Update (June 22nd): Asa Lundstroem announced that she is focused on qualifying for Kona and won’t be able to start in Motala. There are also rumors that because of low water temperatures the swim will be shortened or changed to a run.

Update (June 23rd): There have been a few changes to the start list. Most notably, Camilla Pedersen is now defending her title from last year. 

The ITU Long Distance World Championships are contested over the “Nice Distance” of 4k swim, 120k bike and 30k run. It’s an interesting distance that puts some more weight on swimming and while it is obviously longer than the “middle distance” of half-IMs it does not require the prolonged recovery of a full distance Ironman race. (The Ratings shown in the start lists below are based on Ironman distance races, they are only an indication of each athlete’s capabilities and not a prediction of their time on the course.)

Winning the race is quite prestigious, and the event has always attracted a few big names. Some recent winners on the male side are Tim O’Donnell (2009), Jordan Rapp (2011), Chris McCormack (2012) and Bertrand Billard (2013 and 2014). Some women’s winners are Leanda Cave (2008), Chrissie Wellington (2009), Carolin Steffen (2010 and 2012), Rachel Joyce (2011), Melissa Hauschildt (2013) and Camilla Pedersen (2014).

This year’s event is held in Motala, Sweden, celebrating the 50th anniversary of 300km Vätternrundan, the biggest recreational bike ride worldwide (roughly 18.000 finishers per year).

