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Looking forward to IM South Africa (Athlete Details)

In case you’re interested and want to dig a little deeper, here is a look at all rated Pro athletes and the results I have for them in the database.

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 08:17:19 08:33:38 8
2 Tom Lowe GBR 08:18:43 08:35:04 9
3 Michael Goehner GER 08:24:32 08:41:05 15
4 Eduardo Sturla ARG 08:27:37 08:44:16 21
5 Rutger Beke BEL 08:27:49 08:44:28 22
6 Raynard Tissink SAF 08:28:56 08:45:37 23
7 Uwe Widmann GER 08:31:00 08:47:45 29
8 Swen Sundberg GER 08:39:35 08:56:37 47
9 Jason Shortis AUS 08:39:38 08:56:40 48
10 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:46:24 09:03:40 74
11 James Cunnama ZAF 08:48:05 09:05:24 81
12 Luke Bell AUS 08:48:52 09:06:13 84
13 Sergio Marques PRT 08:50:18 09:07:41 87
14 Bert Jammaer BEL 08:59:28 09:17:10 110
15 Patrick Wallimann SWI 09:01:03 09:18:48 123
16 Mike Schifferle SWI 09:07:32 09:25:29 161
17 Andreas Bocherer GER 09:12:47 09:30:55 184
18 Toby Radcliffe GBR 09:17:32 09:35:49 206
19 Heinrich Sickl AUT 09:28:26 09:47:05 253

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Chrissie Wellington GBR 08:40:49 08:57:54 1
2 Natascha Badmann SWI 09:11:38 09:29:43 5
3 Rachel Joyce GBR 09:24:11 09:42:41 16
4 Belinda Granger AUS 09:28:48 09:47:27 23
5 Eva Dollinger AUT 09:34:54 09:53:45 35
6 Martina Dogana ITA 09:40:48 09:59:51 43
7 Yvette Grice GBR 10:15:17 10:35:28 122
8 Nicole Woysch GER 10:37:44 10:58:39 153
9 Simone Benz SWI 10:55:57 11:17:28 171

Results for Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:13:14 08:18:47 08:33:38 3
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 08:17:32 08:34:36 08:38:26 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:53:14 08:54:07 08:39:43 22
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:23:31 08:26:41 08:33:10 5
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:24:17 08:27:32 08:37:16 6
IM Florida 2005-11-05 08:28:26 08:48:38 08:48:38 1

Results for Tom Lowe (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:11:44 08:35:04 08:35:04 3

Results for Michael Goehner (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 08:13:09 08:34:07 08:41:05 4
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 07:55:53 08:26:44 08:43:13 1
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 08:32:01 08:49:35 08:48:57 2
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:43:55 08:47:12 08:48:38 18
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:53:47 08:57:13 08:49:34 33
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 08:21:34 08:40:05 08:40:05 5

Results for Eduardo Sturla (ARG)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:48:07 08:54:03 08:44:16 31
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:49:22 08:44:22 08:40:40 19
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:36:53 08:37:44 08:38:59 10
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:36:31 08:39:46 08:39:46 13
IM Florida 2006-11-04 08:23:49 08:39:46 08:39:46 2

Results for Rutger Beke (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:17:19 09:23:35 08:44:28 51
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:21:23 08:22:13 08:30:19 3
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 11:13:58 11:18:12 08:33:11 89
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 08:21:14 08:38:52 08:33:11 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:21:04 08:24:18 08:31:00 4
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 08:46:44 08:43:19 08:34:42 3
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:22:30 08:24:56 08:24:56 4

Results for Raynard Tissink (SAF)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:20:11 08:25:48 08:45:37 5
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 08:23:28 08:39:27 08:48:46 1
IM Florida 2009-11-07 08:40:21 09:06:59 08:50:23 8
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 08:45:19 08:50:02 08:47:12 1
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:07:18 08:38:54 08:46:33 7
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:55:59 09:27:38 08:48:45 19
IM South Africa 2008-04-13 08:23:09 08:43:56 08:36:10 2
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 08:36:07 08:37:31 08:32:41 2
IM South Africa 2006-03-18 08:37:37 08:31:04 08:29:44 2
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:25:52 08:28:19 08:28:19 7

Results for Uwe Widmann (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2008-11-01 08:25:34 08:53:36 08:47:45 5
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:42:24 08:45:46 08:43:20 22
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:37:57 08:40:28 08:40:28 15

