.320 2+3 (235/240) IM Copenhagen
9 Costes, Antony FRA 3.280 2+3 (85/750) IM Copenhagen
10 Matthews, Paul AUS 3.225 1+3 (2455/145) IM Mont Tremblant
12 Aigroz, Mike CHE 3.200 3+2 (120/140) IM Copenhagen 10th
18 Brown, Cameron NZL 2.865 1+2 IM Copenhagen 7th
20 Clarke, William GBR 2.630 1+2 IM Copenhagen 5th
21 Guillaume, Romain FRA 2.535 2+3 (565/20) IM Mont Tremblant 5th
22 Rapp, Jordan USA 2.510 3+1 (340/115) IM Mont Tremblant 3rd
23 Starykowicz, Andrew USA 2.500 1+3 (960/400) IM Mont Tremblant 4th
25 Carvalho, Fabio BRA 2.460 1+3 (1670/135) IM Copenhagen 4th
26 Del Corral Morales, Victor ESP 2.320 1+2 IM Mont Tremblant 4th
28 Shearon, Jonathan USA 2.115 3+2 (230/100) IM Mont Tremblant 2nd
44 Blokhin, Anton BLR 1.735 1+3 (1600/15) IM Copenhagen 2nd
56 Leiferman, Chris USA 1.615 0+3 (-/435) IM Mont Tremblant 1st

(Please note that “Needed” is the minimum result needed for qualifying, however it does not assure a slot when others add points as well.)

Ironman Mont Tremblant (Aug 21st) – Predictions

IMMT

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2012 Romain Guillaume (FRA) 08:40:48 Jessie Donavan (USA) 09:30:46
2013 Luke Bell (AUS) 08:26:06 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 09:07:56
2014 TJ Tollakson (USA) 08:16:17 Sara Gross (CAN) 09:40:26
2015 Jordan Rapp (USA) 08:17:37 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 09:09:05

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jordan Rapp USA 00:51:33 04:25:01 02:55:53 08:17:37
2 Justin Daerr USA 00:51:39 04:41:50 02:57:41 08:36:12
3 Paul Ambrose AUS 00:50:56 04:37:06 03:04:26 08:38:12

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Mary Beth Ellis USA 00:50:22 04:53:21 03:20:02 09:09:05
2 Liz Blatchford AUS 00:52:03 05:01:15 03:10:56 09:09:55
3 Lisa Roberts USA 01:04:30 05:02:47 03:00:37 09:13:45

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:16:17 TJ Tollakson 2014-08-17
Swim overall 00:47:45 Brandon Marsh 2013-08-18
Bike overall 04:25:01 Jordan Rapp 2015-08-16
Run overall 02:52:20 Stefan Schmid 2013-08-18
Total female 09:07:56 Mary Beth Ellis 2013-08-18
Swim female 00:49:22 Haley Chura 2013-08-18
Bike female 04:53:21 Mary Beth Ellis 2015-08-16
Run female 03:00:37 Lisa Roberts 2015-08-16

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Mont Tremblant is 07:10.

Race Adjustments for IM Mont Tremblant

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2012 09:58 -01:07 06:23 04:34 13 09:58 -01:07 06:23 04:34
2013 04:48 -00:33 03:38 03:49 36 07:23 -00:50 05:00 04:12
2014 07:49 -01:34 02:33 05:06 16 of 24 07:31 -01:04 04:11 04:30
2015 06:04 00:04 07:17 01:14 35 of 41 07:10 -00:47 04:58 03:41

