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Ironman Netherlands 2016 (July 31st) – Predictions

IMMaastricht

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2015 Bas Diederen (NED) 08:27:18 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 09:39:24

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Bas Diederen NED 00:46:22 04:43:33 02:51:59 08:27:18
2 Mark Oude Bennink NED 00:46:19 04:48:30 02:54:58 08:35:15
3 Alberto Casadei ITA 00:46:20 04:51:50 02:54:34 08:38:04

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 00:56:26 05:16:10 03:21:17 09:39:24
2 Sarissa De Vries NED 00:52:24 05:25:23 03:34:10 09:58:44
3 Carla Van Rooijen NED 01:09:18 05:32:16 03:16:20 10:04:38

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:27:18 Bas Diederen 2015-08-02
Swim overall 00:46:17 Martijn Dekker 2015-08-02
Bike overall 04:43:33 Bas Diederen 2015-08-02
Run overall 02:51:59 Bas Diederen 2015-08-02
Total female 09:39:24 Yvonne Van Vlerken 2015-08-02
Swim female 00:52:24 Sarissa De Vries 2015-08-02
Bike female 05:16:10 Yvonne Van Vlerken 2015-08-02
Run female 03:16:20 Carla Van Rooijen 2015-08-02

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Netherlands is – 05:33.

Race Adjustments for IM Netherlands

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2015 -05:33 00:41 -02:40 01:09 25 of 32 -05:33 00:41 -02:40 01:09

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Netherlands is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Bas Diederen NED 08:30:29 08:35:15 00:47:12 04:42:05 02:56:12 36% +8% -55% (16) 39
2 28 Markus Fachbach GER 08:42:47 08:37:06 00:49:26 04:45:38 03:02:43 83% +0% -17% (17) 47
3 20 Mark Oude Bennink NED 08:46:34 09:01:31 00:47:19 04:53:15 03:01:00 22% +37% -41% (6) 132
4 30 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:49:01 08:47:41 00:47:26 04:47:01 03:09:35 32% +12% -55% (10) 78
5 11 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 08:56:16 08:53:49 00:52:34 04:53:00 03:05:42 94% +6% -0% (6) 98
6 15 Diego Van Looy BEL 08:58:23 09:03:36 01:04:36 04:52:41 02:56:05 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (144)
7 8 Mike Schifferle SUI 09:06:02 09:02:37 01:00:03 04:55:27 03:05:32 85% +11% -4% (55) 137
8 13 Wouter Monchy BEL 09:15:21 09:21:03 00:51:04 05:03:29 03:15:49 27% +73% -0% (3) 199
9 5 Lucky Berlage BEL 09:15:31 09:10:36 00:56:10 05:02:19 03:12:03 100% +0% -0% (3) (166)
10 10 Darren Jenkins AUS 09:29:00 09:24:25 01:05:57 05:11:49 03:06:15 63% +0% -37% (8) 207
11 12 Michael Louys BEL 09:29:47 09:29:08 01:02:59 05:03:06 03:18:42 69% +10% -21% (9) 221
12 23 Sam Clark NZL 09:32:56 09:37:01 00:57:40 05:09:31 03:20:46 42% +0% -58% (2) (242)
13 18 David Jilek CZE 09:39:18 09:39:13 00:57:58 05:09:12 03:27:07 64% +21% -15% (7) 248
14 27 Lukas Polan CZE 09:52:50 09:56:55 01:02:42 05:18:13 03:26:55 30% +15% -55% (9) 271
15 7 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 10:08:18 10:12:19 01:00:51 05:31:33 03:30:54 66% +4% -30% (20) 285
16 6 Rob Bobbaers BEL 10:14:26 10:14:22 01:01:38 05:16:18 03:51:31 100% +0% -0% (2) (286)
17 26 Remmert Wielinga NED 10:19:52 10:52:28 01:12:24 05:12:23 03:50:05 7% +11% -82% (6) (297)
18 16 David Krupicka CZE 10:59:11 10:59:26 01:04:37 05:32:56 04:16:38 100% +0% -0% (2) (298)
19 21 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:52:46 12:09:19 01:12:14 06:01:57 04:33:35 32% +25% -43% (35) 303
4 Milan Brons NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
9 Omar Brons NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
14 Thomas Leboucher FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
19 Michael Van Cleven BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
22 Olivier Esser BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 62 Daniela Ryf SUI 08:59:50 08:55:12 00:51:04 04:58:08 03:05:38 55% +23% -22% (7) 1
2 57 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:28:54 09:17:57 00:51:04 05:11:20 03:21:31 93% +0% -7% (17) 13
3 56 Tine Deckers BEL 09:38:11 09:28:53 00:58:06 05:11:08 03:23:57 66% +7% -27% (19) 26
4 60 Katja Konschak GER 09:49:58 09:54:16 00:53:52 05:34:52 03:16:15 51% +35% -15% (17) 81
5 51 Alexandra Tondeur BEL 09:52:19 09:52:32 01:01:11 05:29:44 03:16:24 100% +0% -0% (2) (76)
6 58 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 09:56:07 10:05:09 00:55:14 05:34:36 03:21:17 31% +49% -20% (10) 100
7 52 Sarissa De Vries NED 10:01:39 10:10:31 00:52:48 05:27:59 03:35:53 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (110)
8 61 Kate Comber GBR 10:06:26 10:06:14 00:53:48 05:36:05 03:31:34 100% +0% -0% (2) (102)
9 55 Tineke Van den Berg NED 10:07:32 10:12:19 01:04:57 05:23:03 03:34:32 63% +13% -24% (5) 113
10 53 Alena Stevens SVK 10:27:43 10:24:38 01:01:46 05:46:32 03:34:26 65% +23% -12% (5) 146
54 Danne Boterenbrood n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Bas Diederen: 60% (1-1)
  • Markus Fachbach: 17% (5-1)
  • Mark Oude Bennink: 11% (9-1)
  • Igor Amorelli: 7% (14-1)
  • Erik-Simon Strijk: 3% (36-1)

