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Ironman Mallorca 2016 (Sept 24th) – Predictions

Thanks to Jocelyn McCauley, here’s the sign-in sheet from the Pro Meeting:

Mallorca SignIn

This is not necessarily complete, but those that signed will definitely want to race on Sunday. (However, Till Schramm and Diana Riesler are no longer on the sign-in sheet so I crossed them out in the lists below.)

Previous WinnersIMMallorcaLogo

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2014 Tim Don (GBR) 08:34:02 Eimear Mullan (IRL) 09:24:17
2015 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:17:22 Daniela Saemmler (GER) 09:24:48

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Timo Bracht GER 00:49:57 04:32:16 02:50:59 08:17:22
2 James Cunnama ZAF 00:49:54 04:34:14 02:50:52 08:19:36
3 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 00:51:43 04:37:40 02:49:41 08:23:56

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Daniela Saemmler GER 00:57:29 05:06:28 03:14:44 09:24:48
2 Emma-Kate Lidbury GBR 00:55:11 05:09:30 03:21:11 09:31:49
3 Alexandra Tondeur BEL 00:58:47 05:14:35 03:14:17 09:34:32

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:17:22 Timo Bracht 2015-09-26
Swim overall 00:44:46 Manuel Kueng 2014-09-27
Bike overall 04:32:16 Timo Bracht 2015-09-26
Run overall 02:47:30 Miquel Blanchart Tinto 2014-09-27
Total female 09:24:17 Eimear Mullan 2014-09-27
Swim female 00:49:52 Mette Pettersen Moe 2014-09-27
Bike female 05:04:52 Nina Kuhn 2014-09-27
Run female 03:10:26 Eimear Mullan 2014-09-27

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Mallorca is 05:31.

Race Adjustments for IM Mallorca

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2014 02:50 02:33 01:02 03:10 44 of 58 02:50 02:33 01:02 03:10
2015 08:13 -01:13 08:32 02:31 26 of 39 05:31 00:40 04:47 02:50

