Male Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Marino Vanhoenacker	BEL	08:14:36	08:19:28	4
2	Cameron Brown	NZL	08:27:14	08:32:13	14
3	Marko Albert	EST	08:30:21	08:35:22	23
4	Terenzo Bozzone	NZL	08:33:52	08:38:55	28
5	Aaron Farlow	AUS	08:37:43	08:42:49	40
6	Torsten Abel	GER	08:41:14	08:46:22	61
7	Keegan Williams	NZL	08:46:50	08:52:01	94
8	Simon Billeau	FRA	08:48:10	08:53:22	99
9	Jamie Whyte	NZL	08:49:22	08:54:35	107
10	Stefan Schmid	GER	08:55:44	09:01:00	141
11	Guy Crawford	AUS	09:06:30	09:11:53	210
12	Simon Cochrane	NZL	09:13:02	09:18:28	266
13	Romain Guillaume	FRA	09:20:39	09:26:10	327
14	James Bowstead	NZL	09:31:46	09:37:24	403
15	Eneko Elosegui	ESP	09:40:04	09:45:46	466
16	Daiki Masuda	JPN	09:59:38	10:05:32	593
17	James Cotter	USA	10:01:28	10:07:23	608
18	Timothy Reed	AUS	n/a	unrated	n/a
19	Greg Close	USA	n/a	unrated	n/a
20	Shanon Stallard	NZL	n/a	unrated	n/a
21	Yu Shinozaki	JPN	n/a	unrated	n/a
22	Sean Donnelly	GER	n/a	unrated	n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Joanna Lawn	NZL	09:31:22	09:36:59	24
2	Gina Crawford	NZL	09:32:29	09:38:07	30
3	Meredith Kessler	USA	09:32:37	09:38:15	32
4	Jessica Jacobs	USA	09:41:42	09:47:25	51
5	Candice Hammond	NZL	09:47:15	09:53:02	67
6	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	09:51:43	09:57:32	77
7	Belinda Harper	NZL	10:04:33	10:10:30	121
8	Rachael Paxton	AUS	n/a	unrated	n/a

Results for Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Austria	2011-07-03	07:45:58	08:10:12	08:19:28	1
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	08:13:14	08:15:01	08:21:21	3
IM Austria	2010-07-04	07:52:05	08:07:29	08:22:37	1
IM Austria	2009-07-05	08:01:38	08:16:17	08:26:02	1
IM South Africa	2009-04-05	08:17:32	08:28:25	08:28:01	1
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	08:53:14	08:52:05	08:27:56	22
IM Austria	2008-07-13	08:06:11	08:22:59	08:21:44	1
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	08:23:31	08:23:42	08:21:20	5
IM Austria	2007-07-08	08:06:39	08:16:39	08:20:32	1
IM Hawaii	2006-10-21	08:24:17	08:22:04	08:22:19	6
IM Austria	2006-07-16	08:04:29	08:15:32	08:22:28	1
IM Florida	2005-11-05	08:28:26	08:30:56	08:30:56	1

Results for Cameron Brown (NZL)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Germany	2011-07-24	08:31:47	08:42:36	08:32:13	7
IM New Zealand	2011-03-05	08:31:07	08:32:37	08:30:41	1
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	08:34:10	08:36:01	08:30:23	17
IM Germany	2010-07-04	08:18:33	08:29:38	08:29:30	4
IM New Zealand	2010-03-06	08:21:52	08:27:45	08:29:28	1
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	08:53:41	08:50:28	08:29:47	22
IM New Zealand	2009-03-07	08:18:05	08:25:32	08:25:44	1
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	08:26:17	08:25:12	08:25:46	5
IM Germany	2008-07-06	08:08:29	08:27:17	08:25:54	4
IM New Zealand	2008-03-01	08:24:49	08:31:16	08:25:33	1
IM New Zealand	2007-03-03	08:26:33	08:29:46	08:23:54	1
IM Hawaii	2006-10-21	08:25:22	08:23:08	08:22:17	8
IM Germany	2006-07-23	08:13:40	08:23:00	08:22:00	1
IM Hawaii	2005-10-15	08:19:36	08:19:20	08:21:34	2
IM Germany	2005-07-11	08:28:00	08:25:12	08:22:48	2
IM New Zealand	2005-05-03	08:20:15	08:20:15	08:20:15	1

