Thorsten

Race Conditions

Conditions in Melbourne were again pretty quick this year, an adjustment of 18:45 puts this year’s race in the neighborhood of races such as IM Arizona or IM Brasil. The conditions seemed to be especially favorable on the run, the run adjustment of 7:07 makes the times even quicker than the (apparently short) run in 2012.

Male Race Results

Dirk Bockel was the most patient athlete on race day: He took the lead at about 35k in the run, and held on to it until the finish.

Axel Zeebroek pushed the pace on the bike (eventually finishing 7th), then he was overtaken by Paul Matthews (who held on for 2nd). For a while David Dellow looked like the winner, but he spent his matches too early and staggered over the line in 3rd place and was promptly taken to the med-tent and was missing from the ceremony. Craig Alexander had the fastest run split in what appears to be his final Ironman race. Marino had a solid IM, always being close to the front and finishing in 6th.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Dirk Bockel	LUX	00:45:35	04:23:05	02:48:35	08:01:02	-08:37
2	Paul Matthews	AUS	00:45:34	04:29:02	02:44:09	08:02:14	-03:16
3	David Dellow	AUS	00:45:44	04:21:35	02:51:41	08:03:07	-10:28
4	Michael Weiss	AUT	00:52:39	04:20:50	02:45:17	08:03:46	-09:52
5	Craig Alexander	AUS	00:47:45	04:30:29	02:43:52	08:05:47	-00:07
6	Marino Vanhoenacker	BEL	00:47:54	04:24:29	02:52:20	08:08:25	00:32
7	Axel Zeebroek	BEL	00:45:26	04:21:51	03:01:32	08:12:35	-25:22
8	Christian Kemp	AUS	00:45:34	04:28:15	02:56:19	08:14:10	-32:34
9	Christian Kramer	GER	00:46:32	04:36:56	02:47:39	08:15:10	-10:51
10	Peter Robertson	AUS	00:45:52	04:29:13	02:57:14	08:16:30	n/a
11	Daniel Halksworth	GBR	00:45:31	04:33:00	03:00:44	08:22:44	-09:40
12	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	00:45:31	04:33:06	03:06:15	08:28:08	-53:27
13	Luke McKenzie	AUS	00:49:39	04:34:34	02:59:38	08:28:40	07:12
14	Casey Munro	AUS	00:45:39	04:29:04	03:10:38	08:29:41	n/a
15	Sylvain Rota	FRA	00:52:40	04:39:58	02:56:03	08:32:48	-12:30
16	Jimmy Johnsen	DEN	00:49:46	04:47:36	02:51:54	08:33:06	03:38
17	Courtney Atkinson	AUS	00:45:33	04:36:43	03:09:13	08:35:07	n/a
18	Luke Whitmore	AUS	00:54:59	04:46:19	02:50:40	08:36:19	-12:41
19	Philip Graves	GBR	00:46:12	04:27:48	03:20:06	08:38:04	03:11
20	Benjamin Sanson	FRA	00:45:23	04:28:55	03:19:29	08:38:43	-28:17
21	Joshua Rix	AUS	00:50:51	04:46:17	03:05:39	08:46:48	05:12
22	Jarmo Hast	FIN	00:50:43	04:46:35	03:07:23	08:49:06	13:56
23	David Naesvik	SWE	00:56:38	04:44:43	03:07:20	08:52:54	-00:30
24	Mike Aigroz	SUI	00:47:44	04:30:33	03:36:09	08:58:04	35:33
25	Balazs Csoke	HUN	00:47:47	04:38:48	03:37:02	09:07:45	18:36
26	Adam Gordon	NZL	00:56:22	05:12:52	03:34:10	09:49:02	50:23
27	Arland Macasieb	PHI	01:05:38	05:07:32	03:51:45	10:16:44	24:33
28	Dan Brown	PHI	01:05:29	05:32:14	05:08:48	11:53:17	1:25:56
29	Paul Amey	GBR	00:50:41			DNF
30	Mathias Hecht	SUI	00:47:52			DNF
31	Paul Wisniewski	POL	00:55:00	04:46:32		DNF
32	Todd Israel	AUS	00:50:38	04:46:37		DNF
33	Paul Ambrose	GBR	00:47:42	04:30:34		DNF

Female Race Results

Caroline Steffen quickly overcame her deficit to Mary Beth Ellis after the swim.

