This is my first post with predictions for a 70.3 race. Some data might still be a bit wonky, but I think it gives a good view of the field’s strengths and weaknesses and how close the race is probably going to be – or how far ahead of the field Daniela’s results have been.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2006	Craig Alexander (AUS)	03:45:37	Samantha McGlone (CAN)	04:12:58
2007	Andy Potts (USA)	03:42:33	Mirinda Carfrae (AUS)	04:07:25
2008	Terenzo Bozzone (NZL)	03:40:10	Joanna Zeiger (USA)	04:02:48
2009	Michael Raelert (GER)	03:34:04	Julie Dibens (GBR)	03:59:33
2010	Michael Raelert (GER)	03:41:19	Jodie Swallow (GBR)	04:06:28
2011	Craig Alexander (AUS)	03:54:48	Melissa Hauschildt (AUS)	04:20:55
2012	Sebastian Kienle (GER)	03:54:35	Leanda Cave (GBR)	04:28:05
2013	Sebastian Kienle (GER)	03:54:02	Melissa Hauschildt (AUS)	04:20:07
2014	Javier Gomez (ESP)	03:41:30	Daniela Ryf (SUI)	04:09:19
2015	Jan Frodeno (GER)	03:51:19	Daniela Ryf (SUI)	04:11:34

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Jan Frodeno	GER	00:22:14	02:09:04	01:16:32	03:51:19
2	Sebastian Kienle	GER	00:24:04	02:09:54	01:15:22	03:52:48
3	Javier Gomez	ESP	00:22:12	02:13:38	01:15:35	03:55:05

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Daniela Ryf	SUI	00:23:46	02:21:10	01:22:51	04:11:34
2	Heather Wurtele	CAN	00:26:33	02:27:39	01:24:56	04:23:07
3	Anja Beranek	GER	00:24:32	02:24:18	01:31:17	04:24:10

KPR points and Prize Money

70.3 World Championship is a P-3000 race. It has a total prize purse of 250.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	3	Lionel Sanders	CAN	03:51:49	03:53:16	00:26:10	02:05:57	01:14:42	1
2	2	Sebastian Kienle	GER	03:52:39	03:56:05	00:24:02	02:07:07	01:16:30	2
3	9	Tim Don	GBR	03:52:39	03:59:27	00:22:49	02:09:56	01:14:54	16
4	17	Joe Gambles	AUS	03:54:29	03:56:07	00:22:58	02:08:59	01:17:31	3
5	32	Tyler Butterfield	BMU	03:54:47	03:56:58	00:23:44	02:08:56	01:17:07	7
6	6	Tim Reed	AUS	03:54:48	03:56:39	00:22:56	02:09:38	01:17:13	5
7	8	Andreas Dreitz	GER	03:55:36	03:59:48	00:23:46	02:07:30	01:19:20	20
8	21	Terenzo Bozzone	NZL	03:55:48	03:58:24	00:22:40	02:09:12	01:18:55	11
9	15	Sam Appleton	AUS	03:55:58	03:59:39	00:22:42	02:09:12	01:19:03	18
10	20	Brent McMahon	CAN	03:56:50	03:59:47	00:22:18	02:10:09	01:19:22	19
11	11	Trevor Wurtele	CAN	03:57:18	04:00:19	00:24:26	02:09:52	01:18:00	25
12	10	Craig Alexander	AUS	03:57:40	03:58:35	00:23:01	02:11:39	01:18:00	13
13	4	Ruedi Wild	SUI	03:57:48	04:05:05	00:22:52	02:12:08	01:17:48	60
14	18	Josh Amberger	AUS	03:58:27	04:03:25	00:21:50	02:07:57	01:23:40	38
15	23	Jan Van Berkel	SUI	03:59:03	04:05:06	00:22:57	02:12:08	01:18:58	62
16	41	Mark Bowstead	NZL	04:00:08	04:03:33	00:23:26	02:10:54	01:20:49	44
17	16	Taylor Reid	CAN	04:00:23	04:04:31	00:24:17	02:11:15	01:19:51	56
18	24	Maurice Clavel	GER	04:01:36	04:03:51	00:22:53	02:14:22	01:19:21	47
19	36	Igor Amorelli	BRA	04:01:46	04:08:09	00:22:51	02:09:54	01:24:01	98
20	12	Jake Montgomery	AUS	04:01:49	04:03:29	00:22:31	02:11:32	01:22:46	41
21	42	Brad Kahlefeldt	AUS	04:02:08	04:03:22	00:22:40	02:15:40	01:18:48	37
22	27	Mike Phillips	NZL	04:02:52	04:04:18	00:23:06	02:12:10	01:22:36	54
23	38	Nick Kastelein	AUS	04:03:30	04:10:25	00:22:51	02:16:23	01:19:16	123
24	30	Braden Currie	NZL	04:04:06	04:06:52	00:23:09	02:15:41	01:20:16	85
25	43	Graham O’Grady	NZL	04:04:15	04:06:05	00:22:40	02:12:03	01:24:32	75
26	35	Luke McKenzie	AUS	04:04:27	04:07:54	00:23:53	02:11:24	01:24:10	96
27	29	Matthew Pellow	AUS	04:04:59	04:09:26	00:23:25	02:13:34	01:23:00	112
28	5	Antony Costes	FRA	04:05:01	04:09:01	00:22:52	02:13:07	01:24:02	110
29	46	Tim George	AUS	04:05:27	04:12:01	00:23:54	02:16:26	01:20:07	(144)
30	26	Mitchell Robins	AUS	04:06:43	04:11:23	00:23:53	02:15:51	01:21:58	136
31	50	Daniel Fontana	ITA	04:07:28	04:06:30	00:22:47	02:15:49	01:23:52	81
32	28	David Mainwaring	AUS	04:07:44	04:09:47	00:24:18	02:17:07	01:21:19	118
33	25	Casey Munro	AUS	04:08:29	04:10:29	00:22:42	02:15:38	01:25:08	124
34	45	Adam Gordon	AUS	04:09:07	04:14:19	00:26:27	02:14:44	01:22:55	171
35	40	Peter Kerr	AUS	04:09:26	04:14:28	00:22:21	02:21:16	01:20:49	174
36	39	David Breuer	GER	04:10:13	04:12:53	00:23:26	02:17:29	01:24:18	152
37	31	Paulo Roberto Maciel da Silva	BRA	04:10:19	04:12:15	00:22:58	02:18:49	01:23:32	147
38	37	Guy Crawford	NZL	04:10:55	04:13:43	00:23:45	02:16:01	01:26:10	162
39	22	Christian Hoerper	GER	04:11:26	04:15:27	00:25:05	02:20:58	01:20:23	185
40	53	Paul Schuster	GER	04:11:42	04:13:21	00:23:30	02:20:15	01:22:57	156
41	34	Milosz Sowinski	POL	04:12:04	04:16:08	00:24:32	02:18:03	01:24:29	195
42	49	Mitchell Kibby	AUS	04:13:28	04:15:00	00:23:51	02:19:47	01:24:51	179
43	55	Mauro Baertsch	SUI	04:13:31	04:18:37	00:25:06	02:20:12	01:23:12	230
44	44	Nick Baldwin	SEY	04:14:27	04:17:13	00:25:03	02:18:34	01:25:50	207
45	33	Rodrigo Acevedo	COL	04:15:06	04:20:20	00:26:12	02:18:05	01:25:49	256
46	52	Roberto Rivera	CHI	04:15:42	04:18:16	00:24:23	02:19:08	01:27:10	224
47	48	Brad Williams	USA	04:17:14	04:20:02	00:27:07	02:16:45	01:28:22	251
48	54	Matt Franklin	NZL	04:21:07	04:25:00	00:22:53	02:16:04	01:37:09	299
49	47	Michael Davidson	ZAF	04:22:48	04:28:53	00:26:31	02:27:44	01:23:34	331