Results for Swen Sundberg (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:33:44 08:59:03 08:56:37 10
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:07:50 08:39:28 08:56:00 8
IM Florida 2008-11-01 08:26:52 08:54:59 09:00:20 6
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:30:47 09:00:57 09:01:59 8
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:57:37 09:01:00 09:02:25 27
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 09:14:41 09:18:17 09:03:14 9
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 08:30:07 08:44:55 08:44:55 4

Results for Jason Shortis (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 08:34:52 08:51:13 08:56:40 4
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 08:58:09 08:55:58 08:58:25 3
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 08:59:14 09:10:02 08:59:23 3
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 08:30:55 08:55:07 08:53:50 8
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:57:06 08:59:42 08:53:06 38
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 08:27:25 08:46:09 08:46:09 8

Results for Petr Vabrousek (CZE)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 08:58:30 09:05:31 09:03:40 6
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-01 09:27:44 09:11:56 09:03:34 5
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:29:59 08:55:06 09:03:07 7
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:56:26 09:02:28 09:03:34 41
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:39:16 08:58:26 09:03:38 4
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 08:46:33 08:56:27 09:03:56 2
Challenge Wanaka 2010-01-16 09:00:08 09:12:27 09:04:25 4
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:37:45 09:08:11 09:03:55 10
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:23:03 09:17:44 09:03:39 50
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 09:08:26 09:13:22 09:02:42 7
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 09:10:24 09:08:10 09:01:57 6
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:15:03 08:47:09 09:01:29 10
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 08:36:07 08:53:49 09:02:38 3
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 08:44:38 08:59:34 09:08:58 2
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:28:09 08:46:30 09:09:44 8
IM Florida 2008-11-01 08:23:00 08:50:54 09:11:46 3
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:04:42 09:05:36 09:13:44 33
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 08:55:20 08:59:08 09:14:35 2
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 09:09:36 09:22:06 09:16:18 7
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:53:05 09:18:47 09:15:38 21
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:42:26 09:46:05 09:15:15 71
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 08:41:59 09:00:20 09:10:56 4
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 08:48:19 08:49:45 09:12:30 4
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:10:45 09:14:18 09:16:24 54
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 09:03:12 08:59:41 09:16:48 7
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 08:44:54 09:00:08 09:20:38 8
IM South Africa 2006-03-18 08:38:52 08:32:18 09:26:12 3
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:12:17 09:14:58 09:46:05 54
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 11:19:03 11:10:14 10:02:25 22
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 08:49:46 08:49:46 08:49:46 4

Results for James Cunnama (ZAF)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:15:59 08:40:25 09:05:24 1
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 08:18:47 08:39:59 09:12:01 5
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:25:05 09:19:45 09:22:48 53
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 08:55:24 09:13:46 09:24:06 6
IM South Africa 2008-04-13 08:52:17 09:14:16 09:30:41 10
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 09:48:38 09:50:13 09:50:13 13

Results for Luke Bell (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:24:34 09:30:55 09:06:13 53
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 08:43:16 09:04:11 08:58:46 4
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:26:26 09:33:40 08:56:34 19
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 08:27:41 08:44:27 08:36:17 2
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:24:26 08:27:41 08:31:35 7
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:33:43 08:36:12 08:36:12 13

Results for Sergio Marques (PRT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:41:02 09:35:32 09:07:41 63
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:47:16 09:48:14 09:00:18 66
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 11:10:37 11:50:14 08:46:19 26
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:23:49 08:48:07 08:46:19 2
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:40:32 08:43:53 08:45:43 19
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 08:31:26 08:46:17 08:46:26 5
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:43:45 08:46:17 08:46:31 20
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 08:46:47 08:46:47 08:46:47 3

Results for Bert Jammaer (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:41:51 09:48:23 09:17:10 58
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:41:13 08:36:17 09:07:19 16
IM Florida 2008-11-01 09:43:19 10:15:40 09:18:43 38
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:35:53 08:39:07 08:52:28 12
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:01:47 09:05:16 09:00:57 45
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:53:16 08:55:51 08:55:51 32

Results for Patrick Wallimann (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:25:33 09:20:12 09:18:48 54
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:01:16 09:02:10 09:17:55 30
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:32:51 09:36:27 09:36:27 61