The two rode (legally) together for the rest of the bike, then „Xena“ pulled away on the run. She seemed to be struggling a bit towards the end of the run, but nonetheless finished in sub-9 hours and more than four minutes ahead of MBE. The surprise 3rd was Kim Schwabenbauer with the best run time, overtaking Rebekah Keat in the last few kilometers. Asa Lundstrom managed to take 5th (probably enough for a Kona slot), while Angela Duncan (Naeth) took some more risks in her 2nd Ironman, was in a good position after the bike, but ran out of gas on the run.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Caroline Steffen	SUI	00:52:03	04:56:38	03:04:44	08:57:57	04:10
2	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	00:50:00	04:59:36	03:08:48	09:02:15	-01:44
3	Kim Schwabenbauer	USA	01:03:32	05:00:13	03:01:34	09:10:06	-11:39
4	Rebekah Keat	AUS	00:52:50	05:01:45	03:11:59	09:11:06	-01:11
5	Asa Lundstroem	SWE	00:59:46	05:02:02	03:10:28	09:16:09	-08:50
6	Angela Duncan	CAN	00:58:32	04:51:20	03:27:50	09:21:11	-20:22
7	Mareen Hufe	GER	00:59:45	04:59:06	03:18:40	09:21:40	-00:16
8	Michelle Duffield	AUS	00:59:41	05:17:20	03:12:44	09:34:30	-19:54
9	Tracy Douglas	AUS	01:06:50	05:13:31	03:16:23	09:40:41	n/a
10	Tine Holst	DEN	01:09:56	05:01:26	03:30:23	09:47:30	-06:40
11	Kristy Hallett	AUS	01:03:23	05:13:44	03:30:34	09:52:18	-38:39
12	Rebecca Hoschke	AUS	01:03:26	05:17:25	04:07:04	10:34:33	1:05:07
13	Keiko Tanaka	JPN	00:56:22	05:07:44	05:51:22	11:59:22	1:18:59
14	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	00:56:22			DNF
15	Stephanie Jones	USA	01:03:29			DNF

Photo Credits: Jay Prasuhn

Update (March 25th): Both Jennie Hansen and Celine Schaerer have announced that they won’t start.

Update (March 26th): As per Thomas Gerlach, Bryan Rhodes and Jonathan Shearon are not starting. I’m trying to get confirmation from WTC.

Please let me know your top picks on IM-Predictions! We want to put up a page for most of the Ironman-distance races leading up to Kona, and will have some great prizes for the best players.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Timo Bracht	GER	00:53:23	04:37:34	02:51:39	08:26:48
2	Trevor Delsaut	FRA	00:57:43	04:42:25	02:48:02	08:33:26
3	Jozsef Major	HUN	00:58:42	04:41:03	02:48:30	08:33:57

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Erika Csomor	HUN				09:35:34
2	Michelle Vesterby	DEN	00:55:12	05:22:36	03:14:18	09:36:31
3	Lisa Ribes	USA	01:04:23	05:21:41	03:07:15	09:38:35

Course Records

Last year was the first time that Los Cabos hosted an Ironman.

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:26:48	Timo Bracht	2013-03-17
Swim	overall	00:49:25	Andres Castillo	2013-03-17
Bike	overall	04:37:34	Timo Bracht	2013-03-17
Run	overall	02:48:02	Trevor Delsaut	2013-03-17
Total	female	09:35:34	Erika Csomor	2013-03-17
Swim	female	00:55:12	Michelle Vesterby	2013-03-17
Bike	female	05:09:23	Mareen Hufe	2013-03-17
Run	female	03:07:15	Lisa Ribes	2013-03-17

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Los Cabos is -04:28. This is just based on the 2013 race where a lot of athletes were surprised by the tough bike course. Apparently, there have been changes to the bike course, it is now three laps with less hills.