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	101	Daniela Ryf	SUI	04:12:35	04:18:10	00:23:56	02:20:22	01:23:17	1
2	102	Heather Wurtele	CAN	04:17:33	04:18:50	00:26:10	02:22:15	01:24:08	2
3	110	Melissa Hauschildt	AUS	04:19:04	04:23:38	00:26:58	02:22:48	01:24:17	8
4	107	Holly Lawrence	GBR	04:19:13	04:22:24	00:24:10	02:21:50	01:28:13	4
5	105	Caroline Steffen	SUI	04:22:06	04:22:07	00:24:56	02:26:39	01:25:31	3
6	104	Magali Tisseyre	CAN	04:22:07	04:26:29	00:25:19	02:24:32	01:27:17	11
7	106	Annabel Luxford	AUS	04:22:54	04:27:15	00:24:25	02:25:32	01:27:57	14
8	115	Alicia Kaye	USA	04:24:33	04:29:56	00:24:18	02:24:37	01:30:38	22
9	124	Ellie Salthouse	AUS	04:24:55	04:26:44	00:24:44	02:27:09	01:28:02	12
10	112	Radka Vodickova	CZE	04:25:13	04:30:05	00:24:11	02:29:26	01:26:36	24
11	108	Lauren Barnett	USA	04:26:13	04:32:01	00:27:10	02:27:33	01:26:31	32
12	127	Laura Philipp	GER	04:29:14	04:31:51	00:27:22	02:29:30	01:27:21	30
13	111	Leanda Cave	GBR	04:29:53	04:32:10	00:24:42	02:30:26	01:29:45	35
14	119	Linsey Corbin	USA	04:30:30	04:35:17	00:27:10	02:29:09	01:29:11	48
15	120	Laura Siddall	GBR	04:32:04	04:38:41	00:28:15	02:30:01	01:28:48	63
16	118	Sarah Crowley	AUS	04:33:27	04:39:13	00:27:11	02:32:27	01:28:49	66
17	125	Lauren Brandon	USA	04:33:55	04:38:26	00:23:07	02:26:05	01:39:44	61
18	128	Kirsty Jahn	CAN	04:34:15	04:39:45	00:28:52	02:34:12	01:26:11	71
19	117	Ricarda Lisk	GER	04:34:28	04:44:07	00:25:22	02:35:50	01:28:16	111
20	114	Alexandra Tondeur	BEL	04:34:45	04:39:17	00:28:07	02:33:54	01:27:44	67
21	133	Kate Pedley	AUS	04:35:25	04:37:41	00:29:22	02:33:51	01:27:13	56
22	109	Natascha Schmitt	GER	04:35:43	04:40:29	00:26:28	02:34:26	01:29:49	74
23	123	Andrea Forrest	AUS	04:36:03	04:38:53	00:26:07	02:34:19	01:30:36	64
24	116	Heather Lendway	USA	04:36:19	04:40:53	00:23:58	02:30:06	01:37:15	79
25	130	Dimity-Lee Duke	AUS	04:37:08	04:38:16	00:28:33	02:31:02	01:32:33	60
26	129	Katey Gibb	AUS	04:37:24	04:40:46	00:26:21	02:34:09	01:31:53	77
27	121	Astrid Stienen	GER	04:38:22	04:39:18	00:28:53	02:34:43	01:29:45	68
28	126	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	04:41:06	04:42:24	00:26:40	02:35:33	01:33:53	98
29	134	Jessica Mitchell	AUS	04:42:16	04:44:32	00:29:41	02:33:04	01:34:31	114
30	122	Nikki Bartlett	GBR	04:43:16	04:45:52	00:29:13	02:36:04	01:32:59	127
31	132	Caroline Livesey	GBR	04:45:14	04:49:44	00:28:24	02:36:06	01:35:44	160
32	139	Kym Coogan	AUS	04:46:16	04:48:30	00:27:10	02:38:47	01:35:19	144
33	137	Renee Baker	AUS	04:50:03	04:52:03	00:27:16	02:35:59	01:41:48	179
34	138	Erika Simon	ARG	04:56:55	04:58:55	00:30:01	02:38:48	01:43:05	208