Male Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Overall
1	Dirk Bockel	LUX	n/a	08:21:49	00:47:03	04:33:05	02:58:48	4
2	Ronnie Schildknecht	SUI	n/a	08:27:12	00:51:27	04:37:30	02:55:07	12
3	Cyril Viennot	FRA	n/a	08:33:18	00:50:48	04:40:56	02:57:29	28
4	Rasmus Henning	DEN	n/a	08:33:32	00:47:21	04:38:13	03:04:28	(29)
5	Martin Jensen	DEN	n/a	08:33:58	00:48:23	04:38:15	02:55:14	(30)
6	Joe Gambles	AUS	n/a	08:40:06	00:48:35	04:44:27	03:03:45	49
7	Patrik Nilsson	SWE	n/a	08:40:33	00:48:43	04:41:57	03:03:18	52
8	Joe Skipper	GBR	n/a	08:43:20	00:53:18	04:41:44	02:57:44	58
9	Henrik Hyldelund	DEN	n/a	08:46:01	00:47:39	04:38:03	03:11:03	65
10	Andrej Vistica	CRO	n/a	08:46:44	00:52:46	04:42:53	03:01:40	68
11	Filip Ospaly	CZE	n/a	08:47:06	00:47:02	04:53:13	03:03:34	72
12	Jarmo Hast	FIN	n/a	08:47:27	00:50:32	04:52:38	03:01:18	75
13	Peter Robertson	AUS	n/a	08:53:49	00:47:56	04:47:16	03:05:51	(98)
14	Alberto Casadei	ITA	n/a	08:57:55	00:47:33	04:55:31	03:02:43	119
15	Andrey Lyatskiy	RUS	n/a	08:59:26	00:48:29	04:55:55	03:12:00	123
16	Pontus Lindberg	SWE	n/a	09:00:08	00:53:14	04:53:58	03:04:25	129
17	David Naesvik	SWE	n/a	09:07:25	00:54:37	04:48:33	03:15:05	154
18	Ritchie Nicholls	GBR	n/a	09:08:04	00:48:57	05:01:31	02:59:15	(158)
19	Tohara Kaito	JPN	n/a	09:13:38	00:54:19	05:07:19	03:01:49	184
20	Andreas Niedrig	GER	n/a	09:15:38	00:47:36	04:49:38	03:36:30	192
21	Kuniaki Takahama	JPN	n/a	09:16:01	00:48:27	05:16:41	02:58:35	(193)
22	Bertrand Billard	FRA	n/a	09:17:42	00:48:05	04:39:58	03:35:16	(197)
23	Karl-Johan Danielsson	SWE	n/a	09:20:24	00:49:21	04:52:05	03:30:16	215
	Gustavo Rodriguez	ESP	n/a	09:25:37	00:53:22	04:57:51	03:18:03	(243)
24	Fredrik Carlen	SWE	n/a	09:33:09	00:54:07	04:58:36	03:25:16	(267)
25	Georgy Kaurov	RUS	n/a	09:33:14	00:49:42	04:57:10	03:23:57	(267)
26	John Hirsch	USA	n/a	09:47:08	00:54:59	05:14:56	03:23:59	315
27	Eddy Lamers	NED	n/a	10:05:25	00:51:47	04:55:04	03:56:30	(378)
28	Evgeniy Nikitin	RUS	n/a	10:19:03	00:51:31	05:15:52	03:59:06	417
29	Ruedi Wild	SUI	n/a	10:56:00	00:48:54	04:47:12	04:47:47	(458)
30	Aleksandr Kocetkov	LTU	n/a	11:09:43	01:07:45	05:40:09	03:53:54	(463)
31	Diederik Scheltinga	NED	n/a	11:43:33	00:52:16	05:26:42	04:54:56	(465)
	Josh Amberger	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Juan Manuel Asconape	ARG	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Sam Betten	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	George Bjalkemo	SWE	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Alexey Brylev	RUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Jonathan Ciavattella	ITA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Jose Estrangeiro	PRT	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Hector Fonseca	CRC	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Kim Harju	FIN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Mikita Hryhoryeu	POL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Joel Jokinen	FIN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Ken Koike	JPN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Daniel Mugica Corrales	ESP	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Attila Szabó	HUN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Nikolay Yaroshenko	RUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Overall
1	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	n/a	09:17:08	00:50:41	05:07:00	03:15:37	7
	Camilla Pedersen	DEN	n/a	09:24:46	00:51:00	05:06:40	03:18:23	19
2	Asa Lundstroem	SWE	n/a	09:32:35	01:00:14	05:12:37	03:17:22	29
3	Eva Nystroem	SWE	n/a	09:43:22	01:03:35	05:11:40	03:23:53	(49)
4	Ariane Monticeli	BRA	n/a	09:53:18	01:02:59	05:29:19	03:13:41	70
5	Camilla Lindholm	SWE	n/a	10:07:08	01:10:01	05:22:31	03:22:10	99
	Gurutze Frades Larralde	ESP	n/a	10:13:14	01:02:51	05:37:42	03:19:08	(111)
6	Lena Holmgren	SWE	n/a	10:13:53	01:06:07	05:29:07	03:21:23	(111)
7	Emma Graaf	SWE	n/a	10:19:00	00:59:24	05:27:51	03:41:13	126
8	Maki Nishiuchi	JPN	n/a	10:23:56	00:53:42	05:36:48	03:47:54	138
	Amy Forshaw	GBR	n/a	10:30:08	01:03:27	05:39:24	03:33:22	150
	Vanessa Pereira	POR	n/a	10:44:57	01:02:41	05:43:14	03:45:26	161
9	Venla Koivula	FIN	n/a	11:14:56	01:00:38	05:32:24	04:15:48	(165)
	Ewa Bugdol	POL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Kaisa Lehtonen	FIN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Hanna Maksimova	BLR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Chino Nishimura	JPN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Mauren Solano	CRC	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Annie Thoren	SWE	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on the Ironman-distance results, Dirk Bockel is a step above the rest of the field. I hope that he has recovered from the injuries that he was dealing with in the last years – too often he had one good result and then had to take some time off. He is challenged by a long list of European athletes such as Henrik Hyldelund (last year’s winner of IM Copenhagen), Patrik Nilsson (winner of IM Malaysia), Joe Skipper (having just delivered a fantastic race at IM Texas) and Martin Jensen (hopefully recovered from his injury after Challenge Dubai) and legends such as Ronnie Schildknecht or Rasmus Henning. Australia is represented Joe Gambles, Peter Robertson and Josh Amberger. If all these athletes actually start, it’ll be a very interesting race!

• Dirk Bockel: 34% (2-1)
• Henrik Hyldelund: 12% (7-1)
• Patrik Nilsson: 12% (7-1)
• Ronnie Schildknecht: 10% (9-1)
• Joe Gambles: 7% (13-1)
• Cyril Viennot: 7% (13-1)
• Rasmus Henning: 7% (14-1)
• Joe Skipper: 5% (18-1)
• Martin Jensen: 3% (37-1)

Female Race Participants

Mary Beth Ellis is the clear favorite – it’ll be interesting to see if she’ll actually start and what form she’ll be in after her recent switch back to Brett Sutton coaching. Behind MBE, there are a number of Swedish athletes that would love to keep the title in their home country. Ariane Monticelli is the only notable non-European athlete in the field (other than MBE).