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Mont Tremblant is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 100.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Jordan Rapp USA 08:22:34 08:29:37 00:53:05 04:30:12 02:54:17 77% +8% -15% (19) 21
2 8 Callum Millward NZL 08:22:51 08:31:20 00:49:13 04:37:55 02:50:43 53% +0% -47% (5) (26)
3 7 Paul Matthews AUS 08:26:22 08:31:09 00:47:48 04:37:06 02:56:29 35% +0% -65% (9) 24
4 6 Andrew Starykowicz USA 08:28:27 08:32:59 00:49:56 04:20:57 03:12:34 60% +0% -40% (7) 31
5 3 Matthew Russell USA 08:30:28 08:46:02 00:57:42 04:35:45 02:52:01 52% +33% -15% (37) 79
6 9 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:31:00 08:39:51 00:56:29 04:39:51 02:49:40 59% +0% -41% (14) 54
7 2 Romain Guillaume FRA 08:31:15 08:49:26 00:49:12 04:33:48 03:03:16 52% +18% -30% (28) 89
8 24 Eric Limkemann USA 08:35:03 08:43:42 00:50:25 04:37:01 03:02:36 50% +32% -18% (4) (66)
9 5 Paul Ambrose AUS 08:35:26 09:00:17 00:50:33 04:36:38 03:03:15 41% +4% -56% (20) 125
10 4 Chris McDonald AUS 08:42:23 08:46:05 00:54:17 04:41:01 03:02:05 67% +7% -26% (42) 80
11 16 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:43:33 09:01:16 00:54:41 04:38:09 03:05:43 39% +11% -51% (21) 129
12 29 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:44:13 08:54:44 00:54:22 04:39:30 03:05:21 63% +10% -26% (14) 100
13 20 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 08:47:45 09:11:37 00:55:55 04:46:38 03:00:13 59% +40% -1% (8) 164
14 15 Scott Defilippis USA 08:50:00 09:11:49 00:57:10 04:53:46 02:54:04 32% +29% -39% (22) 167
15 11 Christopher Bagg USA 08:56:37 09:26:21 00:54:43 04:48:27 03:08:26 8% +36% -56% (12) 210
16 13 Guy Crawford NZL 08:59:21 09:14:38 00:49:49 04:40:26 03:24:06 27% +37% -36% (12) 179
17 19 Chad Holderbaum USA 09:04:15 09:13:54 00:55:22 04:50:00 03:13:53 41% +9% -50% (10) 176
18 14 Matthew Curbeau USA 09:05:32 09:25:58 00:56:38 04:49:04 03:14:51 33% +43% -24% (6) 208
19 25 James Lubinski USA 09:08:26 09:28:28 01:03:21 04:54:44 03:05:21 38% +35% -27% (17) 217
20 23 Colin Laughery USA 09:14:57 09:22:30 00:59:51 04:57:55 03:12:11 100% +0% -0% (3) (197)
21 27 Brendan Naef CAN 09:15:17 09:34:31 00:58:09 04:59:24 03:12:43 51% +49% -0% (8) 230
22 28 Kyle Pawlaczyk USA 09:17:06 09:52:27 00:56:49 05:01:21 03:13:56 6% +19% -75% (8) (263)
23 18 Travis Hawkins USA 09:36:23 09:50:05 01:03:07 05:07:43 03:20:33 100% +0% -0% (2) (261)
24 21 Peter Kotland CZE 09:36:41 09:55:55 00:59:52 05:03:15 03:28:35 54% +26% -21% (21) 266
25 12 Timothy Clarke USA 09:47:06 10:06:57 00:57:38 05:09:16 03:35:12 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (278)
10 Chris Leiferman USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
17 Nick Glavac USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
22 David Lacombe CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
26 Jerome McEniry CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 35 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:09:43 09:18:10 00:51:19 04:57:52 03:15:32 94% +0% -6% (18) 14
2 37 Carrie Lester AUS 09:11:53 09:25:57 00:54:50 05:02:22 03:09:42 49% +36% -15% (19) 23
3 36 Amanda Stevens USA 09:22:28 09:30:05 00:52:21 05:10:49 03:14:17 60% +21% -19% (17) 28
4 38 Uli Bromme USA 09:37:45 09:51:41 01:03:53 05:10:33 03:18:19 35% +38% -27% (14) 70
5 40 Amber Ferreira USA 09:40:01 09:55:26 00:57:34 05:14:28 03:23:00 43% +21% -36% (15) 80
6 39 Laurel Wassner USA 09:44:31 09:52:41 00:55:43 05:28:05 03:15:43 68% +0% -32% (8) 73
7 41 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:49:27 10:11:07 00:56:51 05:19:54 03:27:42 22% +6% -72% (27) 109
8 46 Caroline St-Pierre CAN 09:57:34 10:20:51 00:56:51 05:36:38 03:19:04 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (132)
9 45 Caroline Martineau CAN 10:12:48 10:35:05 01:04:30 05:27:15 03:36:02 42% +36% -22% (5) (158)
10 42 Katy Cargiulo USA 10:48:22 10:58:14 01:05:45 05:55:05 03:42:32 100% +0% -0% (3) (166)
43 Michelle Harburg USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
44 Jessica Jones USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
47 Amy Vantassel USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
48 Amanda Wendorff USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Jordan Rapp: 29% (2-1)
  • Callum Millward: 15% (6-1)
  • Matthew Russell: 14% (6-1)
  • Paul Matthews: 12% (7-1)
  • Andrew Starykowicz: 8% (12-1)
  • Eric Limkemann: 6% (15-1)
  • Victor Del Corral: 6% (17-1)
  • Romain Guillaume: 4% (22-1)
  • Paul Ambrose: 4% (27-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Mary Beth Ellis: 48% (1-1)
  • Carrie Lester: 39% (2-1)
  • Amanda Stevens: 8% (11-1)
  • Uli Bromme: 2% (47-1)
  • Amber Ferreira: 2% (55-1)