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Lionel Sanders: 33% (2-1)
• Sebastian Kienle: 13% (7-1)
• Joe Gambles: 13% (7-1)
• Josh Amberger: 9% (10-1)
• Tyler Butterfield: 7% (13-1)
• Tim Don: 6% (15-1)
• Sam Appleton: 5% (18-1)
• Tim Reed: 4% (23-1)
• Terenzo Bozzone: 3% (28-1)
• Andreas Dreitz: 3% (37-1)

Female Race Participants

• Daniela Ryf: 49% (1-1)
• Holly Lawrence: 24% (3-1)
• Heather Wurtele: 14% (6-1)
• Melissa Hauschildt: 6% (16-1)
• Caroline Steffen: 3% (37-1)
• Magali Tisseyre: 3% (38-1)

How the Race Might Unfold

Based on the previous results and “raw data” and putting aside race dynamics, here’s a look at how the races might unfold. The graphs below show at various points in the race who’s probably in the lead and how far back the other athletes are going to be. Of course this is just speculation and “the real race” still has to be run!

Male Race

As usual the men’s race is going to be very close and hard to predict. Nonetheless, here is my best “guess” at how the men’s race could develop:

The main points of the race:

• Josh Amberger is likely to lead after the swim, and he may well hold on that lead on the bike. However, the other athletes will try to close the gap as soon as possible on the bike, so he may get some company. For a Top 10 result Josh would need a much stronger run than he’s been able to show in the past, but if he’s injury free maybe he can show his potential.
• Sebastian Kienle is likely to loose around two minutes in the swim, and he will work hard to make up the difference on the bike. At minimum he should be near the front of the chase group (maybe teaming up with countryman and bike powerhouse Andy Dreitz?) and take the lead in the early part of the run. It’s going to be very interesting to see if an improved run allows him to hold on the leading position in the second half of the run.
• Lionel Sanders has been winning almost every 70.3 race this season. Even after losing more than four minutes in the swim, he should make up enough time on the bike for his fantastic run to win the race. In St. George he quickly closed the gap to Sebastian Kienle and they started the run together – Lionel put more than two minutes into Sebi to win there. Here even a gap of a minute or so to Sebi in T2 should still allow him to catch Sebi and win the race. 
• There will be a large group of podium contenders pretty close together in T2. Tim Don has proven to be the fastest runner of them in the last couple of years – based on the data he’ll be in a statistical dead heat with Sebastian Kienle.  But with a group of strong athletes such as Joe Gambles, Ty Butterfield, Tim Reed, Andy Dreitz, Terenzo Bozzone, Sam Appleton, Brent McMahon, Trevor Wurtele or Craig Alexander, there is going to be at least one athlete that will have a cracker day and is going to change things up. Interesting racing to look forward to for sure!

Female Race

Based on the data, the female race is probably going to be less exciting than the male race .. but a few athletes will not agree with this and will do their best to make Daniela work hard for the win!