• Mary Beth Ellis: 70% (1-1)
• Asa Lundstroem: 18% (4-1)
• Ariane Monticeli: 5% (19-1)
• Eva Nystroem: 4% (24-1)
• Camilla Lindholm: 2% (50-1)

Here is a look at the top Kona contenders after IM Brasil (end of May).

Male

At this point, the male race looks is a dead heat between the last two year’s winners, Frederik Van Lierde and Sebastian Kienle. The statistical “front runner status” will be decided when they face off in Frankfurt – but regardless of that result they will both be strong contenders for this year’s Kona win.

Brent McMahon’s two sub-8 IMs (even on fast courses in Arizona and Brasil) have pit him in a good position to at least content for a podium spot. Ivan Rana has added a good IM South Africa to his resume and has enough time to focus on Kona. Craig Alexander, Pete Jacobs and Andreas Raelert are included on the strength of their previous Kona results while Nils Frommhold is one who could surprise if he continues his development over the full distance.

• Frederik Van Lierde: 24% (3-1)
• Sebastian Kienle: 24% (3-1)
• Brent McMahon: 9% (10-1)
• Ivan Rana: 7% (13-1)
• Craig Alexander: 4% (26-1)
• Pete Jacobs: 3% (29-1)
• Andreas Raelert: 3% (30-1)
• Nils Frommhold: 3% (31-1)

Most notable athletes missing in this list? Jan Frodeno has almost unlimited potential – but still needs to have a “good IM” – maybe Frankfurt? The US hopes don’t have good statistical chances: Andy Potts, Tim O’Donnell, Ben Hoffman or Matt Hanson are all at less than 1%. Jordan Rapp only has an outside chance to qualify after his DNF in Texas (even a win in a P-2000 race would probably leave him just short) and Andrew Starykowicz seems to focus on Challenge Roth this year.

Female

On the female side, Mirinda Carfrae is the clear favorite to defend her title. Rachel Joyce and Daniela Ryf (also starting in Frankfurt) are her strongest challengers.

These are followed by a couple of experienced athletes: Meredith Kessler, Caroline Steffen, Linsey Corbin (still looking to qualify after two DNSs in Regional Championships) and Leanda Cava would need a big step forward to a contend for a Kona win this year.

• Mirinda Carfrae: 41% (1-1)
• Rachel Joyce: 20% (4-1)
• Daniela Ryf: 12% (7-1)
• Meredith Kessler: 7% (13-1)
• Caroline Steffen: 5% (19-1)
• Linsey Corbin: 3% (36-1)
• Leanda Cave: 2% (46-1)

As always, there is a ton of athletes that could content for a Top5 or better. Among these, I would pick Jodie Swallow and Angela Naeth as serious podium contenders. But sometimes Kona rookies have a great first year and maybe Mel Hauschildt, Susie Cheetham or Annabel Luxford could also play a factor.

Update June 10th: Fredrik Croneborg announced on Twitter that he has a slight injury and won’t be able to start in Cairns.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2011	Chris McCormack (AUS)	08:15:56	Rebekah Keat (AUS)	09:26:31
2012	David Dellow (AUS)	08:15:04	Carrie Lester (AUS)	09:21:00
2013	Luke McKenzie (AUS)	08:17:43	Liz Blatchford (AUS)	09:19:51
2014	Cameron Brown (NZL)	08:20:15	Liz Blatchford (AUS)	09:16:58

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Cameron Brown	NZL	00:55:16	04:36:20	02:44:54	08:20:15
2	Tim Van Berkel	AUS	00:52:11	04:39:35	02:48:15	08:23:23
3	Peter Robertson	AUS	00:50:34	04:41:13	02:58:08	08:33:26

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Liz Blatchford	AUS	00:52:47	05:13:09	03:06:57	09:16:58
2	Melanie Burke	NZL	01:06:23	05:00:37	03:12:00	09:22:53
3	Asa Lundstroem	SWE	01:04:41	05:08:06	03:09:03	09:25:56