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Mallorca is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 2 Markus Fachbach GER 08:32:10 08:42:16 00:49:16 04:37:28 03:00:25 61% +0% -39% (18) (66)
2 7 Konstantin Bachor GER 08:32:36 08:50:22 00:49:05 04:31:08 03:07:24 49% +9% -42% (10) (95)
3 29 Horst Reichel GER 08:34:45 09:05:54 00:48:23 04:40:45 03:00:37 6% +16% -79% (16) (153)
4 1 Marcel Zamora ESP 08:38:17 08:40:55 00:51:05 04:46:45 02:55:28 97% +0% -3% (13) (59)
5 42 Ritchie Nicholls GBR 08:38:19 08:58:34 00:50:11 04:53:31 02:49:37 47% +0% -53% (4) (121)
6 48 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:40:57 08:46:42 00:53:12 04:46:33 02:56:13 47% +9% -44% (23) 83
7 14 Herve Faure FRA 08:41:59 08:50:23 00:50:53 04:43:17 03:02:49 45% +0% -55% (8) (95)
8 12 Roman Deisenhofer GER 08:43:21 08:59:36 00:52:25 04:37:36 03:08:20 27% +73% -0% (5) 125
9 30 Michael Ruenz GER 08:45:09 08:53:01 00:54:59 04:48:51 02:56:19 63% +0% -37% (8) 100
10 26 Matic Modic SLO 08:45:58 08:58:03 00:54:47 04:49:17 02:56:53 49% +43% -8% (8) 120
11 3 Carlos Lopez Diaz ESP 08:46:16 09:05:53 00:46:51 04:46:15 03:08:10 26% +13% -61% (6) 152
12 34 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 08:46:20 08:53:46 00:52:39 04:45:47 03:02:55 96% +4% -0% (7) 101
13 32 Alexander Schilling GER 08:47:10 09:03:20 00:46:39 04:49:44 03:05:48 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (138)
14 36 Darby Thomas FIN 08:47:35 08:56:34 00:58:33 04:44:41 02:59:21 48% +7% -45% (8) 114
15 44 Samuel Huerzeler SUI 08:54:52 09:08:50 00:52:29 04:54:02 03:03:21 68% +32% -0% (6) 160
16 43 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:56:40 09:03:07 00:59:35 04:47:20 03:04:45 89% +8% -3% (60) 137
17 25 Tomas Mika CZE 08:59:16 09:09:20 00:54:00 05:00:23 02:59:52 89% +11% -0% (6) 163
18 4 Michael Van Cleven BEL 09:01:42 09:18:18 00:49:35 04:37:22 03:29:46 61% +0% -39% (2) (190)
19 18 Mikita Hryhoryeu POL 09:03:21 09:15:27 00:51:26 05:00:14 03:06:41 100% +0% -0% (2) (185)
20 9 Bart Borghs BEL 09:03:26 09:20:05 01:00:33 04:58:17 02:59:36 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (196)
21 8 Herve Banti MCO 09:07:39 09:26:06 00:51:33 04:48:31 03:22:35 22% +0% -78% (6) (211)
22 45 Johan Kaerner SWE 09:10:44 09:33:18 00:58:48 04:52:04 03:14:53 38% +0% -62% (2) (229)
23 33 Till Schramm GER 09:12:26 09:30:19 00:56:25 04:55:14 03:15:47 7% +38% -55% (6) 222
24 50 Gustavo Rodriguez ESP 09:14:30 09:26:09 00:53:37 04:58:06 03:17:47 100% +0% -0% (2) (212)
25 24 Michael Louys BEL 09:16:49 09:40:34 01:02:17 04:53:39 03:15:53 52% +8% -41% (11) 245
26 10 Thomas Bosch GER 09:22:43 09:48:40 00:58:51 05:03:34 03:15:18 40% +0% -60% (2) (258)
27 40 Urs Mueller SUI 09:23:09 09:34:41 00:56:13 04:59:00 03:22:55 65% +0% -35% (3) (231)
28 37 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 09:24:12 09:33:06 00:57:00 05:01:21 03:20:51 43% +0% -57% (5) (229)
29 49 Guillaume Jeannin FRA 09:27:20 09:50:34 00:50:39 04:56:47 03:34:54 23% +0% -77% (4) (262)
30 19 David Jilek CZE 09:27:32 09:39:13 00:57:46 05:00:17 03:24:28 64% +21% -15% (7) 242
31 28 Sebastian Pedraza ITA 09:33:59 09:23:42 00:55:42 05:00:07 03:33:11 13% +4% -84% (14) 202
32 47 Vincent Depuiset FRA 09:35:52 09:52:53 01:07:21 05:06:48 03:16:44 60% +28% -12% (9) 264
33 13 Rafael Espinar Puig ESP 09:36:56 09:48:59 01:05:33 05:17:33 03:08:49 68% +0% -32% (6) 259
34 41 Alfred Rahm GER 09:41:34 09:56:49 01:03:44 05:08:01 03:24:49 43% +0% -56% (18) 269
35 17 Jan Hron CZE 09:49:04 10:01:13 01:01:29 05:23:49 03:18:46 100% +0% -0% (2) (275)
36 23 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 09:57:09 10:15:29 01:00:21 05:22:38 03:29:10 59% +4% -38% (21) 283
37 6 Santiago Abad de Agueda ESP 10:30:50 10:56:40 01:03:04 05:24:02 03:58:45 49% +0% -51% (2) (298)
38 11 Simon Brierley SEY 10:42:47 10:49:37 00:59:11 05:25:50 04:12:46 100% +0% -0% (3) 295
39 22 David Krupicka CZE 10:45:48 10:59:26 01:04:22 05:23:12 04:13:14 100% +0% -0% (2) (298)
40 27 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:38:17 12:16:37 01:11:57 05:51:22 04:29:58 30% +23% -47% (36) 302
5 Joan Nadal Clar ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
15 Francisco Fernandez Cortes ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
16 Erik Holmberg SWE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
20 Philipp Koutny SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
21 Alen Kralj SVN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
31 Kevin Rundstadler FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (3) (n/a)
35 Tomas Swift-Metcalfe GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
38 Chris Walker GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
39 Richard Westover GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
46 Hannes Bonami BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 53 Diana Riesler GER 09:23:37 09:31:45 00:57:27 05:01:20 03:19:50 46% +14% -40% (18) 31
2 54 Emma Bilham SUI 09:26:59 09:38:59 00:53:57 05:11:41 03:16:21 100% +0% -0% (2) (49)
3 51 Natascha Schmitt GER 09:30:14 09:52:58 00:53:19 05:08:44 03:23:10 25% +42% -33% (6) 72
4 60 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 09:52:21 10:00:27 00:58:50 05:28:41 03:19:50 100% +0% -0% (3) 89
5 66 Tineke Van den Berg NED 09:56:01 10:10:14 01:04:07 05:14:07 03:32:47 72% +10% -18% (6) 105
6 57 Jocelyn McCauley USA 09:58:35 10:23:05 00:59:01 05:26:49 03:27:44 41% +0% -59% (4) (130)
7 68 Petra Krejcova CZE 10:04:58 10:12:11 01:01:16 05:33:29 03:25:13 100% +0% -0% (3) 108
8 67 Diane Luethi SUI 10:05:23 10:23:56 00:54:15 05:28:04 03:38:04 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (136)
9 61 Lina-Kristin Schink GER 10:06:06 10:14:09 01:12:01 05:20:03 03:29:02 78% +0% -22% (6) 111
10 65 Nicole Woysch GER 10:06:27 10:15:54 01:01:11 05:22:50 03:37:25 44% +2% -53% (23) 113
11 64 Helena Herrero Gomez ESP 10:12:08 10:30:23 00:59:17 05:44:58 03:22:53 25% +0% -75% (5) (144)
12 70 Maja Stage Nielsen DEN 10:13:25 10:51:20 01:05:25 05:26:53 03:36:08 45% +0% -55% (2) (160)
13 69 Nina Kuhn GER 10:13:43 10:35:41 01:00:30 05:33:00 03:35:13 62% +0% -38% (2) (153)
14 62 Alena Stevens SVK 10:14:58 10:24:38 01:01:34 05:36:40 03:31:45 65% +23% -12% (5) (136)
15 55 Jessica Ahlund SWE 10:59:23 11:19:35 01:02:13 05:44:12 04:07:58 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (164)
16 63 Deborah Van Gossum BEL 11:00:11 11:23:35 00:54:52 05:40:09 04:20:10 20% +80% -0% (2) (164)
56 Nikki Bartlett GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
58 Lauren Parker AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
59 Sara Svensk SWE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Markus Fachbach: 44% (1-1)
  • Horst Reichel: 25% (3-1)
  • Konstantin Bachor: 17% (5-1)
  • Ritchie Nicholls: 4% (23-1)
  • Trevor Delsaut: 3% (34-1)
  • Roman Deisenhofer: 2% (56-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Diana Riesler: 47% (1-1)
  • Emma Bilham: 19% (4-1) 43% (1-1)
  • Natascha Schmitt: 23% (3-1) 26% (3-1)
  • Leslie DiMichele Miller: 6% (15-1) 15% (6-1)
  • Tineke Van den Berg: 3% (35-1) 5% (17-1)