Some key points:

• Lauren Brandon is likely to lead the race into T1, and she’ll stay close to the front up on the bike. She’ll be loosing more ground once the run starts.
• Daniela Ryf will be in a bigger group about one minute back in T1. She’s the best bike rider in the field and will start to build a solid lead into T2 (close to two minutes) that she should be able to extend on the run. With a “statistical gap” of almost five minutes to the next athlete something extraordinary would have to happen for her not to defend her title.
• For a long time Holly Lawrence should be the athlete closest to Daniela. She’ll likely swim a similar time and not loose to much time on the bike. For a podium finish she’ll need a strong run.
• Heather Wurtele and Mel Hauschildt will likely be further behind after the swim – three minutes to Lauren Brandon for  Heather and four minutes for Mel. They have similar strong bike and run capabilities and should finish on the podium, but they are not likely to make up time to Daniela.
• Behind the Top 4, there is a large group of athletes with very similar capabilities. On a good day, Caroline Steffen, Magali Tisseyre, Annabel Luxford, Alicia Kaye, Ellie Malthouse or Radka Vodickova are able to contend for a podium spot.

Update Sep 1st: I have removed a few athletes that are no longer on the latest startlist (Uli Bromme, Haley Chura, Amber Ferreira, Melanie McQuaid).

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Andriy Yastrebov (UKR)	09:01:34	Ute Mueckel (GER)	10:11:22
2006	Markus Forster (GER)	09:07:24	Katja Schumacher (GER)	10:01:22
2007	Maik Twelsiek (GER)	08:52:49	Gina Crawford (NZL)	09:37:03
2008	Chris McDonald (AUS)	08:43:29	Hillary Biscay (USA)	09:47:25
2009	Raynard Tissink (ZAF)	08:45:19	Amy Marsh (USA)	09:43:59
2010	Joe Gambles (AUS)	08:38:32	Gina Crawford (NZL)	09:27:26
2011	Ezequiel Morales (ARG)	08:45:18	Jessica Jacobs (USA)	09:41:03
2012	Ben Hoffman (USA)	08:32:51	Elizabeth Lyles (USA)	09:34:35
2013	Maik Twelsiek (GER)	08:40:15	Jackie Hering (USA)	09:47:07
2014	Daniel Bretscher (USA)	08:31:20	Britta Martin (NZL)	09:30:08

2014 TOP 3

In 2015 IM Wisconsin was an age-group only race, therefore I’m showing the 2014 results.

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Daniel Bretscher	USA	00:52:16	04:42:57	02:50:14	08:31:20
2	Brandon Marsh	USA	00:47:52	04:46:54	02:51:06	08:32:23
3	Pedro Gomes	POR	00:52:17	04:42:51	02:55:41	08:36:56

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Britta Martin	NZL	00:59:13	05:15:26	03:08:40	09:30:08
2	Tamara Kozulina	UKR	01:04:13	05:15:52	03:14:15	09:41:16
3	Ashley Clifford	USA	00:56:29	05:32:10	03:09:36	09:45:10

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:31:20	Daniel Bretscher	2014-09-07
Swim	overall	00:44:56	John Flanagan	2010-09-12
Bike	overall	04:31:14	Konstantin Bachor	2014-09-07
Run	overall	02:50:14	Daniel Bretscher	2014-09-07
Total	female	09:27:26	Gina Crawford	2010-09-12
Swim	female	00:48:41	Linda Gallo	2005-09-11
Bike	female	05:12:50	Gina Crawford	2010-09-12
Run	female	02:59:33	Elizabeth Lyles	2012-09-09

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Wisconsin is – 05:46.

Race Adjustments for IM Wisconsin

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2005	-16:49	00:22	-08:17	-10:21	37	-16:49	00:22	-08:17	-10:21
2006	-19:18	-03:29	-17:26	-03:19	29	-18:03	-01:33	-12:52	-06:50
2007	-01:45	-03:49	-04:05	03:36	35	-12:37	-02:18	-09:56	-03:22
2008	01:55	-00:36	-01:50	02:33	29	-08:59	-01:53	-07:55	-01:53
2009	-04:22	-01:31	-00:43	-02:35	31 of 32	-08:04	-01:49	-06:28	-02:02
2010	00:36	-01:18	-00:25	01:27	29 of 30	-06:37	-01:43	-05:28	-01:27
2011	-08:32	-01:40	-01:20	-04:15	24	-06:54	-01:43	-04:52	-01:51
2012	-08:13	-01:35	00:15	-00:10	24	-07:03	-01:42	-04:14	-01:38
2013	-01:25	-03:15	-00:30	02:33	27 of 34	-06:26	-01:52	-03:49	-01:10
2014	00:13	-00:55	00:14	00:39	26 of 27	-05:46	-01:47	-03:25	-00:59