Female Race Participants

There are a number of females on the start list that are unlikely to race if they already qualified for Kona in the July cutoff that happens before IM Netherlands. This includes Daniela Ryf, Tine Deckers, Katja Konschak and possibly Alexandra Tondeur. If all of these end up not racing, then Mary Beth Ellis is the race favorite, and a win should secure an August Kona slot for her.

  • Daniela Ryf: 69% (1-1)
  • Mary Beth Ellis: 18% (4-1)
  • Tine Deckers: 8% (11-1)
  • Katja Konschak: 3% (34-1)

KPR Situation Before the Last July Races

Update July 20th: In the latest startlists a few names have been removed. I have crossed them out in the tables below.

The race for the first round of Professional Kona slots is almost over – the July qualifying period that decides 28 female and 40 male slots ends on July 24th. There are only three more Ironman races (Switzerland, Lake Placid as WPRO only and Whistler as MPRO only) and one more 70.3 race (Calgary) before the first cutoff. This post looks at the final slots to be decided based on the rankings before the last weekend and the start lists posted on the Ironman website.

After the races are over, I’ll post the unofficial rankings based on my calculations as soon as possible. (The women’s ranking is already up.)

Women’s Qualifying

Assuming that Heather Jackson validates her slot by finishing in Lake Placid, Ariane Monticelli is currently in the last points qualifying spot. Here’s a table looking at the athletes close the cutoff and those on the startlists with a chance to overtake her:

Rank Name Country Points Races Race Plan Needed
24 Walter, Verena DEU 4.600 3+1 (405/435)
25 Tondeur, Alexandra BEL 4.530 2+3 (1280/435)
26 Gerdes, Beth USA 4.490 2+3 (1375/280)
27 Lester, Carrie AUS 4.420 2+2
28 Monticeli, Ariane BRA 4.335 2+3 (340/500) IM Zürich
29 Robertson, Jodie USA 4.305 1+3 (3400/240) 70.3 Calgary,
IM Lake Placid
3rd,
14th
33 Bilham, Emma CHE 3.755 1+3 (1600/240) IM Zürich 5th
35 Williamson, Kelly USA 3.215 2+1 IM Lake Placid 3rd
36 Grohmann, Katharina DEU 3.205 3+1 (855/320) IM Zürich Win
37 Moeller, Kristin DEU 3.145 2+1 IM Zürich 3rd
38 Badmann, Natascha CHE 3.095 2+2 IM Zürich 3rd
47 Herlbauer, Michaela AUT 2.585 2+2 IM Zürich Win

(Please note that “Needed” is the minimum result needed for qualifying, however it does not assure a slot when others add points as well.)

With Daniela Ryf also on the start line in Zürich, here’s my best guess at who is going to receive one of the open five July slots:

  • Verena Walter remains in the Top 28 (1). (It is possible but quite unlikely for her to drop out of the Top 28.)
  • Jodie Robertson should be able to finish at least in the Top 10 in Lake Placid 3 in Calgary (2).
  • Zürich is the race with the most athletes looking for slots, with probably two athletes racing well enough for a slot – possibly Ariane Monticelli and one of Emma, Kristin and Natascha (3 & 4).
  • The last slot would then go to Alexandra Tondeur – but she could be overtaken when more of the Zürich athletes finish well (5).

This would mean that Beth Gerdes and Carrie Lester would drop out of the July slots and that they would have to hope for a rolldown slot.

Men’s Qualifying

Assuming that Andy Potts validates his slot by finishing in Lake Placid, David Plese is currently in the last points qualifying spot. Here’s a table looking at the athletes close the cutoff and those on the startlists with a chance to overtake him:

Rank Name Country Points Races Race Plan Needed
31 Vistica, Andrej HRV 3.770 3+2 (720/30) IM Zürich
32 Rana, Ivan ESP 3.745 2+1
33 Chevrot, Denis FRA 3.735 2+2
34 Bittner, Per DEU 3.620 2+3 (1280/75)
35 Petersen-Bach, Jens DNK 3.610 3+1 (685/115)
36 Millward, Callum NZL 3.580 2+3 (685/435) IM Whistler
37 Wiltshire, Harry GBR 3.495 3+2 (720/135) IM Zürich
38 Billard, Bertrand FRA 3.490 2+2 IM Zürich
39 Chrabot, Matt USA 3.470 2+3 (235/345)
40 Plese, David SVN 3.415 3+2 (90/100) IM Zürich
41 Matthews, Paul AUS 3.225 1+3 (2455/145) 70.3 Calgary 2nd
43 Bracht, Timo DEU 2.995 2+2 IM Zürich 6th
46 Gomes, Pedro PRT 2.797 2+1 IM Whistler 5th
48 Zyemtsev, Viktor UKR 2.575 1+2 IM Whistler 4th
49 Aigroz, Mike CHE 2.555 2+3 (120/75) IM Whistler 4th
54 Carvalho, Fabio BRA 2.460 1+3 (1670/135) IM Zürich 4th
55 Van Berkel, Jan CHE 2.455 2+2 IM Zürich 3rd
56 Wurtele, Trevor CAN 2.445 1+3 (540/625) IM Whistler 3rd
62 Schildknecht, Ronnie CHE 2.190 2+0 IM Zürich 3rd
63 Brader, Christian DEU 2.099 3+1 (405/9) IM Zürich 2nd
66 Daerr, Justin USA 2.030 2+1 IM Whistler 2nd
84 Collins, Benjamin USA 1.635 2+3 (60/125) IM Whistler Win

Based on the available start lists, here’s my best guess at who is going to receive one of the open ten July slots:

  • The athletes currently in #31 to #34 (Andrej, Ivan, Denis and Per) will remain in the Top 40
    (1 to 4).
  • Three of the Whistler athletes will finish well enough for a slot – maybe Callum, Pedro and Viktor Mike (5 to 7).
  • At least two of the Zürich athletes will finish well. If I had to pick two, I’d go with Ronnie Schildknecht and Timo Bracht (8 and 9).
  • The last slot should be decided Jens Petersen-Bach and one other Zürich athlete (10).