Results for Mike Schifferle (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:47:53 09:12:56 09:25:29 11
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:09:02 09:36:05 09:27:55 22
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 08:58:35 09:10:26 09:25:58 8
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:08:49 09:03:38 09:30:42 34
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:21:13 09:22:09 09:40:19 53
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:28:17 09:31:51 09:48:12 57
IM Florida 2006-11-04 09:41:45 10:00:10 09:57:45 31
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:51:31 09:55:20 09:55:20 77

Results for Andreas Bocherer (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:24:34 09:30:55 09:30:55 53

Results for Toby Radcliffe (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:01:02 09:27:41 09:35:49 19
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:12:44 09:45:13 09:40:59 18
IM Florida 2008-11-01 09:05:41 09:35:57 09:35:57 24

Results for Heinrich Sickl (AUT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:01:31 09:27:12 09:47:05 16
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:32:21 09:53:01 09:52:59 32
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:16:53 09:35:03 09:52:59 21
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 09:42:46 09:56:24 09:59:21 16
IM Florida 2006-11-04 09:56:35 10:15:28 10:00:39 34
IM Florida 2005-11-05 09:21:53 09:44:12 09:51:31 20
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 09:59:34 09:59:34 09:59:34 25

Results for Chrissie Wellington (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:36:13 09:00:42 08:57:54 1
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 08:19:13 08:40:26 08:57:10 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:54:02 08:48:59 09:02:32 1
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:31:59 09:05:11 09:07:53 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:06:23 09:07:17 09:09:33 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:08:45 09:12:12 09:12:12 1

Results for Natascha Badmann (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 09:22:01 09:23:32 09:29:43 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:38:52 09:42:36 09:32:07 10
IM South Africa 2006-03-18 09:46:38 09:39:12 09:26:09 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:09:30 09:12:10 09:12:10 1

Results for Rachel Joyce (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:18:48 09:25:05 09:42:41 5
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:32:27 09:27:02 09:50:08 6
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 09:37:00 09:56:48 10:03:07 3
IM Florida 2008-11-01 09:37:50 10:09:53 10:09:53 5

Results for Belinda Granger (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-01 10:26:17 10:08:51 09:47:27 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:18:29 10:25:26 09:45:20 30
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 09:15:25 09:39:02 09:41:06 4
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:40:48 09:48:13 09:41:20 2
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 09:12:12 09:48:00 09:40:35 5
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:56:01 09:57:00 09:39:42 17
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:17:58 09:36:10 09:37:40 1
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:58:08 09:29:55 09:37:52 4
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:37:54 09:41:32 09:39:01 9
IM Lake Placid 2007-07-22 09:40:20 09:43:44 09:38:39 1
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 09:07:56 09:39:08 09:37:48 3
Challenge Wanaka 2007-01-20 09:38:26 09:52:14 09:37:32 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:35:48 09:39:30 09:34:11 8
IM Canada 2006-08-27 09:25:13 09:28:55 09:32:42 1
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 09:10:27 09:36:32 09:34:08 2
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:28:16 09:31:01 09:32:45 7
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 09:14:06 09:34:34 09:34:34 1

Results for Eva Dollinger (AUT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:47:09 09:53:45 09:53:45 21

Results for Martina Dogana (ITA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 09:48:13 10:06:54 09:59:51 7
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:04:45 09:59:02 09:55:42 23
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:50:47 09:51:46 09:51:46 15

Results for Yvette Grice (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:14:49 10:21:43 10:35:28 28
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 10:41:24 10:47:10 10:44:55 8
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:37:51 10:41:51 10:41:51 44

Results for Nicole Woysch (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:51:20 10:58:39 10:58:39 41

Results for Simone Benz (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Canada 2010-08-29 10:53:21 11:17:28 11:17:28 16

IM New Zealand 2011 – Analyzing the Results

This Saturday, Cameron Brown won IM New Zealand for an amazing 10th time. The women’s race was an unexpected win by Sam Warriner.

image (Photos from news article at Ironman website.)

Here is a closer look at the results.

Conditions

The conditions on race day sounded really bad – there was a lot of rain, probably also pretty cold weather. While these horrible sounding conditions are sometimes actually quite good for fast racing, this was not the case for New Zealand:

  • Course Rating prior to race: 18:39
  • Adjustment for 2011 race: 7:06

This means that New Zealand is usually about a quarter hour faster than IM Hawaii (which has a course rating of 2:50), but this year was about 11:30 minutes slower than usual. This is pretty much in line with the horrible race conditions.