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Wisconsin is a P-2000 race. It is a WPRO-only race and has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	1	Elizabeth Lyles	USA	09:29:20	09:25:46	00:58:15	05:17:12	03:08:54	63% +6% -31% (14)	22
2	2	Amanda Stevens	USA	09:37:44	09:35:57	00:53:10	05:19:25	03:20:10	51% +17% -32% (18)	38
3	4	Haley Chura	USA	09:39:42	09:43:32	00:50:39	05:22:22	03:21:41	64% +14% -22% (9)	(53)
4	13	Melanie McQuaid	CAN	09:46:37	09:46:22	00:59:27	05:15:50	03:26:19	100% +0% -0% (2)	(59)
5	16	Darbi Roberts	USA	09:50:51	09:58:31	00:54:30	05:25:07	03:26:14	37% +0% -63% (5)	85
6	3	Uli Bromme	USA	09:53:44	09:51:41	01:05:08	05:19:49	03:23:47	35% +38% -27% (14)	(69)
7	5	Amber Ferreira	USA	09:58:05	09:50:23	00:58:42	05:23:57	03:30:26	51% +18% -31% (16)	65
8	14	Leslie DiMichele Miller	USA	10:04:52	10:00:27	01:01:07	05:36:00	03:22:45	100% +0% -0% (3)	88
9	8	Christine Hammond	USA	10:08:56	10:04:08	00:56:38	05:31:47	03:35:30	100% +0% -0% (7)	(95)
10	10	Heather Leiggi	USA	10:13:55	10:20:07	01:02:48	05:31:30	03:34:37	46% +13% -41% (6)	(126)
11	7	Alyssa Godesky	USA	10:17:30	10:17:42	01:02:56	05:38:56	03:30:39	58% +27% -14% (13)	117
12	17	Molly Roohi	USA	10:22:14	10:17:30	01:06:55	05:36:59	03:33:20	100% +0% -0% (4)	(116)
13	18	Katie Thomas	USA	10:24:53	10:20:03	00:55:28	05:37:44	03:46:41	100% +0% -0% (3)	(126)
14	15	Ashley Paulson	USA	10:25:27	10:31:17	01:14:42	05:42:14	03:23:31	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(149)
15	9	Cathleen Knutson	USA	10:55:33	10:56:26	01:09:14	05:52:02	03:49:16	55% +0% -45% (3)	(159)
	6	Danielle Fischer	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	11	Nicole Luse	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	12	Carrie Mccoy	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Winning Odds

• Elizabeth Lyles: 52% (1-1)
• Amanda Stevens: 21% (4-1)
• Haley Chura: 14% (6-1)
• Uli Bromme: 4% (22-1)
• Darbi Roberts: 3% (29-1)
• Melanie McQuaid: 3% (32-1)
• Amber Ferreira: 2% (65-1)

Race Conditions

Similar to last year, IM Vichy was a quick race, especially on the bike. A slow, non-wetsuit swim (more on that in the women’s results) was followed by a very fast bike and a quick run, leading to an overall adjustment of 14:48 and a new course rating of 15:41.

All course records were broken this year: Winners Harry Wiltshire and Catherine Faux posted new overall course records. Ivan Risti and Celine Schärer set new swim course records, Andreas Niedrig and Catherine Faux set new bike course records, and Chris Brader and Lauren Capone set new run course records.

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	00:50:24	04:31:33	02:51:04	08:17:14	-21:53	US$ 5000
2	Tim Brydenbach	BEL	00:50:25	04:31:22	02:51:41	08:18:34	-06:43	US$ 2750
3	Ivan Risti	ITA	00:50:18	04:31:20	02:53:46	08:19:58	-27:38	US$ 1750
4	Trevor Delsaut	FRA	00:57:15	04:30:31	02:48:49	08:21:51	-13:12	US$ 1250
5	Christian Brader	GER	00:58:22	04:33:20	02:45:37	08:22:43	-17:25	US$ 1000
6	Marc Duelsen	GER	00:57:36	04:27:11	02:55:44	08:25:20	02:32	US$ 750
7	Hannes Cool	BEL	00:57:44	04:33:05	02:50:55	08:27:54	-28:44
8	Samuel Huerzeler	SUI	00:56:11	04:34:28	02:54:51	08:32:09	-22:54
9	Tohara Kaito	JPN	00:57:44	04:34:26	02:53:59	08:33:17	-18:00
10	John Manuel Galindo Rooney	ESP	00:54:31	04:45:53	03:06:15	08:53:31	-42:11
11	Mike Schifferle	SUI	01:02:37	04:30:33	03:14:46	08:56:27	08:21
12	Christophe Bastie	FRA	00:58:27	04:35:29	03:20:53	09:01:07	18:35
13	Lucky Berlage	BEL	01:05:29	04:36:23	03:10:14	09:01:30	06:38
14	Andreas Niedrig	GER	00:50:32	04:22:29	03:42:49	09:02:37	13:02
15	Olivier Esser	BEL	00:58:32	04:44:20	03:14:21	09:03:47	n/a
16	Enric Gussinyer	ESP	00:54:30	04:41:39	03:27:06	09:11:03	-06:26
17	Eneko Elosegui	ESP	01:03:09	04:41:35	03:22:33	09:13:50	-08:32
18	Rafael Espinar Puig	ESP	01:17:04	05:14:55	03:05:42	09:45:56	25:06
19	Jens Frommhold	GER	01:03:37	04:35:42	04:32:55	10:18:12	1:38:42
	Kevin Rundstadler	FRA	00:52:09	04:36:29		DNF
	Nicolas Hemet	FRA	00:58:21	04:33:21		DNF
	Rod De Kanel	FRA	00:54:27	04:48:13		DNF
	Frederic Garcia	FRA	00:58:29	04:44:18		DNF
	Lluis Vila aguilar	ESP	00:59:55	04:49:08		DNF