But there are so many different scenarios that it’s still possible for any of the athletes in the above table to get a slot or drop out of the slot ranks– it’ll be exciting racing on Sunday!

Challenge Roth 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

The Roth course is ideal for fast times, and this year the weather was good as well – fresh in the morning with the sun quickly coming out,  temperatures around 28°C by the time the Pros started their run and absolutely no rain. While a number of athletes had great races (including of course the winners Jan Frodeno and Daniela Ryf with their fantastic times) the overall times were much in line with what I have analyzed for Roth before: The overall adjustment of 19:46 leads to a new course rating of 18:54, and the individual adjustments for the swim, bike and run legs were “Roth normal” as well – and very much in line with 2011, the year that Chrissie Wellington and Andreas Raelert set the world records.

Of course the highlight of the race was Jan Frodeno setting a new world record on the Ironman distance: His 7:35:39 was almost six minutes quicker than Andi Raelert’s time from 2011. But there were a number of other notable records as well:

  • Jan’s swim time of 45:22 beat the old Pro course record of Pete Jacobs from 2009.
  • Jan’s 4:08:07 is the fastest bike time of 2016, also beating the course record set by Andrew Starykowicz last year by a minute.
  • Daniela’s bike time of 4:31:29 is the fastest ever female bike time over the Ironman-distance. (The previous fastest time was 4:35:29 by Caroline Steffen at IM Melbourne 2012.)
  • Jan’s 2:39 run was the fastest run of 2016, but only for 20 minutes until Joe Skipper posted a 2:38:52 – fastest run of 2016 and also a new course record.
  • Joe Skipper’s 7:56:23 is a new British Ironman record and also the first sub-8 by a British athlete.
  • Cyril Vienot’s 8:02:44 is a new French Ironman record.

I’ve had a great time following the race in Roth, enjoying the race and it’s fantastic atmosphere. Anyone who has not ridden the Solarer Berg before, have a look at fourth place finisher Laura Siddall riding through the crowd, and put this race on your bucket list!

Laura Solarer Berg

Male Race Results

Frodo Swim

It was clear from the start that Jan Frodeno wanted to really go for the world record as he had announced before the race. He quickly swam away from the field and by the end of the swim he was already more than 90 seconds ahead. He continued to put time into the others, and even even a small crash when he overcooked a corner on a downhill couldn’t slow him down. By the time he reached T2 he had added almost another ten minutes to his lead and was well ahead of world record pace. He continued to push on the run (posting a 2:39, another personal best) and broke the world record by almost six minutes. A fantastic performance by Jan, and one that shows that he’ll be the clear favorite to defend his title in Kona.

Joe RunSecond place went to Joe Skipper who finally managed to put together a good bike ride and a great run. He was riding in the third bike group with Cyril Viennot and some others, and while a 4:21 is not slow he still lost some time to the second group with Nils Frommhold, Tyler Butterfield and Nick Kastelein. On the run Joe was reeling in one athlete after another and even managed to overtake Nils in the last few kilometers to claim second place in a well executed race.

Nils RunThird place went to defending Champion Nils Frommhold. A sub-8 is nothing to be ashamed of, but Nils seemed disappointed that Jan proved he is a step or two above everyone else. Compared to the great races that Frodo and Joe had, Nils’s day pales a little bit. He quickly lost contact to Jan on the swim, then rode with Tyler and Nick but the gap to Jan increased with every split. Nils then had a good 2:48 run but couldn’t make any inroads into Frodo’s lead. Then Joe Skipper took second place from him just a few k’s from the finish. I still think that Nils should be proud of his race, especially after his 29th place in Kona and his DNF in Texas he had a solid race even when things didn’t go quite the way he was hoping for. It’s now time for him to plan his second half of the 2016 season – and he is looking forward to hist first child in November. With extra “daddy power” you can expect him to be back in Kona 2017!