Ironman Wisconsin 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Ironman Wisconsin’s lake swim has always been pretty slow, and this year was no exception: A swim adjustment of -4:42 was the slowest this season outside of Kona, and pretty much responsible for the overall adjustment of -4:27. 

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Elizabeth Lyles USA 01:02:35 05:15:40 03:08:10 09:33:47 03:18 US$ 20000
2 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 01:01:24 05:26:59 03:08:24 09:43:39 -15:39 US$ 10000
3 Katie Thomas USA 00:59:33 05:14:23 03:28:14 09:49:27 -29:18 US$ 6500
4 Alyssa Godesky USA 01:04:03 05:25:53 03:16:59 09:53:44 -22:44 US$ 4000
5 Amanda Stevens USA 00:54:57 05:23:08 03:32:05 09:58:20 21:29 US$ 3000
6 Christine Hammond USA 00:59:34 05:27:22 03:28:47 10:02:38 -00:28 US$ 2000
7 Ashley Paulson USA 01:22:35 05:33:57 03:13:29 10:17:38 -00:10 US$ 1500
8 Heather Leiggi USA 01:08:15 05:27:31 03:37:22 10:20:33 07:32 US$ 1250
9 Danielle Fischer USA 01:11:47 05:33:26 03:31:28 10:25:29 n/a US$ 1000
10 Molly Roohi USA 01:07:21 05:37:39 03:35:01 10:29:58 13:24 US$ 750
11 Cathleen Knutson USA 01:15:43 05:48:18 03:36:53 10:47:57 -07:19  
12 Nicole Luse USA 01:16:14 05:55:44 03:33:55 10:53:04 n/a  