Men’s Results

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Cameron Brown NZL 08:31:07 08:29:55
2 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:41:54 08:34:29
3 Mathias Hecht SWI 08:45:36 08:39:17
4 Keegan Williams NZL 08:49:34 08:47:01
5 Scott Curry CAN 08:50:44 09:32:03
6 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:58:30 09:00:44
7 Tuukka Miettinen FIN 09:12:16 09:20:32
8 Gavin Scott NZL 09:15:10 n/a
9 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:25:39 09:15:47
10 James Bowstead NZL 09:39:38 09:42:59
11 Brent Foster NZL 09:46:45 09:33:27
12 Scott McGregor NZL 09:52:32 n/a
13 Kerry Weeks NZL 10:04:24 n/a
14 Rich Munro AUS 10:53:20 09:33:45

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

Among the top athletes, Cameron was the one that was least affected by the conditions and landed a really convincing win. Petr Vabrousek was also even better than his expected time, but was passed by Scott Curry who really improved on his prior results.

Women’s Results

Rank Name Nation Actual Time Expected Time
1 Samantha Warriner NZL 09:28:24 n/a
2 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 09:31:33 09:00:22
3 Joanna Lawn NZL 09:31:53 09:28:29
4 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:40:01 10:06:56
5 Belinda Harper NZL 09:40:33 n/a
6 Kirsten Molloy AUS 09:49:02 n/a
7 Michelle Mitchell AUS 09:50:04 n/a
8 Renee Lane AUS 10:01:59 n/a
9 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:16:48 10:19:06
10 Jo Carrel NZL 10:54:31 10:50:28

Expected time is based on athlete’s rating (prior to race) and race conditions.

Previously unrated Sam Warriner pulled off a surprise win. Her first rated race would put her into a Top10 spot in the rankings (but I require a minimum of two rated races). (I think I read somewhere that she has done a previous IM-distance race. Does anyone know where? Please let me know in the comments.)

Top rated Mirinda Carfrae had two flats on the bike, and she just edged out Jo Lawn. Kate Bevilaqua and the the other previously unrated women also performed well, posting solid times and provided some close racing.

Looking ahead to IM New Zealand

Since my last post, I’ve worked a bit more on the results and ratings I have on file for IM New Zealand. Here is the full data!

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Rating Rank
1 Cameron Brown NZL 08:37:51 10
2 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:42:44 15
3 Mathias Hecht SWI 08:46:24 25
4 Keegan Williams NZL 08:55:41 39
5 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:04:30 67
6 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:24:17 126
7 Tuukka Miettinen FIN 09:27:59 139
8 Scott Curry CAN 09:40:52 191
9 Brent Foster NZL 09:43:01 196
10 Rich Munro AUS 09:43:11 197
11 Heinrich Sickl AUT 09:46:31 213
12 James Bowstead NZL 09:52:15 238
13 John Carey AUS 09:59:37 269
14 Kerry Weeks NZL unrated n/a
15 Scott McGregor NZL unrated n/a
16 Gavin Scott NZL unrated n/a
17 Matt Burgess NZL unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Rating Rank
1 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 09:08:06 2
2 Joanna Lawn NZL 09:38:39 11
3 Sarah Pollett AUS 10:03:11 45
4 Britta Martin NZL 10:13:15 58
5 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 10:16:25 66
6 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:26:58 85
7 Donna Phelan USA 10:30:50 92
8 Desiree Ficker USA 10:51:22 121
9 Amanda Balding USA 11:22:07 142
10 Jo Carrel NZL unrated n/a
11 Laura-Clare Whelan NZL unrated n/a
12 Michelle Mitchell AUS unrated n/a
13 Samantha Warriner NZL unrated n/a
14 Hannah Lawrence NZL unrated n/a
15 Kirsten Molloy AUS unrated n/a
16 Michelle Bremer NZL unrated n/a
17 Renee Lane AUS unrated n/a
18 Belinda Harper NZL unrated n/a

Results for Cameron Brown (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:34:10 08:42:00 08:37:51 17
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 08:21:52 08:36:49 08:37:08 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:53:41 08:49:28 08:37:11 22
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 08:18:05 08:40:39 08:34:38 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:26:17 08:28:44 08:33:14 5
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 08:24:49 08:47:00 08:34:30 1
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 08:26:33 08:43:20 08:30:16 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:25:22 08:29:12 08:25:01 8
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:19:36 08:24:31 08:22:28 2
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 08:20:15 08:20:15 08:20:15 1