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Jan Frodeno GER 00:45:22 04:08:07 02:39:18 07:35:39 -19:00 EUR 20000
2 Joe Skipper GBR 00:52:36 04:21:12 02:38:52 07:56:23 -19:45 EUR 11000
3 Nils Frommhold GER 00:46:59 04:17:34 02:48:50 07:57:49 -05:25 EUR 6500
4 Cyril Viennot FRA 00:52:19 04:21:59 02:45:16 08:02:44 -13:47 EUR 4000
5 Nick Kastelein AUS 00:46:57 04:19:31 02:56:02 08:05:03 n/a EUR 2750
6 Tyler Butterfield BMU 00:48:56 04:17:18 03:08:46 08:18:39 01:35 EUR 1500
7 Fabian Rahn GER 00:55:44 04:33:04 02:47:56 08:20:11 n/a EUR 1100
8 Per Bittner GER 00:49:00 04:32:03 02:57:25 08:21:28 -02:29 EUR 950
9 Jan Raphael GER 00:48:58 04:32:28 03:00:40 08:24:55 04:52 EUR 800
10 Tobias Heining GER 00:48:58 04:34:14 03:00:18 08:26:43 n/a EUR 750
11 Marcel Bischof GER 00:55:20 04:38:37 02:50:33 08:27:48 -23:49
12 Jordan Bryden CAN 00:48:22 04:34:45 03:01:35 08:28:38 -52:10
13 Julien Marcq FRA 00:53:37 04:41:51 02:58:35 08:37:21 n/a
14 Thomas Naasz NED 00:55:20 04:40:01 03:00:01 08:39:12 -23:17
15 Henry Beck GER 00:48:54 04:32:34 03:23:36 08:48:30 -1:08:36
16 Christian Jais GER 00:55:17 04:34:54 03:20:09 08:53:45 -24:39
17 Ivan Jezko SVK 00:57:09 04:46:24 03:09:34 08:56:42 -20:25
18 Daniel Mugica Corrales ESP 00:50:56 04:58:05 03:12:12 09:04:21 n/a
19 Tjardo Visser NED 00:50:59 04:55:02 03:18:53 09:07:42 17:53
20 Xavier Diepart BEL 00:55:41 04:54:19 03:15:22 09:09:13 22:53
21 Sergio De La Sotilla ESP 00:58:26 05:06:34 03:15:22 09:26:26 n/a
22 Rob Bobbaers BEL 01:01:14 04:54:42 03:42:21 09:43:08 04:32
23 Jeremy Howard USA 00:52:17 05:19:18 03:32:01 09:47:47 06:30
24 Robert Duncan USA 01:00:42 05:20:25 03:41:58 10:08:09 n/a
25 Tomas Racek CZE 01:00:48 05:34:38 04:27:01 11:06:19 25:25
Thomas Hellriegel GER 00:49:01 04:42:03 DNF
Santi Pellejero Gacia ESP 00:48:55 05:19:57 DNF

Female Race Results

Dani BikeDaniela was as dominating in the women’s race as Jan was in the men’s race – both won by more than 20 minutes ahead of second place. After the frustrating DNF in Frankfurt only two weeks prior to Roth, Dani had a race and result she could enjoy immensely. The fastest time in all three legs and her first marathon under 3 hours lead to a fantastic 8:22, missing Chrissie’s record by only 4 minutes. After the bike she was even under world record pace, something probably no one expected before the race. Dani can be more optimistic about the rest of the season – any doubts after Frankfurt have been blown away with this result. She still has to validate her Kona slot (likely in Zürich next weekend), but after that she’ll focus on defending her 70.3 and Ironman World Champion titles.