Results for Marko Albert (EST)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2011-10-15	08:35:18	08:36:55	08:35:22	13
IM Austria	2011-07-03	08:08:17	08:33:40	08:33:40	3

Results for Terenzo Bozzone (NZL)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM New Zealand	2011-03-05	08:41:54	08:43:25	08:38:55	2
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	08:38:23	08:40:15	08:37:38	20
IM New Zealand	2010-03-06	08:30:00	08:35:59	08:36:44	2
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	08:34:45	08:31:39	08:37:03	11
IM Germany	2009-07-05	08:29:40	08:46:23	08:40:06	9
IM New Zealand	2009-03-07	08:25:37	08:33:11	08:33:11	2

Results for Aaron Farlow (AUS)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka	2012-01-21	08:41:53	08:37:27	08:42:49	1
IM Western Australia	2011-12-04	08:34:09	08:41:36	08:44:24	5
IM Wales	2011-09-11	09:04:25	08:57:08	08:45:31	2
IM UK	2011-07-31	08:24:34	08:33:33	08:38:40	1
IM Regensburg	2010-08-01	08:39:41	08:45:28	08:45:28	6

Results for Torsten Abel (GER)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	08:16:44	08:29:10	08:46:22	4
IM Canada	2011-08-28	08:41:09	08:45:58	08:50:09	2
IM Texas	2011-05-21	08:38:40	08:44:59	08:51:14	10
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	08:42:42	08:44:35	08:53:12	26
IM Arizona	2009-11-22	08:20:39	08:34:13	08:56:17	3
IM Switzerland	2009-07-12	08:36:38	08:50:07	09:04:46	3
IM Canada	2007-08-26	09:02:07	09:02:51	09:12:32	12
IM Coeur d’Alene	2007-06-23	09:34:05	09:35:54	09:16:52	16
IM Canada	2006-08-27	09:14:42	09:14:01	09:02:47	10
Challenge Roth	2005-06-24	08:36:06	08:47:02	08:47:02	11

Results for Keegan Williams (NZL)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
Challenge Roth	2011-07-10	08:16:01	08:38:02	08:52:01	3
IM Brasil	2011-05-29	08:37:20	08:58:23	08:55:07	6
IM New Zealand	2011-03-05	08:49:34	08:51:07	08:54:13	4
Challenge Wanaka	2011-01-15	10:49:47	10:52:23	08:55:17	7
IM New Zealand	2010-03-06	08:40:11	08:46:17	08:55:17	4
Challenge Wanaka	2010-01-16	08:41:19	08:44:16	08:58:25	3
IM Switzerland	2009-07-12	09:00:46	09:14:53	09:05:32	14
Challenge Wanaka	2008-01-19	09:05:55	09:09:21	08:58:23	5

Results for Simon Billeau (FRA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Western Australia	2011-12-04	08:38:06	08:45:37	08:53:22	8
IM Germany	2011-07-24	08:43:58	08:55:02	08:55:26	11
IM Western Australia	2010-12-05	08:40:37	08:52:34	08:55:34	8
IM South Africa	2010-04-25	08:53:49	09:02:06	08:56:39	8
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	09:14:07	09:10:46	08:54:18	40
IM France	2009-06-28	08:46:30	08:53:00	08:44:38	3
IM Western Australia	2008-12-07	08:20:32	08:34:50	08:34:50	5