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Catherine Faux	GBR	01:00:23	04:54:23	03:13:01	09:13:40	n/a	US$ 5000
2	Celine Schaerer	SUI	00:55:12	04:59:51	03:16:52	09:17:21	-01:03	US$ 2750
3	Kelly Fillnow	USA	01:09:12	05:02:54	03:09:45	09:27:56	-19:07	US$ 1750
4	Lauren Capone	USA	01:00:28	05:24:07	03:01:19	09:34:06	n/a	US$ 1250
5	Keiko Tanaka	JPN	00:55:56	05:11:09	03:22:48	09:35:46	-08:33	US$ 1000
6	Brooke Brown	CAN	01:06:02	05:05:14	03:20:14	09:38:34	02:33	US$ 750
7	Nicole Woysch	GER	01:09:16	05:02:21	03:27:48	09:46:50	-15:46
8	Sabrina Monmarteau	FRA	01:00:32	05:22:03	03:22:20	09:53:16	n/a
9	Lina-Kristin Schink	GER	01:20:26	04:55:44	03:32:10	09:54:13	03:22
	Angela Kuehnlein	GER	01:09:09	05:20:19		DNF

Not shown in the results is Diana Riesler who was DQ’d after the swim in very dubious circumstances. In line with the Ironman rules (that were re-affirmed in an email before the race) she wore a swim skin over her race suit, that was deemed reason for disqualification by the French officials who were using the French rules for non-wetsuit swim (only one layer of clothes). 

Update on DQ’s During the Swim

In addition to Diana, there were at least four more other Pros who were disqualified (Xavier Torrades, Ludovic Le Guellec, Pierre-Yves Facomprez, and Urs Mueller), though the results don’t show at what point they were qualified and for what infraction. There were also reports of a number of age group athletes who were disqualified for “illegal equipment” during the swim. Here is my best understanding of what happened. (Please note that I have not been on-site, the following is based on a number of Tweets, Emails and posts about the race.)

At the Pro meeting it was announced that the swim would be non-wetsuit because of the water temperature. There was a discussion about what was allowed to be worn in addition to a swimskin. Ironman rules state that a race kit can be worn underneath as long as the race kit (and swimskin) do not extend beyond the elbow or the knee. Contrary to that French rules (that take precedence as Vichy is a French race) require a “one layer only” rule. I haven’t seen the exact wording of the rule but it means that no speed suit would be allowed to be worn over a race kit. In the discussion during the race meeting that was softened/clarified so that underwear would be allowed to be worn under the swimskin. (Apparently that means shorts and also a sports bra for women.) Diana has written that based on this information she would not have worn a speed suit but would have just competed in her race suit.

After the Pro meeting an email was sent out to the Pros. This email included the following “Ruling Update”:

… A textile race kit may be worn underneath swimwear, provided, however, that the textile race kit must not extend past the shoulder and must not extend past the knees.

Based on this email, Diana decided to use the swimskin after all, see her outfit on the right. 

While this would be perfectly legal in most Ironman races, she was disqualified immediately after the swim. She was completely frustrated as she tried to follow the rules as best as she could with the information provided – as did a number of other athletes. She reports that a number of other athletes that also wore their race suit under the swimskin were not disqualified.

I think that Diana was under the impression that the “one layer rule” had been lifted, but another sentence in the email sent to the Pros could be interpreted that it was still in place:

.. You are permitted to wear your race uniform under your swimskin during the swim portion, provided it is rolled down and is not covering your shoulders and upper arms and nothing is covering your legs below the knee.

This sentence isn’t completely clear – if it is rolled down how can it over the shoulders? Others I have shown this sentence interpreted it in a similar way to the old IM rule: If you have a race kit that covers your upper arms, then it needs to be rolled down for the swim. But based on what happened in the race, I think that this sentence was to highlight that you couldn’t fully “wear” your race kit under the swimskin.

To me, this whole episode highlights the following key points:

1. While Ironman has made a lot of progress in “unifying” rules for their races, there are still some areas where more work is needed.
2. While it is always the athlete’s responsibility to know the rules and come to the race with the appropriate clothing, the local rule differences need to be clearly explained in the Pro meeting. Anything unclear should be resolved by the end of the Pro meeting. (Race morning is the worst time to clear these up.)
3. The application of the rules needs to be uniform, especially in areas where local rules are different.

Any lack of clarity in rules or communication usually has to be shouldered by the athletes – as shown in Vichy where a number of athletes received a DQ without really knowing why. 

Update Aug 4th: I’ve updated the participants and odds based on the current startlist.

Previous Winners

Almere is one of the oldest triathlons in Europe, their first long distance race was in 1983. My data goes back to 2013 when the race joined the Challenge family.