Race Adjustments for IM Los Cabos

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2013	-04:28	-02:22	-03:04	01:57	31	-04:28	-02:22	-03:04	01:57

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Los Cabos has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Timo Bracht is not back to defend his 2013 title, so last year’s 2nd place finisher Trevor Delsaut gets to wear bib #1. However, he is not my favorite to win the race, instead I have Daniel Fontana and TJ Tollakson (with very similar capabilities, the difference could be Daniel’s better run). Behind these two, there are more than ten athletes of a similar overall capability. One athlete that should be close to the front for most of the day is Jan Van Berkel – he’s a great swimmer, has a decent bike, and unless he explodes on the run (as he did last summer when he was leading in Switzerland), he may even be able to win the race.

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	2	Daniel Fontana	ITA	08:41:34	08:37:17	00:48:32	04:43:22	03:00:04	31
2	4	TJ Tollakson	USA	08:43:21	08:39:03	00:48:53	04:39:22	03:05:40	40
3	13	Stephen Bayliss	GBR	08:54:02	08:49:39	00:47:50	04:50:04	03:05:03	75
4	28	Ezequiel Morales	ARG	08:56:08	08:51:44	00:53:08	04:56:32	02:57:39	(86)
5	18	Swen Sundberg	GER	08:56:31	08:52:07	00:52:19	04:45:20	03:10:18	87
6	3	Matthew Russell	USA	08:59:21	08:54:55	01:01:32	04:47:07	02:58:53	101
7	1	Trevor Delsaut	FRA	09:01:35	08:57:08	00:55:15	04:54:24	03:01:38	107
8	9	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	09:01:37	08:57:10	00:54:50	04:52:50	03:03:02	109
9	6	Patrick Evoe	USA	09:02:12	08:57:45	00:55:36	04:46:36	03:08:31	115
10	10	Jan Van Berkel	SUI	09:02:56	08:58:28	00:47:18	04:45:36	03:15:11	(121)
11	24	Jonathan Shearon	USA	09:05:21	09:00:52	00:53:35	04:46:19	03:14:41	134
12	21	Todd Skipworth	AUS	09:06:54	09:02:24	00:45:53	04:40:03	03:24:39	(140)
13	11	Mike Schifferle	SUI	09:07:43	09:03:13	01:00:17	04:51:08	03:05:22	143
14	14	Andres Castillo	COL	09:09:53	09:05:22	00:47:47	04:53:49	03:20:00	148
15	15	Dan Mcintosh	USA	09:10:46	09:06:14	00:52:03	04:52:55	03:10:13	152
16	12	Derek Garcia	USA	09:13:04	09:08:31	00:54:04	04:47:24	03:18:11	161
17	17	Domenico Passuello	ITA	09:14:43	09:10:10	00:55:23	04:51:13	03:10:27	(167)
18	25	Scott Defilippis	USA	09:22:16	09:17:39	00:57:11	05:04:58	03:06:16	191
19	23	Allan Villanueva	MEX	09:23:21	09:18:43	00:53:40	04:58:11	03:21:47	(195)
20	7	Greg Close	USA	09:26:55	09:22:16	00:57:30	05:01:22	03:10:58	(201)
21	5	Bryan Rhodes	NZL	09:27:30	09:22:50	00:48:51	05:02:29	03:27:08	204
22	22	Douglas MacLean	USA	09:27:42	09:23:02	01:00:17	05:03:51	03:09:31	205
23	29	Martin Lamontagne Lacasse	CAN	09:50:41	09:45:50	00:55:05	05:14:38	03:26:21	288
24	19	Jim Lubinski	USA	09:54:17	09:49:24	01:03:21	05:15:03	03:26:35	302
25	26	Sergio Quezada	MEX	10:12:47	10:07:45	00:51:40	05:18:41	03:48:54	355
26	20	Josef Svoboda	CZE	12:01:45	11:55:49	01:11:57	05:56:39	04:28:48	419
	27	James Duff	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	16	Brent Mcburney	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	8	Matthew Curbeau	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Linsey Corbin is the obvious choice to win the race. She was injured for much of 2013, managed to get in race form just in time for Kona, then took some time off to properly heal and also switched her training environment (moving to Bend, Orgeon). However, I expect Celine Schaerer to give Linsey a big challenge: She’s the better swimmer than Linsey, probably bikes on the same level, so it should come down to the run to decide the race. (Unfortunately, Celine won’t be able to start.) Other notable athletes in the field include Jennie Hansen (recent winner of IM Lake Placid), Ashley Clifford (2nd at IM Florida with a sub-9h time), and super-fish Haley Chura (first out of the water in Kona).