Results for Jamie Whyte (NZL)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka	2012-01-21	08:51:53	08:47:22	08:54:35	2
Challenge Cairns	2011-06-05	08:35:07	08:43:23	08:57:46	4
Challenge Wanaka	2011-01-15	09:03:53	09:06:04	09:06:18	1
IM Canada	2010-08-29	08:57:48	09:06:33	09:06:33	13

Results for Stefan Schmid (GER)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	08:32:59	08:45:49	09:01:00	13
IM Wisconsin	2011-09-11	08:57:51	08:58:41	09:06:49	2
IM Switzerland	2010-07-25	08:38:59	08:50:08	09:11:28	6
IM Austria	2010-07-04	09:12:44	09:30:46	09:26:30	27
IM Wisconsin	2007-09-09	09:17:13	09:16:53	09:16:53	10

Results for Guy Crawford (AUS)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Western Australia	2011-12-04	09:10:50	09:18:49	09:11:53	13
IM Western Australia	2010-12-05	08:50:28	09:02:39	09:02:39	9

Results for Simon Cochrane (NZL)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka	2012-01-21	09:23:15	09:18:28	09:18:28	9

Results for Romain Guillaume (FRA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin	2011-09-11	10:44:25	10:45:25	09:26:10	15
IM UK	2011-07-31	08:41:25	08:50:42	09:12:58	2
IM Florida	2010-11-06	08:52:16	09:07:40	09:17:15	18
IM Wisconsin	2010-09-12	08:49:42	08:51:59	09:19:01	2
IM France	2010-06-27	08:58:56	09:12:36	09:24:48	5
IM Florida	2009-11-07	08:47:52	09:03:09	09:27:53	10
IM Switzerland	2009-07-12	08:53:07	09:07:02	09:34:28	11
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	09:15:56	09:14:44	09:43:15	48
IM France	2008-06-22	09:19:24	09:24:04	09:53:10	10
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	10:06:02	10:06:16	10:06:47	79
IM Switzerland	2007-06-24	09:37:17	09:51:21	10:07:07	17
IM Switzerland	2006-07-02	10:13:40	10:28:00	10:28:00	20

Results for James Bowstead (NZL)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM New Zealand	2011-03-05	09:39:38	09:41:20	09:37:24	10
IM New Zealand	2010-03-06	09:02:46	09:09:08	09:34:45	5
IM New Zealand	2008-03-01	10:06:43	10:14:28	10:00:51	22
IM New Zealand	2007-03-03	09:39:03	09:42:43	09:42:43	14

Results for Eneko Elosegui (ESP)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	08:54:57	09:07:24	09:45:46	13
IM UK	2010-08-01	09:38:53	09:46:39	09:53:23	7
IM Lanzarote	2010-05-22	09:21:08	09:19:08	09:54:52	14
IM UK	2009-08-02	09:36:48	09:33:32	10:04:22	12
IM Lanzarote	2009-05-23	09:59:58	09:56:35	10:12:36	26
IM New Zealand	2009-03-07	10:44:38	10:54:17	10:18:00	24
IM Lake Placid	2008-07-20	10:00:09	09:58:56	10:01:05	17
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	10:07:14	10:07:28	10:02:27	81
IM UK	2007-08-19	09:51:39	09:57:13	09:57:13	23

Results for Daiki Masuda (JPN)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	10:06:50	10:05:32	10:05:32	75

Results for James Cotter (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM New Zealand	2009-03-07	09:58:26	10:07:23	10:07:23	20

Results for Timothy Reed (AUS)

Race

Date

Total

Adjusted

Rating

Rank in Race

Results for Greg Close (USA)

Race

Date

Total

Adjusted

Rating

Rank in Race

Results for Shanon Stallard (NZL)

Race

Date

Total

Adjusted

Rating

Rank in Race

Results for Yu Shinozaki (JPN)

Race

Date

Total

Adjusted

Rating

Rank in Race

Results for Sean Donnelly (GER)