Challenge Almere 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Similar to last year Challenge Almere was quite quick especially on the bike, probably a result of decent weather and nice temperatures. While 2013/14 had rain (adjustment about 6 minutes), the last two years were faster (adjustment of 17 and 22 minutes) – the course rating splits the difference at 13:02, roughly comparable to Arizona.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Jan Raphael GER 00:48:13 04:18:44 02:52:25 08:03:43 -14:37 EUR 6000
2 Dirk Wijnalda NED 00:53:33 04:27:22 02:49:59 08:14:48 -19:23 EUR 3900
3 Marek Jaskolka POL 00:48:18 04:41:03 02:49:57 08:23:48 -01:04 EUR 2750
4 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 00:52:26 04:28:20 02:59:27 08:24:46 -03:05 EUR 1900
5 Diederik Scheltinga NED 00:52:27 04:28:14 03:00:49 08:26:13 -14:44 EUR 1500
6 Peter Seidel GER 00:52:23 04:36:01 02:58:12 08:32:04 -34:06 EUR 1200
7 Graeme Stewart GBR 00:52:25 04:25:47 03:08:38 08:32:29 -18:53 EUR 1000
8 Pascal Ramali GER 00:58:10 04:22:22 03:09:40 08:35:12 -06:48 EUR 750
9 Till Schramm GER 00:52:29 04:28:09 03:18:38 08:43:57 -19:19  
10 Daniel Mugica Corrales ESP 00:52:26 04:39:44 03:09:45 08:46:48 -15:57  
11 Allan Hovda NOR 00:59:28 04:28:20 03:16:29 08:48:52 -06:03  
12 Youri Severin NED 00:48:09 04:36:16 03:25:14 08:54:08 17:52  
13 Stefan Overmars NED 00:53:26 04:31:29 03:24:37 08:54:52 n/a  
14 Christian Otto GER 00:48:09 04:35:32 03:26:15 08:56:00 n/a  
15 Josef Krivanek CZE 00:55:16 04:40:10 03:17:00 08:57:37 -24:07  
16 Patrick Hansen DEN 00:55:01 04:50:38 03:08:26 08:59:06 n/a  
17 Sergio Marques POR 00:53:29 04:56:02 03:06:14 09:01:19 28:59  
18 Jarmo Rissanen FIN 01:07:39 04:35:26 03:17:14 09:04:52 n/a  
19 Tjerk Tjallema NED 00:48:22 05:20:11 03:30:23 09:43:21 14:53  
  Matthias Knossalla GER 01:01:30 04:19:04   DNF    
  Marcus Hultgren SWE 00:56:40 04:34:01   DNF    
  Malte Bruns GER 00:52:22 04:40:24   DNF    

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Camille Deligny FRA 00:59:55 04:43:11 03:30:04 09:18:15 -07:13 EUR 6000
2 Mirjam Weerd NED 00:52:17 04:51:50 03:31:23 09:20:59 03:57 EUR 3900
3 Simona Krivankova CZE 01:06:41 05:01:32 03:11:19 09:24:48 -28:35 EUR 2750
4 Erika Csomor HUN 01:00:13 05:04:11 03:18:09 09:27:58 14:59 EUR 1900
5 Julia Mai GER 00:59:59 05:08:06 03:31:26 09:45:06 n/a EUR 1500
6 Vanessa Pereira POR 01:00:15 05:08:10 03:31:31 09:47:23 -16:24 EUR 1200
7 Lucie Van Genugten NED 01:06:48 05:03:25 03:36:04 09:52:17 n/a EUR 1000
8 Carla Van Rooijen NED 01:15:52 05:07:20 03:28:20 09:57:44 10:24 EUR 750
9 Ilona Eversdijk NED 00:56:12 05:08:29 04:35:41 10:47:28 n/a  
  Kathrin Walther GER 00:59:54 05:00:02   DNF    
  Brooke Brown CAN 00:59:57 05:05:01   DNF    
  Ewa Bugdol POL 00:54:32     DNF    

Well Ranked Pros Not Racing Kona

There are a number of professional athletes that are ranked high in the KPR but still won’t be racing Kona: Some didn’t race an Ironman even though they would have had enough points to qualify (“Didn’t Validate”), some declined the slots they were offered (“Declined”). This post looks at these athletes and discusses their reasons for not being on the startline in Kona. To those that can’t race Kona this year because of an injury, speedy healing!

Emma Bilham (SUI, Declined)

EmmaFrance

Emma has been racing as a Pro in 70.3s in 2014 and 2015, including a 10th place at the 70.3 Worlds in 2015. This season she continued to race well in  70.3s but also stepped up to the full distance, quickly finding great success: Two second places at IM France (behind five-time winner Tine Deckers) and at IM Switzerland (behind Daniela Ryf posting the first sub-9 in Zürich) gave her enough points for a Kona slot.