KPR Situation

Here are tables with the top-ranked athletes in the KPR (after the races of August 6th and 7th) that still have a chance for a Kona slot:

Top KPR Male Race Participants

Bib Name Nation KPR points KPR races
3 Matthew Russell USA 6650 3+2 (720/180)
8 Callum Millward NZL 3580 2+3 (685/435)
4 Chris McDonald AUS 3525 3+2 (540/20)
7 Paul Matthews AUS 3225 1+3 (2455/145)
2 Romain Guillaume FRA 2535 2+3 (565/20)
1 Jordan Rapp USA 2510 3+1 (340/0)
6 Andrew Starykowicz USA 2500 1+3 (960/400)
9 Victor Del Corral ESP 2320 1+2
29 Jonathan Shearon USA 2115 3+2 (230/100)
10 Chris Leiferman USA 1615 0+3 (0/435)

Top KPR Female Race Participants

Bib Name Nation KPR points KPR races
35 Mary Beth Ellis USA 4900 2+3 (1900/180)
37 Carrie Lester AUS 4420 2+2
36 Amanda Stevens USA 2925 2+3 (720/145)
39 Laurel Wassner USA 2405 2+3 (340/75)
41 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 1775 1+3 (540/400)

Mary Beth Ellis has already raced in Maastricht (and won there basically securing a Kona slot) and Carrie Lester received a July slot. Both are unlikely to race before Kona.

Ironman Copenhagen 2016 (Aug 21st) – Predictions

IMCopenhagen

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2010 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:07:39 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 08:54:36
2011 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:11:15 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 08:52:42
2012 Aaron Farlow (AUS) 08:20:09 Camilla Pedersen (DEN) 09:12:27
2013 Jens Petersen-Bach (DEN) 08:12:41 Eva Wutti (AUT) 08:37:36
2014 Henrik Hyldelund (DEN) 08:03:39 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 08:53:33
2015 Guilherme Manocchio (BRA) 08:14:56 Michelle Vesterby (DEN) 08:59:49

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 00:48:16 04:26:43 02:54:15 08:14:56
2 Henrik Hyldelund DEN 00:48:13 04:27:07 03:02:31 08:21:51
3 Andreas Niedrig GER 00:47:02 04:21:47 03:14:03 08:27:37

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:50:45 04:52:22 03:12:10 08:59:49
2 Sofie Goos BEL 00:56:35 04:54:22 03:07:59 09:03:07
3 Sonja Tajsich GER 00:58:17 04:52:28 03:13:23 09:08:43

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:03:39 Henrik Hyldelund 2014-08-24
Swim overall 00:45:22 Stephen Bayliss 2011-08-01
Bike overall 04:16:41 Henrik Hyldelund 2014-08-24
Run overall 02:38:58 Mads Vittrup 2011-08-01
Total female 08:37:36 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18
Swim female 00:48:29 Ann Lønnberg 2011-08-01
Bike female 04:39:58 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18
Run female 03:00:51 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Copenhagen is 21:20.

