Ironman Vineman 2016 (July 31st) – Predictions

This is the first time this race is organized by the Ironman brand. There was a Pro category in prior years, but results are hard to find and I haven’t included them in my analysis. All time predictions are based on a “neutral” course.
KPR points and Prize Money
IM Vineman is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.
Male Race Participants
| Rank | Bib | Name | Nation | Expected Time | Rating | Exp. Swim | Exp. Bike | Exp. Run | Consistency | Overall |
| 1 | 3 | Richie Cunningham | AUS | 08:35:04 | 08:47:12 | 00:49:19 | 04:38:40 | 03:02:05 | 50% +0% -50% (3) | (78) |
| 2 | 4 | Kyle Buckingham | ZAF | 08:40:53 | 08:39:09 | 00:49:13 | 04:41:38 | 03:05:01 | 68% +0% -32% (9) | 53 |
| 3 | 7 | Pedro Gomes | POR | 08:42:27 | 08:40:43 | 00:52:07 | 04:47:56 | 02:57:24 | 65% +5% -30% (22) | 57 |
| 4 | 5 | Barrett Brandon | USA | 08:45:00 | 08:45:09 | 00:47:50 | 04:50:57 | 03:01:13 | 60% +0% -40% (5) | 69 |
| 5 | 2 | Chris McDonald | AUS | 08:49:54 | 08:46:30 | 00:53:33 | 04:46:41 | 03:04:40 | 62% +8% -30% (41) | 76 |
| 6 | 17 | Jonathan Shearon | USA | 08:50:54 | 08:55:08 | 00:53:37 | 04:44:15 | 03:08:02 | 57% +12% -31% (13) | 102 |
| 7 | 6 | Thomas Gerlach | USA | 08:53:14 | 09:01:16 | 00:54:07 | 04:44:00 | 03:10:06 | 39% +11% -51% (21) | 131 |
| 8 | 8 | Guy Crawford | NZL | 09:06:36 | 09:14:38 | 00:49:02 | 04:44:46 | 03:27:48 | 27% +37% -36% (12) | 183 |
| 9 | 19 | Jesse Vondracek | USA | 09:16:48 | 09:27:55 | 00:55:22 | 05:02:51 | 03:13:35 | 66% +24% -11% (16) | 219 |
| 10 | 13 | Colin Laughery | USA | 09:19:07 | 09:24:45 | 01:00:01 | 05:00:51 | 03:13:15 | 100% +0% -0% (2) | (209) |
| 11 | 14 | James Lubinski | USA | 09:23:03 | 09:31:31 | 01:02:16 | 05:03:31 | 03:12:16 | 44% +25% -31% (16) | 231 |
| 12 | 15 | Douglas MacLean | USA | 09:23:20 | 09:25:51 | 00:58:04 | 05:08:26 | 03:11:50 | 83% +5% -12% (13) | 210 |
| 13 | 12 | Andrew Langfield | USA | 09:44:27 | 09:56:12 | 00:57:41 | 05:21:00 | 03:20:46 | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (269) |
| 14 | 18 | Jorge Vazquez | MEX | 10:05:15 | 10:17:24 | 00:53:52 | 05:14:51 | 03:51:32 | 42% +0% -58% (3) | (287) |
| 15 | 16 | Sergio Quezada | MEX | 10:07:42 | 10:11:28 | 00:52:36 | 05:16:40 | 03:53:26 | 69% +10% -22% (12) | 283 |
| 1 | Max Biessmann | USA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 9 | Ivan Dominguez | USA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 10 | Rafael Goncalves | BRA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 11 | Nicholas Granet | FRA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) |
Female Race Participants
| Rank | Bib | Name | Nation | Expected Time | Rating | Exp. Swim | Exp. Bike | Exp. Run | Consistency | Overall |
| 1 | 27 | Heather Jackson | USA | 09:22:49 | 09:24:12 | 00:58:52 | 05:08:02 | 03:10:56 | 19% +56% -25% (4) | 20 |
| 3 | 25 | Sarah Piampiano | USA | 09:28:31 | 09:32:17 | 01:02:46 | 05:10:08 | 03:10:37 | 41% +47% -12% (14) | 36 |
| 4 | 29 | Amanda Stevens | USA | 09:30:01 | 09:30:05 | 00:51:32 | 05:15:40 | 03:17:50 | 60% +21% -19% (17) | 28 |
| 5 | 30 | Ariane Monticeli | BRA | 09:41:54 | 09:44:05 | 01:01:58 | 05:25:27 | 03:09:30 | 55% +27% -18% (14) | 59 |
| 6 | 41 | Darbi Roberts | USA | 09:44:37 | 09:58:31 | 00:52:49 | 05:21:32 | 03:25:15 | 37% +0% -63% (5) | 89 |
| 8 | 28 | Kate Bevilaqua | AUS | 09:57:22 | 10:05:04 | 00:55:58 | 05:24:55 | 03:31:30 | 26% +7% -67% (26) | 99 |
| 10 | 38 | Jocelyn McCauley | USA | 10:04:46 | 10:23:05 | 00:59:27 | 05:30:31 | 03:29:49 | 41% +0% -59% (4) | (137) |
| 12 | 42 | Jessica Smith | USA | 10:16:09 | 10:25:18 | 00:55:38 | 05:31:06 | 03:44:25 | 38% +0% -62% (6) | (149) |
| 14 | 32 | Terry Casey | USA | 10:59:05 | 11:12:19 | 00:58:47 | 05:36:07 | 04:19:11 | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (170) |