After some deliberation, she decided to decline her slot. “Mainly I’m not going to Kona this year as it’s my first year doing long distance races and I don’t believe I have the necessary experience to tackle Kona yet, or the level to produce a competitive result. Also, it is an expensive trip which requires a great deal of physical and nervous energy. At this stage in my career I would rather focus on other races around that time to pick up valuable experience, points and hopefully some pennies, to put towards 2017. My next races include Challenge Mogan (Gran Canaria), IM Mallorca, possibly Asia and IM Malaysia. I’m just going with the flow this year and following my nose and heart!”

If she continues to learn as fast as she has this season, I have no doubt that she’ll be racing Kona very soon .. and that she’ll be competitive!

Photo: Emma finishing second at IM France, Credit: Getty Images for Ironman

Liz Blatchford (AUS, Didn’t Validate)

After a great third place in Kona 2015, Liz was practically assured a slot – provided she finished another Ironman race to fulfill the minimum requirements. She decided to focus on her “home race” IM Cairns that she had won three times in a row from 2013 to 2015. The fact that is was designated the Asia-pacific Regional Championship was another good reason to race there. While she was racing some 70.3s in the months leading up to Cairns, a foot injury kept her from doing proper run training and she was forced to cancel her start at Cairns, instead supporting the race on the media side being part of the IMLive broadcast.

Liz was optimistic that putting her foot in a boot would quicken up the healing – here’s a picture she posted on Instagram shortly before Cairns:

LizPhoto

She hoped to be able to race IM Mont Tremblant – a race she’s done before her two Kona podiums finishing fourth and second, and one she’d love to win. However in late July she had to announce that she won’t be able to race after all:

“I’m homeward bound which means no Ironman anytime soon.. which unfortunately means no Kona. It seems this little foot and perhaps the universe has other plans for me this year. Still unable to run and with no known return to running date, getting through an Ironman in the next month is just not an option. I’m in a surprisingly good head space about it. I’m actually very grateful that my foot, with basically the same injury last year, was less symptomatic and allowed me to get through Kona so well.”

Michelle Bremer (AUS, Declined)

Michelle has raced very well in the 2016 season: She started the “Australian summer” with two fifth places in 70.3s, then was sixth at IM New Zealand and almost won IM Australia when she posted a new marathon PR of 3:11 but was run down by Beth Gerdes who ran a 2:56. After a fourth place at the Regional Championships in Cairns she had more than enough points for a July slot.

She had some time to make a decision about her slot, but finally declined: “My heart wasn’t in racing at Kona this year. We have had an expensive year with buying a new home, furniture, car and puppy, and Kona is a very expensive trip. The final decision was made with being sick with the flu and chest infection the past couple of weeks – so I just felt that I’m better off physically, mentally and financially bypassing Kona this year and allowing someone else who really wants to race there to have the slot! I’ll be there racing one day in the near future for sure, just not this year.”

Beth Gerdes (USA, Declined)

Beth seems to always be on the edge of Pro Kona qualifying. Last season she had to do a lot of racing until she finally secured her slot by winning IM Switzerland in late July. After a 15th place in Kona she focused on 70.3 racing for most of the Australian summer. In May she was able to get her second IM win by running a spectacular 2:56 marathon at IM Australia – followed by getting married to fellow Pro Luke McKenzie. After that she wanted to defend her Switzerland title, but things didn’t go to plan and she took “a mind and body break”. This left her on the edge for July qualifying – after all the racing was done she ended up in the final July slot.

While Beth initially accepted her slot, she was forced to decline it a few days later. In early August she wrote on her blog: “Just as I was hopeful that things were starting to pick up again, I got another doozy. I have a pretty large cyst that needs to be removed with a minor surgery. As it is in the ‘saddle region’- no cycling for 4 to 6 weeks. Just under 10 weeks out from Kona, that’s a deal-breaker for me, especially on top of all the other things I have going on right now. So, although I accepted a July qualification spot, I am returning that slot to another deserving woman.” For now Beth is focused on helping husband Luke in his lead-up to Kona.

Rachel Joyce (GBR, Didn’t Validate)

After Rachel’s second place in Kona 2015 it was a bit of surprise when she announced in March that she was pregnant and would be sitting out the 2016 season. She has written at length on witsup (“A Joyful Bump in the Road for Joyce“) how she and her partner Brett Hedges decided to prioritize getting pregnant. Qualifying and racing in Kona was obviously out of the question for her and while she would like to return to racing, she says she doesn’t have a fixed schedule and will take things based on how she feels after the birth. On August 8th, Rachel gave birth to little Archie and posted this photo on Instagram:

Archie

Congratulations to Rachel and Brett, enjoy this new exciting phase in your lives!