Race Adjustments for IM Copenhagen

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2010 30:24 01:26 10:34 09:47 24 30:24 01:26 10:34 09:47
2011 24:27 02:52 11:18 06:34 28 27:26 02:09 10:56 08:11
2012 17:56 02:05 10:31 04:21 19 24:16 02:08 10:48 06:54
2013 26:28 00:51 15:25 07:19 30 24:49 01:49 11:57 07:00
2014 14:36 01:32 07:41 02:49 27 of 35 22:46 01:45 11:06 06:10
2015 14:09 00:57 14:41 03:14 26 of 30 21:20 01:37 11:42 05:41

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Copenhagen is a P-2000 race. It is an MPRO only race and has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Andreas Raelert GER 07:59:12 08:17:58 00:47:07 04:23:06 02:43:59 48% +0% -52% (19) 4
2 10 Patrik Nilsson SWE 08:06:49 08:38:00 00:47:24 04:24:59 02:49:26 9% +52% -39% (6) (49)
3 2 Cameron Brown NZL 08:10:25 08:34:19 00:49:11 04:29:33 02:46:41 54% +2% -44% (30) 38
4 3 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:16:08 08:41:56 00:48:43 04:34:40 02:47:45 68% +0% -32% (15) 60
5 6 Will Clarke GBR 08:16:24 08:50:42 00:48:52 04:35:08 02:47:25 22% +40% -38% (3) (92)
6 4 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:17:31 08:43:17 00:46:10 04:27:01 02:59:20 27% +28% -46% (11) 65
7 9 Per Bittner GER 08:21:53 08:42:03 00:47:57 04:31:43 02:57:13 58% +15% -27% (18) 62
8 19 Horst Reichel GER 08:22:00 09:00:30 00:47:18 04:32:42 02:57:00 7% +20% -73% (15) (127)
9 40 Fabio Carvalho BRA 08:22:42 09:21:50 00:46:06 04:40:18 02:51:19 1% +27% -71% (10) 195
10 13 Esben Hovgaard DEN 08:22:47 08:55:54 00:51:10 04:31:18 02:55:18 35% +25% -40% (9) 106
11 8 Alberto Casadei ITA 08:22:48 08:48:52 00:45:54 04:38:27 02:53:28 38% +16% -46% (7) 86
12 39 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:24:57 08:57:29 00:47:05 04:35:27 02:57:25 56% +3% -42% (19) 115
13 41 Mike Aigroz SUI 08:25:31 08:45:33 00:47:12 04:33:07 03:00:13 57% +3% -40% (22) 78
14 25 Matic Modic SLO 08:31:12 09:00:19 00:52:30 04:38:32 02:55:10 36% +54% -10% (7) 126
15 26 Gudmund Snilstveit NOR 08:32:13 09:04:54 00:54:58 04:30:02 03:02:13 36% +17% -47% (8) 145
16 5 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:32:47 08:52:45 00:46:02 04:39:11 03:02:34 36% +27% -36% (15) 95
17 29 Dejan Patrcevic CRO 08:35:20 08:55:01 00:50:41 04:41:03 02:58:36 76% +6% -17% (13) 101
18 32 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:36:44 09:02:06 00:57:51 04:36:25 02:57:28 87% +10% -3% (57) 130
19 27 David Naesvik SWE 08:38:02 09:07:40 00:53:19 04:34:10 03:05:33 65% +0% -35% (14) 152
20 42 Mikolaj Luft POL 08:45:00 09:17:35 00:48:44 04:42:06 03:09:10 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (186)
21 15 Freddy Lampret ZAF 08:45:09 09:42:13 00:50:39 04:38:42 03:10:47 1% +30% -69% (9) 249
22 7 Antony Costes FRA 08:47:28 09:30:49 00:47:20 04:31:38 03:23:31 30% +0% -70% (3) (226)
23 31 Andreas Borch DEN 08:48:05 09:17:26 00:47:35 04:42:17 03:13:12 47% +13% -40% (6) (186)
24 36 Kasper Ougaard DEN 08:51:41 09:28:34 00:57:22 04:43:03 03:06:17 9% +36% -54% (6) 218
25 11 Michael Louys BEL 08:57:37 09:34:49 01:00:23 04:43:53 03:08:21 59% +9% -32% (10) 232
26 34 Sam Clark NZL 09:04:42 09:37:01 00:55:54 04:50:32 03:13:16 42% +0% -58% (2) (238)
27 17 Peter Kern GER 09:11:35 10:08:55 00:54:15 04:48:09 03:24:11 2% +0% -98% (8) (279)
28 16 Emanuele Ciotti ITA 09:11:39 09:49:11 00:50:31 04:55:23 03:20:45 21% +23% -55% (4) (259)
29 33 Rene Jensen DEN 09:12:37 09:46:55 00:53:07 04:56:26 03:18:04 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (257)
30 18 Vincent Depuiset FRA 09:21:30 09:57:40 01:05:44 04:57:40 03:13:07 73% +12% -15% (8) 269
31 24 Lukas Polan CZE 09:23:59 10:09:44 01:00:48 04:58:51 03:19:20 21% +10% -69% (11) 280
32 28 Nis Lind DEN 09:31:27 10:06:50 00:58:06 04:55:41 03:32:40 80% +0% -20% (5) (277)
33 30 Gilian Oriet SUI 09:31:39 10:07:52 00:55:50 04:54:24 03:36:25 19% +9% -72% (11) 278
34 23 Jan Hron CZE 09:33:25 10:09:01 01:01:54 05:14:16 03:12:15 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (280)
35 22 Remmert Wielinga NED 09:49:19 10:52:28 01:10:07 04:52:56 03:41:16 7% +11% -82% (6) (297)
36 38 Michal Jalovecky CZE 10:19:40 10:47:31 01:01:24 05:42:48 03:30:27 78% +0% -22% (4) 295
37 20 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:17:38 12:16:37 01:09:58 05:39:30 04:23:10 30% +23% -47% (36) 302
12 Rasmus Fitzner DEN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
14 Markus Liebelt GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
21 Michael Smith Larsen DEN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
35 Robert Brundish GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
37 Olivier Esser BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
43 Patrick Hansen DEN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Andreas Raelert has been struggling with a stress fracture and has only recently started running again, but he needs an IM finish to qualify for Kona. Patrik Nilsson has had some great late season results, last year he won his home race at IM Sweden in record-setting time.

