If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.
Previous Results
Brazil is one of the quicker courses on the IM calendar. With a course rating of 12:59 it is similar to IM Germany or IM Switzerland, but still a bit slower than the really fast courses such as Austria or Roth. Last year’s race was won by Eduardo Sturla (8:13:12 – a bit short of Luke McKenzie’s course record of 8:07:38 from 2010) and Amy Marsh (9:07:49 – course record). Don’t expect any sub-8 or sub-9 finishing times!
Male Participants
The top four finishers from last year are back on the start list for 2012:
Rank |
Name |
Nation |
Expected Time |
Rating |
Rank |
1 |
Santiago Ascenco |
BRA |
08:28:06 |
08:40:37 |
35 |
2 |
Eduardo Sturla |
ARG |
08:29:30 |
08:42:03 |
41 |
3 |
Guilherme Manocchio |
BRA |
08:44:04 |
08:56:58 |
116 |
4 |
Ezequiel Morales |
ARG |
08:46:56 |
08:59:55 |
132 |
5 |
Oscar Galindez |
ARG |
08:51:18 |
09:04:23 |
160 |
6 |
Andrey Lyatskiy |
RUS |
08:58:16 |
09:11:31 |
207 |
7 |
Raul Furtado |
BRA |
09:01:01 |
09:14:20 |
229 |
8 |
Lucas da silveira Pretto |
|
09:02:32 |
09:15:54 |
236 |
9 |
Rafael Wyss |
SWI |
09:03:07 |
09:16:29 |
242 |
10 |
Antonio Filho |
BRA |
09:04:57 |
09:18:22 |
265 |
11 |
Mario De Elias |
ARG |
09:05:12 |
09:18:37 |
269 |
12 |
Ivan Albano |
BRA |
09:08:43 |
09:22:14 |
299 |
13 |
Luiz Francisco Ferreira |
BRA |
09:10:04 |
09:23:37 |
305 |
14 |
Frederico Monteiro |
|
09:13:05 |
09:26:42 |
329 |
15 |
Hiroyuki Nishiuchi |
JPN |
09:13:16 |
09:26:53 |
332 |
16 |
Eneko Elosegui |
ESP |
09:30:04 |
09:44:06 |
450 |
17 |
Lucas Cocha |
ARG |
09:30:29 |
09:44:32 |
454 |
18 |
Sandi Ivancic |
SLO |
09:34:14 |
09:48:22 |
478 |
19 |
Matjaz Kovac |
SVN |
09:36:10 |
09:50:21 |
498 |
20 |
Christian emiliano Carletto |
|
09:37:47 |
09:52:01 |
511 |
21 |
Santiago Amigo |
ARG |
09:48:12 |
10:02:41 |
573 |
22 |
Ciro Violin |
|
n/a |
unrated |
n/a |
23 |
Geovani Muchinski |
|
n/a |
unrated |
n/a |
24 |
Thiago Vinhal |
|
n/a |
unrated |
n/a |
25 |
Frank Silvestrin |
|
n/a |
unrated |
n/a |
26 |
Igor Amorelli |
|
n/a |
unrated |
n/a |
27 |
Antônio Marcos da souza da silva |
|
n/a |
unrated |
n/a |
28 |
Gabriel Raff |
|
n/a |
unrated |
n/a |
29 |
Rodrigo Ferreira |
|
n/a |
unrated |
n/a |
30 |
Felipe De Oliveira Manente |
|
n/a |
unrated |
n/a |
31 |
Guto Antunes |
|
n/a |
unrated |
n/a |
32 |
Greg Close |
USA |
n/a |
unrated |
n/a |
33 |
Frederico Carvalho Zacharias |
|
n/a |
unrated |
n/a |
34 |
Marcio Roniak |
|
n/a |
unrated |
n/a |
The winning odds show a bit different picture:
- Eduardo Sturla: 35%
- Ezequiel Morales: 24%
- Guilherme Manocchio: 17%
- Santiago Ascenco: 16%
- Oscar Galindez: 8%
The odds put more weight on recent results, experience and performance on the course, so they are better at predicting who wins than the ratings (which predict a finishing time based on an athletes capabilities). This is why I’m giving the top-rated athlete (Santiago Ascenso) only a 16% chance to win (he only has three IM results) while the “slower” (even if only by two minutes) Eduardo Sturla (with a large number of fast results which include a couple of wins and great results in Brazil) is the overall favorite at 35%.
Female Participants
On the female side, the top rated athlete on the start list is Michelle Vesterby:
Rank |
Name |
Nation |
Expected Time |
Rating |
Rank |
1 |
Michelle Vesterby |
DNK |
09:22:18 |
09:36:09 |
26 |
2 |
Sofie Goos |
BEL |
09:30:26 |
09:44:29 |
47 |
3 |
Kim Loeffler |
USA |
09:33:13 |
09:47:20 |
53 |
4 |
Sara Gross |
CAN |
09:41:52 |
09:56:12 |
75 |
5 |
Dede Griesbauer |
USA |
09:44:57 |
09:59:21 |
85 |
6 |
Ana Lidia Borba |
BRA |
09:47:16 |
10:01:44 |
89 |
7 |
Hillary Biscay |
USA |
09:59:43 |
10:14:29 |
139 |
8 |
Maki Nishiuchi |
JPN |
10:08:50 |
10:23:50 |
170 |
9 |
Ariane Monticeli |
BRA |
10:08:55 |
10:23:55 |
171 |
10 |
Fernanda Keller |
BRA |
10:22:37 |
10:37:57 |
200 |
11 |
Silvia Fusco |
BRA |
10:23:12 |
10:38:33 |
202 |
12 |
Mariana Andrade |
BRA |
10:45:21 |
11:01:14 |
247 |
13 |
Alessandra Carvalho |
BRA |
10:47:17 |
11:03:13 |
249 |
14 |
Vanessa Gianinni |
BRA |
n/a |
unrated |
n/a |
As she is probably still celebrating her win at IM Lanzarote from last week, I don’t expect her to start. This is why I have two sets of winning odds (the odds in brackets are when Michelle is actually going to start):
- Sofie Goos: 34% (30%)
Dede Griesbauer: 25% (22%)
- Kim Loeffler: 28% (18%)
- Sara Gross: 17% (10%)
- Ariane Monticeli: 16% (9%)
- (Michelle Vesterby: 29%)
Even without Michelle or any “rock stars”, the race looks to be quite interesting: With Sofie Goos there is a solid athlete that has already won an IM (Florida 2009). Dede Griesbauer has a Brazil finishing record of 2-1-2 (2010, 2009 and 2007), but is coming back from an injury. Kim Loeffler and Sara Gross have a long list of races, but to the best of my knowledge haven’t won an IM yet. Hillary Biscay is another well-known racer – she will probably be happy if she manages to get another podium spot after a long (at least for her) four week break following her third place in Australia. I give her a 32% chance for that.
Update: Dede Griesbauer is not racing in Brazil this year, but hopes to win in 2013. Updated the odds.