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:15:04	David Dellow	2012-06-02
Swim	overall	00:43:48	Clayton Fettell	2011-06-05
Bike	overall	04:21:52	Luke McKenzie	2013-06-01
Run	overall	02:44:24	Tim Van Berkel	2013-06-01
Total	female	09:16:58	Liz Blatchford	2014-06-08
Swim	female	00:52:47	Liz Blatchford	2014-06-08
Bike	female	05:00:37	Melanie Burke	2014-06-08
Bike	female	05:00:37	Belinda Harper	2012-06-02
Run	female	03:06:57	Liz Blatchford	2014-06-08

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Cairns is 03:20.

Race Adjustments for IM Cairns

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2011	01:30	01:09	04:20	01:47	12	01:30	01:09	04:20	01:47
2012	09:39	-01:17	06:56	-00:06	20	05:34	-00:04	05:38	00:51
2013	00:03	-02:09	07:36	-03:20	14	03:44	-00:46	06:17	-00:33
2014	02:09	-02:48	04:55	02:45	13	03:20	-01:16	05:57	00:17

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Cairns is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 100.000 US$, paying ten deep.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	1	Cameron Brown	NZL	08:24:18	08:30:08	00:52:21	04:35:15	02:51:42	16
2	2	Luke McKenzie	AUS	08:28:06	08:39:15	00:49:56	04:28:26	03:04:44	46
3	3	James Cunnama	ZAF	08:29:59	08:35:31	00:50:54	04:35:05	02:58:59	35
4	6	Courtney Ogden	AUS	08:38:35	08:40:18	00:52:03	04:40:11	03:01:21	50
5	5	Fredrik Croneborg	SWE	08:41:33	08:47:53	00:53:28	04:47:06	02:55:59	76
6	4	Dylan McNeice	NZL	08:41:35	08:51:49	00:46:50	04:45:58	03:03:47	90
7	10	Luke Martin	AUS	08:53:15	08:59:35	00:53:37	04:49:24	03:05:13	124
8	7	Brian Fuller	AUS	08:54:39	09:02:02	00:52:57	04:45:05	03:11:38	136
9	12	Simon Billeau	FRA	08:54:48	08:55:43	00:56:01	04:38:57	03:14:50	111
10	13	Simon Cochrane	NZL	08:58:14	09:09:28	00:53:06	04:53:32	03:06:36	168
11	8	Luke Whitmore	AUS	09:02:05	09:08:43	00:56:14	04:56:04	03:04:47	(164)
12	11	Daniel Brown	AUS	10:47:17	11:04:23	01:06:13	05:31:16	04:04:47	(459)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	21	Liz Blatchford	AUS	09:13:59	09:17:12	00:52:02	05:08:21	03:08:36	8
2	22	Gina Crawford	NZL	09:19:22	09:23:34	00:53:22	05:08:50	03:12:10	16
3	23	Beth Gerdes	USA	09:30:50	09:47:01	01:03:43	05:14:58	03:07:09	53
4	25	Rebecca Preston	AUS	09:37:33	09:36:55	00:59:25	05:13:28	03:19:40	37
5	24	Michelle Bremer	NZL	09:42:42	09:47:49	00:59:13	05:11:57	03:26:32	56
6	33	Christie Sym	AUS	09:52:51	10:14:59	00:59:59	05:14:06	03:33:46	(113)
7	28	Kym Coogan	AUS	09:55:13	10:04:59	00:57:50	05:18:19	03:34:04	(96)
8	32	Marie Sorrell	NZL	09:58:59	10:14:49	01:00:24	05:20:16	03:33:19	(113)
9	27	Larisa Marsh	NZL	10:06:01	10:15:52	01:01:58	05:21:06	03:37:56	115
10	31	Ange Castle	AUS	10:11:40	10:27:53	01:07:34	05:19:13	03:39:52	(146)
11	30	Kate Bruck	USA	10:16:18	10:32:35	01:08:17	05:36:28	03:26:33	(150)
12	29	Jana Candrova	CZE	10:24:50	10:31:44	01:06:15	05:32:00	03:41:34	149
	26	Sarah Crowley	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

KPR Situation

Cameron Brown (4.545) is already safe for a slot, and Frederik Croneborg (3.975) just needs to slightly improve his score to also be safe. Behind these two, there are Dylan MacNeice (3.025) and Luke McKenzie (2.450) within a reasonable distance of my projected July cutoff of 3.800 points. James Cunnama (1.725) can also get close, but will need another score in addition to Cairns.