As last year second place went to Carrie Lester.  In the pre-race coverage she was hardly mentioned, the focus was initially on a “Yvonne vs. Anja” duel, then shifted to “Daniela vs. Yvonne”. Carrie didn’t seem to be too concerned and was just focused on a good race. She had a good swim, reaching T1 with Michelle Vesterby and Anja Beranek. When Michelle had to drop back with mechanical issues and Yvonne had ridden up to Carrie and Anja, the three were riding together for most of the bike course and reached T2 within a minute of each other.

Run Cazza Yvonne

Anja quickly fell back in the first half of the run and Yvonne did her best to chase down Daniela, but Carrie didn’t loose too much time.. When Yvonne started to struggle as well, Carrie ran by her and took a very satisfying second place with the best relative performance of the day. Yvonne was vomiting towards the end of the run and had to dig deep to stay in third place, posting her 11th sub-9 time.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:49:10 04:31:29 02:57:40 08:22:04 -19:14 EUR 20000
2 Carrie Lester AUS 00:52:23 04:42:50 03:03:38 08:42:13 -28:15 EUR 11000
3 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 00:55:14 04:40:29 03:10:58 08:49:35 -08:18 EUR 6500
4 Laura Siddall GBR 00:55:30 04:47:32 03:05:41 08:51:59 -26:05 EUR 4000
5 Anja Beranek GER 00:52:24 04:43:10 03:21:56 09:00:20 00:51 EUR 2750
6 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:52:29 04:53:29 03:15:52 09:04:32 01:29 EUR 1500
7 Jessica Fleming AUS 00:55:23 04:58:54 03:19:06 09:16:54 -10:47 EUR 1100
8 Erika Csomor HUN 00:57:35 04:58:43 03:24:50 09:24:52 11:43 EUR 950
9 Michelle Duffield AUS 00:55:35 05:10:35 03:23:15 09:33:42 -19:43 EUR 800
10 Jenny Fletcher CAN 00:55:13 05:06:44 03:29:40 09:36:01 n/a EUR 750
11 Jenny Latham GBR 00:55:51 05:25:35 03:14:32 09:40:09 n/a
12 Carla Van Rooijen NED 01:14:13 05:10:34 03:23:18 09:52:02 02:28
13 Fabiola Corona MEX 00:55:14 05:20:23 03:38:11 09:56:38 -10:52
14 Caroline Gregory USA 00:55:36 05:40:49 04:00:21 10:40:01 49:15
Kathryn Haesner NZL 00:55:46 05:17:35 DNF
Monique Grossrieder SUI 01:00:49 05:22:02 DNF

Ironman UK 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

The Bolton course continues to be very tough, especially the bike has been very slow again this year. A bike adjustment of -18:18 (and a new bike course rating of -15:31) is among the slowest courses on the circuit, only Lanzarote and Wales are even slower. Lucy Gossage still managed to post a new female bike course record of 5:15:04, improving her 5:22 from 2013. (Tine Deckers was also under the old bike course record.) Compared to last year the overall times were a bit faster, an adjustment of -13:22 lead to winning times of 8:41 (male) and 9:26 (female) – slow compared to other courses, but a bit faster than last year.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 00:51:19 04:52:35 02:50:09 08:41:13 -15:48 US$ 10000
2 Markus Thomschke GER 00:51:21 04:52:38 02:59:13 08:50:03 -15:23 US$ 5000
3 Andrej Vistica CRO 00:53:25 05:04:50 02:53:36 08:58:50 06:13 US$ 3250
4 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 00:51:14 04:56:46 03:05:32 08:59:48 -11:12 US$ 2500
5 Harry Wiltshire GBR 00:45:35 05:11:19 03:03:05 09:05:35 -01:00 US$ 1750
6 Patrick Evoe USA 00:54:10 05:10:09 03:03:15 09:14:33 03:40 US$ 1250
7 Fraser Cartmell GBR 00:49:01 05:12:03 03:16:57 09:24:31 22:14 US$ 750
8 Chris Whitcombe GBR 00:48:52 05:32:56 03:25:25 09:55:00 n/a US$ 500
9 Graeme Stewart GBR 00:51:16 05:21:13 03:43:17 10:06:20 46:13
10 Eneko Elosegui ESP 00:59:16 05:32:03 03:30:57 10:09:21 21:19
Romain Guillaume FRA 00:45:37 04:54:41 DNF
Peter Kern GER 00:53:26 05:30:36 DNF

Kirill and Markus secured their Kona slots by finishing on the top spots. Andrej Vistica and Harry Wiltshire improved their totals, but at least Harry is likely to drop beyond #40 after next weekend’s races. Rom Guillaume was also looking for a good result, but after his DNF he needs to re-asses his Kona plans.