| 15 | 31 | Katy Cargiulo | USA | 11:01:40 | 11:08:17 | 01:01:34 | 06:10:47 | 03:44:19 | 100% +0% -0% (2) | (170) |
| 33 | Kendra Goffredo | USA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 35 | Monica Juhart | AUS | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 40 | Ashley Paulson | USA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 43 | Kyra Wiens | USA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) |
Winning Odds
Male Race Participants
- Richie Cunningham: 49% (1-1)
- Kyle Buckingham: 17% (5-1)
- Pedro Gomes: 16% (5-1)
- Chris McDonald: 7% (14-1)
- Thomas Gerlach: 5% (21-1)
- Jonathan Shearon: 4% (27-1)
- Barrett Brandon: 3% (31-1)
Female Race Participants
There are a number of women on the start list that are unlikely to race. Heather Jackson is probably on the Vineman list as a back up in case her validation race in Lake Placid the week before had runs into problem (she won and has a July slot). In a similar vein Ariane Monticelli managed to get a slot at IM Zürich and I can’t see a compelling reason for her to race Vineman. Mary Beth Ellis is also registered for IM Maastricht on the same weekend and has indicated that she’ll race there. (Update: MBE is no longer on the start list.) Amanda Stevens has been injured and is unlikely to race. This would leave Sarah Piampiano as the clear favorite to win the race:
- Mary Beth Ellis: 34% (2-1)
- Heather Jackson: 31% (2-1)
- Sarah Piampiano: 19% (4-1)
- Amanda Stevens: 12% (7-1)
- Ariane Monticeli: 3% (30-1)



Second place went to Joe Skipper who finally managed to put together a good bike ride and a great run. He was riding in the third bike group with Cyril Viennot and some others, and while a 4:21 is not slow he still lost some time to the second group with Nils Frommhold, Tyler Butterfield and Nick Kastelein. On the run Joe was reeling in one athlete after another and even managed to overtake Nils in the last few kilometers to claim second place in a well executed race.
Third place went to defending Champion Nils Frommhold. A sub-8 is nothing to be ashamed of, but Nils seemed disappointed that Jan proved he is a step or two above everyone else. Compared to the great races that Frodo and Joe had, Nils’s day pales a little bit. He quickly lost contact to Jan on the swim, then rode with Tyler and Nick but the gap to Jan increased with every split. Nils then had a good 2:48 run but couldn’t make any inroads into Frodo’s lead. Then Joe Skipper took second place from him just a few k’s from the finish. I still think that Nils should be proud of his race, especially after his 29th place in Kona and his DNF in Texas he had a solid race even when things didn’t go quite the way he was hoping for. It’s now time for him to plan his second half of the 2016 season – and he is looking forward to hist first child in November. With extra “daddy power” you can expect him to be back in Kona 2017!
Daniela was as dominating in the women’s race as Jan was in the men’s race – both won by more than 20 minutes ahead of second place. After the frustrating DNF in Frankfurt only two weeks prior to Roth, Dani had a race and result she could enjoy immensely. The fastest time in all three legs and her first marathon under 3 hours lead to a fantastic 8:22, missing Chrissie’s record by only 4 minutes. After the bike she was even under world record pace, something probably no one expected before the race. Dani can be more optimistic about the rest of the season – any doubts after Frankfurt have been blown away with this result. She still has to validate her Kona slot (likely in Zürich next weekend), but after that she’ll focus on defending her 70.3 and Ironman World Champion titles.