Race

Date

Total

Adjusted

Rating

Rank in Race

Results for Joanna Lawn (NZL)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2011-10-15	10:02:33	10:04:27	09:36:59	19
IM Texas	2011-05-21	09:32:19	09:39:18	09:33:17	9
IM New Zealand	2011-03-05	09:31:53	09:33:33	09:32:28	3
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	09:43:08	09:45:14	09:32:18	20
IM Germany	2010-07-04	09:36:12	09:49:00	09:30:21	6
IM New Zealand	2010-03-06	09:14:35	09:21:05	09:27:19	1
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	09:34:45	09:31:17	09:28:24	7
IM New Zealand	2009-03-07	09:23:08	09:31:34	09:27:52	2
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	09:45:33	09:44:18	09:27:11	14
IM New Zealand	2008-03-01	09:16:00	09:23:06	09:23:52	1
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	09:26:47	09:27:00	09:24:01	4
Challenge Roth	2007-06-24	08:58:25	09:20:53	09:23:23	2
IM New Zealand	2007-03-03	09:20:02	09:23:35	09:23:59	1
IM Hawaii	2006-10-21	09:32:48	09:30:17	09:24:06	7
Challenge Roth	2006-06-24	09:01:17	09:13:38	09:22:00	1
IM Hawaii	2005-10-15	09:14:53	09:14:36	09:25:44	4
IM New Zealand	2005-05-03	09:30:14	09:30:14	09:32:08	1
IM Australia	2005-04-08	09:34:04	09:34:04	09:34:04	4

Results for Gina Crawford (NZL)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka	2012-01-21	09:44:06	09:39:08	09:38:07	1
IM Wisconsin	2010-09-12	09:27:26	09:29:52	09:37:56	1
IM St. George	2010-05-01	10:11:51	10:06:48	09:39:00	4
IM New Zealand	2010-03-06	09:28:26	09:35:06	09:35:13	2
Challenge Wanaka	2010-01-16	09:28:57	09:32:10	09:35:14	1
IM Western Australia	2009-12-05	09:16:52	09:33:29	09:35:45	1
IM New Zealand	2009-03-07	09:18:26	09:26:47	09:36:12	1
Challenge Wanaka	2009-01-01	09:28:27	09:34:48	09:37:57	1
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	09:36:53	09:35:39	09:38:38	8
Challenge Roth	2008-07-13	08:57:18	09:19:00	09:39:23	3
IM New Zealand	2008-03-01	09:33:29	09:40:49	09:45:42	5
Challenge Wanaka	2008-01-19	09:33:46	09:37:22	09:47:35	1
IM Wisconsin	2007-09-09	09:37:03	09:36:42	09:53:41	1
IM New Zealand	2007-03-03	10:09:32	10:13:24	10:13:24	5

Results for Meredith Kessler (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	09:00:14	09:13:45	09:38:15	3
IM Wisconsin	2011-09-11	09:50:45	09:51:40	09:42:23	2
IM Canada	2011-08-28	09:37:22	09:42:42	09:40:37	3
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	09:15:01	09:27:56	09:40:08	4
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	10:04:02	10:06:13	09:42:55	26
IM Canada	2010-08-29	09:13:46	09:22:46	09:36:21	1
IM Coeur d’Alene	2010-06-27	09:23:52	09:31:14	09:41:26	2
IM St. George	2010-05-01	09:46:58	09:42:07	09:47:07	2
IM Arizona	2009-11-22	09:37:09	09:52:47	09:52:47	7