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Lucy Gossage GBR 00:56:13 05:15:04 03:08:20 09:26:05 -05:33 US$ 10000
2 Tine Deckers BEL 00:55:19 05:20:00 03:22:28 09:45:21 02:22 US$ 5000
3 Katja Konschak GER 00:54:02 05:53:44 03:14:44 10:13:18 04:20 US$ 3250
4 Alyssa Godesky USA 00:58:45 05:57:12 03:18:44 10:23:42 -07:25 US$ 2500
5 Vicky Gill GBR 01:07:21 06:04:39 04:55:14 12:16:25 1:45:26 US$ 1750
Kristin Moeller GER 01:01:24 DNF

Winner Lucy Gossage was already safe for Kona before the UK race, and Tine Deckers scored well enough to move into “safe territory” for a July slot. Only two weeks after Frankfurt Katja Konschak raced another IM and is now 100% certain of a July slot.

Ironman Canada 2016 (July 24th) – Predictions

IMCanadaUpdate July 20th: In the latest startlist a few names have been removed. I have crossed them out in the predictions table below.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2013 Trevor Wurtele (CAN) 08:39:33 Uli Bromme (USA) 09:28:13
2014 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:16:10 Bree Wee (USA) 09:46:58
2015 Viktor Zyemtsev (USA) 08:49:46 Danielle Mack (USA) 09:46:19

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Viktor Zyemtsev USA 00:53:03 04:58:32 02:54:28 08:49:46
2 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:48:40 04:56:18 03:01:24 08:50:30
3 Justin Daerr USA 00:53:02 04:58:35 02:59:13 08:54:45

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Danielle Mack USA 01:01:49 05:23:53 03:16:09 09:46:19
2 Melanie McQuaid CAN 00:57:47 05:22:43 03:23:44 09:48:23
3 Jen Annett CAN 01:02:01 05:32:14 03:16:03 09:55:06

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:16:10 Marino Vanhoenacker 2014-07-27
Swim overall 00:48:22 Barrett Brandon 2015-07-26
Bike overall 04:31:34 Marino Vanhoenacker 2014-07-27
Run overall 02:40:34 Jeff Symonds 2014-07-27
Total female 09:28:13 Uli Bromme 2013-08-25
Swim female 00:53:09 Anna Cleaver 2014-07-27
Bike female 05:13:51 Uli Bromme 2013-08-25
Run female 03:06:53 Uli Bromme 2013-08-25

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Canada is – 03:36.

Race Adjustments for IM Canada

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2013 01:25 00:02 -00:39 02:59 24 01:25 00:02 -00:39 02:59
2014 03:08 -00:04 -03:19 -00:21 15 of 17 02:17 -00:01 -01:59 01:19
2015 -15:22 -00:06 -14:14 -03:02 23 of 33 -03:36 -00:03 -06:04 -00:08