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	35	Linsey Corbin	USA	09:28:52	09:24:12	00:57:24	05:12:05	03:09:02	8
2	48	Celine Schaerer	SUI	09:39:25	09:34:39	00:47:39	05:09:47	03:18:38	(26)
3	55	Jennie Hansen	USA	09:43:37	09:38:49	01:04:26	05:15:37	03:12:04	30
4	54	Kathleen Calkins	USA	09:45:22	09:40:33	00:57:15	05:17:22	03:19:48	34
5	41	Ashley Clifford	USA	09:45:45	09:40:56	00:53:53	05:29:46	03:12:05	37
6	52	Mackenzie Madison	USA	09:48:19	09:43:29	01:02:00	05:19:38	03:13:42	43
7	37	Lisa Ribes	USA	09:49:16	09:44:26	01:04:27	05:19:37	03:14:33	46
8	43	Haley Chura	USA	09:53:32	09:48:39	00:49:06	05:23:52	03:30:22	55
9	44	Katy Blakemore	USA	09:54:55	09:50:02	00:52:57	05:27:50	03:17:00	(58)
10	36	Carrie Lester	AUS	09:55:29	09:50:35	00:56:34	05:20:06	03:27:09	60
11	38	Beth Shutt	USA	10:05:53	10:00:54	01:00:23	05:25:43	03:26:44	85
12	46	Sara Gross	CAN	10:06:19	10:01:20	00:56:44	05:39:57	03:20:38	86
13	45	Karen Thibodeau	CAN	10:09:03	10:04:03	00:54:28	05:24:36	03:22:56	(92)
14	56	Brooke Brown	CAN	10:12:09	10:07:07	01:05:12	05:21:51	03:20:23	(93)
15	49	Olesya Prystayko	UKR	10:16:26	10:11:22	01:00:03	05:27:46	03:38:04	99
16	50	Saleta Castro	ESP	10:19:34	10:14:29	00:55:44	05:29:45	03:40:57	105
17	39	Katharina Grohmann	GER	10:20:23	10:15:17	01:14:15	05:29:13	03:17:45	108
18	53	Anne Basso	FRA	10:22:57	10:17:50	00:58:39	05:34:02	03:43:03	114
19	47	Molly Roohi	USA	10:37:16	10:32:02	01:06:29	05:31:39	03:27:55	(129)
20	51	Caroline Gregory	USA	10:37:26	10:32:12	00:57:51	05:45:21	03:43:02	129
21	42	Kristina Wiegand	GER	11:32:05	11:26:24	01:07:25	06:21:46	04:06:53	(147)
	40	Alyssa Godesky	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• TJ Tollakson: 24% (3-1)
• Daniel Fontana: 21% (4-1)
• Trevor Delsaut: 20% (4-1)
• Ezequiel Morales: 11% (8-1)
• Stephen Bayliss: 10% (9-1)
• Scott Defilippis: 3% (30-1)
• Swen Sundberg: 3% (31-1)
• Patrick Evoe: 2% (40-1)
• Jan Van Berkel: 2% (58-1)
• Matthew Russell: 2% (60-1)

Female Race Participants

• Linsey Corbin: 63% (1-1)
• Celine Schaerer: 10% (9-1)
• Jennie Hansen: 7% (13-1)
• Ashley Clifford: 5% (20-1)
• Carrie Lester: 4% (25-1)
• Lisa Ribes: 4% (25-1)
• Sara Gross: 3% (32-1)
• Mackenzie Madison: 2% (51-1)

Based on athlete’s previous results and their resulting strengths and weaknesses, I can come up with scenarios of how the race might unfold. The graphs show for various points along the course who could be in the lead and who is back by how much. They are based only on previous race results. Other important aspects, such as the course dynamics (hills, wind etc.) and race dynamics (for example groups forming), are not taken into account. However, the graphs give a good indication of what athletes we can expect at the front of the race in the various stages.

If you want to make your own predictions for the Melbourne race, check out IM-Predictions.com and let us know your top picks!

Men’s Race

Here’s a look at the potential development of the men’s race:

Swim

The strongest rated swimmer is Paul Matthews, but athletes like Dirk Bockel or David Dellow should be within one minute of him. There’s probably another group about two minutes back, among the contenders there should be Crowie and Marino. Based on his swim rating, Luke McKenzie is in the middle between these two groups – a lot will depend on his form on race day.