On the female side, only Beth Gerdes is still hunting for KPR points. She has already scored 4.515 points with some great results in Western Australia (4th in 9:04) and Melbourne (5th in 9:05) but is still short of the roughly 5.100 points that will be needed for a July slot. She has to improve her score from Malaysia (5th = 720) which would get bumped from her total score and needs at least a podium spot (3rd = 1280) to get close for a July slot. Liz Blatchford (6.170) and Gina Crawford (7.880) are already safe, and the others are probably too far back (Michelle Bremer with 2.000 has the best score).

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Cam Brown is the defending champion and the clear favorite for the win. Luke McKenzie and James Cunnama are looking for a good race after a few sub-par results.

• Cameron Brown: 42% (1-1)
• Luke McKenzie: 23% (3-1)
• James Cunnama: 14% (6-1)
• Courtney Ogden: 11% (8-1)
• Dylan McNeice: 7% (14-1)
• Fredrik Croneborg: 3% (39-1)

Female Race Participants

The female race is a toss-up between two-time defending champion Liz Blatchford and Gina Crawford. Behind these two, Beth Gerdes looks the favorite for the remaining podium spot.

• Gina Crawford: 44% (1-1)
• Liz Blatchford: 42% (1-1)
• Beth Gerdes: 9% (11-1)
• Rebecca Preston: 3% (37-1)
• Michelle Bremer: 2% (55-1)

Race Conditions

As usual, the conditions in Brasil were fast, especially on the bike. A bike adjustment of 17:40 leads to a total adjustment of 22:14, a little bit slower than last year, but still a bit quicker than the new course rating of 17:48.

Male Race Results

After the swim Marino had to make up some time to the front, but a monster 4:11 bike ride (the forth fastest ever) gave him a six minute lead into T2. During the run it looked as if Tim O’Donnell would be able to close the gap, but he never got closer than 36 seconds. In the end Marino won by 2 minutes over TO and another minute over Brent McMahon. Igor Amorelli also finished under 8 hours but had to settle for 4th place.