  • Andreas Raelert: 45% (1-1)
  • Patrik Nilsson: 25% (3-1)
  • Cameron Brown: 16% (5-1)
  • Igor Amorelli: 6% (15-1)
  • Horst Reichel: 2% (43-1)

KPR Situation

Here is a table with top-ranked athletes in the KPR (after the races of August 6th and 7th, but before 70.3 Wiesbaden) that still have a chance for a Kona slot:

Bib Name Nation KPR points KPR races
1 Andreas Raelert GER 7200 1+0
9 Per Bittner GER 3620 2+3 (1280/75)
3 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 3610 3+1 (685/0)
5 Harry Wiltshire GBR 3495 3+2 (720/135)
4 Igor Amorelli BRA 3320 2+3 (235/240)
7 Antony Costes FRA 3280 2+3 (85/750)
41 Mike Aigroz SUI 3200 3+2 (120/140)
2 Cameron Brown NZL 2865 1+2
40 Fabio Carvalho BRA 2460 1+3 (1670/135)
6 Will Clarke GBR 2310 1+1
39 Anton Blokhin UKR 1735 1+3 (1600/15)
32 Mike Schifferle SUI 1692 3+2 (405/7)

Per Bittner and Jens-Petersen Bach have already received July slots, at least Per is unlikely to race in Copenhagen. (Update: Jens has announced that he won’t be racing.) Andreas Raelert still needs an Ironman finish to be eligible for an August slot.