Another likely scenario is a cautious start to the day resulting in all of these athletes coming out of the water together in one big group.

Bike

According to the previous results, Dirk Bockel should quickly bridge up to the front and lead the race for most of the bike. Nominally, the strongest bike rider is Marino, I’m sure he’ll try to ride up to Dirk and pass him, but a lot will depend on their positions after the swim. Based on his last bike ride in Kona, Luke McKenzie could do a lot better than what the average of his previous results show in the graph.

My expectation is that Dirk, Marino and Luke will work together for a while to distance the stronger runners such as Crowie and Cam Brown. Paul Matthews and David Dellow could also go with the front group on the bike, or they might work with Crowie to save their legs for the run.

Run

As usual, there should be a lot of position changes to the run. If Crowie comes off the bike within about five minutes after the leaders and is able to show his usual run form, he has an excellent chance of winning the race. By the half-way mark he should have made up most of the difference. By then, we will also know if Luke McKenzie is able to run close to his Kona form.

The winner will have to run the marathon under 2:45, and whoever is able to do that on race day should at least be able to get a podium spot. I have a handful of athletes finishing within just a few minutes at the front, so we can look forward to some exciting racing.

Women’s Race

On paper, the women’s race looks to be a lot less exciting:

Swim

My top 3 rated athletes are also the strongest swimmers. I expect Mary Beth to lead after the swim, but closely followed by Caroline and Bek. Maybe Kate Bevilaqua will be able to stay close to them, she has been improving a lot in the swim over the last year.

All the rest of the women’s field will be at least eight minutes back, and there will probably be five to ten athletes coming out of the water in a bigger group or just a few seconds apart.

Bike

Nominally, „Xena“ should be about 10 minutes quicker on the bike than Mary Beth. Things may develop differently on race day, depending on the race plans of these two athletes. I can’t really see Bek sticking close to Xena and MBE, but based on her recent 70.3 results, Bek seems to be in great shape.

Among the rest of the field, the strongest bike riders are Natascha Badmann and Mareen Hufe, and they may even ride up to Bek. However, the rest of the field should stay within 15 minutes of each other, so a lot will remains to be decided on the run.

Run

Even if it comes down to the run, Caroline should be the strongest athlete. I can’t really see her being beaten by Mary Beth, but there is still a lot that can happen on race day. At the front end of the race, I don’t expect too many position changes. Mary Beth, Bek and also Natascha Badmann have similar running abilities, so they should finish in the same order as after the bike.

The story is different in the race for the remaining good KPR points (5th is good for 2090 points and 8th for 1070, points quickly drop off after that). There are at least five athletes that I have finishing within just a few minutes (Kim Schwabenbauer, Mareen Hufe, Asa Lundstrom, Rebecca Hoschke and Stephanie Jones). Then there is also the „wildcard“ of Angela Duncan (Naeth), who probably hasn’t shown her true IM potential when she raced IM Lake Tahoe (finishing fourth which is where I expect her to finish in Melbourne as well). There will be some exciting racing, but unfortunately we won’t be getting too much information as it’s quite hard to keep track of these athletes in the middle of the field.

Update (March 19th): There have been a few withdrawals (thanks to Asa Lundstrom and Tammy Barker for sending me updates): Most notably, Cam Brown and Natascha Badmann are not starting. Also, Matt Burgess, Tom Rodgers and Kym Jaenke are out. 

With IM Melbourne, the first of the Regional Championships in the 2014 Qualifying cycle is coming. The opportunity to win 4.000 KPR points has attracted a lot of athletes looking to get a good part of the points need to qualify.

I also have a couple of other interesting side-projects going on around IM Melbourne: Luke Dragstra and I have set up IM-Predicitions.com, where you can submit your picks for IM Melbourne, and maybe even win a nice prize. We also have the companion IM-Predictions podcast discussing the pro field in IM Melbourne.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

If the times from last year’s race look a bit strange, that’s because the swim was shortened to about 1.7k because of rough conditions. The shortened swim also helped to “speed up“ the bike and run times.