As the winner of the Regional Championships, Marino receives an automatic qualifier slot for Kona. He has stated before that he doesn’t want to return to Kona, but having qualified in May may be a reason to reconsider. (If he declines his slot, it will not roll down.) Tim and Igor should also be safe for a July slot, Brent and Matt Trautmann had a safe slot before the race. Ty Butterfield, Kyle Buckingham and Guilherme Manocchio will need more points for a slot.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Marino Vanhoenacker	BEL	00:48:31	04:11:23	02:49:38	07:53:44	-11:00	US$ 30000
2	Timothy O’Donnell	USA	00:47:03	04:19:26	02:45:52	07:55:56	-21:48	US$ 15000
3	Brent McMahon	CAN	00:47:02	04:19:01	02:47:08	07:56:55	12:57	US$ 8000
4	Igor Amorelli	BRA	00:47:01	04:19:23	02:49:05	07:59:36	-19:29	US$ 6500
5	Tyler Butterfield	BMU	00:48:17	04:18:05	02:48:54	08:05:22	-08:29	US$ 5000
6	Matt Trautman	ZAF	00:52:21	04:25:19	02:44:31	08:06:29	01:10	US$ 3500
7	Kyle Buckingham	ZAF	00:48:29	04:26:05	02:50:30	08:09:33	-04:00	US$ 2500
8	Mike Aigroz	SUI	00:48:17	04:26:17	02:54:42	08:13:22	-13:35	US$ 2000
9	Guilherme Manocchio	BRA	00:50:29	04:22:39	02:58:18	08:17:02	-12:45	US$ 1500
10	Frank Silvestrin	BRA	00:48:16	04:29:46	02:56:22	08:20:07	-24:10	US$ 1000
11	Anton Blokhin	UKR	00:48:26	04:34:22	03:03:00	08:30:29	08:23
12	Mario De Elias	ARG	00:52:12	04:44:01	02:52:09	08:32:59	-09:27
13	Nick Baldwin	SEY	00:50:24	04:37:56	03:01:58	08:36:08	05:09
14	Thiago Vinhal	BRA	00:50:06	04:56:16	02:51:06	08:41:10	04:00
15	Ivan Risti	ITA	00:48:20	04:36:32	03:19:50	08:49:43	11:26
16	Marcel Bischof	GER	00:58:10	04:39:57	03:10:48	08:54:22	02:41
17	Paul Matthews	AUS	00:46:58	04:23:53	03:40:22	08:55:04	50:55
18	Andres Darricau	Arg	00:53:34	04:49:39	03:12:38	09:02:50	-42:25
19	Edmilson Pereira	BRA	00:50:30	04:53:19	03:13:19	09:03:41	-09:45
20	Alejo Badino	ARG	00:48:28	04:56:42	03:15:38	09:07:02	n/a
21	Christian Carletto	ARG	00:55:28	05:00:24	03:14:48	09:20:46	-01:07
22	Luan Ortiz Silva	BRA	00:52:00	05:04:17	03:50:18	09:53:04	n/a
	Karol Dzalaj	SVK	00:55:32	04:33:00		DNF
	Ciro Violin	BRA	00:53:41	04:49:09		DNF
	Fabio Carvalho	BRA	00:48:27	05:00:50		DNF
	Santiago Ascenco	BRA	01:06:26	04:43:10		DNF
	Sergio Carrettoni	ARG	01:20:23	08:39:45		DNF
	Per Bittner	GER	00:48:19			DNF
	Felipe De Oliveira Manente	BRA	00:56:58			DNF
	Jason Britton	CAN	00:56:59			DNF
	Damon Barnett	USA	00:59:21			DNF
	Gaston Duran	ARG	01:01:36			DNF

Female Race Results

Haley Chura was leading the race in T1 and T2. In addition to her, Liz Lyles, Amanda Stevens, Tine Deckers and Asa Lundstoem were in the lead on the run, but eventually Ariane Monticelli won the race with the first sub-3 women’s marathon of the 2015 season. Liz finished 83 seconds back in second place, Amanda took third another 56 seconds back. Tine finished fourth, Laurel Wassner ran her way to fifth, Haley finished sixth and Asa finished 9th after struggling with stomach issues on the last part of the run.

Ariane receives an automatic qualifier slot, and Liz is now also safe (she had a lot of points after her 7th place in Kona and just needed to validate). Behind these two, Amanda Stevens and Haley Chura are on the bubble. Mareen Hufe and Asa Lundstroem were not able to score enough points to secure a slot but are close. Ashley Clifford is also close but had a frustrating DNF.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Ariane Monticeli	BRA	01:00:18	04:57:59	02:56:28	08:59:08	-26:05	US$ 30000
2	Elizabeth Lyles	USA	00:57:49	04:54:31	03:03:04	09:00:31	-01:45	US$ 15000
3	Amanda Stevens	USA	00:51:15	04:57:32	03:05:47	09:01:27	-12:04	US$ 8000
4	Tine Deckers	BEL	00:59:15	04:50:19	03:14:03	09:08:29	03:44	US$ 6500
5	Laurel Wassner	USA	00:52:51	05:03:11	03:07:27	09:09:47	-08:40	US$ 5000
6	Haley Chura	USA	00:49:35	04:58:29	03:20:47	09:14:03	-00:34	US$ 3500
7	Mareen Hufe	GER	01:00:27	04:51:32	03:17:09	09:14:50	00:40	US$ 2500
8	Karen Thibodeau	CAN	00:53:03	05:05:09	03:11:47	09:15:08	-15:23	US$ 2000
9	Asa Lundstroem	SWE	01:01:12	04:48:36	03:29:08	09:23:35	14:12	US$ 1500
10	Ana Lidia Borba	BRA	01:01:08	05:11:49	03:23:44	09:42:27	-12:24	US$ 1000
11	Lucie Reed	CZE	00:52:47	05:05:14	03:45:09	09:48:13	31:12
	Astrid Ganzow	GER	01:01:22	04:51:35		DNF
	Mariana Andrade	BRA	01:00:11	05:08:53		DNF
	Laura Barrena	ARG	01:17:26	06:02:32		DNF
	Ashley Clifford	USA	00:55:38			DNF