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2013	Bart Colpaert (BEL)	08:34:50	Susan Blatt (GER)	09:24:40
2014	Markus Fachbach (GER)	08:28:25	Heleen Bij De Vaate (NED)	09:16:26
2015	Markus Fachbach (GER)	08:12:24	Kathrin Walther (GER)	09:26:11

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Markus Fachbach	GER	00:48:56	04:25:18	02:54:01	08:12:24
2	Mark Oude Bennink	NED	00:48:47	04:25:32	02:59:29	08:18:14
3	Erik-Simon Strijk	NED	00:51:37	04:26:45	02:59:14	08:22:29

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Kathrin Walther	GER	00:59:12	04:56:48	03:23:23	09:26:11
2	Irene Kinnegim	NED	01:04:48	05:04:35	03:11:02	09:27:27
3	Camille Deligny	FRA	01:01:54	04:55:03	03:27:31	09:29:52

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:12:24	Markus Fachbach	2015-09-12
Swim	overall	00:44:25	Bart Colpaert	2014-09-13
Bike	overall	04:25:18	Markus Fachbach	2015-09-12
Run	overall	02:47:54	Dirk Wijnalda	2014-09-13
Total	female	09:16:26	Heleen Bij De Vaate	2014-09-13
Swim	female	00:51:37	Hillary Biscay	2013-09-14
Bike	female	04:55:03	Camille Deligny	2015-09-12
Run	female	03:10:59	Heleen Bij De Vaate	2014-09-13

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Almere is 10:01.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Almere

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2013	05:32	00:21	02:01	03:40	30	05:32	00:21	02:01	03:40
2014	07:02	02:46	04:35	01:29	30 of 38	06:17	01:34	03:18	02:35
2015	17:27	00:31	16:05	04:15	36 of 43	10:01	01:13	07:34	03:08

Prize Money

Challenge Almere has a total prize purse of 38.000 EUR.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	3	Jan Raphael	GER	08:31:57	08:38:06	00:48:26	04:37:38	03:00:53	94% +0% -6% (24)	52
2	6	Erik-Simon Strijk	NED	08:34:37	08:53:46	00:51:21	04:37:38	03:00:38	96% +4% -0% (7)	101
3	1	Dirk Wijnalda	NED	08:34:49	08:59:46	00:55:10	04:41:15	02:53:23	43% +56% -1% (19)	128
4	8	Marek Jaskolka	POL	08:40:25	08:45:28	00:47:58	04:49:28	02:57:59	100% +0% -0% (7)	78
5	7	Matthias Knossalla	GER	08:40:56	09:03:09	01:02:56	04:32:37	03:00:22	29% +71% -0% (2)	(138)
6	2	Sergio Marques	POR	08:41:12	08:54:28	00:53:27	04:47:45	02:55:00	77% +5% -18% (36)	102
7	16	Diederik Scheltinga	NED	08:42:55	09:18:04	00:50:54	04:42:18	03:04:43	10% +28% -62% (4)	(189)
8	4	David Naesvik	SWE	08:46:30	09:01:40	00:53:43	04:38:41	03:09:05	70% +0% -30% (15)	132
9	24	Malte Bruns	GER	08:50:14	09:07:26	00:52:28	04:49:09	03:03:37	100% +0% -0% (2)	(157)
10	25	Pascal Ramali	GER	08:51:30	09:13:59	00:57:57	04:38:17	03:10:16	27% +0% -73% (3)	(180)
11	11	Youri Severin	NED	08:53:24	09:14:24	00:45:59	04:46:40	03:15:46	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(181)
12	5	Bryan Rhodes	NZL	08:57:49	09:17:39	00:47:09	04:44:08	03:21:32	22% +0% -78% (27)	(186)
13	10	Graeme Stewart	GBR	08:59:55	09:17:51	00:53:17	04:52:14	03:09:24	41% +7% -52% (13)	188
14	19	Peter Seidel	GER	09:04:09	09:32:46	00:52:20	04:36:40	03:30:10	30% +0% -70% (3)	228
15	20	Marcus Hultgren	SWE	09:08:37	09:27:23	00:57:23	04:54:17	03:11:58	39% +61% -0% (4)	215
16	9	Allan Hovda	NOR	09:09:31	09:27:43	01:03:42	04:55:09	03:05:39	100% +0% -0% (2)	(216)
17	14	Daniel Mugica Corrales	ESP	09:19:22	09:41:23	00:51:02	05:08:05	03:15:15	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(248)
18	18	Josef Krivanek	CZE	09:23:04	09:49:33	00:56:29	04:59:37	03:21:58	63% +37% -0% (6)	(262)
19	21	Tjerk Tjallema	NED	09:44:15	10:10:16	00:51:00	05:25:04	03:23:11	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(280)
	15	Christian Otto	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	17	Jarmo Rissanen	FIN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	22	Stefan Overmars	NED	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	26	Patrick Hansen	DEN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	52	Mirjam Weerd	NED	09:29:48	09:39:58	00:52:41	05:07:59	03:24:09	85% +5% -10% (12)	50
2	54	Erika Csomor	HUN	09:31:34	09:36:12	00:58:44	05:10:29	03:17:21	85% +0% -14% (35)	39
3	56	Camille Deligny	FRA	09:40:16	10:06:07	01:01:20	05:04:25	03:29:31	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(98)
4	51	Kathrin Walther	GER	09:42:40	10:20:35	00:58:22	05:08:22	03:30:56	29% +26% -45% (9)	127
5	60	Carla Van Rooijen	NED	09:58:04	10:17:53	01:12:17	05:17:32	03:23:16	84% +16% -0% (7)	120
6	57	Simona Krivankova	CZE	10:11:05	10:35:09	01:09:05	05:32:26	03:24:34	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(151)
	59	Vanessa Pereira	POR	10:17:18	unrated	01:01:49	05:33:12	03:37:18	59% +0% -41% (10)	n/a
	53	Ewa Bugdol	POL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	62	Julia Mai	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	63	Ilona Eversdijk	NED	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	64	Lucie Van Genugten	NED	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Jan Raphael: 31% (2-1)
• Dirk Wijnalda: 30% (2-1)
• Erik-Simon Strijk: 13% (6-1)
• Sergio Marques: 10% (9-1)
• Marek Jaskolka: 7% (13-1)
• Matthias Knossalla: 7% (14-1)