Results for Jessica Jacobs (USA)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Florida	2011-11-05	08:55:10	09:17:03	09:47:25	1
IM Wisconsin	2011-09-11	09:41:03	09:41:57	09:52:17	1
IM Florida	2010-11-06	09:07:49	09:23:40	09:54:08	1
IM Canada	2010-08-29	09:44:04	09:53:34	10:03:18	6
IM Florida	2009-11-07	09:27:40	09:44:06	10:05:02	6
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	10:04:17	10:00:38	10:08:27	21
IM Wisconsin	2009-09-13	12:12:45	12:12:25	10:09:56	9
Challenge Roth	2009-07-12	09:25:24	09:48:49	10:09:56	6
IM Coeur d’Alene	2009-06-21	09:54:58	10:01:17	10:14:28	7
IM Florida	2008-11-01	09:17:51	09:37:50	10:18:01	3
IM Wisconsin	2008-09-07	09:50:45	09:51:05	10:29:35	3
IM Arizona	2008-04-13	10:17:01	10:22:34	10:44:14	12
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	10:22:44	10:22:58	10:55:21	36
IM Coeur d’Alene	2006-06-25	10:56:31	10:56:56	11:21:14	17
IM Hawaii	2005-10-15	11:51:15	11:50:53	11:50:53	59

Results for Candice Hammond (NZL)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka	2012-01-21	09:58:39	09:53:33	09:53:02	4
Challenge Cairns	2011-06-05	09:43:03	09:52:24	09:52:24	4

Results for Kate Bevilaqua (AUS)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Western Australia	2011-12-04	09:43:37	09:52:05	09:57:32	6
IM Korea	2011-07-03	09:39:44	09:47:30	09:58:17	1
IM New Zealand	2011-03-05	09:40:01	09:41:43	09:59:46	4
IM Western Australia	2010-12-05	09:19:44	09:32:35	10:02:21	1
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	10:19:31	10:21:45	10:06:56	34
IM Lake Placid	2010-07-25	09:53:39	09:57:55	10:04:22	4
IM Lanzarote	2010-05-22	10:19:45	10:17:32	10:05:38	5
IM New Zealand	2010-03-06	10:18:12	10:25:27	10:02:56	7
IM Western Australia	2009-12-05	09:45:53	10:03:22	09:56:50	5
IM New Zealand	2008-03-01	09:20:06	09:27:15	09:54:39	2
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	10:00:56	10:01:09	10:01:36	25
IM Australia	2007-04-08	09:37:00	09:39:45	10:01:45	4
IM Western Australia	2006-12-03	09:27:05	09:33:50	10:09:14	4
IM Lanzarote	2006-05-20	10:51:14	10:46:25	10:25:03	5
IM Hawaii	2005-10-15	10:07:42	10:07:23	10:11:49	31
IM Coeur d’Alene	2005-06-26	10:16:40	10:16:40	10:16:40	2

Results for Belinda Harper (NZL)

Race	Date	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
Challenge Roth	2011-07-10	09:06:47	09:31:03	10:10:30	4
IM New Zealand	2011-03-05	09:40:33	09:42:15	10:32:50	5
Challenge Wanaka	2011-01-15	11:23:15	11:25:59	11:25:59	4

Results for Rachael Paxton (AUS)

Race

Date

Total

Adjusted

Rating

Rank in Race

One thing I plan to do for this year is focus on the main long distance triathlon of the year – Ironman World Championships in Kona. But the race is not until October, so it’s still a bit away. Nonetheless, I will calculate the odds for winning the race and update them when new results come in. So let’s have a look at how I’m putting together the field and what predictions I come up with at this point.

Putting together the field

As the race is almost a year away, it is a bit tricky to figure out who will be starting – especially as the field is determined by the Kona Pro Ranking and most potential starters haven’t secured their spots yet. Still, most starters are pretty obvious, so it’s not too difficult to put together a field:

1. TOP 10 from last year’s race
   There is a pretty high probability that these athletes want to start again in 2012. As they have quite a few KPR points from the Kona race, they just have to race another IM to be eligible for a slot.
2. Recent champions
   Athletes that won in the last five years are guaranteed a spot as long as they validate their spot by finishing an IM. At this point, this includes Craig Alexander, Chris McCormack, Chrissie Wellington and Mirinda Carfrae.
3. Top spots from the current KPR standings
   The more qualifying races are run, the more athletes I will take from this group. Right now, there have been 7 of 24 races, so I fill about a quarter of the remaining spots from the current KPR standings.
4. Top spots from the current TTR ratings
   In order to fill the field to capacity (50 athletes for the men, 30 for the women), the rest is taken from my top ratings.
5. Remove athletes that will probably not start
   There are some athletes that have stated that they will not be starting in Kona (Chrissie taking a year off, Macca focusing on the Olympics, Julie Dibens who can only race one IM per year for health reasons, Karin Thürig who ended her career) or that are not eligible to race (Michael Weiss serving a doping ban).

This way, the best athletes (i.e. those that have a reasonable chance to win the race) are included in the field.

Male Participants

Here’s a look at the winning odds for the men’s race:

Athlete	Dec 2011
Craig Alexander	30%
Andreas Raelert	17%
Marino Vanhoenacker	15%
Pete Jacobs	11%
Eneko Llanos	9%
Paul Amey	7%

(There were no significant changes in January, so I just have one set of odds for the men.)

At this point, Crowie is still the overall favorite for 2012. Based on his performance in Kona 2011, Pete Jacobs might be expected a bit higher up in the odds, but he’s had a few sub-par performances in the past. Eneko Llanos and Paul Amey profit from their fast races in Arizona and are the last athletes with a significant statistical chance of winning Kona. (There are a few athletes with a 1 or 2% chance, but for me they don’t even an outside side of winning.)

Female Participants

The female side has seen a bit of movement in January with Chrissie’s announcement of a break:

Athlete	Dec 2011	Jan 2012
Chrissie Wellington	67%	–
Mirinda Carfrae	16%	45%
Leanda Cave	6%	18%
Caroline Steffen	2%	8%
Mary Beth Ellis	2%	6%
Catriona Morrison	2%	4%
Rachel Joyce	1%	4%

(None of the athletes on this list raced in January, so the change is a result of taking Chrissie off the start list.)

In December, anyone beating against Chrissie would have been foolish. Now that she decided not to race an IM in 2012, Rinnie has taken over the role of the favorite – in fact she’s got a higher winning chance than Crowie. The other athletes’ chances also took a boost. Leanda Cave stands a bit above the other contenders (and she will do her best to keep the Kona crown in Great Britain). A few more athletes now have a decent chance of winning that were just statistical blips in December. I expected quite some movement in the female ranking based on the 2012 season. While it will be hard for anyone to take the top spot from Rinnie, I’m sure we will see a few new names as potential Kona winners.

Race Conditions

The conditions in Wanaka seemed to be pretty hard, the race adjustment of –4:36 is one of the slowest in the last years.  The course rating has dropped by more than a full minute to 2:03 – just barely faster than IM Hawaii.

Male Results

Aaron Farlow put in a solid race to win another long distance triathlon:

Rank	Name	Nation	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Aaron Farlow	AUS	08:41:53	08:48:52
2	Jamie Whyte	NZL	08:51:53	09:02:20
3	Kieran Doe	NZL	08:57:17	08:50:17
4	Courtney Ogden	AUS	09:08:42	08:50:32
5	Jimmy Johnsen	DNK	09:09:05	08:54:10
6	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	09:15:21	09:02:34
7	Scott Defilippis	USA	09:16:00	09:31:21
8	Marc Pschebizin	GER	09:22:35	09:22:22
9	Simon Cochrane	NZL	09:23:15	n/a

Last year’s champion Jamie Whyte also had a strong race and finished  second. After more than a year of not finishing Ironman-distance races and being in a crash with severe injuries  close to this race, Kieran Doe grabbed the last podium spot in a time that was only a little bit  slower than predicted.