Chris Leiferman (USA, Declined)

When Chris was lining up for IM Mont Tremblant, he had scored a decent number of points in 70.3 races (including a second place at 70.3 Boulder) – but I considered his chances of qualifying as more as less theoretical as it would require a win in his first Pro Ironman against a very good field including defending Champion Jordan Rapp and a number of other, more experienced athletes looking for Kona points. But winning the race is exactly what he did, storming into first place with a 2:45 run on a day when there were only three sub-3h runs. This was enough for him to move into the 10th and final qualifying spot in the August KPR.

Chris quickly declined his slot, here’s his view: “The biggest reason of me not taking my Kona slot is because it wasn’t part of the plan. I want a little more experience in the fulls before I put a giant financial stress on racing in Hawaii. And I’m not only wanting experience for Kona, I’m wanting experience for the full distance as a whole. So more fulls will do that for me.”

Caroline Steffen (SUI, Didn’t Validate)

Caroline has had some great results in Kona, coming close to winning in 2010 (when she finished second to Miranda Carfrae) and 2012 (second to Leanda Cave). She’s been eying the top spot for a while, and her two 5th places in 2013 and 2014 were almost disappointments for her. Her 2015 season didn’t go to well with a lot of little injuries and sicknesses, in Kona a stomach bug only allowed her to finish ninth after a long, hard day of grinding it out.

For 2016 Caroline took a different approach. She decided to travel not quite as much and to focus on 70.3 racing, winning or finishing second in a long list of races. She finished a very respectable fifth in the 70.3 Championships in her adopted home town in Mooloolaba. Under the guidance of her new coach, Daniel Plews, expect her to be back to Ironman Hawaii next year – and to be a serious contender for at least a podium finish!

Matt Trautman (ZAF, Declined)

So far Matt hasn’t had much success racing Kona as a Pro. He turned Pro after he was the second fastest agegrouper in Kona 2013, last year he qualified but then broke his collarbone in June, still managing to start in Kona. After being in the second pack in the swim he tried to catch the lead group with Marino Vanhoenacker, Bart Aernouts and Ronnie Schildknecht but thinks he “overcooked in the heat”. Similar to the athletes he was riding with, he ended his race shortly after the start of the run.

Matt had a solid 2016 season: A fourth place in the Regional Championships in South Africa and a few nice wins in 70.3s (Korea, South Africa, Staffordshire and Durban) easily qualified him in the July KPR. But in early July he announced on Twitter that he was having problems that were subsequently diagnosed as a broken ankle:

MattyTweet

At that point his hopes for Kona were slim and by the end of July he declined his slot.

By the end of August he has made some progress: “Updated situation is that the fracture has healed and so now I’m starting the rehab process. Will run in the Alter-G for the next week or so then will look at getting back in the road. No race plans yet but looking at November/December.”

Annah Watkinson (ZAF, Declined)

This year was Annah’s first season as a Professional after picking up triathlon pretty late in her life: “I dabbled in gymnastics (started too old – which seems to be the theme of my sporting life), running then cycling (due to a boyfriend – the usual story) and started triathlon in 2010.” She had some great results as an agegrouper, including qualifying three times for Kona (but only racing it once), finishing 3rd in the W30-34 agegroup in Kona 2015 and posting a 9:31 in Austria 2015 that is faster than the South African Pro record of 9:37 by Diane Emery. She is coached by South African Ironman legend Raynard Tissink, and it was Raynard who suggested to consider racing Pro – much to her surprise. “My career as an Investment Banker has been my focus for most of my life, so taking your foot off the gas at work was a tough decision. Even though I am racing Pro, I still have a full time job to take into consideration and it still influences a lot of my decisions, recovery, training and racing opportunities overseas. Ultimately Raynard believes it is still holding back my progress – not necessarily to how far I can go, but rather how quickly I get there.”