Ironman Sweden 2016 (Aug 20) – Predictions

IMSweden

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2012 Jan Raphael (GER) 08:04:01 Asa Lundstroem (SWE) 09:13:27
2013 Pedro Gomes (POR) 08:19:30 Jodie Swallow (GBR) 08:54:01
2014 Horst Reichel (GER) 08:13:01 Leanda Cave (GBR) 08:56:50
2015 Patrik Nilsson (SWE) 08:08:05 Astrid Stienen (GER) 09:12:27

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Patrik Nilsson SWE 00:52:11 04:27:12 02:45:48 08:08:05
2 Dougal Allan NZL 01:02:13 04:27:16 02:52:46 08:25:33
3 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 00:52:08 04:26:55 03:16:05 08:38:07

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Astrid Stienen GER 01:01:38 04:55:07 03:12:15 09:12:27
2 Camilla Lindholm SWE 01:08:48 04:59:30 03:06:14 09:18:05
3 Mette Pettersen Moe NOR 00:56:02 05:07:30 03:21:26 09:28:16

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:04:01 Jan Raphael 2012-08-18
Swim overall 00:48:15 Andi Boecherer 2012-08-18
Bike overall 04:24:20 Karl-Johan Danielsson 2012-08-18
Run overall 02:44:18 Viktor Zyemtsev 2014-08-16
Total female 08:54:01 Jodie Swallow 2013-08-17
Swim female 00:48:30 Jodie Swallow 2013-08-17
Bike female 04:48:42 Helene Malmkvist 2012-08-18
Run female 03:05:26 Leanda Cave 2014-08-16

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Sweden is 16:26.

Race Adjustments for IM Sweden

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2012 31:10 00:11 23:23 05:45 29 31:10 00:11 23:23 05:45
2013 13:46 -00:09 09:01 07:29 30 22:28 00:01 16:12 06:37
2014 14:54 -00:44 06:50 07:02 24 of 27 19:57 -00:14 13:05 06:45
2015 05:55 -03:11 02:29 04:02 19 of 21 16:26 -00:58 10:26 06:04

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Sweden is a P-2000 race. It is a WPRO only race and has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 15 Kristin Moeller GER 09:23:04 09:38:07 01:04:50 05:13:36 02:59:38 73% +11% -16% (19) 45
2 2 Natascha Badmann SUI 09:23:31 09:36:16 01:02:42 04:57:36 03:18:13 51% +0% -49% (18) 41
3 1 Verena Walter GER 09:31:03 09:57:27 01:00:53 05:05:11 03:19:59 40% +46% -14% (6) 83
4 13 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 09:31:25 09:45:33 01:01:10 05:09:13 03:16:02 80% +20% -0% (10) 60
5 14 Carolin Lehrieder GER 09:31:32 09:57:37 00:55:39 05:13:43 03:17:10 30% +23% -46% (6) 84
6 3 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 09:32:31 10:02:44 00:56:48 05:19:32 03:11:10 44% +40% -17% (11) 95
7 5 Lucie Reed CZE 09:35:22 09:50:25 00:52:41 05:16:20 03:21:21 52% +0% -47% (24) 66
8 7 Rahel Bellinga NED 10:04:52 10:31:32 01:06:01 05:08:17 03:45:34 46% +30% -25% (6) 155
9 12 Nicole Woysch GER 10:05:18 10:54:33 00:59:49 05:18:58 03:41:31 22% +3% -75% (21) (165)
9 Julia Montgomery SWE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
10 Jessica Ahlund SWE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Female Race Participants

Verena Walter, Saleta Castro and Dimity-Lee Duke have already secured their Kona slots and are unlikely to race.

  • Natascha Badmann: 22% (4-1)
  • Kristin Moeller: 20% (4-1)
  • Verena Walter: 19% (4-1)
  • Carolin Lehrieder: 15% (6-1)
  • Saleta Castro Nogueira: 12% (7-1)
  • Dimity-Lee Duke: 8% (11-1)
  • Lucie Reed: 4% (25-1)

KPR Situation

Here are the top ranked participants in the KPR rankings (after the races on August 6th and 7th):

Bib Name Nation KPR points KPR races
3 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 4645 3+2 (720/115)
1 Verena Walter GER 4600 3+1 (405/0)
13 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 4215 3+2 (960/320)
2 Natascha Badmann SUI 3325 3+2 (230/135)
15 Kristin Moeller GER 3315 3+1 (170/0)
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