Female Results

Gina Crawford proved that she is back after her baby-break and won in a convincing fashion:

Rank	Name	Nation	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Gina Crawford	NZL	09:44:06	09:42:51
2	Britta Martin	NZL	09:47:39	10:01:14
3	Simone Maier	GER	09:57:42	10:20:34
4	Candice Hammond	NZL	09:58:39	09:57:26
5	Julia Grant	NZL	10:01:49	n/a
6	Nicole Ward	AUS	10:12:39	10:10:10
7	Tamsyn Hayes	NZL	10:16:23	n/a
8	Jodie Scott	AUS	10:53:43	10:46:32
9	Jo Carrel	NZL	11:26:19	10:57:27
10	Sarah Richardson		11:40:20	n/a

Britta Martin ran her way into second place. She and third-place Simone Maier were the only women who managed to finish faster than their expected times.

As always, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

Challenge Wanaka is a smaller race slowly building on the image of a very beautiful location starting with a really cold swim in an alpine lake. It is one of the slower courses with a rating of 3:23. Last year’s races were won by Jamie Whyte (9:03:53) and Belinda Granger (10:26:17) – slower times that are not really representative of the course, so I’m expecting faster times this year.

Male Participants

Jamie Whyte is back to defend his title, but he faces a number of probably stronger racers:

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Aaron Farlow	AUS	08:41:07	08:44:24	45
2	Kieran Doe	NZL	08:42:32	08:45:49	57
3	Courtney Ogden	AUS	08:42:46	08:46:03	58
4	Jimmy Johnsen	DNK	08:46:21	08:49:40	84
5	Keegan Williams	NZL	08:48:41	08:52:01	95
6	Jamie Whyte	NZL	08:54:24	08:57:46	121
7	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	08:54:37	08:57:59	123
8	Leon Griffin	AUS	08:58:37	09:02:00	147
9	Bryan Rhodes	NZL	09:10:48	09:14:16	224
10	Marc Pschebizin	GER	09:14:08	09:17:37	255
11	Scott Defilippis	USA	09:22:59	09:26:32	329
12	Paul Hawkins	GBR	09:24:25	09:27:58	342
13	Simon Cochrane	NZL	n/a	unrated	n/a

Here’s a look at the winning odds:

• Kieran Doe: 25%
• Aaron Farlow: 19%
• Courtney Ogden: 18%
• Jimmy Johnsen: 11%
• Keegan Williams: 9%
• Bryan Rhodes: 8%

Kieran has not had any results in 2011, so it’ll be interesting to see  how  he is going to perform. He does not have the top rating, but is a strong racer with a number of great results. If he runs into issues, Aaron Farlow and Courtney Ogden are going to fight for the won.

Female Participants

The women’s field is almost as large as the men’s field:

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Rebekah Keat	AUS	09:25:07	09:28:40	10
2	Gina Crawford	NZL	09:34:19	09:37:56	29
3	Candice Hammond	NZL	09:48:42	09:52:24	64
4	Britta Martin	NZL	09:52:26	09:56:10	72
5	Christie Sym	AUS	09:59:43	10:03:29	90
6	Nicole Ward	AUS	10:01:14	10:05:01	95
7	Simone Maier	GER	10:11:29	10:15:20	142
8	Jodie Scott	AUS	10:37:04	10:41:05	208
9	Jo Carrel	NZL	10:47:49	10:51:54	230
10	Tamsyn Hayes	NZL	n/a	unrated	n/a
11	Julia Grant	NZL	n/a	unrated	n/a

Here are the winning odds for the women:

• Rebekah Keat: 49%
• Gina Crawford: 44%

These two athletes are close  enough in their capabilities and results that it’s almost impossible to pick one over the other. The rest of the field would have to show an amazing improvement to come close to Bek or Gina.

Update Jan 19th: Rebekah isn’t able to race – not sure why (she seems to prepare for racing Melbourne in March), but this means Gina is the clear front runner.