Results for Terenzo Bozzone (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:38:23 08:46:17 08:42:44 20
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 08:30:00 08:45:12 08:41:20 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:34:45 08:30:41 08:39:10 11
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 08:25:37 08:48:31 08:48:31 2

Results for Mathias Hecht (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:37:29 08:33:24 08:46:24 13
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:34:02 08:36:32 08:52:05 8
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 08:56:33 09:03:31 09:01:17 3
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:54:16 08:58:19 08:58:19 34

Results for Keegan Williams (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 08:40:11 08:55:41 08:55:41 4

Results for Petr Vabrousek (CZE)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:29:59 08:55:03 09:04:30 7
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:56:26 09:04:37 09:05:16 41
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:39:16 08:55:00 09:05:19 4
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 08:46:33 08:56:37 09:06:17 2
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:37:45 09:04:34 09:07:15 10
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:23:03 09:18:36 09:07:31 50
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 09:10:24 09:07:45 09:06:19 6
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:28:09 08:46:39 09:06:09 8
IM Florida 2008-11-01 08:23:00 08:51:26 09:08:26 3
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:04:42 09:07:20 09:10:39 33
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 08:55:20 09:02:17 09:11:09 2
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:53:05 09:18:46 09:12:37 21
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:42:26 09:49:54 09:11:33 71
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 08:41:59 09:00:01 09:03:30 4
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:10:45 09:14:56 09:04:20 54
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 09:03:12 08:56:42 09:01:19 7
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 08:44:54 09:00:48 09:03:03 8
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:12:17 09:17:43 09:04:20 54
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 08:49:46 08:49:46 08:49:46 4

Results for Hiroyuki Nishiuchi (JPN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:11:43 09:20:08 09:24:17 48
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:23:13 09:18:46 09:25:39 51
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:13:56 09:35:20 09:28:20 20
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:18:41 09:25:50 09:24:58 48
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:17:17 09:22:46 09:24:20 62
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 09:26:02 09:26:02 09:26:02 21

Results for Tuukka Miettinen (FIN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:02:49 09:27:59 09:27:59 5

Results for Scott Curry (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:19:39 09:28:11 09:40:52 52
IM Canada 2010-08-29 08:48:57 09:04:59 09:42:53 9
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:20:09 09:31:30 09:49:55 16
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:04:45 09:30:00 09:53:21 7
IM Canada 2008-08-24 08:52:36 09:13:10 09:58:31 11
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 09:18:50 09:36:59 10:09:23 8
IM Florida 2007-11-03 10:30:03 11:00:24 10:19:15 51
IM Canada 2007-08-26 11:32:04 11:47:59 10:03:41 30
IM Florida 2006-11-04 08:45:12 09:03:14 09:03:19 5
IM Canada 2006-08-27 08:55:57 09:03:24 09:03:24 5

Results for Brent Foster (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 10:15:13 10:43:05 09:43:01 22
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 09:02:10 09:18:35 09:08:39 15
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:54:41 08:59:56 09:03:09 34
IM Coeur d’Alene 2005-06-26 08:52:35 09:06:31 09:06:31 5

Results for Rich Munro (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:26:18 09:43:11 09:43:11 8

Results for Heinrich Sickl (AUT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:01:31 09:27:12 09:46:31 16
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:32:21 09:53:11 09:53:28 32
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:16:53 09:38:24 09:53:34 21
IM Florida 2006-11-04 09:56:35 10:17:04 10:01:19 34
IM Florida 2005-11-05 09:21:53 09:44:23 09:51:37 20
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 09:59:34 09:59:34 09:59:34 25

Results for James Bowstead (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:02:46 09:18:56 09:52:15 5
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 10:06:43 10:33:22 10:17:13 22
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 09:39:03 09:58:14 09:58:14 14

Results for John Carey (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:42:16 09:59:37 09:59:37 10

Results for Kerry Weeks (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Scott McGregor (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Gavin Scott (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Matt Burgess (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Mirinda Carfrae (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:58:36 09:06:49 09:08:06 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:13:59 09:09:37 09:09:37 2

Results for Joanna Lawn (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:43:08 09:52:01 09:38:39 20
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:14:35 09:31:07 09:36:35 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:34:45 09:30:13 09:37:28 7
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 09:23:08 09:48:38 09:38:47 2
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:45:33 09:48:23 09:36:51 14
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 09:16:00 09:40:26 09:34:15 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:26:47 09:34:03 09:32:40 4
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 09:20:02 09:38:35 09:32:14 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:32:48 09:37:09 09:29:40 7
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:14:53 09:20:20 09:25:06 4
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 09:30:14 09:30:14 09:30:14 1