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Eneko Llanos	ESP	00:20:30	04:28:50	02:43:35	07:36:08
2	Marino Vanhoenacker	BEL	00:21:45	04:22:32	02:51:28	07:38:59
3	Craig Alexander	AUS	00:20:33	04:29:03	02:46:44	07:39:37

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Corinne Abraham	GBR	00:28:23	04:42:09	02:56:50	08:10:56
2	Yvonne Van Vlerken	NED	00:27:09	04:55:01	03:00:46	08:26:40
3	Caroline Steffen	SUI	00:24:34	04:53:17	03:09:23	08:31:22

Course Records

Because of the shortened swim, I discarded all 2013 results for course records, leaving only the first edition of the race from 2012. Even these times are a bit suspicious, at a minimum the run was a bit short.

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	07:57:44	Craig Alexander	2012-03-24
Swim	overall	00:47:13	Marko Albert	2012-03-24
Bike	overall	04:24:43	Craig Alexander	2012-03-24
Run	overall	02:38:46	Craig Alexander	2012-03-24
Total	female	08:34:51	Caroline Steffen	2012-03-24
Swim	female	00:52:34	Rachel Joyce	2012-03-24
Bike	female	04:35:29	Caroline Steffen	2012-03-24
Run	female	02:58:29	Mirinda Carfrae	2012-03-24

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Melbourne is 10:46. (As noted above, the course rating is based just on the 2012 results and may not be a good basis for the predicting the 2014 times.)

Race Adjustments for IM Melbourne

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2012	10:46	-01:21	10:45	03:50	41	10:46	-01:21	10:45	03:50