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Canada is a P-2000 race. It will be an MPRO-only race and has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 3 Andy Potts USA 08:25:41 08:22:46 00:46:43 04:42:27 02:51:31 100% +0% -0% (13) 8
2 9 Callum Millward NZL 08:33:00 08:26:16 00:48:15 04:46:39 02:53:07 74% +0% -26% (4) 17
3 7 Michael Weiss AUT 08:33:15 08:32:02 00:53:45 04:35:52 02:58:37 91% +9% -0% (14) 25
4 1 Viktor Zyemtsev USA 08:35:14 08:33:02 00:50:44 04:49:21 02:50:08 80% +0% -20% (19) 29
5 6 Maik Twelsiek GER 08:41:28 08:37:34 00:50:18 04:36:47 03:09:23 78% +8% -14% (29) 50
6 2 Trevor Wurtele CAN 08:42:50 08:52:03 00:52:43 04:44:58 03:00:09 41% +36% -23% (17) 96
7 5 Paul Ambrose AUS 08:43:16 09:00:17 00:49:47 04:44:44 03:03:46 41% +4% -56% (20) 127
8 4 Justin Daerr USA 08:45:37 08:50:23 00:52:35 04:50:17 02:57:44 56% +13% -31% (28) 90
9 13 Pedro Gomes POR 08:45:56 08:40:43 00:51:54 04:52:24 02:56:39 65% +5% -30% (22) 57
10 14 Mike Aigroz SUI 08:49:43 08:50:54 00:48:23 04:51:44 03:04:36 51% +3% -46% (21) 93
11 28 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:54:27 08:55:08 00:53:24 04:48:45 03:07:18 57% +12% -31% (13) 103
12 10 Ben Collins USA 08:56:19 08:58:11 00:48:49 04:53:35 03:08:56 100% +0% -0% (2) (118)
13 19 Derek Garcia USA 08:58:26 09:04:39 00:53:09 04:50:54 03:09:23 81% +7% -12% (10) 151
14 11 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 08:58:31 09:11:37 00:54:08 04:56:28 03:02:55 59% +40% -1% (8) 171
15 8 Swen Sundberg GER 09:02:41 08:59:02 00:52:45 04:54:07 03:10:49 55% +1% -44% (17) 121
16 16 Simon Billeau FRA 09:06:47 09:03:29 00:54:28 04:49:49 03:17:29 43% +0% -57% (17) 142
17 12 Elliot Holtham CAN 09:07:02 09:13:36 00:53:10 05:00:01 03:08:50 22% +42% -37% (6) 181
18 29 Nathan Champness CAN 09:21:08 09:24:56 00:56:58 04:55:39 03:23:32 100% +0% -0% (2) (212)
19 27 Anthony Toth CAN 09:28:35 09:29:45 00:57:39 05:08:38 03:17:18 20% +11% -69% (17) 226
20 26 Matthew Sheeks USA 09:30:24 09:38:11 00:52:40 04:26:37 04:06:07 22% +4% -74% (9) 247
21 17 Scott Bradley USA 09:30:47 09:34:57 01:02:02 05:01:11 03:22:34 100% +0% -0% (2) (241)
22 20 Dylan Gleeson CAN 09:31:06 09:36:24 00:54:45 05:05:58 03:25:23 47% +53% -0% (2) (244)
23 24 Adam O’Meara CAN 09:32:26 09:37:12 00:54:35 05:16:01 03:16:50 45% +26% -29% (14) 244
24 22 Andrew Langfield USA 09:48:21 09:56:12 00:57:27 05:25:59 03:19:55 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (275)
25 21 Elmar Heger GER 09:51:49 10:03:02 00:56:25 05:09:20 03:41:04 44% +23% -33% (6) 284
26 25 Matt Shanks USA 09:55:35 09:57:46 00:59:29 05:22:56 03:28:09 100% +0% -0% (2) (279)
27 18 Andrew Fast USA 10:28:50 10:38:34 00:58:13 05:22:42 04:02:55 19% +28% -52% (4) (297)
23 Jeff Manson CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Andy Potts is the clear favorite, he has always been racing well in his summer Ironman races. Behind him it’s unclear who will race, some have already secured their Kona slots or are very close and may skip Whistler to prepare for Kona:

  • Andy Potts: 52% (1-1)
  • Viktor Zyemtsev: 22% (4-1)
  • Michael Weiss: 9% (10-1)
  • Callum Millward: 7% (14-1)
  • Justin Daerr: 4% (26-1)

KPR Situation

Andy Potts still needs his validation race, while Michael Weiss (not shown) is already safe and unlikely to race.

KPR_Whistler

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