AnnahWatkinson

Annah didn’t take long to adjust to the new level of racing: Her Pro debut was a 3rd place in 70.3 South Africa in January 2016 followed by an 8th place at her home Ironman in Port Elizabeth. This summer she won 70.3 Durban, was 9th in 70.3 Vineman as part of her build up towards IM Lake Placid where she finished second. “I have used every race this year as validation of my decision to race professionally and I feel that although I am making gains, there is still a big gap between myself and those top girls. I had to change my mental state, from ‘oh my goodness, these are all the athletes I looked up to’ to ‘these are my competitors, I am ready to race them’ – it is getting there but has been a real challenge.” Even though she was short of the cutoff in July and didn’t race in August, she received the last August qualifying slot which she declined.

“It was tough to decline the spot – but without a doubt in my mind it is the right decision. When I decided to turn Pro it was with the idea that I could (on the perfect day) be in a position to get into the Top 10 at Kona. Unless I am doing better in the local and international races, I am not going to Kona just for an experience. I have been to Kona twice and I want to at least be competitive even if I don’t get the result I want. I will be racing at IM Barcelona this year and a couple of 70.3 races at the end of the year.”

Ironman Wales 2016 (Sept 18th) – Predictions

IMWalesLogo

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Jeremy Jurkiewicz (FRA) 09:04:21 Kristin Moeller (GER) 10:01:19
2012 Sylvain Rota (FRA) 08:52:43 Regula Rohrbach (SUI) 09:45:09
2013 Scott Neyedli (GBR) 09:09:10 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 09:51:21
2014 Matt Trautman (ZAF) 09:07:28 Amy Forshaw (GBR) 10:57:26
2015 Jesse Thomas (USA) 08:57:33 Anja Beranek (GER) 09:56:31

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jesse Thomas USA 00:54:20 05:03:28 02:52:19 08:57:33
2 Andrej Vistica CRO 00:57:00 05:05:46 02:52:18 09:03:09
3 Markus Thomschke GER 00:57:01 04:57:14 03:12:54 09:14:52

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Anja Beranek GER 00:54:26 05:30:15 03:23:16 09:56:31
2 Tineke Van den Berg NED 01:09:13 05:45:44 03:22:42 10:28:22
3 Katja Konschak GER 00:56:54 06:06:34 03:13:50 10:29:55

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:52:43 Sylvain Rota 2012-09-16
Swim overall 00:44:07 Daniel Halksworth 2012-09-16
Swim overall 00:44:07 Harry Wiltshire 2012-09-16
Bike overall 04:57:14 Markus Thomschke 2015-09-13
Run overall 02:48:01 Jeremy Jurkiewicz 2011-09-11
Total female 09:45:09 Regula Rohrbach 2012-09-16
Swim female 00:47:55 Anja Beranek 2011-09-11
Bike female 05:30:15 Anja Beranek 2015-09-13
Run female 03:02:28 Kristin Moeller 2011-09-11

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Wales is – 27:21.

Race Adjustments for IM Wales

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 -26:47 04:25 -25:00 01:30 22 -26:47 04:25 -25:00 01:30
2012 -01:01 04:46 -23:15 17:14 25 -13:54 04:36 -24:07 09:22
2013 -30:00 00:57 -28:24 -01:27 22 -19:16 03:23 -25:33 05:46
2014 -45:23 -03:51 -28:24 -05:49 14 of 16 -25:48 01:34 -26:16 02:52
2015 -33:32 -03:54 -27:05 04:01 22 of 26 -27:21 00:29 -26:26 03:06