Challenge Denmark is a new race indicating Challenge’s continuing commitment to the Danish triathlon market (after loosing the races in Copenhagen and Aarhus when WTC bought the company running these races). Race director Claus Vesterby (husband of Pro athlete Michelle Vesterby) is trying to build a great race that also appeals to the family of athletes – the race is run around the original Legoland in Billund, Denmark. In addition to the full distance race covered in this post, there is another one over the half distance with strong athletes such as Martin Jensen, Dirk Bockel or Mary Beth Ellis on the start list.

As this is the first time the race is run, there are no expected times.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Overall
1	Christophe Bastie	FRA	n/a	08:53:59	00:53:35	04:43:23	03:12:12	100
2	Dejan Patrcevic	CRO	n/a	08:55:26	00:52:47	05:02:21	02:56:56	108
3	Sergio Marques	POR	n/a	08:56:27	00:54:59	05:00:18	02:58:36	113
4	Chris Fischer	DEN	n/a	08:57:11	00:53:14	04:50:28	03:04:16	117
5	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	n/a	09:00:02	00:55:15	04:53:55	03:05:28	128
6	Georg Potrebitsch	GER	n/a	09:06:59	00:49:50	04:57:08	03:15:31	(151)
7	Dirk Wijnalda	NED	n/a	09:08:23	00:57:07	04:58:17	03:02:42	162
8	Thijs Koelen	NED	n/a	09:15:37	00:52:33	04:52:31	03:14:57	(192)
9	Jens Kaiser	GER	n/a	09:17:45	00:58:36	04:54:10	03:16:13	(198)
10	Marin Koceic	CRO	n/a	09:24:49	00:52:18	04:59:15	03:12:07	(239)
11	Eneko Elosegui	ESP	n/a	09:33:49	00:58:52	04:55:50	03:24:57	(269)
12	Jesse Vondracek	USA	n/a	09:34:45	00:55:25	05:11:16	03:17:48	273
13	Stefan Eichheimer	GER	n/a	09:39:04	00:57:36	04:56:28	03:18:39	(293)
14	Steven Osborne	GBR	n/a	09:43:13	00:57:25	05:25:07	03:10:51	(305)
15	Armin Atzlinger	AUT	n/a	10:03:58	00:54:29	05:17:14	03:32:00	(372)
	Blaz Brecko	SLO	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Anders Christensen	DNK	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Markus Hoermann	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Magnus Magnoy	SWE	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Dominic Rohan-Gates	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Peter Seidel	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Christian Woelsted	DEN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Overall
1	Beate Goertz	GER	n/a	09:57:58	01:04:49	05:12:56	03:27:50	81
2	Carolin Lehrieder	GER	n/a	10:08:11	00:57:49	05:31:11	03:24:41	(103)
3	Kristin Lie	NOR	n/a	10:13:41	01:11:55	05:18:24	03:31:06	110
4	Celia Kuch	GER	n/a	10:18:34	01:03:10	05:25:20	03:37:26	124
5	Kathrin Walther	GER	n/a	10:20:34	01:00:03	05:27:37	03:40:41	131
6	Louise Rundqvist	SWE	n/a	10:28:03	01:06:25	05:31:10	03:30:49	(146)
7	Vanessa Pereira	POR	n/a	10:44:57	01:02:41	05:43:14	03:45:26	159
	Susanne Svendsen	DEN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Dirk Wijnalda: 27% (3-1)
• Georg Potrebitsch: 23% (3-1)
• Chris Fischer: 23% (3-1)
• Sergio Marques: 10% (9-1)
• Christophe Bastie: 8% (12-1)
• Dejan Patrcevic: 7% (14-1)
• Petr Vabrousek: 2% (40-1)

Female Race Participants

• Beate Goertz: 25% (3-1)
• Carolin Lehrieder: 23% (3-1)
• Kathrin Walther: 18% (4-1)
• Celia Kuch: 13% (7-1)
• Kristin Lie: 11% (8-1)
• Louise Rundqvist: 9% (10-1)