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Melbourne has 4000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 125k$. It is the first of the Regional Championships in the 2014, attracting an interesting field.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	36	Paul Matthews	AUS	08:12:15	08:22:15	00:46:30	04:38:36	02:50:41	(2)
2	2	Craig Alexander	AUS	08:12:45	08:22:46	00:47:51	04:38:39	02:52:18	3
3	1	Marino Vanhoenacker	BEL	08:14:47	08:24:51	00:48:42	04:32:00	02:59:10	6
4	5	Dirk Bockel	LUX	08:16:17	08:26:22	00:47:28	04:36:42	02:58:30	10
5	4	Cameron Brown	NZL	08:18:30	08:28:38	00:49:23	04:41:18	02:53:36	12
6	6	David Dellow	AUS	08:20:12	08:30:22	00:47:23	04:41:51	02:57:44	15
7	45	Michael Weiss	AUT	08:20:16	08:30:26	00:54:52	04:30:19	02:58:48	(16)
8	3	Luke McKenzie	AUS	08:28:47	08:39:08	00:47:21	04:37:35	03:09:48	42
9	21	Mike Aigroz	SUI	08:30:49	08:41:12	00:48:49	04:42:14	03:05:12	47
10	10	Christian Kramer	GER	08:32:48	08:43:13	00:47:45	04:45:22	03:02:52	52
11	23	Paul Amey	GBR	08:35:31	08:46:00	00:50:21	04:49:19	03:01:49	59
12	32	Mathias Hecht	SUI	08:36:46	08:47:16	00:48:08	04:45:25	03:08:17	(65)
13	8	Jimmy Johnsen	DEN	08:36:47	08:47:17	00:50:19	04:52:30	02:58:49	66
14	9	Daniel Halksworth	GBR	08:39:19	08:49:52	00:47:30	04:47:25	03:07:48	77
15	22	Paul Ambrose	GBR	08:40:22	08:50:57	00:48:33	04:41:53	03:16:16	81
16	44	Swen Sundberg	GER	08:41:31	08:52:07	00:52:19	04:45:20	03:10:18	87
17	30	Philip Graves	GBR	08:42:16	08:52:53	00:47:33	04:42:48	03:17:06	93
18	31	Jarmo Hast	FIN	08:42:55	08:53:33	00:50:27	04:56:03	03:00:49	97
19	7	Axel Zeebroek	BEL	08:44:24	08:55:04	00:47:24	04:45:56	03:15:10	102
20	33	Todd Israel	AUS	08:45:27	08:56:08	00:49:55	04:53:32	03:08:52	106
21	39	Joshua Rix	AUS	08:49:09	08:59:54	00:49:43	04:45:18	03:21:16	123
22	27	Guy Crawford	NZL	08:49:42	09:00:28	00:48:47	04:45:04	03:24:56	130
23	42	Sylvain Rota	FRA	08:52:18	09:03:07	00:51:37	04:43:16	03:20:12	(142)
24	34	Christian Kemp	AUS	08:53:04	09:03:54	00:48:02	04:52:45	03:05:59	(145)
25	46	Luke Whitmore	AUS	08:56:02	09:06:56	00:53:48	05:04:30	03:03:22	155
26	28	Balazs Csoke	HUN	08:57:16	09:08:11	00:48:35	04:54:43	03:20:25	160
27	38	David Naesvik	SWE	09:00:55	09:11:55	00:55:15	04:50:18	03:19:27	174
28	48	Paul Wisniewski	POL	09:07:34	09:18:42	00:49:45	04:45:00	03:40:54	(195)
29	29	Adam Gordon	NZL	09:07:59	09:19:07	00:52:32	04:56:07	03:11:50	(195)
30	26	Matt Burgess	NZL	09:08:32	09:19:41	00:49:56	04:49:27	03:24:39	(196)
31	43	Benjamin Sanson	FRA	09:13:46	09:25:01	00:47:01	06:12:23	03:41:03	(211)
32	47	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	09:27:42	09:39:14	00:47:34	04:51:08	03:54:34	262
33	25	Dan Brown	PHI	09:40:20	09:52:08	unrated	unrated	unrated	(311)
34	35	Arland Macasieb	PHI	10:01:22	10:13:36	01:02:41	05:30:18	03:39:06	369
	37	Casey Munro	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	41	Tom Rodgers	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	40	Peter Robertson	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	24	Courtney Atkinson	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	11	Caroline Steffen	SUI	09:01:28	09:12:28	00:51:46	04:59:39	03:14:44	176
2	12	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	09:11:36	09:22:49	00:51:41	05:10:42	03:14:49	202
3	14	Natascha Badmann	SUI	09:16:51	09:28:10	01:00:58	05:03:44	03:15:17	224
4	13	Rebekah Keat	AUS	09:20:03	09:31:26	00:53:27	05:15:35	03:17:14	235
5	20	Kim Schwabenbauer	USA	09:29:17	09:40:51	01:02:21	05:17:23	03:16:51	268
6	18	Mareen Hufe	GER	09:29:52	09:41:27	01:00:37	05:08:20	03:26:40	273
7	15	Asa Lundstroem	SWE	09:32:39	09:44:18	01:00:00	05:15:36	03:20:48	280
8	16	Rebecca Hoschke	AUS	09:39:41	09:51:28	01:01:17	05:19:25	03:21:42	307
9	17	Stephanie Jones	USA	09:41:50	09:53:40	01:05:44	05:19:59	03:20:42	316
10	49	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	09:45:21	09:57:15	00:56:08	05:21:33	03:33:58	327
11	19	Angela Naeth	CAN	09:49:04	10:01:03	00:57:57	05:10:53	03:26:23	(344)
12	55	Keiko Tanaka	JPN	09:53:18	10:05:22	00:54:38	05:30:13	03:27:09	(353)
13	51	Michelle Duffield	AUS	10:02:07	10:14:21	01:00:00	05:33:00	03:27:55	(373)
14	53	Tine Holst	DEN	10:02:19	10:14:34	01:07:21	05:20:18	03:37:26	374
15	52	Kristy Hallett	AUS	10:38:32	10:51:31	01:01:45	05:35:06	03:52:43	(411)
	54	Kym Jaenke	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	50	Tracy Douglas	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

There is a very interesting mix of athletes on the start list, all of them with some issue. Paul Matthews has the best rating, but his two results are from 2012 and he hasn’t finished an IM since then. Crowie is probably the biggest name, but he has already said goodbye to IM racing after Kona. Marino Vanhoenacker and Dirk Bockel ended their 2013 seasons with frustrating DNFs in Cozumel and Kona. Cameron Brown has just raced New Zealand.