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Wales is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 21 Alberto Casadei ITA 09:03:27 08:43:16 00:47:48 05:16:08 02:54:31 30% +34% -36% (8) 68
2 27 Fraser Cartmell GBR 09:07:01 08:58:43 00:48:28 05:07:44 03:05:49 33% +8% -59% (11) 122
3 23 Marc Duelsen GER 09:08:56 08:42:26 00:52:55 05:11:32 02:59:28 78% +0% -22% (8) 67
4 26 Ritchie Nicholls GBR 09:13:44 08:58:34 00:50:19 05:27:16 02:51:09 47% +0% -53% (4) (121)
5 28 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 09:18:43 08:53:46 00:52:59 05:17:30 03:03:13 96% +4% -0% (7) 101
6 25 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 09:21:47 09:00:33 00:51:29 05:09:57 03:15:22 48% +25% -27% (10) 130
7 22 Nick Baldwin SEY 09:22:19 09:02:31 00:52:26 05:15:48 03:09:06 60% +0% -40% (16) 135
8 42 Philip Graves GBR 09:24:18 08:52:21 00:47:38 05:11:03 03:20:37 100% +0% -0% (5) (98)
9 36 Swen Sundberg GER 09:25:02 08:59:02 00:53:05 05:18:12 03:08:46 55% +1% -44% (17) (123)
10 24 Mike Schifferle SUI 09:27:28 09:03:07 00:59:48 05:17:53 03:04:47 89% +8% -3% (60) 137
11 47 Daniel Niederreiter AUT 09:27:51 09:08:47 00:51:36 05:23:49 03:07:26 47% +0% -53% (13) (160)
12 46 Karol Dzalaj SVK 09:29:39 09:13:24 00:53:49 05:18:27 03:12:24 70% +11% -18% (13) (178)
13 32 Cedric Lassonde FRA 09:33:48 09:08:16 00:55:10 05:22:54 03:10:45 80% +0% -20% (7) 158
14 33 Graeme Stewart GBR 09:37:58 09:17:51 00:54:16 05:28:21 03:10:21 41% +7% -52% (13) 188
15 45 Herve Banti MCO 09:41:19 09:26:06 00:51:58 05:21:04 03:23:17 22% +0% -78% (6) (211)
16 31 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:45:49 09:37:20 00:53:07 05:35:16 03:12:27 18% +7% -75% (8) 238
17 30 Oliver Simon GBR 09:47:33 09:38:53 00:48:27 05:24:35 03:29:31 55% +0% -45% (12) 241
18 35 David Jilek CZE 10:02:26 09:39:13 00:58:14 05:34:05 03:25:07 64% +21% -15% (7) 242
19 34 Eneko Elosegui ESP 10:07:10 09:41:45 00:59:04 05:31:09 03:31:57 62% +12% -25% (16) 249
20 38 Rafael Espinar Puig ESP 10:17:22 09:48:59 01:05:52 05:55:31 03:10:59 68% +0% -32% (6) 259
21 39 Gilian Oriet SUI 10:25:10 10:13:57 00:57:48 05:41:55 03:40:27 17% +8% -75% (12) 282
22 29 Robbie Wade IRL 10:35:29 10:23:11 00:58:44 05:44:17 03:47:28 39% +0% -61% (2) (288)
23 37 David Krupicka CZE 11:25:31 10:59:26 01:05:05 06:00:39 04:14:48 100% +0% -0% (2) (298)
40 Brennan Townshend GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
41 Kevin Rundstadler FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (3) (n/a)
43 Hannes Vandermoere BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
44 Dominic Rohan-Gates GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (2) (n/a)
48 Matthias Epping GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 2 Diana Riesler GER 09:58:17 09:31:45 00:57:52 05:35:03 03:20:21 46% +14% -40% (18) 31
2 11 Darbi Roberts USA 10:14:13 09:58:31 00:52:45 05:53:01 03:23:27 37% +0% -63% (5) 85
3 7 Jeanne Collonge FRA 10:19:14 10:09:20 00:57:59 05:48:34 03:27:40 37% +16% -47% (9) (103)
4 6 Lucy Charles GBR 10:19:38 10:01:38 00:47:15 05:58:25 03:28:59 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (91)
5 3 Katharina Grohmann GER 10:27:40 10:03:46 01:10:59 05:54:48 03:16:53 100% +0% -0% (12) 94
6 8 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 10:29:09 10:00:27 00:59:07 06:03:35 03:21:27 100% +0% -0% (3) 89
7 10 Kate Comber GBR 10:30:39 10:06:14 00:53:57 06:02:32 03:29:11 100% +0% -0% (2) (98)
8 4 Caroline Livesey GBR 10:36:08 10:07:05 01:01:26 05:57:57 03:31:45 68% +0% -32% (7) 98
9 9 Kristin Lie NOR 10:41:33 10:14:01 01:12:18 05:53:43 03:30:32 82% +0% -18% (13) (110)
5 Nikki Bartlett GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Alberto Casadei: 37% (2-1)
  • Marc Duelsen: 27% (3-1)
  • Fraser Cartmell: 18% (5-1)
  • Ritchie Nicholls: 6% (16-1)
  • Erik-Simon Strijk: 5% (17-1)
  • Mike Schifferle: 2% (42-1)
  • Nick Baldwin: 2% (60-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Diana Riesler: 48% (1-1)
  • Jeanne Collonge: 13% (7-1)
  • Katharina Grohmann: 13% (7-1)
  • Darbi Roberts: 10% (9-1)
  • Leslie DiMichele Miller: 8% (11-1)
  • Lucy Charles: 4% (25-1)
  • Kate Comber: 2% (46-1)
  • Caroline Livesey: 2% (62-1)
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