Results for Sarah Pollett (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:45:44 10:03:11 10:03:11 4

Results for Britta Martin (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:47:11 10:04:41 10:13:15 5
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 09:56:18 10:23:19 10:23:19 8

Results for Kate Bevilaqua (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:19:31 10:28:58 10:16:25 34
IM Lake Placid 2010-07-25 09:53:39 10:04:59 10:13:18 4
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 10:18:12 10:36:37 10:15:56 7
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 09:20:06 09:44:43 10:07:09 2
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:00:56 10:08:38 10:17:03 25
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 10:07:42 10:13:41 10:23:00 31
IM Coeur d’Alene 2005-06-26 10:16:40 10:32:48 10:32:48 2

Results for Maki Nishiuchi (JPN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:31:57 10:26:58 10:26:58 35

Results for Donna Phelan (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:19:20 10:28:46 10:30:50 33
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:30:38 10:33:41 10:33:41 35

Results for Desiree Ficker (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 11:07:48 11:11:02 10:51:22 42
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:56:09 10:19:11 10:47:42 6
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 11:09:30 11:18:12 10:54:05 7
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:40:43 10:48:55 10:47:15 47
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:24:02 09:28:19 10:46:42 2
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 09:44:56 10:02:39 11:17:53 4
IM Lake Placid 2005-07-24 14:01:55 14:07:39 12:01:06 20
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 09:48:26 09:48:26 09:48:26 2

Results for Amanda Balding (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2008-11-01 10:09:38 10:44:06 11:22:07 9
IM Canada 2008-08-24 11:13:05 11:39:05 11:32:53 16
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 10:53:05 11:21:47 11:30:32 13
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 11:49:33 11:58:38 11:35:14 56
IM Canada 2007-08-26 10:56:14 11:11:20 11:11:20 18

Results for Jo Carrel (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Laura-Clare Whelan (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Michelle Mitchell (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Samantha Warriner (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Hannah Lawrence (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Kirsten Molloy (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Michelle Bremer (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Renee Lane (AUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Belinda Harper (NZL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Ironman New Zealand – Quick Preview

I’m preparing a longer post looking at the upcoming IM New Zealand race. For now, I have two short teasers.

A Look at the Course

Taupo has a course rating of 20:32 – compared to Kona’s 3:49. It is one of the quicker courses – about as fast as IM Arizona, but still slower than IM Florida by about 5 minutes. While the toad conditions on the bike are probably not too good, the course is still reasonably flat and there are no extreme weather conditions – in fact the climate sounds almost perfect for a good race. (Of course you have the exception with the 2006 race, where strong winds even led to a canceled swim and a shortened race.)

The course rating of 20:32 means that on an average day Cameron Brown (rated 8:37:41) is expected to finish around 8:17:19.

Male Pro Participants

Based on the list from the IM New Zealand website, here are the male professional participants and their current ratings:

Rank Name Nation Rating
1 Cameron Brown NZL 08:37:51
2 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:42:44
3 Mathias Hecht SWI 08:46:24
4 Keegan Williams NZL 08:55:41
5 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:04:30
6 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:24:17
7 Tuukka Miettinen FIN 09:27:59
8 Scott Curry CAN 09:40:52
9 Brent Foster NZL 09:43:01
10 Rich Munro AUS 09:43:11
11 Heinrich Sickl AUT 09:46:31
12 James Bowstead NZL 09:52:15
13 John Carey AUS 09:59:37
14 Matt Burgess NZL unrated
15 Gavin Scott NZL unrated
16 Scott McGregor NZL unrated
17 Kerry Weeks NZL unrated

Based on the ratings, Cameron Brown still has to be considered the favorite. However, Terenzo Bozzone and Mathias Hecht are not so far off that Cam can be certain to win for the 10th time. After these three athletes, Keegan Williams and Petr Vabrousek may be good enough for a podium finish if one of the top 3 ranked athletes run into issues. After the top 5, the field is not very deep and the ratings are quite a bit slower than the top athletes.

There will be more ….

As noted above, I’m working on some more information:

  • predictions for the women’s race
  • details on the results I have on file for the participants

Please let me know in the comments if there is something else that you’d like to know and that I may be able to answer by analyzing the athlete’s previous results.