• Craig Alexander: 36% (2-1)
• Marino Vanhoenacker: 19% (4-1)
• Dirk Bockel: 14% (6-1)
• Cameron Brown: 10% (9-1)
• David Dellow: 6% (16-1)
• Paul Matthews: 5% (17-1)
• Luke McKenzie: 5% (20-1)

Female Race Participants

• Caroline Steffen: 61% (1-1)
• Mary Beth Ellis: 24% (3-1)
• Rebekah Keat: 8% (12-1)
• Natascha Badmann: 4% (22-1)

Who do you think is going to win?

At IM-Predicitions.com you can submit your own picks for IM Melbourne, and maybe even win a nice prize!

Interested in more information?

My friend Luke Dragstra and I also have a new podcast called IM-Predictions discussing the pro field in Ironman-distance races. The first episode is focused on IM Melbourne and has just been released!

Abu Dhabi is one of the better known long triathlons that don’t use the “standard” Ironman distance of 3.8k/2.4mi swim, 180k/112mi bike and a marathon (42.2k or 26.2 mi). I want to post a bit more on non-IM long distance races, but I will just post the start list and my Ironman-distance based ranking and ratings. However, with the different lengths I won’t include the results in athlete’s or course’s ratings, I can’t calculate odds and I also won’t be able to predict finishing times. (So instead of „predictions“ I’ll call these posts just „start lists“.)

The Abu Dhabi Long Distance race is held over distances of 3k swim, 200k bike and 20k run – basically the swim is almost the same as an Ironman, the bike a bit longer, and the run significantly shorter. This allows for a much shorter recovery than an IM, and as it’s pretty early in the Northern Hemisphere season, it can be used as a great early race or fitness test. It also offers good prize money: 40.000 US$ for each of the winners and 125k total purse. In addition, the organizers probably help with travel costs and accommodation, and as a consequence the race usually attracts a very good field.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Frederik Van Lierde	BEL	00:35:21	04:48:13	01:12:47	06:41:02
2	Eneko Llanos	ESP	00:35:27	04:48:21	01:16:14	06:45:02
3	Tyler Butterfield	BMU	00:36:58	04:48:16	01:17:47	06:47:49

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Melissa Hauschildt	AUS	00:41:17	05:17:45	01:16:42	07:20:29
2	Caroline Steffen	SUI	00:38:20	05:19:07	01:21:00	07:23:53
3	Michelle Vesterby	DEN	00:38:19	05:21:06	01:22:27	07:27:52

Male Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	Eneko Llanos	ESP	08:21:43	00:47:42	04:36:52	02:52:01	1
2	Frederik Van Lierde	BEL	08:24:36	00:47:46	04:35:41	02:55:42	5
3	Tyler Butterfield	BMU	08:32:54	00:49:37	04:43:29	02:56:37	18
4	James Cunnama	ZAF	08:34:01	00:50:03	04:42:00	02:58:07	23
5	Bas Diederen	NED	08:37:49	00:47:55	04:47:59	02:55:31	35
6	Bert Jammaer	BEL	08:46:26	00:49:09	04:46:10	03:05:32	60
7	Per Bittner	GER	08:51:07	00:49:58	04:52:41	03:02:03	84
8	Bart Colpaert	BEL	08:51:28	00:46:55	04:46:42	03:05:39	(85)
9	Henrik Hyldelund	DEN	09:09:49	00:47:32	04:47:42	03:19:20	(165)
10	Edo Van der Meer	NED	09:18:39	00:47:33	04:48:48	03:36:21	(194)
11	Andi Fuchs	AUT	09:19:40	00:57:16	04:50:54	03:13:09	(196)
	Sylvain Sudrie	FRA	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	Caroline Steffen	SUI	09:12:28	00:51:46	04:59:39	03:14:44	2
2	Yvonne Van Vlerken	NED	09:14:27	00:57:43	05:01:34	03:08:46	4
3	Jodie Swallow	GBR	09:25:03	00:48:41	05:02:52	03:27:21	9
4	Michelle Vesterby	DEN	09:27:58	00:52:05	05:09:20	03:21:19	13
5	Svetlana Blazevic	SCG	10:14:15	00:52:20	05:31:28	03:43:04	105
6	Gurutze Frades Larralde	ESP	10:14:43	01:02:57	05:28:28	03:24:24	(109)
7	Maria Lemeseva	RUS	10:26:18	01:06:57	05:33:04	03:31:49	(128)
	Alena Stevens	SVK	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Melissa Hauschildt	AUS	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

01:12:47