Female Race Participants

• Mirjam Weerd: 60% (1-1)
• Erika Csomor: 25% (3-1)
• Kathrin Walther: 8% (12-1)
• Camille Deligny: 3% (31-1)
• Carla Van Rooijen: 3% (31-1)

Race Conditions

This year’s IM Mont Tremblant was surprisingly slow – an adjustment of -8:27 was markedly slower than the new course rating of 4:02. This seems to be caused by a very slow swim – the fastest male Pros were over 55 minutes and only Amanda Stevens broke one hour on the female side. There were also a couple of athletes racing tired and a bit slower than what they are normally able to race. 

The surprise of the day was Iron-rookie Chris Leiferman winning the race, he also posted a new run course record.

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Chris Leiferman	USA	00:58:56	04:36:09	02:45:09	08:24:59	n/a	US$ 20000
2	Jordan Rapp	USA	00:58:59	04:30:35	02:54:53	08:29:57	-07:39	US$ 10000
3	Stephen Kilshaw	CAN	00:58:47	04:35:00	02:54:04	08:34:16	-39:56	US$ 6500
4	Paul Matthews	AUS	00:55:22	04:37:55	03:01:26	08:39:51	00:34	US$ 4000
5	Paul Ambrose	AUS	00:58:48	04:37:58	03:07:56	08:50:17	-02:24	US$ 3000
6	Eric Limkemann	USA	00:55:27	04:41:07	03:10:38	08:52:38	05:47	US$ 2000
7	Chris McDonald	AUS	01:02:42	04:43:09	03:11:20	09:02:13	07:39	US$ 1500
8	Victor Del Corral	ESP	01:04:58	04:50:44	03:06:44	09:09:06	25:48	US$ 1250
9	Chad Holderbaum	USA	01:02:29	04:51:42	03:12:12	09:11:58	-05:06	US$ 1000
10	Timothy Clarke	USA	01:05:26	05:03:22	03:08:08	09:23:11	-34:44	US$ 750
11	Travis Hawkins	USA	01:11:41	04:56:56	03:30:41	09:45:27	-02:10
12	Peter Kotland	CZE	01:06:09	05:02:16	03:40:24	09:55:05	-04:15
13	Jerome McEniry	CAN	01:08:50	05:28:27	03:19:07	10:06:16	n/a
14	Brendan Naef	CAN	01:04:54	04:48:40	05:59:12	12:00:22	1:20:15
	Romain Guillaume	FRA	00:55:28	04:30:33		DNF
	Christopher Bagg	USA	00:58:54	04:36:56		DNF
	Kyle Pawlaczyk	USA	01:06:02	04:40:52		DNF
	Nick Glavac	USA	01:14:05	05:06:09		DNF
	Matthew Russell	USA	01:02:40			DNF
	David Lacombe	CAN	01:08:50			DNF

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	01:00:59	04:59:24	03:18:48	09:26:37	-00:25	US$ 20000
2	Laurel Wassner	USA	01:03:44	05:09:14	03:11:51	09:32:45	-28:54	US$ 10000
3	Jessica Jones	USA	01:05:49	05:28:14	03:20:25	10:00:43	n/a	US$ 6500
4	Amber Ferreira	USA	01:05:48	05:14:37	03:38:04	10:05:15	06:14	US$ 4000
5	Amanda Wendorff	USA	01:05:51	05:13:21	03:41:39	10:06:50	n/a	US$ 3000
6	Caroline St-Pierre	CAN	01:05:52	05:37:11	03:19:05	10:07:47	-04:19	US$ 2000
7	Amanda Stevens	USA	00:58:38	05:21:21	04:31:51	10:58:14	1:17:51	US$ 1500
8	Amy Vantassel	USA	01:20:57	05:51:33	03:40:29	11:00:58	n/a	US$ 1250
9	Katy Cargiulo	USA	01:20:10	05:52:19	03:49:32	11:12:03	09:49	US$ 1000
10	Caroline Martineau	CAN	01:14:01	05:42:57	04:26:09	11:30:17	50:40	US$ 750