TTR – Adding female Pros and IM Florida

I’ve put some more work into TTR – Thorsten’s Triathlon Rating. With IM Florida I added a third course (and six more races from 2005 to 2010) and I also managed to include female pros.

The amount of data is getting quite impressive by now:

  • 3 courses (IM Hawaii, IM Arizona and IM Florida)
  • 19 races (6 times each for Hawaii and Florida, 7 races for Arizona)
  • 632 athletes (412 male and 220 female)
  • 1,513 individual results

One thing that I have to think of now is to make sure that I’m working on high quality data – I was able to catch a few obvious problems, but I have to do some more systematic work on that.

An interesting little tidbit: The athlete with the most results in my database is Petr Vabrousek with 14 results! He’s also way ahead of the next athletes, who “only” have 9 races (Christophe Bastie, Michael Lovato, Heather Gollnick and Tamara Kozulina).

Adding IM Florida and new male TOP10

Adding IM Florida did not require any changes in the methodology. So the changes in the TOP10 are a reflection of the Florida results:

  • As was to be expected, IM Florida is another fast course, in fact it is even faster than Arizona (course rating: 25:53, compared to 20:38 for Arizona and 3:57 for Hawaii)
  • Dirk Bockel moved a few spots down with his 8:21 in Florida 2010 (which was adjusted to an 8:44).
  • Raynard Tissink fell out of the top 10 – his two great Kona results were joined by a not-too-stellar 8:40 in Florida 2009. He was replaced by Rasmus Henning.

Here is the new (male) TOP10 list:

Rank Name Rating # Races
1 McCormack, Chris 08:20:57 5
2 Alexander, Craig 08:20:58 4
3 Raelert, Andreas 08:24:05 3
4 Llanos, Eneko 08:29:15 5
5 Al-Sultan, Faris 08:29:40 6
6 Bockel, Dirk 08:34:04 3
7 Bracht, Timo 08:34:58 6
8 Vanhoenacker, Marino 08:35:47 5
9 Henning, Rasmus 08:35:58 3
10 Potts, Andy 08:36:37 3

Macca is still in the #1 spot, but it’s getting very close between him and Crowie.

Adding female Pros: Women’s TOP10

The main challenge this time was adding the females into the mix. I wanted the male results to be pretty stable and not change much when the women were added into the mix. It was clear that there would be some small changes in the course ratings and adjustments for the race, but I wanted these to be pretty small. In order to achieve this, I had to play a bit around with the calculations until I settled on a slightly changed algorithm. (The change is a bit technical: The adjustments are calculated as a percentage of race time instead of absolute change in seconds. In order to show a course rating as a time, that percentage has to be changed back to a time by applying it to a 9 hour race.)

With this new results and updated algorithm, here are the women’s TOP10:

Rank Name Rating Last Race # Races Total Rank
1 Wellington, Chrissie 09:01:40 IM Arizona on 2010-11-21 4 54
2 Carfrae, Mirinda 09:07:51 IM Hawaii on 2010-10-09 2 67
3 Van Vlerken, Yvonne 09:28:09 IM Hawaii on 2010-10-09 2 114
4 Jones, Michellie 09:29:42 IM Arizona on 2008-04-13 4 119
5 Steffen, Caroline 09:32:19 IM Hawaii on 2010-10-09 2 133
6 Berasategui, Virginia 09:33:21 IM Hawaii on 2010-10-09 4 136
7 McGlone, Samantha 09:34:09 IM Hawaii on 2010-10-09 4 141
8 Thuerig, Karin 09:35:33 IM Hawaii on 2010-10-09 2 146
9 Preston, Rebecca 09:35:55 IM Hawaii on 2007-10-13 2 148
10 Lawn, Joanna 09:38:58 IM Hawaii on 2010-10-09 6 153

The first two spots are not a surprise – Chrissie and Rinnie are currently the top athletes. What is interesting is the large gap to the next spots – more than 20 minutes! For me, Michellie in #4 was a bit of a surprise – her last race was in 2008 and to me I did not really think of her as an active athlete that might show up in the ratings.

Another interesting thing is the Total Rank that shows how the females would rank in all athletes (i.e. male and female). Chrissie, for example would be ranked #54 – which means that there are 53 males that have a better rating than she has. Even if some of her great results from Roth are not in the database yet, it’s hard to see her crack the Top10 in Hawaii or the male ratings.

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